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Overview
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien
Former GEA Director
Global Energy Assessment
Toward a Sustainable Future
Nebojsa IIASA
Nakicenovic
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Director
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org 2012
Nakicenovic
#2
GEA Launch RIO+20, 19 June 2012
Kandeh Yumkella, DG UNIDO, referred
to the GEA report as the “energy bible”.
Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto
Nakicenovic
2013 #3
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Nakicenovic
GEA, 2012
2013 #4
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers
> 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years
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# of Reviewer comments: >6000
# of Language Editors:15
# of Copy Editors:15
# of Figures: ~ 650
# of Tables: ~ 380
# of References: >7000
● # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages
● Single volume of 5.5 kg
Nakicenovic
2013 #5
External Funding Partners
● Austrian Development Agency (ADA)
● Climate Works Foundation
● Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GmbH
● First Solar Inc.
● Global Environment Facility (GEF)
through UNIDO
● Italian Ministry for the Environment
and Territory
● Petrobras
● Research Council of Norway
● Swedish Research Council for
Environment, Agricultural Sciences
and Spatial Planning (FORMAS)
● Swedish Research Council for
Environment, Agricultural Sciences
and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) and
Nakicenovic
Swedish Energy Agency
● United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP)
● United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)
● United Nations Foundation (UNF)
● United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO)
● US Environmental Protection Agency
(US EPA)
● US Department of Energy (DOE)
through Global Environment and
Technology Foundation
● World Bank/ESMAP
● World Energy Council (WEC)
2013 #6
GEA Council
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Ged Davis – GEA Co-President
José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo
Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.
Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory
Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)
Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China
Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)
Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria
Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency
Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras
Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development
(IRADe)
Jamal Saghir, World Bank
John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science
(ICSU)
Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (UNDESA)
Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament
Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the
University of East Anglia
Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament
Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation
Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China
Nakicenovic
2013 #7
GEA Council
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Ged Davis – GEA Co-President
José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo
Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.
Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory
Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)
Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China
Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)
Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria
Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency
Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras
Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development
(IRADe)
Jamal Saghir, World Bank
John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science
(ICSU)
Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (UNDESA)
Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament
Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the
University of East Anglia
Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament
Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation
Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China
Nakicenovic
2013 #8
GEA Executive Committee
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Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden
Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India
Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria
Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia
Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)
Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)
He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)
Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)
Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)
Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)
Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)
Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)
Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)
Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)
Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)
Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)
Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)
Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)
Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)
Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems)
Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)
Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)
Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)
Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)
Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)
Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)
Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)
Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)
Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)
Nakicenovic
2013 #9
GEA Executive Committee
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Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden
Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India
Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria
Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia
Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)
Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)
He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)
Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)
Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)
Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)
Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)
Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)
Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)
Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)
Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)
Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)
Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)
Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)
Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)
Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems)
Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)
Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)
Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)
Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)
Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)
Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)
Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)
Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)
Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)
Nakicenovic
2013 #10
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Remembrance:
Abeeku Brew-Hammond
Co-CLA of Chapter 19
Energy Access for
Development
http://www.christianmemorials.com/tributes/
Abeeku-Hammond
Nakicenovic
2013 #11
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Nakicenovic
2013 #12
Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2)
Jean Acquatella
Adeola Adenikinju
Lawrence Agbemabiese
Olivia Agbenyega
Astrid Agostini
Francisco Aguayo
Roberto F. Aguilera
Gilbert Ahamer
John Ahearne
Hugo Altomonte
Markus Amann
Laura Diaz Anadon
Per Dannemand Andersen
Cristina L. Archer
Doug Arent
Robert Ayres
Christian Azar
Ines Azevedo
Xuemei Bai
Kalpana Balakrishnan
Rangan Banerjee
Douglas F. Barnes
Jennie Barron
Igor Bashmakov
Timothy Baynes
Morgan Bazilian
Kamel Bennaceur
Sally M. Benson
Ruggero Bertani
S.C. Bhattacharya
Dan Bilello
Gunilla Björklund
Brenda Boardman
Daniel H. Bouille
Grant Boyle
Sylvia Breukers
Abeeku Brew-Hammond
Ian Bryden
Thomas Buettner
Stan Bull
Matthew Bunn
Colin Butler
Nakicenovic
Zoë Chafe
Aleh Cherp
Helena Chum
Leon Clarke
Suani T. Coelho
Yu Cong
Peter Cook
Robert Corell
Felix Creutzig
Daniel Curtis
Touria Dafrallah
Ogunlade Davidson
John Davison
Felix Dayo
Heleen de Coninck
Luiz Alberto de Melo Brettas
Adilson de Oliveira
Gabriel de Scheemaker
Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr.
