Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary Phase 1: Development and Assessment of Paper Mill Options Prepared for North South Market Development Group and Waste & Resources Action Programme WRAP Reference: PAP0024 Written by: Published by: The Waste & Resources Action Programme The Old Academy, 21 Horse Fair, Banbury, Oxon OX16 0AH Tel: 01295 819900 Fax: 01295 819911 www.wrap.org.uk WRAP Business Helpline: Freephone: 0808 100 2040 Date (published) ISBN: 1-84405-288-5 R&D Report: Paper Creating markets for recycled resources Contents INTRODUCTION 3 Methodology 3 Paper Products Consumption 4 Sources, Volumes and Markets for Recovered Paper 5 Paper Mill Options to Utilise Recovered Paper 7 Conclusion 10 Recommendations and Further Actions 10 Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 2 Introduction The North South Market Development Group (NSMDG) in conjunction with the Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) has sponsored this project. The objective is to determine the feasibility of situating a recovered paper based paper mill or mills in the island of Ireland (‘IOI’). The project combines the interests of both Ireland (‘ROI’) and Northern Ireland (‘NI’). Jaakko Pöyry Consulting (‘JPC’) together with Pira International (‘PIRA’), Circa and Initiative Economic Development (‘IED’) have undertaken this work. This assessment is timely. The Regional Waste Management Plans in ROI and NI contain targets to increase the availability of recovered paper for use in indigenous industry or for further export. This work is nominated as Phase 1 and aims to provide the foundation for Phase 2, a possible detailed feasibility study for preferred mill options (s). Phase 1 contains the following key elements: • • • Review of consumption and demand for paper products Estimation of the sources, volumes and markets for recovered paper Assessment of the paper mill options to utilise recovered paper on the IOI. Information obtained is evaluated to determine whether there is supply of recovered fibre and demand for paper products to sustain a new paper mill in the IOI. The assessment of mill options considers a number of factors to identify what type of mills(s) could potentially be viable. The results will be presented at an Industry Briefing Session to determine whether there is sufficient interest in carrying out a full feasibility study. Methodology To establish demand and supply data, the work has used a top down approach, beginning with high level statistics and progressing to more detailed levels until a robust dataset was achieved. This often involved commencing with government sources (e.g. EPA, Eurostat), then pursuing supply-demand dynamics through face-to-face interviews (22) across industry and involved organisations. These interviews have played a multiple role of engaging sector participation in the work, on-the-ground interpretation of statistics, and also resolution of data and sector interpretation. The interviews included representation from across the whole supply chain in IOI. There were data conflicts, sometimes between high level sources. This meant that data had to be verified from additional and root sources or through feedback from questionnaires and interviews. The data consistency was resolved by using: • Information from face-to-face interviews. • Iterative exploration of data divergences with high level sources • Iterative review with the industry to test for robustness and credibility Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 3 Where high level sources substantiated their data, this was used, and this reliance on their substantiation noted. In all cases, the integrity of the mill option assessment was paramount to ensure that while debate continues the option conclusions were robust. It is important to note the sheer scale of world class paper mills and their recovered paper (RCP) demand relative to the more limited IOI RCP supply. Therefore, imprecision in the RCP supply estimate will not detract from mill option assessment and its viability. Projections of future paper demand and recovered paper supply in IOI were prepared. The results were used as key inputs into the paper mill options in terms of RCP availability and local market fit. RCP supply scenarios were also prepared, to test the impact of success (or otherwise) of waste management and IOI RCP promotion programmes on the mill options. The mill options were subjected to examination using an established toolkit which can model various mill configurations and relative competitiveness with the peer group delivering to a selected market. In almost all cases, this was London, to test the export robustness of the mill. Mill options were subjected to a feasibility test, with a profitability hurdle of 10% return on capital employed, over the business cycle. There were no grants or incentives included in the feasibility test. Paper Products Consumption The combined IOI population is small (5.6 million) but is economically active. GDP growth rates put IOI in amongst the highest achieving regions. However the small population base, as it relates to absolute paper consumption and RCP supply, is at the heart of the challenge to realise world scale paper mill facilities. The current industry structure in the IOI comprises 2 primary paper producers and over 180 secondary businesses or converting (e.g. processed into cartons, boxes, copier paper, plus printing and distribution). Domestic paper production, plus paper imports, less exports, combines to give consumption of paper for NI and ROI. At the same time there are large amounts of secondary and converted paper products (e.g. shoe boxes, packaging for white goods etc.) arriving. The paper consumption plus net imports of these secondary and converted paper products gives consumption of all paper products (see table below). These data establish the total markets available to mill options and also the fibre potential available. Total Paper Consumption (Tonnes), ROI, NI and IOI. 2003 ROI NI IOI 800 19,000 19,800 Imports 584,301 193,470 777,771 Exports 400 16,150 16,550 Consumption. Primary paper 584,701 196,320 781,021 Net imports of secondary converted paper products 340,538 110,040 450,578 Total paper products 925,239 306,360 1,231,599 Production Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 4 Consumption of all paper products was projected by major grade drawing on the social, economic and technological drivers of paper consumption. The outcome is one of growing paper consumption over the next decade, particularly in printing and writing (P&W), which finds end uses in office paper, communication, printed materials and magazines. The largest consumption is found in packaging. Total paper consumption by grade 2003-2013 (tonnes) in IOI - compared to capacity of world scale mills. Grade 2003 2005 2008 2013 Mill scale* P&W: Magazines, Flyers, Inserts 81,084 87,438 97,928 118,324 400,000 P&W: Office Papers, communications, printed materials 89,672 97,367 110,209 135,640 100-160,000 265,049 275,756 292,634 323,092 400,000 38,355 40,298 43397 49,099 10-50,000 315,012 327,945 348,018 384,240 ***250,000 82,548 85,546 90,250 99,642 15-50,000 Newsprint 216,691 221,045 227,743 227,743 400,000 Other paper products 143,188 148,248 157,322 173,695 1,231,599 1,283,643 1,367,501 1,511,475 Packaging Papers and Board Speciality paper** Converted packaging products Tissue and tissue products *Mill scale. World scale facility to be competitive. Scale represents current recovered paper-based initiatives. **Speciality papers represents many different grades with small consumption levels e.g. labels, security, filters, abrasives, medical etc. ***Carton board mill scale The assessment has used world scale mills as the basis for facility design. The difference between mill scale and paper consumption is an indicator of the export required if such a mill was placed in IOI. Tissue is well matched to local consumption levels, where a mill with between 15,000 to 50,000 tons per annum capacity has potential to serve a tissue products market of over 80,000 tonnes. Carton board leading to carton and box converting might also be considered. The rest show a world scale paper mill must be export oriented. This was used as the basis for feasibility testing – the ability to compete in export markets. Sources, Volumes and Markets for Recovered Paper The total paper consumed in IOI has been estimated at 1,231,599 tonnes comprising 925,239 tonnes from ROI and 306,360 tonnes from NI. Post consumer waste has increased 5-9% from 2001 to 2003 in ROI. The large percentage increase noted for NI data between 2002 and 2003 is due to an improved estimate of 2003 waste paper arisings. It is estimated that at least a third (477,872 tonnes) of this is currently recovered for recycling. Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 5 Post-consumer waste paper arisings on IOI-2003 (tonnes). Data sourced from EPA and DoENI 2005 ROI % change NI % change 238,994 IOI 2001 804,414 1,043,408 2002 846,151 5 251,394 5 1,097,545 2003 925,239 9 306,360 22 1,231,599 The majority of recovered paper collected in the ROI and NI is exported. China and India are the fastest growing export destinations. Paper production capacity in Asia is set to grow from 65 million tonnes (2000) to 120 million tonnes (2015), with China accounting for half of the capacity growth. Exports go from IOI, principally as mixed unsorted grades. The prospects for RCP export from IOI would appear strong, and further supported by IOI initiatives to improve RCP infrastructure. Such demands will clearly impact the prices any potential mill in the IOI will have to pay, to compete for available raw materials. The close proximity of an IOI mill to the RCP supply and the presence of a reliable end use market would be to the advantage of the local mill. Furthermore, exports to Asia have a transport cost differential to meet. The difference between RCP supply and total arisings is the waste paper sent to landfill, archived or lost e.g. tissue. Projections by main grade of RCP supply have been generated for ROI and NI. These grades are OCC (old corrugated containers e.g. cardboard boxes), ONP/OMG (old newspapers and magazines) and mixed unsorted waste paper. This has been achieved by reviewing the ‘influencing factors’ such as policy, environmental aspirations, paper demand and the waste supply chain. The projections show an almost 50% increase in supply potential over the next 10 years, driven strongly by IOI initiatives. Future RCP supply projections by grade for the IOI through to 2015 (tonnes) Year OCC News& Mags Mixed Total 2003 217,469 51,117 209,286 477,872 2005 207,933 59,752 196,773 464,458 2007 222,397 84,913 254,895 562,205 2010 241,319 100,743 279,167 621,229 2015 260,555 105,882 307,426 673,863 Two scenarios were created (high and low cases) to evaluate the impact of under- or overachieving in RCP supply programmes. These scenarios were then applied to the mill options to expose sensitivities, risk and the impact of failure to achieve IOI RCP targets. The subsequent analysis shows indeed that the mill options are dependent on achieving targets with the RCP programmes in IOI. Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 6 Paper Mill Options to Utilise Recovered Paper The option process commenced with a total list of recovered paper-based products. This included: • • • • • • Packaging containers or cardboard boxes, including white surfaced containers Packaging cartons, for example detergent, cereals, foods Tissue Printing and Writing (P&W) – papers for communication, copy and printing Newsprint Magazines After an initial screening to identify a short list, newsprint and magazines were rejected due to insufficient RCP supply availability, even in the ‘high’ case scenario. The assessment process then moved to mill modelling of the remaining candidates. The criteria applied in mill design were: • • • • • World scale. The facility should be recognised as world scale; capacity, process, configuration, inputs and outputs. Product and market leadership – the option should focus on growth areas, import replacement (IOI and Great Britain) or value niches for IOI and where local market leadership can be achieved. The technology should be such that the product specification can compete in export markets. Cost competitiveness. The facility should be able to achieve 1st or 2nd quartile cost performance (lower half of all competing producers) and allow competitive exports to main markets in particular to Great Britain. Feasibility – can meet a 10% return on capital employed over the cycle. No grants or incentives included. Environmental fit – the facility meets regulations and directives. Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 7 The summary of this assessment is as follows: Wood Scale Product and Market Leadership (2005) Cost Competitiveness Feasibility Conclusion Packaging Containers (cardboard boxes) Output: 200-400,000 t/a was examined. Full scale would require ‘all’ potential OCC collected IOI market for kraftliner and testliner is 270,000t. New IOI facility can be in 1st2nd cost quartile, but would have a large impact on current installed capacity (already in excess), leading to capacity under-utilisation and price erosion Fits well with local converting but profitability requirement challenged. Potential returns <5% A new machine in IOI is marginal. A supportive business climate would be required. Not a preferred option. Packaging Containers – as above but white surfaced Output: 120-200,000 t was examined. Full scale would consume virtually all white high quality waste paper in IOI Total market in Europe around 1 mn tonnes, so a new IOI machine would have high impact – almost all sales would be outside IOI New IOI facility can be in 1st2nd cost quartile. Small but growing market – an IOI facility would have a large impact on current installed capacity Specific but small volume fit with local converting. The new mill would easily take care of IOI consumption. Potential returns <5% As above. Tissue Output: 15-50,000 t was examined. RCP supply is sufficient – but would still need all white high quality waste paper in IOI IOI market is over 80,000 t (tissue and converted product). Mill output could have high IOI market share – would need to displace imported tissue Competitive in the IOI market as transport cost (imports) for these low weight, high volume products can be prohibitive. Fits well with local converting and could serve the IOI market. Can potentially achieve profitability targets. Opportunity is for local producer, connected to local supermarkets, converters and distributors, to replace more costly imports. Packaging – Cartons Output: 120-250,000 t was examined. An IOI facility would go into top 10 producers in Europe. Imports into UK are around 700,000 t. IOI market is over 300,000 t (total all converted packaging) New IOI facility can be in 1st2nd cost quartile, but would have a large impact on current installed capacity. Fits very well with local converting and would easily take care of IOI consumption. Could achieve around 5-10% return. IOI could be potentially attractive location. Market is IOI and GB. Would also need a positive business development climate to support investment. A new state-of-the-art facility would be amongst the largest in Europe. IOI market is around 90,000 t. New IOI facility can be in 1st2nd cost quartile. Better performers would be found in closer proximity to RCP supplies and markets Can achieve profitability targets, but highly exposed to competitors in export markets who base their business on local market advantages. RCP availability in white and high quality grades problematic. Potential, but less attractive due to RCP resource and exposure of such a mill scale in European market context. Flexible in terms of furnish grade mix – fibre supply sufficient Printing and Writing Papers (e.g. Office, Communication, Printers) Output: 100-160,000 t was examined. Requirement: Up to 100,000 t/a ONP/OMG/ other white grades An IOI new facility would go straight to top 10 European producers – big impact on existing capacity Limited in terms of high quality recovered office paper availability. Difficult option to realise Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 8 The feasibility test favours products such as tissue and perhaps cartons. The remainder are less attractive. The ranking is as follows: • Tissue – only the tissue mill option is well matched with local demand. Exports are potentially minimal. • Packaging Cartons. A potential good link to local converters and IOI packaging needs. • Printing and Writing papers. Requires high grade RCP collection. Exposed to existing and potential mills in Great Britain and the Continent • Packaging Containers. Already large capacity in Europe. • Newsprint. Excluded as insufficient fibre • Magazines. Excluded as insufficient fibre While the tissue option can stand on its own, the rest would likely require a supportive business climate through which investment and operating challenges can be addressed. The impact of the scenarios (over- and under-performance in RCP supply initiatives in IOI) is presented below. The scenario RCP supply should be compared to the average fibre mix of the mill option. The ‘high’ case, tends to secure the RCP supply by allowing both local paper production and export to take place. Even under the ‘high’ scenario there is insufficient RCP to double the paper mill capacity at a