The Chronicle Newsletter of the Council on Foreign Relations — November 2014 CFR Hosts Procession of Leaders During UN General Assembly Page 1 Analyzing the Ebola Epidemic Page 5 Task Force Urges U.S. Leaders to Put North America First Page 8 Plus CFR Funding Underscores the Organization’s Independence Page 7 Foreign Affairs: The Politics Issue Page 10 G l obal Comm u nicat ion s and Media r e l at ion s Lisa Shields Vice President Iva Zoric Director Sarah Doolin Deputy Director Melinda Wuellner Deputy Director Courtney Doggart Associate Director Tricia Miller Klapheke Associate Director Kendra Davidson Assistant Director Jake Meth Communications Coordinator Karina Piser Assistant Editor Megan Daley Communications Associate OFFI C E r s Carla A. Hills Co-Chairman Robert E. Rubin Co-Chairman David M. Rubenstein Vice Chairman Richard N. Haass President Keith Olson Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer James M. Lindsay Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair Nancy D. Bodurtha Vice President, Meetings and Membership Irina A. Faskianos Vice President, National Program and Outreach Samantha Tartas Communications Associate Suzanne E. Helm Vice President, Philanthropy and Corporate Relations PU BL I S H I NG Di r ec t or s Patricia Dorff Editorial Director John P. Abizaid Peter Ackerman Zoë Baird Alan S. Blinder Mary McInnis Boies David G. Bradley Tom Brokaw R. Nicholas Burns Steven A. Denning Blair Effron Martin S. Feldstein Laurence D. Fink Stephen Friedman Ann M. Fudge Pamela Brooks Gann Thomas H. Glocer Richard N. Haass (ex officio) Peter B. Henry Eli Dvorkin Production Editor Ashley Bregman Associate Editor Don Pollard Sardari.com Photography ObjectiveSubject Design Gene Crofts Production Caroline McCall Vice President, Education Jan Mowder Hughes Vice President, Human Resources and Administration Lisa Shields Vice President, Global Communications and Media Relations Lynda Hammes Publisher, Foreign Affairs Jeffrey A. Reinke Secretary of the Corporation Peter G. Peterson Chairman Emeritus David Rockefeller Honorary Chairman Maurice R. Greenberg Honorary Vice Chairman Leslie H. Gelb President Emeritus and Board Senior Fellow J. Tomilson Hill Carla A. Hills Susan Hockfield Donna J. Hrinak Shirley Ann Jackson Jami Miscik Eduardo J. Padrón John A. Paulson Ruth Porat Colin L. Powell David M. Rubenstein Robert E. Rubin Richard E. Salomon James G. Stavridis Margaret G. Warner Vin Weber Christine Todd Whitman Daniel H. Yergin CFR Hosts Procession of World Leaders During UN General Assembly For many years, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) has marked the unofficial opening of the new programming year at CFR, bringing an array of prominent visitors to New York City and the Council’s meeting rooms. This year, CFR hosted fifteen presidents, prime ministers, foreign ministers, and senior officials. Leaders from five continents spoke on subjects ranging from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Ukraine, and Asian stability to trade, disease, and climate change. For many visitors, national security and the economy were the most pressing subjects. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk of Ukraine gave an assessment of his country’s options six months after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as Kiev prepares for winter amid questions regarding its access to Russia’s natural gas. Describing Moscow’s agenda, he said: “President Putin is a tough guy. And I feel that he believes that he’s committing a CFR President Richard N. Haass greets Iraqi President Fuad Masum at the Council in New York. The Chronicle, November 2014 1 A roundtable discussion with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. sacred mission of restoring the Soviet Union and of restoring the strength of former [the] Russian empire. . . . It’s clear that he will never give up until we stop and contain Russia and deter Russia from committing international crimes.” Members also met with officials from countries directly threatened by ISIS, including President Fuad Masum of Iraq, who voiced his support for an expanded, multinational effort in Syria and Iraq; and the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who explained his country’s contributions to the effort against ISIS. Erdoğan also spoke to unraveling regional stability: “What happened in Libya was not unforeseeable. What happened in Egypt and what is . . . hurting the conscience of all the region happened with all of us watching. And the lack of interest on the part of the modern world on the Syrian crisis led to hundreds of thousands of people dying, and six million people being displaced.” The foreign minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, underscored the need to view ISIS as a regional problem while disagreeing with U.S. policy in Syria. “We are not saying that Assad or anybody else should be the future president of Syria. We are saying that if this man is so brutal, allow the Syrians to kick him out of office. Put conditions on how the elections should be run, not on who should run The Chronicle, November 2014 2 in the election,” he urged. Zarif also commented on nuclear talks with the United States, saying Iran was interested in pursuing a compromise, but would reject sharp limits on its ability to enrich uranium—and criticized U.S. and international sanctions. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe discussed his strategies for catalyzing Japan’s growth while emphasizing the potential of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Newly elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India outlined his proposed economic reforms and discussed India’s relationships with both the United States and China. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto gave a comprehensive overview of his country’s ongoing effort to consolidate its democracy, promising increased investments in infrastructure and continued reforms in sectors including energy and telecommunications, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi discussed his country’s efforts to reform and, in the process, generate jobs and growth. These meetings and many other UNGA-related sessions (including President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia; Interim President Mohamed Moncef Marzouki of Tunisia; Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad alThani; French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius; Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry; Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman; and Sartaj Aziz; national Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and Morgan Stanley Chief Financial Officer and CFR Board member Ruth Porat discuss ways the United States and Europe can spur economic growth. The Chronicle, November 2014 3 Tunisian Interim President Moncef Marzouki discusses his country’s political transition with Reed Kramer, chief executive officer of AllAfrica Global Media. security advisor to the prime minister of Pakistan) generated a steady flow of content, including video, audio, and transcripts. On-the-record events posted to our YouTube channel attracted more than 240,000 views. Nearly all of the on-the-record events were live-streamed on CFR.org and members watching or participating by teleconference were able to submit questions to the presider in real time. In addition to those watching online, member turnout was impressive: over one thousand attended these events in person, with nearly five hundred joining on the phone or via video feed with CFR’s Washington, DC, office. Look ing Forwa r d November 4: Former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger speaks at a half-day symposium to mark the twenty-fifth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall. November 5: Director of National Intelligence James Clapper speaks on homeland security and counterterrorism. December 3: Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dell Computer Corporation Michael Dell is featured in CFR’s CEO Speaker Series. ■■ ■■ ■■ The Chronicle, November 2014 4 Laurie Garrett tells NBC’s Chuck Todd that many are vastly underestimating the potential spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa: “It’s doubling every two weeks.” CFR Experts Weigh In on the Ebola Crisis The Ebola outbreak—which killed more than 3,400 people in West Africa by early October and recently spread to the United States and Europe—has sparked a global climate of apprehension. Senior Fellow and Pulitzer Prize–winner Laurie Garrett argued that months of inaction and ineffective measures provoked the disease’s expansion, placing affected countries in what she referred to in the New Republic as a “collective state of siege.” During a briefing on Ebola for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Garrett commended the Obama administration’s decision to deploy troops to help quell the virus’s spread, but urged it to launch a response comparable to the largest rescue mission in U.S. history that was undertaken after the tsunami that devestated Aceh, Indonesia in 2004. The Chronicle, November 2014 The United States is not alone in providing support; Chinese financial assistance— which the World Health Organization (WHO) described as “a huge boost, morally and operationally”—bolstered humanitarian efforts to fight Ebola. But Senior Fellow for Global Health Yanzhong Huang maintains that Beijing’s generosity is limited by weaknesses in its public–health sector, notably its disease reporting, response, and surveillance capacities. “China cannot become Africa’s savior in the current crisis,” he noted. Budget cuts have paralyzed the WHO’s emergency response units, argued Senior Fellow and Director of the International Institutions and Global Governance Program Stewart M. Patrick and Research Associate 5 A pregnant woman suspected of contracting Ebola in Freetown, Sierra Leone. (Bindra/UNICEF/Courtesy Reuters) Daniel Chardell on the Internationalist blog. UN member states, they maintained, should fill the gaps in overstretched nongovernmental assistance, establishing a contingency fund to empower the WHO as a first responder to transnational health threats. International health diplomacy should place greater emphasis on building horizontal, integrated healthcare systems to avoid similar pandemics like that of Ebola, according to experts Erica Penfold and Pieter Fourie on CFR.org. The researchers— members of a South African think tank that is part of CFR’s Council of Councils, a group of twenty-four major policy institutes from around the world—stressed the need for a revised international health-care strategy grounded in preventive diplomatic measures before crises become too large to manage at national and regional levels. The Chronicle, November 2014 With a reported infection in Texas on September 28, “Americans fear[ed] that any traveler coming from West Africa might bring invisible viruses to their communities,” Garrett explained in Foreign Policy. “In the age of globalization, there is no simple way to bar viral entry across national borders,” she added. To minimize further contagion, she recommends the development of a rapid point-of-care diagnostic to identify the Ebola virus in a single droplet of blood. The test would serve as a device to screen airline passengers, who would then require a UN-authorized certificate of noninfection to proceed with their travels. Increased screening, she argued, “could put an end to prolonged quarantines of uninfected populations, airport fears, and talk of banning entire nations from traveling.” 