Regional Workshop on ICT Indicators: from Policy & Strategy to Impact
Impact of ICT and Selected e-Services
on Socio-Economic Development
Rami Zaatari
ICT Applications Section
ICT Division
www.escwa.un.org
8-9 June 2012
Outline
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Impact of ICTs
Complexity of Assessment: Impact/Region Specific
International/Regional Stakeholders
The Role of ESCWA
Methodologies of Impact Assessment
Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socioeconomic development
• ICT Impact Analysis – In Practice
• Conclusion
Impact of ICTs
• ICTs have changed the way we live work and communicate
• WSIS - ICTs can have a tremendous positive impact as an
instrument of sustainable development
• WSIS called on all stakeholders to benefit from the
opportunities offered by ICTs
• Important impact areas to consider based on the 10 WSIS
targets (UNCTAD)
– Impacts of ICT access, especially on poor and rural communities;
– Impacts of ICT use on educational outcomes and the importance of
school curricula in preparing students for the information society;
– Impacts of ICT networks on health institutions and health outcomes;
– Impacts arising from the availability of e-government services;
– Impacts of improving access to information and knowledge by suitable
access to electronic content.
Complexity of Assessment: Impact
Specific
• Measuring impact in any field is difficult;
• Added difficulty for ICTs: complex, multi-faceted
landscape of ICT, rapidly changing nature;
• Diverse nature of impact: macro, micro, direct,
indirect, short-term, long term, qualitative,
quantitative, social, economic, environmental,…
• Impact is not always positive, could be negative;
• Various frameworks and models;
• Lack of data and data collection;
• No internationally comparable indicators are
available yet;
ICT Impact Analysis – In Practice
• The S-curve model is the one most adopted for
ICT impact measurement;
• Misunderstanding
that impact analysis is
sequential; i.e. readiness
must be achieved, then
intensity and only then
can ICT have an impact;
• This is not the message – impact analysis can be
performed at various stages of maturity and in
various ways.
Complexity of Assessment: Region
Specific
• Different levels of country development:
Developed, Developing and leased developed
• Lack of awareness and capacity building in ICT
and IS measurement;
• Limited statistical capabilities;
• Policies and Statistics: the missing link;
• Canopy if ICT is spread among different
ministries, agencies, entities (MoICT, MoE,
MoC, TRA, NSO, etc..).
Striking differences in the Arab Region
Comparison of Arab versus developed countries in selected areas
Area of Interest
GCC
Non-GCC
Developed Countries
GDP Per Capita
High
Low to Moderate
High
Family Size
Large
Large
Small
Expatriates
Large
Small
Small
Digital Divide
Low to Moderate
Moderate to High
Low
Adult illiteracy rate
Low to Moderate
Low to High
Low to Zero
International/Regional Stakeholders
• OECD, ITU UNCTAD, WB, UN Regional
Commissions, IDRC, Donors are all active;
• Their contributions vary from the 3-stage impact
analysis model, to various socio-economic impact
models:
- Strong evidence of positive impact on GDP growth,
employment creation, and increased labor productivity;
• Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development
(2004) plays a role in IS measurement including
measuring the Impact of ICT
• Research is ongoing; Task Group on Impact
(2007), led by OECD with ESCWA as a member.
The Role of ESCWA
• Plays an active role on all matters related to IS
and ICT measurement including capacity
building (national, regional, and international
levels)
• Contributes to the work of the Partnership and
collaborates with ITU, UNCTAD, AITRS, MCIT
on research and projects;
• Dedicates a track in its work plan on
Measurement and Impact of ICT (Studies,
EGM, Workshop) from 2009 until 2015.
Our Latest and Future Work
• Impact of ICT on Community Development in ESCWA
Member Countries” (Pub. 2009);
• Building a Common Benchmarking Model for the
ESCWA Region (Pub. 2010);
• EGM on Standardizing Information Society
Measurements in the ESCWA Region (2011);
• Awareness workshop on Standardizing Information
Society Measurement Models (2011);
• Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socioeconomic Development (Pub. end of 2012);
• EGM on the role of ICT in socio-economic
development (2013);
• Impact of ICT on Arab youth (2013).
Methodologies of Impact Assessment
Methodologies Strengths (+)
Analytical
techniques
• Objectivity
• Use of a existing data
Statistical
Surveys
• Reliability of output
• Perception questions
provide data on causal
links
Case Studies
Offers a wide range of
approaches and data
sources
Panel Studies Can provide good baseline
data and account for time
lags
Weaknesses (-)
• Model assumptions
• Reliability and
availability of input
data
• Expensive, require
time
• Perception
questions lack
objectivity
Flexibility of scope but
findings not
generalisable.
Expensive and may
suffer from unit
attrition over time.
