Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0313-3 ORIGINAL PAPER Exploring probable reasons for record fatalities: the case of 2011 Joplin, Missouri, Tornado Bimal Kanti Paul • Mitchel Stimers Received: 10 June 2012 / Accepted: 24 July 2012 / Published online: 11 August 2012 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 Abstract On the evening of 22 May 2011, an EF-5 tornado tore a path six miles long across Joplin, Missouri, USA, killing 162 people as it passed through the heart of the city. This tornado stands as the deadliest single tornado to hit the United States since modern recordkeeping began in 1950, surpassing the tornado of 8 June 1953 that claimed 116 lives in Flint, Michigan. The record number of deaths caused by the single tornado in Joplin was far higher than the average annual number of US tornado deaths over the last three decades. This study explores the reasons for the high number of fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado. Questionnaire surveys administered among tornado survivors and informal discussions with emergency management personnel and others suggest that five reasons are associated with the high number of tornado fatalities experienced in Joplin: (1) the sheer magnitude of this event; (2) its path through commercial and densely populated residential areas; (3) the relatively large size of damage area; (4) the physical characteristics of affected homes in Joplin; and (5) the fact that some residents ignored tornado warnings. Several recommendations are offered, the implementation of which should reduce future tornado fatalities not only in Joplin, but elsewhere in the United States. Keywords Joplin tornado Tornado fatalities Tornado warnings Compliance with warnings Housing characteristics B. K. Paul (&) Department of Geography, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA e-mail: [email protected] M. Stimers Department of Natural and Physical Sciences, Cloud County Community College, Junction City, KS 66441, USA 123 1512 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 Fig. 1 Estimated tornado path within the city of Joplin, MO. Source: Compiled from various sources 1 Introduction On the evening of 22 May 2011, a tornado killed 162 people and injured over 1,000 in the city of Joplin, Missouri, USA.1 As a part of a larger late-May tornado outbreak sequence, it initially touched down in a rural area just east of the Kansas/Missouri state line and caused minor damage. The tornado entered Joplin at its south-west corner at 5:41 pm CDT (Fig. 1). It was approximately a half-mile wide when it hit Joplin near Schifferdecker Avenue. At this point, the tornado was rated EF-2 to EF-3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF Scale) (NOAA 2011). It grew to a width of three quarters of a mile between 26th and East 20th Street (Turner and Hacker 2011). Near South Duquesne Road to near the Interstate 44 and 249/71 junction, the tornado began turning right and moving south-east across Interstate 44 where it weakened; nonetheless, vehicles were flipped and mangled near the US Route 71 (Fig. 1). The weakened tornado, rated EF-1 to EF-2, continued to track into the rural areas of south-eastern Jasper county and north-eastern Newton County where damage was generally minor to moderate. The tornado lifted east of Diamond at 6:12 pm CDT. The tornado’s total track length was at least 22.1 miles (35.6 km) long. It 1 Various sources report different fatality totals for the 2011 Joplin, MO, tornado. As of May 2012, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reported a death toll of 158 (SPC 2012). SPC’s total includes only deaths directly related to the event. However, one or more indirect deaths are also caused by this tornado. For example, a policeman was struck by lightning and killed while assisting with recovery and cleanup efforts the day after the tornado. Several people died from injuries more than a month after the tornado. An evaluation report of the National Weather Service (NWS) claims that there were 159 direct fatalities and 3 indirect fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado (SPC 2012). 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 1513 travelled a six-mile-long path across the city and achieved wind speeds that exceeded 200 mph (320 kph), with no fewer than four of these six-mile long paths rated EF-5 on the EF Scale. The tornado destroyed much of the city’s south side and completely flattened many densely populated neighbourhoods (Turner and Hacker 2011). The Joplin tornado destroyed nearly 7,000 homes and damaged hundreds more (Joplin Globe 2011a, b), with the damage area covering 1,800 acres (2.81 square miles), equivalent to approximately one quarter of the city of 50,150 residents (US Census Bureau 2012).2 About one-third of the population of the city was in the tornado path or an estimated 15,000 persons (Simmons and Sutter 2012). The Joplin tornado caused an estimated $3 billion in insured losses, not including uninsured damage to structures (Paul and Stimers 2011). The 2011 Joplin tornado stands as the deadliest single tornado to hit the United States since modern recordkeeping began in 1950, surpassing the tornado of 8 June 1953 that claimed 116 lives in Flint, Michigan (NOAA 2011). Given the magnitude and size of the tornado and the density of the population in the area it hit, the total number of fatalities caused by this event was not unexpected (Simmons and Sutter 2012); nonetheless, the event set the record number of deaths. For the last 30 years, tornado fatalities in the United States have averaged around 55 per year (Simmons and Sutter 2011), meaning that the 2011 Joplin tornado caused nearly three times more fatalities than this annual average. Why then did so many people