6 A Letter From the President CFR Funding Underscores the Organization’s Independence Many of you will by now have seen the article from the September 7 edition of the New York Times on a number of think tanks receiving funding from foreign governments. I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate the policy of the Council on Foreign Relations on this and related matters. It is important to also keep in mind that CFR is unique—a hybrid that is a membership organization, think tank, and publisher. With regard to the think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations does not accept funding from foreign governments, a policy that has been in place since 2008. Additionally, CFR does not accept money from the U.S. government except for funds to cover some of the costs for six visiting scholars (five military fellows and one intelligence fellow) who are employees of the U.S. government and who spend an academic year at CFR in New York. These policies were put in place to maintain and underscore the organization’s independence in regards to its agenda and what is written and said by its fellows, authors, and speakers. CFR has diverse sources of funding. The $62 million annual operating budget can be broken down as follows: approximately 10% member dues, 14% annual fund, 24% endowment draw, 11% corporate, 23% grants, 13% Foreign Affairs revenue, 5% miscellaneous. Gifts to CFR are accepted on a case-by-case basis from individuals who are not U.S. citizens or corporations or foundations that are not based in the United States, including from companies participating in CFR’s The Chronicle, November 2014 Corporate Program or men and women on the Global Board of Advisors. The majority of this funding goes to general operating support; for those gifts earmarked for particular projects, CFR is transparent in listing the support. CFR’s conflict of interest policies call for strict independence from donors in all areas of our work. A full list of CFR donors can be found on the member website, and a print copy is available to anyone upon request. We are proud of the work produced at CFR and are committed to independent, nonpartisan research and scholarship. You will find a wide range of views and opinions from our scholars, on our website, in our meetings and conferences, and in the pages of Foreign Affairs. Our policy to decline government funding means we must forego certain sources of support in an increasingly competitive environment. By necessity doing so places a somewhat larger burden on our members. I hope and trust you will agree with us that this is well worth it. I welcome your reactions. Richard N. Haass President 7 Task Force Led by Petraeus and Zoellick Urges U.S. Leaders to Put North America First A new CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force report, North America: Time for a New Focus, asserts that elevating and prioritizing the U.S.-Canada-Mexico relationship offers the best opportunity for strengthening the United States and its place in the world. “It is time to put North America at the forefront of U.S. policy,” the Task Force report says. “The development and implementation of a strategy for U.S. economic, energy, security, environmental, and societal cooperation with its two neighbors can strengthen the United States at home and enhance its influence abroad.” Chaired by David H. Petraeus, retired U.S. Army general and chairman of the KKR Global Institute, and Robert B. Zoellick, former president of the World Bank Group and chairman of Goldman Sachs’s International Advisors, the Task Force is composed of a diverse and distinguished group of experts that includes former government officials, scholars, and others. The project is directed by Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies Shannon K. O’Neil. The Task Force proposes a comprehensive set of recommendations for deepening North American integration, concentrating on four pivotal areas—energy, economic competitiveness, security, and community. These include: Capitalizing on North America’s promising energy outlook. The North American countries need a regional energy strategy to strengthen the continent’s energy infrastructure, expand energy exports, The Chronicle, November 2014 support Mexico’s historic reforms, improve safety, and encourage harmonized policies to promote energy conservation and reduce carbon emissions. “For economic, environmental, and diplomatic reasons, the Task Force recommends that the U.S. government encourage increased energy connections with Canada and Mexico. The U.S. government should approve additional pipeline capacity, including the Keystone XL pipeline,” the report notes. Bolstering economic competitiveness through the freer movement of goods and services across borders. Upgrading infrastructure and policies across borders would interconnect national economies securely and efficiently. Recognizing trilateral economic interests, the United States should also include Canada and Mexico in its negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and other freetrade agreements. Strengthening security through a unified continental strategy. While working toward the goal of a unified security strategy for North America, the United States and Canada should support Mexican efforts to strengthen the democratic rule of law, dismantle criminal networks, contribute to the development of resilient and cohesive communities, and reduce arms smuggling and drug consumption. Fostering a North American community through comprehensive immigration reform, workforce development, and the 8 Task Force co-chairs David Petraeus and Robert Zoellick and project director Shannon O’Neil urge policymakers to prioritize the North American