Singapore Company Focus
Noble Group
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Bloomberg: NOBL SP | Reuters: NOBG.SI
DBS Group Research . Equity
10 Nov 2014
BUY S$1.20 STI : 3,286.39
A dividend surprise
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.60
Reason for Report : 3Q14 Results
Potential Catalyst: Further capital management activities and/or
acquisitions
DBS vs Consensus: Below on lower sales
Analyst
Mervin SONG CFA +65 6682 8189
[email protected]
S$
Relative Index
217
2.3
197
2.1
177
1.9
157
1.7
137
1.5
117
1.3
97
1.1
77
57
0.9
0.7
Nov-10
Nov-11
Noble Group (LHS)
Forecasts and Valuation
FY Dec (US$ m)
Revenue
EBITDA
Pre-tax Profit
Net Profit
Net Pft (Pre Ex.)
EPS (S cts)
EPS Pre Ex. (S cts)
EPS Gth (%)
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%)
Diluted EPS (S cts)
Net DPS (S cts)
BV Per Share (S cts)
PE (X)
PE Pre Ex. (X)
P/Cash Flow (X)
EV/EBITDA (X)
Net Div Yield (%)
P/Book Value (X)
Net Debt/Equity (X)
ROAE (%)
Earnings Rev (%):
Consensus EPS (S cts):
Other Broker Recs:
Nov-12
37
Nov-14
Nov-13
•
But below expectations due to higher overheads
and lower margins in Agri and MMO
•
US$0.03 special DPS to be paid in Dec 14
•
Maintain BUY and S$1.60 TP
Relative STI INDEX (RHS)
2013A
97,878
930
246
243
309
4.7
6.0
(49)
(36)
4.7
1.2
99.8
25.5
20.1
7.7
12.1
1.0
1.2
1.0
4.7
2014F
87,199
826
580
502
483
9.6
9.2
104
54
9.6
6.2
103.1
12.5
13.0
118.4
10.3
5.1
1.2
0.4
9.5
(8)
10.1
B: 11
2015F
2016F
94,581 102,594
966
1,004
634
756
548
650
548
650
10.5
12.4
10.5
12.4
9
18
14
18
10.5
12.4
2.6
3.1
111.1
120.8
11.4
9.7
11.4
9.7
12.4
11.2
8.6
8.1
2.2
2.6
1.1
1.0
0.4
0.3
9.8
10.7
(13)
12.6
S: 2
(8)
14.6
H: 3
ICB Industry : Industrials
ICB Sector: General Industrials
Principal Business: Noble is a leading supply chain manager in
agriculture, energy, metals, minerals and ores as well as logistics.
The group's operations span from from South America to Australia
and China, serving 4,000+ customers.
Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P
www.dbsvickers.com
ed: JS / sa: YM
3Q14 core PATMI up 117% y-o-y
3Q14 results below. Core PATMI excluding profit from
supply chain assets more than doubled to US$72.1m, on the
back of strong agricultural volumes (+90% y-o-y) and a
recovery in crush margins. However, 3Q14 results were below
our expectations, making up only 13% of our original FY14F.
The underperformance was primarily due to (i) higher
overhead expenses (impact of restructuring costs and
temporary corporate services provided to Noble Agri) and (ii)
lower than expected margins for Noble Agri and the MMO
segment. To account for these factors, we have lowered our
FY14-16F earnings by 8-13%. Nevertheless, we still estimate
28% earnings CAGR over the next three years.
Price Relative
2.5
•
Further capital management? A positive surprise was Noble
declaring a special DPS of US$0.03 which is expected to be
paid in early December. With Noble virtually debt free (after
accounting for US$1.5bn initial proceeds from the disposal of
its 51% interest in Noble Agri; Noble Agri repaying US$1.9bn
shareholder loan and readily marketable inventories of
c.S$2bn), Noble is in a position to conduct similar capital
management initiatives, although it is unclear whether it will
do so at this stage. In addition, deployment of its strong
balance sheet presents upside risks to our numbers.
Maintain BUY. While 3Q14 results disappointed, the
successful disposal of its 51% interest in Noble Agri and move
towards an asset-lighted model resulting in higher ROEs
should act as a re-rating catalyst for the stock. Maintain BUY
and S$1.60 TP (roll forward to FY15 and pegged to average
valuation derived from Noble’s average PE of 16x and P/BV of
1.5x).
