1. finance
2. investing
3. stocks

13 October 2014
Analyst
Fred Truong 613 9235 1629
Stuart Howe 613 9235 1782
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
Authorisation
Chris Savage 612 8224 2835
Dividend declared and policy in place
Inaugural dividend declared; shares consolidated 1 for 4
Recommendation
MLX has declared an inaugural fully franked dividend of 0.6785 cents per share (vs BP
est nil) subsequent to the release of its FY14 financial results. The dividend will be
paid on 10 December 2014. The dividend represents a payout ratio of 30% of FY14
NPAT.
Buy (unchanged)
Price
$0.205
MLX has also recommended to shareholders a 1 for 4 share consolidation. A
resolution will be put forward at the company’s AGM on Wednesday 26 November
2014. Should the consolidation occur, MLX will have 414m shares on issue.
Target (12 months)
$0.30 (unchanged)
Dividend policy adopted: 30% payout ratio
Expected Return
Capital growth
46.3%
Dividend yield
4.8%
Total expected return
51.1%
Company Data & Ratios
Enterprise value
$248m
Market cap
$339m
Issued capital
1,656m
Free float
76%
Avg. daily val. (52wk)
$434,270
12 month price range
$0.14 - $0.28
GICS sector
Materials
Price Performance
Price (A$)
Absolute (%)
Rel market (%)
(1m)
0.24
-4.26
2.07
MLX has adopted a dividend policy where it will seek to pay out 30% of NPAT as
dividends in future years, consistent with our estimates. We estimate dividend yields of
4.8% and 5.8% in FY15 and FY16, respectively. We see this as achievable given
MLX’s modest CAPEX requirements from FY15+. We estimate MLX’s current cash
balance to be around $100m, following funds raised from its gold prepayment
arrangement with Citibank ($40.5m).
Currency and commodity price changes
We have recently trimmed our gold price estimates, now expecting US$1,208/oz
(previously US$1,265/oz) in FY15, US$1,175/oz (US$1,275/oz) in FY16, and
US$1,245/oz (US$1,290/oz) in FY17. We have also reduced our A$/US$ estimates,
now expecting 0.875 in FY15 and 0.85 from FY16 onwards. The net effect of these
changes is earnings downgrades of 5% and 1% in FY16 and FY17, respectively.
Investment view: Buy TP$0.30/sh
(3m)
0.25
-10.00
-8.03
(12m)
0.14
60.71
60.54
Absolute Price
Our 12-month forward NPV is $0.33/sh with around 75% of our valuation attributable to
MLX’s gold assets. MLX is trading on FY15 and FY16 PE multiples of 6.2x and 5.2x.
We see potential for MLX to re-rate as it grows gold production from around 138kopza
in FY14 to more than 350kozpa from FY17. We’ve made no material changes to our
earnings estimates and price target.
Earnings Forecast
Year ending 30 Jun
$0.30
Sales (A$m)
2014a
2015e
2016e
239
291
401
2017e
506
$0.25
EBITDA (A$m)
70
93
110
146
$0.20
NPAT (reported) (A$m)
37
53
65
66
$0.15
NPAT (adjusted) (A$m)
39
53
65
66
2
3
4
4
na
43%
21%
2%
EPS (adjusted) (cps)
$0.10
EPS growth (%)
$0.05
PER (x)
$0.00
Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun
12 13 13 13 14 14
MLX
S&P 300 Rebased
9.1
6.3
5.2
5.1
FCF Yield (%)
-1%
28%
10%
33%
EV/EBITDA (x)
3.5
2.7
2.3
1.7
Dividend (cps)
1
1
1
1
Yield (%)
3.3%
4.7%
5.8%
5.9%
Franking (%)
100%
100%
100%
100%
13%
16%
16%
15%
ROE (%)
SOURCE: IRESS
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED
ACN 25 006 390 7721
AFSL 243480
DISCLAIMER AND DISCLOSURES
THIS REPORT MUST BE READ WITH THE DISCLAIMER
AND DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 8 THAT FORM PART OF IT.
Page 1
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
13 October 2014
Earnings and valuation changes
Changes to earnings estimates
As a result of our commodity price changes below, we have downgraded earnings by 5%
and 1% in FY16 and FY17, respectively.
Table 1 - Earnings and valuation changes
Previous
Revenue (A$m)
NPAT (adjusted) (A$m)
Adjusted EPS (Ac/sh)
PER (x)
DPS (Ac/sh)
Yield (%)
ND / (ND + E) (%)
Valuation ($/sh)
New
Change
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-15
Jun-16
290
404
507
291
401
506
0%
-1%
Jun-17
0%
53
69
67
53
65
66
0%
-5%
-1%
-1%
3
4
4
3
4
4
0%
-5%
6.4
5.0
5.1
6.3
5.2
5.1
(0.0)
0.3
0.0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0%
-5%
-1%
4%
5%
5%
5%
6%
6%
1%
0%
1%
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.28
0.34
0.34
0.28
0.33
0.34
-3%
-3%
0%
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Commodity price changes
We have recently trimmed our gold price estimates, now expecting US$1,208/oz
(previously US$1,265/oz) in FY15, US$1,175/oz (US$1,275/oz) in FY16, and US$1,245/oz
(US$1,290/oz) in FY17. We have also reduced our A$/US$ estimates, now expecting
0.875 in FY15 and 0.85 from FY16 onwards.
Table 2 - Commodity price changes
Fiscal year
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
LTe (real)
New
1,208
1,175
1,245
1,150
Old
1,265
1,275
1,290
1,150
-4%
-8%
-3%
0%
New
0.88
0.85
0.85
0.85
Old
0.91
0.90
0.88
0.85
Change
-4%
-6%
-3%
0%
Gold US$/oz
Change
AUD/USD
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Page 2
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
13 October 2014
Valuation and sensitivity analysis
Valuation of $0.33/sh
Our MLX valuation of $0.33/sh is based on:
•
Discounted cash flow models of MLX’s two main producing assets (Renison tin mine
and HGO) and two development gold assets (SGO and CMGP) using a nominal WACC
of 10%;
•
A notional value on Rentails, Rover 1 and Wingellina;
•
An allowance for corporate costs; and
•
Bell Potter Securities base and precious metals estimates.
Table 3 - Sums of parts valuation
Current
Sum of parts valuation
+ 12 months
+ 24 months
$m
$/sh
$m
$/sh
$m
$/sh
84
0.05
76
0.05
67
0.04
Higginsville Gold Operation
127
0.08
107
0.06
86
0.05
South Kalgoorlie Operation
48
0.03
47
0.03
38
0.02
151
0.09
182
0.11
226
0.14
Rentails
10
0.01
10
0.01
10
0.01
Rover 1
10
0.01
10
0.01
10
0.01
Wingellina
20
0.01
20
0.01
20
0.01
Corporate
(48)
(0.03)
(46)
(0.03)
(44)
(0.03)
Enterprise value
403
0.24
406
0.25
413
0.25
57
0.03
133
0.08
145
0.09
460
0.28
538
0.33
557
0.34
Renison Tin mine
Central Murchison Gold Project (risked at 70%)
Net (debt)/cash
Equity value
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Revenue and free cash flow growth from gold production
Gold will make a substantial (+80%) contribution to revenue and EBITDA from FY16. Given
the minimal CAPEX required going forward, we expect MLX to generate substantial free
cash flow over FY15 – 18.
Our gold production assumptions are lower than company guidance (refer Figure 2) due to
differences in ramp-up assumptions and milled capacity. We have also excluded the early
stage Rover 1 project from our modelling.
700
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
600
500
A$m
Figure 2 - Gold production (MLX guidance) vs BP est
400
300
200
100
0
FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e
600
500
400
koz gold
Figure 1 - MLX total revenue split by operation
300
200
100
0
Renison Tin mine
CMGP
Gold % of total (RHS)
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
South Kalgoorlie gold project
Higginsville Gold Project
FY15e
Rover 1
FY16
CGMP
FY17e
SKO
FY18e
HGO
FY19e
BP est
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES AND COMPANY REPORTS
Page 3
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
13 October 2014
Figure 3 - Revenue split by commodity in FY2013
Figure 4 - Revenue split by commodity in FY2016e
Copper, 6%
Tin, 20%
Copper, 1%
Gold, 79%
Tin, 94%
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Sensitivity analysis: most leveraged to gold and currency
Our MLX valuation is most sensitive to movements in the gold price and AUD:USD
exchange rate as shown in Figures 5 and Table 6.
Figure 5 - Changes (%) to our pricing deck, including long term
Table 4 - Sensitivity to Au and Sn A$/sh (change from base case)
0.9
0.8
Changes (%) to our pricing deck, including Long Term
Units
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
NPV
A$/sh
0.23
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.44
NPV
A$m
377
465
553
641
730
FY15e EPS
Ac/sh
2
2
3
4
5
0.2
FY16e EPS
Ac/sh
2
3
4
5
6
0.1
FY17e EPS
Ac/sh
2
3
4
5
6
0.0
FY15e P/E
times
12.7
8.3
6.2
5.0
4.1
FY16e P/E
times
12.9
7.4
5.2
4.0
3.3
FY17e P/E
times
10.8
7.0
5.2
4.1
3.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Changes to base case (%)
Au prices
Sn Prices
Cu prices
20%
30%
A$/$US
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Table 5 - Valuation under spot & long term pricing A$m (A$/sh)
Renison
HGO & SGO
CMGP
Total equity
valuation
Base case
76 (0.05)
154 (0.09)
182 (0.11)
538 (0.33)
Spot
65 (0.04)
177 (0.11)
213 (0.13)
597 (0.36)
Long term
86 (0.05)
160 (0.10)
191 (0.12)
577 (0.35)
Note:
1. Spot scenario - assumes metals prices as at 10 October 2014
1. Long term scenario - assumes real prices of Au US$1,150/oz; Sn US$9.30/lb; Cu
US$2.70/lb.
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Table 6 - Changes (%) to our pricing deck, A$/sh (change %)
%change in the Gold Price
% Change in the Tin
Price
NPV (A$/sh)
0.7
-20%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
0.12 (-63%)
0.21 (-38%)
0.29 (-13%)
0.37 (12%)
0.46 (37%)
-10%
0.14 (-57%)
0.23 (-32%)
0.31 (-7%)
0.40 (19%)
0.48 (44%)
0%
0.17 (-50%)
0.25 (-25%)
0.33 (0%)
0.42 (25%)
0.50 (50%)
10%
0.19 (-44%)
0.27 (-19%)
0.36 (7%)
0.44 (32%)
0.52 (57%)
20%
0.21 (-37%)
0.29 (-12%)
0.38 (13%)
0.46 (38%)
0.55 (63%)
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Page 4
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
13 October 2014
MLX asset summary
Table 7 - MLX asset summary
Project
MLX equity (%)
Project stage
Location
Mining method
Higginsville Gold
Operation (Au)
South Kalgoorlie
Operation (Au)
Central Murchison
Gold Project (Au)
Meekatharra Gold
Operation (Au)
Renison (Sn)
Wingellina project
(Ni)
100%
100%
100%
100%
50%
100%
Producing
Toll treatment of 3rd
party ores and
treatment of low grade
stockpiles
Feasibility
Feasibility
Producing
Feasibility
Higginsville, 45 km
north of Norseman
South-west of
Kalgoorlie, Western
Australia
Murchison gold
province,
approximately 600
km northeast of
Perth.
Meekatharra, WA
100km northeast of
CGMP
West coast,
Tasmania
Central Musgrave
(~1,400km NE of
Perth)
Underground
(Trident mines) and
various open pits
Planning to resume
underground (HBJ) and
various open pits
Lower grade open pit
and higher grade
underground mine
Lower grade open pit
and higher grade
underground mines
Underground
Open cut
Resource / Reserve
Resource (Mt) - 100%
15.9Mt @ 3.03g/t Au
63Mt @ 1.75g/t Au
61.2Mt @ 2.54g/t Au
63.8Mt @ 1.8g/t Au
33.8Mt @ 0.9%Sn
217Mt @ 0.95% Ni
Reserve (Mt) - 100%
7.0Mt @ 3.69g/t Au
11.1Mt @ 2.1g/t Au
15.5Mt @ 2.36g/t Au
11.1Mt @ 2.1g/t Au
23.9Mt at 0.6%Sn
(including Rentails
19.8Mt @ 0.45% Sn)
168Mt @ 0.98% Ni
Milling rate
850ktpa growing to
1.25Mtpa
1.2Mtpa
(900ktpa MLX ore,
300ktpa toll treating)
1.5 – 2.0Mtpa
700ktpa
4.3Mtpa
Milled grade (BP est)
4.9g/t Au declining
to 3.10g/t Au
0.8g/t Au increasing to
3.1gt Au
4.5g/t Au (average life of mine)
1.5% Sn
0.87 – 1.33% Ni
67%
Ni 92.1%; Cu 89.1%
Project parameters
Recovery (%)
Gold production (Au koz)
96%
92%
120kozpa
19koz increasing to
80ozpa Au
92%
Ramping up to 220kozpa
Tin production (Sn kt, equity)
3.5kt
Nickel production (Ni kt, equity)
38.2ktpa
BP modelled mine life
5 years
5 years
10 years
8 years
n/a
Remaining mine life based on
current reserves
5 years
5 years
10 years
8 years
39 years
SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Figure 6 - Location of MLX key assets
SOURCE: MLX PRESENTATION
Page 5
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
13 October 2014
Metals X Limited (MLX)
Company description
MLX is a diversified precious and base metals producer with two key producing assets
being the Renison tin mine (MLX 50%) and the Higginsville Gold Operation (MLX 100%).
The Renison tin mine is the only significant tin operation in Australia, producing around 7 –
7.5ktpa. Higginsville is producing at around 120kozpa gold.
MLX is also developing the South Kalgoorlie Operation (SKO) and the Central Murchison
Gold Project (CMGP). Combined gold production is expected to grow from around 138koz
in FY14 to more than 350koz by FY17. MLX will be increasingly leveraged to gold (and
decreasingly leveraged to tin) as CMGP and SGO ramp-up.
We estimate that gold assets will contribute to around 80% of MLX earnings in FY14 – 18.
Investment thesis and valuation: Buy, TP$0.30/sh
Our 12-month forward NPV is $0.33/sh with around 75% of our valuation attributable to
MLX’s gold assets. MLX is trading on FY15 and FY16 PE multiples of 6.2x and 5.2x. We
see potential for MLX to re-rate as it grows gold production from around 138kopza in FY14
to more than 350kozpa from FY17. We’ve made no material changes to our earnings
estimates and price target.
Shareholders
Major shareholders include: APAC Resources Ltd, 24.01%; Jinchuan Group Limited,
10.63%; and Blackrock Investment Management, 6.31%.
Risks of investment
-
Commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations. The future earnings and
valuations of exploration, development and operating resources companies are
subject to fluctuations in underlying commodity prices FX exchange rates.
-
Operating and capital cost fluctuations. Markets for exploration, development and
mining inputs can fluctuate widely and cause significant differences between planned
and actual operating and capital costs. Key operating costs are linked to energy and
labour costs.
-
Resource growth and mine life extensions. Future earnings forecasts and
valuations may rely upon resource and reserve growth to extend mine lives.
-
Regulatory changes risks. Changes to the regulation of infrastructure and taxation
(among other things) can impact the earnings and valuation of mining companies.
-
Operating and development risks. Mining companies’ assets are subject to risks
associated with their operation and development. Risks for each company can be
heightened depending on method of operation (e.g. underground versus open pit
mining). Development assets can be subject to approvals timelines or weather events,
causing delays to commissioning and commercial production.
-
Funding and capital management risks. Funding and capital management risks can
include access to debt and equity finance, maintaining covenants on debt finance,
managing dividend payments, and managing debt repayments.
Page 6
Metals X Ltd
Recommendation
Price
Target (12 months)
as at 13 October 2014
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
Buy
$0.205
13 October 2014
$0.30
Table 8 - Financial summary
PROFIT AND LOSS
Year ending 30 Jun
Revenue
FINANCIAL RATIOS
Unit
$m
2013a
76
2014a
239
2015e
291
2016e
401
2017e
506
Year ending 30 Jun
Unit
2013a
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
$m
14
39
53
65
66
c/sh
1
2
3
4
4
%
n/a
na
43%
21%
2%
PER
x
-39.1x
DPS
c/sh
VALUATION
Expense
$m
(61)
(169)
(198)
(290)
(361)
EBITDA
$m
15
70
93
110
146
Adjusted EPS
Depreciation
$m
(11)
(34)
(41)
(48)
(55)
EPS growth
EBIT
$m
4
36
52
62
91
Net interest expense
$m
(0)
3
2
3
3
PBT
Tax expense
$m
$m
4
11
39
-
53
-
65
-
95
(28)
Impairments/write-offs/other
$m
(6)
(2)
-
-
-
NPAT (reported)
$m
9
37
53
65
66
Abnormal items
$m
6
2
-
-
-
NPAT (adjusted)
$m
14
39
53
65
66
PROFIT AND LOSS (INTERIM)
Half year ending
Revenue
Unit
$m
Dec-13a
73
Jun-14a Dec-14a
166
141
Jun-15e Dec-15e
149
198
Expense
$m
(58)
(110)
(92)
(106)
(145)
EBITDA
Depreciation
$m
$m
15
(5)
55
(29)
49
(20)
44
(22)
53
(24)
EBIT
$m
10
26
30
22
30
NPAT (adjusted)
9.1x
6.3x
5.2x
5.1x
-
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.2
Franking
%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Yield
%
0.0%
3.3%
4.7%
5.8%
5.9%
FCF/share
c/sh
1
(0)
6
2
7
FCF yield
%
7%
-1%
28%
10%
33%
EV/EBITDA
x
16.8x
3.5x
2.7x
2.3x
1.7x
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
EBITDA margin
%
20%
29%
32%
28%
