1. No category

 Tuomo Kuosa Transforma*on futurist, PhD Alterna*veFutures Strateginen ennankoin, vs. Osallistava ennakoin, – Miksi ennakoin*toiminnot-­‐ ja toimijat edelleen jatkavat erikoistumistaan ja miten suomen julkinen ennakoin*-­‐
järjestelmä eroaa singaporelaisesta? Ton4uväitös 12.12.2012 Strateginen ja osallistava ennakoin, Strategisella ennakoinnilla tarkoitetaan systemaa.sta ennakoin/työtä, jolla tavoitellaan mahdollisimman hyvän kokonaiskuvan kokoamista olemassa olevasta ”peli/lanteesta” ja siinä avautuvista toimivista vaihtoehdoista /etylle päätöksentekijälle. Ennakoin,kar4a Ennakoin,kar4a on Alternna*veFuturesin kehiCämä interak*ivinen tulevaisuus*edon systemaaEsen hyödyntämisen työväline. Se soveltuu sekä strategisen eCä osallistavan ennakoinnin työn tulosten kokoamiseen, analysoimiseen ja visualisoimiseen. Valmis ennakoin*karCa toimii sellaisenaan johdon strategisena työvälineenä, muCa erityisen suositeltavaa sitä on käyCää projek*n alkuvaiheen www.alterna*vefutures.fi Osallistavassa ennakoinnissa tavoi;eena on ak/voida mahdollisimman suuri joukko ihmisiä visioimaan ja tuo;amaan toivo;avaa tulevaisuu;a. Alterna*veFutures -­‐ metodiikka Alterna*veFutures yhdistää tulevaisuuden strategista ja osallistavaa ennakoin*a osallistavaan suunniCeluun, nopeaan konseptoin*in, prototypoin*in ja pilotoin*in. TavoiCeenamme on päästä aina nopeas* ja kustannustehokkaas* käytännössä hyödynneCäviin tuloksiin. www.alterna*vefutures.fi www.yaCa.fi Co-­‐design Ennakoin**etoon perustuva osallistava yhteissuunniCelu on tehokasta. Hyvin fasilitoitujen ja dokumentoitujen workshoppien avulla organisaa*on oma (ja käyCäjien, tässä tapauksessa opiskelijoiden) osaaminen saadaan parhaalla tavalla käyCöön. MoComme on: kuuntele, ymmärrä, innosta ja tee tuloksia. Käytämme kehiCämäämme ideoiden ja konsep*en arvioin*kehikkoa ideoiden jalostamiseksi konsepteiksi. Työskentelemme samaan aikaan kolmella tasolla: Skenaariot-­‐ ja strategiat, ideat ja konsep*t, www.alterna*vefutures.fi sekä vaiheiCainen kehiCäminen (parannukset he*). Value rational level
Decision maker s view
Top-down affecting
Participatory view Bottom-up affecting
Visionary
management
Futurology
La Prospective Pro-activity
Futures Studies
Strategy and brand
development
Critical Futures
Studies
Corporate Foresight
Strategic Foresight
Participatory Foresight
Scenario level
Early warning
Delphi and workshops
Weak signals analysis
Intelligence
Modeling
Horizons scanning
Pattern management
Data mining
Cross-impact analysis
Statistics
Trend extrapolations
Pre-activity
Empirical level
Kuosa 2012
Value rational level
Decision maker’s
view
Top-down affecting
Visionary
management
POLITICAL
VIEWS
Participatory view
Bottom-up affecting
Futurology
La Prospective
Futures Studies
Pro-activity
SELECTING
Strategy and brand
development
STRATEGY
Corporate Foresight
IDENTIFYING VIABLE
StrategicOPTIONS
Foresight
Early warning
Scenario level
RISK
DETECTION
CREATING
Critical Futures
VISIONS AND
Studies (CLA)
STUDYING
VALUES“Participatory”
Foresight
IDENTIFYING
VIABLE OPTIONS
Delphi and workshops
Weak signals analysis
Pattern management
PARTICIPATORY
Cross-impact analysis
ASSESSMENTS
Modeling
Horizons scanning
Intelligence
Data mining
Statistics
Pre-activity
Trend extrapolations
EMPIRICAL
RESEARCH
Empirical level
Kuosa 2012
1940s
World War II
1960s
1970s
1980s
Management
thinking
New Einstein’s science
paradigm
Dialogic
debates
in antiquity
Systems
thinking
Control of
information
Engineering
Categorization
Modeling
Systemic
arguments
Control of functions
Military
Knowing directly
Physical
arguments
Futurology
Humanistic orientation
How to solve the huge
problems of humankind
Humanistic arguments
Dynamical systems
Dialogic
thinking
Proactive
futures
studies
Control of desired
images
Value-rational
Addressing selected
challenges of future
Moral arguments
Enviro
nment
al futu
Paradoxes
Options
Linkages
Mindsets
Cognitive
arguments
res stu
dies
Paradigm III of FS
Control of life
Oracle
Seeing future
directly
Magical
arguments
2020s
Strategic management
Paradigm II of FS
Prediction
thinking
2010s
Strategic Foresight
Paradigm I of FS
2000s
© Kuosa 2011