At A Glance
Issued Capital (m shrs)
Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m)
Major Shareholders
Noble Holdings (%)
Best Investment Corp (%)
Orias Hldgs Ltd (%)
Free Float (%)
Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000)
6,737
8,085 / 6,273
20.9
9.4
6.4
57.3
26,073
Company Focus
Noble Group
INVESTMENT THESIS
Profile
Noble is a sizeable global commodities supply-chain manager
with secured sources of origination, supporting facilities and
logistics, on a well-diversified customer base. Noble has two
main business segments: Energy and MMO (Metals, Minerals
and Ores), and Logistics. It also owns a 49% interest in Noble
Agri which is an agri-business JV with COFCO and various
investment partners.
Rationale
Re-rating from move towards an asset lighter model.
• Noble is embarking on an asset lighter business model.
This entails reducing its exposure to asset heavy
businesses as demonstrated by the recent disposal of its
51% interest in Noble Agri which has been an
underperforming business over the last few years. The
resultant improvement in balance sheet and ROE
following a change in its strategy in our view, warrants a
re-rating of the stock.
Potential for further capital management surprises
• Noble declared a special DPS of US$0.03 which was
surprise. As Noble is virtually debt free following the
disposal of its 51% interest in Noble Agri, it is in a
position to carry out similar capital management
initiatives. While it is unclear whether this will happen,
such actions in our view will cause a further re-rating of
the stock. The strong balance sheet should also provide
Noble with opportunities to make value accretive
acquisitions.
Valuation
Our target price of S$1.60 is based on the average of 16x
FY15F PE and 1.5x P/BV, in line with its historical mean.
Risks
Risk management
The group relies on top-notch risk management, which
ultimately depends on management quality. Human error
or fraud may result in losses.
Prolonged economic crisis
• A prolonged economic crisis may lower global trade in
commodities, which in turn would adversely impact the
group's profitability.
Potential overhang from CIC
• CIC, one of Noble’s major shareholders, recently reduced
its interest in Noble from 13.81% to 9.36%. Should CIC
reduce its interest further, this may cause volatility in
Noble’s share price. Source: DBS Bank
Forward PB
(x)
3.0
Avg: 16.1x
-1sd: 9.3x
10.0
-2sd: 2.5x
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank
Page 2
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
-
2.0
+1sd: 2x
1.5
Avg: 1.5x
1.0
-1sd: 1.0x
0.5
-2sd: 0.4x
-
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank
Jan-14
20.0
+2sd: 2.5x
Jan-13
+1sd: 19.7x
2.5
Jan-11
+2sd: 27.4x
30.0
PB
Jan-10
PE
Jan-09
(x)
40.0
Jan-12
Forward PE
Company Focus
Noble Group
3Q14 results summary and comments
% Chg
% Chg
FY Dec (US$m)
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
YoY
QoQ
Sales
21,805.7
23,552.2
23,314.0
6.9
-1.0
Cost of goods sold
(21,496.9)
(23,232.6)
(22,996.4)
7.0
-1.0
Operating profit
308.8
319.6
317.6
2.9
-0.6
Selling, administrative & op. exp.
(88.7)
(115.4)
(160.9)
81.3
39.5
Comments
Improved MMO performance
Restructuring costs and support services for
Noble Agri
EBIT
220.0
204.2
156.7
-28.8
-23.3
181.3
22.4
86.4
-52.4
285.0
EBITDA
401.3
226.7
243.0
-39.4
7.2
Finance income
7.2
11.7
17.2
138.3
46.8
Finance costs
(49.1)
(55.6)
(60.2)
22.6
8.3
Profit from supply chain assets
(10.3)
(20.7)
81.8
NM
NM
Depreciation & amort.
