www.melbournecup.pwc.com.au Why does the Melbourne Cup stop the nation? The Melbourne Cup horse race captures the attention of millions of people around the world. It is a race between the best horses, with the best jockeys, on a record length track of 3,200m. To add to the mix, the race is handicapped, meaning the top horses third year to bring you analytics on the top performing horses from PwC’s analysis of historic race data. For further insight, visit our page www.melbournecup.pwc.com.au It’s the data that stops the nation É» ¬¿µ» ²± ®»-°±²-·¾·´·¬§ ·º §±« ´±-» Our 5 top performers 1 2 3 5 4 Odds $21 Fun facts $13 $8.5 $7.5 Fawkner Protectionist $5 Admire Rakti Mutual Regard Araldo ß¹» ±º ©·²²»®- ·² ¬¸» ´¿-¬ ë §»¿®-æ 6 6 years old Stallion 100% ±º ©·²²»®- ©»®» 60% -¬¿´´·±²- ±ª»® ¬¸» °¿-¬ ë §»¿®-ò ̸» ´¿-¬ º»³¿´» ¸±®-» ¬± ©·² ¿ ®¿½» ©¿Ó¿µ§¾» Ü·ª¿ ·² îððëò É»·¹¸¬æ 54.5kg Last 5 days on Twitter Protectionist Admire Rakti Red Cadeaux Here are the features of top performing Melbourne Cup horses, focussing on the latest patterns and trends. Ù»²¼»®æ Top buzz ±º ©·²²»®- ¸¿ª» ¾»»² ê §»¿®- ±´¼ò ̸» ´¿-¬ í§± ¸±®-» ¬± ©·² ¬¸» Ó»´¾±«®²» Ý«° ©¿·² ïçìïò Last year the winner (Fiorente) was in our top 3 on Twitter ر®-» Ò¿¬·±²¿´·¬§æ Irish ߪ»®¿¹» ©·²²·²¹ ¸±®-» ©»·¹¸¬ øîðïïóîðïí÷ Ó·² ìë ×®»´¿²¼ Ó¿¨ ëìòë ëç Ù®»¿¬ Þ®·¬¿·² Ú®¿²½» Ó±-¬ ¬±° °´¿½·²¹ ¸±®-»- ·² ¬¸» ´¿-¬ í §»¿®- ¸¿ª» ¾»»² ×®·-¸ÿ ß«·» ¸±®» ¸¿ª»²¬ °´¿½»¼ ·² ¬¸» ´¿-¬ í §»¿®òòò½±«´¼ ¬¸·- ¾» ¬¸»·® ´«½µ§ §»¿®á My Ambilvalent and Mutual Regard Last year Fiorente had a single $50k bet placed for Melbourne Cup Instinct versus Analytics: “Richy” Rick Protectionist Who Shot the Barman Araldo “In-the-know” Hadlow Our horsey panel Ì·°- º®±³ ¬¸®»» ±º ±«® ª»¬»®¿²- ©¸± ¸¿ª» ¸·-¬±®·½¿´´§ ¾»»² ¹±±¼ ¿¬ ¸±®-·²¹ ¿®±«²¼ò Mutual Regard Who Shot Thebarman My Ambivalent Signoff Protectionist (2007-2013) “Mac Attack” Fawkner The top 5 horses leading during the middle of the race never win www.melbournecup.pwc.com.au The settled position of a horse (its position in the middle stages of a race) is vital when it comes to their winning chances. As the Melbourne Cup is a long distance race winners tend to come from the middle/back of Settled Position The ideal settled position depends on the speed of the race. Fast tempo race: suits horses towards the back of as they conserve their energy by getting cover from the horses in front of them. Slow tempo race: the front runners are suited as there is no real advantage in getting cover during the race and they have less ground to cover going into the Start 400m ÓÝæ îðïí Ì®¿½µæ Ù±±¼ Í°»»¼æ Ú¿-¬ Finish Settled Position A fast tempo race resulted in the front 3 horses at settled Brown Panther was tipped to lead the race (settled 2nd) only to tire Fiorente (1st) Red Cadeaux (2nd) Mt Athos (3rd) ÓÝæ îðïî Ì®¿½µæ Ù±±¼ Í°»»¼æ Í´±© A slow tempo race in Green Moon winning. resulting Jakkalberry (3rd) Fiorente (2nd) Green Moon (1st) ÓÝæ îðïï Ì®¿½µæ Ù±±¼ Í°»»¼æ Ú¿-¬ A very fast paced race saw the dominate. Red Cadeaux (2nd) Dunaden (1st) Lucas Cranach (3rd) What does this mean for this year…? Horses to watch out for Horses tend to have a preferred settled position that they try and stick to (e.g. Last year it was well known that Brown Panther loves to lead). Based on our analysis, this year we believe the following horses are likely to lead during the race and have a lower chance of winning: Brambles and Signoff are likely to lead during the race winners come from the middle of the pack. If your horse is not in the top 5 in the middle of the race …..don’t panic! Í»¬¬´»¼ б-·¬·±² °±-·¬·±²ô ¬¸» û ®»°®»-»²¬¬¸» °®±°±®¬·±² ±º ¸±®-»¬¸¿¬ ¸¿ª» ½±³» º®±³ ¿ °¿®¬·½«´¿® -»¬¬´»¼ °±-·¬·±²ò Horses we believe will settle in the middle of the pack, have good turn of foot, and are therefore likely contenders to place are: Fawkner, Araldo, Mutual Regard, Admire