relationship at the report launch in New York. creation of a mobility accord to facilitate the movement of workers. “The Task Force strongly recommends the passage of comprehensive federal immigration reform that secures U.S. borders, prevents illegal entry, provides visas on the basis of economic need, invites talented and skilled people to settle in the United States, and offers a pathway to legalization for undocumented immigrants now in the United States.” The co-chairs and project director will present the report in Ottawa and Mexico City in November. The full text of the report is available at www.cfr.org/North_America_Task_Force. French- and Spanish-language editions are also available. Audio and video recordings of the New York and Washington, DC launch events can be found online at CFR’s Events page. For more information, please contact Chris Tuttle, director of the Independent Task Force Program, at [email protected]. The Chronicle, November 2014 Task Force Members Bernard W. Aronson, ACON Investments Jodi Hanson Bond, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Robert C. Bonner, the Sentinel HS Group, LLC Jason Eric Bordoff, Columbia University Timothy P. Daly, Western Union Jorge I. Domínguez, Harvard University Stephen E. Flynn, Northeastern University Gordon D. Giffin, McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP Neal R. Goins, Exxon Mobil Corporation Kenneth I. Juster, Warburg Pincus LLC Marie-Josée Kravis, Hudson Institute Jane Holl Lute, Council on CyberSecurity Jason Marczak, Atlantic Council Diana Natalicio, University of Texas at El Paso Shannon K. O’Neil, Council on Foreign Relations (project director) Maria Otero, Independent Consulting James W. Owens, Caterpillar, Inc. David H. Petraeus, KKR Global Institute (co-chair) Adrean Scheid Rothkopf, Millicom Clifford M. Sobel, Valor Capital Group James S. Taylor, Vianovo Robert B. Zoellick, Goldman Sachs & Co. (co-chair) 9 America in Decay By Francis Fukuyama “The U.S. political system has decayed over time because its traditional system of checks and balances has deepened and become increasingly rigid,” writes Fukuyama in his explanation of the sources of political rot eating away at Washington. He concludes on a somber note: “The depressing bottom line is that given how self-reinforcing the country’s political malaise is, and how unlikely the prospects for constructive incremental reform are, the decay of American politics will probably continue until some external shock comes along to catalyze a true reform coalition and galvanize it into action.” Crashing the Party In the September/October Issue “American politics today are marked by dysfunction, discontent, and ideological churn on both sides of the aisle,” write Gideon Rose and Jonathan Tepperman, the editor and managing editor, respectively, of Foreign Affairs, in their introduction to the package on the state of American politics. “Since the distraction and paralysis of the world’s hegemon has such obvious global significance, we decided to turn our focus inward, exploring the sources and contours of the American malaise.” The Chronicle, November 2014 By David Frum The Republican Party has grown older and more ideologically extreme, charges Frum, a senior editor at the Atlantic and a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. In order to start winning elections again, the GOP will have to change its ways. “Conservatives may not be optimistic by nature. But even they should at least appreciate that Americans have never had so much worth conserving,” he writes. Concludes Frum, “The liberal surge of the Obama years invites a conservative response, and a multiethnic, socially tolerant conservatism is waiting to take form.” 10 Halfway There By Michael Kazin “Since its earliest incarnations appeared nearly two-hundred years ago, the American left has pursued two overarching goals: expanding individual rights for people in historically subordinate roles . . . and creating a new economic and political order based on an equality of outcomes and motivated by a spirit of social solidarity.” Its success has been mixed, argues Kazin, the co-editor of Dissent magazine. On the one hand, “Homosexuals now serve openly in the U.S. military and can legally marry in at least nineteen states and the District of Columbia, and discrimination against them in other areas of public life is rapidly diminishing.” On the other, “In recent years, unions, widely viewed as collectivist, coercive, and class-bound, have had to repeatedly reestablish their right to exist and prove their ability to represent working people.” The Populist Threat to Liberal Democracy By Yasha Mounk The far-right political parties in Europe and the Tea Party movement in the United States have evolved in parallel, writes Mounk, a New America Foundation fellow. “Over the past two decades, populist movements in Europe and the United States have uprooted traditional party structures and focused ideas long regarded as extremist or unsavory onto the political agenda,” he contends. Yet the proliferation of these zealous factions has “represented . . . a populist turn—one that will exert significant influence on policy and opinion for decades to come.” The Chronicle, September/October 2014 Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault By John J. Mearsheimer Most Westerners have the Ukraine crisis backwards, argues Mearsheimer, a professor of international relations at the University of Chicago; Western provocation, not Russian aggression, is to blame. “The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West,” he writes, explaining Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea. Russia’s moves should have been predictable: “Imagine the American outrage