Frank Dentener
Shobhakar Dhakal
Anatoli Diakov
Ming DING
Michael Doherty
Anne-Maree Dowd
Carolina Dubeux
Maurice B. Dusseault
Lisa Emberson
Karl-Heinz Erb
Nick Eyre
Andre Faaij
Ian Fairlie
Karim Farhat
Sara Feresu
Maria Josefina Figueroa
Carolyn Fischer
Brian Fisher
David J. Fisk
Theo H. Fleisch
Tira Foran
Roger Fouquet
Junichi Fujino
Sabine Fuss
Luc Gagnon
Kelly Gallagher
Hu Gao
Ibrahim Abdel Gelil
Dolf Gielen
Asmerom Gilau
Stephen Gitonga
Robert Goldston
Andreas Goldthau
Peter Graham
Arnulf Grubler
Helmut Haberl
Richard Haeuber
Keisuke Hanaki
Maureen Hand
Danny Harvey
Marianne Haug
Kebin HE
Marko Hekkert
Fancisco Hernandez
Sergio Tirado Herrero
Edgar Hertwich
Conrado Heruela
Kevin Hicks
Frank von Hippel
Monique Hoogwijk
Richard Hosier
Larry Hughes
Alison Hughes
Jane Hupe
Toshiaki Ichinose
Morna Isaac
Mark Jaccard
Staffan Jacobsson
Jill Jäger
Martin Jakob
Kathryn Janda
Gilberto Jannuzzi
Jaap Jansen
Jessica Jewell
Yi Jiang
Kejun Jiang
Eberhard Jochem
Thomas B. Johansson
Francis X. Johnson
Arthur Johnson
Ian Johnson
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro
Mikiko Kainuma
Daniel Kammen
Shinji Kaneko
Stephen Karekezi
Anders Karlqvist
Tadahiro Katsuta
James E. Keirstead
Francis Kemausuor
René Kemp
Ruud Kempener
John Kimani
Osamu Kimura
Patrick Kinney
Bernadette Kiss
Tord Kjellstrom
Zbigniew Klimont
Shigeki Kobayashi
Peter Kolp
Christian Kornevall
Reza Kowsari
Diana Kraft
Fridolin Krausmann
Wolfram Krewitt†
Volker Krey
Sivanappan Kumar
Rattan Lal
Hans Larsen
Eric Larson
Rik Leemans
Sylvie Lemmet
Philippe Lempp
Manfred Lenzen
Zheng LI
2013 #13
Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)
Vladimir Likhachev
Guangjian LIU
Jeff Logan
Oswaldo Lucon
John Lund
Nora Lustig
Jordan Macknick
Mili Majumdar
François Maréchal
Omar Masera
Denise L. Mauzerall
Peter McCabe
David McCollum
Charles McCombie
Susan McDade
Aimee T. McKane
Thomas McKone
James E. McMahon
Anthony McMichael
Michael McNeil
Mark Mehos
Tim Merrigan
Jacqui Meyers
Alan Miller
Sevastianos Mirasgedis
Catherine Mitchell
Vijay Modi
Joachim Monkelbaan
José Roberto Moreira
Gragner Morgan
Siwa Msangi
Adrian Muller
Mohan Munasinghe
Luis Mundaca
Shuzo Murakami
Iyngararasan Mylvakanam
Lynn Mytelka
Yu Nagai
Koji Nagano
Hitomi Nakanishi
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Lena Neij
Nakicenovic
Gregory Nemet
George L. Nicolaides
Hans Nilsson
Aleksandra Novikova
Victoria Novikova
Anastasia O’Rourke
Virginia Sonntag O'Brien
Michael Ohadi
Marina Olshanskaya
Shonali Pachauri
Saptarshi Pal
Shamik Pal
Debajit Palit
Riddhi Panse
Mahesh Patankar
Anand Patwardhan
Ksenia Petrichenko
Hector Pistonesi
Christoph Plutzar
Gisela Prasad
Ndola Prata
Lynn Price
Pallav Purohit
Krishnan S. Rajan
M.V. Ramana
Andrea Ramirez
Saumya Ranjan
Anand Rao
Shilpa Rao
Amitav Rath
Rob Raven
Xiangkun Ren
Keywan Riahi
Kamal Rijal
