BDT MONTHLY TECHNICAL REPORT 7 November 2014 CURRENCY MARKETS US DOLLAR INDEX The long term view on the US Dollar remains bullish against the major currencies. After breaking out of a first major retracement at the end of October, the upward move has pushed through the first resistance at 88.0 and now targets 89.0, previous all-time high, last seen in 2010. Trend indicators are bullish. The recent retracement area has now become a formidable support are. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za P a g e |2 USDZAR The USDZAR remains low inside the upward sloping channel, so this chart has plenty upside potential within the channel. First resistance is found at around 11.38. I expect resistance at 11.38 to be challenged during November. Major trend line support is found around 10.90. CBOT CORN Dec14Corn is expected to trade within the 360 – 380 price band at least until Options close-out on the 21st of November. We may even have a brief push up to 395 during November. The upward trend witnessed during October has one more upward leg to go before reaching maturity. I expect this market to edge higher until the end of November, but expect weakness to follow going into December. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za P a g e |3 CBOT HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Dec14HRW remains bearish at the start of November, but resistance at 600 is of huge interest. A breach of this level during November will trigger buying interest which could lift this contract by $1 a bushel targeting levels around 700. I would adopt a neutral view on this contract during November. CBOT SOYBEANS Nov14Soybeans is targeting resistance at 1055. This contract will find solid overhead resistance in the 1055 – 1100 area. I expect this contract to enter this reistance area during November, but a reversal will follow towards the end of the month going into December. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za P a g e |4 CBOT SOY MEAL Dec14Soy Meal experienced an unusual blow-out in October due to serious supply issues. I expect to see the retracement to continue during the first half of November targeting lower levels around 350 (50% retracement), maybe even the 340 level. This contract finds comfort around the 350 level. SOUTH AFRICAN FUTURES EXCHANGE DEC14WM Dec14WM is in an upward leg early November. I expect this contract to gravitate towards the 2000 level during November. Heavy resistance is found around 2000. I would however caution against a possible sell-off to follow the current 5th and final leg of this upward trend. Such a selloff is expected towards the end of the month and may retrace back to major support found at around 1700. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za P a g e |5 SAFEX DEC14 YM Dec14YM is in an upward sloping channel and is busy developing the 5 th and final leg of the current upward market. The 2050 level is in sight and a 2100 is possible. SAFEX DEC14 WHEAT The Dec14Wheat contract shows long term trend support at 3500 and then subsequent support / resistance levels at 3600, 3690 and 3870. During October the red resistance level at 3690 is of interest as well as the rising trend support line now found at around 3660. At this point the bullish bias is hanging on a thread. A drop through support at 3660 will be confirmed by a close below 3650 during the early part of October and will then bring the 3500 level into view. SAFEX DEC14SOYABEANS Dec14Soyabeans is high inside a downward sloping channel. Channel resistance is found around 5250. Another downward leg is expected before this bear market reaches maturity. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za P a g e |6 SAFEX SUNFLOWERSEED The SUNS continuous graph is shown below. The Long term upward trend remains intact since being tested in early September. A drop below long term support at around 4200 will be significant. The next graph focuses on the Dec14SUNs contract. Here we see two major downward legs within the bear channel. Another downward leg targeting the bottom end of the channel is possible during October before maturity of the bear market is reached. Solid support is found around 4200. A breach of resistance at 4600 will confirm an end to the bear market and will attract technical buying interest. At this stage the upward leg within the channel is intact and the short term technical picture remains bullish. Short term trend support is found at around 4500. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za P a g e |7 Market Report prepared by Johann Reinecke Tel: Mobile: 021-809 2547 0827700114 [email protected] BESTER DERIVATIVE TRADING AND IT'S EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES AND ASSOCIATES DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF ANY INFORMATION OR ANALYSIS CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT. THERE MAY BE OMISSIONS OR INACCURACIES IN THIS REPORT. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, BESTER DERIVATIVE TRADING SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT AND MAKES NO EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY REGARDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. BESTER DERIVATIVE TRADING SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL LOSS OR DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF, OR IN CONNECTION WITH YOUR USE OF THIS TECHNICAL MARKET REPORT. Bester Derivative Trading (Pty) Ltd ● Reg no 2007/029575/07 Telephone: +27(0)21 809 2500 ●Fax: +27(0)86 618 8924 ● [email protected] PO Box 7329, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa Director: GW Bester www.bester.co.za
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