29%
EBIT margin
%
5%
15%
18%
16%
18%
Return on assets
%
3%
9%
10%
11%
10%
Return on equity
%
3%
13%
16%
16%
15%
Net debt / (cash)
$m
(61)
(57)
(133)
(149)
(242)
ND / E
%
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
ND / (ND + E)
%
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
LIQUIDITY & LEVERAGE
Net interest expense
$m
2
1
1
1
1
PBT
Tax expense
$m
$m
11
-
28
-
30
-
23
-
31
-
Unit
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
LT real
Impairments/write-offs/other
$m
(2)
0
-
-
-
Gold
US$/oz
1,295
1,208
1,175
1,245
1,150
NPAT (reported)
Abnormal items
$m
28
(0)
30
-
23
-
31
-
Tin
US$/lb
10.2
10.0
10.0
10.0
9.3
$m
9
2
Copper
USc/lb
318
319
320
309
2.70
NPAT (adjusted)
$m
11
28
30
23
31
CURRENCY
US$/A$
0.92
0.88
0.85
0.85
0.85
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
2018e
ASSUMPTIONS - Prices
Year ending 30 Jun
AUD/USD
CASH FLOW
Year ending 30 Jun
Unit
2013a
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
OPERATING CASHFLOW
ASSUMPTIONS - Production (equity %)
Year ending 30 Jun
Unit
Receipts
$m
65
238
270
370
482
Payments
$m
(59)
(165)
(167)
(266)
(333)
Sn production (in conc)
kt
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Tax
$m
-
-
-
-
(12)
Cu production (in conc)
kt
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
A$/lb
8.6
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
koz
123
120
119
118
118
A$/oz
774
858
840
845
845
Renison Tin mine (MLX 50% share)
Net interest
$m
2
2
2
3
3
Sn cash costs (payable)
Other
$m
1
(2)
40
-
-
Operating cash flow
$m
10
73
145
106
141
Higginsville Gold Operation
Gold production
C1 gold cash costs
INVESTING CASHFLOW
Capex and exploration
$m
(19)
(49)
(49)
(74)
(29)
Other
$m
30
(29)
-
-
-
Investing cash flow
$m
11
(78)
(49)
(74)
(29)
FINANCING CASHFLOW
South Kalgoorlie Operation
Gold production
C1 cash costs (after tolling credits)
Net equity proceeds
$m
(0)
0
-
-
-
Gold production
Debt proceeds/(repayments)
$m
(1)
(1)
-
-
-
C1 gold cash costs
Dividends
$m
(1)
0
(20)
(16)
(18)
Other
$m
-
-
-
-
-
Financing cash flow
Change in cash
$m
(2)
18
0
(4)
(20)
76
(16)
16
(18)
94
$m
BALANCE SHEET
Year ending 30 Jun
koz
15
22
70
79
80
A$/oz
606
652
880
823
817
Central Murchison Gold Project
Unit
2013a
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
koz
-
13
53
114
187
A$/oz
-
1,051
1,034
1,050
996
VALUATION
Issued capital
Unit
Ordinary shares
m
Ordinary partly paid (restricted)
m
7
Total
m
1,662
ASSETS
Current
Cash & short term investments
$m
61
57
133
149
242
Accounts receivable
$m
12
19
30
40
55
Renison Tin mine
Inventory
$m
15
33
33
33
33
Higginsville Gold Operation
Mine development and PPE
$m
113
219
226
252
227
Exploration & evaluation
$m
82
95
95
95
95
Sum of parts valuation
South Kalgoorlie Operation
Central Murchison Gold Project (risked at 70%)
+ 12 months
1,656
+ 24 months
$m
$/sh
$m
$/sh
$m
84
0.05
76
0.05
67
$/sh
0.04
127
0.08
107
0.06
86
0.05
48
0.03
47
0.03
38
0.02
151
0.09
182
0.11
226
0.14
Other
$m
10
8
8
8
8
Rentails
10
0.01
10
0.01
10
0.01
Total assets
$m
293
431
525
578
660
Rover 1
10
0.01
10
0.01
10
0.01
20
0.01
20
0.01
20
0.01
$m
11
33
64
88
116
Corporate
(48)
(0.03)
(46)
(0.03)
(44)
(0.03)
Enterprise value
403
0.24
406
0.25
413
0.25
57
0.03
133
0.08
145
0.09
460
0.28
538
0.33
557
0.34
Wingellina
LIABILITIES
Accounts payable
Borrowings
$m
0
0
0
0
0
Other
$m
8
86
116
96
103
Net (debt)/cash
Total liabilities
$m
19
120
180
184
219
Equity value
SHAREHOLDER'S EQUITY
Share capital
$m
331
331
331
331
331
TOP 10 SHAREHOLDERS
Reserves
$m
20
20
20
20
20
Issued capital
Retained earnings
$m
(77)
(39)
(6)
42
90
APAC Resources Ltd
%
24.0%
Non-controlling interest
$m
-
-
-
-
-
Jinchuan Group Limited
%
10.6%
Total equity
$m
274
312
345
394
441
Blackrock Investment Management
%
6.3%
m
1,484
1,652
1,652
1,652
1,652
Weighted average shares
Unit
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Page 7
Metals X Ltd (MLX)
Recommendation structure
13 October 2014
Research Team
Staff Member
Title/Sector
Phone
@bellpotter.com.au
TS Lim
Head of Research
612 8224 2810
tslim
Sam Haddad
Industrials
