Repeat speeding offenders from an
Australian perspective
Dr Judy Fleiter
Road Safety Network:
CIHR Team inTransdisciplinary Studies in
DWI Onset, Persistence, Prevention and
Treatment, Douglas Mental Health University
Institute, Montreal
2 August 2012
CRICOS No. 00213J
Acknowledgements
 Co-researchers
– Barry Watson, Vic Siskind, Angela Watson
 Australian Research Council
– Department of Transport and Main Roads
– Queensland Police Service
– Office of Economic and Statistical Research
 National Health and Medical Research
Council Asia-Australia Postdoctoral Research
Fellowship
Overview
 Speeding and crash involvement in Australia
 Speeding recidivist research in Queensland
 Implications for future speed management
Australia
Australia = 22.8 million people
Queensland = 4.5 million people
Land area = 1.7 million km2
Driver’s licences = 3.1 million
Reg.vehicles = 4.3 million
Brisbane
Australian Road Deaths:
Improvements from 1970-2010
30.4 deaths/100,000 people
6.1 deaths/100,000 people
With a 2-fold increase in vehicles & 50% growth in population
Improvements in Road Safety in
Queensland since 1967
Speed management in Australia
 Strong reliance on traffic law enforcement programs:
− traffic laws (eg. speed limits)
− traffic policing (eg. speed cameras)
− sanctions (eg. fines, demerit points, licence loss)
Speeding enforcement in Queensland
 History:
– 1997:
– 2003:
– 2007:
– 2010:
– 2011:
Mobile speed cameras (highly visible, randomly
deployed around selected ‘crash’ sites)
Penalties for speeding substantially increased
Fixed ‘blackspot’ speed cameras and increase in
mobile speed camera sites
Covert speed cameras introduced
Point-to-point (average) speed cameras operational
on 1 section of highway north of Brisbane
 Policing supported by mass-media education
 Evaluations of mobile speed cameras indicate:
− 34% reduction in fatal crashes within 2km of sites
− 42% reduction in serious casualty crashes within 2km
Newstead, 2006; Cameron, 2008; Carnis, Rakotonirainy & Fleiter, 2008
Focus of Traffic Policing
• The Fatal 4
– Speeding
– Drink driving
– Fatigue – driving while tired
– Non-use of Seatbelts
Percentage of fatalities involving speeding
drivers/riders in Queensland: 12 months ending
January 2006 -2011
30
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year
2010
2011
Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, 2011
CRICOS No. 00213J
Percentage of speeding infringements per
penalty category, Queensland
60
50.7
% of infringements
50
40
40.3
30
20
7.6
10
1
0.4
31-40
40+
0
< 13
13-20
21-30
Km/hour above the speed limit
Queensland Transport, 2008
Speeding offenders...
• Are they all the same?
• Does increasing penalties make any difference?
• What else do they do?
• What might best change their driving behaviour?
Background to recidivism
research project
 In April 2003, Queensland introduced changes to the
speeding penalty regime:
– Increased monetary fines
– Automatic licence suspension for high range speeding (for >40
km/h over the speed limit)
– Increased the number of offence bands/categories
 The stated rationale for this change was to deter speeding
behaviour
Speeding penalty changes
Speeding offences and penalties in Qld prior to 17 April, 2003
Offence
Fine
Demerit Points
<15 km/hr over speed limit
$90
1
15-29 km/hr over speed limit
$135
3
30-44 km/hr over speed limit
$180
4
>44 km/hr over speed limit
$255
6
Speeding offences and penalties in Qld from 17 April, 2003
Offence
Fine
Demerit Points
<13 km/hr over speed limit
$100
1
13-20 km/hr over speed limit
$150
3
21-29 km/hr over speed limit
$250
4
30-40 km/hr over speed limit
$300
6
>40 km/hr over speed limit
$700
8 + 6 months suspension
The effectiveness of increases in
speeding penalties
 Limited international research into effectiveness of
different speeding penalties
 Increasing speeding penalties severity (in isolation) has
been found to produce very few impacts on behaviour in
Sweden (1982 & 1987) and Norway (1995-2004)
 Need to consider impact of speeding penalties in:
– deterring the general population from speeding (general
deterrence)
– reducing recidivism among offenders (specific deterrence)
Watson et al. 2010
Speeding recidivism research
 Our research aimed to:
 examine the specific deterrent impact of the
