Regional Daily, 15 October 2014 5 Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories Trek 2000 (TREK SP) Technology BUY SGD0.41 TP: SGD0.61 Mkt Cap : USD96.0m Pg2 Initiate Trek with BUY and a SGD0.61 TP, based on a 16x FY15F P/E representing a 49% upside. With the Mattel deal, we expect orders to surge in FY15, which could lead to revenue and NPAT rising by 40% and 267% CAGRs from FY13 to FY16F. Analyst:Jarick Seet ([email protected]) OldTown (OTB MK) Consumer Cyclical - Retail BUY MYR1.71 TP: MYR2.15 Mkt Cap : USD234m Pg3 Although we expect growth to remain muted for the remaining three quarters after its weak 1QFY15 performance, we believe its growth momentum will gain pace thereafter.Maintain BUY with a revised TP of MYR2.15 (from MYR2.30), implying a 25.7% upside. Analyst: Fong Kah Yan ([email protected]) Trinity (891 HK) Consumer Cyclical - Retail SELL HKD2.01 TP: HKD1.61 Mkt Cap : USD451m Pg4 We spoke with Trinity mgmt and learned that SSSG for September relapsed into negative territory, after turning positive in Jul/Aug, while sales in Golden Week were poor. We cut FY14-16 EPS by 29-48%, TP to HKD1.61 (from HKD2.00), downgrade to SELL. Analyst: Robin Yuen, CFA ([email protected]) Pg5 Takeaways From Jakarta’s Vice Governor Meeting Other Key Stories Indonesia Indonesia Strategy Analyst: Agus Pramono, CFA ([email protected]) Malaysia Top Glove (TOPG MK) Consumer Non-cyclical - Rubber Products BUY MYR4.88 TP: MYR5.06 CARiNG Pharmacy (CARING MK) Healthcare BUY MYR1.63 TP: MYR1.70 Singapore Ezion Holdings (EZI SP) Oil & Gas Services BUY SGD1.61 TP: SGD2.45 Pg6 Analyst: Jerry Lee ([email protected]) Pg7 Taking a New Prescription Analyst: Alexander Chia ([email protected]) Pg8 Oil Prices Hold No Fear For Ezion Analyst: Lee Yue Jer ([email protected]) Lian Beng (LBG SP) Construction BUY SGD0.63 TP: SGD1.17 Pg9 Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) Oil & Gas Services BUY SGD3.66 TP: SGD4.50 Pg10 See important disclosures at the end of this report Nitrile Glove Production To Keep Increasing Kicking Off FY15 With On a Strong Note Analyst: Sarah Wong ([email protected]) Largest Contract YTD Worth USD696m Analyst: Lee Yue Jer ([email protected]) Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Initiating Coverage, 14 October 2014 Trek 2000 (TREK SP) Buy (Maintained) Technology Market Cap: USD96.0m Target Price: Price: SGD0.61 SGD0.41 Macro Risks Trek’s Toy Story Growth Value Trek 2000 International (TREK SP) Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 0.46 0.41 165 0.36 145 0.31 125 0.26 105 0.21 85 0.16 3 65 2 2 Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Oct-13 Vol m 1 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 0.18m/0.14m 48.8 48.8 0.19 - 0.41 55 298 Henn Tan Toshiba Finance Creative Technology 35.2 17.7 9.2 Share Performance (%) Educational toy, the key game changer. Trek 2000 International Ltd (Trek) secured an initial USD25m deal to provide wireless Flucard modules for Mattel’s (MAT US, NR) educational doll toy, which has been a big hit in China. Mattel plans to introduce the same toy into the US market by the end of 2014. We expect substantially more orders for Trek’s Flucard worth approximately USD50m in 2H14 and USD100m in FY15. We believe that more of Trek’s products like the Ai-Ball can be incorporated into the toy, allowing parents to monitor their babies wirelessly via smartphones. This may create another potentially significant revenue stream for Trek. Lastly, medical devices are another potential area for Trek to incorporate its wireless Flucard modules. Cloud Stringers – the “eBay” for journalists. We expect the ramping up of Cloud Stringers, a digital (cloud-based) marketplace that transmits and transacts online content globally, to commence by the end of the year. Furthermore, its partnership with Panasonic (6752 JP, NR) as well as multiple news agencies and freelance journalists could boost the content and number of users of this site. We are positive on this new platform which might be a potential revenue stream and an asset for Trek from 2015 onwards. Initiate coverage with BUY and a SGD0.61 TP. We see many positives in place for Trek on the back of the surge in Flucard orders from the Mattel deal. We initiate coverage with a BUY and a SGD0.61 TP, based on a 16x FY15F P/E. We use the expected earnings in 2015 in order to better capture the impact of the Mattel deal. Its regional-listed peers are trading at an average of 20x FY14F P/E; we ascribe a 20% discount to its peer average, taking into consideration the liquidity of the stock and the relatively smaller scale of the company compared with peers. With a library of 600 patents and a strong and successful research and development (R&D) team, Trek could also be considered a potentially favourable acquisition target by its larger peers. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 105.0 20.6 86.4 105.0 70.8 Forecasts and Valuations Relative 103.2 24.2 88.5 104.2 69.4 Total turnover (USDm) Shariah compliant Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 74 100 151 203 233 Reported net profit (USDm) 0.3 2.1 9.2 14.1 17.3 Recurring net profit (USDm) 0.3 2.1 9.2 14.1 17.3 Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 632.7 339.1 54.0 22.4 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.002 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 Jarick Seet +65 6232 3891 Recurring EPS (USD) [email protected] DPS (USD) Recurring P/E (x) Terence Wong CFA +65 6232 3896 [email protected] Dec-17F 336 46 10 7 6 P/B (x) 2.42 2.43 2.07 1.65 1.31 P/CF (x) 45.8 23.3 8.7 5.8 4.8 0.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 26.7 18.8 7.8 5.2 3.8 0.0 5.3 21.4 27.0 26.3 net cash 2.1 4.4 0.0 0.0 Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 0 0 We initiate coverage on Trek with BUY and a SGD0.61 TP, based on a . 0 16x FY15F P/E which results in a 49% upside. Trek has managed to 0 boost its wireless Flucard sales on a big scale given its partnership 0 with Mattel China. We expect orders to surge in FY15, which could lead to revenue and NPAT rising by 40% and 267% CAGRs from FY13 to FY16F. We believe this has been a long time coming for Trek, on top of positive drivers like consumer SSDs and its e-platform Cloud Stringers. 3 1 Source: Company data, RHB net cash net cash 0.0 Powered by EFATM Platform 0.0 2 Company Update, 14 October 2014 OldTown (OTB MK) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Retail Market Cap: USD234m Target Price: Price: MYR2.15 MYR1.71 Macro Risks Sowing The Seeds Of Long-Term Growth Growth Value OldTown (OTB MK) Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 2.30 108 2.20 104 2.10 99 2.00 95 1.90 91 1.80 87 1.70 82 1.60 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 78 0 0 . 2 0 0 OldTown’s share price has corrected >20% from its high of MYR2.22 in . 0 the past three months. Although we expect growth to remain muted for 0 the remaining three quarters after its weak 1QFY15 performance, we 0 believe its growth momentum will gain pace thereafter. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of MYR2.15 (from MYR2.30), implying a 25.7% upside. The stock is currently trading at an undemanding FY16 P/E of 12.8x. Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Oct-13 Vol m Price Close Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Oldtown International Franklin Resources Mawer Investment Management 1.28m/0.40m 29.2 25.7 1.71 - 2.26 49 447 42.8 6.4 6.7 Recent share price retracement. OldTown’s share price has corrected by >20% from its high of MYR2.22 in the past three months. We believe the retracement was due to a combination of: i) weak 1QFY15 (Mar) results, ii) the weak performance of its food and beverage (F&B) arm, which reflects the current challenging operating environment, and ii) slower-than-expected growth in its key earnings catalyst, ie its fastmoving consumer goods (FMCG) arm. Counting on its FMCG arm. Moving forward, we expect growth from its F&B arm to remain soft amid stiff competition and consumers’ cautious discretionary spending. Its FMCG arm, on the other hand, should recover and underpin growth ahead. The weak performance of its FMCG arm in 1QFY15 was due to seasonal factors as well as higher-thanexpected selling and distribution spending. We note that sales have picked up in the subsequent quarters after the delay in promotions of its FMCG products in China in 1QFY15. Hence, we expect earnings from its FMCG arm to normalise in the second half. In the medium to long term, we expect earnings for its FMCG arm to grow by double digits, driven by: i) growth in local sales from improving consumer sentiment, and ii) growth in its export markets, particularly in Asean. Risks. Key risks include: i) weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment, ii) a change in consumer preference, and iii) rising raw material prices. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of MYR2.15. We trim our TP to MYR2.15 (from MYR2.30), based on a revised FY16 P/E of 16x (from 18x) to reflect the challenging operating environment for its F&B division. However, we remain optimistic that its FMCG arm should start to reap the fruits from an expanding regional distribution network next year. The stock is currently trading at an undemanding FY16 P/E of 12.8x relative to its peer target valuations of 19-22x. Forecasts and Valuations Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (17.8) (11.4) (21.2) (14.1) (16.8) Relative (14.7) (8.9) (17.2) (11.7) (18.1) Shariah compliant Fong Kah Yan +603 9207 7668 [email protected] 2 . 