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Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia Stefan Gerlach; Paul Gruenwald ISBN: 9781137001535 DOI: 10.1057/9781137001535preview Palgrave Macmillan Please respect intellectual property rights This material is copyright and its use is restricted by our standard site license terms and conditions (see palgraveconnect.com/pc/connect/info/terms_conditions.html). If you plan to copy, distribute or share in any format, including, for the avoidance of doubt, posting on websites, you need the express prior permission of Palgrave Macmillan. To request permission please contact [email protected]. Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 This page intentionally left blank Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald © International Monetary Fund 2006 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their right to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published in hardcover 2005 First published in paperback 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 13: 978–1–4039–8751–8 ISBN 10: 1–4039–8751–3 ISBN 13: 978–0–230–54700–1 ISBN 10: 0–230–54700–1 hardback hardback paperback paperback This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Procyclicality of financial systems in Asia / edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. Contents: Procyclicality and volatility in the financial system: the implementation of Basel II and IAS 39 – Sources of procyclicality in East Asian financial systems – Procyclical financial behaviour: what can be done? ISBN 1–1–4039–8751–3 (cloth) 0–230–54700–1 (pb.) 1. Financial institutions–Asia. 2. Business cycles–Asia. 3. International finance. I. Gerlach, Stefan. II. Gruenwald, P. (Paul). HG187.A2P76 2006 332.042095–dc22 10 16 9 15 8 14 7 13 6 12 2005058270 5 11 4 10 3 09 2 08 1 07 Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. List of Tables vi List of Figures viii Acknowledgments ix Participants and Other Attendees x Foreword xiii 1 Introduction Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald 1 2 Procyclicality and Volatility in the Financial System: the Implementation of Basel II and IAS 39 Ashley Taylor and Charles Goodhart 9 Comments on “Procyclicality and Volatility in the Financial System: the Implementation of Basel II and IAS 39” David Burton William A. Ryback José Viñals 3 Sources of Procyclicality in East Asian Financial Systems R. Sean Craig, E. Philip Davis and Antonio Garcia Pascual Comments on “Sources of Procyclicality in East Asian Financial Systems” Han Mingzhi Tarisa Wantanagase 4 Procyclical Financial Behavior: What Can Be Done? Philip Lowe and Glenn Stevens Comments on “Procyclical Financial Behavior: What Can Be Done?” Már Gudmundsson Eiji Hirano Andrew Sheng Index 38 44 47 55 124 130 137 161 168 173 176 v 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Contents List of Tables 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 A1 A2 A3 A4 Selected research on capital charge cyclicality, reproduced from Table 4 of Kashyap and Stein (2003) Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real GDP Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real GDP – cyclical asymmetries Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real house prices Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real GDP Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real house prices – cyclical asymmetries Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real GDP – cyclical asymmetries Exposure of international (BIS) banks to Asian countries Determinants of credit growth, panel estimation Equations for loan growth Equations for bank lending margin over short-term interest rate Equations for bank provisioning rate Equations for advanced and emerging market economies Equations differentiating foreign and domestic effects Varying property price proxies Equations differentiating foreign and domestic effects using residential property prices Estimates for public bank ownership dummy Determinants of credit growth, panel estimation Determinants of credit growth, panel estimation Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real GDP – cyclical asymmetries since 1990 Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real GDP – cyclical asymmetries since 1990 17 59 60 61 61 62 63 75 81 84 86 88 90 92 95 96 101 106 107 111 112 vi 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 2.1 List of Tables vii A5 113 114 114 115 116 Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 A6 A7 A8 A9 Correlation coefficients with fourth difference of log of real house prices – cyclical asymmetries since 1990 Number of banks per country Characteristics of the Bankscope sample Equations for Hong Kong Equations excluding Japan 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald List of Figures 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 Capital inflows, real GDP growth and credit rating in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Thailand Trend and cycle: Basel I and II compared Does Basel II add to procyclicality? Credit and asset price deviations from trend Growth rate of banking credit and GDP 1991–2002 Banking credit/GDP 1991–2002 41 49 50 65 125 126 viii 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 2.1 We are very grateful for the support and encouragement received from Joseph Yam, Agustín Carstens and David Burton. We