die in Joplin? Were there problems with the tornado warning system? Were there problems with Joplin residents heeding any given warnings? Were there other contributing factors? This study explores the possible reasons for the large number of fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado and provides some perspective on the death toll. Evidence will be provided with the help of relevant information collected from both primary and secondary sources. Though this evidence is suggestive and not necessarily entirely conclusive, findings of this study will aid policy makers and private and public emergency management agencies in reducing fatalities and injuries from future tornados in Joplin and elsewhere in the United States. As background for this study, an overview of risk factors associated with tornado fatalities is presented next, followed by a section that describes the data collection procedure for this study. Probable reasons for the high number of deaths and the conclusion of this study are presented in the final two sections. 2 Risk factors for tornado fatalities: an overview Existing literature (e.g. Schmidlin 1993; Brenner and Noji 1995; Schmidlin and King 1997; Daley et al. 2005; Sutter and Simmons 2010; Simmons and Sutter 2011) suggests that tornado fatalities in the United States are associated with an event’s magnitude, frequency, timing, season of occurrence and path (or track). Magnitude refers to the strength or severity of a tornado and since 2007 has been expressed in terms of the EF Scale. In general, the greater a tornado’s magnitude, the greater the potential for fatalities, injuries and damage to property (Paul 2011; Simmons and Sutter 2011). In absolute terms, however, more people have died from EF-0 through EF-4 tornados because EF-5 tornados occur less frequently (Simmons and Sutter 2011, 2012). Like magnitude, in general, a 2 The average tornado damage area in the United States is less than one square mile (Simmons and Sutter 2011). 123 1514 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 higher frequency of tornado occurrence usually results in more fatalities; however, frequency is not relevant for the present study because the focus here is on only one tornado. Timing is also considered a contributory factor for fatalities caused by tornadoes (e.g. Ashley 2007; Simmons and Sutter 2008, 2011, 2012; Sutter and Simmons 2010). Tornados are significantly more lethal at night than during the day primarily because people are likely to be home, they may not hear tornado warnings, or they may be asleep. For example, Simmons and Sutter (2008) found through regression analysis that expected fatalities are 64 % lower for tornados that occur during the day than for ones that occur at night. They reached this conclusion after controlling for other factors such as storm path characteristics, magnitude and issuance of a tornado warning. Using a data set for the 1900–2007 period, Simmons and Sutter (2011) claimed that most tornado fatalities in the United States occur between March and June. However, tornadoes in these months are not particularly dangerous. According to their analysis, February is the most dangerous month for fatalities per tornado (0.29). Tornadoes are particularly benign in the late summer, with lowest fatalities per tornado occurring in July. The difference between February and July is quite remarkable. The fatality rate in July (0.01) is about 1/25 of the February rate (Simmons and Sutter 2011). They further found that May to October is characterized by the lowest fatality rates per tornado, while the highest rates are in the months from November to April. This is primarily because people of tornado-prone areas are more prepared for tornadoes during the tornado season (March– June) than non-tornado season. They also take warnings more seriously during the former season and as a result compliance with warnings is also high during this season (Simmons and Sutter 2011). Relevant studies (e.g. Balluz et al. 2000; Sutter and Simmons 2010; Stimers 2011) also suggest that the location of a tornado path is an important determinant of deaths caused by the event. Not surprisingly, if the path of the tornado passes over highly populated areas, the number of fatalities is likely to be higher than if it passes over less populated areas. In analysing tornado events between 2000 and 2009, Stimers (2011) calculated that 981 (8 %) of the 12,657 events that occurred in the United States during that period passed through communities. He also reported that this percentage is even lower for states located in the Great Plains because the overwhelming majority of tornados (during the period studied) touched down in open spaces far from any major populated areas (Stimers 2011). In the Great Plains region as well as in other regions of the United States, population centres tend to be widely dispersed. It is worth mentioning that the 2011 Joplin tornado travelled over an area of the city that had an average population density of 1,500 people per square mile (NOAA 2011). Tornado-related deaths also depend on two non-structural factors: (1) the nature of tornado warnings and (2) the compliance (or lack thereof) with those warnings (Daley et al. 2005). If tornado warnings are not issued in a timely manner (or not issued at all), the population at risk is less able to seek safe shelter, which may contribute to a greater number of deaths and injuries (Balluz et al. 2000; Simmons and Sutter 2008). Tornado warnings issued ahead of the event coupled with widespread compliance have saved many lives. Simmons and Sutter (2011) claim that a warning with a lead time of 5 min or less reduces fatalities by 19 % but warnings with a lead time of 6–10 min reduces fatalities by 52 %. Largely due to improved warning systems, annual tornado fatalities in the United States have consistently decreased over the last 50 years (Ashley 2007). Tornado fatalities declined from 2.9 per million in the mid-1920s to around 0.2 per million in recent years (Simmons and Sutter 2011). 