MPH Fall 09 Sample Size Calculation nQuery Advisor Judith L. Jacobsen, MSc. PhD. www.statcon.dk Choose MPHepi [email protected] Agenda • Sample size calculation program • Two worked examples – Epidemiology – Continuous data – Binary data – Proportions – Survival MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 2 Programs SPSS cannot do sample size! • Many specific programs – nQuery – Pass – Power and precision • I will show nQuery Advisor® MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 3 1 MPH Fall 09 nQuery Advisor® Means • Tests Confidence Intervals Equivalence Tests Proportions • Tests Confidence Intervals Equivalence Tests For paired proportions For two independent proportions • Regression • Tests and Confidence Intervals Logistic regression (one or multiple covariates) Linear regression Multiple regression Multiple regression (with partialling) Tests and confidence intervals for regression slopes in one and two sample designs MPH Fall 09 • Nonparametric • Tests Wilcoxon/Mann-Whitney ranksum test (continuous outcome or ordered scale) • Survival © Judith L. Jacobsen 4 How to Use • Formulate the study design, outcome, analysis. Use the nQuery Advisor Study Goal and Design box to select the right table MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 5 Opening Screen MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 6 2 MPH Fall 09 • Use nQuery Advisor's spreadsheet-style tables to specify analysis parameters and expected differences. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 7 Go Ahead • Enter sample size to have nQuery Advisor compute power (or interval width) or specify power to compute sample size • • Additional columns with alternative values for effect size can be entered for sensitivity analysis. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 8 Screen MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 9 3 MPH Fall 09 Evaluate • A range of scenarios with nQuery Advisor's tables and plots Choose the sample size which best satisfies your goals and plausible parameter values • nQuery Advisor then writes up the sample size decision • making it easy to report the sample size decision in the correct language and format MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 10 Evaluate Plot MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 11 Justification • All ready for the protocol MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 12 4 MPH Fall 09 Epidemiology Example Sample Size for confidence interval for odds ratio • Sample size required for an experiment to estimate an odds ratio with a confidence interval of specified width • Study plan: to evaluate an educational program for expectant mothers. – The educational program attempts to reduce the risk of preterm birth among expectant mothers who are seen in county prenatal clinics. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 13 Plan • Initial plan: – randomly assign 300 pregnant women to the control group and 300 to the educational intervention group. • Question: – Will the 95% two-sided confidence interval for the odds ratio be likely to be narrow enough to demonstrate the effectiveness of the educational intervention? • nQuery Advisor® can provide sample size and interval width calculations for the odds ratio in a two-sample design. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 14 Step 1 • Select File ... New, and in the Study Goal and Design Box • Select Proportions, Two Groups, and Confidence Interval and select Confidence interval for log odds ratio • In the table, fill in the desired confidence level MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 15 5 MPH Fall 09 Information • Previous studies found preterm birth rates of 7-9%. – enter an expected proportion of pre-term births of 8% for the control group • Specify either the expected proportion for the intervention group, or the odds ratio, or the ln odds ratio. – The intervention would be of interest if it reduced the rate of preterm births enough to produce an odds ratio of 0.5. • Specify the planned sample size for each group and solve for the interval width or specify the desired interval width and solve for the required sample size per group. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 16 • We enter a sample size of 300 per group and request the sample size statement to see what the expected confidence limits on the odds ratio will be. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 17 Step 2 • A sample of 300 women per group would be expected to result in a confidence interval which includes 1.0 • In the second column we request the sample size which will shorten the distance to the limit for the ln odds ratio to 0.55 – the answer 491 suggests that we study 500 women per group which would result in expected 95% limits of 0.29 and 0.86 on an observed odds ratio of 0.5 • In additional columns you can assess the expected confidence interval width for other possible preterm rates for the control group MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 18 6 MPH Fall 09 Step 2 Graph MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 19 Justification Statement • Sample Size for confidence interval for odds ratio • nQuery Advisor® provides tables, plots, and standardized sample size justification statements which can be printed directly or copied into your protocol MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 20 Survival Example • Sample size required – 90% power for a comparison of two year survival after surgery for a brain tumour – patients treated with a new combination of chemotherapy and radiation versus those treated with standard methods • The study design calls for randomization to one of two parallel groups – primary outcome is time to death due to any cause. – Accrual occurs uniformly over the two year study, with no losses to follow up expected. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 21 7 MPH Fall 09 Survival Analysis • log-rank test is planned – two-sided 5% significance level. In previous studies with the standard method about 2/3 of patients survived six months and 20% survived one year following surgery. The new therapy would be considered markedly better if it increased six months survival by about 15% MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 22 Step 1 • Select File ... New, and in the Study Goal and Design Box, select Survival, Two Groups, and Test. • Select Log-rank test, user specified survival rates, accrual, dropouts simulation. • Fill in the desired significance level and the number of periods for which survival, accrual, and dropout parameters will be specified • Select Compute effect size from the Assistants menu or click on the button marked /δ\ . MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 23 Step 1 Graph MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 24 8 MPH Fall 09 Step 2 • Enter end of period times, accrual percentages, hazard rates or proportion expected to survive to the end of the period, and exponential dropout rates for each period. • Use Edit Row Names to label the rows and click on Plot. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 25 Step 2 Graph MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 26 Step 3 • Select Plot survival vs time to obtain a plot of the expected survival curves. • You may edit either the plot or the sidetable to obtain the desired survival curves. • When the side table is completed and saved, return to the main table, specify the number of simulated experiments, a random seed for the simulation, and a preliminary choice of sample size. MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 27 9 MPH Fall 09 Step 3 Graph MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen 28 Summary Sample size calculations • Canot be done in SPSS • SAS and nQuery + a multitude of other programs • Java Applets for power & sample size • http://www.math.uiowa.edu/~rlenth/Power/ MPH Fall 09 © Judith L. Jacobsen © Judith L. Jacobsen 29 10
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