INSIDE U.S. OIL Thursday, November 6 , 2014 Futures (Front Month) NYMEX light crude Close Net Change Pct Change U.S. Cash Crude $78.68 $1.49 1.89 NYMEX RBOB gasoline $2.09 $0.01 0.42 NYMEX heating oil $2.44 $0.00 0.16 $82.95 $0.13 0.16 $729.50 $3.25 0.45 Brent/WTI spread -$4.27 $1.36 31.85 Reuters 321 Crack Spread $13.89 -$1.30 9.36 ICE Brent crude ICE gas oil CHART OF THE DAY Click on the chart for full-size image Price Net Change Differential Diff Change Light Louisiana Sweet $81.76 $1.43 3.13 Poseidon $76.51 $1.26 1.85 $0.10 Thunder Horse $79.51 $1.46 1.10 -$0.07 U.S. Cash Crude Products (Values in Cents/Gal) NYH Prompt Heating oil NYH RBOB USG ULSD USG Prompt Gasoline Price 226.25 212.27 239.25 204.27 -$0.02 Net Change Differential Diff Change -4.53 1.61 -2.03 4.11 -18.00 2.75 -4.25 -1.00 4.00 0.25 0.75 4.25 JOHN KEMP ON MARKETS COLUMN– U.S. crude export controls are crumbling In the three months ending in August, the United States and Canada swapped a record amount of crude oil with each other, one of the more bizarre consequences of outdated U.S. export controls. John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Click here to read the rest of his column TODAY’S MARKETS MARKET NEWS ECB to wait for stimulus to sink in, Draghi style in limelight Gunmen storm Libya's El Sharara oilfield, shut down production BHP's U.S. oil export plan met by caution in Asia U.S. oil stockpiles rise while products decline - EIA Lacking drilling prospects, Statoil takes rigs out of fleet Emboldened republicans to strike early on Keystone pipeline approval Australia's Woodside opens door to resolving E.Timor gas dispute India's ONGC Videsh eyes stake in Tullow Oil's Africa assets - source REFINERY NEWS Fire reported at Rosneft's Saratov refinery OIL: Brent crude oil was steady below $83 a barrel as apparent momentum towards a deal between Iran and world powers over its nuclear programme and higher U.S. inventories offset supply shocks in the Middle East. "If sanctions on Iran are eased, one needs to review once again the supply and demand balance," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix, a Swiss energy consultancy. FOREX: The dollar steadied after hitting a seven-year high against the yen as traders sold into a steep rally ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later in the session and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. "It's always a little odd when you start rolling out programmes on top of others -- it smacks of panic and that's certainly not what the ECB would want to portray," said Neil Mellor, an FX strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London. GLOBAL MARKETS: The euro edged higher and European stocks pulled back as investors waited to see what message ECB chief Mario Draghi will send after the European Central Bank's monthly meeting, following another run of poor euro zone data. "The market feels great," said Nick Lawson Managing Director in Global Markets Equity at Deutsche Bank. U.S. EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY (EST) U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS (0830) BP Whiting, Ind., refinery restarting coker - sources U.S. LABOR COSTS Q3 (0830) Exxon Torrance refinery plans Feb FCCU overhaul – BEYOND THE HEADLINES sources Shell plans April shutdown of crude unit at Sarnia refinery Breakingviews-Saudis drop gavel on OPEC confab three weeks early OIL ANALYTICS: ASIA SWAPS FORWARD CURVE INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 OIL ANALYTICS: ASIA SWAPS FORWARD CURVE (0830 GMT) ICE BRENT FUTURES FORWARD ICE Brent Fut. Fwd Curve 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M DUBAI SWAPS FORWARD CURVE 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 87.15 86.00 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M Dubai Swaps Fwd Curve 84.00 82.00 .12 80.00 .12 1Y 1M 1M 2M FO180 FOB CARGO SG FWD CURVE FO180 FOB Cargo SG Fwd Curve 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 85.29 84.00 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 1Y 1M FO3.5% BARGES ARA FORWARD CURVE 6M - 6M Yield 476.75 475.00 FO3.5% Barges ARA Fwd Curve 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 448.50 445.00 440.00 470.00 435.00 465.00 430.00 .12 .12 6M 1M 2M FO380 FOB CARGO SG FORWARD CURVE FO380 FOB Cargo SG Fwd Curve 3M 4M 5M 6M Naphtha CFR Japan Fwd Curve 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 469.75 470.00 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 1Y 1M 6M - 6M Yield 709.25 690.00 .12 .12 4M 9M 10M 700.00 460.00 3M 8M NAPHTHA CFR JAPAN FORWARD CURVE 465.00 1M 2M 7M 6M 1Y 1M 2 INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 OIL ANALYTICS: ASIA SWAPS FORWARD CURVE (0830 GMT) NAPHTHA CIF NWE FORWARD CURVE Naphtha CIF NWE Fwd Curve 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M NAPHTHA FOB SG FWD CURVE 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 688.25 680.00 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M Naphtha FOB SG Fwd Curve 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 76.00 76.00 670.00 75.00 660.00 650.00 .12 74.00 .12 1Y 1M 1M 2M ICE GO FUT. FWD CURVE 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 1Y 1M GO FOB CARGO SG FORWARD CURVE ICE GO Fut. Fwd Curve 6M - 6M Yield 723.00 GO FOB Cargo SG Fwd Curve 1M - 1Y 1M Yield 99.69 99.00 722.70 98.00 97.00 722.40 722.25 .12 .12 6M 1M 2M JET FUEL FOB CARGO SG FWD Jet Fuel FOB Cargo SG Fwd Curve 1M - 1Y Yield 100.24 100.00 99.00 98.00 .12 1M 2M 5M 6M 7M 11M 1Y 3 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 