1. No category

The Australian Economy and
Financial Markets
Chart Pack October 2014
The Australian Economy and Financial Markets
Contents
Graphs
World Economy Australian GDP Growth and Inflation Household Sector Business Sector Credit and Money Factors of Production and Labour Market Regions and Industry Government Commodity Prices Balance of Payments and External Position Interest Rates Share Markets Bond Issuance Equity Raisings and Business Financing Exchange Rates Banking Indicators 1–3
4
5–6
7–8
9
10–11
12–13
14
15
16–17
18–22
23–24
25
26
27–28
29–30
World Economy
GDP Growth – China and India
GDP Growth – World
Year-ended
%
%
Major trading partners*
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
2002
2006
2010
-4
2014
%
China
6
World**
-4
Year-ended
%
10
10
5
5
India
0
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
*
Weighted using Australian export shares
**
PPP-weighted; accounts for 87 per cent of world GDP
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
GDP Growth – East Asia
GDP Growth – Advanced Economies
Year-ended
%
US
4
Euro area
%
%
4
10
Year-ended
%
10
Middle-income*
0
0
5
5
-4
0
0
Japan
-4
High-income**
-8
-12
2002
Source:
2005
Thomson Reuters
2008
2011
2014
-8
-5
-12
-10
-5
2002
2005
2008
2011
*
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted
**
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weighted
2014
-10
Sources: CEIC Data; IMF; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
1
World Economy
Inflation – China and India
Core Inflation* – Advanced Economies
Year-ended
%
%
US**
Year-ended
%
%
India**
2
2
1
1
Euro area
0
8
8
4
4
0
Japan
-1
-1
-2
2002
*
**
2005
2008
2011
2014
-2
0
-4
Excluding food and energy, and for the euro area also excluding
alcohol and tobacco
Core price index for personal consumption expenditures
Source:
2002
*
Consumer price index
**
Wholesale price index
%
%
2014
-4
%
Middle-income*
10
10
US
8
8
4
4
6
Japan
Source:
2011
Year-ended
%
Euro area
2002
2008
Inflation – East Asia
Unemployment Rate – Advanced Economies
2
2005
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
Thomson Reuters
6
0
China*
2005
2008
High-income**
0
2011
2014
2
-4
2002
Thomson Reuters
2005
0
2008
2011
*
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted
**
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weighted
2014
-4
Sources: CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Chart Pack | October 2014
2
World Economy
China – Monthly Activity Indicators*
Nominal growth
Retail sales
%
3
0
0
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
2006
2008
2010
2012
M(m²)
Log scale
140
120
120
60
100
30
2014
80
2006
RBA estimates prior to February 2011
2010
*
RBA estimates
**
Trend
2014
2010
2014
15
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
China – Output Indicators
China – Credit and Money Supply Growth
Year-ended
%
Floor space sold**
2007 average = 100
%
Fixed asset investment
*
Prices
%
3
%
China – Residential Property Market*
index
%
Log scale, 2005 average = 100
index
Industrial production
Credit
30
30
index
Crude steel
200
200
Rail freight
20
20
100
100
Electricity
consumption
M2 money supply
10
2006
Source:
2008
CEIC Data
2010
2012
2014
10
50
2004
2009
2014 2004
2009
2014
50
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
3
Australian GDP Growth and Inflation
GDP Growth
%
%
Year-ended
Consumer Price Inflation*
%
5
4
4
2
2
0
0
Quarterly
-2
1994
Source:
1998
2002
2006
2010
5
Year-ended
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
-2
2014
%
(seasonally adjusted)
-1
ABS
0
Quarterly
1994
*
1998
2002
2006
2010
-1
2014
Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 and
adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
Sources: ABS; RBA
Underlying Inflation*
%
%
Weighted median
5
5
Trimmed mean
4
Non-tradables and Tradables Inflation
%
Non-tradables*
3
2
2
CPI excl volatile items
1
*
1998
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 and
adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
Sources: ABS; RBA
%
Year-ended
4
44
4
2
22
2
00
0
0
Quarterly
1
1994
Tradables**
