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Focus
Scope
Research team
Ukraine
Economics, bonds, equity &
FX markets
Alexander Valchyshen
Alexander Martynenko
Taras Kotovych
Mykhaylo Demkiv
Bogdan Vorotilin
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
WEDNESDAY, 8 OCTOBER 2014
Contents
Economics: News & Comments
UX Index (3 months to 8 Oct 2014)
2
FX reserves stat data for September ................................................................ 2
IMF publishes WEO: Ukraine data look irrelevant ............................................ 2
1400.0
1350.0
1300.0
1250.0
1200.0
Bonds: News & Comments
3
1150.0
Chart page: Local bond market & Eurobond markets ....................................... 4
1100.0
1050.0
FX: News & Comments
7
Hryvnia at 12.95/USD, dollar's rally hits plateau ............................................... 7
1000.0
7-Jul
7-Aug
7-Sep
7-Oct
Source: UX.
Chart page #1: Foreign-exchange market ........................................................ 8
Chart page #2: ICU's UAH trade-weighted indices ........................................... 9
Key market indicators (as of 7 Oct 2014)
Last
Daily
chg (%)
YTD
chg (%)
FX & MONEY RATES
USD/UAH
12.9500
+0.00
+57.16
USD/UAH (1Y NDF)
EUR/USD
16.0500
1.2669
+0.00
+0.11
+70.38
-7.81
USD/RUB
KievPRIME O/N (%)
39.9462
8.00
+0.30
+0bp
+21.53
+20bp
KievPRIME 1M (%)
15.38
+21bp
-87bp
SOVEREIGN EUROBONDS: yields and spreads
Ukraine 15, Eurobond (%)
18.29
-78bp +993bp
Ukraine 17, Eurobond (%)
13.99
-39bp +443bp
Ukraine 22, Eurobond (%)
Ukraine 23, Eurobond (%)
Ukraine 5Y CDS
10.36
10.33
-9bp +101bp
-17bp +128bp
1,285bp
+0bp +468bp
EQUITIES
Stock market indices
UX (Ukraine)
1,062.69
-1.11
+16.77
MSCI World
MSCI EM
408.98
1,010.86
-0.97
+0.05
+0.11
+0.81
RTS (Russia)
WIG-20 (Poland)
1,106.80
2,436.39
-1.20
-0.43
-23.28
+1.47
S&P 500 (USA)
1,935.10
-1.51
+4.69
Notes: Chg – percentage change, if not otherwise indicated;
[1] – total traded volume for stocks listed in
green- or red-shaded box means gain or loss, respectively,
of the index or security.
Sources: Bloomberg, UX, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
READ FIRST THE DISCLOSURES SECTION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
Economics: News & Comments
FX reserves stat data for September
Although FX reserves were reported to have increased to US$16.2bn over the last month,
the reality of this announcement is less rosy and more complicated. Not only did NBU
authorities postpone the US$1.6bn Naftogaz Eurobond redemption from September 30 to
very early October to retain FX reserves for September's month-end statistic, it appears that
the NBU used the reserves to sell FX to support the hryvnia (US$0.8bn, net). In terms of
net debt, September should have reported a total of US$1.1bn in inflows (excluding the
Naftogaz debt, while including the US$1.3bn in IMF funds) and the net debt outflow in
October is estimated at US$1.3bn (including the Naftogaz debt).
IMF publishes WEO: Ukraine data look irrelevant
In its semiannual report published yesterday, World Economic Outlook for 2H14, the IMF
revised downward its forecast for the pace of global growth. As far as Ukraine is concerned,
the IMF's real growth forecast for 2014 and 2015 is irrelevant. This year's real growth rate
was -6.5% and inflation in terms of CPI was indicated at 11%. This forecast missed the
current pace of CPI that exceeds 17%.
