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Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute
Climate Transformations Research Cluster
Priorities
• Social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change
• Climate change adaptation and resilience
• Accelerating the transition to a just and resilient zero-carbon future
Convenors: John Wiseman, David Karoly, Richard Eckard
Climate Transformations: Partners
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Post Carbon Pathways
Melbourne Energy Institute
Australian-German College for Climate and Energy Transitions
Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab
CRC For Low Carbon Living: Visions and Pathways 2040
Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre
NHMRC Centre for Excellence in Healthy, Liveable and Equitable
Communities
• UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network
• Deep De-Carbonisation Project
• Al Gore Climate Reality Project
• Beyond Zero Emissions; Climarte; Transitions Film Festival; 350.org
Climate Transformations: Forthcoming events
June 3: Climate Research Connections
June 3: Making Your Money Fossil Free
June 5: Emotional Resilience in Warming World
June 25-27: Al Gore: Climate Reality Training Program
August 5: Roger Dargeville: Renewable Energy Innovation in Australia
August 31: Prof. Stephen Gardiner, Washington State University, Author of ‘ A
Perfect Climate Storm’
September 2: Peter Castelass, CEO, Carbon Market Institute
Researcher: John Wiseman
Project: Divest/Invest: Accelerating deep de-carbonisation through
disruptive innovation and investment switching
Rationale: Key obstacles to rapid transition to zero carbon economy:
Vested interests, Path dependencies; Finance and governance constraints
Aim: To strengthen understanding of key opportunities, challenges and
priorities for driving a rapid switch in investment from fossil fuels to zero
carbon economy technologies, industries and systems.
Methodology: Critical review and analysis, informed by interviews and
discussions with key informants and stakeholders of:
i) Fossil fuel divestment movements and strategies
ii) Disruptive innovation and game changing investment in deep decarbonisation technologies, industries and systems
Research priorities
• Working papers on Fossil Fuel Divestment Strategies and Disruptive
Innovation and Investment Strategies (July-August)
• Identification of research partners (July-August)
• Workshop on Asia Pacific de-carbonisation strategies (October)
• ARC Linkage (October) or Discovery (March) – and explore other
funding opportunities
Collaborative opportunities/interests
Researchers, policy makers and practitioners working on:
• Fossil fuel divestment strategies
• Disruptive innovation (eg. energy demand and supply; urban design,
buildings, transport, food, water, consumption)
• Investment switching enablers and drivers (eg. new business models,
financial institutions and products, policy and regulatory frameworks)
• Large scale social and technological transitions and transformations
Predicting Climate Change
Effects on abalone
Zoology
By Robert Day, Zoology Department,
• Abalone: a global industry – fishing and farming
• Can they adapt to warmer, more acid seawater?
• Global comparison of species in different waters
• What is the effect of future conditions?
METHODS, COLLABORATION
• Study congeners in Oz, NZ, France, S. Africa, ? Japan, US
– Each in different current conditions of Temp, pH.
• Standard 3 month expt: control, + temp, +CO2, both
• Investigate many aspects of behaviour, physiology:
– Aerobic scope, Escape behaviour
– Calcification, Immune function, Metabolomics (NMR)
– Gene expression, Proteomics
• Pilot completed
• Support from Farmers in each country
• But international funding scarce.
Lauren Rickards - MSSI
From Adaptation to Anthropocene
• General approach
– Human geography (critical, cultural), interdisciplinary
– Qualitative research, materialities
• Collaborators to date
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Wide range of disciplines and sectors
Agricultural and land management organisations (eg CMAs)
Government (consulting)
CSIRO (Transformational adaptation team, climate scientists)
Other uni’s: UNSW, CDU, Lancaster Uni, Oxford Uni, ASU
Lauren Rickards
MSSI
• Focal topics to date
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Cultural constructions/meanings of CC, drought, adaptation etc
Different groups beliefs and experiences re CC (eg farm families, leaders)
Role of different actors (gov, farmers, consultants, academics)
Role of different knowledges and tools (eg scenario planning)
• Emerging topics
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Crises/disasters including drought (a “non-disaster”)
Fire, smoke, ash, biochar (circulations, agency)
Future imaginaries
Geoengineering
Anthropocene
Where are the walls, and how big
are they?
X hectares of suitable wall
space
Mapped across the
Melbourne CBD
Do the walls have the characteristics
that plants need?
Mitigation
• How much less air-conditioning on
hot days?
Adaptation
• How much ambient cooling?
• How much reduction in peak stormwater
flows?
• How much potential to minimise heat
island effects?