Johan Rockström
Hans-Holger Rogner
Mathis L. Rogner
Marc A. Rosen
Carolina Rossini
Joyashree Roy
Lau Saili
Constantine Samaras
Gerd Sammer
Jayant Sathaye
David Satterthwaite
Deger Saygin
Jules Schers
Christoph Schilling
Jürgen Schmid
Mycle Schneider
Sabine Schnittger
Robert N. Schock
Niels B. Schulz
Seongwon Seo
Ali Shafiei
Nilay Shah
Ram M. Shrestha
Priyadarshi R. Shukla
Dale Simbeck
Ralph Sims
Wim Sinke
Kirk R. Smith
Aaron Smith
Adrian Smith
Ricardo Soares de Oliveira
Youba Sokona
Weiwei Song
Benjamin Sovacool
Ashutosh Srivastava
Leena Srivastava
Kjartan Steen-Olsen
Julia Steinberger
Lars Strupeit
Terry Surles
Tatsujiro Suzuki
Alice Sverdlik
Minoru Takada
Richard Taylor
Theodore Thrasher
Robert Thresher
Julie Tran
Upendra Tripathy
Craig Turchi
Wim Turkenburg
Neha Umarji
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
Eric Usher
Sergey Vakulenko
Harry Vallack
Rita van Dingenen
Denis van Es
Bas van Ruijven
Wilfried van Sark
Oscar van Vliet
Detlef P. van Vuuren
Geert Verbong
Preeti Verma
David Victor
Eugene Visagie
Seppo Vuori
Horst Wagner
Rahul Walawalkar
Njeri Wamukonya†
Jim Watson
Sandy Webb
Jan Weinzettel
Helga Weisz
John Weyant
John T. Wilbanks
Paul Wilkinson
Robert H. Williams
Charlie Wilson
Rosemary Wolson
Ernst Worrell
Iain Wright
Vladimir Yakushev
Kenji Yamaji
Kurt Yeager
Suyuan Yu
Hisham Zerriffi
Qiang Zhang
Xiliang Zhang
Li Zhou
Ji Zou
2013 #14
Reviewers of GEA
Dilip Ahuja
Anas Alhajji
Maria Argiri
Vicki Arroyo
Alan Atkisson
Patil Balachandra
Fritz Barthel
David F. Batten
Frans Berkhout
Christoph Bertram
Preety Bhandari
Kornelis Blok
Valentina Bosetti
Richard A. Bradley
Elizabeth Cecelski
Akanksha Chaurey
Francisco de la Chesnaye
Nikhil Desai
Hadi Dowlatabadi
Olivier Dubois
Gautam S. Dutt
Geoff Dutton
James A. Edmonds
Wolfgang Eichhammer
Per Eikeland
Paul Epstein†
Marianne Fay
Peter Fraenkel
Antony Froggatt
Bill Fulkerson
Donald Gautier
Bradford Gentry
John Gibbons
Michael W. Golay
Donna L. Goodman
Charles Goodman
Paul Graham
David L. Greene
Don Grether
Andrei Gritsevskyii
Waclaw Gudowski
Eshita Gupta
Pablo Gutman
Javier Hanna
Nakicenovic
John Bøgild Hansen
Nikos Hatziargyriou
Marianne Haug
Peter Haugan
Detlev Heinemann
Peter Hennicke
Vera Höfele
Adonai Herrera Martinez
Mark Hopkins
Luiz Horta Noqueira
Chuck Howard
Ernst Huenges
Steven Hunt
Hillard Huntington
Antonina Ivanova Boncheva
Roderick Jackson
Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau
Michael Jefferson
Catrinus Jepma
Hongguang Jin
Veena Joshi
James R. Katzer
Gregory Keoleian
Emek Barış Kepenek
Ilkka Keppo
Anund Killingtveit
Jong-Inn Kim
Jonathan G. Koomey
Sivanappan Kumar
Balesh Kumar
Vello Kuuskraa
Anthony Land
Melissa Lapsa
Louis Lebel
Stefan Lechtenböhmer
Nicolas Lefèvre-Marton
Vladimir Likhachev
David Lobell
Alexander Luedi
Nestor Luna Gonzalez
Landis MacKellar
Alexei A. Makarov
Maxwell Mapako
