Perspective Plan of Bangladesh
2010 -2021
Presentation by
Dr. Muhammad G. Sarwar
at
Civil Service College, Dhaka
14 June 2010
1
Presentation Contents
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Rationale for Development Planning
in Bangladesh
Guiding Principles of Development
Planning in Bangladesh
Chronology of Perspective Plan
Preparation in Bangladesh
Perspective Plan of Bangladesh
2010 -2021
2
Selected Development Parameters:
Bangladesh, LMI and UMI
Sl
no
Dev. Parameters
Bangladesh LMI
Countries
UMI
Countries
1
GNI per capita (US$)
700
1,000
3,700
2
Unemployment rate (%)
30
-
-
3
Poverty level (%)
40
15
12
4
Gini coefficient (income distribution)
0.46
0.27
0.32
5
Investment/GDP ratio (%)
24
35
40
6
Agricultural value added per worker
($)
338
513
2,800
7
Manufacturing value added as % of
GDP
17
24
31
8
Industrialization base
narrow
diversified
Highly
diversified
9
Export base
narrow
diversified
Highly
diversified
3
Selected Development Parameters (contd.)
Sl
no
Dev. Parameters
Bangladesh
LMI
Countries
UMI
Countries
10
Child malnutrition (%)
39
30
6
Adult literacy (%)
Male
Female
59
48
78
66
89
87
Net School enrolment
Primary
Secondary
91
44
90
65
94
80
Infant mortality (per 1000 live births)
47
8
7
Maternal mortality (per 1000 live births)
570
240
-
Paved roads (%)
10
48
80
Per capita electricity consumption (kwh)
146
685
1,677
Mobile phone (per 1000 population
22
28
54
Law and Order scale = 1 to 5
1
3
3
4
Chronology of Perspective Plan
Preparation
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1979: Preliminary Thoughts on a
Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 1980 2000
1983: Thoughts about Perspective Plan
1995: Participatory Perspective Plan of
Bangladesh 1995 – 2010
2010: Outline Perspective Plan of
Bangladesh 2010 – 2021:
making vision 2021 a reality
5
Guiding Principles of Development
Planning in Bangladesh
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Bangladesh State Constitution
Millennium Development Goals
SAARC Development Goals
Other International Conventions
Election Manifesto of Party in Power
6
Bangladesh Development Planning is based on the
State Constitution (Part II, Articles 9 -20)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Article 14: emancipation of the peasants and workers
from all forms of exploitation;
Article 15: provision of basic necessities of life- food,
clothing, shelter, education, and medical care;
Article 16: rural and agricultural development;
Article 17: free and compulsory education;
Article 18: improvement of nutrition and public health;
Article 19: equality of opportunity to all citizen;
Article 10: participation of women in national life.
Article 9: promotion of local govt. institutions for
improving public service delivery;
7
MDGs: Global Poverty Reduction
Goals
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MDG 1: Halve the proportion of poor and hungry people;
MDG 2: Ensure that boys and girls can complete primary
schooling;
MDG 3: Eliminate gender disparity;
MDG 4: Reduce under-five mortality rates;
MDG 5: Reduce the maternal mortality ratio;
MDG 6: Reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and the
incidence of malaria and TB;
MDG 7: Improve the access of safe water, basic
sanitation and the lives of slum dwellers;
MDG 8: Develop a global partnership to create a nondiscriminatory global trading and financial system.
8
Vision of the Perspective Plan
2010 -2021
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Making Bangladesh a middle-income and a high
HDI country by 2021, the Golden Jubilee Year of
national independence
Graduating Bangladesh to a resilient democratic
nation
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Democratic culture
Right to information and free media
Independence of judiciary
Gender balanced society
Food and energy secured country
Knowledge based society
Strengthening ICT towards ‘digital Bangladesh’
Protecting environment and meeting climate
change challenges
9
Key Development Targets
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Increasing and sustaining annual GDP growth rate to 8%
by 2013 and 10% by 2017 and raising per capita income
to US$ 2000;
Reducing the poverty headcount ratio to 15% by 2021;
Achieve self-sufficiency in food by 2012;
Transforming the sectoral composition of GDP with the
share of agriculture, industry and services standing at
15%, 40% and 45% respectively by 2021;
Reduction of unemployment rate 15%;
Transforming the employment shares of agriculture,
industry, and services to 30%, 25% and 45% respectively
by 2021;
Ensuring 100% net enrolment at primary school as soon
as possible after 2010;
Providing free tuition up to degree level as soon as
possible after 2013;
Attaining full literacy as soon as possible after 2014;
10
Key Development Targets (contd.)
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Ensure living accommodation for the entire population as
soon as possible after 2015;
Supply of pure drinking water for the entire population
as soon as possible after 2011;
Bring each house under hygienic sanitation by 2013;
Eliminate all contagious diseases;
Increase life expectancy to 70 years by 2021;
Reduce maternal mortality to 1.5%;
Raise the use of birth control methods to 80%;
Reducing infant mortality to 15 per thousand live births
by 2021;
Generating 11,500 mw by 2015 and 20,000 mw by 2021
and ensuring per capita energy consumption up to 600
kwh
11
Development Priorities of the Perspective
Plan
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Ensuring corruption free effective governance
Promoting an innovative people for digital Bangladesh
Creating a caring society
Ensuring broad-based growth and food security
Energy security for development
Building a sound infrastructure
Mitigating the impact of climate change
Addressing globalization and regional cooperation
challenges
12
Corruption Free Good Governance for
Economic Growth
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Institutions of the State will be free from partisan influence.