if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico.” An Army to Defeat Assad By Kenneth Pollack “Syria is a hard one,” admits Pollack, of the Brookings Institution. “The arguments against the United States taking a more active role in ending the vicious three-year-old conflict there are almost perfectly balanced by those in favor of intervening, especially in the aftermath of the painful experiences of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.” But there is a feasible way to help: Pollack calls on the United States to recruit and arm a Syrian opposition force capable of defeating Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s troops and the militant Islamists also fighting the government. ForeignAffairs.com 11 Renewing America Scorecard: How to Halt Climbing U.S. Debt “By 2040, public debt is projected to top 110 percent [of GDP], equal to the highest levels reached during the Second World War,” warned Rebecca Strauss, associate director of CFR’s Renewing America Initiative in a new progress report and scorecard. “Absent any policy changes it will likely keep climbing afterward into uncharted territory for the United States.” The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has nearly grown to the Group of seven (G7) average, according to the scorecard. At its current rate, that ratio will be higher than all G7 countries except Japan by 2040. While other large wealthy countries have been retooling their entitlement programs, the United States has left Medicare and Social Security mostly untouched. Recent U.S. budget reductions have instead focused on discretionary spending, which goes toward areas such as education, infrastructure, and research and development—all of which constitute investments in future economic growth. Americans will have to make difficult choices to get the public debt load under control. Sequestration, which took effect in 2013, only affected government spending projected to decline as a share of GDP. Meanwhile, U.S. policymakers left cutting entitlements or increasing tax revenues largely off the table, despite the fact that entitlements will account for nearly all new federal spending in the future. “To slow debt growth to the rate of GDP growth (or a steady debt-to-GDP ratio) from today through 2040, changes to current policy would have to be dramatic: cut entitlements by 10 percent, cut discretionary spending by 23 percent, increase tax revenue by 6 percent, or some combination of the three,” Strauss added. “Adjustments to actually lower the debt-to-GDP ratio would be even more painful.” Infographic: Although U.S. debt as a share of GDP will be steady in the near term, it will skyrocket in the medium and long term to levels higher than average for peer countries. The Chronicle, November 2014 12 New Foreign Affairs Ebook Catalogues Evolving Palestinian-Israeli Violence The recent reconciliation deal between rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas opens a new chapter in the struggle between Israelis and Palestinians. As observers remark on the prospect of Fatah leading Gaza once more, Foreign Affairs has published a comprehensive ebook, Clueless in Gaza, which situates current developments in historical context and looks at what lies ahead. “The title references Aldous Huxley’s 1936 novel Eyeless in Gaza, a story about disillusionment and search for answers. It appropriately captures the situation because both sides lack good strategy, and their fighting leaves everyone worse off than before,” explained Foreign Affairs Editor Gideon Rose. Contributors to the collection’s twenty-one articles include two-time U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Daniel Byman, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and now CFR Senior Fellow Robert M. Danin, former Israel Defense Forces Brigadier General Michael Herzog, Washington Post Correspondent Yuval “If Israel implements Prime Minister Elizur, and former advisor to the late Palestinian Ariel Sharon’s plan to withdraw from leader Yasser Arafat Mark Perry. the Gaza Strip, Palestinian society The anthology is divided into four sections: will fragment even more, lose the “After Oslo” (2003–2006), commentary on the benefit of unified representation, failure of the Oslo peace talks; “Gaza Under and very possibly lapse into bloody Hamas” (2006–2012), a retrospective on Hamas’s infighting. The Israelis will not get the rise to power; “The Fire This Time” (2014), reflec- security they want and will be forced to tions on the violence of summer 2014; and “What confront a Hamas empowered by the Now?” (2014 and Beyond), potential long-term PA’s [Palestinian Authority] collapse.” strategies for conflict management. —Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Clueless in Gaza is available on Kindle, iTunes, and Survey Research, 2004 other ereader platforms, as well as print-on-demand through Amazon.com. For more information, please visit www.foreignaffairs.com/cluelessingaza. The Chronicle, November 2014 ForeignAffairs.com 13 Back to School With CFR Education The Council’s fifth annual Back-to-School event drew three hundred students and professors from universities in the tristate area, including Columbia, New York University, and West Point, among others. The highlight of the event was a conversation on the Sunni-Shia divide with NPR Foreign Correspondent Deborah Amos and dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University Vali R. Nasr. The discussion was moderated by CFR.org Editor Robert McMahon. The event was part of CFR’s ongoing educational outreach efforts to foster a deeper understanding of international relations and the role of the United States in the world. Irina A. Faskianos, vice president, National Program and Outreach, presented The Chronicle, November 2014 CFR’s online gateway to the latest tools and resources for teaching and learning about U.S. foreign policy. The site offers an expanded menu of teaching notes to accompany select CFR books, reports, and meetings as well as issue packages designed to assist professors and teachers in developing course syllabi and curricula. The notes include discussion questions, classroom activities, essay prompts, and supplemental reading lists. Nearly fifty teaching notes address topics such as the civil war in Syria, sustainable energy development in the Arctic, the crisis in Ukraine, child marriage, and democratization in Nigeria, all of which are available free of charge at www.cfr.org/education. 