Contact: [email protected]
Recent frost day trends in southern Australia
Andrea Dittus, David Karoly, Sophie Lewis and Lisa Alexander
Annual and monthly frost day trends (Tmin < 2°C)
Decreasing long-term trends, however…
May 1980-2011
In the last 32 years:
August 1980-2011
Recent frost day trends in southern Australia
Andrea Dittus, David Karoly, Sophie Lewis and Lisa Alexander
RESULTS
• The number of frost days has been
increasing in May and August/September
in south-east Australia
• Increases found in late winter/spring in
south-west Western Australia
OUTLOOK
• Spring frosts particularly relevant for
agriculture
• Further research to determine cause of
increases in south-west Western
Australia
• In south-eastern Australia, increases in
frost days are related to concurrent
drying trends
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
[email protected]
Courtesy of Robyn Pickering
Helen Camakaris
Writer and Visitor in Department of
Genetics
EVOLUTIONARY
BIOLOGY AND
PSYCHOLOGY
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND SUSTAINABILITY
POLITICS AND
ECONOMICS
Darwin’s Secret: Genetic Heritage, Future Demise
We fail to deal with climate change and sustainability because of evolved selfinterest, and instinctive behaviours reinforced by cultural norms.
Most of our evolution occurred in the distant past: our evolving brain built upon
the brains of our forebears, retaining social and instinctive behaviors like seeking
status, altruism restricted to our ‘tribe’, discounting the future and
underestimating risk.
Intelligence led to agriculture, towns, and then the Industrial Revolution,
capitalism and credit, the ultimate causes of rising CO2 emissions.
…………
‘The Poisoned Chalice: Genetic Heritage, Future Demise’ in Meanjin
‘Wanted: political leader with a vision for a sustainable future’ and
‘Don’t trust your Stone Age brain: it’s Unsustainable’ in The Conversation
Multi-scale analysis of the adaptive and mitigation
potential of mixed-farm systems
Using whole farm-system modelling to:
• Quantify adaptive benefits of soil carbon
• Investigate mitigation and adaptive consequences of a switch from
pasture to mixed pasture/cropping in south-western Victoria in future
climates
Using GIS and results of previous analyses to:
• Investigate the regional mitigation and adaptation consequences of a
widespread switch from pasture to mixed pasture/cropping
Possible Collaborations
• Incorporating a more sophisticated analysis of socio-economic aspects:
• Including human factors, such as skill set changes and management time
requirements, into analysis of adaptation consequences
• Incorporating stakeholder views into parameterization of the mixed farming
system
• Investigation of the mitigation and adaptive consequences of other land userelated mitigation or adaptation options
• Investigating the impacts of climate change on terrestrial systems, particularly
changes in land use patterns and the potential of these systems to serve as GHG
sinks or sources
Reconstructing the IPO/PDO:
Understanding Pacific decadal variability over
the last 1000 years
Ben Henley, Joelle Gergis, David Karoly
Aims and methods
Aims:
• To obtain a robust and skilful reconstruction of the IPO/PDO
• Improve our understanding of decadal variability, frequency of
phase change, teleconnection stationarity
• Improve our understanding of IPO-ENSO interactions
Methods:
• Iterative age modelling, incorporate age uncertainty
• Monte Carlo Principle Component Regression (PCR)
• Pacific-wide multi-archive multi-res palaeo network
Research priorities and collaborative
opportunities
• New index for the IPO (IPO Tripole Index)
• Influence of IPO-PDO on hydrological variability at various timescales:
impacts on water resources
• Understanding of (non) stationarity and frequency behaviour of IPO-PDO
• Past 1000-yr interactions between IPO and ENSO and ENSO-rainfall
teleconnections
• Assess IPO in GCMs, constrain models to improve decadal projections
• Investigate influence of IPO on precipitation/temperature modulation
Primary Industries Climate
Challenges Centre (PICCC)
• To build the capacity of agriculture to manage
risks and opportunities from climate change
– Developing collaborative partnerships in research
– Providing education on climate change and Ag
– Knowledge management
• Future opportunities
– To foster collaborative research between UOM &
DEPI plus other potential partners
– Increasing focus on sustainable intensification and
food security
Richard Eckard
• Livestock production efficiency and
environmental impact
– Energy efficiency- methane
– Nitrogen efficiency - nitrous oxide
– Whole Farm Systems Analysis
• Future priorities / Collaborative opportunities
– Methane and nitrous oxide
– International modelling inter-comparisons
– Global Research Alliance
Climate Research Connections
3 June 2014
Katja Dommenget (Lorbacher)
1/ key research aims and methods
capture multi‐model uncertainties for probabilistic climate projections
with MAGICC DONE: thermal expansion related sea level changes in
CMIP5
Relative Sea Level
changes in relative sea level integrates all volume changes of the world ocean
1/ steric
contribtution
2/ mass
changes in ocean’s volume:
contribution
net change NO net change
net change NO net change
in ocean’s volume
2/ future research priorities and collaborative opportunities
capture multi‐model uncertainties for probabilistic climate projections
with MAGICC TO DO: natural variability in CMIP5 like ENSO and AMO ??