Alexander Valchyshen, Kiev, +38044 2200120 ext.721
2
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
Bonds: News & Comments
Yield curve of the local bond market
(as of market close on 7 Oct 2014)
NDF yields
120.0
KievPrime
Sovereigns
(%)
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
Duration (days)
0.0
0
180
360
540
720
900
1,080
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Bond market indicators (as of 7 Oct 2014)
Last
Daily Weekly
MoM
YTD
chg (%) chg (%) chg (%) chg (%)
MONEY MARKET KIEV PRIME RATES (%)
O/n
8.00
+0bp
-20bp
-10bp
+20bp
1wk
10.31
+14bp
-19bp
+6bp
+51bp
1m
15.38
+21bp
-32bp
+28bp
-87bp
2m
18.00
+0bp
+0bp
+0bp +160bp
3m
18.00
+0bp
+0bp
+0bp +200bp
LIQUIDITY WIDE MEASUREMENT (UAHm)
CB acc’s1 31,747
+0.30
-11.55
+1.32
CDs2
7,308
-13.03
-78.34
-44.77 +936.6
6,769
+0.00
+3.05 +53.03 +352.8
45,824
-2.14
-39.87
Sovgns3
Total
-2.92
-6.46 +31.29
HOLDERS OF UAH SOVEREIGN BONDS (UAHm)
C.bank
269,142
+0.29
Banks
83,890
-0.82
-1.93
Resid’s4
14,247
+0.49
+0.34
-29.94 +14.93
19,420
+0.06
-0.05
+2.42 +66.00
386,699
+0.04
+0.29
+6.36 +55.23
Non-res5
Total
+1.03 +13.70 +85.81
-4.20
+4.64
NDF IMPLIED YIELDS (%)
3m
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6m
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9m
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1yr
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
LOCAL CURRENCY UAH SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS (%)
Mar '13
N/A
-52ppt
+0bp
+0bp
+0bp
Jan '14
N/A +320bp
+0bp
+0bp
-676bp
Aug '156
N/A +542bp
+0bp +542bp
-81ppt
EUROBONDS USD SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS (%)
CDS 5yr
1,285
+0bp
-33bp +295bp +468bp
Jun '16
14.45
-27bp
-88bp +285bp +556bp
Jul '17
13.99
-39bp
-55bp +257bp +443bp
Sep '20
10.89
-19bp
-23bp +139bp +170bp
Sep '21
10.96
-9bp
-22bp +137bp +174bp
Sep '22
10.36
-9bp
-19bp
+94bp +101bp
Feb '23
10.33
-17bp
-8bp
+96bp +128bp
Notes: [1] banks’ account balance at NBU; [2] certificates of
deposits issued by NBU; [3] UAH sovereign bonds due next
30 days; [4] residents; [5] non-residents; [6] VAT bond.
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Section on Bond market is continued on next page.
3
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
Chart page: Local bond market & Eurobond markets
Chart 1. Kiev Prime rates (%), last 12-month period
ON
1W
1M
Chart 2. UAH NDF implied yields (%), last 12-month period
2M
3M
3M
80.0
(%)
30.0
6M
9M
1Y
(%)
70.0
25.0
18.00
20.0
52.88
60.0
50.0
15.0
40.0
10.0
30.0
5.0
8.00
0.0
20.0
24.65
10.0
-5.0
9-Sep
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
0.0
9-Sep
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 3. UAH sovereign yield curve (%) as of 7 Oct 2014
Chart 4. USD sovereign yield curve (%) as of 7 Oct 2014
Week ago, 30-Sep-14
A week ago
20.0
Last, 7-Oct-14
Last
(%)
25.0
15.0
Week ago, 21-Aug-14
Last, 7-Oct-14
Week ago
Last
(%)
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
Duration (days)
0.0
Duration (yrs)
0.0
0
180
360
540
720
900
1,080
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 5. Banking sector liquidity (UAHbn), last 12-month period
Chart 6. Breakdown of liquidity pool (%) as of 7 Oct 2014
Central bank accounts
100.0
(UAHbn)
CDs
Sovgn bonds due next 30 days
As of 7 October 2014 wide liquidity was UAH45,823.84m
Sovgn bonds due
next 30 days
14.8
7.0
100% = UAH45,823.84m, as of 7-Oct-14
80.0
60.0
CDs
15.9
40.0
Central bank
accounts
69.3
20.0
0.0
9-Sep
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, ICU.
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, ICU.