Impact from disposal of Noble Agri and
some impairments
Other income (exp)
9.0
(1.0)
5.7
-37.1
NM
Share of profits & losses of
JV
(2.7)
2.3
(4.6)
NM
NM
Associates
(91.0)
(23.8)
(15.6)
NM
NM
Profit before tax
83.2
117.1
180.8
117.5
54.5
Income tax
(18.6)
(7.6)
(39.3)
111.7
420.0
Profit for the year
64.6
109.5
141.5
119.1
29.2
Profit from Agricultural operations
(46.2)
(43.8)
13.1
NM
NM
Attributable to:
(0.7)
0.0
5.7
Shareholders
22.9
65.8
153.9
573.0
134.1
Minority interest
(4.5)
(0.0)
0.7
NM
NM
PATMI excl profit on
33.2
86.5
72.1
117.3
-16.6
Seasonal improvement in agri buisness
held for sale
supply chain assets
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Page 3
Below expectations, forming 13% of
previous FY14F
Company Focus
Noble Group
Quarterly operating statistics
% Chg
% Chg
Volume (m MT)
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
YoY
QoQ
Agriculture
10.9
19.1
20.7
89.9
8.4
Energy
34.3
38.5
37.3
8.7
-3.1
MMO
8.8
14.7
13.6
54.5
-7.5
Total volume
54.0
72.3
71.6
32.6
-1.0
% Chg
% Chg
Segmental rev. (US$ m)
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
YoY
QoQ
Agriculture
4,197
3,891
4,564
8.7
17.3
Energy
17,470
20,416
19,397
11.0
-5.0
MMO
3,928
3,318
3,788
-3.6
14.2
Total revenues
25,595
27,625
27,749
8.4
0.4
% Chg
% Chg
Op. profit fr.
Supply Chain (US$ m)
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
YoY
QoQ
Agriculture
14.0
-0.3
79.0
464.3
NM
Greater grain and sugar volumes
Expansion of non ferrous businesses
Recovery in crush margins and greater economies of
scale in the sugar business
Energy
339.4
276.0
285.0
-16.0
3.3
MMO
20.7
34.0
33.0
59.4
-2.9
Total gross profit
374.1
309.7
397.0
6.1
28.2
% Chg
% Chg
Gross profit/MT (US$)
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
YoY
QoQ
Agriculture
1.3
0.0
3.8
197.1
NM
Energy
9.9
7.2
7.6
-22.8
6.6
MMO
2.4
2.3
2.4
3.2
4.9
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Page 4
Drag from coal business
Exceptional margins in prior year
Company Focus
Noble Group
Key Assumptions
FY Dec
Agriculture gross
Energy gross profit/MT,
MMO gross profit/MT,
Vol. growth %
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
4.1
8.5
3.7
1.8
(1.8)
9.7
3.1
4.3
1.1
9.1
3.3
12.6
1.2
9.1
3.4
7.7
1.3
9.1
3.4
5.4
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
15,437
63,860
14,748
94,045
15,495
65,165
17,218
97,878
N/A
74,057
13,141
87,199
N/A
80,093
14,488
94,581
N/A
86,621
15,974
102,594
180
1,167
156
1,503
(83)
1,358
146
1,421
N/A
1,321
167
1,488
N/A
1,361
178
1,539
N/A
1,402
189
1,591
1.2
1.8
1.1
1.6
(0.5)
2.1
0.8
1.5
N/A
1.8
1.3
1.7
N/A
1.7
1.2
1.6
N/A
1.6
1.2
1.6
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
94,045
(92,542)
1,503
(699)
805
1
(29)
(341)
0
436
29
6
0
471
472
1,054
97,878
(96,458)
1,421
(658)
763
7
(104)
(354)
(66)
246
(7)
5
0
243
309
930
87,199
(85,711)
1,488
(577)
911
(109)
(74)
(168)
19
580
(75)
(2)
0
502
483
826
94,581
(93,043)
1,539
(547)
992
7
(133)
(232)
0
634
(82)
(3)
0
548
548
966
102,594
(101,003)
1,591
(593)
998
8
(104)
(146)
0
756
(98)
(8)
0
650
650
1,004
16.5
6.5
5.6
9.3
4.1
(11.7)
(5.2)
(48.3)
(10.9)
(11.2)
19.5
106.3
8.5
17.0
8.9
9.2
8.5
4.0
0.6
18.5
1.6
0.9
0.5
9.7
2.4
7.1
24.5
2.4
1.5
0.8
0.2
4.7
1.2
6.7
24.9
2.2
1.7
1.0
0.6
9.5
2.7
7.7
64.3
5.4
1.6
1.0
0.6
9.8
2.9
8.8
25.0
4.3
1.6
1.0
0.6
10.7
3.2
8.2
25.0
6.8
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec
Revenues (US$ m)
Agriculture
Energy
MMO
Total
Gross Profit (US$ m)
Agriculture
Energy
MMO
Total
Gross Profit Margins (%)
Agriculture
Energy
MMO
Total
Income Statement (US$ m)
FY Dec
Revenue
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc
Operating Profit
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc
Associates & JV Inc
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc
Exceptional Gain/(Loss)
Pre-tax Profit
Tax
Minority Interest
Preference Dividend
Net Profit
Net Profit before Except.