Cost-benefit analysis of use of Recycled
Aggregate Concrete in structural concrete
Concrete recycling plant
Financial cost
assessment and
modelling of
manufacturing
of RAC and
application in a
structural
concrete
RAC – Recycled aggregate concrete
Ready mix concrete plant
Economic
Reinforced concrete building
Environmental
Technical
Costs and reliability
impacts due to technical
challenges of RAC
Environmental
cost/benefit due
to differences in
CO2 and
embodied
energy of RAC
Recycled Concrete Aggregate in Concrete
Structures
Recycling
Waste concrete
Production of Ready
Mix Concrete (RMC) at
RMC plant
Recycled concrete
aggregate (RCA)
Processing
operations for
RCA
Mechanical
processing
RMC plant
types
Front end
loader
Overhead bin
RAC replacing
NAC in the
building
Recycled aggregate
concrete (RAC)
Key
challenges in
RAC mix
design
Strength
variations
Blending
Workability
concerns
Supply chain
options for
manufacturing
and blending
Material form
Recycling plant
RCA blended
with NA
NA Quarry
RCA without
NA
Current climate projects
Coastal risk and planning laws
Port Campbell
Legal case study of Port Campbell
hotel redevelopment
Analysis of VCAT decisions and
Victorian state planning policy
Activist narrative
Supporting community climate
enterprises
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Waubra
Photo credit: Brad Jessup
Making connections and providing
legal advice to community energy
start-ups
Brad Jessup, Lecturer
Melbourne Law School
[email protected]
Future climate research
Legal ethnography of Waubra
wind farm
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Port Campbell
Viewing the Waubra experience
through the law – the approval
process, the conditions, the wind
farm guidelines
New community climate
governance
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Waubra
Photo credit: Brad Jessup
Building on the legal support work,
explore the role of community
governance in mitigation and the
role/limits of law
Brad Jessup, Lecturer
Melbourne Law School
[email protected]
In the United States, whether people perceive climate to be changing was predicted by their perception of
recent weather conditions. What they perceive the weather to have been, however, was not predicted by
what it actually was.
It was predicted instead by their cultural
worldviews;
egalitarian versus individualist.
Most Australians have egalitarian values.
In Kahan (2013). Making climate-science communication evidence-based—all the way down.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2216469
Citing: Akerlof et al. (2013) Do people “personally experience” global warming, and if so how, and does it matter?
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.006
and Goebbert et al. 2012: Weather, Climate, and Worldviews: The Sources and Consequences of Public Perceptions of Changes in Local Weather Patterns
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00044.1
Graph from ACTU (2011) Australian attitudes towards wealth inequality and the minimum wage
Most Australians, regardless
of politics, have egalitarian
values ->
ACTU (2011) Australian attitudes towards wealth inequality and the minimum wage
60%
Australians estimate their
own opinion to be the
most common among the
broader community ->
Average estimated percentage
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Not happening (n=397)
Don't know (n=329)
Natural (n=2023)
Human-induced (n=2470)
Respondents' own opinion type
'Not happening' estimate
'Don't know' estimate
'Natural' estimate
'Human-induced' estimate
Leviston et al. (2014) Fourth annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change. CSIRO.
Weather@home Australia-New Zealand
[Video here]
www.weatherathome.net/weatherathome/australia-new-zealand-heat-waves/
Climate engineering (or
geoengineering) governance
Key aims:
• Identify the local and global governance issues of climate engineering
• Design a framework for tackling these issues
Potential methods:
• MAGICC modelling - to inform the local governance decisions/debate
• Case studies of proposed technologies and existing governance measures
• Review of existing governance frameworks and their gaps
• Interviews (?) – to analyse actors/networks/interests/influences
• Discourse analysis from those actors/networks
ANITA TALBERG
Climate Research Connections: Brendan Gleeson
1. The Urban Condition, Routledge, 2014, book, articles
Key Arguments:
• Urbanisation key circuit and manifestation of growth
and overproduction (i.e. global warming)
• But urban growth not itself cause or cure
• Underlying political economy ‘hard wired for growth’
• The dangers of naturalism, especially physically
determinist accounts of social problems such as
climate change
• Massive resurgence of naturalism in popular
discussion (laws of the city etc.)
