Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service Pricing, News and Analysis for Buying and Supplying Ethanol-Blended Fuel and Biodiesel November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 Ethanol Futures (cts/gal contract price) December 2014 CBOT 194.80 January 2015 February 2015 174.70 167.90 Settlement Thursday, November 20, 2014 March 2015 166.40 Source: Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices U.S. RINs (prices in U.S. $/RIN) Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. U.S. Ethanol RINs Current Yr 0.4775-0.5200 0.5075-0.5300 0.5400-0.6000 0.5650-0.5850 0.5700-0.5800 0.54750 Previous Yr 0.4850-0.5050 0.5000-0.5200 0.5300-0.5800 0.5300-0.5800 0.5650-0.5750 0.53700 U.S. Cellulosic RINs Current Yr N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Previous Yr 0.4150-0.4250 0.4150-0.4250 0.4150-0.4250 0.4150-0.4250 0.4150-0.4250 0.42000 U.S. Biodiesel RINs Current Yr 0.5200-0.5550 0.5250-0.5700 0.5500-0.6500 0.5800-0.6100 0.6000-0.6100 0.57700 Previous Yr 0.5000-0.5100 0.5100-0.5300 0.5400-0.6000 0.5600-0.5900 0.5650-0.5750 0.54800 U.S. Advanced Biofuel RINs Current Yr 0.5100-0.5300 0.5150-0.5700 0.5400-0.6300 0.5700-0.5900 0.5900-0.6000 0.56450 Previous Yr 0.4900-0.5050 0.5100-0.5275 0.5400-0.5800 0.5600-0.5700 0.5650-0.5700 0.54175 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. Chicago (prices in U.S. $/gal.) Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Ethanol 2.4500-2.4650 2.4850-2.4950 2.4650-2.4800 2.3800-2.4500 2.3000-2.5000 2.44700 DP ETH 2.4600-2.4700 2.4900-2.5100 2.4700-2.5000 2.4000-2.5500 2.3900-2.5300 2.47700 B100 SME 2.8400-2.9500 2.7800-2.9500 2.8400-2.9400 2.8300-2.9400 2.8400-2.9500 2.88600 RBOB Unl 2.0725-2.0825 1.9713-1.9738 1.9732-1.9832 1.9638-1.9738 1.9676-1.9776 1.99393 RBOB Pre 2.6775-2.6875 2.5763-2.5788 2.5782-2.5882 2.5738-2.5838 2.5626-2.5726 2.59793 CBOB Unl 2.0275-2.0375 1.9263-1.9288 1.9282-1.9382 1.9238-1.9338 1.9126-1.9226 1.94793 ULSD 2.6411-2.6511 2.4689-2.4789 2.4313-2.5063 2.5940-2.6040 2.6300-2.6600 2.56656 Chicago Rule 11 (prices in U.S. $/gal.) Current Yr Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. 2.3500-2.4500 2.4200-2.4800 2.4600-2.5000 2.3300-2.5100 2.3600-2.4300 2.42900 Ethanol Market Overview: Ethanol rallies back after DOE dump The pendulum of ethanol prices swung wide and often over the last week, particularly after the government’s weekly ethanol data report offered differing data points, and perhaps ignited some knee-jerk reactions to them. Physical ethanol markets, particularly in the more liquid Chicago area, continued to rally over the first half of the week right up until DOE released its supply and output figures. Then the market spiraled lower in a scramble of selling. Since then, cooler heads prevailed and, perhaps, a deeper look at the numbers, too, and by presstime spot prices indicated that another run higher appeared in the works. Prompt same-day ethanol transfers at the Chicago area’s Argo terminal fetched up to $2.55/gal at one point at midweek, jumping as much as 30cts week-to-week. But after weekly figures from DOE hit the street and revealed near-record ethanol production, offers plunged to $2.40/gal just a few hours later. In-tank transfer for a several days to a week forward traded over $2.49/gal earlier in the week and still fetched $2.45/gal at around the time of the report’s release, sank under $2.40/gal later the same day, with $2.38/gal getting done and offers floated in the middle $2.30s/gal. The fall-off at midweek became fully evident in rail-related Rule 11 trades to the Windy City area. Pre-report trading for prompt shipping at $2.50-$2.51/gal became a distant memory by See page 2 for more spot pricing locations continued on page 3 In Each Issue ... Ethanol Market Overview .......................... 1 Renewable Fuels Averages........................ 5 Biodiesel/Ethanol Plant Profitability.........10 Ethanol and Gasoline Component Spot Prices ........................ 1-2 Biofuels Stock Performance...................... 6 Renewable Fuel Feedstock/ Co-Product Price Index............................11 Block Term Contract Prices in Key Markets........................................... 3 In Key Commodity Markets....................... 8 Bulk Truck Spot Prices in Key Markets........................................... 3 Inside Washington..................................... 7 European, Brazilian and CBI Markets..............................................13 Key Supply and Demand Statistics.................................................... 8 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service is an OPIS Publication | www.opisnet.com News of the Week.....................................14 | 888.301.2645 | [email protected] Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices (prices in U.S $/gal.) Gulf Coast Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. Ethanol 2.5300-2.5600 2.4100-2.4800 2.3800-2.4300 2.3200-2.3800 2.2700-2.3900 2.41500 B100 SME 2.8500-3.0000 2.8500-2.9500 2.8800-2.9800 2.8700-2.9700 2.8800-2.9800 2.92100 RBOB Unl 1.8650-1.8750 1.8013-1.8113 1.8482-1.8582 1.8488-1.8588 1.8301-1.8401 1.84368 RBOB Pre 2.0950-2.1050 2.0313-2.0413 2.0782-2.0882 2.0788-2.0888 2.0601-2.0701 2.07368 CBOB Unl 1.8125-1.8675 1.7788-1.8138 1.8082-1.8232 1.8138-1.8338 1.8026-1.8101 1.81643 Unleaded 1.8825-1.8950 1.8363-1.8663 1.8482-1.8732 1.8563-1.8788 1.8476-1.8526 1.86368 ULSD 2.3036-2.3061 2.2814-2.2864 2.2588-2.2638 2.2240-2.2390 2.2500-2.2525 2.26656 61ULSD 2.3036-2.3061 2.2814-2.2864 2.2588-2.2638 2.2240-2.2390 2.2500-2.2525 2.26656 New York Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. Ethanol 2.4400-2.4600 2.4000-2.4500 2.2500-2.3000 2.1500-2.2000 2.3500-2.3700 2.33700 ITT ETH 2.4500-2.4700 2.4100-2.4600 2.3900-2.4300 2.1700-2.2500 2.3700-2.4100 2.38100 Ethanol Fwd 2.1500-2.2500 2.2400-2.2900- 2.1900-2.2400 2.0800-2.1500 2.2900-2.3100 2.21900 B100 SME 2.9700-3.0700 3.0000-3.1000 3.0300-3.1300 3.0000-3.1000 3.0500-3.1500 3.06000 RBOB Unl 2.1175-2.1275 2.0563-2.0913 2.0732-2.0832 2.0713-2.0813 2.0516-2.0616 2.08148 RBOB Pre 2.2875-2.2975 2.3063-2.3163 2.2982-2.3082 2.3088-2.3188 2.2926-2.3026 2.30368 CBOB Unl 2.1175-2.1275 2.0563-2.0913 2.0732-2.0832 2.0713-2.0813 2.0516-2.0616 2.08148 CBOB Pre 2.2875-2.2975 2.3063-2.3163 2.2982-2.3082 2.3088-2.3188 2.2926-2.3026 2.30368 Unleaded *****–***** *****–***** *****–***** *****–***** *****–***** ***** ULSD 2.4561-2.4661 2.4439-2.4539 2.4063-2.4163 2.3840-2.3940 2.3950-2.4050 2.42206 Los Angeles Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. Ethanol 2.7000-2.7200 2.7100-2.7500 2.6900-2.7250 2.5500-2.6700 2.5900-2.6500 2.67550 CARBOB - R 1.9625-1.9825 1.9363-1.9463 1.9782-2.0032 1.9988-2.0038 1.9776-1.9876 1.97768 CARBOB - P 2.0725-2.0925 2.0463-2.0563 2.0832-2.1082 2.1038-2.1088 2.0826-2.0926 2.08468 ULSD 2.4111-2.4211 2.3388-2.3488 2.3176-2.3276 2.2837-2.2937 2.3080-2.3205 2.33709 Nebraska (fob Railcar) Ethanol Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. 2.3300-2.3600 2.3600-2.4200 2.3800-2.4000 2.3000-2.4300 2.2900-2.3300 2.36000 Tampa Ethanol Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. 2.5500-2.6000 2.6000-2.6500 2.6500-2.7000 2.5600-2.6500 2.5600-2.5900 2.61100 Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. 2.4700-2.5400 2.5000-2.5500 2.5000-2.5500 2.4000-2.5000 2.3800-2.4300 2.48200 Dallas Ethanol San Francisco Ethanol Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. 2.7000-2.7200 2.7100-2.7500 2.6900-2.7250 2.5500-2.6700 2.5900-2.6400 2.67450 Fri. 11/07 Mon. 11/10 Tues. 11/11 Wed. 11/12 Thurs. 11/13 Wkly. Avg. 2.5900-2.6200 2.6250-2.6800 2.6500-2.7000 2.5400-2.6200 2.5800-2.6000 2.62050 Pacific Northwest Ethanol Calif. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Carbon Credit: $/MT; Carbon Intensity Pts: $/CI; Carbon Credit per Gallon Diesel: $/gal; Carbon Credit per Gallon Gasoline: $/gal) Fri. 11/14 Mon. 11/17 Tues. 11/18 Wed. 11/19 Thurs. 