Chart 7. Holders of sovereign bonds (UAHbn), last 12 months
Chart 8. Domestic sovereign debt (%) as of 7 Oct 2014
NBU
Banks
500.0
(UAHbn)
Other residents
Non-residents 100% = UAH386,699.0m, as of 7-Oct-14
Other residents 5.0
3.7
Non-residents
400.0
Banks
21.7
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
9-Sep
As of 7 October 2014 total stock of UAH sovereign bonds amounted to
UAH386,698.99m
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
NBU
69.6
9-Sep
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
4
Share price performance (% change)
Company
Bloomberg
Ticker
ENERGY
Cadogan Petrol...
Centrenergo
Coal Energy
YTD
Valuation (US$)
YoY
Last Market
price cap (m)
Free float (FF) & Liquidity
EV
(m)
P/E
FF
FF Last day 3M avg. FF share
FF
(%) mkt cap turnover turnover
traded turnover
(US$m) (US$ 000) (US$ 000)
(%)
(days)
EV/EBITDA
Listing
Last
price
Daily
MoM
2013 2014E 2014E
CAD LN
London
10.75 GBp
+1.2
-8.5
+3.6
-31.7
0.17
39.9
-23.2
40.2
16.0
8.6
28.4
0.11
928
Neg.
Neg.
Neg.
3.5
N/A
CEEN UK
Kiev, UX
7.24 UAH
-1.1
-7.2
+51.8
+46.3
0.56
206.5
261.3
21.7
44.8
19.3
185.0
0.11
932
5.5
4.8
7.2
0.3
3.8
EV/Sales
2013 2014E 2014E
Ratios
2013 2014E 2014E
P/B Debt/
(x) Assets
(%)
N/A
Neg.
Neg.
Neg.
0.2
0.0
3.9
0.5
0.3
0.3
1.1
16.3
Warsaw
0.91 PLN
+3.4
-12.5
-13.3
-68.2
0.27
12.4
138.3
25.0
3.1
8.0
50.1
1.56
64
Neg.
N/A
N/A
6.1
N/A
N/A
1.1
N/A
N/A
0.1
39.8
DOEN UK
Kiev, UX
29.42 UAH
+2.7
+4.5
+6.6
+27.9
2.27
53.7
115.0
14.2
7.6
5.5
26.4
0.17
598
1.3
1.3
1.4
0.1
1.9
1.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
1.1
25.1
JKX Oil & Gas
JKX LN
London
50.75 GBp
-0.5
+10.3
-29.0
-23.1
0.82
140.0
145.1
47.2
66.1
24.8
43.8
0.06
1,646
21.5
23.3
4.2
2.2
2.9
2.3
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.3
5.5
Regal Petroleum
RPT LN
London
7.25 GBp
-9.4
-0.1
-44.2
-47.3
0.12
37.3
10.5
80.9
30.2
4.0
9.5
0.04
2,633
Neg.
18.7
N/A
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
ZAEN UK Kiev, PFTS
140.00 UAH
+0.0
+7.7
+54.9
+57.8
10.81
138.3
228.2
5.0
6.9
12.6
1.9
0.03
2,993
3.1
N/A
N/A
1.5
N/A
N/A
0.3
N/A
N/A
1.2
0.0
Zakhidenergo
METALLURGY
Alchevsky Meta... ALMK UK
Kiev, UX
0.02 UAH
-5.5
-22.6
-37.9
-40.9
0.00
48.0 2,259.8
3.9
1.9
1.9
11.3
0.22
461
Neg.
Neg.
N/A
Neg.
Neg.
N/A
2.0
1.2
N/A
N/A
85.7
Avdiyivsky Cok...
AVDK UK
Kiev, UX
2.32 UAH
-0.1
-6.6
-21.8
-27.4
0.18
34.9
31.1
4.0
1.4
0.9
9.9
0.44
227
Neg.
225.9
0.6
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Azovstal
AZST UK
Kiev, UX
0.64 UAH
-0.9
-14.2
-4.2
+2.4
0.05
208.4
N/A
4.1
8.5
34.4
11.6
0.20
498
Neg.
Neg.
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.2
0.0
Ferrexpo PLC
FXPO LN
London
102.80 GBp
-0.2
-21.5
-44.7
-39.2
1.65
971.8 1,174.2
22.4
217.7
728.3
1,028.5
0.64
156
3.7
3.4
6.3
2.3
2.3
3.3
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
35.1
Yasynivsky Cok...
