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13 October 2014
Budget focused on fiscal and economic sustainability
Budget 2015 set the stage for the implementation of GST
In the 2015 Budget announcement, of the seven key strategies and plans,
the Government’s main focus is on fiscal consolidation and reducing the
country’s budget deficit through the introduction of goods and services tax
(GST). We believe international rating agencies (such as S&P, Moody’s
and Fitch Ratings) would view favourably the effort of the government to
meet its deficit target of -3.5% of GDP in 2014 as well as to bring down its
fiscal deficit further to -3% of GDP next year.
Economic Update
MalaysiaBudget 2015
Net revenue from GST of RM5.6bn higher than previous estimate
The implementation of GST at 6%, which will take effect from 1 April 2015,
will replace the current sales tax and service tax (SST), generating tax
revenue close to RM23.2bn for the Government. As GST is a replacement
tax, Government will be foregoing RM13.8bn in tax revenue from the
abolishment of SST as well as RM3.8bn from the expanded GST-free list,
generating an excess of RM5.6bn in 2015. However, this was higher than
the earlier official estimate of a net balance of RM2.5bn from GST
collection.
Government to provide direct compensation package through BR1M4
In order for the Government to provide compensation package to ease the
tax burden on households from GST, as well as to increase public
acceptance of the tax, the financial assistance to households through the
1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M) program will be raised accordingly, costing
the Government around RM4.9bn. As a result, the offset package will
leave the Government with a surplus of RM0.69bn from the GST revenue
collection in the first year of introduction.
GST impact on inflation will likely to be one-off increases
In the budget speech, the Government guided that 38% or 354 items out of
the total 944 goods and services items in the CPI basket may experience
some price increase of about 5.8%, as GST is a broader based
consumption tax. The impact from a 6% GST on headline inflation is likely
to be one-off, adding close to 1.8 percentage point to the rate of inflation.
For the full year 2015, the Government is expecting headline inflation rate
to increase to around 4.0-5.0% in 2015 (3.4% estimated for 2014), but
there is some risk to the inflation forecast, depending on the extent of the
second round effects from GST on prices.
The expenditure programme is expansionary on the economy
The Government stepped up its efforts to support the economy through
higher allocation for development expenditure in view of the uncertain
global economic outlook in 2015. The tax and expenditure programme is
expansionary on the economy, as indicated by the sizeable total
development expenditure allocation of RM48.5bn for 2015 (excluding
RM2bn for contingencies), 14.9% higher than RM42.2bn estimated for
2014. The Government is supporting public and private investment through
several infrastructure projects to be implemented in 2015.
Domestic demand will continue to lead economic growth in 2015
Despite revising its GDP growth forecast upwards to 5.5-6.0% in 2014,
from an earlier official estimate of 4.5-5.5%, the Treasury’s estimate at
mid-point of 5.7% (calculated from the absolute values), implied that real
GDP growth will slow down to 5.1% yoy in 2H14, after the strong
expansion of 6.3% in 1H14. For 2015, MOF also expects the economy to
expand at a slower pace of 5.2%, at the lower end of the official forecast
range of between 5-6%, due to slower private consumption growth.
Economic Research
(603) 2145 8210
[email protected]
[email protected]
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 1 of 18
13 October 2014
Budget focused on fiscal and economic sustainability
Budget 2015 set the stage for the implementation of GST
In the 2015 Budget announcement, of the seven key strategies and plans,
the Government’s main focus is on fiscal consolidation and reducing the
country’s budget deficit through the introduction of goods and services tax
(GST). The Federal Government is projected to incur a smaller budget
deficit of RM35.7bn or 3% of GDP in 2015, compared with a deficit of
RM37.3bn or 3.5% of GDP in 2014, the sixth consecutive year of reduction
since 2010. We believe international rating agencies (such as S&P,
Moody’s and Fitch Ratings) would view favourably the effort of the
government to meet its deficit target for 2014 as well as to bring down its
fiscal deficit further to -3% of GDP in 2015 and -2.5% of GDP by 2016.
Net revenue from GST of RM5.6bn higher than previous estimate
The implementation of GST at 6%, which will take effect from 1 April 2015,
will replace the current sales tax and service tax (SST), generating tax
revenue close to RM23.2bn for the Government. As GST is a replacement
tax, Government will be foregoing RM13.8bn in tax revenue from the
abolishment of SST as well as RM3.8bn from the expanded list of GSTfree list, generating an excess of RM5.6bn in 2015. However, this was
higher than the earlier official estimate of a net balance of RM2.5bn from
GST collection.
Government to provide direct compensation package through BR1M4
In order for the Government to provide compensation package to ease the
tax burden on households from GST, as well as to increase public
acceptance of the tax, the financial assistance to households through the
1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M) program will be raised accordingly, costing
the Government around RM4.9bn (see Fig 1). As a result, the offset
package will leave the Government with a surplus of RM0.69bn from the
GST revenue collection in the first year of introduction.
Fig 1: Budget 2015: BR1M initiative
Recipients
Households
Single individuals aged
21 years old and above
Monthly income
RM3,000 and below
BR1M payments
from RM650 to RM950
Disbursements
RM300 each in January and May
RM3,000-4,000
from RM450 to RM750
RM350 from September
RM200 each in January and May
RM2,000 and below
from RM300 to RM350
RM350 from September
early next year
Source: 2015 Budget Speech
GST list of zero rating and exemptions of goods expanded
The Government expanded the GST list of zero-ratings and exemptions on
basic necessities, where GST will not apply to many basic food items. In
particular, the Government announced that the retail sale of RON95 petrol,
diesel and LPG will be given relief from GST. These generally fall into two
major categories, zero-rating or exemptions. Petrol (RON95), diesel and
LPG contribute a weight of about 8.5% in the total consumer price index
(CPI) basket.