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 1515 Although not considered in this study, several individual and household characteristics are also associated with tornado fatalities. These characteristics may dictate who receives hazard warnings as well as who complies with such warnings (Paul and Dutt 2010). For example, the less affluent and less educated generally have reduced access to warning systems, thus impeding their ability to receive such warnings, and as a result, tornados pose a greater threat to their lives (Chaney et al. 2012). Further, the less affluent are more likely to own and/or live in an old house, which may not have a basement and/or safe room. A ‘‘safe room’’ is made of thick concrete walls and ceilings reinforced with steel bars. Safe rooms can be installed in a basement, in the centre of the house at ground level of homes without a basement, or under a garage (the garage floor then serves as the shelter’s ceiling) (Murphy and Sherry 2003). As indicated, older houses, houses with walls not anchored to the foundation and houses without a basement are risk factors associated with increased tornado mortality rates (Balluz et al. 2000). In addition, the less affluent are more likely to live in pre-fabricated, manufactured, or modular (‘‘pre-fab’’ or ‘‘mod homes’’) or mobile homes (Sutter and Simmons 2010). Based on an analysis of tornado data collected between 1996 and 2007, Sutter and Simmons (2010) reported that, in the United States, the probability of tornado fatalities in mobile homes is 10 times (or more) greater than that in permanent homes (see also Brooks and Doswell 2002; Brown et al. 2002; Daley et al. 2005; Simmons and Sutter 2006; Ashley 2007; Schmidlin et al. 2009; Chaney and Weaver 2010). Between 1985 and 2007, 536 of 1,240 (43.2 %) of US tornado fatalities occurred in mobile homes, although mobile homes made up only 8 % of US housing units in 2000 and only 7 % of the population lived in mobile homes (Sutter and Simmons 2010). As noted, mobile homes accounted for 43 % of all tornado fatalities that occurred during the 1985–2007 time period. Slightly over 31 % of all deaths occurred in what the NWS describes as permanent homes. Other locations for fatalities include 9 % in vehicles, 5.3 % in schools and churches and 5 % each in businesses and outdoor locations (Simmons and Sutter 2011). Daley et al. (2005) reported that mobile homes situated in the path of a tornado are consistently associated with a particularly high risk of death or injury. In analysing deaths and injuries in Oklahoma after the 3 May 1999 tornado, Brown et al. (2002) claimed that people living in a mobile home, an apartment complex, or outdoors had a higher fatality rate than those living in permanent houses. Additionally, Sutter and Simmons (2010) reported that a larger proportion of fatalities occur in mobile homes during less powerful tornados (e.g. EF-1, EF-2, or EF-3). In other words, EF-1 through EF3 tornados are potentially lethal for residents of mobile homes (which are structurally weaker than traditional ‘‘stick-built’’ or brick homes), yet the researchers observed no significant difference in the number of fatalities caused by EF-4 and EF-5 tornados vis-àvis people living in mobile versus permanent homes. In terms of the timing of a tornado, Schmidlin et al. (2009) and Sutter and Simmons (2010) claim that mobile home fatalities are especially likely to occur at night, particularly from midnight to 6:00 am. It is evident from the preceding discussion that tornado-related deaths not only are associated with the physical characteristics of the event, but are also a function of the social, economic and demographic factors of people exposed to tornados (Cutter et al. 2003; Wisner et al. 2004; Cutter and Finch 2008; Simmons and Sutter 2011, 2012). Risk factors associated with tornado fatalities can broadly be divided into two groups: (1) structural (e.g. housing characteristics and availability of public tornado shelters) and (2) non-structural. The latter can be subdivided as (1) warning characteristics, including compliance with warnings; (2) physical characteristics of the tornado itself (e.g. frequency, magnitude and timing of occurrence); and (3) individual and household characteristics 123 1516 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 (e.g. age, education level, gender, income and immigration status). It is important to note that there is considerable overlap among risk factors for these different groups. For example, whether a person owns a permanent house largely depends on his/her economic situation. Likewise, economic conditions may determine access to tornado warning systems; those without a television or access to the Internet may not be as prepared to seek shelter as those who own a television or can access online weather reports. 