Global Research 22 October 2014 Mapletree Logistics Trust Equities Falling occupancies point to structural challenges Singapore Real Estate Rental disruptions due to SUA-MTB conversions in Singapore Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported Q2FY15 distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.88¢ (-1.1% QoQ), slightly below our estimate. Despite increased overseas earnings from recently acquired assets in Korea and Malaysia, overall net property income (NPI) was pulled down by poorer Singapore performance, leading to a 0.4% QoQ dip in NPI. This was mainly due to rental disruptions from the conversion of two single-user assets (SUA) into multi-tenanted buildings (MTB). Both of the previous single-user tenants relocated to their own newly completed facilities, leading to a 1.1ppt QoQ dip in Singapore occupancy to 95.1%. Falling occupancies symptomatic of structural challenges We had viewed demand for logistics assets as more resilient than conventional manufacturing-type industrial assets, but a rising supply of warehouses in western Singapore and recent regulatory changes have heightened pressure on rents and occupancies. For example, management shared that it was unable to accommodate several prospective tenants because they did not qualify as anchor tenants under new JTC regulations. Rental reversions have also slowed to +9% this quarter compared to an average of +17% in the past 8 quarters. Guidance lowered; further headwinds expected in the near term About 31% of SUAs are due for renewal/conversion to MTBs over the next 18 months and management sees downside risk to occupancies during this transition period. Based on previous conversions, newly converted MTB assets typically take 9-15 months to stabilize and reach previous yields, and we think this could lead to earnings weakness in the interim. Neutral 12-month rating Prior: Buy 12m price target S$1.23 Prior: S$1.28 Price S$1.20 RIC: MAPL.SI BBG: MLT SP Trading data and key metrics 52-wk range Market cap. S$1.20-0.99 S$2.94bn/US$2.31bn Shares o/s 2,449m (ORD) Free float 59% Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,884 Avg. daily value (m) S$3.4 Common s/h equity (03/15E) S$2.49bn P/BV (03/15E) 1.2x EPS (UBS, diluted) (S$) From To 0.08 0.07 03/15E 0.08 0.07 03/16E 0.08 0.08 03/17E % ch -2.33 -2.10 -1.66 Cons. 0.08 0.08 0.08 Robin Xie Analyst [email protected] +65-6495 2708 Valuation: Downgrading to Neutral; lowering PT to S$1.23 Year-to-date, MLT has risen 13.7%, making it the top-performing industrial SREIT. While we continue to like MLT's overseas growth potential, fresh concerns over downtime in the Singapore portfolio could put pressure on near-term share price performance. We are trimming our estimates by 1-3% and reducing our DCF-derived PT to S$1.23 from S$1.28. Given the limited upside potential, we are downgrading our rating to Neutral from Buy. Michael Lim Analyst [email protected] +65-6495 5902 Highlights (S$m) Net rental income EBITDA EPS (UBS, S$) DPS (S$) BVPS (basic, S$) NAV per share (UBS, S$) 03/12 239 208 0.06 0.07 0.90 0.90 03/13 268 235 0.07 0.07 0.92 0.92 03/14 268 235 0.07 0.07 0.97 0.97 03/15E 284 249 0.07 0.08 1.01 1.01 03/16E 293 258 0.07 0.08 1.03 - 03/17E 307 270 0.08 0.08 1.05 - 03/18E 317 280 0.08 0.08 1.07 - 03/19E 322 284 0.08 0.08 1.08 - Profitability/valuation PE (UBS) EPS (UBS) yield % Net dividend yield % Prem/(disc) to BVPS % Prem/(disc) to NAV ps % EV/EBITDA (UBS) x 03/12 15.1 6.6 7.5 (0.4) (0.4) 17.5 03/13 16.0 6.2 6.3 17.4 17.7 17.3 03/14 15.9 6.3 6.7 13.5 13.5 17.7 03/15E 16.3 6.1 6.3 18.4 19.0 17.9 03/16E 16.1 6.2 6.3 16.6 17.4 03/17E 15.3 6.5 6.5 14.4 17.7 03/18E 14.8 6.8 6.7 12.5 17.1 03/19E 14.6 6.8 6.8 10.7 16.9 Source: Company accounts, Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of S$1.20 on 21 Oct 2014 22:38 HKT www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 198500648C). ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 10. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Investment Thesis 12-month rating Neutral Mapletree Logistics Trust 12m price target S$1.23 Investment case Business description We like MLT for its geographic diversification, logistics exposure and long lease structure. Organic demand for logistics space is generally healthy across overseas markets where MLT operates, although Singapore is facing a challenging leasing environment. We see growth potential through capital recycling, the redevelopment of older assets and acquisitions. We believe management is increasing its focus on high-growth countries such as China and Korea, where entry NPI yields are in an attractive range of 7-8%, giving a decent spread of 200-300bps over the hedged debt cost of 4-5%. However, near-term growth concerns in Singapore could put pressure on share price performance. The valuation looks fair in our view and we have a Neutral rating. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) is an externally managed REIT. The manager is Mapletree Investments, a 100% owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings. MLT's key investment focus are logistics properties in Asia. It aims to grow its asset base through yield-accretive acquisitions and to provide investors with a sustainable yield and organic growth from its portfolio. It was listed in July 2005 with S$422m in assets. As of October 2014, its portfolio comprised 115 properties with a book value of S$4.4bn, spread across Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, China, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam. Upside scenario We believe MLT is actively on the lookout for acquisitions in markets such as China and Korea, which can be funded by debt, cash or divestment of mature assets. Assuming MLT can acquire S$200m of assets per year (vs. the FY10-FY14 average of ~S$266m/year) at a 250bp spread over its funding cost, our implied upside valuation would be S$1.37. Stronger leasing interest would also improve MLT's ability to raise rents organically. Industry outlook Demand for the logistics space in Singapore is seeing signs of pressure due to rising supply and tighter regulatory restrictions on the use of industrial space. In Japan, strong leasing enquiries continue from 3PLs, retailers and manufacturers. Demand for quality warehouse space is tight, as reflected in low vacancy rates. In Hong Kong, limited new supply over the next 2-3 years is likely to put upward pressure on rents. In Korea, SME tenants are becoming more cautious, although demand from chaebols (which control a large proportion of logistic activities) remains firm. Net property income by region (Q2FY15) Downside scenario If MLT fails to acquire any additional assets and property expenses outpace rental growth, while yields expand towards the +1x standard deviation level of 7.8%, our downside valuation would be S$0.98. Rising interest rates and unfavourable FX movements are additional risks that could diminish the attractiveness of MLT as a yield instrument. Malaysia China 6% 5% Vietnam 0.4% South Korea 10% Singapore 43% Upcoming catalysts Potential positive catalysts include: 1) yield-accretive acquisitions, both from the sponsor pipeline and externally; 2) a pick-up in demand for logistics space, driven by improving global trading conditions and growth of e-commerce across Asia-Pacific; and 3) compression of cap rates. Hong Kong 15% Japan 21% Source: Company data, UBS EBIT by product segment All of MLT's operating income is derived from renting and managing logistics properties. Robin Xie, Analyst, [email protected], +65-6495 2708 Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 2 Q2FY15 