later date. However the ‘low’ case of RCP supply under-achievement, leads to 3 options failing with supply difficulties (Packaging Containers, Packaging Cartons and P&W Papers), leaving only tissue. A number require support and development to establish a high quality RCP source – white printer and office RCP. Mill fibre requirement compared to scenarios (low, base, high) of RCP availability, Tonnes. Supply Scenarios OCC Supply Low – NA Base – 262,581 High – 289,589 ONP/OMG Supply Low – 71,576 Base – 100,743 High – 220,572 Mixed Supply Low – 115,905 Base – 318,088 High – 362,199 Other RCP All RCP grades below are at max. possible Mill Option OCC required ONP/OMG required Mixed required Other RCP required Packaging Containers 237,000 0 196,000 0 Packaging Cartons 59,000 70,000 98,000 18,000 White Printer, office Tissue 0 56,000 0 19,000 as above P&W Uncoated 0 86,000 0 15,000 as above Newsprint 0 >400,000 0 0 Magazine 0 >400,000 0 0 Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 9 Conclusion This study indicates that, overall, a tissue mill is likely to present the best opportunity in IOI since: • Recovered paper of a sufficient quantity and quality as a feedstock for the mill could be sourced from IOI • There is a ready, local market for tissue paper • There are no existing tissue mills on IOI • The financial modelling suggests a mill of a capacity of 30,000 or 50,000 tonnes per annum could be financially viable The other mill options are likely to require a supportive business climate to address certain investment and operating challenges. A packaging cartons mill is the next ‘best fit’ with IOI due to presence of local converting operations. Recommendations and Further Actions • In essence this work is about identifying if a paper mill option exists which can substitute the RCP export opportunity, and thereby keep additional value within IOI (commercial component). The opportunity is also about creating a focal point for waste management and RCP infrastructural development (strategic component). • The IOI RCP streams are presently enjoying a growing export market, focusing on demand in places such as China. This is supplied largely in unsorted form, as this activity can be undertaken in the destination country, where lower cost labour is available. These export streams can exist in their own right. The issue therefore becomes, does a new paper mill facility in IOI offer additional advantage and benefit to IOI? The feasibility test shows that some with the characteristics of tissue (good local demand, well connected to converting, and transport cost dependent) have a potential role. Other options, while meeting a number of the feasibility tests, fall short in fully achieving the profitability target. • The second issue is why locate such a facility in IOI, when in a number of product cases, a better location (RCP supply, market proximity) would be Great Britain or even the Continent? In this case the product match needs to have strong connection to IOI users, for example converters, who subsequently supply the IOI industry with packaging and paper needs. Electronics, food and consumer products are all large users of high value packaging, making Packaging Cartons a possible candidate. In addition, a good fit is obtained with products that have a high transport dependency, for example tissue with a low weight to volume ratio, or products which are required close to customer – design based, small lots, just-intime (JIT) service, specialised on end-use etc. These again promote tissue and packaging cartons as the lead possibilities. Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 10 • Analysis of the supply scenarios shows it is important for investment in the collection of paper and commitment to Government targets to continue. A general underperformance of targets will eliminate some options, while high performance opens the way for multiple options (for example through site sharing) and reduced exposure to the RCP export market. • A sensitivity analysis on RCP prices, shows that the stronger mill options can continue up to price levels at which exports may fall away, being too expensive for paper mills overseas. • Triggering investment will likely require a supportive business environment which addresses the capital and operating burden, at least in the initial phases. Optimisation of site (e.g. multiple site occupation), streamlined and world scale RCP flows, rewards from bio-energy production, can all assist in improving profitability by reducing total costs up to 10-15%. A supportive business environment has allowed the construction of paper sector assets in other parts of Europe. Both ROI and NI have established enterprise organisations and links to support measures at EU and local level. • The investor community can include those from all parts of the production chain: producers who wish to play a leading role in the IOI by taking a strong market share; secondary producers such as converters who wish to participate in a local and competitive supply chain; waste paper operators who wish to access further dividend and return from their RCP businesses; exporters of RCP who wish to secure steady supply chains, and last; industrial, financial and venture capital investors with interest in waste management. • After this, other benefits (not quantified here) could stem from the development of a new paper mill. These include the rationalisation of RCP supply streams across IOI, a long term focal point for RCP streams in IOI (whether this is used as mill raw material or subsequently exported from the site) and high profile visibility to encourage increased recycling in IOI. The combined effect of these benefits is reduced market risk and efficiencies in the supply chain. Paper Mill Feasibility Study for the Island of Ireland - Summary 11
© Copyright 2024