YASK UK
Kiev, UX
0.42 UAH
+0.0
-17.2
-21.7
-26.7
0.03
8.8
9.6
9.0
0.8
0.0
3.8
0.65
153
Neg.
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
Yenakievo Steel
ENMZ UK
Kiev, UX
24.38 UAH
-6.9
-26.0
-23.8
-27.6
1.88
19.9
9.7
9.4
1.9
0.6
10.1
0.26
387
Neg.
Neg.
N/A
1.7
0.3
N/A
0.0
0.0
N/A
1.1
0.0
35.9
FOOD AND AGRIBUSINESS
AgroGeneration
ALAGR FP
EN Paris
0.56 EUR
-12.5
-35.6
-54.8
-60.3
0.71
65.3
119.8
34.0
22.2
100.9
7.7
0.08
1,257
Neg.
N/A
N/A
Neg.
N/A
N/A
1.8
N/A
N/A
1.2
Agroliga
AGL PW
Warsaw
13.98 PLN
-3.6
-17.7
-46.1
-52.5
4.22
6.5
7.3
16.7
1.1
1.6
2.0
0.38
263
1.6
N/A
N/A
2.1
N/A
N/A
0.4
N/A
N/A
0.6
5.7
Agroton
AGT PW
Warsaw
1.97 PLN
+0.0
-10.9
+1.0
-17.9
0.59
12.9
58.2
26.2
3.4
4.0
66.4
1.15
87
Neg.
1.8
1.6
21.7
6.1
3.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.1
28.4
Astarta Holdin...
AST PW
Warsaw
35.46 PLN
-3.6
-9.4
-47.0
-50.1
10.69
267.3
513.3
31.0
82.9
4.1
115.4
0.28
351
8.2
26.5
4.1
6.8
4.1
4.6
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.7
38.2
Avangard
AVGR LI London Intl
7.89 USD
-0.1
-3.8
-32.9
-29.9
7.89
503.9
637.7
21.7
109.4
8.0
118.2
0.09
1,076
2.1
3.5
3.0
2.1
3.6
3.5
1.0
1.1
1.0
0.5
17.8
IMC
IMC PW
Warsaw
6.70 PLN
-2.9
-19.8
-44.9
-55.0
2.02
63.2
204.4
23.9
15.1
1.6
21.0
0.17
600
2.4
Neg.
1.6
3.8
3.7
3.7
1.8
1.1
1.1
0.4
38.7
Kernel Holding...
KER PW
Warsaw
24.70 PLN
-1.9
-2.6
-35.1
-50.8
7.45
593.5 1,500.1
58.8
348.8
1,460.9
934.8
0.22
445
5.3
81.3
4.1
5.2
6.8
4.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
30.6
KSG Agro
KSG PW
Warsaw
1.19 PLN
-3.3
-29.6
-89.0
-90.1
0.36
116.5
34.4
1.9
47.0
189.7
11.70
9
Neg.
0.5
0.3
4.4
3.0
2.4
1.6
1.2
1.0
0.3
44.0
MHP
MHPC LI London Intl
11.50 USD
-2.6
-5.0
-32.6
-23.3
11.50 1,215.2 2,425.5
22.3
271.2
20.0
1,239.1
0.29
343
7.8
10.4
4.2
6.2
5.1
4.8
1.6
1.7
1.5
2.1
47.0
Milkiland
MLK PW
Warsaw
3.71 PLN
-2.9
-24.3
-70.3
-70.1
1.12
35.0
161.9
20.0
7.0
4.4
7.2
0.19
513
2.6
Neg.
8.2
4.9
4.2
4.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
30.8
Mriya Agrohold...