612 8224 2819
shaddad
John O’Shea
Industrials
613 9235 1633
joshea
Hold: Expect total return between -5%
Chris Savage
Industrials
612 8224 2835
csavage
and 15% on a 12 month view
Jonathan Snape
Industrials
613 9235 1601
jsnape
Sam Byrnes
Industrials
612 8224 2886
sbyrnes
Sell: Expect <-5% total return on a
Bryson Calwell
Industrials Associate
613 9235 1853
bcalwell
12 month view
John Hester
Healthcare
612 8224 2871
jhester
Tanushree Jain
Healthcare/Biotech
612 8224 2849
tnjain
TS Lim
Banks/Regionals
612 8224 2810
tslim
Lafitani Sotiriou
Diversified
613 9235 1668
lsotiriou
Buy: Expect >15% total return on a
12 month view. For stocks regarded
as ‘Speculative’ a return of >30% is
expected.
Speculative Investments are either start-up
enterprises with nil or only prospective
operations or recently commenced
operations with only forecast cash flows, or
companies that have commenced
Industrials
Financials
Resources
operations or have been in operation for
Peter Arden
Resources
613 9235 1833
parden
some time but have only forecast cash
Stuart Howe
Resources
613 9235 1782
showe
flows and/or a stressed balance sheet.
Fred Truong
Resources
613 9235 1629
ftruong
Research Assistant
612 8224 2825
Quantitative
Such investments may carry an
Tim Piper
P
tpiper
exceptionally high level of capital risk and
volatility of returns.
Bell Potter Securities Limited
ACN 25 006 390 7721
Level 38, Aurora Place
88 Phillip Street, Sydney 2000
Telephone +61 2 9255 7200
www.bellpotter.com.au
The following may affect your legal rights. Important Disclaimer:
This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities
Limited. In the USA and the UK this research is only for institutional investors. It is not for release, publication or distribution in whole or in part to any persons in the two specified
countries. In Hong Kong this research is being distributed by Bell Potter Securities (HK) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission,
Hong Kong. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute personal advice to any person. Because this document has been prepared without consideration of
any specific client’s financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives (‘relevant personal circumstances’), a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the
financial services licensee, or the representative of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arraignment with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be made
aware of your relevant personal circumstances and consulted before any investment decision is made on the basis of this document.
While this document is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited has not verified independently the information contained
in the document and Bell Potter Securities Limited and its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the
information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility for updating any advice, views opinions, or
recommendations contained in this document or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the document has been issued.
Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded. Bell Potter Limited and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability (whether arising in
contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this document or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise)
suffered by the recipient of this document or any other person.
Disclosure of interest:
Bell Potter Securities Limited, its employees, consultants and its associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Law may receive commissions, underwriting
and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this document (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests
in the securities referred to in this document.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that
the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were
repared in an independent manner and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
Page 8