Haastatellut ja kommentaaCorit Yhdeksän kirjaa varten haastateltua: -­‐  Patrick Nathan -­‐  Ilan Mizrahi -­‐  Jyrki Kasvi -­‐  Helene Lavoix -­‐  RiiCa Kirjavainen -­‐  Markku Wilenius -­‐  Rauno Kuusisto -­‐  Osmo Kuusi -­‐  Devadas Krishnadas Kirjan keskusteluluvun nro. 15 kirjoiCaja: Henry Kwok Singaporean long-­‐term business developer and global partner of Haines Centre for Strategic Management and founder of Spaces@work consultancy. Työpaikat, joissa kirjoiCaminen ja tutkimus on tapahtunut: -­‐  Centre of Excellence for Na*onal Security (CENS) -­‐  S. Rajaratnam School of Interna*onal Studies (RAHS) of Nanyang Technological University in Singapore -­‐  Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office’s Na*onal Security Coordina*on Centre (NSCC) -­‐  Finland Futures Research Centre / Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus -­‐  Alterna*veFutures/YATTA oy Kirjan pääkommentaaCori: Dr John P. Geis Colonel and director of the US Air Force’s Center for Strategy and Technology Muut kommentaaCorit ja kirja-­‐arvostelun kirjoiCajat: -­‐  Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millenium Project, Washington, USA -­‐  Dr Jari Kaivo-­‐oja, Adviser in Foresight R&D, Crisis Management Ini*a*ve, New York & Helsinki Offices -­‐  José Cordeiro, Energy advisor, Singularity University, NASA Ames, California, USA. Kirjan sisältö CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgements Figures Tables PART I: KNOWLEDGE 1. Introduc*on 2. Foresight concepts What is foresight? What is fully-­‐fledged and par*cipatory foresight? What are futures studies and futurology? What are the objec*ves of foresight and futures domain? What are predic*on and fortune-­‐telling? What is an*cipa*on? What is forecas*ng? What is exploratory and norma*ve forecas*ng? What is Greek triangle and la prospec*ve? What is cri*cal futures studies? What is vision? What is weak signal? What are change factors, wild cards, drivers, trends and scenarios? What are grand challenges? 3. Strategic concepts What is strategic? What is intelligence? What are business intelligence and corporate foresight? What is strategic intelligence? What is strategic foresight? Summary of foresight and intelligence concepts 4. Evolu*onary concepts What is evolu*on and co-­‐evolu*on? What is complexity? What is autopoiesis and self-­‐renewal? What is open system and dynamical process? What is dissipa*ve self-­‐organiza*on and emergence? What is chaos theory and chaos in quantum and macro-­‐level? What is far-­‐from-­‐equilibrium and laws of thermodynamics? What is causality and correla*ons in different types of systems? Summary of evolu*onary and systemic concepts 5. Inferring in theory What is reasoning? What is fallibilism? What are the interests of knowledge? What is object, observa*on, interpreta*on and knowledge? What is methodology and research strategy? 6. Inferring in foresight Environmental scanning and data mining Analysis and categorizing PaCern management and synthesizing Roadmapping and technological forecas*ng Crea*ve visioning Early warning and emerging issues analysis Holis*c sense-­‐making Alterna*ve objec*ves and mindsets towards the future Alterna*ve futures scenarios Strategic management Summary of futures domain methodologies PART II: STRUCTURE 7. Principles of strategic foresight in public policy making 8. Strategic foresight in European Union’s some old member states’ public policy making Cases from the European Union Case from Finland Case from France Case from Germany Case from Ireland Case from the Netherlands Case from Sweden Cases from the United Kingdom 9. Strategic foresight in European Union’s ten new member state’s public policy making Cases from Cyprus Cases from the Czech Republic Cases from Estonia Cases from Hungary Cases from Lithuania Cases from Latvia Cases from Malta Cases from Poland Cases from Slovakia Cases from Slovenia 10. Strategic foresight in some other countries’ and transna*onal organiza*ons’ public policy making Cases from Singapore Cases from the United States Cases from OECD Cases from IIASA Cases from UNIDO PART III: PROCESS 11. How could strategic foresight process facilitate na*onal decision making beCer – views of policy makers and high government officials 12. How could strategic foresight process facilitate na*onal decision making beCer – views of strategic foresight knowledge producers 13. How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems – views of strategic foresight knowledge producers 14. How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems – views of policy makers and high government officials PART IV: DISCUSSION 15. Trilogy of systems thinking, foresight and strategic management 16. Adjus*ng foresight, intelligence and inferring for different types of systems Conclusion Bibliography Index Suomalainen ja singaporelainen ennakoinnin järjestelmä Kuosa 2012
Government
Programme
Finnish Parliament
Other 15
committees.