We believe this government decision was made following the resumption
of subsidy rationalisation program in early October, where fuel subsidies
were cut for the second time since September last year. The fuel price of
RON95 grade petrol was raised further by 20 sen from RM2.10 per litre to
RM2.30 per litre, while the price of diesel from RM2.00 to RM2.20 per litre.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 2 of 18
13 October 2014
Details on a targeted fuel subsidy system will be unveiled soon
As for the targeted subsidy scheme proposals, Bernama News quoted
Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah
saying that the restructuring plan will be announced by Prime Minister in
the next few weeks, where the petrol and diesel subsidies, will be rolled
out in two phases, involving both commercial and passenger cars. As
such, we believe the Government is unlikely to hike fuel price of RON95
and diesel further for the second time this year.
GST impact on inflation will likely to be one-off increases
In the budget speech, the Government guided that 56% or 532 items out of
the total 944 goods and services items in the CPI basket may see some
reduction in prices of about -4.1%, attributed to the set off from the
abolishment of the existing sales and services tax (SST) on goods and
services, as well as cost saving from the GST input tax credit (ITC).
However, close to 354 goods and services items in the CPI basket may
experience some price increase of about 5.8%, as GST is a broader based
consumption tax, covering a much wider range of goods and services, as
compared to the existing SST. Earlier, a senior government official
commented that the impact from a 6% GST on headline inflation is likely to
be one-off, adding close to 1.8 percentage point to the rate of inflation. We
believe the country’s inflation rate will likely accelerate from an estimated
3% yoy in March 15 to around 4.8% in April 15. For the full year 2015, the
Government is expecting headline inflation rate to increase to around 4.05.0% in 2015 (3.4% estimated for 2014), in line with our earlier
expectation.
Inflation may be at the upper end of the official forecast of 4-5%
However, there is some risk to the inflation forecast, depending on the
extent of the second round effects from GST on prices, especially when
the benefits of lower costs to business from the removal of SST and input
tax credit (ITC) on production costs may not be immediate, but may take
some months to work through to the retail level. Going forward, we believe
the Government will provide further details on the enforcement against
profiteering as well as publicity campaigns to the consumers. The
Government will publish a document known as “Shopper's Guide” in early
2015, showing prices of consumer goods before and after the GST to
assist consumers.
Other offset package includes reduction in personal income tax
Apart from the BR1M handouts, as well as not taxing GST on basic
necessities in the form of zero-ratings and exemptions, the Government
also reduced personal income tax effective in 2015, as already announced
in Budget 2014. On the specific tax measures, individual income tax will
be reduced between 1 to 3 percentage points for all tax payers, where the
chargeable income subject to the maximum rate will be increased (from
exceeding RM100,000 to exceeding RM400,000). The current maximum
ceiling tax rate at 26% will be reduced to 24%, 24.5% and 25%, see Fig 2.
Fig 2: Reduction in individual income tax effective from 2015
Char ge able Incom e
(RM )
1 - 5,000
5,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 35,000
35,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 70,000
70,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 250,000
250,001 - 400,000
Exceeding 400,000
Cur r e nt Tax Rate s
Pr opos e dTax Rate s
(%)
0%
0%
2%
1%
6%
5%
11%
10%
19%
16%
24%
21%
26%
24%
26%
24.5%
26%
25%
Source: MOF and Budget speech
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 3 of 18
13 October 2014
Overall, we believe the Government has provided some reasonable
compensation packages to ease the GST burden on low and medium
income households in Budget 2015, and will likely look at ways to increase
the disposable income of households going forward.
Economic distortion from GST will likely be manageable
As GST is not a new tax, the economic distortion will likely be manageable,
from the standpoint of economic and business implications. By abolishing
SST, the revenue foregone will be reflected partly as cost savings
(technically replacing a 10% sales tax with a 6% GST), as well as
reduction in cost of doing business (with business recovering input tax on
raw materials and incurred expenses), providing some positive offset to the
introduction of GST.
Gradual shift from direct to indirect taxation
Before GST, the country’s present tax system has a narrowly defined tax
base that may be reliant on direct taxation (i.e. petroleum and corporate
taxes) comparatively to indirect taxation (especially in the present SST
system) as the source of Government’s revenue.
However, the
implementation of GST will likely broaden the tax base through the
expansion of indirect taxation. Studies by international agencies are
encouraging countries to shift their tax regime to depend less on direct
taxes to indirect taxes to promote economic growth.
GST provide better management of government finances
Similarly, studies from other countries showed that unlike the revenue
volatility in direct taxation affected by ups and downs of economic cycles,
revenue collection from indirect taxes, like the GST, is less subject to
business cycle fluctuations, therefore providing better management of
government finances. In 2015, 57.7% of the total tax revenue will be from
direct taxes (down slightly from 59.1% of total in 2014) and the remainder
comprised of indirect taxes (20.3% of total in 2015 vs. 17.2% in 2014) and
non-tax revenues (22% of total in 2015 vs. 23.7% in 2014).
Reducing corporate income tax further will increase competitiveness
The 2015 Budget announced some measures to promote private sector as
the growth drivers to the Malaysian economy. The Government guided
that corporate income tax (CIT) rate will be reduced by 1 percentage point
from 25% to 24% (from 20% to 19% for SMEs) for year of assessment
2016. However, the key will be to reduce its corporate income tax rate
further in the future. While Malaysia’s existing tax incentives to encourage
FDI inflows are wide ranging, such as investment tax allowance and
reinvestment allowance, we believe that further reduction in the country’s
corporate tax rate will be effective in promoting the country’s so called
“capital economy” relative to its neighbouring Asean countries, enhancing
Malaysia's competitiveness as a location for investors to support private
investment, capital market, and corporate profits.
The Eleven Malaysia Plan (11MP) will be launched on May 2015
The Government will be launching the development plans of the Eleven
Malaysia Plan (11MP) for the 2016-2020 periods in May 2015. The Budget
speech announced that an approach known as the Malaysian National
Development Strategy (MyNDS) is being formulated, where the emphasis
is on using limited resources optimally, with focus on high-impact projects
and programmes at low cost as well as efficient and rapid implementation.
This will set out the directions and strategies for Malaysia to become a
high-income nation by 2020.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 4 of 18
13 October 2014
The expenditure programme is expansionary on the economy
Being the last year of the Tenth Malaysia Plan (10MP) for the 2010-2015
periods, the Government stepped up its efforts to support the economy
through higher allocation for development expenditure in view of the
uncertain global economic outlook in 2015. The tax and expenditure
programme is expansionary on the economy, as indicated by the sizeable
total development expenditure allocation of RM48.5bn for 2015 (excluding
RM2bn for contingencies), 14.9% higher than the estimated expenditure of
RM42.2bn for 2014. In the first four years (2011-2014) of the 10MP, the
Federal Government has disbursed about 77% or RM178bn of the total
RM230bn.
However, the Government demonstrated its commitment in fiscal reform by
slowing down its allocation in operating expenditure, which is projected to
slow by 1.1% to RM223.4bn in 2015, compared with an increase of 4.7%
or RM221.1bn in 2014. While operating expenditure will increase less
significantly in 2015, it is still the highest level on record, largely to meet
higher emolument, debt servicing, supplies and services as well as
subsidies. Expenditure on subsidies is expected to decline by -7.1% in
2015, where the subsidy bill is projected to drop to RM37.7bn in 2015,
compared with RM40.6bn in 2014 and RM43.3bn in 2013, attributed to fuel
subsidies as well as lower global crude oil prices.
Fig 3: Federal government financial position
RM billion
2013
2014 1
Change (%)
2015 2
2013
2014 1
2015 2
Revenue
213.4
225.1
235.2
2.6
5.5
4.5
Operating expenditure
211.3
221.1
223.4
2.8
4.7
1.1
Emolument
61.0
65.4
65.7
1.6
7.1
0.5
Pensions and gratuities
14.8
16.2
16.3
5.4
8.9
0.6
Debt service charges
20.8
23.2
24.4
6.3
11.6
5.1
6.0
6.7
7.4
6.2
10.8
11.1
Supplies and services
33.9
36.4
38.1
5.9
7.6
4.6
Subsidies
43.3
40.6
37.7
-1.6
-6.4
-7.1
of which:
Grants and transfers to state governments
Refunds and write-offs
1.1
1.4
1.7
-15.1
23.8
22.5
Grants to statutory bodies
14.8
16.7
16.7
-7.6
12.9
0.4
Others
15.5
14.7
15.5
20.3
-5.4
5.6
2.1
4.0
11.8
-11.6
89.6
195.8
42.2
42.2
48.5
-10.1
0.0
14.9
1.5
0.9
1.0
-41.4
-37.8
8.9
40.7
41.3
47.5
-8.2
1.4
15.0
-38.6
-3.9
-37.3
-3.5
-35.7
-3.0
-8.0
-
-3.4
-
-4.3
-
Current balance
Gross development expenditure
Less: Loan recoveries
Net development expenditure
Overall balance
% of GDP
1 Revised estimate
2 Budget estimate
Source: MOF
Development expenditure has higher multiplier economic impact
According to MOF, a large share of development expenditure will be
allocated for the economic sector, which includes the five growth corridors
and entrepreneur development, improving access and connectivity of
urban public transport, construction and upgrading of roads, bridges,
railways and airports, as well as accelerating the development of rural
infrastructure and agriculture programmes.
We believe the higher
allocation for development expenditure will provide some cushion for the
slowdown in public consumption, in line with the government’s objective to
support fiscal consolidation.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 5 of 18
13 October 2014
Fig 4: Federal government development expenditure by sector
RM billion
2013
Economic services
2014
1
Change (%)
2015
2
2013
2014
1
Share (%)
2015
2
9.2
2013
58.4
2014
1
2015
63.4
2
24.6
26.8
29.3
-14.8
8.7
60.3
Agriculture and rural development
2.7
3.1
3.2
41.2
14.9
2.3
6.4
7.3
6.5
Trade and industry
6.2
5.7
7.8
23.8
-8.7
36.3
14.8
13.5
16.0
of which:
Transport
8.2
8.2
8.7
-19.0
0.0
6.7
19.3
19.3
17.9
10.9
10.4
12.6
-12.2
-4.5
21.4
25.8
24.6
26.0
Education and training
6.4
4.9
5.6
-14.7
-24.5
14.9
15.3
11.5
11.5
Health
1.7
1.7
1.7
-6.7
-2.0
-0.1
4.1
4.0
3.5
Housing
0.9
0.9
2.3
62.5
8.5
148.3
2.0
2.2
4.7
4.6
4.0
4.9
5.4
-14.6
24.3
11.0
9.4
10.2
Social services
of which:
Security
General administration
Total
% of GDP
2.0
1.1
1.7
71.1
-46.8
56.5
4.8
2.6
3.5
42.2
4.3
42.2
3.9
48.5
4.1
-10.1
-
0.0
-
14.9
-
100.0
-
100.0
-
100.0
-
1 Estimate
2 Forecast
Source: MOF
Revenue is expected to increase by 4.5% to RM235.2bn
Revenue is projected to increase at a slower pace of 4.5% to RM235.2bn
in 2015 (from 5.5% or RM225.1bn estimated for 2014). The slowdown in
tax revenue is attributed to a –9.5% decline in petroleum income tax,
based on lower crude oil price assumption for 2015 (US$110 per barrel in
2014). Similarly, revenue collection from personal income tax is also
projected to decline by -0.7% from RM26.7bn in 2014 to RM26.6bn in
2015, due to reduction of individual income tax rates by 1-3 percentage
points. Corporate income tax is expected to increase further by 7.3% to
RM72.6bn in 2015 (RM67.7bn in 2014), with higher tax compliance and
auditing as well as steady economic growth.
Fig 5: Federal government revenue
RM billion
2014 1
2013
TAX REVENUE
Change (%)
2015 2
2013
2014 2
Share (%)
2015 2
2014 1
2013
2015 2
156.0
171.8
183.4
2.8
10.1
6.8
73.1
76.3
78.0
120.5
133.1
135.6
3.1
10.5
1.9
56.5
59.1
57.7
Companies
58.2
67.7
72.6
13.4
16.3
7.3
27.3
30.1
30.9
PITA 3
29.8
28.3
25.6
-12.3
-5.0
-9.5
13.9
12.6
10.9
Individuals
23.1
26.7
26.6
0.3
16.0
-0.7
10.8
11.9
11.3
35.4
38.6
47.7
2.1
9.0
23.6
16.6
17.2
20.3
Excise duties
12.2
13.4
13.7
0.0
10.2
2.0
5.7
6.0
5.8
Sales tax
10.1
11.0
2.7
6.0
9.1
-75.1
4.7
4.9
1.2
5.9
6.8
1.9
6.5
14.1
-72.4
2.8
3.0
0.8
-
-
21.7
-
-
100.0
-
-
9.2
57.4
53.3
51.8
2.0
-7.1
-2.8
26.9
23.7
22.0
Licences and permits
13.4
13.0
13.1
-1.1
-2.7
0.7
6.3
5.8
5.6
Investment income
35.3
32.8
31.1
-3.9
-7.1
-5.1
16.5
14.6
13.2
213.4
21.6
225.1
20.9
235.2
20.0
2.6
-
5.5
-
4.5
-
100.0
-
100.0
-
100.0
-
Direct tax
of which:
Indirect tax
of which:
Service tax
GST
NON-TAX REVENUE
of which:
TOTAL REVENUE
% of GDP
1 revised estimate
2 budget estimate
Source: MOF
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 6 of 18
13 October 2014
Substantial operating surplus of RM11.8bn in 2015, largest since 2007
Government revenue is projected to outpace that of operating expenditure
to register a substantial operating surplus of RM11.8bn in 2015 (RM3.9bn
in 2014), the largest surplus since 2007, see Fig 6. Going forward, we
believe it is important for the Government to maintain its operating
expenditure as planned or pursue further operating expenditure reduction
programme, as this would help the government to build a stronger
reputation for fiscal discipline.
Fig 6: Operating surplus still sizeable
Source: MOF
Budget deficit to improve to 2.5% of GDP in 2016, from 3% in 2015
Taking the size of the revenue and expenditure allocated by the
Government, MOF expects the country’s budget deficit to improve to
around RM35.7bn or 3.0% of GDP in 2015, compared with the deficit of
RM37.3bn or 3.5% of GDP estimated for 2014. Malaysia’s Second
Finance Minister recently said that the budget deficit will improve
significantly to -2.5% of GDP in 2016 before achieving a balanced budget
by 2020. We believe the projected fiscal budget deficit targets can be
achieved, but also premised on economic growth outlook as well as
effectiveness of the implementation of GST in 2015.
Fig 7: Lower budget deficit for six consecutive years
Source: CEIC, MOF
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 7 of 18
13 October 2014
Debt level improved to 52.8% of GDP in 2014
Total Federal Government debt is expected to increase from RM539.9bn in
2013 to RM568.9bn in 2014, but the debt to GDP ratio will improve from
54.7% of GDP to 52.8% of GDP in 2014. MOF expects federal
government debt to be within 55% of GDP and debt service charges be
maintained below 15% of revenue to ensure debt sustainability.
Fig 8: Federal government debt
RM billion
2013
Domestic Debt
% Share
2014
1
2013
% of GDP
2014
1
2013
2014
1
523.1
552.7
96.9
97.1
53.0
4.3
4.3
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.4
GIIs
172.5
188.0
32.0
33.0
17.5
17.4
MGS
Housing Loan
Fund
305.1
315.5
56.5
55.5
30.9
29.3
41.2
44.8
7.6
7.9
4.2
4.2
Treasury Bills
External Debt
51.3
16.8
16.2
3.1
2.9
1.7
1.5
Market Loan
10.8
10.5
2.0
1.9
1.1
1.0
Project Loan
6.0
5.7
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.5
539.9
568.9
100.0
100.0
54.7
52.8
Total
1 End-June 2014
Source: MOF
A Summary of the MOF Economic Report 2014/2015
Economic Outlook for 2015
Based on the assessments and projections made by Ministry of Finance
(MOF) on the country’s economic prospects for 2014 and 2015, Malaysia’s
economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2014 and into
2015. Despite revising its GDP growth forecast upwards to 5.5-6.0% in
2014, from an earlier official estimate of 4.5-5.5%, the Treasury’s estimate
at mid-point of 5.7% (calculated from the absolute values), implied that real
GDP growth will slow down to 5.1% yoy in 2H14, after the strong
expansion of 6.3% in 1H14. For 2015, MOF also expects the economy to
grow at a slower pace of 5.2%, which is at the lower end of the official
forecast range of between 5-6%. This was broadly in line with our
projections of 5.8% estimated for 2014 and 5.3% forecasted for 2015.