4
3
0
%%
(seasonally adjusted)
-2
2004
2009
-2 -2
2014
2004
2009
2014
*
Excluding deposit & loan facilities to June 2011
**
Excluding volatile items (fruit, vegetables & automotive fuel) & tobacco
-2
Sources: ABS; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
4
Household Sector
Retail Sales Growth
%
Household Saving Ratio*
%
Per cent of household disposable income
%
Values
%
(year-ended*)
8
8
4
4
Volumes
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
(year-ended)
%
%
Volumes (quarterly)
0
0
-5
2002
*
2006
-5
2014
2010
Percentage change over year to latest three months
Source:
ABS
-5
1989
*
2004
2009
-5
2014
ABS
Private Residential Building Approvals
’000
1999
Net of depreciation
Source:
Monthly
1994
Consumer Sentiment
’000
Average since 1980 = 100
index
index
Total
15
15
120
120
10
10
100
100
5
80
80
0
2014
60
Detached
houses
5
Higher-density housing
0
1994
Source:
ABS
1999
2004
2009
1994
Source:
1999
2004
2009
60
2014
Westpac and Melbourne Institute
Chart Pack | October 2014
5
Household Sector
Household Finances*
Household Wealth and Liabilities*
Per cent of household disposable income
%
Debt
%
Interest paid
150
14
125
12
Per cent of annual household disposable income
%
Net worth
600
600
Dwellings
450
100
10
75
8
50
6
25
1994
*
2004
2014
1994
2004
2014
4
150
0
1998
*
$’000
750
750
Sydney
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Household liabilities exclude the liabilities of unincorporated
enterprises; disposable income is after tax and before the deduction
of interest payments
Melbourne
$b
Total
20
20
15
15
Owner-occupiers
550
Australia
450
Brisbane
Housing Loan Approvals
$b
650
Canberra
Perth
450
150
Liabilities
Sources: ABS; RBA
Housing Prices
550
300
Financial assets
Sources: ABS; RBA
650
450
300
Household sector excludes unincorporated enterprises; disposable
income is after tax and before the deduction of interest payments
$’000
%
Adelaide
350
10
350
5
250
0
10
5
Investors
Regional*
250
2006
*
2010
2014
2010
2014
Excludes apartments; measured as areas outside of capital cities
in mainland states
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
Sources: ABS; RBA
Sources: RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Chart Pack | October 2014
6
Business Sector
Private Non-financial Corporation Profits*
Share of nominal GDP
%
%
Non-mining
12
12
8
8
Mining
4
4
0
1998
*
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjusted
Business Finances
Business credit
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
Interest paid*
Per cent of profits**
60
17
50
14
40
11
30
2002
2008
2014
2002
2008
*
Interest on intermediated debt from Australian-domiciled financial
institutions
**
Profits are private non-financial gross operating surplus (adjusted
for privatisations) and gross mixed income
Business conditions*
2014
ppt
15
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
-30
ppt
ppt
Business confidence*
15
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
-30
%
Sources: ABS; RBA
%
NAB Business Survey
ppt
%
Capacity utilisation
84
84
81
81
78
78
75
75
72
1989
*
1994
1999
2004
2009
72
2014
Net balance; deviation from average since 1989
Sources: NAB; RBA
8
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
7
Business Sector
Capital Expenditure – Mining and Non-mining*
Business Investment*
Share of nominal GDP
%
%
18
18
Nominal, financial year, log scale
$b
Mining
128
128
64
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
2004
2009
2014
Machinery
andthe
equipment
Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers
between
private
1989
*
1994
1999
64
32
32
16
16
8
8
4
4
2
1995
*
and other sectors
Source: ABS
2005
2015
1995
2005
2015
2
Sample of firms' spending plans; dots represent the survey's most
recent estimates for 2014/15 adjusted for historical realised spending
Sources: ABS; RBA
Private Non-residential Building Approvals
Business Investment Components*
Share of nominal GDP
%
$b
Non-mining
%
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
%
Machinery and equipment
8
8
6
6
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