would also like to thank those who contributed the excellent logistical support that made the seminar a success. On the HKIMR side, Matthew Yiu and Emily Cheng took care of numerous details in making sure the arrangements were top notch. They also played a key role in helping to coordinate the production of this volume. On the IMF side, Ms Atta Tse and Mr Alfred Wong of the Hong Kong SAR sub-office smoothly handled a truly impressive number of organizational details, thereby contributing to a very happy (and hence productive) group of conference participants. Last but not least, we would like to thank Amanda Hamilton and Katie Button of Palgrave Macmillan, without whose expertise and, most importantly, patience, we never would have gotten this volume off the ground. ix 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Acknowledgments Participants and Other Attendees David Burton is Director, Asia and Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund. Agustín Carstens is Deputy Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund. K. C. Chan is Dean, School of Business and Management at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Gerard Dages is Vice President, Emerging Markets and International Affairs at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Charles Goodhart is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Már Gudmundsson is Deputy Head, Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements. Maximilian Hall is Professor of Banking and Financial Regulation at Loughborough University. Mingzhi Han is Director-General, International Department at the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Eiji Hirano is Assistant Governor at the Bank of Japan. Kevin Ho is Permanent Secretary, Financial Services and the Treasury (Financial Services) in the Hong Kong SAR Government. Stefan Ingves was Director, Monetary and Financial Systems Department at the International Monetary Fund and is currently Governor of the Riksbank. Sang-Kuang Ooi is Deputy Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia. x 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Participants Participants and Other Attendees xi Peter Pang is a Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. William Ryback is a Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Andrew Sheng is the former Chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Glenn Stevens is Deputy Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Amando Tetangco was Deputy Governor for the Banking Services Sector at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, and is currently Governor, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. José Viñals is Director General, International Affairs at the Banco de España. Tarisa Watanagase is Deputy Governor, Financial Institutions Stability at the Bank of Thailand. Wong Fot Chyi is Executive Director, Macroeconomic Surveillance Department at the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Joseph Yam is Chairman of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research and Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Also in attendance Sean Craig is Senior Economist, Monetary and Financial Systems Department at the International Monetary Fund. Stefan Gerlach was Director of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research and is currently Head of Secretariat, Committee on the Global Financial System at the Bank of International Settlements. Paul Gruenwald is the International Monetary Fund’s Resident Representative in Hong Kong SAR. 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Yung-Chul Park is Professor, College of Political Science and Economics at Korea University. xii Participants and Other Attendees Alfred Kammer is Adviser, Office of the Deputy Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund. Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Julia Leung is an Executive Director (External) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald In November 2004, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research1 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) co-hosted a one-day seminar on the procyclicality of financial systems in Asia. The event took place at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). The seminar was the brainchild of Norman Chan, former Deputy Chief Executive of the HKMA. Mr Chan argued that while policymakers across Asia continued to be concerned about the tendency for financial sector activity to amplify real sector activity, there had been very little regional dialogue on this issue. Indeed, he noted that the bulk of the analytical work and all of the conferences to date had focused almost exclusively on European and US experiences. Mr Chan thought that an Asia-based and Asia-focused event on the topic was both appropriate and overdue, and asked whether the IMF would lend its support to the idea. The Fund, with strong support from its management, was happy to agree. Thus, the objective of the seminar was to bring together for the first time senior policy-makers from across the Asia region, academics and staff of international organizations to share experiences in identifying, measuring and addressing financial sector procyclicality in the Asian context. The aim of the seminar was functional – it was pitched at practitioners rather than academics, and the work and