Fig 9: Treasury’s GDP forecast (calculated from the absolute values)
Source: CEIC, DoS, MOF
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 8 of 18
13 October 2014
Domestic demand will continue to lead economic growth
As the global economic growth outlook remains subdued and uncertain,
possibly translating into slowing demand for Malaysia’s exports, we concur
with MOF that domestic demand will be the key driver of economic growth
in 2015. The MOF expects real aggregate domestic demand to expand by
6.2% in 2015, from 6.4% estimated for 2014, supported by steady growth
in the private sectors expenditure (especially in private investment). The
public sector will also be slightly expansionary in 2015, partly attributed to
the increase in government’s development expenditure, as the
Government expedites implementation of projects towards the tail-end of
the 10MP, particularly in the transport as well as trade and industry
subsectors. The public consumption and investment will contribute about
1.0 percentage points to GDP growth in 2015 versus 0.6 percentage points
estimated for 2014.
The private consumption and investment will contribute about 4.8
percentage points to GDP growth in 2015, slightly lower than 5.4
percentage points estimated for 2014.
The slower contribution from
private sectors expenditure was mainly due to consumer spending, where
MOF expects real private consumption to slow from 6.5% estimated for
2014 to 5.6% in 2015, as consumers remain cautious in spending following
the fuel subsidy reduction and implementation of GST starting from 1 April
2015. However, MOF expects consumer spending, which accounts for
about 51% of GDP, to be supported by the cash assistance to BR1M
recipients, reduction in individual income tax, as well as increase in
disposable income underpinned by better employment prospects and
continued income growth.
Fig 10: Government’s GDP forecasts
Change (%)
2013
2014 1
Contribution to GDP Growth
(%-points)
2013
2014 1
2015 2
Share to GDP (%)
2015 2
2014 1
2013
2015 2
GDP
4.7
5.5-6.0
5.0-6.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
4.7
5.5-6.0
5.0-6.0
Domestic Demand3
7.4
6.4
6.2
93.1
93.7
94.6
6.8
6.0
5.8
Private Expenditure
8.6
7.9
6.9
68.8
70.1
71.3
5.7
5.4
4.8
7.2
6.5
5.6
52.0
52.4
52.6
3.6
3.4
2.9
Investment
13.1
12.0
10.7
16.7
17.7
18.6
2.0
2.0
1.9
Public Expenditure
4.4
2.3
4.2
24.3
23.6
23.3
1.1
0.6
1.0
Consumption
6.3
2.1
3.8
13.4
12.9
12.8
0.8
0.3
0.5
Investment
2.2
2.6
4.7
10.9
10.6
10.6
0.2
0.3
0.5
-12.6
2.6
-19.7
7.1
6.9
5.3
-1.1
0.2
-1.4
Exports4
0.6
3.5
2.1
89.5
87.6
85.0
0.6
3.1
1.9
Imports4
2.0
3.5
4.0
82.5
80.7
79.7
1.7
2.9
3.2
986.7
1,078.2
1,175.7
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.8
9.3
9.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Consumption
External Sector
GDP (RMbn, current value)
Change (%)
1 revised estimate
2 budget estimate
3 excluding change in stocks
4 Goods and non-factor services
Source: MOF
Of the major components of domestic demand, growth in private
investment continued to show sustainability, rising by 10.7% in 2015 (12%
estimated for 2014), registering double digit growth for four consecutive
years, supported by the ETP initiatives, as reflected in capital expenditure
in the services sector, particularly in private education, transportation and
health subsectors, as well as in the manufacturing sector.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 9 of 18
13 October 2014
In addition, MOF expects the construction of mega-infrastructure projects
such as the MRT Line 1, which is expected to be completed in July 2017,
and other projects with long-gestation period, such as RAPID will help to
generate positive spillover effects on private investment.
Prospects for the global economy remain uncertain
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its
global economic outlook by –0.2 percentage points to 3.8% in 2015, but
still higher than 3.3% in 2014. IMF has also maintained its forecast for the
advanced economies for 2015, projecting to expand from 1.8% in 2014 to
2.3% in 2015.
Fig 11: International growth prospects
Real GDP
Inflation Rate
Change (%)
Change (%)
2013
2014 1
2015 2
2013 1
2014 1
World
3.3
3.3
3.9
3.3
3.7
Developed economies
1.4
1.8
2.3
1.4
1.6
United States
2.2
2.2
3.1
1.5
2.0
Euro area
-0.4
0.8
1.3
0.8
1.0
Japan
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.4
2.7
4.7
4.5
5.0
5.9
5.5
China
7.7
7.4
7.1
2.6
2.3
Republic of Korea
3.0
3.7
3.8
1.3
1.6
India
5.0
5.6
6.4
9.5
7.8
Emerging and
developing economies
ASEAN
Singapore
3.9
3.0
3.0
2.4
1.4
Thailand
2.9
1.5-2.0
4.6
2.2
2.1
Indonesia
5.8
5.2
5.5
6.4
6.0
Philippines
7.2
6.2
6.3
2.9
4.4
Vietnam
5.4
5.5
5.6
6.6
5.2
Malaysia
4.7
5.5 - 6.0
5.0 - 6.0
2.1
3.4
1 Revised
2 Forecast
Source: MOF
In tandem with the downward revision to global growth, MOF expects
exports of goods and services (in real terms) to moderate to 2.1% in 2015,
from 3.5% estimated for 2014. The slower export growth is in tandem with
the moderating global economic growth, especially uncertainty in China.
Major economic indicators point to continued healthy growth
However, the OECD highlighted that its August 2014 composite leading
indicator (CLI) for 33 member countries remained unchanged at 100.4 in
August, signaling sustained growth momentum in the OECD economies.