4
Buildings
2
2
Engineering
0
1989
*
1994
1999
2004
2009
Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private
and other sectors
Source: ABS
0
2014
0
1989
Source:
1994
1999
2004
2009
0
2014
ABS
Chart Pack | October 2014
8
Credit and Money
Credit and Broad Money Growth
Year-ended
%
Credit*
Ratio to nominal GDP
%
ratio
15
15
1.4
1.4
10
10
1.1
1.1
5
5
0.8
0.8
0
2014
0.5
ratio
Broad money
Credit
0
1998
2002
2006
2010
Sources: APRA; RBA
1994
*
1999
2004
2009
0.5
2014
Not adjusted for breaks
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Credit Growth by Sector
Monetary Aggregates Growth
Year-ended
Year-ended
%
%
18
18
20
20
12
12
10
10
6
6
0
%
Housing
M3
Business
Currency
0
1998
Sources: APRA; RBA
2002
2006
%
0
Personal
2010
0
2014
-10
2002
2006
2010
-10
2014
Sources: APRA; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
9
Factors of Production and Labour Market
Factors of Production
%
Private sector
%
Capital stock*
5
5
5
3
3
%
Wage Price Index Growth
%
Annual growth
Working-age population
%
2.0
5
4
44
4
3
33
3
2
22
2
11
1
Quarterly
1
1.5
1.0
1.0
12/13
0
82/83
88/89
94/95
00/01
06/07
%
Public sector
55
Year-ended
2.0
1.5
%%
2002
Source:
2008
00
2014
2002
2008
2014
0
ABS
* Excluding livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs
Sources: ABS; RBA
Capital Ratios*
Unit Labour Costs Growth
1979/80 = 100
index
index
200
200
Capital-labour ratio
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
Capital-output ratio
100
100
80
82 / 83
*
88 / 89
94 / 95
00 / 01
06 / 07
80
12 / 13
Capital stock excludes livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership
transfer costs
Sources: ABS; RBA
Non-farm, year-ended
%
%
Unit labour costs
5
5
0
0
%
%
Average earnings
per hour
5
5
0
0
Labour productivity per hour
-5
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
-5
2014
Sources: ABS; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
10
Factors of Production and Labour Market
Employment and Participation Rates
%
Employment and Hours Worked*
%
2007 average = 100
index
Participation rate
64
index
Employment
64
110
61
110
61
105
58
Average hours worked
58
100
Employment to working-age population
55
1994
Source:
1998
2002
2006
2010
105
Total hours worked
55
2014
ABS
100
95
2008
*
2010
2012
2014
95
Smoothed lines are 13-period Henderson trends
Sources: ABS; RBA
Unemployment Rate
%
%
10
Job Vacancies and Advertisements
Per cent of labour force
%
%
Advertisements
10
(ANZ survey)
2.0
8
8
6
6
4
4
1.0
2
2014
0.5
2
1994
Source:
1998
ABS
2002
2006
2010
2.0
1.5
1.5
Vacancies*
(ABS survey)
1.0
2002
*
2006
2010
0.5
2014
This survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009
Sources: ABS; ANZ
Chart Pack | October 2014
11
Regions and Industry
State Share of Output*
%
New South Wales
35
35
30
30
Victoria
25
20
25
20
Queensland
15
15
Western Australia
10
10
South Australia
5
5
Tasmania
0
92 / 93
*
97 / 98
02 / 03
07 / 08
0
12 / 13
Nominal
Source:
State Final Demand Growth
%
Year-ended
%
10
10
Victoria
5
5
0
New South Wales
-5
%
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
Western Australia
%
10
Trend
%
Tasmania
8
7
South Australia
New South Wales
6
5
%
0
0
8
-5
7
-10
Tasmania*
1994
*
1999
-5
2004
2009
-10
2014
Adjusted for the purchase and sale of ferries in 2002
Sources: ABS; RBA
5
Victoria
4
4
Queensland
3
2
10
South Australia
5
6
5
-5
15
Queensland
%
State Unemployment Rates
0
%
15
-5
ABS
%
3
Western Australia
2006
Source:
2010
2014
2006
2010
2014
2
ABS
Chart Pack | October 2014
12
Regions and Industry
Industry Share of Output*
%
%
Other business services**
Manufacturing
14
14
40
Financial and
insurance services
30
Retail and wholesale trade
10
Industry Share of Business Investment*
%
20
6
6
Mining
1993
1998
2003
30
Retail and
wholesale trade
20
10
Construction
2
2013
2008
Manufacturing
Agriculture
10
Agriculture
2
40
Mining
Other business
services**
10
Financial and insurance
services
Construction
0
92 / 93
96 / 97
00 / 01
04 / 05
0
12 / 13
08 / 09
*
Nominal gross value added
*
Nominal
**
Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring
and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;
administrative and support services
**
Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring
and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical
services; administrative and support services
Source:
Source:
ABS
ABS
Employment Growth
Contributions
Employment by Industry*
2000 average = 100
index
index
Mining
(2.0%)
300
300
Financial & insurance
services
Other business
services**
(3.6%)
(15.0 %)
200
200
Construction
(9.0%)
100
Manufacturing
(7.9%)
0
2002
100
Retail &
wholesale trade
(14.3%)
2008
2014
2002
2008
2014
*
Figures in parentheses represent share of total employment based
on latest quarterly data
**
Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring
and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;
administrative and support services
Source:
%
0
Year to August 2014, trend
Professional, scientific & technical
Education & training
Other services
Health care & social assistance
Rental, hiring & real estate
Retail trade
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Construction
Transport, postal & warehousing
Media & telecommunications
Accommodation & food services
Manufacturing
Administrative & support
Financial & insurance
Utilities
Arts & recreation
Whosale trade
Mining
Public administration & safety
-50
Source:
-25
0
000
25
50
ABS
ABS
Chart Pack | October 2014
13
Government
Australian Government Budget Balance*
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
State Budget Balances*
%
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
81 / 82
*
87 / 88
93 / 94
99 / 00
05 / 06
11 / 12
-5
17 / 18
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
82 / 83
*
Australian Treasury
%
97 / 98
02 / 03
07 / 08
3
%
Non-financial public sector
30
30
20
2
20
Australian Government
2
Engineering
1
1
10
10
0
0
Building
0
1989
Source:
1994
ABS
1999
2004
2009
-1.5
12 / 13
ABS
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
Total
3
92 / 93
Non-financial Public Sector Net Debt*
Public Construction Work Done
%
87 / 88
Underlying cash balance
Source:
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
1.0
Underlying cash balance
Source:
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
State and local general governments
0
2014
-10
93 / 94
*
98 / 99
03 / 04
08 / 09
-10
13 / 14
Estimates as at the 2014/15 Budget
Source:
Australian Treasury
Chart Pack | October 2014
14
Commodity Prices
Base Metals, Rural and Oil Prices
RBA Index of Commodity Prices
SDR, 2012/13 average = 100
index
index
120
120
Weekly
index
US$/b
Base metals*
220
150
Rural*
Brent oil
100
100
190
80
80
160
100
60
60
130
75
40
40
100
50
20
2014
70
20
1989
Source:
1994
1999
2004
2009
RBA
2006
*
2010
2014
2006
2010
125
2014
25
RBA Index of Commodity Prices sub-indices; SDR terms; 2005
average = 100
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Bulk Commodity Prices
Terms of Trade*
Free on board basis
US$/t
Iron ore
Thermal coal
(LHS)
(LHS)
Coking coal
US$/t
(RHS)
170
350
Spot price*
130
2011/12 average = 100
index
index
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
250
90
150
50
2010
*
Average Australian
export price
2012
2014
2012
2014
2012
2014
50
Iron ore fines, Newcastle thermal coal and premium hard coking coal
Sources: ABS; AFR; Bloomberg; Citigroup; IHS Energy Publishing; Macquarie
Bank; RBA; Thomson Reuters
20
1954
*
1969
1984
1999
20
2014
Annual data are used prior to 1960
Sources: ABS; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
15
Balance of Payments and External Position
Export Volumes
Bulk Commodity Exports
Quarterly, 2011/12 prices, log scale
$b
Resources
$b
Services
40
12
Rural
20
6
Manufacturing
10
2000
2007
2014
2000
2007
2014
3
Quarterly
Mt
Iron ore
170
110
150
100
130
90
110
80
90
70
70
60
50
50
30
Sources: ABS; RBA
2004
2009
2014
2004
2009
$b
Intermediate
Consumption
Annual, share of total values
%
%
30
16
16
30
China
25
20
8
8
Services
Capital
4
Japan
15
10
10
South Korea
US
India
Source:
ABS
2014
2000
2007
20
15
5
2007
25
EU - 27
4
2000
40
Exports by Destination
Import Volumes
2
2014
