October 13, 2014 FX Weekly Update Contacts : Marc Maeder Utku Eroglu Oguz Sanli Tel : +41 (0)22 909 18 32 e-mail [email protected] Currency Pair EUR/USD USD/CHF EUR/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP USD/JPY EUR/JPY USD/TRY EUR/TRY USD/ZAR EUR/SEK EUR/NOK EUR/DKK GOLD SILVER Current Price 1.2673 0.9537 1.2086 1.6082 0.7880 107.47 136.20 2.2702 2.8776 11.0363 9.1140 8.2265 7.4437 1'227.65 17.41 Week Close 1.2628 0.9571 1.2087 1.6076 0.7854 107.66 135.96 2.2875 2.8887 11.1200 9.1332 8.2220 7.4436 1'223.16 17.39 % Change 0.36 -0.36 -0.01 0.04 0.34 -0.18 0.18 -0.76 -0.39 -0.76 -0.21 0.05 0.00 0.37 0.11 Month Close 1.2631 0.9551 1.2063 1.6213 0.7791 109.65 138.49 2.2782 2.8780 11.2853 9.1112 8.1162 7.4438 1'208.15 16.98 % Change 0.33 -0.15 0.19 -0.81 1.14 -2.03 -1.68 -0.35 -0.01 -2.26 0.03 1.34 0.00 1.59 2.52 Year Close 1.3743 0.8929 1.2274 1.6557 0.8302 105.31 144.73 2.1482 2.9529 10.4926 8.8482 8.3436 7.4600 1'201.64 19.47 % Change -8.44 6.38 -1.56 -2.95 -5.35 2.01 -6.26 5.37 -2.62 4.93 2.92 -1.42 -0.22 2.12 -11.81 200d Moving Avg 1.3512 0.9015 1.2174 1.6673 0.8105 103.20 139.39 2.1678 2.9291 10.7438 9.0464 8.2725 7.4584 1'285.98 19.82 100d Moving Avg 1.3286 0.9137 1.2132 1.6693 0.7958 103.91 137.96 2.1618 2.8710 10.7747 9.1662 8.2511 7.4531 1'275.14 19.50 Weekly Comment EURUSD Euro area finance ministers will today meet at 14:30. The main topic will be recommendations to member states on fiscal and economic policy. There will be particular attention on France which has already announced that it will not be able to meet the requirement of cutting the budget deficit to less than 3% of GDP. There will also be focus on the overall stance of fiscal policy in the euro area in light of recent weak data in the euro area and discussions at this weekend's IMF and World Bank meeting. In the coming week the most important data releases are euro area industrial production tomorrow and retail sales in the US on Wednesday. We still favor selling Euro on rallies up to 1.2780 (building short position) to test lower in the coming weeks 1.2500 level and lower USDTRY USDTRY traded in the 2.25-2.30 range on previous week after hitting 8 months high on payroll Friday. USD strengthening looks slowing pace after FED’s Fischer comments which might give Emerging Market currencies a breath but Turkey’s domestic and regional problems still putting pressure on Lira. More than 40 people were killed on the ISIS protests last week lead TRY underperformance against its peers; pushed TRYZAR from 4.95’s to August lows 4.86’s. On CBT side, CBT still keeping cash tight after holidays in Turkey, might prevent wild moves on USDTRY. Our view is still buy the dips on USDTRY. Support levels are 2.2680, 2.2640 and 2.2520 respectively, resistance levels lie on 2.2880, 2.2940 and 2.3070. Key Events Date Country 10/14/2014 10:30 10/14/2014 10:30 10/14/2014 11:00 10/14/2014 11:00 10/15/2014 08:00 10/15/2014 08:00 10/15/2014 10:30 10/15/2014 10:30 10/15/2014 14:30 10/15/2014 14:30 10/15/2014 20:00 10/15/2014 20:01 10/16/2014 11:00 10/16/2014 11:00 10/16/2014 14:30 10/16/2014 14:30 10/16/2014 15:15 10/16/2014 15:15 10/16/2014 16:00 10/16/2014 16:00 10/16/2014 22:00 10/17/2014 14:30 10/17/2014 14:30 10/17/2014 15:55 Event CPI MoM RPI MoM ZEW Survey Current Situation ZEW Survey Expectations CPI MoM CPI YoY Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Empire Manufacturing Retail Sales Advance MoM U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Current Account Balance CPI MoM CPI Core YoY Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Industrial Production MoM Capacity Utilization Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook NAHB Housing Market Index Total Net TIC Flows Housing Starts Consumer Price Index Univ. of Michigan Confidence Period Sep Sep Oct Oct Sep F Sep F Aug Aug Oct Sep Survey 0.20% 0.30% 15 0 0% 0.80% 0.70% 6.10% 20.9 -0.10% Prior 0.40% 0.40% 25.4 6.9 0% 0.80% 0.60% 6.20% 27.54 0.60% Aug Sep Sep F Oct.11 Oct.04 Sep Sep Oct Oct Aug Sep Sep Oct P -3.05B 0.40% 0.70% 290000 2380k 0.40% 79% 20 59 -2.63b 0.10% 0.70% 287000 2381k -0.10% 78.80% 22.5 59 57.7b -14.40% 125.7 84.6 5.10% 84.1 This document is for distribution to professional or institutional clients or counterparties only and is not intended for distribution to or use by, retail customers or any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where the distribution, publication, availability or use of such document would be contrary to law or regulation. 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