1Y 1M INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 MARKET NEWS ECB to wait for stimulus to sink in, Draghi style in limelight Gunmen storm Libya's El Sharara oilfield, shut down production FRANKFURT, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is set to stick to the policy path laid out over the summer when it meets on Thursday, waiting for its stimulus to unfold before considering further steps. The November policy meeting takes place against a backdrop of meager growth prospects for the euro zone and mounting discomfort among Governing Council members over ECB President Mario Draghi's leadership style. Reuters reported on Tuesday that national central bankers in the euro area plan to challenge Draghi over what they see as his secretive management style and erratic communication. But little to no action is expected on further stimulus. To keep the euro zone from slipping into deflation, the ECB has started pumping more money into the banking system through purchases of private debt and offers of long-term loans, aiming to boost its balance sheet by up to 1 trillion euros. BENGHAZI/TUNIS, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Gunmen seized Libya's major El Sharara oilfield, looting equipment and shooting as frightened workers sought shelter, oil sources said on Wednesday, in another blow to the country's oil industry which has been subjected to protests and militia blockades. It was unclear exactly what happened at the field, which at maximum capacity produces about 340,000 barrels per day. It is Libya's biggest operational field, located in the remote south where rival tribes have clashed since Muammar Gaddafi was ousted three years ago. The closure is a blow to government efforts to keep oil production isolated from the spreading chaos in the North African country, where two prime ministers, parliaments and army chiefs of staff compete for control. The closure will lower the OPEC member's oil production, last reported at around 800,000 bpd, by at least 200,000 bpd. BHP's U.S. oil export plan met by caution in Asia U.S. oil stockpiles rise while products decline - EIA SINGAPORE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Asian buyers of condensate said they would be wary of taking cargoes of the ultra-light oil that BHP Billiton Ltd plans to export from the Gulf of Mexico without explicit approval from the U.S. government. Anglo-Australian mining firm BHP Billiton, one of the largest producers in the Eagle Ford shale patch in southern Texas, is testing the limits of an increasingly contentious ban on foreign sales of U.S. crudes. BHP said this week it "took the necessary time to thoroughly examine the issues" and determined its lightly processed ultralight Eagle Ford oil met the legal criteria for exports. Potential Asian buyers of the BHP oil, however, said they would be cautious about buying any cargoes of U.S. condensate without a clear ruling from the government there. Nov 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude stocks rose but less than forecast last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories edged up 460,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 31, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.2 million barrels. U.S. crude imports fell 426,000 barrels per day. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 551,000 barrels, EIA said. The spread between the front-month contracts of WTI and Brent were at about $5 a barrel at around 1555 GMT. U.S. crude futures traded up more than $2 at above $79 a barrel while Brent gained over $1 to above $84. Lacking drilling prospects, Statoil takes rigs out of fleet Emboldened republicans to strike early on Keystone pipeline approval OSLO, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Norwegian energy firm Statoil idled two drilling rigs on Thursday due to high costs and lack of work, as it continues to scale back operations when a year ago it was paying near record rates to secure drilling capacity. The firm is cutting capital expenditure, delaying or cancelling projects to save cash after a ten-year spending spree and a nearly 30 percent fall in crude prices since June. Statoil said it suspended a Transocean and a Songa Offshore rig until the end of the year and may extend those suspension as it seeks drilling prospects. Oil firms paid more than $600,000 per day for top specification deepwater rigs last year but rates have dipped under $400,000 recently. The market is struggling with overcapacity as speculative, uncontracted vessels, ordered during the boom times, are delivered. WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Senate Republicans will charge ahead early in 2015 with a bill to approve the longstalled Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, a move that would back President Barack Obama into a corner and set the tone for how the party taking control of Congress will govern the next two years. The $8 billion project would deliver heavy Canadian oil sands crude from Alberta to Nebraska and make it easier to deliver oil from North Dakota’s Bakken region to the U.S. Gulf Coast. It has languished for six years awaiting presidential approval, which is needed because the pipeline crosses a national border. Legislation earlier this year to approve the pipeline in a proposed end-run around the administration already had an estimated 57 votes in the 100-member Senate, and is now thought to have a filibuster-proof 61 votes after Republican gains in Tuesday's mid-term elections. In addition, Republican Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota, who has authored several Keystone bills in the past, will propose a new bill for Congress to use the Foreign Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution to green light the pipeline without the need for presidential approval. 