3 Methods Data and information used in this study were drawn from multiple sources, with the major source of data coming from a questionnaire survey administered to tornado survivors of Joplin, Missouri, selected through a snowball sampling procedure. The survey was conducted between 24 June 2011 and 16 February 2012. A prestructured interview schedule was used to collect relevant information from residents who were in the city on the evening of the tornado. The schedule used contained three types of information: (1) questions related to knowledge regarding tornado warnings and compliance with these warning messages; (2) questions regarding property damage, injuries sustained, the number of deaths in household, past tornado experience and characteristics of the residential structure; and (3) demographic and socio-economic questions (e.g. the respondents’ gender, age, marital status, educational attainment, employment status and annual household income). The primary purpose of the questionnaire was to explore the probable reasons for the high number of fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado. This was partially accomplished by examining the nature and extent of warnings residents of Joplin received prior to the tornado’s touchdown and how they responded to those warnings. Such an examination was necessary because many people, including the authors of this study, after hearing about tornado fatalities in Joplin, initially suspected that tornado warnings were not adequate and/or residents of the city did not appropriately respond to the warnings. The disaster literature (e.g. Balluz et al. 2000; Paul et al. 2003; Sherman-Morris 2005; Simmons and Sutter 2011, 2012) also suggests a strong positive correlation between tornado fatalities and lack of warnings, inadequate warnings, or non-compliance with warnings. Data collected contained no identifiers; resident participation in the study interview was voluntary and non-coercive, and participant confidentiality was respected throughout the study. Face-to-face interviews were conducted among 133 respondents by six trained personnel. Interviews were conducted in various locations within the Joplin area, including malls, retail outlets, libraries, restaurants, pubs, residences, golf courses, gas stations, temporary shelters and offices of emergency agencies responsible for processing disaster aid applications. In addition, eight interviews were completed using a combination of telephone and the social media Internet site Facebook, for a total of 141 responses. Although the intent was to survey every available tornado survivor, not many were present at the interview locations. Additionally, seven survivors declined to participate because they had scheduled appointment in other places, and several exited before they were approached for interviews. Each interview lasted approximately 10–15 min and the research team went to Joplin four times to conduct interviews. Relevant data were also collected from local emergency management personnel for Joplin and surrounding areas, Joplin city officials, fire and law enforcement dispatchers, volunteers responsible for clearing debris, local professionals (e.g. lawyers, teachers and businessmen) and residents of Joplin and neighbouring areas through informal discussions and conversations. The Joplin Globe—the local daily newspaper—and other print media 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 1517 provided valuable information for this study. This research attempted to synthesize the most common responses received from the various sources. Spatial data used in this study were collected from the City of Joplin mapping division, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the US Census Bureau. These data were analysed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) to create the warning siren buffer. Among the spatial data collected was a shape file of 8,440 points data that originated from FEMA. 4 Results Of the 141 respondents, 86 (61 %) were male and the mean age of all respondents were 44 years. Slightly over 54 % of the respondents were married at the time of survey, 28 % were unmarried and the remaining 18 % were divorced, legally separated, or lost their spouse. The questionnaire survey reveals that nearly 3 % did not graduate from high school, 62 % completed high school and the remaining 35 % had an education above the high school level. Nearly 46 % respondents indicated they were employed full-time and another 20 % were employed on part-time basis. Only 8 % were unemployed and the remaining respondents were students, disabled, retired, or home makers. In terms of yearly household income, slightly over 36 % respondents reported an income under $20,000, while nearly one-fourth of the total respondents earned more than $59,999 per year. Prior to the 2011 tornado, all respondents interviewed in this study were residents of Joplin and the overwhelming majority of them were still living in the city at the time of questionnaire survey. Nearly 49 % of all respondents reported damage to their home and/or other possessions. This means slightly over half of the respondents were from outside the path of the devastating tornado. Two such respondents experienced total destruction of their Main Street real state properties which were in the direct path of the tornado. Of the 141 respondents, 84 (60 %) were at home when the tornado struck Joplin, MO and the remaining 57 (40 %) were outside home at different places (e.g. churches, place of works, friend’s and/or relatives’ houses within Joplin, retail stores, on the roads, restaurants, gas stations, the movie theatre and Webb City, which is located immediately north and adjacent to Joplin). The questionnaire survey reveals that a total of 26 persons sustained injuries from 18 households. Among the injured, no one was outside the houses or buildings, but their houses were along the tornado paths. Only three respondents reported a death in their households. In addition to present empirical evidence regarding the nature of warnings residents of Joplin received prior to the tornado touchdown and the extent of compliance with such warnings, the subsequent sub-sections will also analyse the housing characteristics of this community with a view to find possible reason(s) for the high tornado fatalities in Joplin. 