2 0 . 2 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15F 299 337 382 417 484 Reported net profit (MYRm) 41.4 44.4 49.0 49.2 59.9 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 34.5 44.4 49.0 49.2 59.9 Recurring net profit growth (%) 23.2 28.8 10.2 0.5 21.7 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.13 DPS (MYR) 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.07 Recurring P/E (x) 16.9 14.0 15.8 15.5 12.8 P/B (x) 2.46 2.04 2.36 2.24 2.06 P/CF (x) 12.7 11.0 11.6 9.6 8.7 3.7 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.9 7.72 5.86 8.27 7.19 5.57 24.8 17.0 15.4 14.7 16.8 Total turnover (MYRm) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Mar-16F net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (7.5) 1.5 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 3 Company Update, 14 October 2014 Trinity (891 HK) Sell (from Neutral) Consumer Cyclical - Retail Market Cap: USD451m Target Price: Price: HKD1.61 HKD2.01 Macro Risks Pinning Hopes On New CEO Growth Value Trinity Ltd (891 HK) Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) 3.30 113 3.10 106 2.90 100 2.70 93 2.50 86 2.30 80 2.10 73 1.90 66 1.70 60 1.50 35 53 25 20 10 Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Oct-13 Vol m 15 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 9.52m/1.24m 5.0 -19.7 1.65 - 3.03 55 1,742 Li & Fung JP Morgan Chase & Co. T. Rowe Price Associates 38.5 7.0 5.2 Disappointing Sep-Oct sales. We recently spoke with Trinity’s management on 10 Oct for an update. The group’s sales in September declined y-o-y, and Golden Week “no longer helps” numbers as before. This suggests that its same-store sales growth (SSSG) is flat or even negative for both China and Hong Kong (which contribute c.80% of sales). Its sales teams have observed that wealthy tourists from Mainland China have stopped coming to Hong Kong in response to Occupy Central. Still, casual shoppers are still visiting Hong Kong – which may explain why mass-market brands have outperformed during the period of protest. High expectations still priced in. Trinity shares have risen 5% since it held an analyst meeting to discuss its results, when new CEO Mr Richard Cohen shared his turnaround plan and disclosed that SSSG for its Hong Kong and China operations rebounded into positive territory in July and August. However, the bounce was likely a result of the company giving retail discounts to reduce inventory levels and bringing forward sales of new season products into stores – which could have led to the reversal of its SSSG to negative in September. Downgrade to SELL with a lower TP of HKD1.61. This report marks the transfer of coverage to Robin Yuen. We cut recurring EPS by 48%/36%/29% for FY14F-16F which is 30%/19%/13% below consensus. The market may be too optimistic on Trinity’s rebound as the macroenvironment has further deteriorated in HK and China, in our view. We expect its 2H14 results to disappoint the market. Our target P/E is set at 13x FY15F, about 2.5SD below its historical 3-year forward P/E mean, to reflect slower recovery prospects. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (22.7) (17.3) (1.5) (7.4) (27.7) Relative (23.7) (13.0) (2.8) (9.7) (29.1) Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 2,801 2,696 2,644 2,805 3,038 Reported net profit (HKDm) 540 308 169 215 279 Recurring net profit (HKDm) 490 286 151 215 279 Recurring net profit growth (%) (1.4) (41.6) (47.2) 42.4 29.7 Recurring EPS (HKD) 0.29 0.17 0.09 0.12 0.16 DPS (HKD) 0.24 0.13 0.07 0.09 0.12 7.0 12.2 23.1 16.2 12.5 Total turnover (HKDm) Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Robin Yuen, CFA +852 2103 9202 Recurring P/E (x) [email protected] P/B (x) 0.80 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 P/CF (x) 10.5 12.6 12.6 8.1 7.5 Dividend Yield (%) 11.9 6.5 3.6 4.6 6.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.35 6.62 9.68 8.00 6.63 13.4 7.4 4.2 5.2 2.2 3.1 1.1 net cash (30.3) (18.9) (12.5) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash 6.7 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 . 3 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 0 We recently spoke with Trinity’s management for an update. Sales . 