MAYA GF Frankfurt
1.43 EUR
-5.0
-25.0
-73.6
-68.0
1.80
191.2
918.9
20.0
38.2
0.0
3.0
0.01
18,855
2.2
2.2
0.9
5.6
3.4
3.1
1.8
2.2
2.1
0.4
45.3
Ovostar Union
5.4
OVO PW
Warsaw
67.00 PLN
-2.9
-5.5
-33.0
-32.0
20.21
121.2
128.8
25.0
30.3
5.6
31.9
0.05
1,905
4.0
6.2
6.1
3.5
4.9
4.5
1.4
1.7
1.4
0.9
8.5
KDM PW
Warsaw
6.10 PLN
+1.7
-17.2
-80.6
-81.3
1.84
17.1
0.6
10.9
1.9
1.6
0.7
0.01
6,706
2.5
N/A
N/A
0.1
N/A
N/A
0.0
N/A
N/A
0.3
5.6
TR61 GF
Xetra
0.23 EUR
+0.0
+29.1
-28.7
-36.3
0.29
14.8
190.4
13.1
1.9
0.0
0.2
0.01
7,174
Neg.
N/A
N/A
Neg.
N/A
N/A
5.6
N/A
N/A
0.1
45.5
Kiev, UX
0.12 UAH
-1.7
-7.6
+8.8
+40.1
0.01
285.9
N/A
3.8
10.9
12.1
20.0
0.15
657
3.6
Neg.
12.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.5
22.4
TRANSPORTATION
KDM Shipping
CONSTRUCTION
TMM
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Raiffeisen Ban...
BAVL UK
5
5
Daily Insight IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
CLE PW
Donbasenergo
8 October 2014
Table 1. Ukrainian stocks (closing prices as of 7-Oct-2014)
Share price performance (% change)
Company
Ukrsotsbank
Bloomberg
Ticker
Listing
USCB UK
Kiev, UX
Last
price
0.14 UAH
Daily
+0.0
MoM
-14.8
YTD
-23.0
Valuation (US$)
YoY
-20.3
Last Market
price cap (m)
0.01
202.1
Free float (FF) & Liquidity
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV
(m)
FF
FF Last day 3M avg. FF share
FF
(%) mkt cap turnover turnover
traded turnover
(US$m) (US$ 000) (US$ 000)
(%)
(days)
2013 2014E 2014E
N/A
4.5
Neg.
9.1
0.0
4.4
0.01
9,390
10.7
N/A
EV/Sales
2013 2014E 2014E
N/A
N/A
N/A
Ratios
2013 2014E 2014E
N/A
N/A
N/A
P/B Debt/
(x) Assets
(%)
0.3
8 October 2014
Table 1. Ukrainian stocks (closing prices as of 7-Oct-2014)
28.2
Notes: mln - millions; FF - free float; n/a - not available; neg. - negative; a company name (the left column of the table) is shortened to fit the column and hence in some cases is not displayed in full; *** - P/E is above 10,000x. Sources: Bloomberg, ICU.
Daily Insight IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
6
6
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
FX: News & Comments
ICU’s UAH trade-weighted indices
Hryvnia at 12.95/USD, dollar's rally hits plateau
(Last 12-month history to 8 Oct 2014)
The hryvnia held its routine rate of 12.95/USD yesterday on US$168m in
Nominal (lhs)
trading. The weighted average rate also landed near 12.97/USD. Over the
70.0
past three months the US dollar's rally sent global currencies to multi-year
65.0
lows. This trend is likely has come to an end, hence, pressure on UAH is
60.0
likely to subside too after the upcoming elections are over.