4.1 Tornado warnings As noted, a questionnaire survey was administered among survivors of the Joplin tornado to ascertain their knowledge regarding such warnings. The survey data revealed that nearly 90 % respondents received tornado warnings before it struck Joplin, MO. Exactly the same percentage of respondents was aware that the emergency sirens had sounded prior to the advancing tornado. Apart from sirens, a considerable proportion of respondents also received tornado warnings from other sources, such as commercial and weather radio, television, cellular and landline telephone, e-mail and word-of-mouth. Respondents were 123 1518 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 Fig. 2 Warning siren locations with a one-mile buffer applied also warned by their neighbours who came to their homes, the announcement of a tornado warning coming over retail stores’ intercom system, looking at the sky, or through local police. Of the respondents who were unaware of any warnings, the most common reason given for their lack of awareness was that they were inside their homes and not watching television or listening to a radio. They were also not able to hear the warning sirens because they were inside their homes. Warning sirens are not designed to be heard from inside a house, particularly when doors and windows are closed. Although a 90 % siren warning awareness rate can be considered very high, the reasons for the 10 % who remained unaware are still noteworthy, and there appear to be several reasons. The first reason concerns siren audibility. Keith Stammer, Director of Jasper County Emergency Operations Center (JCEOC), informed us that all 28 tornado sirens located within the city of Joplin and surrounding area sounded on the evening of 22 May 2011 without any failure. However, the entire affected area was not within audible range of the sirens. Fig. 2 shows the location of all 28 sirens, along with a one-mile buffer applied to each site, indicating the audible range of the tornado warning siren.3 The figure suggests that about 10 % of the total area of Joplin and its vicinity are located outside the audible range of the sirens. Fig. 2 indicates that an area near the eastern-most section of the city in the tornado’s path was not covered by a siren network. It is reasonable to expect that people in that area should have been able to hear the siren as the wind at that time was 3 This audible range was suggested by Keith Stammer of JCEOC. 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 Table 1 Tornado lead time (in min) by respondents’ opinions regarding adequacy of the time to seek safety (N = 126) 1519 Lead time Provided enough time Number (%) 0–5 13 (13) 6–10 31 (32) 37 (29) 11–15 27 (28) 32 (25) 16–20 20 (20) 23 (18) [20 Total Total Number (%) 26 (22) 7 (7) 8 (6) 98 (100) 126 (100) moving in a west-to-east direction. This movement created elliptically shaped buffers rather than circular ones. Normally, a siren can serve areas within its audible range, assuming there is little or no topographical or artificial interference with the sound waves produced (Current and O’Kelly 1992). However, the topography of Joplin consists of many low hills and valleys, which might have created barriers to coverage of the entire area within the audible range. Secondly, the Joplin tornado contained pounding rain and hail; conditions may have contributed to some residents’ lack of awareness of the siren. Because sufficient lead time between the warning and the arrival of the tornado is critical for taking shelter (and thusly for reducing deaths and injuries), this study examined the lead time Joplin residents experienced prior to tornado touchdown. Table 1 contains this information in the form of respondent opinions regarding whether the warnings provided them sufficient time to seek safety. Although lead time is divided into five categories, the opinions of the respondents are dichotomized as: ‘‘had enough time to seek safety’’ (yes) and ‘‘not enough time to seek safety’’ (no). Information collected from the survey instrument revealed that the reported tornado warning lead time ranged from one to 27 min. Table 1 shows that 95 (76 %) of the 126 respondents had lead time 15 min or less and the remaining 31 respondents (24 %) received warnings more than 15 min before tornado hit Joplin. It is interesting to note that a warning with a lead time of 5 min or less reduces fatalities by 19 % and a warning in the 11–15-min interval reduces fatalities by 33 %. A lead time over 15 min may not reduce fatality; rather, it may increase expected fatalities (Simmons and Sutter 2011). Table 1 further shows that the overwhelming majority of respondents surveyed agreed that the tornado warnings provided enough time to seek shelter. Only 28 respondents indicated they felt they did not have sufficient time to take shelter despite the fact that 12 of them had a lead time of at least 5 min. Respondents were also asked to indicate whether they felt the National Weather Service (NWS) did an adequate job of warning and/or preparing Joplin residents for the approaching tornado. Slightly over 84 % (106 of 126) respondents answered this question affirmatively. In analysing response to the 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak across northern Alabama, Klockow (2011) reports that many tornado survivors had difficulty determining whether they were at risk or not. They had a hard time determining a storms trajectory because the looping radar images being shown on the television were too short and did not clearly show where the storm was moving. To a considerable extent, these problems occurred because of Storm Based Warnings (SBWs) use as opposed to traditional county-based warnings. The SBWs were adopted by the NWS in October 2007, and this system warns only areas directly in the path of a tornado instead of entire counties (Simmons and Sutter 2011, 2012). 123 1520 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 The 2011 Joplin tornado warning also used the SBW system and the entire path of the storm through Joplin was contained within the SBW polygons (NOAA 2011). However, no respondents or any other persons in Joplin raised any concerns with the SBW system. Moreover, conversations with non-respondents and emergency personnel working in Joplin (at the time the questionnaire surveys were administered) revealed that advance warnings of the tornado were issued in a timely manner and reached almost all the people in the affected community and its immediate environs. The NOAA assessment report on the 22 May 2011 Joplin tornado, and articles published on tornado warnings in the daily Joplin Globe also support this view (NOAA 2011). Simmons and Sutter’s recent book on the 2011 deadly tornado season also concur with the above contention (Simmons and Sutter 2012). 4.2 Compliance with tornado warnings Of the 126 respondents who received the tornado warnings, 97 (77 %) stated that they did comply with warnings and took shelter after hearing sounds of siren. This response rate can be considered high.4 At least three respondents who complied with the warning indicated they went outside to see the tornado, to visually verify the tornado threat before taking shelter; such action is not recommended as it involves considerable risk. Several others did not react to the first warning sirens, which sounded at 5:11 pm CDT, but did seek shelter after hearing the second round of sirens beginning at 5:38 pm CDT. The first sirens provoked some respondents to seek additional information from televised reports, social media via the Internet, or going outside to view the tornado and/or weather conditions for themselves. A similar finding was also included in the NOAA report on this tornado (NOAA 2011). Having no faith in the warnings and consequently not seeking shelter was reported by 10 of the 29 respondents. Four respondents who did not seek shelter thought that there might be some hail and/or wind damage that would result from the storm, and one respondent stated: ‘‘It would not pass through our town.’’ Only two respondents indicated that they did not understand the warning instructions. One of these two thought the second round of sirens meant the tornado had passed. Three respondents explained that they did not receive any warning as they were in their car returning home. The remaining eight respondents who did not take shelter after receiving the warnings stated that emergency siren activation is such a common occurrence in this area that they hesitated in their response. One of them stated: ‘‘We hear tornado sirens all the time, and nobody pays attention to them.’’ This illustrates an example of the indifferent attitude of some Joplin residents towards tornado warnings (also see Turner and Hacker 2011). Historically, tornado activity around the Joplin area is well above the average for Missouri and it is 161 % greater than the national average (Joplin, Missouri (MO) Profile 2011). The city has experienced two other tornadoes since May of 1971. However, the vast majority of tornados occurring in the Joplin area are low magnitude, ranging from EF-0 to EF-2. In addition, tornados in this area usually display short-tracks, and are often fastmovers on the ground. Even the 2011 Joplin tornado was rated as only an EF-0 just a few miles west of the city (NOAA 2011). Given the high frequency of tornados and their low magnitude, it is not unusual that some people in Joplin did not take the severe weather warnings seriously. 4 In reviewing studies dealing with response to tornado warnings in the United States, Simmons and Sutter (2011) found that the reported response rates range from just under 30 % to almost 90 %. 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 1521 Table 2 Areas used for tornado shelter by residential and non-residential structures (N = 97) Area Residential structure Number (%) Interior room 18 (25) 7 (28) 25 (26) 9 (13) 6 (24) 15 (16) Basement Non-residential structure Number (%) Closet 15 (20) – Bathtub 13 (18) – Bathroom Cooler Tornado shelter Cara 9 (12) – 4 (6) – 5 (20) 5 (5) – 4 (16) – Crawling space 2 (3) – a 13 (13) 12 (12) 2 (3) 72 (100) 15 (16) 3 (12) Safe room Total Total Number (%) 25 (100) 4 (4) 4 (4) 2 (2) 2 (2) 97 (100) Includes under non-resident structure Places used for shelter by the 97 respondents who complied with the tornado warnings are listed in Table 2. These are divided into two groups: (1) residential structures (e.g. mobile homes and permanent houses, including duplexes and apartment complexes) and (2) non-residential structures (e.g. churches, restaurants, retail stores, and hospitals). Table 2 suggests that the area most widely used as shelter (25 of 97 respondents) was an interior room, specifically, a room inside the house without windows. Interior rooms of non-residential buildings, primarily churches where they were attending Sunday services, were used by seven of these respondents. The remaining 18 respondents used an interior room of their residential building. Fifteen respondents reported seeking shelter in basements, six of them used church basements for shelter and one sought shelter in a neighbour’s basement. Another 15 respondents sought shelter in a closet, and bathtubs and bathrooms were used for safety by 13 and 12 respondents, respectively. Five respondents, who were in a gas station, restaurant, or retail store, used a commercial cooler as shelter. Four respondents went to nearby tornado shelters; two of these four were living in mobile homes. Another four respondents were already in a car, or moved to a car and drove perpendicular (either to the right or left) of the approaching