• Cities are where crisis will be met and addressed
The Political Ecology of City Networks
Addressing Climate Change: papers, ARC
• …our geopolitical future . . . will be determined in good part through 20 or
so strategic worldwide urban networks. Saskia Sassen
• …in the last decade practitioners and researchers have come to
recognise global cities as important actors in relation to climate change.
Ulrich Beck
• Power/responsibility is shifting from nation states to cities/urban leagues?
• Questions:
• 1. Naturalism: reification of ‘the urban’ as cause/solution
• 2. Exceptionalism/exclusion: elite urban networks, power blocs
(post-carbon urban enclaves, Hodson & Marvin 2010)
CENTRE FOR CULTURAL MATERIALS CONSERVATION
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR COLLECTIONS: NICOLE TSE
• Environmental mapping
& cultural materials
• Non invasive tools,
sensors and damage
functions
• Climate specific art
materials
• Pollution effects on oil
paint films
A: Reeve, B 2008, AICCM Newsletter, B: In-situ dynamic speckle analysis, C: mould effected material, D:
Silpakorn artists paints, Thailand
A: Ithipol Tangchalok 2004 Acrylic on Canvas, Collection of MRCad,
Silpakorn University, Thailand, B: Bruce Armstrong: So it’s come to
this, 1986, Red Gum, Collection of artist, on long term loan to Ian
Potter Museum of Art, University of Melbourne.
CLIMATE AND ACTIVITY
Investigations into a 53-year sub-alpine snow record
Ben Hague (School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Undergraduate)
and Blair Trewin (National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology)
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Data from BoM voluntary observers at
Bukalong, near Bombala, NSW, 800m
above sea level, 170km S of Canberra,
120km N of Orbost, VIC.
Recorded number of snow events per
month, and monthly snowfall totals, from
1949 to 2001.
In most months only 1 or 2 snow events
occurred, so adding monthly totals gives
an accurate yearly total.
Snowfall decreased overall especially since
1987.
Decreases in ‘Unseasonal months’ – April
to June and November to December
Slight increases in ‘Seasonal’ months – July
to October, largely due a large positive
outlier in July 1987, when 104cm of snow
fell, used a ranking system to overcome
magnitude of the outlier.
The number of snow events each year has
decreased.
Rank of Seasonal Snowfalls
Investigations into a 53-year sub-alpine snow record
Ben Hague (School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Undergraduate)
and Blair Trewin (National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology)
•
•
•
•
Compared the Bukalong record to the
alpine Spencers Creek data set from
Charlotte Pass, NSW.
Spencers Creek used snow depth
measured at approximately weekly
intervals.
Bukalong saw greater reductions in the
‘Unseasonal’ months (especially June).
Bukalong has less reductions during the
‘Seasonal’ months and overall, but had
greater variability.
Bureau of Meteorology 1987. Monthly Weather Review – New
South Wales – July 1987.
Davis, C.J. 2013. Towards the development of long-term winter
records for the Snowy Mountains. Aust. Met. Oceanogr. J., 63,
303-313.
Duus, A.L. 1992. Estimation and analysis of snow cover in the
Snowy Mountains between 1910 and 1991. Aust. Met. Mag.,
40, 195-204.
Hennessy, K., Whetton, P., Smith, I., Bathols, J., Hutchinson, M.
and Sharples, J. 2003. The impacts of climate change on snow
conditions in mainland Australia, CSIRO Atmospheric Research,
Melbourne. Available at http://www.cmar.csiro.au/eprint/open/hennessy_2003a.pdf.
Nicholls, N. 2005. Climate variability, climate change and the
Australian snow season. Aust. Met. Mag., 54, 177-185.
Trewin, B. 2013. Charts from the Past – 20 July 1987. Bull. Aust.
Met. Oceanogr. Soc., 26, 53.
Whetton, P.H., Haylock, M.R. and Galloway, R. 1996. Climate
change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps.
Climatic Change, 32, 447-479.
Climate Change Impacts on
Australian Pyrethrum Industry
Dilnee Suraweera1, Tim Groom2, Paul Taylor 1and Marc Nicolas1
1Department
of Agriculture and Food Systems, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, University of Melbourne
2Botanical Resources Australia (BRA) Pty Ltd.
Background & Objectives
• Pyrethrum Commercially grown for the extraction of pyrethrins
• Widely used as a natural insecticide
•
The variability in pyrethrins concentration due to season variation is a significant problem
for the pyrethrum industry in Australia.
• Investigate the environmental factors influencing flower development and pyrethrins
accumulation
⁻ short periods(12 days) of water deficit
⁻ short periods (12 hours for 3 days) of heat stress (35- 40 0C)
⁻ elevated atmospheric CO2 (700 ppm) and water deficit
Oil glands
Achene
Overall findings
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•
•
⁻
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⁻
⁻
⁻
⁻
Exposure to heat stress during post-anthesis period,
⁻
reduces flower dry weight
⁻
increases
rateperiods
of flower
Exposure
to short
ofdevelopment
water deficit during post-anthesis
⁻
shorter flowering period
period,
lower Pyrethrin
yield
⁻
reduces
flower dry
weight
Exposure
to elevated
atmospheric
CO2 throughout the
⁻
increases
rate of flower
development
flowering
period,
⁻
shorter
flowering period
increases
dry weight
⁻
lowerflower
Pyrethrin
yield
increases total number of flowers
increases rate of flower development
shorter flowering period
lower Pyrethrins yield per flower
increases Pyrethrins yield per plant by increasing the
number of flowers
Pro-poor policies for rural development:
An analysis of agriculture sector in Nepal
By: Sudarshan Neupane, Master of Development Studies
(Minor Thesis)
Supervisor: Prof. Anthony D’costa
Research aim: This research aims to look at how pro-poor
policies contribute to the rural development in developing
countries such as Nepal. This study specifically examines the
land reform policies adopted by the government and their
impact to the poorest households who live in rural
communities in impoverish conditions.
Hypothesis: Redistribution of land in favour of the landless
and marginal farming households is necessary for economic
security and livelihood opportunities.
Methodology:
 Analysis of the secondary data (from Govt. Ministry of Agriculture,
Central Bureau of Statistics)
 Research studies; progress reports; various published/unpublished
documents related to the topic
 Success and failure case studies of land reform initiatives in Taiwan,
South Korea, Zimbabwe and India
This study, commenced on March, is expected to be accomplished on
October, 2014.
Future research priorities and collaborations
Land reform, pro-poor approaches, sustainable development, agriculture
transformation
Contact: [email protected]
Chemistry Climate Model Initiative
Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative
Rainfall Extremes
Probability of Extreme Rainfall Events
Extreme Value Theory
Insurance, Councils and Government,
Mitigating Structures
Rainfall Extremes
Rainfall events are correlated with climate
processes
Predicting changes in frequency and intensity of
rainfall extremes under a changing climate.
Collaborations: Extreme Events, Rainfall Trends,
Maths and Stats
Kate Saunders – PhD Candidate
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
[email protected]
Research program – 14 projects
Policy, governance and implementation
Decisions under uncertainty
Urban resilience
Natural resource management
Priorities
Multidisciplinary
teams
Projects
effective
partnerships
with
government
Facilitating
institutional
learning
• Developed by
Government
• Researchers and
government teams
• Policy briefs
• Reports
Outputs • Presentations
Challenges
Presenting research outputs to meet policy needs and
time frames
Leadership, innovation culture and willingness to
experiment in government
Maintaining activity in a changing political environment
Integration and coordination between different levels
of government and with other research organisations
Maintaining funding!!
Crossing the Threshold: Adaptation Tipping
points for Australian Fruit Trees
?
??
[email protected]
Crossing the Threshold: Adaptation Tipping
points for Australian Fruit Trees
Current Priorities:
- Data collection
Future projects?
- Physiology = f(T)
- Impacts ‘in action’
- Spatial representation
- Adaptation via analogues
- Communication
Collaboration:
- Spatial projections at fine temporal scales
- Information packaging for NRM
Project partners:
- Vic. DEPI
- Qld. DAFF
- WA DAF
- UTAS
[email protected]
Research aims and methods
• Effect of climate change and variability on
tropical weather systems
– Tropical cyclones and climate
– Tropical rainfall variations
– Climate impact studies
• Methods
– Statistical analysis
– Numerical simulation: climate models, weather
prediction models, impact models
Future research priorities
• Ocean response to tropical weather systems
– Do tropical cyclones have a significant effect on
long-term ocean climate?
• Climate and tropical cyclones
– Can we develop more robust relationships
between climate and tropical cyclone formation
and intensity?
• Impacts of climate change on vulnerable
tropical locations
Climate extremes events and global agricultural
yields – a multi-model risk assessment
Key questions:
How are climate related extreme events linked to climate
change and which impacts do they have on global agricultural
yields?
How are climate related crop failure risks spatially distributed?
Is it possible to predict crop failures or crop failure risks at
different temporal and spatial scales?
Datasets:
Historical crop data (FAOSTAT)
Multimodel ensembles of climate and climate impact data
(ISI-MIP, AgMIP)
Elisabeth Vogel, PhD candidate
[email protected]
Climate extremes events and global agricultural
yields – a multi-model risk assessment
Future research directions and possible collaborations:
Global climate oscillation indices (e.g. ENSO)
and their relationship to climate variables and
agricultural yields
Forecasting of climate variables and crop
failures – global early warning system of crop
failures
International trade of food products – cascading
failures – networks of food transport and
inherent water/energy fluxes
Data visualisation, web applications, apps,
communication of research results
Elisabeth Vogel, PhD candidate
[email protected]
Urban Planning, Disasters, Climate Change
Alan March
Key Research Aims
• Better connections: urban planning and mitigation,
adaptation and response
• Recognition of the importance of technical, scientific and
governance/ policy aspects in finding solutions
• Finding good news to tell!
Current Research
• Bushfire risk settlement pattern indices
• Professional skills for Bushfire Risk
Reduction
• Theoretical links between DRR and Urban
Planning
• Design Principles for Risk Reduction
• Urban Planning as Governance to Reduce
Disaster Risks
Future priorities and opportunities
• Governance Systems as adaptive learning
• Managing transitions to a “Big Australia”
• Planning principles beyond single hazards
• Ongoing professional development supports
• Settlement design principles, existing and
future
Melbourne School of Land and Environment
Carbon neutral wool farming
Natalie Browne
A. Prof Richard Eckard
Research aims and methods
• Aim: calculate the carbon balance of Talaheni
Farm in Yass, NSW to determine if carbon neutral
• Originally had salinity and erosion problems
• Revegetation of over 200,000 native trees
Future Research Priorities
Mitigation options for livestock industries
• Biophyscial farm models
• Baseline farm system compared with mitigation option
• Reduce methane and nitrous oxide
Future research projects
• Driven by industry
priorities
• Funders: MLA, AWI, Dairy
Australia
Between top-down and bottom-up:
a new approach to stay below 2°C
- Translate each equity principle into a method to share the remaining carbon
budget
- Assign to each party their share based on their own equity principle and
assess the resulting global warming
A(2°C) + B(2°C) + C(2°C) = 3°C
- Deduce the climate target that this disagreeing world should aim at to limit
warming to 2°C
=> A(?) + B(?) + C(?) = 2°C
Yann Robiou du Pont, PhD candidate
[email protected]
Between top-down and bottom-up:
a new approach to stay below 2°C
Possible collaborations
Political science, development, geography, philosophy…
- Identifying and interpreting equity principles advocated by the major emitters
- Understand the perception of such results by the various countries
Yann Robiou du Pont, PhD candidate
[email protected]
Uncertainties in runoff modelling in southwest Western Australian
catchments
Pilar Barria, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne,
Kevin Walsh, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne,
Murray Peel, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne
Uncertainties in
runoff modelling
GCM
Downscaling
Hydrological
Modelling
Model structure
uncertainties
Research Questions
•How much is the runoff expected to change
in southwest Western Australian catchments
by 2080 under the A1B scenario?
•What are the uncertainties associated with
these predictions using 2500 member
ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM)
with perturbed physics parameter variations?
CMIP3/CMIP5
GCM
Uncertainties
Parametric
Uncertainties
Perturbed
Physics
Future Scenarios for Melbourne 2050:
Multi criteria sustainability assessment of impacts of urban growth and form on
urban energy and carbon footprints
Aim:
This research aims to develop an approach to urban sustainability assessment
considering a range of endogenous and exogenous factors (including urban policy and
actions by a range of key stakeholder groups), and the impacts of natural and/or manmade disasters and environmental change in the city (including climate), focusing in the
impacts of energy and carbon footprints in the adaptability of the city to respond to
these pressures. The PhD project is envisaged to eventually develop a proof-of-concept
of a model (or set of models) and workflows that integrate the results into an urban
growth scenario modelling for selected Melbourne areas and planning visions (eg. Plan
Melbourne 2050), providing information to support urban decision making.
Research questions:
1.
2.
3.
How urban growth and form impacts the capability of the city to
respond to adaptation in front of climate change?
How can a multicriteria assessment framework provide a better
analysis framework to support urban decision making?
Can the urban scenario modelling provide useful information for
adaptation strategies and urban development?
Objectives:
1. Development of evidence-based multicriteria sustainability assessment framework that aligns
with the UNEP Melbourne Principles for Sustainable Cities, builds on most recent international
efforts on urban sustainability assessment systems, and includes environmental quality,
economic quality and social or urban quality of life indicators .
2. Development of an urban systems scenario model (or set of models) that can be used to
evaluate impacts of different or alternative future urban scenarios based on multicriteria
assessment, focusing in energy and carbon footprints., offering information to support the
urban decision making process.
Methodology:
The project will test alternatives for urban growth using a multicriteria assessment framework
(nBL assessment framework CISRO) and urban modeling as a tool for representation and
evaluation of the impacts of different alternatives and visions on the development of the city of
Melbourne. (eg. Plan Melbourne 2050).
Expected Results:
The research intends to develop and test evidence-based multicriteria sustainability assessment
framework that support the practical application of the UNEP Melbourne Principles for
Sustainable Cities, including environmental, economic, social and physical indicators into the a
more comprehensive and holistic assessment of urban growth, in front of emerging climate
change challenges related with energy and carbon footprints, to support urban decision making
and adaptability of our cities.
Raul Marino - PhD Researcher - ABP Faculty and CSIRO – [email protected]
Sarah Hunter
Architecture, Building & Planning / Victorian Eco Innovation Lab
• PhD Student
– Looking at the role of aesthetics & emotion in sustainable design
– Specific focus on urban productive space / ‘urban agriculture’
– Interest in developing alternative design language which make
sustainability more desirable
“…the literature describes and analyses eco-technologies for constructing rain gardens or
green roofs or daylighting streams according to quantifiable ecological and hydrological
processes. Sustainability stands on three pillars, we are told: ecology, social equity, and
economy, and the ecological operates in relationship to social justice and and capitalist
profit, but not aesthetics.” (Meyer 2008)
“…in fact, sustainability is often considered antithetical to beauty” (Hosey 2012)
Sarah Hunter
Architecture, Building & Planning /
Victorian Eco Innovation Lab
• Future research interests
– Research interests in landscape based, human centred approaches
to mitigating climate change and its impacts
– Specific areas including design practices for bushfire, micoclimatic
change around housing etc
– Involvement in ‘evidence based’ cross disciplinary work which tests
assumptions about sustainable & unsustainable land design and
management practices and seeks alternative solutions for these.
Forest soil Methane exchange and Climate Change
How does soil methane (CH4) exchange react to climate
change?
• Seasonality in forest soil CH4 exchange
• Factors that are influencing soil CH4 exchange
(a)
-30
0.3
-40
-50
0.2
-60
15
10
5
-10
-2
-1
CH4 flux [g CH4 m h ]
3
o
0.4
-20
20
Soil temperature [ C]
0
-3
-10
Soil moisture [m m ]
-2
25
0.5
Wombat State Forest
-1
CH4 flux [g CH4 m h ]
0
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Wombat State Forest, adj. R2 = 0.924
Warra LTER, adj. R2 = 0.896
-70
0.1
1/1/10
1/5/10
1/9/10
1/1/11
1/5/11
Date
1/9/11
1/1/12
1/5/12
0
-70
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Air filled porosity [cm3 cm-3]
0.6
0.7
Forest soil Methane exchange and Climate Change
Predictions of how climate change will influence the capacity
of soils to take up CH4
?
Clearfell slash burn
0.2
Wildfire
0.1
-90
50
100
150
250 0
200
50
100
Autumn
Winter
Summer
Spring
*
-80
*
*
*
*
*
Control
Troughfall Reduction
(a)
-100
100
(b)
*
*
*
*
*
80
* *
*
*
60
40
20
0
/12
/04
01
/12
/03
01
/12
/02
01
/12
/01
01
/11
/12
01
/11
/11
01
/11
/10
01
/11
/09
01
/11
/08
01
/11
/07
01
/11
/06
01
/11
/05
01
/11
/04
01
/11
/03
01
/11
/02
01
/11
/01
01
/10
/12
01
/10
/11
01
/10
/10
01
/10
/09
01
Date
Water Filled Pore Space [%]
-1
-1
Methane flux [CH4-C sqm hr ]
-20
-40
150
Stand age (years)
0
-60
-3
0.3
Stand age (years)
*
0.5
0.4
-60
0
Summer
0.6
3
?
-30
-120
Spring
0.7
200
Air filled porosity [cm cm ]
adj. R2 = 0.949, p<0.001
(b)
0
-2
• Change to fire intervals
• Change in average rainfall
• Change in temperature
adj. R2 = 0.78, p<0.001
(a)
-1
CH4 flux [ug CH4-C m hr ]
30
0.0
250
Forest Ecosystems and Climate Change
How do forest ecosystems influence the climate system?