14 Spotlight on Child Migration Tens of thousands of unaccompanied minors, mostly from Central America, arrived in the United States illegally in recent months, adding severe stress to the U.S. immigration system. The influx—nearly twice as many migrants as last year—revived a rancorous national debate on immigration policy, riled critics of President Barack Obama’s proposed immigration reforms, and stretched social and legal services thin. “A lethal and tragic mix of gang violence, drug wars, weak judiciaries, corrupt security institutions, grinding poverty and inequality, and the failure of the American political system” underpins the crisis, Senior Fellow and Director for Latin America Studies Julia E. Sweig wrote in Brazilian newspaper Folha de São Paulo. The United States lacks the comprehensive immigration law that current and previous administrations promised, she added, and cited other sources driving the crisis, notably the black market for child trafficking in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. In July, Obama requested that Congress amend existing legislation, to grant the Department of Homeland Security the authority to promptly deport many of these children. In the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Human Rights Mark P. Lagon and Research Associate Patrick McCormick warned that adapting immigration policy to the volume of children crossing the border should not compromise human rights: “Unaccompanied children have special needs . . . and therefore authority for their custody and care should not reside with those charged with border enforcement. . . . Lawmakers and the wider American public must not permit the desire for efficiency in processing immigration cases to obscure the fundamental dignity of these children, nor their right to due process under both national and international law,” they urged. CFR.org’s Backgrounder, “The U.S. Child Migrant Influx,” is a useful tool for navigating the debate, detailing the factors driving young migrants from Central America—violence, poverty, and human smuggling—as well as the legal framework that dictates their fate and the actions U.S. lawmakers have taken to manage the crisis. Migrant children asleep in a holding cell at a U.S. Customs and Border Protection processing facility in Texas. (Eric Gay/Pool/Courtesy Reuters) The Chronicle, November 2014 15 New Policy Innovation Memos Policy Innovation Memoranda present bold thinking on pressing foreign policy problems, and aim to shape the public debate with hardhitting, innovative policy ideas. How to Make Fue l S ub s idy Reform Succeed “Fuel subsidies are a scourge,” Senior Fellow and Director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative Isobel Coleman asserts in her recent memo. Costing half a trillion dollars a year globally, subsidies “distort markets, strain government budgets, encourage overconsumption, foster corruption, and harm the environment while doing little to remedy inequality or stimulate development.” The solution “hinges on an effective communications strategy that builds domestic support by clearly articulating the goals and benefits of reform.” Since most governments are unable to provide the marketing skills to implement public awareness campaigns, Coleman proposes the creation of a Global Subsidy Elimination Campaign within the World Bank. The public-private partnership would serve as a central knowledge hub and work with governments “to execute country-specific communications programs that would build the case for fuel subsidy reform among citizens.” De signing a Coali t ion of Medicine s Regulat or s “Globalization has transformed the marketplace for medicines in recent decades, giving rise to new threats, including the poor traceability of global supply chains, counterfeit and substandard medicines, and antibacterial resistance,” write Senior Fellow and Director of the International Institutions The Chronicle, November 2014 and Global Governance Program Stewart M. Patrick and Research Associate Jeffrey A. Wright. They describe how the expanding drug market has resulted in a globalized supply chain in which medicines may be “processed, packaged, sold, and resold multiple times before reaching consumers.” Patrick and Wright call for a coalition to oversee international drug supply chains, which would comprise the U.S. Federal Drug Administration and its counterparts in other countries, as well as private firms and nongovernmental organizations to serve as observers or affiliate members. Br eak ing t he S ta l emat e in U . S . - ROK Nu c l ear ta l k s The Republic of Korea (ROK) wants the United States to grant it the right to enrich and reprocess U.S.-origin nuclear fuels, but U.S. reluctance to comply with South Korea’s request has slowed otherwise smooth efforts to renew the existing U.S.