Gton
Energimöjligheter för Sverige och
Världen
Västervik 2015-11-12
Tomas Kåberger
Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology
visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University
Executive board chair Japan Renewable Energy Foundation
CO2utsläpp i
tre
ledande
regioner
19652014
10 000
7 500
5 000
Total North America
Total Europe & Eurasia
China
2 500
0
Data from BP Statistical review 2015
3
4
Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader
17 more cement plants biting the dust
Updated: 2014-02-18 02:04
By ZHENG JINRAN in Shijiazhuang (China Daily)
Hebei continues with project to cut excess capacity in polluting sectors
Work began in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on Monday on the demolition of another 17 cement factories, two months
after the first batch of demolitions to improve air quality.
"After the second batch of demolitions is finished in March, we can meet the target of reducing excess capacity three years
ahead of schedule, reducing production capacity by 40 percent," said Wang Liang, the mayor of Shijiazhuang. Hebei has
been hit by many smoggy days in February, causing serious pollution. On Monday, the air quality index exceeded 200 in
the morning.
Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers
Univ. of Technology, 2000
5
Sveriges Bioenergianvändning 1970-2014
150
TWh
100
50
0
197019801990 20002010
• ≈1/3 av
använd
energi
•450 PJ
•50 GJ/
capita
•1,6 kW/
capita
Data: Energimyndigeheten
kortsiktsprognos
Global vindel-kapacitet 1980-2014
400
GW
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Data från GWEC
120
GW 110
100
Ledande 90
länders 80
70
utveckling 60
50
av vind-el 40
1980-2014 30
20
10
0
1980 199720012005 20092013
Electricity production @ 7,5 m/s
145%
127%
China
USA
Germany
Spain
India
100%
2002 2010
2,3
2,3
SWT 2,3 - 82
2011
SWT 2,3 DD
By courtesy
Data GWEC,
2012
2A0ve
14ra
ge
ce of
Anverage ppriri
ew wind pcoewoer
f
3
201
new wind po
w
4
of
e
ce
ce
r
pri
n
ge
t/ h.
Av2era
,35 cenkW
kWer
h.
pow
new wind t/
h.
Takint/kW
2,5
to
Takcen
ingginin
to
nt the
aac
ccco
ouu
ninto
t the
ing
P
Tak
roduct
Pro
x
ductioio
nnTaTa
x
the
t
oun
acc
C
re
d
,
th
e
Creditit
p
ri
ce
, the pTax
rice
duction
Pro
waas
2c
ce
w
nt/
t/ce
s 46,
,55
e
n
kkW
Whh
pri
Cre
(43dit,
örethe
/kWh)
was 4,7 cent/kWh
!
ivninger-an
kort/fremskr
fo/talns.dk/files/in
ns.dk/sites/e
http://www.e
11
SWT 2,3 DD -113
alyser-mod
eller/n
07_01_elp
otat_-_2014_
kostnin
roduktionsom
12
_udva
ger_for_10
lgte_teknolog
ier.pdf
200
Solceller
i världen
180
GWp
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Data: BP
statistical
review 2014,
2014 estimate
0
19961998 20002002 20042006 2008 20102012 2014
13
30
20
60
c€/kWh
Tyskland
Kina
Italien
Japan
USA
Spanien
Sjunkande
tariffer för
solel i
Tyskland
2004-2014
45
30
15
1 jan 2014
1 jan 2013
1 jan 2012
1 jan 2011
1 jan 2010
1 jan 2009
15
Data BP stat rev 2014, 2014 est
1 jan 2008
0
1 jan 2007
0
1 jan 2006
Rooftop
Groud mounted
10
1 jan 2005
Solelkapacitet i
ledande
länder
GW
40
1 jan 2004
GW
16
I IBangladesh,
läggs
ett
Japan,
läggs ett
USA, läggs
ettnytt
nytt
solcellssystem
minut!
solcellstak
varannan
solcellstak
varvarje
3e minut!
minut
17
http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology
http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_20130522.pdf
http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?
Negative network effects will transform the
economics and operations of our
infrastructure within 1,000 days. Are you
prepared to benefit from the massive value
creation that will come with game-changing
shifts in energy and other industries? In
this comprehensively researched economic
analysis, noted consultant Michael Rogol
shows how to rapidly build small and
midsize companies into hundred-milliondollar enterprises within a thousand days. If
you do not adjust to market conditions, you
put your business at substantial risk
including possible annihilation. The clock is
ticking.
The book was published 13 December 2011.
A thousand days had passed on September
8th 2014.
A ceiling of $106/MWh had been
set on the solar electricity price
. However, when the project
developers started reverse biddi
ng, the average price of electricity
(for the 1048 MW worth of
projects which will see the light
of day, pun intended) came down
to $89/MWh. That’s very
low, lower than what fossil fuels
or nuclear can offer.
89 USD/MWh ≈ 65 öre/
22 kWh
21
Olika energislags bidrag till ökningen av
Increasedelproduktionen
electricity production
2011-2012
in China
i Kina
2013-2014
2013-2014
23
180
160 TWh
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
≈
0 ≈ −40
−20
−40
175
Fossil
Hydro
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
Biomass
≈
15
17
15
≈ 10
24
Data: http://www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/gongxufenxi/dianliyunxingjiankuang/2015-02-02/133565.html (uncertainties fossil biomass remains)
Gton
CO2utsläpp i
tre
ledande
regioner
19652014
10 000
7 500
5 000
Total North America
Total Europe & Eurasia
China
2 500
0
25
Data from BP Statistical review 2015
Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind
Energimöjligheter för Sverige och
Världen
Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind
Jahr 2014
TWh
7,0
6,0
5,0
Västervik 2015-11-12
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
Januar
Tomas Kåberger
Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology
Legende:
Februar
Wind
März
April
Mai
Juni
Juli
August
Sept.
Oktober
Nov.
Dez.
Solar
visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University
Executive board chair Japan Renewable Energy Foundation
FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT
FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE
Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 2014
Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX
16
Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger
28
Fraunhofer-Institut für
Solare Energiesysteme ISE
Freiburg, den 07.01.2015
© Fraunhofer ISE
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE