Strategist Contact Information Global Research Russell Browne - [email protected] Trading Contacts Gold & Silver Marketwatch Reuters MMCN or (212) 225-6200 Stephen Abbriano - [email protected] Robert Lockwood - [email protected] Daily Update Monday, October 20, 2014 Market Commentary 1-Day Commodity Moves (%) Gold moved higher overnight to open the day at 1246.50/1247.50. It touched a high of 1248.50/1249.50 before pulling back to a low of 1243.00/1244.00 as global equities rose. Gold’s move higher was underpinned by physical buying on account of the Diwali festival in India this week. The metal was mostly range bound as it ended the day at 1244.00/1245.00. Silver advanced overnight, opening the session at 17.44/17.49. It climbed to a high of 17.50/17.55 and then retreated to a low of 17.32/17.37 before concluding the session at 17.34/17.39. Gold 0.6 Silver 0.8 Platinum 0.4 Palladium 1.0 Oil WTI fut 0.1 Copper fut -0.6 EUR 0.4 S&P 500 0.7 CRB -0.6 -1 0 1 2 5-Day Commodity Moves (%) Technical Commentary Silver rose modestly, closing at 17.37 – just shy of its 9 day and 21 day MA’s (both near 17.39) – a break and close above these short term MA’s would shift the focus to further upside. However, the technical picture for silver is uncertain, as we note that momentum indicators are conflicted and close to neutral. Recent consolidation has left silver within a range between 17.00 and 17.80. Silver -0.5 The gold-silver ratio has softened modestly from Friday’s fresh multi-year closing high, while forming a bullish hammer doji in Monday’s session. Momentum and trend indicators are broadly bullish. Palladium -2.9 Oil WTI fut -3.4 Copper fut -1.8 Gold 1246.50/1247.50 1248.50/1249.50 1243.00/1244.00 1244.00/1245.00 1,241.00 1,244.50 1,244.50 71.61 Gold OI 403,776 3 403,779 EUR 0.5 S&P 500 1.3 CRB -1.6 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 Month Commodity Moves (%) Gold 2.5 Silver -2.4 Platinum -5.2 Palladium Oil WTI fut -6.0 -10.4 Copper fut -3.3 -0.3 S&P 500 -5.5 CRB -15.0 -3.0 -10.0 -5.0 10/20/14 15:12 (last updated) Notable Ranges & Technical Levels Platinum 0.3 EUR Open High Low Close / Last Mid* London Pricing AM London Pricing PM Handy Harman (Base) Gold / Silver Ratio Open Interest COMEX CBOT Total Gold 0.8 Gold has closed higher at 1244.50, just shy of the key 38.2% Fibo retracement level (1245) of the recent decline. Momentum indicators are bullish and suggestive of acceleration, as we note the emergence of near term support around the 9 day MA (1233.48). A close above 1245 would increase the risk of near term upside, shifting the focus to 1264 the 50% Fibo retracement level of the recent decline. Intraday resistance has been observed at the 50 day MA (1249.50) and thus poses a near term challenge to further gains. 0.0 5.0 Source: Bloomberg Technical Levels etc. Technical Levels, Silver 17.44/17.49 17.50/17.55 17.32/17.37 17.34/17.39 17.38 NA 17.370 NA Platinum 1,261.00 1,275.15 1,256.75 1,266.80 1,268.00 1,268.00 1,268.00 NA Silver OI 170,248 7 170,255 Gold Palladium 754.60 764.50 753.45 761.85 754.00 756.00 756.00 NA Pivot Primary Support (Buy) Primary Resistance (Sell) HBOP LBOP Bollinger Band Upper Bollinger Band Mid Bollinger Band Lower Relative Strength 9 Day Relative Strength 14 Day 1,243.22 1,237.53 1,251.56 1,265.59 1,223.50 1,248.79 1,222.13 1,195.47 66 58 Silver 17.396 17.264 17.530 17.796 16.998 17.819 17.368 16.916 46 41 Platinum Palladium 1,263 1,251 1,279 1,307 1,223 1,330 1,277 1,224 44 38 756.55 748.60 770.20 791.80 727.00 820.04 781.15 742.25 41 40 Close/last mid refers to the spot closing floor price in gold and silver, and spot’s last mid price as provided by Bloomberg in platinum & palladium spot. All other data provided by Bloomberg. Actual market levels may differ. 1 Gold and Silver Market Watch Monday, October 20, 2014 Gold: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz) Gold: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz) 1775 1300 1675 1275 1575 1250 1475 1225 1375 1200 1275 1175 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Spot Nov-13 100-Day Mar-14 200-Day 1175 28-Aug Jul-14 7-Sep 17-Sep 27-Sep 7-Oct 17-Oct 27-Sep 7-Oct 17-Oct 400-Day Silver: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz) Silver: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz) 34.5 20.0 32.5 19.5 30.5 19.0 28.5 18.5 26.5 24.5 18.0 22.5 17.5 20.5 17.0 18.5 16.5 Nov-12 Mar-13 Spot Jul-13 Nov-13 100-Day Mar-14 200-Day 16.5 28-Aug Jul-14 7-Sep 17-Sep 400-Day Source: Bloomberg (may differ from market spot prices) Moving Averages 5 Day MA 10 Day MA 20 Day MA 30 Day MA 60 Day MA 100 Day MA 200 Day MA 400 Day MA Markets FX Majors Gold 1,239.58 1,231.13 1,222.13 1,225.57 1,257.71 1,274.46 1,286.05 1,306.64 Silver 17.383 17.372 17.368 17.759 18.724 19.423 19.752 20.660 Platinum 1,261 1,264 1,277 1,305 1,373 1,414 1,426 - Palladium 763.99 777.52 781.15 798.42 838.97 844.40 809.26 - CAD EUR GBP CHF AUD ZAR JPY as of: 1.1279 1.2816 1.6176 0.9416 0.8798 11.0159 106.8600 10/20/2014 15:12 CRB DJAIG Crude (fut) S&P 500 US 10 Yr US 30 Yr CDN 10 Yr as of: 271.13 116.61 82.82 1899.43 2.18 2.96 1.93 10/20/2014 15:12 This report has been prepared on behalf of Scotiabank and is not for the use of private individuals. 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