Sources: ABS; RBA
Quarterly, 2011/12 prices, log scale
$b
Mt
Coal
2014
2
0
2001
Source:
2005
2009
5
0
2013
ABS
Chart Pack | October 2014
16
Balance of Payments and External Position
Current Account Balance
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
Trade balance
Net Capital Inflow*
%
Net income balance
0
-3
-3
-6
-6
Source:
1999
2004
2009
8
Debt
6
4
4
2
2
0
-9
2014
-2
2002
*
Net Foreign Liabilities
Total
60
45
2006
2010
-4
2014
2014 values are year to June quarter
Source:
%
0
Equity
-4
ABS
Per cent of nominal GDP
6
-2
Current account balance
1994
%
8
0
-9
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
ABS
External Position
Composition after hedging, quarterly*
%
$b
60
2 500
45
2 000
30
1 500
1 500
15
1 000
1 000
Gross foreign liabilities
$b
Gross foreign assets
2 500
Foreign currency
Australian dollar
2 000
Debt
30
Equity
15
0
0
-15
1994
Source:
ABS
1999
2004
2009
-15
2014
500
500
0
2004
*
2009
2004
2009
0
2014
Hedge ratios inferred from ABS Foreign Currency Exposure surveys
Sources: ABS; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
17
Interest Rates
Australian Cash Rate and 90-day Bill Yield
%
90-day bill yield
8
%
8
5
5
4
4
7
7
6
6
4
3
3
2004
2006
3
5
4
2
2008
2010
2012
2014
2
Euro area
2
2
1
0
Sources: AFMAData; RBA
2004
*
Australian Cash Rate
2006
2012
2014
0
central banks
9
%
NZ
8
6
2010
Policy Interest Rates – Selected
Advanced Economies
%
Cash rate
2008
Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has
been the money base
%
9
1
Japan*
Source:
%
%
US
3
Cash rate
5
Policy Interest Rates – G3
%
8
6
6
3
6
UK
3
4
0
0
Real cash rate*
-3
1994
*
1998
2002
2006
4
Canada
2
2010
Calculated using average of weighted median and trimmed mean
inflation
Sources: ABS; RBA
-3
2014
Sweden
2
Switzerland
0
2004
2006
Source:
central banks
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
Chart Pack | October 2014
18
Interest Rates
Policy Interest Rates – Asia
%
Thailand
15
10-year Australian Government Bond Yield
%
%
%
5
7
7
4
6
6
3
5
5
2
4
4
1
3
3
0
2014
2
South Korea
Indonesia
12
Malaysia
9
6
India
Taiwan
3
0
2006
Source:
2010
2006
2010
Source:
central banks
Policy Interest Rates – Emerging Markets
%
%
Brazil
20
2002
20
%
15
Russia*
Mexico
10
10
10-year Government Bond Yields
6
5
Poland
0
2004
*
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
On 13 September 2013, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
changed its official policy rate to the rate on its one-week open market
operations, which was left unchanged at the September 2013 meeting
Source:
0
2
2014
%
6
US
5
4
4
3
3
Germany
2
South Africa
5
2010
RBA
5
15
2006
2
1
1
Japan
0
2002
Source:
2006
2010
0
2014
Thomson Reuters
central banks
Chart Pack | October 2014
19
Interest Rates
Spread between Australian 10-year Bond
Yield and the Cash Rate
%
4
US Bond Yields
%
3-5 years
%
%
BBB corporates*
4
9
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
9
AAA corporates*
6
6
3
3
-4
-6
1994
Source:
1999
2004
2009
-6
2014
Swap
0
1998
*
RBA
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Includes financials and non-financials
Sources: Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Bloomberg
bps
Differential between Australian and
US 10-year Government Bond Yields
US Bond Spreads
bps
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
-100
0
1994
1999
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
2004
2009
-100
2014
To US government bonds, 3-5 years
bps
bps
BBB corporates*
800
800
A corporates*
600
600
AAA corporates*
400
400
Swap
200
200
0
1998
*
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Includes financials and non-financials
Sources: Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Bloomberg
Chart Pack | October 2014
20
Interest Rates
Emerging Market Bond Yields
%
%
Australian Bond Yields*
%
%
BBB corporates
Europe
20
20
8
15
8
AA corporates
Latin America
15
6
10
6
10
Asia
5
5
0
1998
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Swap
4
4
Australian Government
2
1998
*
2002
2006
2010
2
2014
Australian Government yields and swap rates are for 3-year maturity.