4 INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 MARKET NEWS (Continued) Australia's Woodside opens door to resolving E.Timor gas dispute India's ONGC Videsh eyes stake in Tullow Oil's Africa assets - source TOKYO, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Australia's Woodside Petroleum is in talks with East Timor on building an onshore gas plant, potentially removing one of the major barriers to developing gas fields that could provide billions of dollars to one of the world's poorest countries. Another major obstacle is a dispute between East Timor and its wealthy neighbour Australia on sharing revenue from the Greater Sunrise fields, which lie between the two countries. Both nations have said they are working to resolve the decadeslong row but it's not clear how long they will take. Woodside Chief Executive Peter Coleman said partners on the Greater Sunrise project, which remains undeveloped 40 years after the gas fields were discovered, were talking to the East Timor government and the discussions included the possibility of building an onshore liquefied natural gas plant in East Timor. His comment, in an interview with Reuters, was the first public confirmation that the Greater Sunrise partners are not completely wedded to building a floating LNG plant, which has long been their preferred option and which has been opposed by the East Timor government. NEW DELHI, Nov 6 (Reuters) - India's ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, is looking to buy a stake in the assets of Africa-focused exploration company Tullow Oil Plc , a source with direct knowledge of matter said. India, the world's fourth biggest oil consumer, has charged state oil firms with acquiring assets overseas to improve the security of its energy supplies. The country imports about 80 percent of its crude needs. ONGC Videsh aims to get 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its overseas assets by 2018, compared with about 167,000 bpd produced from overseas holdings in the fiscal year to March 2014, ONGC's chairman said in October. To meet its objective the company is looking at acquisitions, preferably of producing assets, in politically less risky countries. Tullow Oil declined to comment to Reuters when asked if it was in talks with ONGC or others on a stake sale. REFINERY NEWS Fire reported at Rosneft's Saratov refinery Exxon Torrance refinery plans Feb FCCU overhaul – sources MOSCOW, Nov 6 (Reuters) - A fire broke out at a pumping unit at Saratov oil refinery located in Russia's Volga river region and owned by Rosneft, Emergencies Ministry said on Thursday, adding that the fire was extinguished. The local unit of the ministry said on its website it had received a call about the fire at the 120,000 barrels-per-day plant at 0556 local time (0256 GMT). A probe into the incident has been launched and no one was hurt, it said. Rosneft declined immediate comments. HOUSTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil plans to overhaul the 100,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracking unit at its 149,500 bpd Torrance, California, refinery in February, said sources familiar with the refinery's plans. The work is expected to take at least a month to complete, the sources said. Shell plans April shutdown of crude unit at Sarnia refinery BP Whiting, Ind., refinery restarting coker - sources HOUSTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - BP Plc was restarting the 102,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) coking unit on Wednesday at its 413,500 bpd Whiting, Indiana, refinery, said sources familiar with operations at the refinery. The coker shut down overnight, the sources said. The shutdown was unplanned and refinery officials were attempting to determine the cause of the shutdown. Energy industry intelligence service Genscape said decreased activity was seen on the unit on Tuesday. A BP spokesman declined to discuss operations at the refinery. A coking unit refines residual crude into feedstocks or converts the gunky oil into petroleum coke, which can be used as a coal substitute. NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell plans to shut one of two crude units at its 70,000-barrel-per-day refinery for 45 days in April, a person familiar with the operations said. The 35,000-bpd crude unit is being shut down in order to replace the desalter, which removes salt from crude oil, the person said. The shutdown is expected to begin on April 1, but could be postponed a few weeks depending on the market, the person said. A company spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment. 5 INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 BEYOND THE HEADLINES COLUMN-U.S. crude export controls are crumbling ucts refined from it end up. Refiners in both the United States and Canada can export gasoline, diesel, home heating fuel and jet fuel almost anywhere in the world without any restrictions. CRUMBLING CONTROLS In the words of the 1979 Export Administration Act, "it is the policy of the United States to use export controls ... to restrict the export of goods where necessary to protect the domestic economy form the excessive drain of scarce materials and to reduce the serious inflationary