11/20 Wkly. Avg. Carb Credit 26.000-27.000 25.500-26.500 25.500-26.500 25.500-26.500 25.500-26.500 26.1000 CI Pts 0.0021-0.0022 0.0021-0.0022 0.0021-0.0022 0.0021-0.0022 0.0021-0.0022 0.00215 CC CPG Dsl 0.0034-0.0036 0.0034-0.0035 0.0034-0.0035 0.0034-0.0035 0.0034-0.0035 0.00342 CC CPG Gas 0.0038-0.0039 0.0037-0.0039 0.0037-0.0039 0.0037-0.0039 0.0037-0.0039 0.00382 Methodology and Definitions: OPIS derives ethanol, gasoline and biodiesel prices from many means, including surveying buyers and sellers via phone/e-mail, and receiving postings electronically from producers and purchasers. While OPIS makes best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of its prices, it in no way guarantees either the accuracy or timeliness of any of the data included herein. Definitions are as follows: Ethanol Spot Price (Bulk Barge/Rail): These are large quantity pure ethanol deals transacted or being discussed in certain FOB markets. Brazil Ethanol: Undenatured anhydrous ethanol cargoes, FOB Brazil terminals for export, typically 50,000 bbl or more available 5-30 days from the date of publication. The assessment generally reflects price at the Santos export terminal, though others may be used for assessment purposes. Block Term Contract Values: These are the three-to-six month contract deals between large buyers and sellers of pure ethanol. Some are done as fixed, and those deals are reported in the “Fixed” column. Other deals are done based on a differential to certain gasoline benchmarks (usually conventional spot unleaded). Those formulae are tracked and reported by market each week in the “Formula”column and calculated (based on the closing Thursday price of the gasoline benchmark) to arrive at a “Formula Calculated” price. All deals (“Fixed” and “Formula”) are reported from a weighted average survey. Bulk Truck Spot Prices (Rack): These are the prices for truck quantities of pure ethanol at storage points in the given market. These prices are not posted – they are offered to buyers given supply and demand dynamics at prices discovered and published by OPIS. Splash Blend Rack Prices: These are the average of the Thursday closing price that producers and resellers are posting at various rack locations. Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts. Splash Blend Producer Prices: These are the average of the Thursday closing price that producers (not resellers) are posting at various rack locations. Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credits: Traded in U.S. dollars per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2), this represents the daily traded price range or range of bids and offers on carbon credits generated for compliance under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard program implemented by the California Air Resources Board. Trading is for credits transferable in the current calendar year, until the last month of the year when deals for the following year may also be considered. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 2 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 later afternoon, when $2.33-$2.35/gal reportedly traded hands at last word. The one market that gave up a lot of ground even before DOE figures went public for the week was New York Harbor, where November ethanol barges plunged to $2.25/gal – though trading remained thin to nonexistent – only to see price talks shift down another dime after the report. But it also snapped sharply higher in the latter part of the week, with December barges once talked around $2.10/gal pulling into the upper $2.30s/gal. And Chicago in-tank trades for the following week jumped back up to $2.50/gal in a revived rally that had presstime talks moving to new highs for the week – at $2.60/gal and up. What caused the Jekyll-and-Hyde ethanol market? First, the market appeared to focus more on the unanticipated size and rapidity of the ethanol producer comeback reported by DOE. The agency had plants making 970,000 b/d, almost a record high, after adding 24,000 b/d, or 2.5%, for the week ending Nov. 14. Since the first week of October, ethanol output is up four of the last five weeks, climbing 9.6% since then, and now runs 7.3% ahead of the same week last year. The release of the number seemed to stop a November ethanol rally in its tracks. Though some conceded that the end of some seasonal plant maintenance as well as generally rising ethanol spot prices did encourage more output, as expected – it was far more than most anticipated from DOE. However, a more sober look at DOE figures revealed a bullish patina. It may have taken some time to notice that after a couple weeks of sturdy builds, but the weekly report also had overall ethanol inventory down 2.1% nationally week-toweek, sinking 370,000 bbl, with 17.335 million bbl in storage. In addition, blending numbers from DOE appeared slack, at best, lately. Total blender inputs of ethanol dropped 6,000 b/d from the week before, and at 854,000 b/d, ran just about on par with year-ago blending. Also for the week, blender inputs ran 12% under the week’s ethanol production rate; a week ago that difference was 9.1% and back over the first week of October the numbers were dead even. Outside the impact of DOE numbers, regional supply imbalances continue to show up, and market players still note challenging railroad availability contributing to a pricier prompt environment, which is not made any easier by winter storms that made an early appearance in some regions. EPA’s RFS limbo helps incite RINs rally A surge in trading activity accompanied sharply higher prices for EPA’s Renewable Identification Number credits used to comply with the agency’s federal Renewable Fuel Standard blending requirements – but part of the problem is as the year passes the midway point of its penultimate month, nobody is sure exactly what those requirements are. Early last week offers on the typical grain-based ethanol RINs credits, EPA designated “D6,” for current-year vintage backed quickly backed up, and bids followed as deals popped more than 6cts higher in the space of just a few hours of trading time. That had deals done up to 59cts followed by In Key Markets Ethanol Buying Prices City, State Ethanol Truck & Spot Prices Ethanol Spot Price -------- Block Term Q2-Q3 Contract Values -------Bulk Truck Fixed Formula (Bulk Barge/Rail) Formula (calculated) Spot Prices (rack) Albany, NY 240.00 261.50 Houston, TX 233.00 265.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl -34.5 168.26 Splash Blend Splash Blend Rack Price Producer Prices City, State Spot Prices (Rack) Rack Price Producer Prices N/A 250.00 280.93 N/A Cleveland, OH 245.00 251.50 245.00 N/A N/A Decatur, IL 243.00 240.00 N/A Des Moines, IA 240.50 257.13 245.73 New Haven, CT 239.50 269.25 NYMEX RBOB Unl -31.5 171.26 N/A N/A N/A New York, NY 236.00 265.75 NYMEX RBOB Unl -35 167.76 245.50 N/A N/A Chicago, IL 240.00 254.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl -45 157.76 250.00 245.00 245.00 Louisville, KY 243.00 N/A N/A N/A 248.00 N/A N/A Minneapolis, MN 235.00 N/A N/A N/A 240.00 247.78 245.56 St. Louis, MO 244.00 253.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl -44 158.76 251.00 292.50 N/A Los Angeles, CA (90.1) 262.00 267.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl -30 172.76 272.00 N/A N/A Phoenix, AZ 259.50 265.00 NYMEX RBOB Unl -32.5 170.26 N/A 260.00 260.00 San Francisco, CA (90.1) 261.50 267.50 NYMEX RBOB Unl -30 172.76 270.00 N/A N/A Pacific Northwest 259.