Anil Markandya
Gregg Marland
Ajay Mathur
Helio Mattar
Doug McKay
James Meadowcroft
Tatyana Mitrova
Arild Moe
Mark R. Montgomery
Shantanu Mukherjee
Peter Mulder
Svend Munkejord
Rogier Nijssen
Lars Nilsson
Dong-Woon Noh
Tor Nygaard
Joan Ogden
Dennis S. Ojima
Debo Oladosu
Ralph P. Overend
Tony Owen
Karen Palmer
Martin K. Patel
Rashmi S. Patil
Walt Patterson
Martin Pehnt
Joachim Peinke
Per F. Peterson
Cédric Philibert
Gonzalo Piernavieja Izquierdo
Robert Pindyck
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa
Lawrence Pitt
Maximilian Posch
Graham Pugh
Tinus Pulles
Burton Richter
Michael Rock
Richard Alexander Roehrl
Adam Rose
Mark Rosenberg
Teodoro Sanchez
Ajit Sapre
Guido Schmidt-Traub
Jan Sendzimir
Karen Seto
Evgeny Shvarts
Toufiq Siddiqi
Jim Skea
Ruud Smits
Robert Socolow
Luc Soete
Allen Solomon
Mohammad Soltanieh
Laszlo Somlyody
Ashok Sreenivas
Will Steffen
Andrew Stirling
Harry C. Stokes
Gary Stuggins
Salvador Suárez García
Yoshiharu Tachibana
Anil Terway
Jefferson Tester
Thomas Theison
Stefan Thomas
Victoria Thoresen
Dennis Tirpak
Michael Toman
David Trimm†
Anthony Turhollow
Hal Turton
Julio Usaola Garcia
Bob van der Zwaan
Thyjagarajan Velumail
Ivan Vera
Fernando Viana
Nadejda M. Victor
Spyros Voutsinas
Steve Wiel
Thomas J. Wilbanks
Robert Williams
Harald Winkler
Anny Wong
Francis D. Yamba
Xianli Zhu
Reviewer 49
Reviewer 93 Reviewer 118
Reviewer 172
2013 #15
Four Clusters
● Cluster I
Characterized nature and magnitude of the major
challenges of our century – e.g. poverty eradication, climate
change, health, air pollution, energy security.
● Cluster II Reviewed existing and future resources, technology
options and energy end use in sectors
● Cluster III Integrated elements of Cluster II into systems and
contrasted them to challenges in Cluster I
Using Scenarios, numerical models and storylines, explored
integrated solutions
● Cluster IV Assessed policy options, and specifically identified
policy packages that could meet needs linked to scenarios
Message: current energy systems require major transformation
through integrated and cross-sectoral approaches involving multiple
stakeholders
Nakicenovic
2013 #16
The Global Energy Challenge
Major transformations are required if future energy
systems are to be affordable, safe, secure, and
environmentally sound. There is an urgent need for a
sustained and comprehensive strategy to help resolve
the following challenges:
 Providing clean and affordable energy services for all;
 Increasing energy security for all nations, regions, and
communities;
 Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to
less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels;
 Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel
combustion and its impacts on human health; and
 Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks.