tornado for safety. The NOAA assessment report also claims that some Joplin residents ‘‘mistakenly drove their vehicles into the tornado path, but somehow lived to tell of it’’ (NOAA 2011, 2). Two respondents went to a safe room and another two to the home’s crawl space for protection (see Table 2). Use of other forms of protection (e.g. standing behind a table, desk, or bench) was not reported by any respondents. Some respondents mentioned that they covered themselves with a blanket or mattress. As noted, 26 people were injured and they took shelter in the interior rooms, closets, bathtubs, or bathrooms of both residential and non-residential buildings. People who took shelter in other places did not sustain any injuries. All three deaths occurred in the interior room, closet, or in bathtubs. Evidence provided above suggests that the tornado warning system in Joplin performed at least adequately on 22 May 2011; the overwhelming majority of residents of this city obtained warnings via many sources, including commercial and weather radio, telephone 123 1522 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 Table 3 Reported construction year of residential structures by period and type (N = 141) Type 2010–2000 Number (%) Single detached 1999–1980 Number (%) 1979–1960 Number (%) Before 1960 Number (%) Total Number (%) 18 (62) 22 (58) 42 (89) 24 (89) 106 (75) Apartment 5 (18) 13 (34) 2 (4) 2 (7) 22 (16) Mobile home 3 (10) Townhouse 3 (10) 3 (8) 29 (100) 38 (100) Total – 3 (7) – 47 (100) – 6 (4) 1 (4) 7 (5) 27 (100) 141 (100) calls, and television. In addition to tornado sirens, weather radio began providing tornado warnings at 5:17 pm CDT—24 min before the tornado hit the city. Additionally, response to the tornado warning was also satisfactory. 4.3 Housing characteristics Adequate warning is not effective if those at risk have no access to shelter (Balluz et al. 2000). The lack of a basement in a house and/or the inability to gain access to a nearby shelter is an important factor for responding to tornado warnings. Only eight respondents had a basement in their home. The absence of basements in houses in Joplin is not surprising; according to the Jasper County Assessor’s Office, nearly 78 % of houses in the county lack basements, due in part to rocky ground and a high water table (Joplin Globe 2011b). Joplin has an even lower percentage of basements compared to Jasper County communities as a whole. The city is located near the borders of four states (Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas); this area contained numerous lead and zinc mines that were operational from the late 1800s and early 1900s through the early 1950s. There are many locations situated over old mine shafts, which has resulted in subsidence problems; obviously, this makes the construction of basements difficult and impractical. Several studies (e.g. Grazulis 1993; Balluz et al. 2000) have recommended the use of an interior room in the house as an alternative for people without basements. However, depending on the specific conditions of such a house, an interior room may fail to provide adequate protection, particularly for high magnitude tornadoes. Most of the houses in Joplin are old; nearly 53 % of all respondents reported living in homes constructed more than 30 years earlier (Table 3). Moreover, older houses were constructed according to the standards of the time, which are far less rigorous than today’s much stricter building codes. According to Keith Stammer, Director of JCEOC, many of these older houses are not secured to their foundation; some do not even have a foundation. Field survey data revealed that 82 % of the respondents lived in houses made of wood. The majority of respondents had no idea if their domicile was anchored to its foundation or whether hurricane roof straps were installed. After the tornado the Joplin City Council encouraged residents to use hurricane straps to strengthen any new housing construction (Joplin Globe 2011b). An analysis of 2011 other USA tornadoes and Joplin tornado fatalities by location showed that the largest percentage of deaths occurred in business facilities (e.g. hospitals, nursing homes, restaurants, churches, gas stations, and retail stores), respectively (Table 4). Compared to the other USA tornado fatalities, 35 % more fatalities occurred in Joplin in business facilities largely because the tornado directly hit many such facilities. No other known tornado has destroyed or damaged so many business facilities in the past. 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 Table 4 Tornado fatalities by location, 2011 1523 Circumstance Mobile home 112 (28) Permanent home 164 (41) Joplin Number (%) – 65 (41) Vehicle 19 (5) 15 (10) Business 26 (7) 66 (42) Outside/open Other/unknown Source: Based on data provided from SPC (2012) Other USA tornado fatalities Number (%) Total 6 (2) 2 (1) 69 (17) 10 (6) 396 (100) 158 (100) Some of the many severely affected business facilities in Joplin included St. John’s Regional Medical Center, the 15th Street Wal-Mart Supercenter, the Home Depot store, the Pizza Hut and AT&T store on South Range Line Road, and several other stores, churches and nursing homes. Six people died in St. John’s Medical Center, two died in the Pizza Hut, seven in Home Depot, three in the Wal-Mart Supercenter, three in Heights Baptists Church, another three in Elks Lodge, and 10 in the Greenbriar nursing home (Zagier 2011). Because the tornado occurred on Sunday evening and on Joplin High School graduation day, many people from within and outside the city were present in such facilities, particularly in churches, big box and other stores, and restaurants. The graduation ceremony was concluded by the time when the tornado struck Joplin.5 Stores, though, were