results summary Figure 1: Key financials (S$ m) Sep-13 Jun-14 Sep-14 Q2FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 QoQ YoY 66.6 69.0 68.7 -0.4% 3.1% 0.1 0.2 0.2 nm nm 66.7 69.2 68.9 -0.4% 3.3% Total management fees 7.7 8.0 8.1 0.8% 5.2% Interest expense 7.3 7.7 8.0 3.6% 9.4% Net property income Interest income Total income Trustee's fees 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3% 3.2% Trust expenses / (income) 1.3 1.0 0.9 nm nm Forex losses / (gains) 50.3 52.2 51.8 -0.9% 2.9% Net investment income (3.2) (2.9) (3.1) nm nm Less: Tax 47.2 49.4 48.7 -1.3% 3.3% NPAT (core) 5.6 0.9 4.2 nm nm Other inc / (exp) 1.0 (7.8) 3.2 nm nm 53.8 42.5 56.1 nm nm Total return (reported) Distribution paid 44.5 46.6 46.3 -0.7% 4.0% DPU ¢ / unit 1.82 1.90 1.88 -1.1% 3.3% Q2FY15 DPU of 1.88¢ (-1.1% QoQ) was in slightly below our estimate Source: Company data, UBS Sequential dip in earnings due to SUA-MTB conversions in Singapore. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported Q2FY15 distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.88¢ (-1.1% QoQ), slightly below our estimate. Despite higher overseas earnings from recently acquired assets in Korea and Malaysia, overall NPI fell 0.4% QoQ due to weakness in the Singapore portfolio (Figure 2). The weakness was due mainly to rental disruptions caused by the conversion of two single-user assets (SUA) into multi-tenanted buildings (MTB), at 31 Penjuru Lane and 25 Pandan Crescent. We believe both of the previous single-user tenants relocated to their own newly completed facilities, leading to a sequential 1.1ppt dip in MLT's Singapore occupancy to 95.1% (Figure 3) and a 5.6% QoQ decline in Singapore net property income (NPI). Figure 2: Country level NPI Jun-14 Sep-14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 QoQ Singapore 31,160 29,412 -5.6% Affected by SUA-MTB conversions Japan 14,720 14,364 -2.4% NPI affected by FX, but offset by hedges Hong Kong 10,378 10,573 1.9% South Korea 6,149 6,995 13.8% Lifted by acquisition of Daehwa Logistics China 3,260 3,140 -3.7% Higher O&M and fire insurance costs Malaysia 3,014 3,899 29.4% Lifted by acquisition of Flex Hub Vietnam 285 279 -2.1% 68,966 68,662 -0.4% NPI Total Comments Sequential growth from newly acquired assets in Korea and Malaysia was offset by lower occupancies in Singapore due to SUA-MTB conversions Source: Company data, UBS Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 3 Falling occupancies symptomatic of structural challenges. Management hopes to bring occupancies at the aforementioned assets back to 100% by March 2015 (currently: ~40%), although we think this will be challenging. We had viewed demand for logistics assets as more resilient than conventional industrial assets, but a rising supply of warehouses in western Singapore and recent regulatory changes have heightened pressure on rents and occupancies. For example, anchor tenants must now have a minimum occupation period of 3 years (previously: no minimum) and can only sublet, at most, 30% of the building (down from a cap of 50%). As a result, management shared that it was unable to accommodate several prospective tenants because they did not qualify as anchor tenants. Conversely, larger tenants who qualify as anchors have increased their bargaining power, contributing to lower rental reversion of +9% this quarter, compared to the average of +17% in the past 8 quarters (Figure 4). Figure 3: Country occupancy breakdown Figure 4: Rental reversion trend 100% 30% 99% 25% 98% 20% 97% 96% 15% Source: Company data Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Sep-14 Dec-12 0% Sep-12 Jun-14 5% Jun-12 97.6% 97.2% Portfolio Japan Singapore 93% 10% Mar-12 100.0% 100.0% Vietnam 99.9% 99.1% China 100.0% 100.0% 95.1% 98.1% S.Korea Malaysia 99.9% 99.8% Hong Kong 100.0% 100.0% 94% 96.2% 95.1% 95% Source: Company data, UBS Guidance lowered; further weakness expected. SUAs currently form 55% of MLT's portfolio by revenue, ~31% of which are due for renewal/conversion over the next 18 months (mostly in Singapore). Management expects further downside risk to occupancies during this transition period. Based on previous conversions, newly converted MTB assets typically take 9-15 months to stabilize and reach previous yields, potentially leading to near-term DPU volatility. Figure 5: Lease expiry profile (by NLA, Sep-14) Figure 6: Debt maturity profile – total S$1,473m 38.5% 40% 25% 21% 35% 30% 18.5% 25% 21.5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20% 20% 19.7% 15% 12.3% 10% 18% 13% 9.3% 11.7% 7.0% 6.3% 12.2% 7.4% 5.4% 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 MTB 3.7% 8% 6% 20.0% 7% 7% FY21 FY22 5% 1.6% 3.3% FY18 Single user Source: Company data Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 FY19 >FY19 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Source: Company data 4 Capital management FX hedges. To mitigate the outcome of a weaker Yen, management has hedged ~80% of its Yen-denominated income over the next 3 years at an estimated SGDJPY rate in the range of 71 to 76. We believe this should largely mitigate MLT's near-term DPU impact from Yen weakness. UBS economists expect the Yen to continue weakening against the S$ over the next year to SGDJPY=88.5 (from ~84 currently). Overseas growth could offset domestic weakness Four additions to the acquisition pipeline. Three assets in China and one in Iskandar Malaysia, totalling 324,300 sqm GFA, were added to the sponsor pipeline this quarter (Figure 7). We think the increase in pipeline assets would contribute to MLT's mid-term growth, although the assets are unlikely to be acquired in the next 2-3 years, as the land tenders for these developments were only recently awarded. Purchase of China assets from the pipeline. MLT recently completed the debtfunded acquisition of Mapletree Zhengzhou and Yangshan from its sponsor for S$83.9m. Management expects the assets to generate an initial NPI yield of 7.58.0%, providing a decent spread of 250-300bps over the hedged borrowing cost of ~5%. All-in, the deal is positive at the margin and adds ~1% to our DPU estimates. Medium term, other assets that could be acquired include Mapletree Tianjin Airport and Mapletree Bac Ninh, valued at around S$20-40m each. Figure 7: Mapletree Investments' logistics projects in Asia No Location Project GFA (sqm) 1 Tianjin Mapletree Tianjin Airport Logistics Park 2 Tianjin Mapletree Tianjin Port HaiFeng Bonded Logistics Park 3 Tianjin Mapletree Tianjin Wuqing Logistics Park** 30,100 4 Wuxi Mapletree Wuxi New District Logistics Park 5 Chongqing Mapletree Chongqing Jiangjin Industrial Park 6 Xi'an 7 Xi'an 8 Completion status Committed occupancies 66,500 Completed 40% 194,100 Completed >90% Awarded land tender - 124,200 Ground breaking in Mar-14 - 47,600 Ground breaking in Aug-14 - Mapletree Fengdong Logistics Park Phase 1 44,000 Awarded land tender - Mapletree Fengdong Logistics Park Phase 2 75,000 Awarded land tender - Hunan Mapletree Changsha High-Tech Logistics Park 79,800 Awarded land tender - 9 Jiangsu Mapletree Nantong NCEDZ Logistics Park** 78,000 Awarded land tender - 10 Zhejiang Mapletree Hangzhou Xiaoshan Logistics Park** 96,200 Awarded land tender - Ground breaking in Mar-14 - China sub-total 11 Hong Kong 835,500 Mapletree Logistics Park Tsing Yi Hong Kong sub-total 85,000 85,000 11 Kanagawa Odawara Centre 12 Ibaraki Joso Centre Japan sub-total 205,500 Completed 100% (BTS) 27,200 Completed 100% (BTS) 232,700 13 Iskandar, Johor Mapletree Logistics Park - Tanjung Pelepas** 14 Selangor Mapletree Shah Alam Logistics Park Malaysia sub-total 120,000 60,000 Awarded land tender Completed >90% 180,000 14 Bin Duong Mapletree Logistics Park (Binh Duong) 440,000 Ph.1&2 completed 15 Bac Ninh Mapletree Bac Ninh Logistics Park 310,000 Ph.1 completed Vietnam sub-total Grand total ~80% (Ph.1&2) 100% (Ph.1) 750,000 2,083,200 ** Denotes new additions to the list this quarter. Source: Company data, UBS Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 5 Earnings and valuation Figure 8: Forward price to book (x) Figure 9: Forward yield (%) 10 2.00 1.75 9 1.50 8 1.25 1.00 7 0.75 6 0.50 5 0.25 Avg Yield Source: UBS estimates Avg +Stdev Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-06 Aug-06 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-05 Jan-06 PBV Aug-05 4 0.00 -Stdev Source: UBS estimates Downgrading to Neutral from Buy (PT: S$1.23). Year-to-date, the MLT share price has risen 13.7%, making it the top performing industrial SREIT share. While we continue to like MLT's capital recycling and overseas growth potential, we believe fresh concerns over downtime in the Singapore portfolio could put pressure on share price performance in the near term. We are trimming our estimates by 1-3% and reducing our price target to S$1.23 from S$1.28. Our DCF-derived PT assumes a risk-free rate of 2.6% and 8.6% cost of equity. Given the limited upside, we are downgrading our rating to Neutral from Buy. Figure 10: Revisions to estimates FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E All-in EPU previous 7.54 7.62 7.96 8.07 All-in EPU new 7.35 7.50 7.83 7.99 -2.6% -1.7% -1.6% -1.0% 7.63 7.64 7.95 8.06 % change DPU previous DPU new % change 7.55 7.52 7.85 8.02 -1.0% -1.6% -1.2% -0.6% Source: UBS estimates Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 6 Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI) Income statement (S$m) Net rental income Investment income Trading income Associates and other income Total income Interest payable Admin and other Revenue surplus / recurring income Interest capitalised Depreciation & amortisation Pre-exceptional provisions Profit before tax (UBS) Exceptionals Profit before tax Tax Profit after tax Minorities Preference dividends Extraordinary items (post-tax) Net earnings (local GAAP) Tax rate (UBS) (%) EBITDA EBIT 03/12 239 1 0 0 240 (37) (31) 172 0 0 0 172 10 182 (26) 156 (2) (1) 0 154 15.0 208 208 03/13 268 1 0 0 269 (39) (33) 198 0 0 0 198 19 216 (14) 202 (1) (19) 0 182 7.1 235 235 03/14 268 1 0 0 268 (29) (33) 206 0 0 0 206 18 224 (17) 207 (1) (19) 0 187 8.3 235 235 03/15E 284 1 0 0 284 (32) (35) 218 0 0 0 218 0 217 (17) 200 (1) (19) 0 181 7.9 249 249 % ch Per share (S$) EPS (UBS) Net DPS (S$) BVPS (basic) NAV per share Cash EPS (UBS) Average shares 03/12 0.06 0.07 0.90 0.90 0.06 2,426 03/13 0.07 0.07 0.92 0.92 0.07 2,426 03/14 0.07 0.07 0.97 0.97 0.07 2,439 03/15E 0.07 0.08 1.01 1.01 0.07 2,461 % ch Balance sheet (S$m) Investment properties (book value) Development properties (book value) Other fixed assets Total fixed assets (book value) Trading properties (book value) Cash & deposits Other current assets Total assets (book value) Debt Other liabilities Preference shares Minority interests Shareholders equity / NTA Surpluses over book value (UBS) S/h equity / NTA (basic) S/h equity / NTA (diluted) 03/12 4,058 0 21 4,079 0 168 26 4,273 (1,495) (240) (344) (7) 2,186 0 2,186 2,186 03/13 4,050 0 40 4,090 0 135 12 4,237 (1,434) (221) (344) (6) 2,232 0 2,232 2,232 03/14 4,235 0 31 4,267 0 114 16 4,397 (1,455) (209) (344) (6) 2,382 0 2,382 2,382 03/15E 4,483 0 28 4,510 0 119 16 4,645 (1,592) (209) (344) (6) 2,493 0 2,493 2,493 % ch Cash flow (S$m) EBIT Depreciation & amortisation Net change in working capital Net interest Tax paid Other (operating) Operating cash flow Net (acquisitions) / capex Dividends paid Share issues / (buybacks) Net other cash flows Cash flow (inc)/dec in net debt Net (debt) / cash 03/12 208 0 0 (36) (26) 0 146 (293) (162) 0 0 (309) (1,327) 03/13 235 0 0 (38) (14) 0 183 (197) (166) 0 0 (180) (1,299) 03/14 235 0 0 (29) (17) 0 189 (101) (180) 0 0 (92) (1,341) 03/15E 249 0 0 (31) (17) 0 201 (158) (184) 0 0 (141) (1,473) % ch 6.0 0.0 - 6.0 -8.5 -5.8 5.7 5.7 0.0 - 5.7 - -2.9 -1.0 -3.2 -8.2 0.00 - -3.6 -4.5 6.1 6.1 5.9 2.7 4.2 3.7 5.9 0.9 5.8 -12.1 5.7 4.1 -2.7 5.6 -9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.69 - 4.69 4.7 6.1 0.0 -8.7 -1.0 - 6.1 -56.5 -2.3 - -54.1 -9.82 03/16E 293 1 0 0 294 (36) (35) 222 0 0 0 222 0 222 (18) 205 (1) (19) 0 185 7.9 258 258 % ch 03/16E 0.07 0.08 1.03 0.07 2,482 % ch 03/16E 4,554 0 28 4,582 0 119 16 4,717 (1,601) (209) (344) (6) 2,556 0 2,556 2,556 % ch 03/16E 258 0 0 (35) (18) 0 205 (9) (186) 0 0 10 (1,482) % ch 3.2 0.0 - 3.2 -12.9 -2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 - 2.0 - 2.2 -2.0 2.3 0.0 0.00 - 2.5 0.0 3.4 3.4 1.3 -0.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.5 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.49 - 2.49 2.5 3.4 0.0 -13.1 -2.0 - 2.0 94.3 -1.1 - -0.66 03/17E 307 1 0 0 307 (38) (36) 233 0 0 0 233 0 233 (18) 215 (1) (19) 0 196 7.7 270 270 03/18E 317 1 0 0 318 (38) (37) 243 0 0 0 243 0 243 (18) 225 (1) (19) 0 205 7.5 280 280 03/19E 322 1 0 0 322 (38) (38) 246 0 0 0 246 0 246 (19) 228 (1) (19) 0 208 7.6 284 284 03/17E 0.08 0.08 1.05 0.08 2,502 03/18E 0.08 0.08 1.07 0.08 2,522 03/19E 0.08 0.08 1.08 0.08 2,542 03/17E 4,634 0 28 4,662 0 119 16 4,797 (1,611) (209) (344) (6) 2,626 0 2,626 2,626 03/18E 4,709 0 28 4,737 0 119 16 4,871 (1,621) (209) (344) (6) 2,690 0 2,690 2,690 03/19E 4,785 0 28 4,813 0 119 16 4,948 (1,631) (209) (344) (6) 2,756 0 2,756 2,756 03/17E 270 0 0 (37) (18) 0 215 (9) (196) 0 0 10 (1,492) 03/18E 280 0 0 (37) (18) 0 225 (9) (206) 0 0 10 (1,502) 03/19E 284 0 0 (38) (19) 0 228 (10) (209) 0 0 9 (1,512) Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 7 Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI) Valuation PE (UBS) x EV/EBIT (core) x EV/EBITDA (core) x P/CEPS (UBS) x CEPS yield (UBS) % Net dividend yield % Net property yield % BVPS (basic, S$) NAV per share (S$) Prem/(disc) to BVPS % Prem/(disc) to NAV per share % 03/12 15.1 17.5 17.5 15.1 6.6 7.5 6.8 0.90 0.90 (0.4) (0.4) 03/13 16.0 17.3 17.3 16.0 6.2 6.3 6.8 0.92 0.92 17.4 17.7 03/14 15.9 17.7 17.7 15.9 6.3 6.7 6.8 0.97 0.97 13.5 13.5 03/15E 16.3 17.9 17.9 16.3 6.1 6.3 6.8 1.01 1.01 18.4 19.0 03/16E 16.1 17.4 17.4 16.1 6.2 6.3 6.8 1.03 16.6 - 03/17E 15.3 17.7 17.7 15.3 6.5 6.5 7.7 1.05 14.4 - 03/18E 14.8 17.1 17.1 14.8 6.8 6.7 7.8 1.07 12.5 - 03/19E 14.6 16.9 16.9 14.6 6.8 6.8 7.8 1.08 10.7 - Enterprise value (S$m) Market cap. Net debt (cash) Buy out of minorities Pension obligations/other Total enterprise value Non core assets Core enterprise value 03/12 2,178 1,457 0 0 3,635 0 3,635 03/13 2,621 1,442 0 0 4,064 0 4,064 03/14 2,686 1,463 0 0 4,149 0 4,149 03/15E 2,938 1,529 0 0 4,468 0 4,468 03/16E 2,938 1,534 0 0 4,472 0 4,472 03/17E 2,938 1,831 6 0 4,776 0 4,776 03/18E 2,938 1,841 6 0 4,786 0 4,786 03/19E 2,938 1,846 6 0 4,791 0 4,791 Growth (%) Recurring income (UBS, pre-tax) CEPS (UBS) BVPS (basic) NAV per share EBITDA (core) DPS 03/12 0.5 (11.1) 4.9 4.7 1.3 2.4 03/13 14.8 13.6 2.1 1.8 13.3 2.4 03/14 4.4 3.1 5.7 6.0 (0.2) 7.4 03/15E 5.7 5.9 4.2 3.7 6.1 2.7 03/16E 2.0 1.3 1.6 3.4 (0.3) 03/17E 4.9 4.8 1.9 4.9 4.3 03/18E 4.1 3.9 1.7 3.6 2.1 03/19E 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 Profitability ROE % Interest cover x Dividend cover x Cash earnings (UBS) dividend cover x 03/12 6.7 5.7 0.9 0.9 03/13 7.4 6.1 1.1 1.0 03/14 7.4 8.0 1.0 0.9 03/15E 7.4 7.8 1.0 1.0 03/16E 7.3 7.2 1.0 1.0 03/17E 7.6 7.2 1.0 1.0 03/18E 7.7 7.4 1.0 1.0 03/19E 7.6 7.4 1.0 1.0 Productivity (%) Pre-exceptional tax rate Net debt/revalued net assets Net debt/(revalued gross assets-cash) Net debt/EV EBITDA/interest expense x Net debt/EBITDA x 03/12 15.0 52 32 36.5 5.7 6.4 03/13 7.1 50 32 32.0 6.1 5.5 03/14 8.3 49 31 32.3 8.0 5.7 03/15E 7.9 52 33 33.0 7.8 5.9 03/16E 7.9 51 32 33.1 7.2 5.8 03/17E 7.7 50 32 31.2 7.2 5.5 03/18E 7.5 50 32 31.4 7.4 5.4 03/19E 7.6 49 31 31.6 7.4 5.3 Investment properties by location % Japan Asia (including Australia) Europe North America South America Other Total 03/12 1 99 0 0 0 0 100 03/13 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 03/14 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 03/15E 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 03/16E 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 03/17E 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 03/18E 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 03/19E 25 75 0 0 0 0 100 Investment properties by sector % Offices Retail Industrials Hotels Other Total commercial Residential Total 03/12 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/13 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/14 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/15E 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/16E 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/17E 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/18E 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 03/19E 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 8 Forecast returns Forecast price appreciation Forecast dividend yield Forecast stock return Market return assumption Forecast excess return +2.5% 6.3% +8.8% 7.4% +1.4% Statement of Risk Risks include those associated with operating in the real estate investment/ management environment, as well as risks associated with the regulatory, planning and capital-raising environment. Valuation risks include the changing Rf rate under CAPM analysis. Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 9 Required Disclosures This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS. 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UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions 12-Month Rating Definition Coverage1 IB Services2 Buy FSR is > 6% above the MRA. 47% 34% Neutral FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. 42% 28% Sell FSR is > 6% below the MRA. 11% 21% Short-Term Rating Definition Coverage3 IB Services4 Buy Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. less than 1% less than 1% Sell Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. less than 1% less than 1% Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 30 September 2014. 1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. 3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category. 4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. KEY DEFINITIONS: Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). 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Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 10 Company Disclosures Company Name Reuters 12-month rating Short-term rating Price Price date Mapletree Logistics Trust MAPL.SI Neutral N/A S$1.20 22 Oct 2014 Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close. Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report. Mapletree Logistics Trust (S$) Stock Price (S$) Price Target (S$) 1.50 1.00 0.50 01-Oct-14 01-Jul-14 01-Apr-14 01-Jan-14 01-Oct-13 01-Jul-13 01-Apr-13 01-Jan-13 01-Oct-12 01-Jul-12 01-Apr-12 01-Jan-12 01-Oct-11 01-Jul-11 01-Apr-11 01-Jan-11 01-Oct-10 01-Jul-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jan-10 01-Oct-09 0.00 Buy Source: UBS; as of 22 Oct 2014 Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014 11 Global Disclaimer This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., an affiliate of UBS AG. 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