MEMS & Sensors for IoT: how big can it be? IHS Presentation
IHS Presentation MEMS & Sensors MEMS & Sensors for IoT: how big can it be? September 21st 2014 Jérémie Bouchaud, Director and Senior Principal Analyst, MEMS & Sensors [email protected] Marwan Boustany, Senior Analyst, Consumer MEMS and Sensors [email protected] © 2014 IHS ihs.com Contents MARKET TODAY: Smartphones and tablets Wearables THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM: AUTOMOTIVE THE MARKET IN THE MID TO LONG TERM: INDUSTRIAL IOT smart homes smart cities smart factories © 2014 IHS 2 Connected Device Hierarchy: IOT Internet of Things IP Addressable Connected Non-IP Addressable Electronic Internet Connected Internet connected, IP addressable, Electronic devices Closed Network Unconnected All Objects Tagged Internet of Everything NonElectronic Untagged Unconnected Objects: Desk, chair, soda can, fire hydrant, animal collar, shipping pallet, buildings, etc. Connected Electronic Devices: Bluetooth headset, printer, computer monitor, DVD player, licensed mobile radio unit, etc. Unconnected Electronic Devices: Calculator, streetlight, vending machine, coffee maker, blood pressure monitor, etc. IP-addressable Connected Devices: Tablet PC, smartphone, Infotainment head unit, smart meter, EV charging station, home health hub, etc. Source: IHS © 2014 The Market Today Smartphones and tablets Wearables © 2014 IHS 4 Shipment of sensors which are relevant for IoT scenario in handsets and tablets (touch sensor not included) 25 Biometric sensors (fingerprint, retina scanning...) Billions of units 20 Health/environment sensors (Pulse, Gas, Humidity, UV, Temp) 15 Imaging sensors (VIS and thermal) 10 Light sensors: ALS, prox, RGB Microphones 5 Motion sensors: accelero, mag, gyro, pressure and combo 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sensor elements counted e.g. 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro) © 2014 IHS 5 Shipment of sensors for wearable takes off Sensor shipment by wearable device category 0.7 Smart earbuds / headsets Billions of units 0.6 Sports & Running Computers Outdoor Pursuits Computers 0.5 Foot Pods & Pedometers 0.4 Action cameras 0.3 Smart clothing and other wearables Activity Monitors 0.2 Fitness & Heart Rate Monitors 0.1 Smart Glasses Smart Watches 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for wearables report - 2014 Sensor elements counted e,g, 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro) © 2014 IHS 6 Shipment of sensors for wearable by sensor type Sensor shipment by sensor type 0.7 Environment sensors (UV, humidity, temp, gas) Billions of units 0.6 0.5 Heath sensors (pulse, oximetry, skin temp, hydration) 0.4 0.3 UI MEMS/ Sensors (microphone, ALS, prox) 0.2 0.1 Motion sensors (accelero, gyro, mag, pressure) 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for wearables report - 2014 Sensor elements counted e,g, 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro) © 2014 IHS 7 The Market in the Short Term © 2014 IHS 8 Total automotive sensor shipment by function 7 Instrument panel illumination Electrochromic mirror Windscreen wiper motor Various switches Solar sensor Rain sensor HVAC valve position Head rest position Fuel tank level Electric sunroof motor Electric roof (open/close) Electric front window motor Compass Cabin HVAC Boot (trunk) lock Tire pressure monitor Steering wheel angle Seat track position Roll detection Passenger occupation detection ESC Electric power steering motor Crash sensing Brake fluid level Airbag Active suspension Acceleration pedal Wideband lambda sensor Vacuum brake booster pump Turbocharger speed Selector lever position SCR tank level Oil pressure NOx sensor Mass Air Flow Lambda sensor In-cylinder pressure HEV / EV DC-DC subsystem inverter Gasoline direct injection Exhaust gas temperature Exhaust gas recirculation valve motor Exhaust control valve EV, PEHV, HEV HVAC compressor motor Engine speed Engine coolant temperature Electronic throttle motor Dual clutch and AMT motor Diesel Common fuel rail motor Crankshaft Continuous variable transmission Camshaft Barometric air pressure Automatic, AMT, DCT transmission Air intake temperature 6 Billions of units 5 4 3 2 1 0 Head Unit: Multipurpose Built-in navigation Vehicle Alarm Tunnel detection Seat motor Noise cancellation system HVAC motor Head rest motor Electronic Parking Brake Electric roof motor Electric rear window motor Door lock Cabin temperature, anti-fog Cabin air quality Air intake flap motor Steering wheel torque Steer by wire motor Seat belt presence detection Pedestrian protection Fuel tank vapor Electrohydraulic power steering motor E-call, accident sensor Brake Light Switch Brake by wire motor ADAS Active suspension ABS (wheel speed) Variable lift control actuator Vacuum brake booster Turbocharger motor SCR tank temperature PM (soot) sensor Oil level Neutral position (manual) Manifold absolute pressure Knock sensor HEV / EV motor inverter HEV / EV battery monitor Fuel level Exhaust Gas Recirculation Valve Position Exhaust gas recirculation EV, PEHV, HEV propulsion motor EV, PEHV, HEV engine cooling pump motor Engine cooling fan Electronic throttle valve EGR temperature Diesel particle filter