Notes
Can be performed
at the macro,
sectoral, and microeconomic levels
Can be a direct
source of data on
ICT impacts
source of much of
the data on ICT
impacts
longitudinal data,
may be surveybased
Source: UNCTAD, Measuring the Impacts of Information and Communication Technology for Development, 2011
Considerations Related to Methodology
• Timeline: most economic changes take significant
amounts of time. Statistical studies correlating
access to ICTs with GDP growth have only been
possible through the use of longitudinal studies;
• Subjective Indicators: it has been argued that
without subjective indicators, impact
measurement are bound to be inadequate;
• Baseline: (something to measure against)
baselining will greatly empower analysts to
understand the impact;
ICT impact assessment is better understood if it considers
the perspectives of target groups.
Upcoming Research/Study
Impact of ICT and selected
e-Services on socio-economic
development (end 2012)
Objective of the Study
• Allows countries in the region to assess and
measure and the impact of selected e-services on
social and economic development in terms of:
 improved efficiency and productivity;
 effectiveness of government processes,
reducing costs and optimizing resources;
• Policy makers: e-Services that should be
prioritized for maximum impact on socio-economic
development.
Why E-Services?
• WSIS Geneva PoA, action line “C7”, stresses that
ICT applications (e-Services) can support
sustainable development;
• Benefits of Streaming ICTs in traditional services:
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Improves efficiency;
Saves time and effort;
Speeds up processing;
Promotes better participation;
Enhances transparency;
Facilitates access to governmental services and public
information.
Impact of E-Services
• Measuring impact of e-services is contextual
and not easily quantifiable;
• Most e-services projects in the region has
focused on ICT implementation side, vs.
understanding the impact on
citizens/targeted communities;
• Existing data indicates intriguing research
questions on ICT impact.
Proposed Study Methodology
• Combination of 3 methodologies: Analytical
techniques, Statistical Surveys, Case Studies;
1. Analysis and synthesis;
2. Case study research: Drawing upon research
from the International Communities and the
ESCWA member countries, illustrative case
studies will be examined for lessons learned;
3. Statistical surveys: Utilizing online data collection
mechanisms, representative sampling and
extrapolative modeling will be undertaken.
Practical Examples
• Analyze changes in relation to one another
to find relationships/associations;
• Identify changes in pattern, and shifts in
trend;
• Explain trends in relation to
policy/environment changes for
country/region;
HDI as a Socio-Economic Indicator
HDI Index – ESCWA member countries
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Will analyse countries in top, lower and mid-tier to give a generic overview
HDI– ESCWA member countries
• Covering GCC, Levant and LDCs
• Mid-tier - Oman part of GCC hence we will look at Jordan for this example
• Lower tier – Sudan lack of data hence we will look at Yemen
(United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Yemen)
HDI vs. Broadband
HDI Index vs broadband subscriptions (per 100)
Source:
HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles
Broadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Broadband
HDI Index vs. broadband subscriptions (per 100)
Impact/trend**
related shift in trend
Source:
HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles
Broadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Internet
HDI Index vs. Internet users (per 100)
Source:
HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles
Internet users (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Internet
HDI Index vs Internet users (per 100)
** Impact/trend**
To investigate further
Source:
HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles
Internet users (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs Mobile
HDI Index vs mobile subscriptions (per 100)
Source:
HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles
Mobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Mobile
HDI Index vs. mobile subscriptions (per 100)
** Impact/trend**
Largely linear correlation and sudden
change, perhaps policy related?
Source:
HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles
Mobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
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Relationships and Associations
HDI is a composite indicator.
Correlation in HDI implies correlation in a sub index which makes up HDI
i.e.
Health
Education
Living standards
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Other composite indicators can be examined in order to determine
further research and the direction of our study.
Trend analysis and projections
Taking the example of UAE mobile subscriptions (per 100)…
And expanding to include other years. We can:
• Try to explain the anomaly between 2009-2010 - for
mobile subscriptions through wider policy/environmental
changes;
• Or try to predict projections - i.e. estimated mobile rate for
2011 based on an established trend or previously
established relationship with baseline indicator (if any).
e.g.
e.g.
Other Examples – Civil Society
Tip of the iceberg…
• Indicators in comparison to registered Civil Society
Organizations (CSO)
• Using Jordan (considered average in terms of maturity)
• Compared against the regional average for registered CSO
Initial trends
can be seen
Source: UNDESA – csonet.org
Other Examples…
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e-Services;
Labor Market;
Education;
Skills/Graduates;
Migration;
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
Technology Transfer;
Research & Development;
Patent Registration;
Other social indicators;
Other economic indicators;
Conclusions
Findings present some interesting results, however:
• Further investigation is required to find deeper
correlations;
• Sample data used as an example;
• Comparison between more indicators needed;
• Timeframe of indicators should be expanded to
look at longer periods;
• Trends, shifts and changes must be mapped
against wider changes i.e. policy, regional etc;
• Lack of sufficient data for the region should be
remedied.
Thank you
[email protected]
www.escwa.un.org