0 during the Golden Week were poor while its SSSG fell again in 0 September after turning positive in Jul/Aug. We believe a recovery is 0 elusive in the short term, given the various headwinds. We cut our FY14-16 EPS forecasts by 29-48%. We also pare our TP to HKD1.61 (from HKD2.00), set at a new 13x FY15F P/E and implying a 20% downside. Downgrade to SELL. 30 5 Powered by EFATM Platform 4 Strategy, 14 October 2014 Indonesia Strategy Underweight Macro Takeaways From Jakarta’s Vice Governor Meeting Risks Growth Value 1 1 1 We met informally with Jakarta’s Vice Governor Basuki Tjahaya Purnama (Ahok) recently where he spoke of the administration’s readiness to fight corruption, increase transparency and improve infrastructure for a better capital city. Ahok is widely anticipated to become the city’s Governor soon. We hope he and President-Elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will be role models for future Indonesian leaders. Protecting Jakarta’s interests. The first discussion during the meeting revealed that Indonesia’s problems, while simple, were complicated by multiple parties’ vested interests. For example, the Islam Defenders Front’s (FPI) resorting to violence to protest his pending appointment as Jakarta’s Governor. Local media have reported that the alleged motor of the demonstration was not the FPI (and that it is supported and funded by other parties), but Ahok has become the first government official to request that the police ban the group for its violent acts. He is also tasked with protecting the city’s interests. Examples of these include the stopping of a garbage collection outsourcer, given instances of not delivering the waste to the right location and other issues, as well as the tussle with a business that is trying to occupy 2ha of land in Ancol despite the contract having ended. Budget absorption could improve. Ahok said that the city’s low budget absorption was a consequence of it implementing a new e-catalogue platform that could deter public officials from having a hand in profiting from governmental projects. The bureaucratic reform that he has implemented has resulted in some officers slowing down the execution of public projects. Thus far, Ahok finds the situation still controllable as he can ask Jakarta Province-owned companies to handle some of the jobs. We came off impressed by his clear-cut strategy to clean up the bureaucratic issues and restructure the city’s administration. We believe that the usage of the city budget will likely improve going forward as new administrative officers take over. Mixed feelings about Jakarta’s sea wall. We asked about the current status of the construction of the giant sea wall. Ahok expressed scepticism as to Stage B of the project, which includes a giant sea wall in the shape of a mythical garuda bird. His concerns also involved the feasibility of this plan, which includes the construction of 17 artificial islands and required the availability of electricity from the state-owned power plant company. It also involves getting agreements from 9,000 resident fishermen to be relocated to one of the islands. Ahok believes this will be a long-term project, with completion expected in 20-30 years. Agus Pramono, CFA +6221 2598 6765 [email protected] Yualdo T. Yudoprawiro +6221 2598 6888 [email protected] Luthfi Ridho +6221 2598 6888 [email protected] See important disclosures at the end of this report Jakarta light rail transit (LRT) project may be delayed. We also discussed the status of Jakarta’s LRT project – Ahok doubted it could be finished within its stipulated deadline. He expressed his doubts as to whether concession owner PT Jakarta Monorail has the ability and will to finish the project. Instead, Ahok believes the company is trying to build elevated LRT stations that will also house several retail stores within them. His concerns are that, if the stations are huge, they will impact the layout of the foundation construction. This can change or even obstruct city planning. To clarify, this is not the same project that will be handled by Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,745). Powered by EFATM Platform 5 1 Results Review, 15 October 2014 Top Glove (TOPG MK) Neutral (Maintained) Consumer Non-cyclical - Rubber Products Market Cap: USD929m Target Price: Price: MYR5.06 MYR4.88 Macro Risks Nitrile Glove Production To Keep Increasing Growth Value Top Glove (TOPG MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 6.30 106 6.10 102 5.90 98 5.70 94 5.50 90 5.30 86 5.10 82 4.90 78 4.70 74 4.50 70 4.30 25 66 0 0 . 2 0 0 We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on and MYR5.06 FV (17x FY15F P/E, . 