Diesel common fuel rail Coolant level Clutch position Battery Monitoring System Auxillary water pump motor Ammonia sensor 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: IHS Automotive MEMS tracker – H1 2014, Magnetic sensor tracker H1 2014, Powertrain sensors tracker H1 2014, ADAS semiconductor intelligent service Non semiconductor sensors in powertrain not included (potentiometers, reed, ceramic pressure etc) © 2014 IHS 9 Total Automotive sensor shipment by domain and by technology Automotive sensor shipment by technology 7 7 6 6 5 5 Billions of units Billions of units Automotive sensor shipment by domain 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Infotainment Body and Convenience electronics Chassis and safety Powertrain 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Radar Optical sensor Non semiconductor sensor MEMS Magnetic Source: IHS Automotive MEMS tracker – H1 2014, Magnetic sensor tracker H1 2014, Powertrain sensors tracker H1 2014, ADAS semiconductor intelligent service © 2014 IHS 10 Obvious sensors in IoT scenario: short term Throttle, EGR valve position, manifold air pressure, altitude, mass air flow, DPF, common fuel rail, start-stop, EGR, continuous transmission Compass, HVAC position, sunroof, wipers, solar sensors, head-up display, MEMS microphones, brightness, rain, auto dimming mirror, automatic lights Cam/crankshaft position, engine speed, throttle by wire, engine oil, brake fluid level, Airbag accelerometer, roll detection, passenger occupation, in-cylinder pressure, active suspension accelerometer Various brushless DC motors, cooling fan, coolant level, ABS, pedestrian detection, crash sensing (ultrasound) ADAS: Radar, image sensors, ultrasonic sensors, infrared imagers, LIDAR © 2014 IHS Trunk / door lock switches, electric windows, HVAC, HUD, air quality, temp. antifog, in-dash navigation gyroscope, night vision Wheel speed sensing, fuel level, seat position, belt presence, TPMS, fuel vapor Electronic parking brake, suspension pressure, alarm, E-call, electronic stability control, roll-over Battery management sensor, wing mirror position, steering wheel angle, torque Cars are becoming increasingly connected Automotive connected systems shipment 140 120 Millions of units 100 80 60 40 20 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Bluetooth WiFi - 802.11x Telematics V2X Source: IHS Infotainment Semiconductor Intelligent Service © 2014 IHS 12 Longer term: What else can be done with 6 billion connected automotive sensors? • Predictive maintenance? • Giving early warning of some kind of major engine fault. • Adjusting of the engine to account for wear over its life. • (Monetized) services • Updating the braking or ESC algorithms with new developments (or even standards),. • Turning on features in a vehicle like hill start assist or TPMS option for a fee as an aftermarket feature. • Fuel quality. Are you getting the XX octane you are paying for? • More dynamic reporting for consumer after scheduled maintenance – did they “really”change all the fluids? Or just charge you for it? • Monitoring entire fleets • Collect real time statistical data on new engine, understand what can be improved in future generations. • Better targeted recall. • The current architecture is not ready to support these applications. • Powertrain, infotainment, safety etc. currently use separate networks. © 2014 IHS 13 The Market in the Mid to Long Term smart homes smart cities smart factories © 2014 IHS 14 Smart home services install base: the U.S.A. market Total installed base of Smart Home Services in the USA 20 18 16 Millions 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 IHS Smart Home Subscribers Report - 2014 © 2014 IHS 15 Smart homes subscriber services: the U.S.A. market New subscribers to Smart Homes service by service type 100% • Example companies providing smart home services in the USA: • ADT 90% • Nest 80% • Comcast 70% • AT&T 60% • Home Depot 50% • Lowe‘s 40% 30% • Cox Communication 20% • Creston 10% • Vivint • FrontPoint Security 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • Honeywell Lighting Controls Subscribers Energy Management Subscribers Home Monitoring Subscribers Hazard Detection Subscribers IHS Smart Home Subscribers Report - 2014 © 2014 IHS 16 Smart homes: the U.S.A. market Sensor shipment for smart homes by sensor type 18 18 16 16 14 14 Millions of units Millions of units Sensor shipment for smart homes by service type 12 10 8 6 12 10 8 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lighting Controls Subscribers 2018 Home Monitoring Subscribers Hazard Detection Subscribers Energy Management Subscribers 2013 2014 2015 Motion Temperature Gas Light Sound 2016 2017 2018 Magnetic Smoke Humidity Water IHS Sensors for IoT – preliminary results © 2014 IHS 17 Smart cities: deployment by region • IHS Technology definition of a Number of smart cities Smart City 100 90 80 70 • A city that has deployed, or is Americas currently piloting, the integration of ICT solutions across three or more of the following functions: Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia-Pacific • Mobility and transport 60 • Energy and sustainability 50 • Physical infrastructure 40 • Governance, safety and security 30 • In order to improve efficiency, 20 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 manage complexity and enhance citizen quality of life, leading to a sustainable improvement in city operation. IHS Smart Cities: Business Models, Technologies & Existing Projects – World – 2014 © 2014 IHS 18 Smart cities by function Smart cities by functional area (multiple functions/city) • Smart ticketing • Smart parking 100% Governance 90% • Intelligent transportation systems • Energy and sustainibiltiy 80% Safety and Security 70% 60% Physical Infrastructure 50% • Smart grid • Environmental sensors • Irrigation management • Physical Infrastructure • Smart street lighting 40% Energy and Sustainability 30% 20% Mobility and Transport 10% 0% • Smart buildings • Waste management • Safety and Security • Integrated video surveillance • Predictive analytics 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 IHS Smart Cities: Business Models, Technologies & Existing Projects – World – 2014 © 2014 IHS • Mobility and transport • Governance • Mobile reporting applications • Consolidated services platforms 19 Sensors for smart cities Sensor shipment for smart cities by sensor type 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Millions of units Millions of units Sensor shipment for smart city by service type 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 Traffic Management Smart Street Lighting Waste Disposal Management Air Quality Monitoring 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 Gas Proximity Temperature Particle Light Pressure/Force Motion Other sensor Magnetic Noise Wind Vision IHS Sensors for IoT – preliminary results © 2014 IHS 20 Industrial Monitoring and Control Cellular Modules in Asset Management 45 40 Millions of units 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2012 2013 2014 Industrial Monitoring & Control 2015 2016 Pipeline & Tank Monitoring 2017 2018 Asset Tracking IHS Cellular Modules for M2M - 2014 © 2014 IHS 21 Cloud based machine health monitoring: potential? • 300,000 plants in the US • Machine health of compressors, pumps etc. • Until now: manual data collectors (Emerson, GE, CSI...) • Operators from the service provider drive from plant to plant to analyze data. • Emerging “cloud based“ machine health monitoring e.g. AZIMA • 1 analyst covers > 100 plants (as opposed to 5 plants with data loggers) with (typically) 100 machines / plant. • Vertical organization of analysts by: oil, pharmaceuticals, food, industrial gases... • Beyond vibration, machine health monitoring also covers oil quality and infrared (thermal cameras). © 2014 IHS 22 Cloud based machine health monitoring: no mass market for sensors anytime soon... • Off-line monitoring in most cases • Only a few vibration sensors are used per plant for monitoring 100s of machines. • An operator installs vibration sensors on one machine, records the data and sends it to a cloud based analysis service provider. • Then puts the sensor on next machine. • Process control is reluctant to implement on-line monitoring • Wired sensors are very expensive. • Wireless sensors are difficult to implement in industrial environments (EMI) • Vibration sensors are “expensive“ ($150-$400) • Siteoperatorisusedequipmentoperatinginthe“orangezone“.Theyarenot willing to monitor health of every machine in real time. © 2014 IHS 23 Conclusion: Sensors for IoT coming in waves • Handsets and tablets will still make up for most of connected sensors in next 10 years. • Sensor shipment will more than double in 5 years from 10.4 billion sensors in 2013 to 23.2 billion in 2018. • Automotive • 6 billion sensors in 2018. • ADAS and E-Call sensors are the first sensors to support IoT scenarios. • As cars are becoming connected car OEMs are exploring how to create value by leveraging“6billionconnectedsensors“. • Industrial IoT • Sensor opportunity generated by IoT in the range 10s to 100s of millions, not billions. • Smart homes is one of largest opportunity for sensors in this category in the next 10 years. © 2014 IHS 24 IHS currently quantifying the sensor market for Industrial IoT • Smart homes • Agriculture • Smart cities • Asset tracking • Smart factories • Drones and robotics • Health monitoring • Seismic sensing • Independant living • Other consumer • Smart grid applications e.g. Smart diapers • ... © 2014 IHS 25 IHS Customer Care: • Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); [email protected] • Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; [email protected] • Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; [email protected] © 2014 IHS. 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Industrial, Medical, Mil-Aero IoT market (nodes, controllers, infrastructure) Industrial Internet Connected Devices – New Device Shipment 8 Other Industrial 7 Test & Measurement Millions of units 6 Security Power & Energy 5 Military & Aerospace 4 Medical 3 Lighting Industrial Automation 2 EFT-POS, Smart Cards 1 Commercial Transport Building Automation - 2011 2012 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 IHS Internet of Things report – 2014 Edition © 2014 IHS 27
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