Nakicenovic
2013 #17
The Key Energy Challenges
Climate Change
Energy
Security
Energy
Access
Air Pollution
Health Impacts
#18
2030 Energy Goal
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
Transforming the global energy systems to
address urgent challenges of the 21st
century
Energy cuts across sustainable
development issues
Pursuing three objectives simultaneously bring about immense benefits –
Opportunity for UN to Test New Models of Cooperation
Achieving the three
objectives of
Ensuring universal
Sustainable Energy
Energy Access
for All…
… makes many
▪
development goals
possible
▪
....it is not just about ▪
power stations,
▪
transformers and
distribution lines
▪
(though critical and
important)
21
Improved health
Improved agricultural
productivity
Empowerment of
women
Business and
employment creation
Economic development
and equity
Achievement of the
Millennium
Development Goals
Doubling the share Doubling the rate of
of Renewable Energy improvement in
Energy Efficiency
▪ Affordable energy even ▪ Lighting / appliances that
▪
▪
▪
▪
where grid does not
reach
New opportunities for
small entrepreneurs
Decreased variability in
energy costs
Energy security and
reduced import bills
Reduced environmental
impacts
▪
▪
▪
▪
require less power
Fossil fuel resources used
more effectively
Reduced energy costs for
consumers
Redistribution of
electricity that now is
wasted or lost
More reliable electricity
systems
Country Action
Current Status
•
•
•
•
77 countries have now
formally joined – more in
pipeline - 5 in RBEC
region
40 Rapid Assessment
studies done or in process
– basis for next step –
action plan preparation
Several donors,
international institutions
and businesses already
committed
Implementation Phase to
begin in 2013 – now - for
a long term commitment
Europe & MiddleEast,
CIS, 5
1
Africa, 38
LAC, 19
Asia-Pacific,
16
KF6 Universal Access by 2030
Universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking fuels
and stoves can be achieved by 2030; this will require
innovative institutions, national and local enabling
mechanisms, and targeted policies, including
appropriate subsidies and financing.
 Enhancing access among poor people, especially poor
women, is essential for increasing standards of living;
 Universal access to clean cooking technologies will
substantially improve health, prevent millions of
premature deaths, and lower household and ambient
air pollution levels, as well as the emissions of climatealtering substances.
Nakicenovic
2013 #23
Electrification
100%
SE4All
total population with electricity access
Percentage of rural
80%
South Africa
Baseline
60%
USA
Brazil
Mexico
SE4All
China
40%
India
USA Rural
20%
South Asia
Baseline
Sub-Saharan Africa
0%
1900
Nakicenovic
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: Pachauri et al, 2012
2020
2040
2013 #24
~2450 GtCO2
Unconventional Gas
~4,550 GtCO2
N. Gas
~340–500
GtCO2
Oil
~660–1,000
GtCO2
Unconv. Oil
~1,100–1,500
GtCO2
Biomass
~1,600–
1,650
GtCO2
Cumulative
Emissions for 2oC
Stabilzaiton
Gas Hydrates
~100,000
Gas Hydrates
~850 GtCO
GtCO–2 57,000
~6,600
2
GtCO2
Coal
~ 30,000 GtCO2
Historcial
Emissions
~1900 GtCO2
Preidustrial
Atmosphere
~2000 GtCO2
Present
Atmosphere
~3060
GtCO2
#25
14
Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density
WEU: 21% of demand below
renewable density threshold
EEU: 34% of demand below
renewable density threshold
26
#26
KF1 Transformation
The GEA analysis demonstrates that a sustainable
future requires a transformation from today’s energy
systems to those with:
 Radical improvements in energy efficiency, especially
in end use
 Greater shares of renewable energies and advanced
energy systems with carbon capture and storage
 The analysis ascertained that there are many ways to
transform energy systems and many energy portfolio
options.