0 3.7% upside) for Top Glove. Its FY14 earnings were within expectations, 0 but revenue and earnings declined from lower ASPs, intensified 0 competition and higher operating costs. It will continue to ramp up its nitrile glove production capacity as demand remains strong. The company declared a 16 sen/share dividend (55% payout ratio) for FY14. 20 15 Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 5 Oct-13 Vol m 10 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Tan Sri Dato Sri Lim Wee Chai KWAP EPF 2.61m/0.81m 5.5 3.7 4.50 - 6.03 47 621 28.9 9.0 6.4 2 . 2 0 . 2 Results in line. Top Glove’s FY14 (Aug) net profit of MYR180.1m (8.3% YoY) met 98% and 97% of our and street estimates respectively, while revenue and pre-tax profit eased 1.6% YoY and 11.3% YoY respectively. Its total sales volume for nitrile and latex gloves (excluding vinyl gloves) increased by 4.2% YoY in FY14, but revenue declined on lower average selling prices (ASPs). Note that the latter was due to the lower raw material prices (natural latex: -7.3% YoY, nitrile latex: -83% YoY) as well as intense competition, which compelled any cost savings gained to be passed on to customers. Higher electricity costs and a hike in the price of natural gas, which came into effect this year, also exerted more downward pressure on its profit margin. Healthy cash flow to support dividend policy. Top Glove maintained its dividend payout policy of 16 sen (55% of FY14 net profit), which translates to a dividend yield of 3.3%. The group was able to maintain the same dividend payout ratio as the preceding year, as its cash flow is healthy and balance sheet remains robust. Ramp-up for nitrile gloves. Top Glove is ramping up its nitrile glove production and sales. Nitrile glove sales contributed 24% of its FY14 total sales (vs 20% in FY13), following the increase in capacity from its new factory. Going forward, Top Glove aims to increase its production to 44.6bn pieces per annum by Jan 2015 (from 42bn), in which all the new lines will be to produce nitrile gloves. Maintain NEUTRAL. We keep our NEUTRAL stance on Top Glove and Our unchanged FV of MYR5.06 is pegged to a 17x FY15F P/E, which is the historical average P/E of the stock’s trading band. Share Performance (%) Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15F Aug-16F 2,314 2,313 2,276 2,549 2,715 Reported net profit (MYRm) 203 197 180 193 188 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 202 186 180 193 188 Recurring net profit growth (%) 78.5 (8.0) (3.0) 7.3 (2.6) Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.33 0.30 0.29 0.31 0.30 DPS (MYR) 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 Jerry Lee 603 9207 7622 Recurring P/E (x) 15.0 16.3 16.8 15.7 16.1 [email protected] P/B (x) 2.41 2.27 2.17 1.99 1.88 P/CF (x) 11.4 12.4 10.0 10.5 10.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 9.80 9.93 9.62 8.25 8.01 17.1 15.2 13.2 YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (13.3) (2.4) 3.8 0.0 (20.7) Relative (10.2) 0.1 7.8 2.4 (22.0) Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (MYRm) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash net cash 13.3 12.0 net cash net cash (3.8) (15.7) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 6 Company Update, 15 October 2014 CARiNG Pharmacy (CARING MK) Neutral (Maintained) Consumer Non-cyclical - Healthcare Market Cap: USD109m Target Price: Price: MYR1.70 MYR1.63 Macro Risks Taking a New Prescription Growth Value Caring Pharmacy (CARING MK) Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 2.30 182 2.10 167 1.90 152 1.70 137 1.50 122 1.30 107 1.10 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 92 0 0 . 2 0 0 Our recent meeting with management shed some light on Caring’s . 0 outlook. Maintain NEUTRAL with a lower MYR1.70 TP (from MYR1.95), a 0 4.3% upside. After the disappointing FY14 (May) performance, 0 management is taking a step back and re-strategising expansion plans. We expect 1HFY15 performance to be rather muted, in view of growing competition and low contribution from new outlets. Aug-14 Jun-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Motivasi Optima SB Jitumaju SB 0.24m/0.08m 47.2 4.1 1.25 - 2.23 31 218 50.4 17.1 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m Absolute (17.3) (6.3) (25.9) (16.4) Relative (14.2) (3.8) (21.9) (14.0) 12m 2 . 1 0 . 