Corporate bond yields are a weighted average of senior bonds with
remaining maturities of 1 to 5 years; they include financial and
non-financial corporates.
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
Australian Bond Spreads*
Emerging Market Bond Spreads
To US government bonds, duration-matched
bps
bps
1 500
500
1 200
400
900
900
300
600
600
200
300
300
100
bps
Emerging Europe
1 500
Latin America
1 200
Spread over government yields
BBB corporates
1998
2002
2006
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
2010
0
2014
500
400
300
AA corporates
200
A corporates
100
Swap
Asia
0
bps
0
1998
*
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Swap spreads are for 3-year maturity. Corporate bond spreads are a
weighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5
years; they include financial and non-financial corporates.
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
Chart Pack | October 2014
21
Interest Rates
Australian Housing Lending Rates
Average interest rate on variable-rate loans
%
Australian Fixed Interest Rates
%
3-year maturity
%
%
Banks' indicator rate on new loans
10
10
Actual rate on
outstanding loans
8
8
6
6
Cash rate
4
2
1994
1998
2002
2006
4
2010
2
2014
12
Small business
10
10
8
8
6
6
Swap rate
Housing
4
2
Sources: ABS; APRA; Perpetual; RBA
%
12
1994
1998
2002
2006
4
2010
2
2014
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Australian Small Business Interest Rates
Weighted-average outstanding variable rate**
12
%
Australian Business Lending Rates
Average interest rate on outstanding lending
Small business
%
%
12
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
8
8
4
6
6
4
4
Overdraft other security*
%
Cash rate
4
Term loan residential security*
2
1994
1998
*
Indicator rates
**
Including risk margins
2002
2006
2010
2
2014
2
%
Large business
1998
2002
2006
2010
2
2014
Sources: APRA; RBA
Sources: APRA; Canstar; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
22
Share Markets
Major Economies’ Share Price Indices
Australian and World Share Price Indices
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index
400
S&P 500
300
index
400
300
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index
400
US
Euro area
300
300
200
200
index
400
200
200
UK
100
100
MSCI World
ASX 200
100
Japan
100
80
1998
2002
2006
2010
80
2014
40
1998
Australian Share Price Indices
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
Resources
400
300
2006
2010
40
2014
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; RBA; Thomson Reuters
index
600
500
2002
Share Price Indices
index
600
500
400
300
Financials
200
index
1 500
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
Emerging Europe
1 000
1 000
Latin America
500
500
China
200
200
All other sectors
100
100
index
1 500
200
World
100
100
Emerging Asia
60
1998
2002
2006
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
2010
60
2014
40
1998
2002
2006
2010
40
2014
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI
Chart Pack | October 2014
23
Share Markets
Trailing P/E Ratios
ratio
MSCI World excluding Australia
ratio
30
30
20
20
MSCI Australia
10
10
0
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
0
2014
Dividend Yields
%
%
MSCI Australia
6
6
4
4
2
2
MSCI World excluding Australia
0
1989
1994
1999
2004
0
2014
2009
Sources: MSCI; Thomson Reuters
Sources: MSCI; Thomson Reuters
Forward P/E Ratios
ratio
ratio
MSCI world
Forecast Earnings per Share
MSCI Australia
index
index
09/10
20
20
08/09
90
11/12
07/08
MSCI Australia
10
10
90
12/13
14/15
06/07
13/14
70
70
10/11
05/06
0
1989
1994
1999
Sources: MSCI; Thomson Reuters
2004
2009
0
2014
50
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
50
Sources: MSCI; Thomson Reuters
Chart Pack | October 2014
24
Bond Issuance
Bonds on Issue in Australia
$b
$b