•
•
•
•
Carbon balance of forests systems
Sources and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG)
Processes that are influencing GHG balance
Predictions of how climate change will influence
the capacity of forests to take up carbon and
exchange GHG
2010
2011
RE
NEE
GPP
2012
Forest Ecosystems and Climate Change
•
•
•
•
Ecosystem composition in a future climate
Resilience and vulnerability of plant species
Mechanisms of stress tolerance and resistance
Identify physiological thresholds and tipping
points
Turgor Loss Point (MPa)
How are forest ecosystems impacted by a changing climate ?
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1960-2000
2080 low climate
change scenario
suitable
2080 high climate
change scenario
unsuitable
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
AND USE OF CLIMATE ANALOGUES TO
GUIDE ADAPTATION IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZAMBIA
Aims
• Gauge perception of the influence and
effect of climate change on productivity
and economic returns
• Identify climate analogues and
investigate the suitability for use in the
two study locations.
Catherine Sakala
Supervisor: Associate Prof
Richard Eckard
Methods
 FGD
 Met and MAL Data
Future research priorities and
collaborative opportunities
 Agriculture priority for Zambia
 Australian climate change impacts
similar to Southern Africa
 Scarcity of information
What happens to resilience in the process of
urban formalisation?
An urban design study on the effects of formalization of
informal settlements in Tehran, Iran
Solmaz Hosseinioon, Melbourne School of Design
• Key research aims and methods:
Key question: How does formalization process affect the resilience
capacities from urban design point of view?
The formal and informal aspects are always present in urban environments.
The question is to what level each carry adaptation and resilience attributes ?
This is study is about a formalised city which was an informal settlement before
and hence entails both extremes as well as areas which have both aspects.
The aim is to explore the relationships, the connections and interfaces
between formal/informal processes which represent themselves in urban form
and spatial layout. And see how urban planning and design regulations are
affecting resilience.
The main method is studying the characteristics of public realm of 3
neighbourhoods in different phases of formalization and see how their
resilience attributes(based on the literature review of socio-ecological
systems) change accordingly.
7
5
• Future research priorities and collaborative
opportunities
• Studying the relationship between urban design and climate change
resilience aspects in Melbourne as well as in the global urban
contexts
• Studying the affects of urban regulations and plans (in different
scales, from strategic to local)on adaptation attributes for climate
change
• Collaboration with ICLEI :local governments for sustainability for
preparing climate change resilience policies and plans in Oceania
• Collaboration with municipalities and councils to prepare resilience
guidelines in their relative scale (resilience attributes may change in
different scales, [Carpenter et al, 2001] )
7
6
Addressing the issues of CO2 emissions in Brunei
Darussalam with government initiatives
Md Khairul Hidayatullah Hj Basir
Master of Development Studies (MSoG)
AIM
• To propose measures to modify consumer
preferences to increase the use of public
transport as one of ways of reducing CO2
emission.
METHODOLOGY
• Comparative study by using Melbourne City as an example and compare several cities
with best practices.
Climate Research Connections 2014 - Khairul Basir
77
FUTURE RESEARCH PRIORITIES
• What is the sustainable level of CO2 emission
(measurable and achievable target) in Brunei given
the trade-of between degradation and economic
development?
COLLABORATIVE OPPORTUNITIES
• To answer the underlying question whether investing
in a new light railway network for Brunei is
worthwhile.
• How much can CO2 be reduced by changing
preferences to public transport?
Climate Research Connections 2014 - Khairul Basir
78
Urban greenery and policy:
mitigating the urban heat
island effect
in Australian cities
Judy Bush
PhD candidate
[email protected]
0477 879 738

5 PhDs as part of CRC for Low Carbon Living project:
Urban Micro Climates: Comparative study of major
contributors to the Urban Heat Island effect in three
Australian cities
(Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide)
Research questions:

How effective are policies at maximising urban greenery?

How can knowledge translation and communication
processes contribute to improved collaboration (and more
urban greenery!) for research, policy, implementation,
partnerships and green governance?
Aim
To explore the extent to which solar powered
households have reconfigured the political
economy of energy in Australia and Germany
Method
Comparative case study drawing on interviews
with households, industry and government and
analysis of transcripts, documents and policies
Priorities
Confirmation
Ethics Approval
Interviews
Collaborative Opportunities
Sociology
Political Science
Institutional Economics