Rakti, Protectionist, Lucia Valentina, Red Cadeaux for all horses, please see our form guide (next page) or visit www.melbournecup.pwc.com.au Ú·²·-¸ °±-·¬·±² Ë° ¬¸» º®±²¬ ߬ ¬¸» ¾¿½µ É·² ðû ïððû ðû д¿½» ðû èíû ïéû Ó·¼óÚ·»´¼ îçû ìêû îìû Þ¿½µ îéû îéû ìëû Analytics provides insight and value when making a decision, yet generally should If we (or any other predictors) could actually pick the winner of this race, we may very well be on a beach somewhere...with that in mind, best of luck! Guiding informed decisions by delivering insights through analysis If you would like to discuss how you can use analytics to deliver powerful insights to your organisation, please contact: John Studley, Insight Analytics Alastair Pearson, Insight Analytics 03 8603 3770| [email protected] 02 8266 5345 | [email protected] 03 8603 4968| [email protected] Matt Kuperholz, Insight Analytics Jason Juma-Ross, Digital 03 8603 1274 | [email protected] John Riccio, Digital 02 8266 1252| [email protected] This document/site has been prepared for general information on matters of interest only, and is not intended to be taken seriously. PwC does not have any specialist knowledge any information contained in this document/site and no representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. PwC does not recommend or endorse the placing of any bet in relation to any horse in the Melbourne Cup. All odds are as of 9.00am Sunday 2 November 2014. Readers should check the Gamble responsibly. For advice and help, visit Gambling Help Online (www.gamblinghelponline.org.au) or phone 1800 858 858. and legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details A little more detail... 2 Horse Name Weight Recent form in the last 2 years Wins % in the last 2 years 1 Admire Rakti 58.5 14: 3-2-3 2 Fawkner 57 14: 5-3-2 3 Red Cadeaux 57 15: 1-3-1 4 Cavalryman 57 13: 4-2-2 5 Protectionist 56.5 9: 4-3-1 6 Sea Moon 56.5 9: 1-1-0 7 Seismos 56 17: 5-1-1 8 Junoob 55.5 18: 6-3-2 33% 9 Royal Diamond 55.5 9: 3-3-1 33% 7yo 7yo 9yo 6yo 5yo 7yo 7yo 7yo 9yo 10 Gatewood 55 17: 4-5-1 11 Mutual Regard 55 12: 5-4-1 12 Who Shot Thebarman 55 15: 8-2-0 7yo 6yo 6yo 1 3 Place % in the last 2 years 21% Preferred track condition Horsey Panelist vote 57% 36% 7% 71% M 33% 31% 62% 44% 11% R M 89% 22% 29% 41% 61% 78% 59% 24% 42% H 83% R H 67% 53% “Richy” Rick R “In-the-know” Hadlow H “Mac Attack” M #races: #1st - #2nd - #3rd Form in the last 2 years Preferred settled position Front Middle Back Our top 5 A little more detail... 2 Horse Name Weight Recent form in the last 2 years Wins % in the last 2 years 1 3 Place % in the last 2 years 13 Willing Foe 55 6: 2-1-2 14 My Ambivalent 54.5 9: 2-2-2 15 Precedence 54.5 23: 4-2-2 16 Brambles 54 9: 1-1-1 11% 33% 17 Mr O’Ceirin 54 21: 3-3-0 14% 29% 18 Au Revoir 53.5 13: 3-1-2 19 Lidari 53.5 14: 2-3-1 14% 43% 20 Opinion 53.5 16: 2-4-1 13% 44% 21 Araldo 53 8: 1-0-3 13% 22 Lucia Valentina 53 13: 5-1-3 23 Unchain My Heart 51.5 26: 3-2-5 24 Signoff 51 13: 7-1-2 8yo 33% Preferred track condition Preferred settled position Horsey Panelist vote Our top 5 83% 22% 67% H 6yo 9yo 6yo 7yo 5yo 6yo 6yo 7yo 35% 17% 23% 50% 38% 4yo 46% 12% R 69% 38% 8yo 5yo 54% 77% M This document/site has been prepared for general information on matters of interest only, and is not intended to be taken seriously. PwC does not have any specialist the truth or accuracy of any information contained in this document/site and no representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. PwC does not recommend or endorse the placing of any bet in relation to any horse in the Melbourne Cup. All odds are as of 9.00am Gamble responsibly. For advice and help, visit Gambling Help Online (www.gamblinghelponline.org.au) or phone 1800 858 858. separate and legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details
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