Non-government Bonds on Issue in Australia
$b
$b
Non-government**
Financials
400
400
300
300
200
150
150
Asset-backed securities*
100
100
50
50
200
Australian Government*
100
100
State governments
0
1994
1999
2004
2009
0
2014
Non-financial corporates
Non-residents
0
1994
*
Excludes bonds purchased by the Australian Government
*
**
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations, includes government-guaranteed
bonds
Sources: ABS; RBA
1999
2004
2009
0
2014
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations
Sources: ABS; RBA
Non-government Bond Issuance
$b
Domestic issuers*
Non-government Bonds on Issue Offshore
Gross issuance
Australia
$b
$b
Financials
Non-resident issuers**
40
All currency denominations
$b
40
300
20
300
20
$b
$b
Offshore
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
*
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations
**
Offshore non-resident issuance includes Australian dollar-denominated
bonds only
Source:
200
Non-financial
corporates
Asset-backed securities
100
100
Non-residents*
0
1994
*
1998
200
2002
2006
2010
0
2014
Australian dollar-denominated bonds only
Sources: ABS; APRA
RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
25
Equity Raisings and Business Financing
Australian Equity Raisings*
$b
20
15
10
5
$b
20
15
10
5
IPOs
$b
28
21
14
7
Other raisings
$b
Buybacks
$b
28
21
14
7
0
-5
-5
2002
*
2005
2008
Non-financial corporates
Financials and assetbacked securities**
$b
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
$b
0
-10
Net Non-intermediated Capital Raisings*
$b
2011
2014
-10
All listed companies
Sources: ASX; RBA
-25
2004
2009
2014
2004
2009
*
Includes equity, hybrids, bonds, and short-term debt
**
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations; financials include banks and
non-bank financials
2014
-25
Sources: APRA; ASX; Austraclear; RBA
Australian Net Equity Raisings*
$b Non-financials corporates
$b
30
30
Financials**
Business External Funding
%
Net change as a share of GDP
Non-intermediated debt
Business credit
Equity
Total
%
25
25
15
20
20
10
10
15
15
10
10
5
5
5
5
0
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
2002
2005
2008
*
All listed companies
**
Includes banks and non-bank financials
2011
2014
-5
-10
1994
1999
2004
15
2009
-10
2014
Sources: ABS; APRA; ASX; RBA
Sources: ASX; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
26
Exchange Rates
Australian Dollar TWI*
index
index
80
80
Real
Official Reserve Assets
A$b
80
80
Gross
60
70
A$b
60
70
40
60
60
Nominal
50
40
1984
*
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
50
40
2014
May 1970 = 100 for nominal; real indexed to equate post-float averages
Sources: ABS; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
20
A$b RBA net purchases of foreign exchange**
4
200
US$,
euro
1.60
Yen per A$
(LHS)
US$ per A$
Euro per A$*
2
0
0
-2
-2
50
1984
*
1989
1994
1999
1.20
A$b
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
1998
2002
2006
2010
-4
2014
Excludes foreign exchange swaps
**
Includes market, government and other outright transactions,
excludes swap deliveries
*** Data up to 30 June 2014; a positive value indicates a purchase of
foreign exchange, while a negative value indicates a sale of foreign
exchange
Source:
RBA
(RHS)
(RHS)
100
A$b
4
2
*
150
20
Net*
A$b
RBA foreign exchange market intervention transactions***
4
Australian Dollar against US Dollar,
Euro and Yen
yen
40
0.80
2004
2009
0.40
2014
ECU per A$ until 31 December 1998
Sources: Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Chart Pack | October 2014
27
Exchange Rates
US Dollar against Euro and Yen
yen
US$
Selected Asian Currencies against the US Dollar
31 January 2000 = 100
index
250
0.9
210
1.3
US$ per euro*
(RHS, inverted scale)
170
1.7
130
2.1
Yen per US$
(LHS)
90
50
1984
*
2.5
1990
1996