55.0
Real CPI-based (rhs)
105.0
RESEARCH INSIGHT
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
50.0
Alexander Valchyshen, Kiev, +38044 2200120 ext.242
80.0
45.0
75.0
40.0
9-Sep
70.0
9-Dec
9-Mar
9-Jun
9-Sep
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
FX market indicators (as of 7 Oct 2014)
Last
Daily Weekly
MoM
YTD
chg (%) chg (%) chg (%) chg (%)
USD/UAH MARKET (HRYVNIA per US DOLLAR)
Spot mkt
12.9500
+0.00
+0.00
NBU avg
12.9663
+0.13
+0.13
+1.12 +59.08
Ttl vlm1
223.38 +16.14
-5.36
-39.37
-92.03
$ volume2
168.33 +25.37 +12.42
-21.79
-92.39
NDF 3M
14.6500
NDF 6M
NDF 1Y
+1.17 +57.16
+0.00
+0.00
+7.37 +72.66
15.1000
-0.66
+0.00
+8.09 +71.98
16.0500
+0.00
+0.00
+8.01 +70.38
TRADE-WEIGHTED INDICES (TWIs, points)
UAH nom’l
47.780
+0.07
+0.16
+2.50
-29.25
UAH real CPI
79.605
+0.07
+0.16
+2.50
-21.24
UAH real PPI 119.893
+0.07
+0.16
+2.50
-13.61
USD nom’l
-0.30
-0.31
+2.31
+7.04
85.672
FX RATES OF KEY CURRENCIES THAT SHAPE UAH’s TWIs
USD/RUB
39.9462
+0.30
+0.87
+7.83 +21.53
EUR/USD
1.2669
+0.11
+0.30
-2.18
-7.81
USD/CNY
6.1401
+0.03
+0.01
-0.02
+1.42
USD/PLN
3.3023
-0.01
-0.24
+2.34
+9.24
USD/TRY
2.2750
+0.32
-0.14
+5.41
+5.90
USD/BYR 10,670.00
+0.09
+0.76
+1.62 +11.84
USD/KZT
+0.01
-0.05
-0.15 +17.87
181.8400
OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES
USD/JPY
108.0300
-0.69
-1.48
+2.80
GBP/USD
1.6096
+0.07
-0.72
-1.41
+2.58
-2.78
USD/CHF
0.9568
-0.16
+0.18
+2.76
+7.16
AUD/USD
0.8817
+0.62
+0.80
-5.98
-1.12
USD/CAD
1.1175
+0.39
-0.21
+2.71
+5.20
USD/BRL
2.3966
-1.22
-2.06
+6.91
+1.46
USD/KRW 1,066.10
-0.27
+1.03
+4.09
+1.55
Gold($/oz) 1,208.98
+0.14
+0.07
-4.72
+0.28
WTI crude3
88.85
-1.65
-2.53
-4.76
-9.72
Brent crd3
91.01
-1.24
-2.32
-9.13
-17.88
Urals crd3
N/A
+0.00
+0.00
+0.00
+0.00
TR/J CRB4
279.98
-0.09
+0.51
-2.79
-0.07
COMMIDITIES
Readers may follow the ICU trade-weighted indices of the local-currency,
the hryvnia (UAH), on the ICU website and Bloomberg (type: ALLX UTWI
<GO>).
Section on FX market is continued on next page.
Notes: [1] trading volume in all foreign currencies (US$m);
[2] trading volume in the pair USD/UAH (US$m);
[3] crude oil price (USD per barrel); [4] the Thomson Reuters/
Jefferies CRB Index. A green-/red-shaded box means gain or
loss, respectively, of the investment into the asset.
Currencies are gaining when their exchange rates strengthen 7
versus USD.
Sources: Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
Chart page #1: Foreign-exchange market
Chart 9. Spot market rates USD/UAH: last 12-month and 5-year periods (UAH per USD, left and right respectively)
Mkt close
Weighted average rate
Mkt close
15.0
Weighted average rate
15.0
14.0
12.9663
14.0
13.4341
13.0
13.0
12.9500
12.0
12.0
11.0
11.0
10.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
8.0
8.0
9-Sep
7.0
7-Sep-09
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
7.9486
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 10. NDF market rates USD/UAH: last 12-month and 5-year periods (UAH per USD, left and right respectively)
3M
6M
9M
1Y
3M
18.0
6M
9M
1Y
18.0
16.050
15.825
15.100
14.650
16.0
14.0
16.050
16.0
14.650
14.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
8.0
8.0
9-Sep
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
6.0
7-Sep-09
9-Sep
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 11. Trading volume: last 12-month and 5-year periods (US$m, left and right respectively)
All ccy's trading volume
6,000
USD trading volume
All ccy's trading volume
(US$m)
5,000
5.0
4,000
4.0
3,000
3.0
2,000
2.0
1,000
1.0
0
9-Sep
USD trading volume
6.0 (US$m)
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
0.0
7-Sep-09
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 12. 30D MA* ratio of FX market turnover to merchandise trade: last 12m and 5yr periods (%, left and right respectively)
700.0
700.0
600.0
600.0
500.0
500.0
400.0
400.0
300.0
300.0
654.11
200.0
106.47
100.0
0.0
9-Sep
200.0
100.0
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
0.0
7-Sep-09
90.04
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Note: * 30-day moving average; The boxes of the right chart show high and low values. Sources: NBU, State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Bloomberg, Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
8
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
Chart page #2: ICU's UAH trade-weighted indices
The following charts depict ICU's Ukrainian hryvnia trade-weighted indices which were calculated in accordance with methodology
published in the Quarterly Report "Keep the music playing" dated 31 January 2013 and, then, updated, in the Quarterly Report
"Muddling through no more" dated 14 August 2013.