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 348.00 N/A Doniphan, NE 235.00 248.24 239.00 Fargo, ND 237.00 250.85 239.54 Indianapolis, IN 243.00 N/A N/A Kansas City, KS 240.00 256.24 246.45 Madison, WI 249.00 259.88 N/A Omaha, NE 238.50 251.39 247.48 Peoria/Pekin, IL 242.00 N/A N/A Sioux City, IA 237.00 241.78 236.75 Sioux Falls, SD 237.50 245.51 235.63 Topeka, KS 242.00 254.27 250.82 Wichita, KS 237.50 248.70 239.33 Denver, CO 249.50 292.67 N/A www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 3 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 confirmed trades at 60cts, up just short a dime from the day before and adding a dozen cents or so week-to-week. So, for some, the economic incentive favoring RINs is clearly apparent this month. In fact, RINs prices had been simmering up most of November before reaching a boiling point last week. Prices did ebb from their highs by midweek, but remained volatile at presstime, trading at 57cts/RIN and higher. This meant they had retained most of their recent rise. The less liquid vintages and varieties of RINs went along for the D6 rollercoaster ride, and some trading of the D4 biomass-based diesel credits for 2014 indicated it maintained a 2-4cts premium over D6 ethanol RINs. However, the recent short-squeeze visiting RINs markets and the resulting rise in credit prices are unlikely to gin up the kind of “RINsanity” $1-plus price spike that erupted in 2013, according to analysts at Citi Research. “Given our forecast of 17-billion gal of 2014 RIN generation, healthy carryover stocks and the final rule expectations that should modestly rollback the 2014 write-downs, we do not expect a bout of RIN-sanity,” the analysts explained. Even after the market cooled a bit, D6 RINs values are up 26% since the end of summer. What awoke RINs from what had until recently been fairly quiet and stable trading ranges? The first answer on many lips is a rumor, or belief, that the EPA would imminently publish its final rule for calendar year 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard biofuel blending requirements. The ideal was that some obligated parties stepped in to buy “insurance” with RINs purchases. However, as behind as EPA is with the rules – finalizing this year’s requirements when the year is almost over – some insiders quashed the idea that it was on the cusp of release. One market veteran said that the later EPA waits, the more likely it will stick closer to the proposed rule offered floated more than a year ago, which would cut total biofuel blending requirements by 8% compared to the 2013 mandate level. Certainly, there were a lot more reports of refiners, followed by traders, stepping into the market to move RINs early last week. And some of that momentum held up into the latter part of the week as well. One refiner source upped its confirmed RINs transactions by 47% over the same period of the week before, reaching 28 transactions at midweek. Though the apex of the RINs rally was short-lived, rising ethanol prices lately, amid logistical issues that have, in some cases, exacerbated locally short supplies, said market sources, also helped encourage more interest in RINs credits. Ethanol exports, especially given a distinct and extended lack of imports, also got a nod from some in the market. The rally in ethanol spot prices so far in November – even after the midweek dump, Chicago prompt ethanol values are still up 33% this month – means that in many cases ethanol prices are lately running a premium to gasoline. When the option presents itself, that might drive some obligated parties to buy RINs instead of actually blending costly ethanol into their gasoline. For example, at the end of October Chicago ethanol spots traded about 32.3cts/gal cheaper than prompt gasoline in the city, but by the middle of last week Chicago dead-prompt deals hit as high as $2.55/gal – putting it at a premium of more than 62cts over prompt gasoline values. Still, Citi analysts did note that “recent dislocations in ethanol blending economics encourages trading of RIN credits.” Since RINs generation is more costly, it could encourage some obligated parties to up gasoline exports. Also, it was not unexpected that ethanol blending might bow to recent economics, said Citi, noting the ethanol blend rate into the finished gasoline pool had sagged to the lowest level since January. “While we have been bullish ethanol outright and versus gasoline since September, current pricing dynamics should not persist in our view,” Citi added, pointing to forward indications in the market. One example of a futures snapshot: by the middle of last week, NYMEX December RBOB settled at $2.0276/ gal, holding a 7.96cts premium to CBOT ethanol futures at $1.948/gal for the same month. January RBOB settling $2.0150/gal ran 26.8cts over January ethanol that settled $1.747/gal on the CBOT. The RINs balance remains complicated, as well, with absence of any final word from EPA on 2014 requirements. One trading source in the market estimates that the current generation of D6 ethanol RINs and the EPA-allowable carry from last year suggests the RINs market will end 2014 with something like a 12% RINs surplus, at mandated blend rates as currently calculated. “Fundamentally, we would expect RINs prices to trade lower based on last year’s carryover RINs bank,” commented Tim Cheung at ClearView Energy Partners. He estimates the carry could be about 1.2 billion RINs. “However, until EPA actually finalizes the rule and indicates plans for future years, implied uncertainty could actually ignite a rally,” Cheung wrote. EPA data signals higher October biodiesel output While the U.S. Energy Department continues to work on adjustments that have suspended its monthly biodiesel report since midsummer, the latest Renewable Identification Number generation report from EPA suggests output rebounded last month. The U.S. biofuels industry collectively produced nearly 150.3 million gal of biomass-based diesel over October, up www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 4 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 5.7% from September output, according to RINs generated and reported for the month in the EPA Moderated Transaction System. Since the EPA data is for biomass-based diesel, it includes of both traditional biodiesel output as well as a smaller portion of renewable diesel. Meanwhile, the government’s EMTS data for October also revealed – for the fourth month in a row – reportable RINs-creating gallons of both cellulosic diesel (D7) and cellulosic biofuel (D3). In particular, it showcased the recent expansion of cellulosic biofuel “D3” production generally tied to renewable clean natural gas or liquid natural gas, which EPA last summer qualified under cellulosic and advance fuel National Renewable Fuels Averages Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks 235.000 270.581 264.436 212.573 229.093 E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 268.957 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 386.431 382.367 280.583 271.096 --.-- 274.057 273.634 Key Renewable Fuels Regional Averages Northeast Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks 236.000 280.930 --.-- 217.653 236.954 E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 287.344 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 410.000 394.000 257.395 281.000 --.-- 250.760 252.484 Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 236.000 279.575 255.000 215.807 259.864 285.672 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 396.000 360.000 245.180 251.040 --.-- 246.133 248.746 Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) Southeast Gulf Coast 233.000 257.436 291.010 200.223 225.334 245.484 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 296.310 346.694 241.062 232.665 --.-- 255.847 258.125 Midwest Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) 235.500 257.819 253.938 209.392 226.573 258.653 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 362.392 347.931 301.940 301.462 --.-- 296.355 300.192 Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax) Rockies 233.000 283.556 271.833 211.219 234.287 266.175 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 389.000 --.-- 325.536 --.-- --.-- 318.599 300.230 E-85 Retail (w/ tax) West Coast Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/o RIN Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks 260.500 339.625 260.000 222.990 255.799 306.452 B100 w/o RIN B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD 430.968 442.500 287.322 279.000 --.