The basis of appointment and promotion in the civil service
will be performance, commitment, efficiency, honesty and
loyalty
Self-reliant local self-government institutions will be
established at Upazila and Zila levels. Local government
institutions will play a critical role in governance as well as in
development programes
Anti-corruption movement
Installing a transparent procurement system
Formation of a effective office of Ombudsman
Introducing agency performance ranking
Targets for good governance
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Develop a country specific governance measurement mechanism
by 2012
Develop a composite set of Agency Performance Indicators for
the Ministries/ Divisions by 2014
13
Macroeconomic Strategic Goals of the
Perspective Plan
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Equitable, environmentally sustainable,
inclusive pro-poor accelerated growth;
Productivity growth across all sectors of the
economy;
Acceleration of investment from domestic
resources;
Speeding up of employment keeping in view
the issues of gender dimension;
Stabilization of general price level; and
Structural transformation in the economy
14
Macroeconomic Framework of PP
Sl.
No
Benchmark
FY09
Target
FY15
Target
FY21
1
Real GDP Growth (%)
5.9
8.0
10.0
2
Gross Investment (as % of GDP)
24,2
32.1
37.5
3
Gross Domestic Savings (as % of GDP)
24.0
27.0
30.0
4
Government Revenue (as % of GDP)
10.4
15.5
17.1
5
Government Expenditure (as % of GDP)
13.8
20.5
21.8
6
Exports (billion US $)
15.6
36.3
91.1
7
Import (billion US $)
20.3
49.6
131.3
8
Remittances (billion US $)
9.7
22.7
48.5
9
CPI Inflation (%)
6.7
7.4
7.9
10
Unemployment rate (%)
20.0
15.0
11
Poverty headcount (%)
24.5
14.4
30.0
36.0
15
Projected GDP Growth Rate
16
Projected Poverty Headcount
Ratio
17
Planned Structural Change in Bangladesh Economy
by 2015 and 2021
Sl Sectors
n
o
Benchmark Target
FY2009
FY2015
Target
FY202
1
1 Agriculture
21.7
16.0
15.0
2 Industry
29.0
35.0
40.0
17.1
26.0
30.0
49.3
49.0
45.0
Manufacturing
3 Service
18
Structure of Bangladesh Economy
2009
19
Structure of Bangladesh Economy
2021
20
Structural Change in External sector
by 2015 and 2021
Sl Items (as % of GDP)
no
Benchmark
FY 2009
Target
2015
Target
2012
1
Export
16.1
22.0
26.0
2
Import
21.4
30.0
32.0
3
Trade balance
-5.3
-8.0
-6.0
4
Remittance
8.3
8.0
12.0
5
Current AC balance
1.0
2.0
6.0
21
Vision 2021: education
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Elimination of illiteracy as soon as possible after
2014;
Ensuring 100% net enrolment at primary school
as soon as possible after 2010 with specific steps
to address the dropout problem;
Providing free tuition up to degree level as soon
as possible after 2013;
Emergence of Bangladesh as a country of
educated people with skill in ICT;
Moving towards knowledge based society based
on science and technology education.
22
Vision 2021: health
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Supply of pure drinking water for the entire population
as soon as possible after 2011;
Bring each house under hygienic sanitation by 2013;
Eliminate all contagious diseases;
Reduce maternal mortality to 1.5%;
Increasing CPR from 56% to 80%;
Reducing infant mortality to 15 per thousand live births
by 2021;
Reducing TFR from 2.7 to 2.2;
Increase life expectancy to 70 years by 2021.
23
Agriculture Development by 2021:
Crops Production Projection
Sl Crops
no
(in mil. tons)
Benchmar
k
2008
Target
2015
Target
2021
Rice
30.70
35.39
36.81
Wheat
0.84
1.16
1.40
Maize
1.35
1.63
1.85
Potato
6.65
8.76
10.34
Oilseeds
0.36
0.45
0.52
Pulses
0.20
0.26
0.31
24
Agriculture Development by 2021:
Fisheries Production Projection
(in thousand tons)
Sl Types of Fisheries
n
o
Benchmark
Fy2008
Target
2015
Target
FY2021
1
Inland open water
1060
1690
1764
2
Closed water bodies
1006
1409
1761
3
Marine
498
566
614
4
Total
2563
3665
4139
25
Agriculture Development by 2021:
Livestock & Poultry Population Projection
(million)
Sl
no
Species
Benchmar
k 2005
Target
2015
Target
2021
1
Bovine animals
25.14
28.47
30.73
2
Sheep & goat
17.47
19.78
21.41
3
Poultry
188.40
231.45
239.85
26
Energy Security: targets for electricity
production
Electricity Production (in
MW)
Benchmark
2009
Target
2015
Target
2021
5,000
11,500 20,000
27
Energy Security: energy mix scenario
Energy mix (%)
Current
2021
1
Gas
87.5
30
2
Oil
6
3
3
Coal
3.7
53
4
hydro
2.7
1
5
Nuclear
0
10
6
Renewable
0.5
3
28
Implementation Phasing of Perspective
Plan 2010 - 2021

Perspective Plan 2010 -2021 would
be implemented in two phased by
preparing and implementing two
Five Year Plans:
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
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011 – 2015; and
Seventh Five Year Plan 2016 - 2020
29
Thanks
30