 Large, early, and sustained investments, combined
with supporting policies, are needed to implement and
finance change.
#27
Final Energy Transformations
Final energy share (percent%)
100%
80%
On-site generation
Grids
(gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen)
60%
40%
Liquids
(oil products, biofuels,
other liquids)
20%
0%
GEA-E
Solids
(coal, biomass)
GEA-S
#28
Global Primary Energy
1200
1000
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
800
Mikrochip
EJ
Kommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Nuklearenergie
600
Fernseher
400
200
Vakuumröhre
Ottomotor
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Dampf- Elektrischer
maschine Motor
Oil
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
#29
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200
1000
800
Einsparungen
Savings
Andere
E
Other renewables
Nuklear
Nuclear
Gas
Öl
Oil
Kohle
Coal
Biomasse
Biomass
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~55% renewables by 2030
EJ
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
600
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear
400
Gas
Oil
200
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2000
2050
#30
Global Primary Energy
lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
1200
1000
800
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
~30% renewables by 2030
EJ
Limited Intermittent REN
600
400
200
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear
Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
Gas
Limited Bioenergy
Bio-CCS – “negative CO2
Oil
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2000
2050
#31
Global Primary Energy
Sub-Saharan Africa
100
1200
800
80
60
EJ
1000
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
40
EJ
20
0
2000
600
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables
Nuclear
400 ~50% renewables by 2030
Gas
Oil
200
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2000
2050
#32
Global Primary Energy
China
250
1200
800
200
150
EJ
1000
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
100
EJ
50
0
2000
600
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables
Nuclear
400 ~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030
Gas
Oil
200
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2000
2050
#33
Global Primary Energy
North America
250
1200
800
200
150
EJ
1000
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
100
EJ
50
0
2000
600
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables
Nuclear
400 ~40% efficiency 2030
Gas
Oil
200
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
#34
KF2 Immediate Action
An effective transformation requires immediate action
to avoid lock-in of invested capital into energy systems
and associated infrastructure that is not compatible
with sustainability goals
 Long infrastructure lifetimes mean that it takes
decades to change energy systems
 For example, by 2050 almost three-quarters of the
world population is projected to live in cities offering a
major opportunity for transforming energy systems
Nakicenovic
2013 #35
Policy Integration at the Urban Scale
Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model
combining spatially explicit models of urban form, density, and energy
Source:
Grubler et al, 2012
Nakicenovic
2013 #36
infrastructures, with energy systems optimization.
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Nakicenovic
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
2013 #37
KF10 Stable Investment Regimes
A portfolio of policies to enable rapid transformation of
energy systems must provide the effective incentive
structures and strong signals for the deployment at
scale of energy-efficient technologies and systems that
contribute to the sustainable development.
 The GEA pathways indicate that global investments in
combined energy efficiency and supply will need to
increase to between US$1.7–2.2 trillion per year
compared to present levels of about US$1.3 trillion per
year;
 Current research and development efforts in these
areas are grossly inadequate compared with the future
potentials and needs.
Nakicenovic
2013 #38
Investitionen der Entwicklungspfade
Innovation
RD&D
Markets
Formation
Present
Investments
Future
Investments
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
2010
2010
2010
2010 - 2030
Efficiency
>> 8
~5
300
300-800
Renewables
> 12
~ 20
200
300-1000
<1
<1
~9
40-60
> 50
< 150
1250
1750–2200
Annual Energy
Investments
Access
Total
Nakicenovic
Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011
2013 #39
KF8 Multiple Benefits
Combinations of resources, technologies, and polices
that can simultaneously meet global sustainability goals
also generate substantial and tangible near-term local
and national economic, environmental, and social
development benefits.
 These include increased employment options, new
business opportunities, productivity gains, improved
social welfare and decreased poverty, more resilient
infrastructure, and improved energy security;
 These benefits make the required energy
transformations attractive from multiple policy
perspectives and at multiple levels of governance.
Nakicenovic
2013 #40