.. . .. . .. . .. . SLIDES BY John Loucks St. Edward’s University © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 1 Chapter 20 Index Numbers Price Relatives Aggregate Price Indexes Computing an Aggregate Price Index from Price Relatives Some Important Price Indexes Deflating a Series by Price Indexes Price Indexes: Other Considerations Quantity Indexes © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 2 Price Relatives Price relatives are helpful in understanding and interpreting changing economic and business conditions over time. A price relative shows how the current price per unit for a given item compares to a base period price per unit for the same item. A price relative expresses the unit price in each period as a percentage of the unit price in the base period. A base period is a given starting point in time. Price in period t Price relative in period t = ( 100) Base period price © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 3 Price Relatives Example: Besco Products The prices Besco paid for newspaper and television ads in 2001 and 2011 are shown below. Using 2001 as the base year, compute a 2011 price index for newspaper and television ad prices. Newspaper Television 2001 2011 $14,794 11,469 $29,412 23,904 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 4 Price Relatives Newspaper I 2011 29, 412 (100) 199 14,794 Television I 2011 23,904 (100) 208 11, 469 Television advertising cost increased at a greater rate. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 5 Aggregate Price Indexes An aggregate price index is developed for the specific purpose of measuring the combined change of a group of items. An unweighted aggregate price index in period t, denoted by It , is given by Pit It ( 100) Pi 0 where Pit = unit price for item i in period t Pi 0 = unit price for item i in the base period © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 6 Aggregate Price Indexes With a weighted aggregate index each item in the group is weighted according to its importance, which typically is the quantity of usage. Letting Qi = quantity for item i, the weighted aggregate price index in period t is given by Pit Q i It ( 100) Pi 0 Q i where the sums are over all items in the group © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 7 Aggregate Price Indexes When the fixed quantity weights are determined from the base-year usage, the index is called a Laspeyres index. When the weights are based on period t usage, the index is a Paasche index. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 8 Aggregate Price Indexes Example: City of Rockdale Data on energy consumption and expenditures by sector for the city of Rockdale are given on the next slide. Construct an aggregate price index for energy expenditures in 2011 using 1990 as the base year. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 9 Aggregate Price Indexes Example: City of Rockdale Sector Residential Commercial Industrial Transport. Quantity (BTU) Unit Price ($/BTU) 1990 2011 1990 2011 9,473 8,804 $2.12 $10.92 5,416 6,015 1.97 11.32 21,287 17,832 .79 5.13 15,293 20,262 2.32 6.16 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 10 Aggregate Price Indexes Example: City of Rockdale Unweighted Aggregate Price Index 10.92 11.32 5.13 6.16 I 2011 (100) 466 2.12 1.97 .79 2.32 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 11 Aggregate Price Indexes Example: City of Rockdale Weighted Aggregate Index (Laspeyres Method) 10.92(9, 473) 6.16(15, 293) I 2011 (100) 443 2.12(9, 473) 2.32(15, 293) Weighted Aggregate Index (Paasche Method) 10.92(8,804) 6.16(20, 262) I 2011 (100) 415 2.12(8,804) 2.32(20, 262) The Paasche value being less than the Laspeyres indicates usage has increased faster in the lower-priced sectors. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 12 Aggregate Price Indexes Example: Annual Cost of Lawn Care Dina Evers is pleased with her lovely lawn, but she is concern about the increasing cost of maintaining it. The cost includes mowing, fertilizing, watering, and more. Dina wants an index that measures the change in the overall cost of her lawn care. Price and quantity data for her annual lawn expenses are listed on the next slide. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 13 Aggregate Price Indexes Example: Annual Cost of Lawn Care Quantity Item (Units) Mowing 32 Leaf Removal 3 Watering (1000s gal.) 40 Fertilizing 2 Sprinkler Repair 1 Unit Price ($) 2007 2011 57.00 79.00 56.00 71.00 1.83 2.78 56.00 67.00 109.00 128.00 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 14 Aggregate Price Indexes Unweighted Unweighted aggregate price index in period t is: It P P it (100) i0 where: Pit = unit price for item i in period t Pi0 = unit price for item i in the base period A 24% increase in annual lawn care expenses 79.00 71.00 2.78 67.00 128.00 I 2011 (100) 124 57.00 56.00 1.83 56.00 109.00 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 15 Aggregate Price Indexes Weighted (Fixed Quantity) Weighted aggregate price index in period t is: It PQ (100) P Q it i i0 i where: Qi = quantity for item i I 2011 Note that Qi does not have a second subscript for a time period. 