Similarly, the global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) remained above the
nd
50-mark for the 22 straight month at 52.2 in August, albeit slower than a
high of 53.2 in February, indicating that manufacturers are still positive on
new orders and international trade.
This was in tandem with higher global demand for semiconductors, where
according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global
semiconductor sales rose further by 9.5% yoy to US$28.4bn in August
(US$28.1bn in July).
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 10 of 18
13 October 2014
There is downside risk to the global economic outlook
According to the assessment made by IMF, downside risks have increased
for 2015, attributed to the increase in geopolitical risks, including turmoil in
the Middle East and international tensions surrounding the situation in
Russia and Ukraine. IMF added that “risks of a hard landing in China in
the medium term owing to excess capacity and the credit overhang remain
a concern, given that investment and credit continue to be the main drivers
of growth.” Lastly, IMF cautioned that “downside risks related to an equity
price correction in 2014 have also risen, consistent with the notion that
some valuations could be frothy. In addition, prospects of rising U.S. term
spreads in 2015 due to higher long-term rates are consistent with upside
risks to global growth, based on the past predictive performance of term
spreads.”
Fig 12: Will IMF cut global growth further?
Source: IMF
Services sector to remain the major contributor to GDP
On the sectoral outlook, in view of the favourable domestic demand,
Malaysia’s economic growth will be led by healthy performances in key
sectors such as construction and services sectors.
Fig 13: Government’s forecast on GDP by sector
Change (%)
2013
2014 1
Share of GDP (%)
2015 2
2013
2014 1
2015 2
Contribution to GDP Growth
(pct pts)
2013
2014 1
2015 2
Agriculture
2.1
3.8
3.1
7.1
7.0
6.9
0.1
0.3
0.2
Mining
0.7
0.7
2.8
8.1
7.7
7.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
Manufacturing
3.5
6.4
5.5
24.5
24.7
24.8
0.9
1.5
1.4
10.9
12.7
10.7
3.8
4.0
4.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
Services
5.9
5.9
5.6
55.2
55.3
55.4
3.2
3.3
3.1
(+) Import duties
5.8
7.3
-4.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
GDP
4.7
5.5-6.0
5.0-6.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
4.7
5.5-6.0
5.0-6.0
Construction
1 revised estimate 2 budget estimate
Source: MOF
MOF expects the broad services sector to register a steady growth of 5.6%
in 2015 (5.9% estimated for 2014), with broad-based expansion across all
subsectors. Despite the implementation of GST, MOF also expects the
wholesale and retail trade as well as accommodation and restaurant
subsectors to record strong increases in 2015, driven by strong domestic
consumption and higher tourist arrivals following the Malaysia Year of
Festivals 2015.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 11 of 18
13 October 2014
Growth in the construction sector is projected to slow slightly from 12.7%
estimated for 2014 to 10.7% in 2015 due to high base effect. However,
MOF expects commencement of some O&G related projects such as
RAPID as well as ongoing transportation-related infrastructure projects to
support the sector. The non-residential subsector is also expected to
remain stable supported by encouraging demand for industrial and
commercial buildings. Major commercial building projects such as the
118-storey Menara Warisan and Bukit Bintang City Centre are expected to
contribute to the growth of the sector.
Fig 14: Several infrastructure projects to be implemented in 2015
Several infrastructure projects announced in Budget 2015
RMbn
Construction of the 59-km Sungai Besi – Ulu Klang Expressway (SUKE)
5.3
Construction of the 276-km West Coast Expressway from Taiping to Banting
5.0
Construction of the 47-km Damansara – Shah Alam Highway (DASH)
4.2
Construction of the 36-km Eastern Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE)
1.6
Upgrading the East Coast railway line along Gemas – Mentakab, Jerantut – Sungai
Yu and Gua Musang – Tumpat
0.2
Construction of the 56-km Second MRT Line from Selayang to Putrajaya
LRT 3 Project, which will link Bandar Utama to Shah Alam and Klang
The Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex project
TOTAL
23.0
9.0
69.0
117.3
Source: MOF & Budget speech
Similarly, MOF expects growth in the agriculture sector to remain healthy
at 3.1% in 2015, from 3.8% in 2014, supported by higher commodity
production and increased output of food commodities. The mining sector is
also expected to expand by 2.8% in 2015 (0.7% in 2014) on higher
production of natural gas as well as crude oil (including condensates).
Current account to remain in surplus at RM49bn in 2015
With healthy domestic demand from the private sector, merchandise
imports are expected to increase at a faster rate compared to merchandise
exports in 2015. However, the services account is expected to remain in
deficit, from –RM12.6bn in 2014 to -RM13.1bn in 2015. As such, the MOF
expects the current account surplus to narrow to RM49bn or 4.3% of GNI
in 2015, from RM53.9bn or 5.1% of GNI estimated for 2014, see Fig 15.
The surplus in the goods and services account is still sufficient to offset the
net outflows in the primary and secondary income accounts. According to
MOF, the deficit in the primary income account is likely to be smaller in
2015, supported by improved outlook for corporate returns in tandem with
a favourable business environment.