EBITDA
Growth
Revenue Gth (%)
EBITDA Gth (%)
Opg Profit Gth (%)
Net Profit Gth (%)
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%)
Opg Profit Margin (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)
ROAE (%)
ROA (%)
ROCE (%)
Div Payout Ratio (%)
Net Interest Cover (x)
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Page 5
Agriculture business
deconsolidated
following disposal of
51% interest in the
business.
Margins Trend
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2012A
2013A
Operating Margin %
2014F
2015F
2016F
Net Income Margin %
Improvement in profitability
driven by recovery in the
Agriculture business and
lower interest expenses
(refinancing of more
expensive debt).
Company Focus
Noble Group
Growth
Revenue Gth (%)
EBITDA Gth (%)
Opg Profit Gth (%)
Net Profit Gth (%)
Margins
Gross Margins (%)
Opg Profit Margins (%)
Net Profit Margins (%)
Balance Sheet (US$ m)
FY Dec
2Q2014
3Q2014
40,000
80%
35,000
60%
30,000
31.2
(47.6)
(42.7)
(57.0)
(1.0)
51.6
(23.3)
141.4
1.4
1.0
0.1
0.9
(0.1)
0.3
2.8
2.0
0.8
1.4
0.9
0.3
1.4
0.7
0.7
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
2,870
1,074
1,708
751
3,400
3,441
6,459
19,704
2,876
1,214
1,925
1,056
3,090
3,138
6,413
19,712
700
2,500
1,072
1,635
2,308
3,018
6,572
17,805
812
2,367
1,046
2,251
2,505
3,274
7,129
19,384
922
2,263
1,021
2,789
2,719
3,551
7,732
20,999
ST Debt
Creditor
Other Current Liab
LT Debt
Other LT Liabilities
Shareholder’s Equity
Minority Interests
Total Cap. & Liab.
1,184
8,749
63
4,466
84
5,116
42
19,704
2,049
8,284
77
4,091
43
5,157
10
19,712
725
8,406
77
3,152
43
5,388
12
17,805
1,462
9,125
77
2,852
43
5,808
16
19,384
1,584
9,906
77
3,052
43
6,313
23
20,999
Non-Cash Wkg. Capital
Net Cash/(Debt)
Debtors Turn (avg days)
Creditors Turn (avg days)
Inventory Turn (avg days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Current Ratio (x)
Quick Ratio (x)
Net Debt/Equity (X)
Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X)
Capex to Debt (%)
Z-Score (X)
4,489
(4,899)
11.9
32.3
12.4
4.7
1.4
0.4
0.9
1.0
12.7
5.6
4,279
(5,085)
12.3
32.3
12.3
5.0
1.3
0.4
1.0
1.0
7.8
5.8
3,415
(2,242)
12.9
35.6
11.5
4.6
1.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
9.0
5.8
3,705
(2,064)
12.1
34.4
9.4
5.1
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
4.6
5.9
4,020
(1,848)
12.1
34.4
9.4
5.1
1.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
4.3
6.0
Page 6
10,000
5,000
-40%
0
-60%
Revenue
Revenue Growth % (QoQ)
Y-o-y improvement due to
scale benefits at Noble’s
sugar plants and better crush
margins.
Asset Breakdown (2014)
Net Fixed Assets
Invts in Associates & JVs
Other LT Assets
Cash & ST Invts
Inventory
Debtors
Other Current Assets
Total Assets
Source: Company, DBS Bank
-20%
3Q2014
(49.8)
(4.8)
nm
34.2
0%
15,000
2Q2014
64.1
20.0
nm
643.0
20%
20,000
1Q2014
4.2
40.0
(26.8)
(71.8)
40%
25,000
4Q2013
23,314
(22,996)
318
(161)
157
19
(20)
(43)
82
194
(39)
(1)
154
72
242
3Q2013
23,552
(23,233)
320
(115)
204
(45)
(22)
(44)
(21)
72
(8)
0
64
84
159
2Q2013
17,956
(17,459)
497
(141)
357
(81)
(13)
(47)
(42)
172
(21)
(1)
148
190
304
1Q2013
35,781
(35,458)
322
(367)
(45)
400
2
(214)
(31)
110
11
(7)
111
141
320
4Q2012
21,806
(21,497)
309
(89)
220
(37)
(94)
(42)
(10)
33
(19)
5
15
25
266
3Q2012
Revenue
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc
Operating Profit
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc
Associates & JV Inc
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc
Exceptional Gain/(Loss)
Pre-tax Profit
Tax
Minority Interest
Net Profit
Net profit bef Except.