-- 274.900 257.050 www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 5 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service pathways under the current Renewable Fuel Standard. In October, EPA had nearly 7.048 million gal of that D3 cellulosic biofuel produced, slipping back 6.7% from September’s level, but still more than double the volume produced in August. And August had constituted the first month of more than token output. “All of the year-to-day [D3] volume is from biogas,” noted one industry source, but noted that ethanol generation is coming in right behind it. Cellulosic diesel, those creating D7 RINs credits, indicated 24,030 gallons during October, up 40.8% from September output. Previously, production of the small cellulosic diesel volumes quantified by EPA came from Canada-based Ensyn Fuels, which operates a 3 million gal/yr biofuel plant in Ontario. Meantime, advanced biofuels that carry D5 RINs credits climbed 36% from the month before, topping 4.77 million gal in October, but that was still well behind generation levels that started the year at more than 26.5 million gal in January and well behind July, which had more than 14 million gal during the month. Conventional corn-based ethanol output, mostly, makes up the D6 RINs category, and that indicated output of typical fuel ethanol at nearly 1.157 billion gal during October eased up 0.89% month-to-month. It also represented the softest monthly output of conventional ethanol since February. EPA’s data for October indicated that more than 1.4 billion RINs were generated during the month. Richmond may nix KMP rail facility permit Crude-by-rail deliveries into Kinder Morgan’s Richmond, Calif., terminal are under fire by the City of Richmond. The City Council asking the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) to revoke Kinder Morgan’s permit to transport crude oil via rail. The Council is seeking to halt deliveries into and out of the facility Kinder Morgan leases at the BNSF rail yard in Richmond, citing concerns regarding public safety and potential environmental impacts. November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 to California is around 3.34 million bbl, up roughly 43% from the same time last year. Stock Market Movers: SEC filing: KiOR unable to file quarterly financial report Cellulosic biofuels producer KiOR, which recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, is unable to file its quarterly financial report with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in a timely manner, the company explained in a Nov. 13 filing with the agency. KiOR’s stock was delisted from NASDAQ on Nov. 6. “KiOR, Inc. has determined that it is unable to file its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended Sept. 30, 2014 in a timely manner and it does not expect to be able to file the Form 10-Q within the five-day extension permitted by the rules of the United States SEC,” the company explained in the Nov. 13 filing. Previously, KiOR filed for bankruptcy in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. “The bankruptcy case Weekly Biofuels Stock Performance Company Symbol Abengoa ABGB Aemetis AMTXD ò Amyris AMRS ñ Andersons ANDE ñ ò 11/20/14 11/13/14 change % change 14.29 15.05 -$0.76 -5.32% 6.60 7.01 -$0.41 -6.21% 2.93 2.88 $0.05 1.71% 57.01 54.12 $2.89 5.07% Archer Daniels Midland ADM ñ 52.57 50.81 $1.76 3.35% Aventine Renewable Energy AVRW ò 11.00 11.75 -$0.75 -6.82% BIOX Corporation BXIOF ó 0.540 0.540 $0.00 0.00% Bluefire Ethanol Fuels BFRE ñ 0.060 0.040 $0.02 33.33% Bunge BG ñ 90.66 88.41 $2.25 2.48% Cosan CZZ ò 8.77 9.37 -$0.60 -6.84% Codexis CDXS ñ 2.40 2.30 $0.100 4.17% GEVO GEVO ñ 0.43 0.36 $0.07 16.28% It was an existing permit for ethanol deliveries into the terminal that officials amended to allow Kinder Morgan to expand its slate and accept crude oil deliveries at the site. Green Earth Technologies GETG ñ 0.070 0.050 $0.020 28.57% Green Plains GPRE ñ 35.06 33.01 $2.05 5.85% GreenHunter Resources GRH ñ 1.420 1.250 $0.17 11.97% The terminal is set up to receive 100-car unit trains, with a capacity of about 70,000 bbl/train, said Kinder Morgan spokesman Richard Wheatley. GreenShift GERS ó 0.001 0.001 $0.000 0.00% Novozymes NVZMY ñ 46.42 46.18 $0.24 0.52% Kinder Morgan’s permit, issued last Feb. 3, allows the terminal to handle 15,650 b/d of outbound material on an annual basis. Both inbound and outbound loads vary from month to month, depending on scheduling for inbound crude through the BNSF railroad and the truck shipments that transport product elsewhere for refining. Pacific Ethanol PEIX ñ 14.180 13.510 $0.670 4.72% Renewable Energy Group REGI ò 10.75 9.69 $1.06 9.86% REX American Resources REX ñ 70.330 67.630 $2.70 3.84% Solazyme SZYM ò 2.91 3.44 -$0.530 -18.21% Texcom Resources TEXC ò 0.900 1.050 -$0.15 -16.67% Valero Energy VLO ñ 50.26 49.68 $0.58 1.15% DJIA DJI ñ 17,719.00 17,652.79 $66.21 0.37% Through September, the 2014 tally for crude-by-rail imports www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 6 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service comes after a severe reduction in the company’s workforce and the company has devoted substantially all of its remaining resources to the bankruptcy case, including a substantial portion of its accounting and financial reporting personnel and administrative resources. As a result, the company has determined that it is unable to file its Form 10-Q without unreasonable effort and expense,” KiOR added in the filing. Production at KiOR’s 13-million gal/yr renewable crude plant in Columbus, Miss., has been suspended since January in order to conserve cash. KiOR owes approximately $14.8 million to creditors, it previously explained. Included in the voluminous creditor list were trade groups Advanced Biofuels Association, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (although listed under its former name of National Petrochemical & Refiners Association) and the American Petroleum Institute. As KiOR explained in one of its Nov. 9 filings, “the debtor faced challenges in commercializing its technology and scaling its production to volumes necessary to meet its targets.” According to the same filing, as of the petition date, KiOR had approximately 71 employees, approximately 46 of which are exempt employees. A hearing to consider final approval of the post-petition financing is scheduled for Dec. 8 at 1 p.m. ET. Inside Washington: EPA delaying action on 2014 RFS until 2015 EPA will not enforce the final 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) this year, the agency announced on Nov. 21, essentially punting on the decision until next year. EPA’s 2014 RFS proposal, issued in November 2013, “generated a significant number of comments, particularly on the proposal’s ability to ensure continued progress toward achieving the law’s renewable fuel targets,” the agency explained in a three-paragraph statement. “Due to the delay in finalizing the standards for 2014, and given ongoing consideration of the issues presented by the commenters, the agency intends to take action on the 2014 standards rule in 2015. Looking forward, one of EPA’s objectives is to get back on the annual statutory timeline by addressing 2014, 2015, and 2016 standards in the next calendar year,” it added. In a proposed Federal Register notice accompanying the statement, EPA noted it intends “to take action on the 2014 standards rule in 2015 prior to or in conjunction with action on the 2015 standards rule.” Additionally, EPA “will be making modifications to the EPA-Moderated Transaction System (EMTS) to ensure that Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generated in November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 2012 are valid for demonstrating compliance with the 2013 applicable standards,” it added. EPA proposed nearly across-the-board cuts in its 2014 RFS proposal and on Aug. 22, EPA sent the final RFS targets to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), setting off a 90-day review period. However, the 90-day deadline ended on Thursday, Nov. 20, without OMB completing its review. From the statements received, it doesn’t appear anyone is happy with the delay, although biofuel groups are pleased EPA’s proposed cuts to the rule won’t be implemented. Here is a selection of comments: Renewable Fuels Association: “Deciding not to decide is not a decision. Unfortunately, the announcement today perpetuates the uncertainty that has plagued the continued evolution of biofuels production and marketing for a year. Nevertheless, the administration has taken a major step by walking away