The MOF expects Malaysian companies investing abroad are expected to
repatriate higher profits, dividends and interest, mitigating the outflows by
MNCs operating in Malaysia. Higher deficit in the secondary income
account is attributed mainly to net outflows as a result of higher
remittances by foreign workers.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 12 of 18
13 October 2014
Fig 15: Balance of Payments
2014 1
Receipts
2015 2
Payments
Net
Receipts
RMbn
Balance on goods and services
Payments
Net
RMbn
849.5
748.7
100.8
883.2
786.5
96.6
Goods
713.5
600.0
113.4
741.5
631.8
109.8
Services
136.0
148.7
-12.6
141.6
154.7
-13.1
Transportation
15.1
47.4
-32.3
16.9
49.4
-32.5
Travel
76.3
40.3
36.0
78.2
42.1
36.2
Other services
44.5
61.0
-16.4
46.4
63.2
-16.8
58.0
86.7
-28.6
63.7
91.4
-27.7
4.7
8.8
-4.1
5.1
9.4
-4.3
53.3
77.9
-24.6
58.6
82.0
-23.4
9.2
27.4
-18.3
9.7
29.6
-19.9
916.7
862.8
53.9
956.5
907.5
49.0
Primary Income
Compensation of employees
Investment Income
Secondary Income
Balance on current account
% of Gross National Income (GNI)
5.1
4.3
1 Estimate
2 Forecast
Source: MOF
Going forward, if there is downside risk to the current account surplus
position, we believe the government will likely delay or sequence projects
with high import content and low multiplier effect on the economy, but will
continue to focus on projects that have low import content and high
multiplier effect, to safeguard the current account surplus in 2015.
Fig 16: Current account position
Source: MOF
Malaysia’s economic fundamentals improved with lower deficit
In 2015, Malaysia fiscal deficit will likely improve to 3% of GDP and the
debt servicing capacity remains strong. Based on international standards,
especially in the Euro area, under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of
the Maastricht Treaty, EU member countries have to adopt rules that limit
the size of the government deficit to 3% of GDP and overall government
debt to 60% of GDP.
If the Malaysian Government can be successful in containing the deficits
further going forward, we believe the country's sovereign risk may be
upgraded by international rating agencies. The economy continues to
record sizeable current account surpluses, with healthy foreign reserves
and high savings, likely to support Ringgit in 2015.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 13 of 18
13 October 2014
Inflationary pressure will rise with introduction of GST
Going into 2015, MOF expects inflation to increase to 4-5% (3.4%
estimated for 2014), partly reflecting the implementation of GST and
spillover effect of fuel subsidy reduction in October 2014. According to
MOF, the implementation of the GST will have a transitory impact on the
cost of goods and services.
In most countries introducing VAT/GST system for the first time, the direct
impact of the increase on the inflation rate will likely to be one-off, with
inflation reverting to its underlying trend thereafter. We believe inflation is
expected to average around 4.5% in 2015, at the mid-point of the official
estimate of 4-5%.
Another 25bps hike in OPR from 3.25% to 3.5% in 1H15
On the direction of Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), following BNM’s recent
move to maintain its policy rate at 3.25% in September, we believe BNM
will likely keep its current accommodative policy stance to support
country’s domestic demand, especially private consumption spending.
However, following the implementation of GST, at the level of 4.0-5.0%
inflation rate in 2015, which may be above Bank Negara Malaysia's
comfort zone target, we believe BNM will normalise its overnight policy rate
(OPR), possibly another 25bps hike in OPR from 3.25% to 3.5% in 1H15.
However, should the global economy enter a new phase of slower growth
during the course of 2015 and adversely affect the outlook for the
Malaysian economy, we believe that BNM will likely maintain its
accommodative monetary policy stance.
Fig 17: Inflation and overnight policy rate (OPR)
Source: DOS & CEIC
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 14 of 18
13 October 2014
APPENDIX - KEY DATA AND FORECASTS
Population (million)
2013
2014
29.9
30.3
RMm
% growth
RMm
1
2015
2
30.6
% growth
RMm
% growth
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Gross Domestic Product (constant 2005 prices)
787,611
4.7
832,773
5.5-6.0
876,446
5.0-6.0
Agriculture
56,095
2.1
58,245
3.8
60,051
3.1
Mining and quarrying
63,680
0.7
64,136
0.7
65,930
2.8
193,237
3.5
205,534
6.4
216,921
5.5
29,554
10.9
33,297
12.7
36,864
10.7
434,460
5.9
460,202
5.9
485,803
5.6
730,485
5.3
786,384
7.7
840,229
6.8
515,327
7.0
544,369
5.6
573,008
5.3
Public
105,510
6.3
107,748
2.1
111,872
3.8
Private
409,817
7.2
436,621
6.5
461,136
5.6
217,879
8.5
235,949
8.3
255,951
8.5
Public 3
86,176
2.2
88,395
2.6
92,556
4.7
Private
131,703
13.1
147,554
12.0
163,395
10.7
Exports of goods and services
705,260
0.6
729,602
3.5
745,011
2.1
Imports of goods and services
649,404
2.0
672,296
3.5
698,966
4.0
Gross National Income (current prices)
952,607
5.2
1,049,538
10.2
1,148,003
9.4
Gross National Savings (current prices)
297,354
-0.4
340,454
14.5
373,674
9.8
Per capital income (current prices, RM)
31,843
3.7
34,682
8.9
37,486
8.1
Purchasing Power Parity, USD
22,460
4.8
22,958
2.2
23,512
2.4
213,370
2.6
225,094
5.5
235,219
4.5
211,270
2.8
221,112
4.7
223,440
1.1
2,100
-
3,982
-
11,779
-
40,684
-8.2
41,273
1.4
47,467
15.0
Overall Deficit
-38,584
-
-37,291
-
-35,688
-
% to GDP
-3.9
-
-3.5
-
-3.0
-
39,526
-
37,557
-
-
-
Foreign borrowings (net)
-221
-
-426
-
-
-
Change in assets
-721
-
160
-
-
-
Manufacturing
Construction
Services
NATIONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURE
Gross National Income (constant 2005 prices)
Final Consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE
Revenue
Operating expenditure
Current account surplus
Development expenditure (net)
Domestic borrowings (net)
RMm
% GDP
RMm
% GDP
RMm
% GDP
Fed Govt Debt
539,858
54.7
568,893
52.8
-
-
Domestic debt
523,095
53.0
552,652
51.3
-
-