3 Making the necessary changes. Management said it was reviewing its expansion strategy in light of the recent FY14 earnings disappointment. Caring admitted to being too aggressive with its expansion plan post IPO and, therefore, expected to be more selective in opening its future new outlets, taking into account important criteria like: i) good customer flow, ii) affluent and educated population catchment, and iii) matured townships with a considerable aged community. Caring’s disappointing FY14 earnings were mainly attributed to underperforming new outlets, which led to an increase in operating costs on a rise in marketing and promotional activities undertaken to boost customer flow. FY15 expectations. While we expect FY15 revenue to continue growing by 12.7% on increasing contributions from existing and stable new outlets, we expect 1HFY15 to be a rather muted period for Caring as it gradually tries to get back on track and take control of its spiralling operating costs. We believe full-year margins will be squeezed on the back of intensifying competition from independent retail pharmacies and its continuing expansion plans. However, we expect conditions to improve in 2HFY15 onwards on the aforementioned positives. Risks. These include: i) scarcity of good locations, ii) lagging business processes, iii) increasing number of independent retail pharmacies, and iv) longer-than-expected gestation period for new outlets. Forecasts. We slash our FY15/FY16 earnings forecasts by 11% and 15% in view of Caring’s increasingly challenging operating environment. Stay NEUTRAL. After revising our earnings forecasts, our new MYR1.70 TP (vs MYR1.95) is pegged to 18x CY15F P/E. Our target P/E is a discount to bigger healthcare stocks like KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR3.67) at 26x FY15F P/E. As we expect Caring’s earnings growth to be capped by its expansion plans and operating cost pressures, we maintain our NEUTRAL call. Forecasts and Valuations May-13 May-14 321 338 381 415 428 Reported net profit (MYRm) 20.6 16.1 19.2 21.9 24.2 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 20.6 16.1 19.2 21.9 24.2 Recurring net profit growth (%) 12.5 (21.8) 19.3 14.1 10.4 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.11 Recurring P/E (x) 17.3 22.1 18.5 16.2 14.7 The Research Team +603 9207 7663 P/B (x) 3.56 3.15 2.75 2.41 2.10 [email protected] P/CF (x) 34.5 12.3 13.6 11.9 Shariah compliant Alexander Chia +603 9207 7621 [email protected] Total turnover (MYRm) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB May-15F May-16F May-17F na 10 105 11 9 8 41.2 15.1 15.9 15.9 15.3 net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (19.9) (16.3) (14.6) Powered by EFATM Platform 7 Company Update, 14 October 2014 Ezion Holdings (EZI SP) Buy (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services Market Cap: USD2,000m Target Price: Price: SGD2.45 SGD1.61 Macro Risks Oil Prices Hold No Fear For Ezion Growth Value Ezion Holdings (EZI SP) Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 134 1.90 127 1.80 121 1.70 114 1.60 108 1.50 101 1.40 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 95 Jun-14 Feb-14 Aug-14 2.00 Apr-14 140 Dec-13 2.10 Oct-13 Vol m Price Close 13.4m/10.7m 80.7 52.2 1.52 - 2.03 70 1,578 14.2 7.6 7.0 Share Performance (%) Sold off on oil price jitters. Ezion’s share price has underperformed the market by 15% YTD (12% last month), with one of its biggest 1-day falls last Friday when Brent fell below USD90/barrel (bbl). We note a significant sell-off in oil and gas-related names in the last month, generally in the 15-25% range for shallow-water players and ~30-45% for deepwater plays. Better execution on rig deliveries would ease investor concerns. Ezion’s shares have been flat for most of the year, even though it has delivered on earnings growth and new charter contracts. We believe a key investor concern is the recurrence of rig delivery delays, which has overshadowed the growth angle. Thus, we trim FY14/FY15 earnings estimates by 7%/5% respectively to remain conservative. Moving into time charters with 42% ROE. Ezion’s latest service rig contract (Unit #38) was fixed at c.USD25.3m/year at a capital cost of USD90m. We calculate the ROE on this unit at 41.6%, far superior to the typical bareboat charter ROE of c.30%. We expect Ezion’s move into time charters to create more shareholder value. It also presents future valuation upside, should future contract renewals on existing assets include a switch from the current bareboat to time charters. Delays have limited impact on growth. As highlighted in our Shallow Water Is The New Onshore sector note, we think investors should own high-growth, low-P/E shallow-water plays like Nam Cheong (NCL SP, BUY, TP: SGD0.58) and Ezion while eschewing deepwater ones like Vard (VARD SP, NEUTRAL, TP: SGD0.80). This theme remains valid today, with lower oil prices putting deepwater activity at risk. We believe Ezion’s rig delay issues should not prevent it from delivering c.41%/58% earnings growth in FY14F/FY15F, which are best-in-class growth rates for this sector. Maintain BUY with slightly lower SGD2.45 TP (from SGD2.50), which is based on 12x blended FY14/15F P/E. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (13.0) (12.3) (3.9) (7.6) 3.0 Forecasts and Valuations Relative (14.8) (8.7) (1.8) (8.4) 1.6 Total turnover (USDm) Shariah compliant Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 159 282 465 688 759 Reported net profit (USDm) 79 160 253 308 348 Recurring net profit (USDm) 65 141 198 308 348 38.4 115.0 40.8 55.5 13.0 Recurring net profit growth (%) Lee Yue Jer, CFA +65 6232 3898 [email protected] Recurring EPS (USD) 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.22 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Recurring P/E (x) 16.7 11.2 9.7 6.5 5.7 P/B (x) 3.65 2.14 1.68 1.33 1.08 P/CF (x) 12.6 11.0 5.7 4.8 4.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.4 14.0 9.6 6.3 4.7 Return on average equity (%) 21.8 27.7 26.8 22.9 20.7 Net debt to equity (%) 75.5 115.0 90.5 68.6 31.7 (4.3) 7.1 2.0 DPS (USD) Dividend Yield (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 While Ezion’s share price retreated 12% last month on oil price-related . 0 jitters, we maintain BUY with a SGD2.45 TP (from SGD2.50), still a 52.2% 0 upside. We reiterate that operations, backed by long-term contracts and 0 oil majors’ opex, are well-insulated from oil price fluctuations. With a larger operational fleet today, rig delays have had a smaller impact too. We think the market is not pricing in its 41-58% growth over FY14F-15F. Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Chew Thiam Keng GuoLine Capital Franklin Resources Source: Company data, RHB Powered by EFATM Platform 8 Results Review, 15 October 2014 Lian Beng (LBG SP) Buy (Maintained) Construction & Engineering - Construction Market Cap: USD263m Target Price: Price: SGD1.17 SGD0.63 Macro Risks Kicking Off FY15 With On a Strong Note Growth Value Lian Beng (LBG SP) Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 0.80 142 0.75 136 0.70 130 0.65 123 0.60 117 0.55 111 0.50 105 0.45 98 0.40 25 92 15 Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 5 Oct-13 Vol m 10 Source: Bloomberg 0.97m/0.77m 7.9 85.5 0.52 - 0.75 64 530 Ong family 34.6 A strong start to FY15. Lian Beng’s revenue grew 10.8% y-o-y to SGD167.6m for the quarter, while PATMI surged 58.5% y-o-y to SGD12.0m. Its construction segment and workers' dormitory business continued to book a robust performance, leading the growth in revenues and offsetting the revenue dip from the ready-mixed concrete segment. The surge in PATMI is largely attributable to the recognition of profits from property development projects such as NEWest, KAP and The Midtown – which amount to SGD5.1m under its share of results from associates and JVs. Going forward, we expect the continued recognition of profits from these property development projects to drive earnings for the group. A steady orderbook of c.SGD1.0bn would also provide earnings visibility for the company until FY17F. Fresh starts and sweeteners in the form of near-term earnings catalysts: i) Lian Beng's 32% stake in the 92.8% aggregate strata area of Prudential Tower, acquired from a REIT. We expect Lian Beng's stake to yield SGD23.3m in earnings from the sale of all strata-titled units in Prudential Tower, assuming full sales at an average selling price of SGD2,600 psf. We have yet to factor this into our earnings estimates – until the company receives approval for the conversion of the property into strata-titled units, ii) its upcoming granite supply business in Ipoh, Malaysia, which we expect to potentially start contributing to group numbers in early 2015. Maintain BUY, with a SOP-derived TP of SGD1.17. Lian Beng currently has a strong cash position of SGD150.9m. We do expect nearterm earnings catalysts to unlock value for the group. Maintain BUY, with our SOP-based TP still at SGD1.17. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 16.7 (11.3) (10.6) (3.1) 20.0 Relative 14.9 (7.7) (8.5) (3.9) 18.6 Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (SGDm) Reported net profit (SGDm) Recurring net profit (SGDm) May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 507 445 506 754 May-15F 653 48.2 52.1 39.4 87.1 60.5 48.2 52.1 39.4 53.7 60.5 100.5 8.1 (24.3) 36.2 12.7 Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.11 DPS (SGD) 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 Sarah Wong +65 6232 3883 Recurring P/E (x) 6.93 6.41 8.46 6.21 5.52 [email protected] P/B (x) 1.78 1.44 1.28 0.85 0.74 P/CF (x) 4.1 4.9 3.5 10.9 Terence Wong CFA +65 6232 3896 Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 3.2 2.0 3.6 3.2 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 3.52 2.16 4.55 2.16 2.56 24.8 16.0 26.6 14.3 38.0 39.4 Recurring net profit growth (%) Shariah compliant Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) 29.1 net cash net cash na Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 27.5 (4.8) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 Lian Beng reported a strong set of 1QFY15 (May) results, with revenue . 