discussions were more in the spirit of “how to” rather than trying to arrive at crisp theoretical results. The present volume brings together the three main discussion papers of the seminar as well as comments on those works by key participants. The conference was organized by Stefan Gerlach, former Director of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research and former Executive Director of the HKMA’s Research Department, and Paul Gruenwald, the IMF’s Resident Representative in Hong Kong SAR. They also edited this volume. It is our sincere hope that this volume2 and, more generally, the process begun by the seminar, will be the first step in a long and fruitful regional dialogue. The ultimate aim is to work towards a better understanding of the nature and consequences of procyclicality xiii 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Foreword xiv Foreword of financial sectors in Asia as well as the formation of appropriate, welfare-enhancing policy responses. JOSEPH YAM AGUSTI´N CARSTENS Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund Note 1. A research institute affiliated with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. 2. Nothing contained in this book should be reported as representing the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, member governments, or any other entity mentioned herein. The views expressed in this book belong solely to the authors. 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Chairman Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research 1 Introduction The procyclicality of financial systems has received an increasing amount of attention from policy-makers, academics and international organizations in recent years. This heightened interest stems from a combination of the ongoing globalization of finance, the role of the financial sector in various emerging market crises in the late 1990s and the potential impact on financial sectors of the upcoming implementation of the Basel II Accord. Clearly, some degree of financial sector procyclicality is a characteristic of any normally functioning economy. In the simplest of models, the expansionary phase of the business cycle exhibits rising investor and consumer confidence, leading at some point to a rise in the demand for credit that exceeds the rate of economic growth. This demand for credit, which might take the form of a “boom,” is further bolstered by a rise in property prices and other asset values that can be used as collateral, further raising confidence and the capacity to borrow, and so on. In downturns, these forces reverse, leading to a contraction in credit and asset values that is usually more pronounced than the slowdown – or even reduction – in the growth of key macroeconomic aggregates.2 At issue is whether the observed procyclicality of the financial sector is excessive. If it is indeed judged to be so under some circumstances, then policy intervention can – if used wisely – improve economic outcomes and, thus, general well-being. The policy-makers’ tasks are therefore: (i) to assess whether financial sector procyclicality is excessive; (ii) if deemed so, to determine what are the causes; and (iii) to decide which policy instrument(s) 1 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald1 to use to achieve the desired outcomes. Alas, this is easier said than done. On the first of these, there is no hard and fast rule. Policymakers will likely need to rely on their judgement, particularly as regards the size and nature of any imbalances or weaknesses that may be emerging in the various sectors of the economy. The second is the subject of considerable ongoing theoretical and empirical investigation. Some researchers point to the pricing of risk over the cycle, others to the incentives facing economic agents and their impact on planning horizons, others to “institutional memory loss,” while still others would point to regulatory structure itself as a possible culprit. Finally, once the policy-maker has made an assessment of the cause of any excessive procyclicality of the financial system, the choice of which policy instrument to use comes into play. Should it be supervisory policy? Monetary policy? Others? The choice of policy to combat excessive procyclicality has itself spawned an entire debate, with no clear answers. To date, most studies and conferences on the procyclicality of financial systems have looked at the issue in a “Western” context. It was hoped that hosting a modest-sized seminar on this issue from an Asian perspective with experiences based on developments in Asian financial systems would help to begin a dialogue between the various parties that have been individually studying or grappling with this issue, yield additional policy insights based on Asian experiences and stimulate a research program. With these aims in mind, on November 22, 2004, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) co-hosted in Hong Kong a high-level, one-day seminar entitled “Managing Procyclicality of the Financial System: Experiences in Asia and Policy Options,” which sought to bring together senior policy-makers from around the Asia region, academics and officials from international financial institutions. To our knowledge, the conference was the first – and remains, at least at the time of publication, the only – event on this important issue in the Asian context. The