-ROK nuclear cooperation agreement. In his memo, Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy Scott A. Snyder contends that the impasse strains Washington’s relations with Seoul just as rising regional tensions make cooperation essential. He suggests extending the agreement until the conclusion of a joint study on methods to handle spent fuel that ends in 2021. “That would give the United States time to develop what South Korea is looking for: a consistent framework for nuclear cooperation with states that have advanced nuclear power industries and are committed to nonproliferation.” 16 New Fellows at CFR N e w Yor k Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow—Barbara Demick is joining CFR after completing a seven-year tour as the Los Angeles Times bureau chief in Beijing. Previously, she was assigned in Korea for the newspaper; earlier for the Philadelphia Inquirer, she covered the Middle East and Eastern Europe. She is the author of Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea, which won the UK’s Samuel Johnson Prize for nonfiction and was a finalist for the National Book Award and National Book Critics Circle Award, and of Logavina Street: Life and Death in a Sarajevo Neighborhood. National Intelligence Fellow—Deborah A. McDonald most recently was assigned as a senior geospatial intelligence officer at the National GeospatialIntelligence Agency (NGA) in Springfield, Virginia. She is the lead human geographer and provides NGA with expertise on human geography tradecraft, data development, and international production. She has held various assignments at NGA, including NGA liaison duties at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo. She is a graduate of City College and Lehman College in New York. Distinguished Fellow—Lord Mervyn King is former governor and chief economist for the Bank of England, and was previously a distinguished visiting fellow at CFR. He was governor of the bank and chairman of the monetary and financial policy committees from 2003 to 2013, where he helped shape UK monetary policy during the global economic recession. Previously, King was deputy governor from 1998 to 2003, and served as chief economist and executive director from 1991 to 1998. He was also a nonexecutive director of the bank from 1990 to 1991. King is a professor of economics and law at the Stern and Law Schools at New York University. He received a master’s degree in economics from King’s College, Cambridge University and was a Kennedy Scholar at Harvard University. Military Fellow—Captain Pat DeQuattro, U.S. Coast Guard, most recently served as executive director to the deputy commandant for mission support, where he was responsible for all facets of support for Coast Guard human capital, engineering, acquisitions, and information technology programs. DeQuattro is a graduate of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, the University of Illinois, the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College seminar program, and the RAND Corporation’s Federal Executive Fellowship program. The Chronicle, November 2014 17 Military Fellow—Colonel Samuel C. Hinote, U.S. Air Force, commanded the Eighth Fighter Wing at Kunsan Air Base in the Republic of Korea, where he was responsible for over three-thousand U.S. and Korean personnel at a forward-deployed base. He received his PhD in military strategy from Air University and is also a graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy, the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, the Air Command and Staff College, and the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Military Fellow—Colonel Stephen E. Liszewski, U.S. Marine Corps, recently commanded the Eleventh Marine Regiment at Camp Pendleton, California. In this position, he was responsible for all artillery capability and fire support coordination in the First Marine Division. He also deployed with the I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) in support of Operation Enduring Freedom and deployed as a battalion commander in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Colonel Liszewski is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, the U.S. Marine Corps Amphibious Warfare School, the Australian Command and Staff College, and the U.S. Naval War College. Military Fellow—Captain Robert A. Newson, U.S. Navy, was assistant chief of staff for plans, assessments, and strategy at the Naval Special Warfare Command. He was commissioned through the University of Kansas NROTC in 1989 and completed Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL training the same year. On graduation, he was assigned to SEAL Team Five, and has been deployed extensively to the Pacific, Africa, Middle East, and the Balkans. He is a graduate of the Naval War College and Naval Postgraduate School. Captain Newson is also a PhD candidate at the University of San Diego School of Leadership and Educational Sciences. Military Fellow—Colonel Michael W. Rauhut, U.S. Army, served as the Assistant Chief of Staff, International Security Assistance Force in Kabul, Afghanistan, where he was responsible for ensuring that the direction and guidance of the commander and chief of staff were understood, communicated, coordinated, and executed by the multinational and joint staff. His previous assignments include service in the Second, Third, and Fourth Infantry Divisions and a range of other operational, institutional, and combat assignments. Rauhut is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, the Naval Postgraduate School, and the Naval War College. The Chronicle, November 2014 18 Wa s hington , DC Senior Fellow for Global Governance—Miles Kahler will research and write on the role of emerging economies in global governance. At CFR, Kahler was previously a senior fellow for international political economy from 1994 to 1996, an international affairs fellow in 1984, and has been a life member since 1991. Kahler writes on international politics and political economy and is a member of the editorial boards