changes
 profile speeding offenders/recidivists
Method (1)
 Crash and offence data from 1996 to 2007
obtained for two cohorts of drivers:
 58,000 drivers convicted of speeding in May 2001
 53,000 drivers convicted of speeding in May 2003
 Data obtained included details of:
– index offence
– previous and subsequent traffic crashes and offences
– demographic characteristics
– licence type and class
Method (2)
 Final sample for current analyses excluded interstate
and international licence holders:
– 2001 pre-penalty change cohort (n = 46,681)
– 2003 post-penalty change cohort (n = 42,180)
 Speeding offence records for two years after the index
offence were examined
 Distinction between:
 Absolute specific deterrence – the total prevention of re-offending
 Marginal specific deterrence – a reduction in re-offending
Measures of recidivism
In the follow up period:
1. Proportion of all offenders detected re-offending
(Absolute specific deterrence)
2. Average number of offences (Absolute and
marginal specific deterrence)
3. Length of delay to re-offence among re-offenders
(Marginal specific deterrence)
4. Average number of re-offences among reoffenders (Marginal specific deterrence)
CRICOS No. 00213J
Overall impact of penalty change
Measure of recidivism
Hypotheses
Outcome
Overall proportion of re-offending Reduction in the proportion who rein the follow up period
offend after penalty change

Overall frequency of re-offending
in the follow up period

Length of delay to re-offence
among re-offenders
Average number of re-offences
committed by those who reoffended
Reduction in average number of
offences committed (overall) after
penalty change
Among those who re-offend, longer
delay to re-offence after penalty
change
Among those who re-offend,
reduction in the average number of
re-offences after penalty change


Watson et al. 2010
Potential influencing factors –
differential effects
1. Index offence severity
2. Offence history
1. Index Offence Severity
 Low-range offences: those from the
lowest offence category
 High-range offences: those that were
30km/hr or greater over the speed limit
 Mid-range offences: all other offences
Effects of index offence severity
 Compared to those with mid- and low-range
offences, those with high-range index offence
had a significantly:
− greater proportion re-offending;
− higher average number of offences; and
− higher average number of re-offences.
 No differential effects of penalty change
2. Offence History
 Low-range offenders: no speeding offences
prior to index
 High-range offenders: 2 or more speeding
offences prior to index, where at least two
were 30 km/hr or greater over the speed limit
 Mid-range offenders: all other offenders
Effects of offence history
 Compared to mid- and low-range offenders,
high-range offenders had a significantly:
− greater proportion re-offending;
− higher average number of offences;
− fewer days until re-offence; and
− higher average number of re-offences.
 No differential effects of penalty change
Potential Confounding Factors
1. Intensity of speed enforcement
– Speed enforcement hours
2. Community perceptions
– Annual community attitudes surveys
3. Driving exposure
– Fuel sales
1. Intensity of speed enforcement
Speed
2001 Cohort period
2003 Cohort period
Percentage
enforcement May 2001 – April 2003 May 2003 – April 2005
change
Measure*
Hours of
operation
Number of
offences
detected
Detection
rate
414,699
594,093
43%
1,170,373
1,121,735
- 4%
2.82
1.89
* Includes all speed camera and radar based speed enforcement
2. Community perceptions
 The trend in self-reported exposure (self and
others) to speed cameras was stable from 1998
to 2005.
 Reported awareness of penalty changes:
– 69% in 2003 (year of change)
– 39% in 2004
 However, knowledge of the penalty changes
varied in terms of accuracy.
3. Driving exposure
Time period
Litres sold*
Pre-penalty
change
May 2001 –
April 2003
4,515,314,862
Post-penalty
change
May 2003 –
April 2005
5,902,016,763
%change
30.71%
increase
*All fuel types sold by fuel retail outlets in Queensland
There was an increase in fuel sales from 2001-03 to 2003-05 period.
As such, the results obtained in the study would not appear to be due
to any reduction in driving exposure.