from a proposed rule that was wrong on the law, wrong on the market impacts, wrong for innovation and wrong for consumers.” American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: “The Obama administration’s decision to further delay issuing the 2014 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO), as legally required, is a gross dereliction of responsibility that leaves fuel refiners and the biofuels industry alike to navigate a course of ambiguity. Today’s announcement indicates that the administration plans to continuously mismanage this program in a manner that equates to playing Russian roulette with the nation’s fuel supply at the American consumer’s ultimate expense.... AFPM calls upon Congress to expeditiously resume work on repealing or significantly reforming the RFS. In the meantime, AFPM will seek legal intervention.” National Biodiesel Board: “This administration says over and over that it supports biodiesel, yet its actions with these repeated delays are undermining the industry. Biodiesel producers have laid off workers and idled production. Some have shut down altogether. We know that fuels policy is complex, but there is absolutely no reason that the biodiesel volume hasn’t been announced. We are urging the administration to finalize a 2014 rule as quickly as possible that puts this industry back on track for growth and puts our country back on track for ending our dangerous dependence on oil.” Growth Energy: “The EPA made the appropriate decision today to not finalize the 2014 RVO numbers. We commend them for listening to all stakeholders. Today’s announcement is a clear acknowledgement that the EPA’s proposed rule was flawed from the beginning. There was no way the methodology in the proposed rule would ever work, as it went against the very purpose and policy goals of the RFS. The EPA wisely decided not to finalize the rule so they could fix the flawed methodology.” www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 7 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 American Petroleum Institute: “The rule is already a year overdue and the administration has no intention of finalizing this year’s requirements before the year ends. It is unacceptable to expect refiners to provide the fuels Americans need with so much regulatory uncertainty. This is an example of government at its worst. The Renewable Fuel Standard was flawed from the beginning, horribly mismanaged and is now broken. The only real solution is for Congress to scrap the program and let consumers, not the federal government, choose the best fuel to put in their tanks.” 500+ groups urge Congress to pass tax extenders The National Association of Manufacturers and more than 500 organizations are urging Congress to pass tax extenders during its lame duck session. In a letter sent last week to both chambers of Congress, the organizations noted that “[f]ailure to extend these provisions is a tax increase. It will inject instability and uncertainty into the economy and weaken confidence in the employment marketplace. Acting promptly on this matter in lame duck will provide important predictability necessary for economic growth.” of Automobile Manufacturers, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Corn Growers Association, the National Council of Chain Restaurants, Natural Resources Defense Council and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Iowa biofuel producers request quick passage of tax extenders package Nine of Iowa’s advanced biofuel producers sent a letter last week to the state’s Congressional delegation encouraging the swift passage of a tax extenders package prior to final adjournment of the 113th Congress. “It is absolutely critical to our industry that this Congress pass a tax extenders package, which includes provisions for biodiesel blending, cellulosic production and accelerated depreciation, prior to final adjournment,” the letter states. Denny Mauser, a board member at Western Iowa Energy, said that the state’s entire congressional delegation “has shown steadfast support for these important policies, and today we’re calling on them to take concrete steps to advance legislation extending these vital provisions that support energy security, American jobs and a cleaner environment.” He added: “In the face of more than 100 years of preferential tax treatment for petroleum – a literal century of subsidies – these incentives keep advanced biofuel projects moving forward to the benefit of all Americans.” Earlier this year, the Senate Finance Committee passed a retroactive, two-year extension of approximately 40 expired tax incentives, which included the $1/gal biodiesel tax incentive and the $1.01/gal cellulosic ethanol tax credit. Some people believe Congress will use the Senate Finance Committee bill as a guide marker during lame duck. In Key Commodity Markets: In finished markets... Among the organizations that signed the letter were Growth Energy, the National Biodiesel Board, the Advanced Ethanol Council, Algae Biomass Organization, the Alliance Gasoline markets managed to limp along most of the last week, with some limited upside coming from futures Key Supply and Demand Statistics Ethanol Supply Gasoline Supply Ethanol Production Ethanol Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg Ethanol PADD 1 Inventories 6,092 6,173 6,033 PADD 1 Inventories 49,900 50,300 50,900 PADD 1 750 822 681 PADD 2 Inventories 5,590 5,763 5,822 PADD 2 Inventories 44,500 43,600 46,800 PADD 2 26,253 26,848 24,410 PADD 3 Inventories 3,030 3,010 2,775 PADD 3 Inventories 75,200 75,800 73,333 PADD 3 658 691 685 PADD 4 Inventories 392 382 351 PADD 4 Inventories 6,900 6,900 6,667 PADD 4 428 452 410 PADD 5 Inventories 2,230 2,376 2,133 PADD 5 Inventories 28,200 26,800 28,533 PADD 5 576 600 435 Total Inventories 17,334 17,704 17,114 206,233 Total Production 28,665 29,413 26,622 Total Inventories 204,700 203,400 Current Prev Mo 3-Yr Avg Gasoline Production Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg PADD 1 2,952 2,962 2,881 PADD 2 2,512 2,421 2,353 PADD 3 2,246 2,056 2,166 PADD 4 295 335 297 PADD 5 1,550 1,655 1,574 Total Production 9,555 9,429 9,270 www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 8 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 that benefited from a little short-covering ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday coming the following week. Still, the Harbor is the only east-of-the-Rockies market with cash gasoline prices holding above the $2/gal threshold, supported as it is by two-year low inventory levels and light imports. Despite being one of the strongest U.S. gasoline markets, prices are still at more than four-year lows and offer somewhat of a roadblock for imports. There was also some support for petroleum markets coming from a looming OPEC meeting at which prospects of a crude production cut increased as the world oil market continued to languish in apparent oversupply. Gasoline futures in the form of NYMEX RBOB for frontmonth December dropped 1.62cts on Thursday, but at $2.0276/gal it was still up 2.6cts from its week-ago price, a price that came with a dime-plus drop on the session. Since then, the contract stabilized and mostly settled a few cents over the $2.00 mark all week amid limited volumes. Crude prices did gain some ground Thursday, in part on the OPEC chatter, but the Merc’s December WTI contract that settled up a dollar at $75.58/bbl is only $1.37 higher than a week ago and it still represents a price that slid $4.94 since becoming the front-month contract. So currently, domestic, as well as international, crude benchmarks remain around multi-year lows, with abundant global supplies and sagging demand still seen exerting pressure on markets. Also currently, most expectations are for an overall OPEC output cut of 500,000-700,000 b/d, but few anticipate a decrease with any real bite to it. Goldman Sachs analysts said last week that the persistent slide in oil prices increased the likelihood that OPEC adjusts its output target lower. Domestically, the latest DOE petroleum data for the week ending Nov. 14 revealed a 2.6-million-bbl crude oil stock