79.00(32) 71.00(3) 2.78( 40) 67.00(2) 128.00(1) (100) 136 57.00(32) 56.00(3) 1.83( 40) 56.00(2) 109.00(1) A 36% increase in annual lawn care expenses © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 16 Aggregate Price Indexes Weighted (Base-Period Quantity) Special case of the fixed quantity index Pit Qi 0 Laspeyres It (100) Index Pi 0Qi 0 More widely used than the Paasche index Weighted (Period t Quantity) A variablequantity index Paasche Index It PQ P Q it it i0 it (100) Pro: Reflects current usage; Con: Weights require continual updating © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 17 Aggregate Price Indexes Item i Mowing Leaf Removal Water (1000s gal.) Fertilizing Sprinkler Repair Unit Price ($) 2007 2011 Pi0 Pit 57.00 56.00 1.83 56.00 109.00 79.00 71.00 2.78 67.00 128.00 Price Relative (Pit/Pi0)100 138.6 126.8 151.9 119.6 117.4 79 (100) 57 The 5-year increases in unit price ranged from a low of 17.4% for sprinkler repair to a high of 51.9% for water. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 18 Aggregate Price Indexes Item Mowing Leaves Water Fertilize Sprinkler Price Base Weighted Relative Price ($) Quantity Weight Price Relative Pi0 Qi wi = Pi0Qi (Pit/Pi0)(100)wi (Pit/Pi0)100 138.6 126.8 151.9 119.6 117.4 57.00 56.00 1.83 56.00 109.00 32 3 40 2 1 1,824.0 168.0 73.2 112.0 109.0 252,806.40 21,302.40 11,119.08 13,395.20 12,796.60 Pit Total 2,286.2 311,419.68 ( 100 ) w P i 311, 419.68 i0 This value is the same as the It 136 2, 286.2 one identified by the weighted wi aggregate index computation. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 19 Some Important Price Indexes Consumer Price Index (CPI) • Primary measure of the cost of living in U.S. • Based on 400 items including food, housing, clothing, transportation, and medical items. • Weighted aggregate price index with fixed weights derived from a usage survey. • Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Its base period is 1982-1984 with an index of 100. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 20 Some Important Price Indexes Consumer Price Index (CPI) Base 1982-1984 = 100.0 Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 CPI 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 CPI 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 CPI 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI 188.9 195.3 201.6 207.3 215.3 214.5 218.1 224.9 Note: For 1982 – 1984, (96.5 + 99.6 + 103.9)/3 = 100.0 Also note: CPI for 2009 was lower than CPI for 2008. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 21 Some Important Price Indexes Producer Price Index (PPI) • Measures the monthly changes in prices in primary markets in the U.S. • Used as a leading indicator of the future trend of consumer prices and the cost of living. • Covers raw, manufactured, and processed goods at each level of processing. • • Includes the output of manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, gas and electricity, and public utilities. Is a weighted average of price relatives using the Laspeyres method. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 22 Some Important Price Indexes Dow Jones Averages • Indexes designed to show price trends and movements on the New York Stock Exchange. • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is based on common stock prices of 30 industrial firms. • The DJIA is not expressed as a percentage of baseyear prices. • Another average is computed for 20 transportation stocks, and another for 15 utility stocks. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 23 Some Important Price Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 30 Companies 3M Alcoa DuPont ExxonMobil McDonald's American Express General Electric Microsoft At&T Hewlett-Packard Pfizer Bank of America Home Depot Procter & Gamble Boeing IBM Travelers Caterpillar Intel United Technologies Chevron Corp. Johnson & Johnson Verizon Cisco Systems J.P.Morgan Chase Wal-Mart Stores Coca-Cola Kraft Foods Walt Disney Merck As of 09/2012 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 24 Deflating a Series by Price Indexes In order to correctly interpret business activity over time when it is expressed in dollar amounts, we should adjust the data for the price-increase effect. Removing the price-increase effect from a time series is called deflating the series. Deflating actual hourly wages results in real wages or the purchasing power of wages. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 25 Deflating a Series by Price Indexes Example: McNeer Cleaners McNeer Cleaners, with 46 branch locations, has had the total sales revenues shown on the next slide for the last five years. Deflate the sales revenue figures on the basis of 1982-1984 constant dollars. Is the increase in sales due entirely to the price-increase effect? © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 26 Deflating a Series by Price Indexes Example: McNeer Cleaners Year Total Sales ($1000) CPI 2007 2008 2009 2010 8,446 9,062 9,830 10,724 207.3 215.3 214.5 218.1 2011 11,690 224.9 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 27 Deflating a Series by Price Indexes Adjusting Revenue For the Price-Increase Effect Year Deflated Sales ($1000) Annual Change (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (8,446/207.3)(100) = 4,074 (9,062/215.3)(100) = 4,209 (9,830/214.5)(100) = 4,583 (10,724/218.1)(100) = 4,917 (11,690/224.9)(100) = 5,198 +3.3 +8.9 +7.3 +5.7 After adjusting, revenue is still increasing at an average rate of 6.3% per year. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 28 Real Sales Revenue ($1000s) Deflating a Series by Price Indexes 5500 5198 5250 5000 4583 4750 4500 A real sales increase of 27.6% from 2007 to 2011 4917 4209 4074 4250 2007 2008 2009 Year 2010 2011 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 29 Price Indexes: Other Considerations Selection of Items When the class of items is very large, a representative group (usually not a random sample) must be used. The group of items in the aggregate index must be periodically reviewed and revised if it is not representative of the class of items in mind. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 30 Price Indexes: Other Considerations Selection of a Base Period As a rule, the base period should not be too far from the current period. For example, a CPI with a 1945 base period would be difficult for most individuals to understand, due to unfamiliarity with conditions in 1945. The CPI’s base period The base period for most indexes is was changed adjusted periodically to a more recent to 1982-84 period of time. in 1988. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 31 Price Indexes: Other Considerations Quality Changes A basic assumption of a price index is that prices over time are identified for the same item. Is a product that has undergone a major quality change the same product it was? An increase in an item’s quality may or may not result in a price increase . . . and a decrease in quality may or may not result in a price decrease. © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 32 Quantity Indexes An index used to measure changes in quantity levels over time is called a quantity index. A quantity relative shows how the current quantity level for a single item compares to a base period quantity level for the same item. A weighted aggregate quantity index is computed in much the same way as a weighted aggregate price index. Q it w i It (100) Qi0 w i © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 33 Quantity Indexes Example: Appliance Mart Appliance Mart reports the 2002 and 2011 sales for three major kitchen appliances as shown below. Compute quantity relatives and use them to develop a weighted aggregate quantity index for 2011. Kitchen Appliance Dishwasher Range Refrigerator Sales Price Sales (Units) 2002 2011 (2002) $325 $450 $710 720 540 980 950 610 1110 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 34 Quantity Indexes Quantity in period t Quantity relative in period t = (100) Base period quantity Kitchen Appliance Sales (Units) 2002 2011 Dishwasher Range Refrigerator 720 540 980 950 610 1110 Quantity Relative (950/720)100 = 131.9 (610/540)100 = 113.0 (1110/980)100 = 113.3 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 35 Quantity Indexes Unweighted Unweighted aggregate quantity index in period t is: It Q Q it (100) i0 where: Qit = quantity for item i in period t Qi0 = quantity for item i in the base period I 2011 950 610 1110 (100) 119 720 540 980 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 36 Quantity Indexes Weighted (Base-Period Price) Weighted aggregate quantity index in period t is: It QP Q P it i 0 (100) i0 i0 where: Pi 0 = price for item i in the base period 950(325) 610( 450) 1110(710) I 2011 (100) 117 720(325) 540( 450) 980(710) © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 37 Quantity Indexes Weighted (Fixed Price) It Q P (100) Q P it i i0 i Note that Pi does not have a second subscript for a time period. Weighted (Period t Price) It Q P Q P it it (100) i 0 it © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 38 End of Chapter 17 © 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 39
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