0 growing 10.8% y-o-y to SGD167.6m and PATMI surging 58.5% y-o-y to 0 SGD12.0m. The surge in profits is largely attributable to the recognition 0 of profits from property development projects amounting to SGD5.1m. Its construction orderbook remains strong at c.SGD1.0bn, providing visibility. We expect near-term catalysts to aid in unlocking its value. Maintain BUY, with a SOP-based TP of SGD1.17 (85.5% upside). 20 Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Powered by EFATM Platform 9 Company Update, 14 October 2014 Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) Buy (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services Market Cap: USD6,000m Target Price: Price: SGD4.50 SGD3.66 Macro Risks Largest Contract YTD Worth USD696m Growth Value Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 4.80 103 4.60 99 4.40 94 4.20 90 4.00 86 3.80 82 3.60 77 3.40 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 73 0 0 . 2 0 0 SembMarine has secured a USD696m contract to convert a shuttle . 0 tanker into an FPSO for OOGTK Libra GmbH & Co KG, bringing YTD 0 order wins to SGD3.66bn. Maintain BUY and SGD4.50 TP, implying a 0 23% upside, as we believe positive surprises could arise from the repair segment as well as rebounding operating margins. At 6-8x EV/EBITDAs and 11-13x P/Es for FY14F-16F, valuations are undemanding. Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Oct-13 Vol m Price Close Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Sembcorp Industries 11.8m/9.39m 32.2 23.0 3.58 - 4.62 39 2,089 60.6 2 . 1 0 . 2 Contract worth USD696m. Sembcorp Marine (SembMarine) secured a contract worth USD696m to convert a shuttle tanker into a floating, production and storage offloading (FPSO) vessel for OOGTK Libra GmbH & Co KG, a joint-venture (JV) between Odebrecht Oil & Gas and Teekay Offshore Partners LP. This vessel, with the capacity to produce 50,000 barrels of oil/day and 4m cu m of natural gas/day, is slated for completion in 3Q16 and will be chartered to Petrobras for work on the Libra field. Lumpier order trend than Keppel Corp (Keppel) (KEP SP, BUY, TP: SGD12.50). SembMarine’s order win trend this year has been for fewer but larger projects. Four of its major contract wins out of seven are above SGD500m in value vs Keppel’s three of 10 announced wins of a similar size. The scale of this contract comes as a positive surprise, prompting us to raise our FY14 order win forecast to SGD4.5bn (SGD4.0bn previously). FPSO conversion orders remain strong. SembMarine has won three FPSO conversion contracts this year, vis-à-vis Keppel’s two. We expect fixed/floating production platforms to make up for a near-term slowdown in drilling rig orders as the market absorbs the incoming supply. Valuations undemanding, yield looks attractive. SembMarine is now trading at 6-8x EV/EBITDAs and 11-13x P/Es for FY14F-16F. On the P/E front, SembMarine is now trading at nearly 1SD below its average forward P/E of the last 10 years. Forecast dividend yields are now topping 4%, which we believe will attract income-driven investors. Maintain BUY and SGD4.50 TP, implying a 23% upside. Share Performance (%) YTD Absolute Relative (17.8) (20.7) 1m (5.4) (3.0) 3m (9.2) (8.9) 6m (10.7) (12.4) 12m (19.2) (22.0) Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 4,430 5,526 6,148 6,801 6,766 Reported net profit (SGDm) 538 556 574 631 671 Recurring net profit (SGDm) 541 553 574 631 671 (28.3) 2.3 3.7 9.9 6.4 Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.30 0.32 Total turnover (SGDm) Recurring net profit growth (%) DPS (SGD) 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 Lee Yue Jer, CFA +65 6232 3898 Recurring P/E (x) 14.1 13.8 13.3 12.1 11.4 [email protected] P/B (x) 3.13 2.85 2.57 2.32 2.09 P/CF (x) 36.6 8.1 17.2 9.1 9.2 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.4 7.61 7.25 7.76 6.84 6.09 22.2 21.7 20.3 20.1 19.3 Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (6.4) (5.1) 0.9 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 10 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. 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