build, taking total supply to 381.1 million bbl nationally – the fattest U.S. crude inventory since early July. The weekly supply report from DOE did have East Coast gasoline stocks declining again over the week, slipping 443,000 bbl and dropping 4.8% behind year-ago stocks, but that masked RBOB supply that built 1.1 million bbl for the week. At 14.3 million bbl, however, East Coast RBOB remains a concern and one of the lowest levels reported for the region in the last couple years. Chicago CBOB numbers, meantime, are in the low-$1.90s, while Group 3 sub-octane and Gulf Coast CBOB are in the mid-to-low-$1.80s. Trading $1.9176/gal Thursday, CBOB in Chicago eased up 1.12cts on the day and fell 7.4cts behind its week-ago price. Gulf Coast CBOB traded down to $1.8101/gal, easing just 37 points on the day and 90 points week-to-week, however spot differentials tightened from a 23cts discount to the Merc at midweek, to a 21.75ct discount Thursday. A week ago, CBOB traded 18.25cts cheaper than the Merc benchmark. Languishing spot market prices, including out West where, notably, the Northwest cash values are down some 17cts over the course of the last week, left marketers with some solid margins heading into the weekend. Nationally, the average gross margin in the US is around 27cts/gal according to OPIS data, with several states seeing average margins in the 30s and 40cts/gal area. In addition, gasoline demand implied by DOE appeared firm. The 9.194 million b/d in offtake for the week climbed 2.1%, or 189,000 b/d, from the week before and moved 3% ahead of the 2013 week. Some analysts now see gasoline demand ringing up a strong autumn by DOE standards, though the offtake may now reflect storage that is getting Meantime, bulk gasoline markets are led by the New York Harbor, which continues to hold strong compared to other major U.S. spot gasoline locations. But outright prices for prompt RBOB in the region retreated 1.97cts Thursday, and at $2.0566/gal, ran 2.75cts lower week-to-week. Ethanol vs. Spot Unleaded and “BOBs” in Key Markets New York Chicago Los Angeles Note: OPIS Refined Spots and Ethanol averages are based on full-day prompt assessments for each market. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 9 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service filled ahead of the drive-heavy Thanksgiving holiday. While solid rack-to-retail margins continue to dot the landscape, average retail prices remain biased to the downside. At presstime, the national average pump price ran between $2.84-2.85/gal, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report and GasBuddy.com. In natural gas... Unseasonably cold weather over most of the country helped keep gas prices strong and though some warmer prospects started to weigh on some prices, the first supply draw of the year helped re-energize futures Thursday. The Henry Hub cash market for gas managed to nose up a couple cents Thursday and at $4.41/mmbtu traded up 23cts week-to-week. Chicago Citygate gas, however, lost a nickel on the day but retained a 57cts week-to-week price gain, at $5/mmbtu Thursday. The expected end to colder-thannormal temperatures heading into Thanksgiving week started to pull on markets, though many still focused on the cold weather at hand, even though most spot trading reportedly preceded a larger DOE-reported stock draw. “With nearly half of the U.S. blanketed in snow, and temperatures 15 to 30 degrees F below normal in many states, the recent weather pattern appeared reminiscent of the 2013-2014 winter, one of the coldest in years,” explained DOE in a midweek report. Though forecasters generally do not expect a repeat of 2013-14, the talk did bend the ears of traders. “The weather is always unexpected,” said one trading source in the Midwest. And driven by cold, natural gas consumption outran supply for the week. November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 “Dry production fell during the week, down 1.5% from the previous week, though still 4.7% greater than the same period last year,” reported DOE. Week-to-week gas demand also moved up 35%, according to DOE, with big gains in consumption for residential and commercial uses. There was also talk of how much gas production might be trimmed in recent weeks in reaction to the extreme cold that can limit work and cause shutdowns at some sites. The draw reported for the week before from DOE quickly reversed what had been a sagging paper market Thursday morning. It was not unexpected that the first natural gas draw of the season would show up, but a 17 bcf net draw on stocks for the week was more than expected, and it helped front-month December natural gas settle up 11.8cts on the day, at $4.489/mmbtu. The Merc contract settled Thursday 51.2cts higher than it did a week ago and reached a new four-month high. The draw on supply left gas stocks 5.3% behind the same time in 2013 and 6.4% under the 5-year average. Meantime, the 6-month NYMEX futures strip average also surged higher over the last week, running up by nearly 40.2cts from a week ago and averaging nearly $4.3067/ mmbtu. The Merc gains, however, were not enough to overtake Henry Hub cash prices and the strip continued to put paper under physical values, with a gap of more than 10.33cts Thursday. That spot premium still represented a 62.4% tighter differential than a week ago. In corn... Corn markets that started to reveal some harvest pressure sagged to two-week lows but did recover some of those Plant Profitability Biodiesel Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal) Ethanol Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal) *Biodiesel production margin calculated from cash feedstock costs and sales values for soy methyl ester biodiesel plants and are estimates of industry trends under current market conditions. Profits for any given biodiesel plant could be higher or lower. *Dry Milling margin calculated from cash feedstock and product sales values for wet and dry-mill plants and are an estimate of the industry trend under current market conditions. Profits for any given ethanol plant could be higher or lower. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 10 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 losses with some solid late gains. Front-month December CBOT futures traded up a dime Thursday, to $3.7325/ bu, but that still had prices off 13cts in the week-to-week comparison. Nevertheless, it was a nifty recovery off the day before when the contract traded below $3.63, to the lowest level since Nov. 5. prices through most of the week came from surprising robust export indications from USDA, as well as a nudge, too, from the big rebound in corn-based ethanol production that DOE reported for the previous week. The DOE figure indicated corn-to-ethanol operations up 2.5% on the week and more than 9.6% since early last month. March corn settling at $3.8625/bu added 10.25cts on the day, still leaving the contract running 12.5cts cheaper from a week ago. The 13cts premium for March corn over December on Thursday ran 11.8% tighter week-to-week. Corn net export sales for the latest week ran 28% higher than even some of the highest forecasts, according to USDA figures. The 908,700 metric tons of export sales is not considered a particularly strong number from the agency, but it well outpaced expectations. Export commitments stand at 46% of USDA’s total for the year, and that is a bit behind the The Thursday turnaround for what had been lagging corn National Renewable Fuel Feedstock/Co-Product Price Index Feedstock/Co-product Location/Source Spot Price Previous 4-Wk. Avg. Palm Olein US/Gulf Coast $0.3592/lb $0.3616 $0.3604 Soybean Oil - Crude De-gummed Central Illinois $0.3426/lb $0.3397 $0.3503 Soybean Oil - Crude Degummed Central Illinois - USDA $0.3342/lb $0.3269 $0.3364 Soybean Oil - RBD* Central Illinois - USDA $0.3701/lb $0.3672 $0.3778 Canola Oil West Coast $0.4251/lb $0.4222 $0.4291 Canola Oil Midwest $0.4226/lb $0.4197 $0.4266 Corn Oil - Crude Midwest $0.3650/lb $0.3650 $0.3650 Corn Oil - Refined Midwest $0.4354/lb $0.4350 $0.4351 Beef tallow Chicago $0.3350/lb $0.3200 $0.3075 Choice White