4,320
0.4
4,320
0.4
-
-
Investment Issues
172,500
17.5
188,000
17.4
-
-
Government Securities
305,075
30.9
315,532
29.3
-
-
Housing Loan Fund
41,200
4.2
44,800
4.2
-
-
Offshore borrowing
16,763
1.7
16,241
1.5
-
-
Market loan
10,791
1.1
10,545
1.0
-
-
Project loans
5,971
0.6
5,696
0.5
-
-
141,669
14.4
155,619
14.4
-
-
Treasury Bills
Memorandum item:
Non-residents holdings of ringgit-denominated
Government debt securities
1 Estimate 2 Forecast 3 January to August 2014 4 January to July 2014 5 January to June 2014 5 Forecast by Economic Planning Unit
Source: MOF
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 15 of 18
13 October 2014
APPENDIX - KEY DATA AND FORECASTS
1
2013
2014
RMm
RMm
2015
2
RMm
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (NET)
Current Account
39,907
53,891
49,049
Goods
108,230
113,443
109,779
Services
-16,693
-12,638
-13,137
Income
-34,126
-28,638
-27,700
Current transfers
-17,504
-18,276
-19,893
Financial Account
-15,828
-
-
Overall Balance
14,649
-
RMm
% growth
RMm
% growth
RMm
% growth
EXTERNAL TRADE
Total Exports
719,815
2.4
762,788
6.0
787,197
3.2
548,344
5.1
582,007
6.1
600,986
3.3
Agriculture
68,843
-14.4
71,931
4.5
74,784
4.0
Mining
97,501
3.3
103,739
6.4
107,409
3.5
649,068
7.0
677,235
4.3
713,129
5.3
98,562
2.6
100,231
1.7
105,900
5.7
Intermediate goods
379,351
4.3
396,725
4.6
420,033
5.9
Consumption goods
47,569
8.7
50,115
5.4
51,345
2.5
Manufactures
Total Imports
Capital goods
Total Trade
1,368,883
1,440,023
1,500,326
70,747
85,553
74,068
Balance of Trade
Index
% growth
Index
% growth
Index
% growth
PRICES
Consumer Price Index (2010=100)
107.1
2.1
110.03
3.33
-
Producer Price Index (2000=100)
125.4
-2.0
128.44
2.94
-
('000)
% growth
('000)
% growth
('000)
4.0-5.0
% growth
LABOUR
Labour Force4
Unemployed (Unemployment Rate, %)
13,634.6
4
424.6
3.9
13,849.05
1.65
-
-
(3.1)
5
(3.0)5
-
(3.0)6
410.7
1 Estimate 2 Forecast 3 January to August 2014 4 January to July 2014 5 January to June 2014 5 Forecast by Economic Planning Unit
Source: MOF
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 16 of 18
13 October 2014
APPENDIX - KEY DATA AND FORECASTS
2013
2014
End-July
End-July
RMm
% growth
RMm
% growth
MONEY AND BANKING
Money Supply
M1
304,167
12.3
331,857
9.1
M2
1,414,982
9.2
1,489,330
5.6
M3
1,430,630
8.5
1,503,684
5.7
Deposits
1,476,759
8.0
1,572,291
6.5
Loans
1,171,810
9.2
1,272,985
8.6
Banking System (including Islamic banks)
End-July (%)
Loan-deposits ratio (end of period)
1
End-July (%)
82.9
85.5
July
July
3.17
3.42
3-month
2.97
3.12
12-month
3.15
3.30
Savings deposits
1.01
1.07
Base lending rate (BLR)
6.53
6.78
Treasury bill (3-month)
2.97
3.15
Malaysian government securities (1-year)2
3.11
3.21
Malaysian government securities (5-year)2
3.68
3.67
End-July
End-July
Interest Rates (average rates at end of period)
3-months interbank
Commercial banks:
Fixed deposits
% annual
change3
RM per unit
% annual
change3
RM per unit
Movement of Ringgit (end-period against)
SDR
4.8964
-3.2
4.8893
0.1
USD
3.2285
-2.6
3.1890
1.2
Euro
4.2789
-9.7
4.2721
0.2
100 Yen
3.2838
22.5
3.1029
5.8
Bursa Malaysia (end-period)
FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite
Index
Market Capitalisation (RM billion)
1,772.62
1,871.36
1,611.09
1,783.69
1 Excludes transactions by financial institutions 2 Market indicative yield 3 Annual rate of appreciation (+) or depreciation (-) of the Ringgit
Source: MOF
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 17 of 18
13 October 2014
Equity Rating Structure and Definitions
BUY
Total return is expected to exceed +15% over a 12-month period
TRADING BUY (TR Total return is expected to exceed +15% over a 3-month period due to short-term positive development, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant a
BUY)
Buy call. This is to cater to investors who are willing to take on higher risks
ADD
Total return is expected to be between 0% to +15% over a 12-month period
REDUCE
Total return is expected to be between 0% to -15% over a 12-month period
TRADING SELL
(TR SELL)
Total return is expected to exceed -15% over a 3-month period due to short-term negative development, but fundamentals are strong enough to avoid a Sell
call. This is to cater to investors who are willing to take on higher risks
SELL
Total return is expected to be below -15% over a 12-month period
NOT RATED
Affin Investment Bank does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation
OVERWEIGHT
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank
Berhad) (“the Company”) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does
not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or
rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing
view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the
Company’s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its
associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss
of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the
Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any
securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or
take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report.
Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial
status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to
seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment
strategies or transactions discussed in this report.
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for any damages of any kind relating to such data.
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The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation.
This report is printed and published by:
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U)
(formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad)
A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd
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3rd Floor, Chulan Tower,
No 3, Jalan Conlay,
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Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
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