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Kommer tekniken att lösa alla våra problem?
Trafiksäkerhetskonferens
Riksdagen 27 Maj 2015
Ingrid Skogsmo
SAFER presentation for
Japan
1
Vision
SAFER provides excellent multi‐
disciplinary research and collaboration to eliminate fatalities and serious injuries, making Swedish society, academy and industry a world leader in vehicle and traffic safety.
33 partners in collaboration
Society
Trafikverket
Transportstyrelsen
Västra Götalandsregionen
Göteborgs stad
Academy & Institutes
Chalmers University of Technology
University of Gothenburg Halmstad University
KTH
Umeå University
Acreo
SP
Swerea IVF
Swerea SICOMP
TÖI
Viktoria institute
VTI
University of Borås University of Skövde
University West
Industry
AB Volvo
Autoliv
ÅF
Cycleurope
Folksam
If
Lindholmen Science Park
Scandinavian Automotive Suppliers
Scania
Sweco
Volvo Car Corporation
IRezQ
Malmeken
Trivector
Kan tekniken lösa alla problem?
Road transport deaths due to road accidents in 2010
Worldwide: 1.3 million deaths Source: WHO 2013 and World Bank/IHME 2014
varje dag…
MONITORING A DECADE
• UN GA resolution 54/255
in 2010 called for a
Decade of Action for
Road Safety (2011–
2020).
• Status reports to be used
as a monitoring tool for
the Decade.
Kan tekniken lösa alla problem?
Plan for the Decade: 5 Pillars (left) and 5 risk factors (right)
• Speed
• Drunk–driving
• Not wearing motorcycle helmets
• Not wearing seat‐belts
• Not using child restraints 4‐6‐2015
8
MAIN SOCIETAL
TRENDS / SCENARIOS
Method
25+ reports
I Skogsmo / PROS Workshop 22 Jan 2013
Main trends
© PROS consortium 2012
9
Vi blir fler!
WORLD
8+ bn 2030
7 bn 2012
738 M 2010
Source: UNPD; Statistics Sweden,
f thi
i
587 ! 599 i l Statistic Yearbook, 2012
I Skogsmo / PROS Workshop 22 Jan
2013
741 M 2030
“Europe”
10
10
Vi blir äldre!
Utvecklade länder
Population aged > 65
2030 (vs 2010):
Världen
+ 5 år
World:
Utvecklings
länder
12%
(8%)
“Europe”: 22% (16%)
Källa: UNPD; World Bank
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Urbaniseringen ökar!
Megacities; > 10 M
+ London
Paris
Moscow
Istanbul
2011
!
"
2025
Select year: 1960 1980 2011 2025
12
Klimatförändringarna inger stor oro
Har vi någon
nyare bild?
EU reduction
target:
- 30% 2030
- 80% 2050
-
(from 1990)
13
Personer och samhället allt mer ”uppkopplat”
Även denna
bild känns
lite gammal
–
Pratar man inte 150 B nu?
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MAIN SOCIETAL
TRENDS / SCENARIOS
 POPULATION GROWTH
Method
 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
25+ reports
Grad av
konfidens
 Mega & fast-growing cities
 Urbanization
Main trends
 Climate change, CO2, environmental
 More costly energy & resource
 Increased connectivity
 Economic growth
 Globalization
I Skogsmo / PROS Workshop 22 Jan 2013
 Life style changes
© PROS consortium 2012
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Trendernas input till trafiksäkerhets‐systemet





Äldre personen som trafikant
Uppkopplade individen – och tingen
Växande staden
Diversifierade trafik‐mixen
Emissionmålens effekter
 Oskyddade trafikanters säkerhet
 Automatiserade system, förarstöd, uppkoppling
 Teknologin hos nya fordon – speciellt
elfordon, lättvikt, alternativa bränslen
 Stadsplanering
 Säker väginfrastruktur
 Trafiksystem och intermodalitet
 Trafiksäkerhetsanalys och metoder
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Kan tekniken lösa alla problem?
18
19
Sources: CARE 2013; Road accidents in India 2011; STRADA 2013; WHO 2013
Trafiksäkerhet … VARFÖR?
 Folkhälsofråga! – Sverige & globalt
 Affärsmöjlighet
 4+ världstrender!  100+ personer – olika discipliner
 45+ organisationer:
– Samhällsaktörer
– Bredd av företag – inkl SMF
– Akademi & Institut
 4 workshops
Idéer & kunskap
Omsätta kunskap
Tillämpning
Innovationsuppslag
Problem‐
områdens mognadsgrad
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Verktyg för gemensam förståelse
 Naturalistiska studier
– Datainsamling i verklig trafik
– Trafikanters vanliga dagliga aktiviteter
 Varför?
–
–
–
–
–
Förstå orsaker till olyckor och incidenter
Undersöka trafikanters beteende
Prova intelligenta system
Samverkan med infrastruktur mm Kamera
Tröghets‐mätning
Gyro
Broms‐kraft‐mätning
Broms‐kraft‐mätning
Logger
Enkelt interface (HMI)
Welcome to the
3rd International Cycling Safety Conference November 18‐19, 2014
Lindholmen Science Park, Gothenburg, Sweden
www.icsc2014.eu
Driver Behaviour
Driver
only
Assisted
Partly
automated
Highly
automated
Fully
automated
Utmaningar
 Tekniska
 Andra
Source KPMG & CAR
TECHNICAL CHALLENGES
 Improvement in
– reliability of driving under adverse conditions
– awareness of surroundings
– vehicle positioning accuracy
– handling of system
malfunctions
– security (of wireless communication) Other challenges:
EVALUATION
In real‐
world traffic Under long period of time
Factors requiring evaluation Realistic simulations
With many
vehicles
Other challenges:
TRANSFER OF CONTROL
Situation and context dependency
Differences between vehicles
Behavioral changes
32
Other challenges:
INTERACTION WITH SURROUNDING TRAFFIC
Conventional vehicles
Other automated vehicles
Vulnerable road users
33
Other challenges:
SOCIETAL IMPACTS
What behavior is acceptable?
How about norms and unwritten rules?
New services?
34
Aktuella projekt
 Cykelsäkerhet
 Förarbeteende
 Automatiserad körning
35
Kan tekniken lösa alla problem?
i
Borderless research to save lives
[email protected]
www.chalmers.se/safer
SAFER presentation for
Japan
37