of International Organization and Global Governance. He also serves as a distinguished professor at American University’s School of International Service. Kahler earned an AB summa cum laude from Harvard University, an MPhil from Oxford University, and a PhD from Harvard University. Senior Fellow, Center for Geoeconomic Studies—Jennifer M. Harris was a former member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, where she advised secretaries Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Kerry on geoeconomic issues. At CFR, she will focus on global markets, geoeconomics, energy security, and trade and investment. Harris earned her law degree from Yale Law School and her masters of philosophy in international relations from Oxford University, where she was a Rhodes scholar. She studied economics and political science at Wake Forest University. International Affairs Fellow—Benjamin Brake is a foreign affairs analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the U.S. Department of State. He previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the U.S. Senate Office of the Legislative Counsel. He received his BA from Vassar College, his MSc from the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, his JD from Cornell Law School, and his MA and PhD from Cornell University. Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow—Adam Mount’s research is on the force structure necessary for contemporary deterrence and the politics of nuclear disarmament. Previously, he worked on nuclear elimination contingencies at the RAND Corporation. His work is forthcoming in the Nonproliferation Review, and has appeared in Intelligence and National Security and Democracy: A Journal of Ideas. He recently received a PhD from Georgetown University. Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow—Caitlin Talmadge is an assistant professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, where her research and teaching focus on U.S. defense policy and strategy, civil-military relations, nuclear proliferation, and Persian Gulf security issues. Previously, she worked at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Brookings Institution, and as a consultant to the Office of Net Assessment at the U.S. Department of Defense. She holds an AB from Harvard College and a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Chronicle, November 2014 19 CFR Is Pleased to Announce Its 2014–2015 International Affairs Fellows Hosted by O t he r I n s t i t u t ion s Melissa G. Dalton, Center for Strategic and International Studies Kristin Fabbe, U.S. Department of State Van A. Jackson, Center for a New American Security Scott Moore, U.S. Department of State Nathaniel Myers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Bart M.J. Szewczyk, U.S. Department of State Ariella Viehe, Center for American Progress I n ternat iona l Affai r s Fe llows in Japan , s ponsored by H i tachi , Ltd . Jennifer Friedman, Meiji Institute for Global Affairs Andrei Greenawalt, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry Marta L. McLellan Ross, Japan Institute for International Affairs Daryl G. Press, National Institute for Defense Studies Brent D. Sadler, National Institute of Defense Studies I n ternat iona l Affai r s Fe llows in Nu c l ear Sec u r i t y, sponsored by t he S tan ton Fo u ndat ion Austin Long, U.S. Department of Defense Sharon Weiner, White House and U.S. Department of Defense Reminder, Call for Applications: 2015–2016 Fellowship Programs CFR is seeking applicants for two upcoming fellowship competitions. The application deadlines are: ■■ ■■ Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship: December 15 IAF in Nuclear Security, sponsored by the Stanton Foundation: January 16 Program details, eligibility requirements, and application instructions can be found online at www.cfr.org/fellowships. For more information, contact [email protected]. The Chronicle, November 2014 20 Now In Paperback: The Power Surge by Michael A. Levi In a new epilogue to the paperback edition, Levi chronicles developments in the energy sector, from the accelerating boom in U.S. oil and gas production and the resulting debates to breakthroughs in renewable energy and electric cars. Embracing the best of both old and new energy sources, he believes, is still the strongest strategy for success. Teaching notes for the book can be found at www.cfr.org/education. For more analysis on the science and foreign policy surrounding climate change, energy, and nuclear security, read Levi’s blog, Energy, Climate, and Climate, at blogs.cfr.org/levi. Net Politics Blog: Decoding Digital Governance Adam Segal and other experts from CFR’s Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program investigate the effect of information and communication technologies on security, privacy, and international affairs. Net Politics analyzes the growing importance and complexity of Internet governance, digital policy, cybersecurity, and cyber warfare. Read more at blogs.cfr.org/cyber. CFR’s 2014 Annual Report Available Online CFR members can view and download the 2014 Annual Report at www.cfr.org/about/annual_report. The digital version is also available for the Kindle, Nook, iPad, iPhone, Android, and other devices. Bound print-on-demand copies can be purchased on Amazon. For further information, contact publications at 212.434.9613 or [email protected]. The Chronicle, November 2014 21 The Chronicle — November 2014 Cover photos, left to right: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto www.cfr.org/member 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 fax 212.434.9800 1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 tel 202.509.8400 fax 202.509.8490
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