2002
2008
2.9
2014
March quarter 1999 = 100
index
index
Yen
120
120
100
100
80
US dollar
60
120
2002
Thailand
Malaysia
100
100
India
80
80
60
Indonesia
40
2002
2006
2006
2010
60
2014
2010
60
40
2014
Bloomberg
Chinese Renminbi
index
120
Nominal effective exchange rate
(LHS, 2010 average = 100)
110
yuan
6.0
6.5
100
7.0
90
7.5
80
Euro
140
South Korea
120
Source:
Nominal TWI
80
Singapore
140
US$ per ECU until 31 December 1998
Sources: Bloomberg; Eurostat
index
Yuan per US$
(RHS, inverted scale)
70
60
2002
2006
2010
8.0
8.5
9.0
2014
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; RBA
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
28
Banking Indicators
Bank Profitability*
Bank Profits
Profits after tax
Major banks*
$b
Bad and doubtful debt charge
$b
Major banks*
12
12
Institutions operating in Australia
Return on shareholders’ equity
%
%
Post-tax and minority interests
20
20
10
6
6
10
Regional banks
0
0
Major banks
%
$b
Regional banks**
$b
Regional banks**
0.5
0.5
Per cent of average assets
1.5
0.0
1.0
1.0
Regional banks
0.0
1988
*
$b
Foreign-owned banks***
Foreign-owned banks***
1.6
$b
1.5
Major banks
0.5
0.0
%
Change for bad and doubtful debts
1993
1998
2003
0.5
0.0
2013
2008
From 2006 data are on an IFRS basis; prior years are on an AGAAP
basis; includes St. George and, from 2009, Bankwest
Sources: Banks’ Annual and Interim Reports; RBA
1.6
na
0.0
-1.6
2007
2011
na
2007
2011
Major Banks’ Net Interest Margin*
0.0
-1.6
2015
Domestic, half-yearly
%
%
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
Actual
Actual
Analysts' forecasts Analysts' forecasts
ANZ, NAB and Westpac report half yearly to March and September,
while CBA reports to June and December
** Suncorp Bank and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank report half yearly to
June and December, while Bank of Queensland reports to February
and August
*** All results are half year to June and December
Sources: APRA; Banks’ Annual and Interim Reports; Credit Suisse; Deutsche
Bank; Nomura Equity Research; RBA; UBS Securities Australia
*
1.5
2002
*
2006
2010
1.5
2014
From 2006 data are on an IFRS basis; prior years are on AGAAP
basis; excludes St George Bank and Bankwest prior to the first half
of 2009
Sources: Banks’ Financial Reports; RBA
Chart Pack | October 2014
29
Banking Indicators
Banks’ Non-performing Assets
Consolidated global operations, share of on-balance sheet assets
%
%
Total*
6
Banks’ Non-performing Assets
Domestic books, share of loans by type
%
%
5
5
4
4
6
Business and other*
4
4
2
3
3
2
2
2
Impaired
0
1994
*
1999
2004
2009
0
2014
Capital Ratios*
Locally incorporated banks
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
Includes lending to financial businesses, bills and debt securities
APRA
Funding Composition of Banks in Australia*
Consolidated global operations
%
Housing
2004
Source:
APRA
1
Total*
0
*
Includes assets 90+ days past due that are well secured
Source:
Personal
1
%
Other ADIs
Credit unions
Share of total funding
%
%
Domestic deposits
50
15
50
15
40
Total
40
Short-term debt**
10
Tier 1
10
Building societies
5
Tier 2
0
1994
*
2004
1994
2004
0
2014
Per cent of risk-weighted assets; break in March 2008 due to the
introduction of Basel II for most ADIs; break in March 2013 due to the
introduction of Basel III for all ADIs; June 2014 data for Tier 1 and Tier
2 capital ratios have been withheld by APRA to maintain confidentiality
Source:
30
20
Common Equity Tier 1
5
30
Long-term debt
20
Equity
10
0
10
Securitisation
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
*
Adjusted for movements in foreign exchange rates; tenor of debt is
estimated on a residual maturity basis
**
Includes deposits and intragroup funding from non-residents
0
Sources: APRA; RBA; Standard & Poor’s
APRA
Chart Pack | October 2014
30