still open. Although many of these facilities had designated safer areas, these areas did not offer a high level of protection against an FE-5 tornado. Table 4 further shows that exactly equal proportion of tornado fatalities occurred in permanent homes in the United States and Joplin in 2011. However, using the US tornado fatalities data from 1985 through 2007 Simmons and Sutter (2011) reported that permanent homes accounted for 31 % of all deaths during the study period.6 Ten per cent more tornado deaths occurred in Joplin relative to the US in permanent homes probably because of the absence of a basement and inadequate structural conditions in housing units of the city. According to a NOAA assessment team report, many Joplin residents took shelter after receiving the tornado warnings in the most appropriate location (e.g. interior rooms and hallways) within their permanent homes. Unfortunately, a considerable number of them did not survive (NOAA 2011). Information presented in Table 4 suggests that 112 (28 %) of the 396 US tornado victims died in mobile homes; the corresponding national percentage was 43 for 1985–2007 period (Simmons and Sutter 2011). This means that a much lower proportion of deaths occurred in mobile homes in the United States in 2011 than the 1985–2007 period. Surprisingly, no tornado deaths occurred in mobile homes in Joplin (Table 4). According to the Joplin Community Profile, of a total 21,362 housing units, 350 (2 %) were mobile homes in 2009 (Joplin, Missouri (MO) Profile 2011). This percentage is much lower than 5 Many respondents suspected that the number of deaths would have been higher if the Joplin High School graduation had been held at the school auditorium rather than on the Southwest Missouri State campus, which was outside of the tornado’s path. After such a ceremony, people generally remain in the area for some time to socialize, and maintenance personnel also stay for cleaning purposes. 6 For 2000–2010 period, the permanent homes accounted for 32 % of all tornado fatalities in the United States (SPC 2011). 123 1524 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 the corresponding national percentage. Field surveys combined with a GIS analysis revealed that almost all the mobile home units in Joplin were outside the tornado path. 5 Conclusion This study has explored the probable reasons for the high number of deaths caused by the 22 May 2011, Joplin, Missouri, tornado. Five reasons seem to be associated with the high number of tornado-related fatalities in Joplin: (1) the sheer magnitude of the event; (2) its path through commercial and densely populated areas; (3) the size of the damage area; (4) the physical characteristics of homes in Joplin; and, to some extent, (5) a desensitized attitude towards tornado warnings on the part of some residents. Because of holiday weekend and the Joplin High School graduation there were many out-of-town people in Joplin on the day of the tornado. However, neither of these is pursued as possible reasons for so many fatalities in the city. Even on weekdays, Joplin attracts visitors from neighbouring communities who seek medical treatment and other services.7 Moreover, many people work in Joplin, but live in the neighbouring communities. Contrary to initial suspicion, tornado warning failure and/or timeliness should not be blamed for the large number of deaths caused by this event in Joplin. Still, 10 % of surveyed respondents did not receive tornado warnings. Furthermore, 23 % of respondents did not comply with warnings after receiving them. This indicates a need on the part of emergency management officials to further improve the existing systems of disseminating tornado warning information so that all at-risk populations will receive the intended warning. Increased public education is also needed to improve residents’ response to tornado warnings. This study found that both residential and non-residential buildings in Joplin failed to protect many people from a high magnitude tornado. Although an EF-5 tornado is unlikely to hit Joplin in the near future, Joplin residents need shelter options. Given the physiography of the region, most notably the hard near-surface rock stratum underlying the Joplin area, several alternatives to basements are proposed; one is the construction of safe rooms. Building an in-house safe room costs approximately $8,000–$12,000, and public authorities should provide financial incentives for their construction.8 Crawl spaces can also be used as tornado shelters if there is direct access to such spaces from within the house. Given the geologic conditions that restrict the construction of basements, Joplin city authorities should also consider construction of community tornado shelters.9 Owners of non-residential buildings, particularly stores, should consider enhancing/creating safer shelter facilities within such buildings. Implementations of these recommendations may help the community to avoid such a high death toll in future tornado events. 7 Joplin has two large medical facilities, a growing medical spin-off industry, numerous restaurants and an active trucking industry, as well as shopping facilities. 8 In the 1990s, FEMA provided residents of several cities in Kansas and Oklahoma grants in the range of $3,000–$5,000 to incorporate a concrete safe room into their existing homes (Pattan 2003). 9 After a destructive tornado affected Seneca, Missouri (20 miles southeast of Joplin), in 2008, the city built such a community shelter. 123 Nat Hazards (2012) 64:1511–1526 1525 Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge the grant from the Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado at Boulder, which supported this research. 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