impact of foreign demand" (Section 3(2)(C)). But if that is the purpose of the crude export controls, they are both failing and unnecessary. The ban has become a sort of leaky dam. In August 2014, the United States produced 8.6 million b/d of crude (including condensates). But it exported 390,000 b/d of crude, as well as 1.3 million b/d of diesel, 400,000 b/d of gasoline, 200,000 b/d of jet fuel, 330,000 b/d of heavy fuel oil and 550,000 b/d of petroleum coke. All told, crude and product exports from the United States amounted to more than half of total domestic crude production. Given the law of one price, U.S. consumers and businesses cannot be protected from international price fluctuations when so much crude and products is already being sent abroad. Even the remaining restrictions are beginning to crumble. Two companies have received permission from the U.S. government to export minimally processed condensates, in a controversial ruling earlier this year by the Commerce Department. Now a third company, BHP Billiton, relying on those earlier rulings as a precedent, is moving to export condensates without securing prior clearance, in effect daring the government to commence enforcement proceedings ("New oil shipment shows cracks in U.S. export ban," WSJ, Nov. 4). Consumers and businesses in North America already pay international prices for refined fuels (adjusted by the cost of transport) -- as shown in a recent series of studies by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and private consultants. So the idea that the U.S. crude export ban is reserving scarce petroleum supplies for consumers and businesses in the United States (and Canada) or protecting them from price increases is simply wrong. TRANSATLANTIC PARTNERS? The main effect of the remaining crude export controls is to distort trade in crude oil and refined products (as well as creating an enormous amount of lucrative work for lawyers). The United States and Canada have now created in practice what they have long had in theory: a free trade area in crude oil. But like other regional free trade agreements, this one discriminates against trading partners outside the area. In effect, the export controls divert U.S. crude towards Canada when it might be more profitable and more efficient to sell it to refiners elsewhere. The European Union, where refineries are particularly disadvantaged by the export ban, has begun to press the United States for it to be lifted as part of an eventual Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership agreement. "I think unquestionably there will be pressure internally in the U.S. as well as externally from others like Europe, who should be putting much more pressure on the U.S. than they are quite frankly" to ease the ban, Ian Taylor, the head of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, told Reuters in an interview earlier this week. "There's no doubt there's going to be more and more lobbying for the free flow of crude oil," he added ("U.S. oil patch still Klondike for world's biggest traders", Nov. 5). TIME FOR CONGRESS TO ACT In the meantime, the remaining export controls resemble a bi- By John Kemp LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - In the three months ending in August, the United States and Canada swapped a record amount of crude oil with each other, one of the more bizarre consequences of outdated U.S. export controls. Because U.S. oil producers cannot export crude oil to any other country, crude is sent north to refineries in Canada, even if it would make more sense to ship it to refineries in Europe, Latin America or Asia. In some instances, crude is even shipped past U.S. refineries on the East Coast that want to take it and on up north because of the antiquated restrictions on coastwise trade within the United States imposed by the Jones Act ("Canada's far east refinery swaps Iraqi crude for U.S. shale", Nov. 4). U.S. oil producers have been permitted to export unrefined petroleum to Canada since the 1980s, when the Reagan administration exempted Canadian refiners from the general ban on crude exports. In June 1985, President Ronald Reagan issued a formal determination that "domestic crude oil may be exported to Canada for consumption or use therein." As required by law, the president made formal findings that crude exports were in the national interest; would not diminish the total quantity or quality of crude available in the United States; would not increase reliance on imported oil; and were consistent with the Export Administration Act of 1979 and the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975. In December 1988, shortly before leaving office, Reagan made additional findings to permit exports of up to 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) of more severely restricted Alaskan crude for consumption or use in Canada as part of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. But in an era when U.S. oil production was declining and the country was increasingly relying on imports to supply its refineries, domestic oil producers made little use of this flexibility to market unrefined oil north of the border. Between 1985 and 2011, U.S. exports to Canada generally averaged well under 50,000 b/d, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Thanks to the shale revolution, however, U.S. output has jumped by more than 3.7 million b/d (75 percent) since 2007. Increasing amounts of U.S. crude are now being exported north as producers and traders try to find alternatives to