EBITDA
Revenue Trend
1Q2014
2Q2012
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (US$ m)
FY Dec
3Q2013
4Q2013
Debtors 29.7%
Net Fixed
Assets 6.9%
Assocs'/JVs 24.6%
Inventory 22.7%
Reduction in gearing
due to disposal of 51%
interest in Noble Agri.
Bank, Cash
and Liquid
Assets 16.1%
Company Focus
Noble Group
Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)
FY Dec
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
Capital Expenditure
Pre-Tax Profit
Dep. & Amort.
Tax Paid
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss)
Chg in Wkg.Cap.
Other Operating CF
Net Operating CF
Capital Exp.(net)
Other Invts.(net)
Invts in Assoc. & JV
Div from Assoc & JV
Other Investing CF
Net Investing CF
Div Paid
Chg in Gross Debt
Capital Issues
Other Financing CF
Net Financing CF
Currency Adjustments
Chg in Cash
Opg CFPS (US cts.)
Free CFPS (US cts.)
436
282
(55)
29
(314)
515
893
(718)
0
(77)
2
347
(446)
(89)
(476)
14
(665)
(1,216)
(28)
(797)
18.5
2.7
246
270
7
104
(345)
524
805
(478)
(13)
(64)
0
(241)
(796)
(115)
587
8
(178)
302
(6)
305
17.3
4.9
580
115
(75)
74
(476)
(164)
53
(350)
0
0
0
(1,000)
(1,350)
(263)
(2,263)
0
4,402
1,876
0
579
7.8
(4.4)
634
118
(82)
133
266
(561)
507
(200)
0
0
0
0
(200)
(121)
437
0
(8)
309
0
615
3.6
4.6
756
120
(98)
104
289
(609)
562
(200)
0
0
0
0
(200)
(137)
322
0
(8)
177
0
538
4.0
5.4
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012A
2013A
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Target Price & Ratings History
S$
1.48
S.No .
1:
2:
1.38
4
1.28
5
3
1.18
1.08
2
0.98
1
0.88
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.
Source: DBS Bank
Page 7
2014F
2015F
Capital Expenditure (-)
Cl o s i n g Ta rg e t
Pri c e
Pri c e
13 Nov 13
1.05
1.15
24 Feb 14
1.00
1.09
Da te
R a ti n g
Hold
Hold
3:
03 Apr 14
1.32
1.53
4:
16 May 14
1.27
1.60
Buy
Buy
5:
08 Aug 14
1.35
1.60
Buy
2016F
Company Focus
Noble Group
DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte
Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this document
may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS
Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents
(collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed
are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does
not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for
the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain
separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss
(including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in
relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS
Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in
this document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek
to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there
can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk
assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or
condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and
assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on
which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from
actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE
RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk
assessments stated therein.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)
mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to
the commodity referred to in this report.
DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research
department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies
and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her
compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date of
the report is published, the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the
securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
1.
DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates has a proprietary
position in Noble Group in this report as of 30 Sep 2014.
2.
DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of
common equity securities of the company mentioned as of 30 Sep 2014.
3.
Compensation for investment banking services:
DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have received compensation, within the past 12
months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the
company mentioned.
Page 8
Company Focus
Noble Group
DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking
transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information,
including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document
should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
General
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be
contrary to law or regulation.
Australia
This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd
(“DBSVS”), both of which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the
Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this
report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
Hong Kong
This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Indonesia
This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.
Malaysia
This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR") (formerly known as HwangDBS Vickers
Research Sdn Bhd). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in
respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found
at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company
Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers,
employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in
the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory
and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain
compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.
Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR
Singapore
This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No.
198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the
Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign
entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial
Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert
Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons
only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising
from, or in connection with the report.
Thailand
This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only
intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.
United
Kingdom
This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of
the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is
intended only for institutional clients.
Dubai
This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch)
rd
having its office at PO Box 506538, 3 Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre
(DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority.
This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act
upon it.
United States
Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in
compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which
accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any
securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.
Other
jurisdictions
In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified,
professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
DBS Bank Ltd.
12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3
Singapore 018982
Tel. 65-6878 8888
Company Regn. No. 196800306E
Page 9