Legislation
issues
Prime Minister’s
Office
Committee for
the Future
Aggregates Parliamentary
report on The Government
Foresight Report
Makes technological
assessment reports for the
Parliament
Conducts research associated
with futures studies
The Government
Foresight Report
Writing is
supervised by a
group of ministers.
Mostly written by
State’s sector
research institutes
PM’s Office’s PolicyAnalysis Unit
Makes submissions to other
committees on futures-related
matters
Finnish Society for
Futures Studies
SITRA’s Foresight
network
Finland Futures
Research Centre
together with FFA
International actors
such as EU, OECD,
IPCC and futurists
communities
Finnish Government
Economic Council
(cheered by PM)
Highest level
discussion and
sense-making
forum between
government’s key
ministers, the head
of Central bank,
and several
representatives of
the Finnish
industries.
Government
Foresight Network
Ministry of
Finance
Predictions for
the economy.
Makes budget
Other 10
National
Ministries
Ministries
Future
Reviews
Long-term Finnish PolicyMaking environment
reports
Finnish futurists
community
State’s
sector
research
institutes
Funding agencies such as TEKES
Futures units in
companies
Think Tanks.
Economic Council’s Secretariat
It is the body, which constantly selects
new themes to be studied, and ends
running studies according the changing
needs of the decision makers.
Foresight
consortium
for labour
force,
competence,
and
educational
needs
Kuosa 2012
Head of Civil
Service
(Peter Ong, 2010)
Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office
Permanent Secretary for
National Security &
Intelligence Coordination
(Peter Ong, 2010)
Joint Counter Terrorism
Centre (JCTC)
Public Service Division
(PSD)
National Security
Coordination
Centre (NSCC)
Other futures or
environment scanning
units in GOS’ ministries
The Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC). est. 2008.
Staff for all RAHS programme analysis work.
Establishing, educating and building futures
capacities to GOS
RAHS Experimentation Centre. est. 2004 in
partnership with HSC and Defence Science &
Technology Agency (DSTA). Engineering work for
risk Assessment and Horizons Scanning. Software
and tools development
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
est. 2006. RSIS-NTU. University research related to
international politics and security related issues.
National Security Engineering Centre (NSEC), est.
2005 by DSTA. Task to advice NSCC to better
coordinate and focus technology and engineering
efforts in national security.
Public Service
Commission
Secretariat (PCS)
etc. units in PSD
Strategic Policy Office (SPO).
Org. Scenario Planning Office
est.1991 to MINDEF. Moved
to PMO in 1995. New name
and objective in 2003
Ministry of Finance
Permanent Secretary for
Finance (Peter Ong)
National Budget,
Financing all Ministries,
Whole of Government
view in Fiscal issues
Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF).
est. 2010. Coordinating staff for all
futures work in GOS incl. SFN. Aiming
for increasing GOS’ situational
awareness, overcoming scale
limitations, and combining knowledge
to practical combination projects
Strategic
Foresight Unit
(SFU). Est.
2010. Aims to
ensure that the
benefits of the
whole of
government
futures work are
utilized in
budget making
Strategic Futures Network (SFN) est. 2010 (Peter
Ong) All Ministries Deputy Secretaries are
members. Aims to A. better diversity of opinions B.
better quality anticipatory intelligence, C. avoiding
the phenomena of group thinking in GOS
Singapore Futures Community (outside the
Government, companies, business schools,
university units)
International Futures Community. Global
Futures Forum, IRAHS Symposium etc.
Head of Civil
Service
(Peter Ong, 2010)
Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office
Permanent Secretary for
National Security &
Intelligence Coordination
(Peter Ong, 2010)
Joint Counter Terrorism
Centre (JCTC)
Public Service Division
(PSD)
National Security
Coordination
Centre (NSCC)
Other futures or
environment scanning
units in GOS’ ministries
The Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC). est. 2008.
Staff for all RAHS programme analysis work.
Establishing, educating and building futures
capacities to GOS
RAHS Experimentation Centre. est. 2004 in
partnership with HSC and Defence Science &
Technology Agency (DSTA). Engineering work for
risk Assessment and Horizons Scanning. Software
and tools development
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
est. 2006. RSIS-NTU. University research related to
international politics and security related issues.
National Security Engineering Centre (NSEC), est.
2005 by DSTA. Task to advice NSCC to better
coordinate and focus technology and engineering
efforts in national security.
Public Service
Commission
Secretariat (PCS)
etc. units in PSD
Strategic Policy Office (SPO).
Org. Scenario Planning Office
est.1991 to MINDEF. Moved
to PMO in 1995. New name
and objective in 2003
Ministry of Finance
Permanent Secretary for
Finance (Peter Ong)
National Budget,
Financing all Ministries,
Whole of Government
view in Fiscal issues
Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF).
est. 2010. Coordinating staff for all
futures work in GOS incl. SFN. Aiming
for increasing GOS’ situational
awareness, overcoming scale
limitations, and combining knowledge
to practical combination projects
Strategic
Foresight Unit
(SFU). Est.
2010. Aims to
ensure that the
benefits of the
whole of
government
futures work are
utilized in
budget making
Strategic Futures Network (SFN) est. 2010 (Peter
Ong) All Ministries Deputy Secretaries are
members. Aims to A. better diversity of opinions B.
better quality anticipatory intelligence, C. avoiding
the phenomena of group thinking in GOS
Singapore Futures Community (outside the
Government, companies, business schools,
university units)
International Futures Community. Global
Futures Forum, IRAHS Symposium etc.
Head of Civil
Service
(Peter Ong, 2010)
Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office
Permanent Secretary for
National Security &
Intelligence Coordination
(Peter Ong, 2010)
Joint Counter Terrorism
Centre (JCTC)
Public Service Division
(PSD)
National Security
Coordination
Centre (NSCC)
Other futures or
environment scanning
units in GOS’ ministries
The Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC). est. 2008.
Staff for all RAHS programme analysis work.
Establishing, educating and building futures
capacities to GOS
RAHS Experimentation Centre. est. 2004 in
partnership with HSC and Defence Science &
Technology Agency (DSTA). Engineering work for
risk Assessment and Horizons Scanning. Software
and tools development
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
est. 2006. RSIS-NTU. University research related to
international politics and security related issues.
National Security Engineering Centre (NSEC), est.
2005 by DSTA. Task to advice NSCC to better
coordinate and focus technology and engineering
efforts in national security.
Public Service
Commission
Secretariat (PCS)
etc. units in PSD
Strategic Policy Office (SPO).
Org. Scenario Planning Office
est.1991 to MINDEF. Moved
to PMO in 1995. New name
and objective in 2003
Ministry of Finance
Permanent Secretary for
Finance (Peter Ong)
National Budget,
Financing all Ministries,
Whole of Government
view in Fiscal issues
Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF).
est. 2010. Coordinating staff for all
futures work in GOS incl. SFN. Aiming
for increasing GOS’ situational
awareness, overcoming scale
limitations, and combining knowledge
to practical combination projects
Strategic
Foresight Unit
(SFU). Est.
2010. Aims to
ensure that the
benefits of the
whole of
government
futures work are
utilized in
budget making
Strategic Futures Network (SFN) est. 2010 (Peter
Ong) All Ministries Deputy Secretaries are
members. Aims to A. better diversity of opinions B.
better quality anticipatory intelligence, C. avoiding
the phenomena of group thinking in GOS
Singapore Futures Community (outside the
Government, companies, business schools,
university units)
International Futures Community. Global
Futures Forum, IRAHS Symposium etc.
Yhteys*edot Tuomo Kuosa Transforma*on futurist, PhD www.alterna*vefutures.fi www.tuomo.tel +358 44 0360688 Tuomo.kuosa (at) alterna*vefutures.fi