seminar was organized into three sessions, each comprising a main paper for discussion and a number of prepared comments, which were followed by an open floor discussion. The first session was intended as a theoretical roadmap to help set the stage for the subsequent modules. Charles Goodhart of the London School of 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 2 Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia Economics (LSE) presented a paper he co-authored with Ashley Taylor, also of the LSE. The second session focused on the experiences of key Asian emerging market financial systems with procyclicality. The background paper was written by an IMF team headed by Sean Craig of the Fund’s Monetary and Financial Systems Department. Stefan Ingves, then Director of the Department, presented the paper. The third and final module was devoted to policy options and the way forward, with Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, presenting a paper he co-authored with his colleague Assistant Governor Philip Lowe. The theoretical roadmap In presenting the paper entitled “Procyclicality and Volatility in the Financial System: the Implementation of Basel II and IAS 39” (Chapter 2), Charles Goodhart focused on the effects of the revision of the Basel Accord on Banking Supervision (Basel II) and International Accounting Standards (IAS). He noted that the impact of Basel II on procyclicality depends on the time horizon over which banks assess risk. Specifically, banks that use point-in-time estimates of risk based on current default experiences are likely to be more procyclical than banks using through-the-cycle estimates of risk based on average default rates over the cycle. The latter will tend to slow credit growth by building up capital and provisions in upturns, which will be available to cushion losses and limit the contraction of credit in downturns. Supervisors should consider how to use the discretion provided by Pillar II capital to limit the procyclical impact of Basel II and to encourage banks to take a longer perspective. Goodhart underscored that while IAS will increase transparency, it will also raise reported volatility as balance sheets are marked-tomarket. What is often overlooked is the interaction between IAS and Basel II. IAS should improve market discipline under Pillar III but may be inconsistent with some prudential policies that could dampen procyclicality. IAS recognizes actual defaults but not expected losses for accounting purposes, which could shorten the horizon of banks’ risk management. Specifically, banks only receive favorable tax treatment on provision made against defaults when they occur but not on ex-ante provisions made against defaults expected to occur in a future cyclical downturn. 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 Introduction 3 Goodhart emphasized that the impact of Basel II is hard to predict and may have a limited effect in many countries. Many banks hold excess capital so the regulatory capital constraint is not binding. For sophisticated banks, Basel II only brings capital regulation into line with current capital allocation practices. One concern is that in emerging markets, Basel II could transfer riskier credits from large international banks to domestic banks who are less able to manage them. The former will use the IRB approach and thus will assign higher risk weights to risky credits than will domestic banks using the standardized approach. The discussion of the paper touched on the challenge of determining whether procyclicality is excessive, and when to take preventative actions. In some sense, measuring procyclicality presents the policy-maker with a moving target given the evolving nature of business cycles and financial systems. That said, excessive procyclicality can be identified as those fluctuations that cause some combination of unnecessary amplification of the real economy and damage to the soundness of the financial system. In combating excessive procyclicality, it was thought that actions are much more effective and credible when taken during an economic upturn, when risks are being built up, rather than in a downturn, when the risks are materializing. More generally, in taking policy decisions across a range of areas (monetary, prudential, exchange rate), policymakers would need to be mindful of the sources of procyclicality in their financial systems. Asian experiences with procyclicality In his presentation of the IMF paper entitled “Procyclicality in Asian Financial Systems” (Chapter 3), Stefan Ingves focused on features of Asian financial systems that exacerbate procyclicality. He noted that procyclicality in Asia has two revealing characteristics: (i) property prices are strongly correlated with both credit and real GDP growth; and (ii) it is highly asymmetric. The latter shows that downturns are much sharper, reflecting the role of financial crises in driving excessive procyclicality. Empirical evidence showing that large deviations of asset prices and credit from trend do help predict crises supports this interpretation. 10.1057/9781137001535preview - Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia, Edited by Stefan Gerlach and Paul Gruenwald Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2014-10-15 4 Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia
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