Speeding recidivists
Speeding recidivist profiling
(1)
 Examined demographic characteristics, traffic offence
histories and criminal histories of speeding offenders
 Compared characteristics and offence histories of low
and mid-range offenders with high-range, repeat
speeding offenders
Speeding recidivist profiling
(2)
 Utilised the data from the speeding penalty change
study for the combined 2001 and 2003 cohorts
(because no differences on key variables of interest)
 Examined five years of traffic offence history, prior to
the index speeding offence
 Examined lifetime criminal history
Watson et al. 2009
Speeding recidivist profiling
(3)
 Three classifications of offenders were
determined ‘a priori’
– Low-range: one offence less than 15km/hr over
speed limit during study timeframe
– Mid-range: at least one offence more than 15km/hr
over the speed limit
– High-range: two or more offences, with at least two
being 30 km/hr or more over the speed limit (i.e.
high range, repeat offenders)
Breakdown of offenders
(n = 84,468)
High-range
3.7%
Mid-range
90.5%
Low-range
5.8%
Profiling results
(1)
• Significant differences between high-range
offenders compared to low- and mid-range
offenders
• Demographics - High-range offenders
more likely:
– Male
– Younger
– Hold Provisional licence
– Hold Motorcycle licence
Profiling results
(2)
Traffic History
• High-range offenders more likely than low- and
mid-range offenders to have committed:
–
–
–
–
–
Alcohol
Unlicensed driving
Dangerous driving
Seatbelt, and
‘Other’ traffic offences in the 5 years prior to index
offence
Crash history
97%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
93.7%
86%
Crash
No Crash
14%
3%
Low range
6.3%
Mid range
High range
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 358.6, p < .001, c= .21
Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 286.2, p < .001, c= .06
Criminal histories
 1000 offenders selected
– 300 random sample of low-range
– 300 random sample of mid-range
– 400 random sample of high-range
 Data provided by Queensland Police Service
 Overall, 30.5% had at least one criminal offence
–
–
–
–
–
–
15.9% property (eg. stealing, break and enter)
14.9% drug offences
10.2% offences against order (eg. public nuisance)
7.3% offences against the person (eg. assault)
7.2% traffic offences (ie. those requiring attendance at court)
4.6% regulation offences (eg. prostitution, liquor licensing)
Comparison of criminal histories
Low-range
offenders
Mid-range
offenders
High-range
offenders
Overall Criminal
history
7.0%
21.0%
55.2%
Property*
38.1%
44.4%
44.3%
Drug*
14.3%
36.5%
53.8%
Person*
14.3%
15.9%
27.1%
Traffic*
52.4%
28.6%
19.5%
Order*
14.3%
28.6%
36.7%
Regulation*
4.8%
3.2%
19.5%
Standardised residuals +/- 1.96 bolded
*% of those with criminal history
Conclusions for recidivism research
 The introduction of more severe speeding penalties in
Queensland appears to have had an absolute
specific deterrent effect and reduced re-offending in
the following two years
 However, the change appears to have had little
impact on the overall frequency of re-offending
among those who did re-offend
 Further research into the effectiveness of speeding
penalties and sanctions needed
Conclusions for recidivism research
 High-range, repeat speeding offenders appear to be
a problematic group of drivers
 They are substantially different from low- and midrange offenders on many demographic, traffic and
criminal history factors
 Need to consider innovative, tailored strategies for
reducing recidivism among high-range, repeat
offenders
Speed management priorities
(1)
 Reduce opportunities to avoid detection and
punishment by:
− identifying best mix of automatic and manned enforcement
− investigating individuals who accumulate large amount of
demerit points (NSW & Victoria)
− developing better detection of speeding motorcyclists
− implementing innovative strategies like point-to-point (average)
enforcement which identifies persistent speeding over longer
distances
Speed management priorities
(2)
 Implement and evaluate innovative sanctions for
reducing speeding recidivism
− vehicle impoundment
− intelligent speed adaption (ISA)
− behaviour change/rehabilitation programs
Speed management priorities
(3)
 Innovative communication strategies needed to:
− challenge perception that speeding is okay and that
everyone speeds
− address community perceptions of enforcement
tolerances
− challenge perception that low level speeding is safe
− encourage voluntary use of ISA (private and fleet
vehicles)
− learn from success of others…
Fleiter & Watson, 2012
Merci.
Thank you for the opportunity to be here today.
Do you have any questions?
[email protected]
Mark your Diaries!
International Council on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety
Conference (ICADTS T2013)
August 2013, Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre
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change: what works and what doesn't work? National Conference of the Australasian College of Road
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Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 13, 49-62.
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