saturated markets at home. Between June and August 2014, a record 378,000 b/d of U.S. crude was exported for refining in Canada. But at the same time as more and more U.S. crude is heading north, a record amount of Canadian is heading south. In the same three months, Canada exported a record 2.8 million b/d of crude to the United States -- up from 2.5 million in the same period in 2013 and 2012, 2.2 million in 2011 and just 1.5 million b/d back in 2003. (http://link.reuters.com/zyc43w) SINGLE REFINING AREA Two-way trade in crude allows both countries to optimise their refining assets. Light U.S. crude is being exchanged for heavier Canadian production to enable refineries on both sides of the border to use their distillation facilities more efficiently. In effect, North America is fast becoming a single refining area with free trade in both crude and refined products between the United States and Canada. But it also makes a complete mockery of the remaining restrictions on crude oil exports to the rest of the world. In theory, U.S. crude can be exported to Canada for "consumption or use therein" but once the oil has left the United States there are no records and no controls on where the prod- 6 INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 BEYOND THE HEADLINES (Continued) zarre relic. They don't protect U.S. consumers and businesses from fuel shortages. They don't limit price rises. They don't even really stop the export of oil any more. They just create numerous distortions, legal uncertainty, and provide a full employment act for lobbyists, lawyers and government staff. In January 2014, Lisa Murkowski, the top-ranked Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, called the patchwork of controls on export controls "antiquated" and insisted "it is time to renovate this regulatory edifice, modernizing it for a 21st century in which the United States is a forwardleaning, outward-facing leader on energy, the environment and trade." Then she was merely a member of the relatively powerless minority. From January 2015, when the 114th Congress assembles, she will likely be the committee chair, and one of the most influential policymakers on energy matters for a Republican Party that will control both chambers of Congress. It is time to act. as it lowered the price of crude cargoes bound for the United States, the kingdom reversed most of the discount it slapped onto Asian oil shipments last month. On balance, though, the country's actions over the past few weeks suggest it is willing to sacrifice profit to hold on to market share as it grapples with slower global growth and booming oil production by shale drillers in the United States. That's bad news for the weaker members of the 12-nation suppliers' alliance, who were counting on the Saudis to defend triple -digit crude prices. These OPEC producers have few levers to pull. Venezuela, for example, may be Latin America's biggest oil producer and have the most proven reserves of the cabal. But it needs $117-a-barrel oil to pay its bills. And it and other countries losing money at current prices cannot afford to share the pain of production cuts. Venezuela says it is working with Ecuador on a proposal to prop up prices. But this is unlikely to amount to much. Saudi Arabia isn't interested and has the financial firepower to withstand low prices almost indefinitely. The kingdom's lack of urgency suggests it may be happy to keep oil flowing in the hope that low prices eventually force some U.S. shale producers out of the market. Of course, if the price falls much further, the chances rise of a production cut after the Nov. 27 meeting. If Saudi Arabia manages to convince other Gulf states to make symbolic cuts, OPEC might even be able to keep up the façade of being a functioning cartel for a while longer. Whatever the decision, though, it's likely to be taken in Riyadh. (John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own) Breakingviews-Saudis drop gavel on OPEC confab three weeks early By Kevin Allison CHICAGO, Nov 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Saudi Arabia has brought the gavel down on OPEC's November confab three weeks early. Brent crude, the main global benchmark, hit a fresh four-year low of $82.55 on Wednesday, two days after the cartel's swing producer cut the official price it charges U.S. buyers for its oil. Cash-strapped members like Venezuela can bray all they want about the need to rein in supply. But Saudi Arabia's view is the only one that counts. Investors may be overreacting to the latest Saudi moves. Even (The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) 7 INSIDE U.S. OIL November 6, 2014 ANALYTIC CHARTS Daily NYMEX Crude - 30 Min Daily ICE Brent Crude - 30 Min Daily ICE Gas Oil - 30 Min Daily NYMEX RBOB Gasoline - 30 Min Daily ICE Heating Oil - 30 Min Daily NYMEX Heating Oil - 30 Min (Inside U.S. Oil is compiled by Renuka Vijay Kumar in Bangalore) For more information: Learn more about our products and services for commodities professionals, click here For questions and comments on Inside U.S. Oil newsletter, click here Contact your local Thomson Reuters office, click here Your subscription: To find out more and register for our free commodities newsletters, click here © 2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. This content is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters and its affiliates. Any copying, distribution or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 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