Chart 13. Nominal and CPI-based real TWIs of UAH, history of
last 12-month period
Nominal (lhs)
Chart 14. Nominal, CPI- and PPI-based TWIs of UAH,
history of last 5-year period
Real CPI-based (rhs)
Nominal
70.0
65.0
105.0
160.0
100.0
140.0
95.0
60.0
Real CPI-based
Real PPI-based
120.0
119.89
90.0
55.0
100.0
50.0
85.0
47.78
80.0
80.0
45.0
79.6175.0
60.0
79.61
47.78
40.0
9-Sep
70.0
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
9-Sep
Note: The boxes indicate the last values of the depicted indicators.
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
40.0
7-Sep-09
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Note: The boxes indicate the last values of the depicted indicators.
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 15. Deviation of UAH trade-weighted indices from their 5-year moving averages: last 12-month and 5-year periods (%, left and right respectively)
Nominal 5yr
CPI 5yr
PPI 5yr
Nominal 5yr
30.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
PPI 5yr
CPI 5yr
UAH overvalued
10.0
10.0
+0.75
0.0
+5.64
0.0
-10.0
-10.0
-14.42
-20.66
-20.0
-30.0
9-Sep
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
-20.0
-30.0
-30.34
-40.0
7-Sep-09
9-Sep
Note: The boxes indicate the last values of the depicted indicators.
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
UAH undervalued
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Note: the boxes indicate the high and low values of CPI-based TWI.
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
Chart 16. Deviation of UAH trade-weighted indices from their 10-year moving averages: last 12-month and 5-year periods (%, left and right respectively)
Nominal 10yr
CPI 10yr
PPI 10yr
Nominal 10yr
20.0
20.0
10.0
10.0
PPI 10yr
CPI 10yr
UAH overvalued
0.0
0.0
-4.71
-7.65
-10.0
-10.0
-20.0
-20.0
-25.29
-29.80
-30.0
-40.0
9-Sep
9-Nov
9-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
9-Jul
Note: The boxes indicate the last values of the depicted indicators.
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
9-Sep
-30.0
-34.76
-40.0
-50.0
7-Sep-09
7-Sep-10
7-Sep-11
7-Sep-12
UAH undervalued
7-Sep-13
7-Sep-14
Note: the boxes indicate the high and low values of CPI-based TWI.
Source: Investment Capital Ukraine LLC.
9
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
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Economics: News & Comments
2
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Bonds: News & Comments
3
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Chart page: Local bond market & Eurobond markets ....................................... 4
Equities: News & Comments
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FX: News & Comments
7
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Chart page #1: Foreign-exchange market ........................................................ 8
Chart page #2: ICU's UAH trade-weighted indices ........................................... 9
10
8 October 2014
Daily Insight
IMF's Ukraine data look irrelevant
Disclosures
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
This research publication has been prepared by the analyst(s), whose name(s) appear on the front page of this publication.
The analyst(s) hereby certifies that the views expressed within this publication accurately reflect her/his own views about
the subject financial instruments or issuers and no part of her/his compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views within this research publication.
EQUITY RATING DEFINITIONS
Buy:
Forecasted 12-month total return greater than 20%
Hold:
Forecasted 12-month total return 0% to 20%
Sell:
Forecasted 12-month total return less than 0%
Note: total return is share price appreciation to a target price in relative terms plus forecasted dividend yield.
DEBT RATING DEFINITIONS
Buy:
Forecasted 12-month total return significantly greater than that of relevant benchmark
Hold:
Forecasted 12-month total return is in line with or modestly deviates from relevant benchmark
Sell:
Forecasted 12-month total return significantly less than that of relevant benchmark
11
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Editors
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