Grease Chicago $0.3100/lb $0.2850 $0.2888 Poultry Fat (Low FFA)** Southeastern US $0.2825/lb $0.2800 $0.2794 Yellow Grease Illinois $0.2575/lb $0.2575 $0.2525 Methanol US Gulf Coast $1.1950/gal $1.1850 $1.4163 Soy Meal (Hi-Pro)*** Illinois Truck $440.00/ton $460.00 $449.25 Corn Central Illinois $3.6500/bu $3.7800 $3.6550 Soybeans Central Illinois $10.1500/bu $10.6300 $10.3375 Crude Glycerin (80%) FOB Midwest $0.0650/lb $0.0650 $0.0650 DDG-S (Distillers Dried Grains w/ Solubles) Eastern Cornbelt - USDA $118.7500/ton $105.0000 $105.7500 Corn Kansas City - USDA $3.4325/bu $3.4375 $3.3494 ULSD OPIS National Average $2.4060/gal $2.4070 $2.4875 RBOB OPIS National Average $1.9980/gal $2.0140 $2.0865 Ethanol OPIS National Average $2.3500/gal $2.3490 $2.1825 Unleaded RFG OPIS National Average $1.9860/gal $2.0020 $2.0705 Natural Gasoline Mt. Belvieu Non-TET $1.5225/gal $1.4863 $1.5779 Natural Gasoline Conway In-well $1.5331/gal $1.4413 $1.5367 Ethanol RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.5750/RIN $0.4780 $0.4930 $0.4903 Ethanol RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.5700/RIN $0.4760 Cellulosic RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average N/A N/A N/A Cellulosic RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.4200/RIN $0.4200 $0.4200 Biodiesel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.6050/RIN $0.5150 $0.5290 Biodiesel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.5700/RIN $0.4800 $0.4938 Advanced Biofuel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.5950/RIN $0.5050 $0.5188 Advanced Biofuel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.5675/RIN $0.4675 $0.4844 CA LCFS Carbon Credit California $26.00/mt $26.50 $26.0000 CA LCFS Carbon Intensity California $0.0022/CI $0.0022 $0.0022 *refined, bleached, deodorized **free fatty acids ***high protein Data provided, in part, by World Energy, www.worldenergy.net www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 11 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 49% average for this time of year. In distillers dried grains... Despite the cold and the snow in some areas, U.S. farmers continued to make good headway on the harvest, indicating that in most cases the foul weather might be too late to do much damage to the crop or harvest. At the start of the week, USDA reported the harvest 89% complete, just ahead of the 5-year average 88% for the week and a touch behind the 2013 pace that reached 90%. The market for distillers dried grains often showed very little or no change week-to-week, both in FOB pricing and for material going to delivered markets. Some of the price pressure earlier in the week came from increased producer selling amid reports of tighter spot differentials showing up in key cash locations, all linked to the end-game of a record harvest. Kansas City No. 2 truck yellow corn ran mixed week-to-week, priced 3cts lower to 2cts higher, at $3.4325/bu. Chicago No. 2 yellow corn dropped 3-13cts, at $3.4525-$3.7325/bu. In biodiesel... Stronger petroleum diesel prices at the rack over the latter half of the week helped ease biodiesel blending economics ahead of the weekend, but a run-up in EPA’s blending credit values could also help blenders. Biodiesel rack prices remained sluggish, and traded down 3cts against a week ago on average, at $3.824/gal nationally. At the same time, on-road petroleum diesel at the rack slumped at midweek, then rebounded back to show almost no change week-to-week, off 15 points nationally and averaging $2.765/gal. While that would still leave B100 priced $1.059 over diesel racks, on average, there was also a rally in D4 Renewable Identification Number credits for biomass-based diesel. D4 RIN credits for 2014 that could be had at 50cts/RIN a week ago jumped as much as 22% at last word, with trading around 61cts. That would indicate that a gallon of biodiesel could also deliver up to 91.5cts in RIN credit value. At the rack, RIN credits could cut the B100 price premium over diesel back to 14.4cts/gal, less than half of what it averaged a week ago. Iowa FOB pricing on DDGs ran $100-$125/ton, which had the cheaper values nosing up $3, but the pricier DDGs quoted falling back $6 for the week. Minnesota DDGs quotes gained $10 on the low end, with most other prices holding steady with a range of $100-$115. Eastern Corn Belt DDGs prices did not budge during the week, showing the same $95-$140 that the market exhibited a week ago. In Kansas, DDGs called $120-$145 over the last week also showed little else than some movement on the lower end, up $5, with the top prices holding steady. At $110-$130, Nebraska DDGs held at the same range the region reported a week ago. Meantime, delivered DDGs markets often showed better footing, though the gains remained small. Chicago delivered DDGs at $126-$142 gained $4-$6 over the last week. While Pacific Northwest DDGs slumped $5-$10, at $190-$199, those going to California stepped $2-$4 higher on the week, at $193-$202. In natural gasoline... Spot natural gasoline prices at a key hub advanced some 2.4% in the last week, goaded by RBOB that found some legs during the week and expectations that prices may get some support early next year. Trading $1.5225/gal in Mt. Belvieu on Nov. 20, natural gasoline moved up from $1.48625/gal that it traded on Nov. 13 – but the depths the market sagged into is evident that prices still ran down by 4.7% since Nov. 6 ($1.59875/gal0, and a 10.6% down from Oct. 30 ($1.70375/gal). The market rebounded along with RBOB gasoline futures. December RBOB futures edged up 3% on the week, but at $2.0276/gal it remained well behind the $2.1301 from Nov. 6 and the $2.1610 on the Oct. 30 settle. The natural gasoline market is forecasting strength early next year before a dip. The price for natural gasoline in January European Biodiesel Spot Markets Rotterdam FAME ($/gal) Rotterdam RME/Gasoil ($/gal) www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 12 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service is seen at $1.545625, before dipping in April to a projected $1.534375. The forward curve for the market does not rise above the January price until September. This indicates that the seasonal pickup in prices when the driving season normally increases demand may not be evident in 2015. The bulls had a slight gain this past week and may be able to ride higher prices into the early part of the year, but if the forward curve is a reliable indicator, the bears will emerge from hibernation and take back control of the market. In ultra-low-sulfur diesel... U.S. distillate inventories held higher than the same time last year, despite dropping some 2.1 million bbl for the week, according to DOE. Some regions appeared to remain illsupplied amid very volatile bulk markets. Of that distillate disappearance during the week, almost 1.8 million bbl of it came out of the nation’s ultra-low-sulfur diesel storage. At 91.245 million ULSD bbl on hand, stocks are still about 1% ahead of the same week last year, but like the overall number there are regional spots where supply is running behind. Midwest diesel stocks need to be watched, after total distillate inventory for the week fell back to 22.9 million bbl – another all-time low in nearly 25 years of weekly data from DOE. At the same time, ULSD stockpiles in the region ran 5% lower year-on-year and at 22.15 million bbl gave up 181,000 bbl in the last week. In the Gulf Coast, however, ULSD stockpiles are 4.5% ahead of last year and there supply build 228,000 bbl on the week, at 30.262 million bbl. The harvest demand for diesel is winding down and total diesel demand by DOE’s latest count backed off a bit to 3.794 million b/d. The metric hasn’t surpassed the more normal looking 4-million-b/d mark since late September. Midwest diesel markets erupted in some wild swings and huge price ranges during the week. At midweek, the Group 3 diesel market had prices skyrocket and then drop sharply over the course of just 48 November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 hours. After climbing toward a 50ct premium versus the futures market for prompt ULSD in the Group, that premium “collapsed” to just 22cts by Thursday. The $2.60/gal outright price for Group ULSD plunged back 24.5cts from the day before but held 17.79cts higher week-to-week in that highly volatile market. Before the Thursday selling, there was even steeper backwardation for Group diesel as December ratable barrels were secured at a discount of 6cts/gal to the futures market. December ratable barrels neared $2.365/gal at the time, a little more than 39cts cheaper than prompt, but that shifted quickly in a diesel market that proved it can turn on a dime. European, Brazilian and CBI Markets: Rotterdam RME FAME Ethanol T2 $3.21 $2.83 $2.16/€1.72 Prices in U.S. $/gal., 11/20/14 Data provided, in part, by Starsupply Renewables, www.starsupply.ch and SCB & Associates, www.starcb.com European Markets “Sweden is the frontrunner among Member States regarding the growth of renewables in transport,” declared a draft report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) that was released earlier this month. “The share of biofuels in the Swedish domestic transport sector has more than doubled in the last years, from 2.9% in 2006 to approximately 7.5% in 2012. In a business-as-usual scenario, Sweden may exceed its mandate of 10% renewable fuels in transport by 2020 with a surplus of 2%.” Through 2011, ethanol had the largest market share in the country, but in 2012, biodiesel matched it at approximately 400 million liters per year for each fuel. “This was a result of many policy instruments based on low-carbon emissions, which have been affecting the development of the transport sector in Sweden during the last years,” found UNCTAD. “As a result, the Swedish dependency on diesel is increasing. In fact, heavy-duty vehicles already are highly dependent on it.” Brazil and CBI Ethanol Spot CBI Hydrous Ethanol Implied Value vs. NYH Spot ($/gal) Anhydrous vs. Hydrous ($/gal) www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 13 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service While use of diesel engines and biodiesel improves the fuel economy of the transport fleet, it leaves the country vulnerable to a shortage of diesel and biodiesel, UNCTAD said. “Several components of the bioenergy system are highly dependent on road transport and heavy-duty vehicles, such as machinery operation in the forestry sector and transport of raw materials from forests to fuel factories and of biofuels to heating plants,” it stated. The other big challenge in Sweden is its low production of biofuels. In 2011, 55% of the ethanol and 60% of the biodiesel used in Sweden was imported, mostly from France and Lithuania, respectively, according to the Swedish Energy Agency. “Unfortunately, the country’s current policy framework is not strong enough to trigger changes within the Swedish biofuel system in order to change this pattern. The reason behind this is not only a lack of infrastructure and management capability related to local production, especially regarding 2nd-generation biofuels, but also a need for stronger policy instruments to trigger changes,” UNCTAD stated. “Furthermore, biofuel production plants are still generally seen as risky investment by traditional and well-established investors in Sweden,” the report continued. “One of the current causes for uncertainty is related to the fact that biofuel production systems in place have not yet been able to establish robust and clear sustainability criteria.” On the other hand, the positive trends are clear. Regulations have increased the allowable blending levels of biofuels – with the support of vehicle manufacturers – as Sweden pursues the 10% total pool biofuels goal. The most common biodiesel blend is 5% (B5), though carmakers allow blends of up to 20% (or higher if engines are modified). Since May 2011, 7% FAME-based biodiesel and 15% HVO-based biodiesel have been allowed. Clean-fuel vehicles that can handle up to 85% ethanol blends have become widely available, which has spurred the installation of E85 pumps. Market update Biofuels prices had a second consecutive quiet week. As of Nov. 20, RME fob ARA finished up $4/ metric ton (MT) in a bid/ask range of $949-$969/mt. SME fob ARA was up $1 to $856-$876/mt. PME was down by $14/mt to $766-$796/mt. FAME 0 was up $1/mt to $846-$866/mt. Prices are provided by SCB Renewables. Brazil and CBI Markets Anhydrous Ethanol 2.06305-2.10090 Hydrous Ethanol 1.89271-1.96841 (FOB Santos, 11/20/14, prices in U.S. $/gal.) As was the case at the end of September, Brazil’s ethanol inventories at the end of October stood at historically high levels, figures from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture show. November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 The higher inventories could translate to less price volatility as Brazil’s principal South Central sugarcane-growing region enters the inter-harvest period (roughly December 2014 through March 2015). The higher inventories also could translate to less reliance on ethanol imports from the United States during the inter-harvest period. The figures show South Central anhydrous ethanol inventories totaling 4.412 billion liters at the end of October, representing a 35.6% increase over the inventories on hand a year earlier (3.253 billion liters). South Central anhydrous inventories saw an increase of 623.7 million liters last month, outpacing an inventory build of 566.4 million liters during October 2013. In Brazil, anhydrous ethanol is blended into gasoline (currently at a blend rate of 25%), and hydrous ethanol competes with gasoline at the pump. The figures show South Central hydrous inventories totaling 5.986 billion liters at the end of October, putting them 45.9% higher than the 4.103 billion liters recorded at the end of October 2013. The last time regional hydrous inventories topped 5 billion liters at end-October was in 2010 (5.252 billion liters). The October build in South Central hydrous inventories handily outpaced the October 2013 build, with a build of 910.1 million liters last month compared to a build of 182.8 million liters in October 2013. Earlier this month, several Brazilian ethanol producers reported year-on-year builds in their ethanol inventories for Sept. 30, or the end of the calendar third quarter. The strategy of those companies is to have more ethanol on hand to sell during the South Central inter-harvest period, when ethanol prices are relatively strong. Biosev reported ethanol inventories at the end of the quarter of 497,000 cubic meters (cbm), nearly double the 250,000 cbm recorded at the end of the prior-year period. Guarani reported its ethanol inventories as being up by 34% year on year to 71,000 cbm. São Martinho recorded anhydrous ethanol inventories of 155,107 cbm (up 118.3% year on year) and hydrous ethanol inventories of 165,397 cbm (up 140.5%). Raízen Energia, the joint venture between Shell and Brazil’s Cosan, reported 1.082 million cbm of ethanol inventories at the end of September, representing a 65.7% increase from 653,000 cbm on hand at the same time last year. As for ethanol trade between Brazil and the United States: Market sources at mid-month said that 20,000 cbm of Brazilian ethanol had been arranged for shipment to Port Canaveral in Florida for delivery in first-half December. Sources also noted 10,000 cbm of ethanol slated for delivery from the Brazilian port of Santos to Port Everglades, Fla., with delivery of the volume expected in early December. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 14 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service On Nov. 6, the price of anhydrous ethanol fob Santos dipped to below the Tampa spot price for the first time this autumn, with skyrocketing U.S. spot prices behind the changed relationship. By Nov. 14, Tampa spot ethanol was being assessed 53.1cts/gal stronger than anhydrous ethanol fob Santos ($2.5750/gal versus $2.0440/gal), with sliding Brazilian values contributing to the widening gap. Market sources have been pegging the freight cost to move ethanol from Brazil to the U.S. East Coast at about $45/cbm (17cts/gal) for shipments of 20,000 cbm. There were reports on Nov. 14 of anhydrous ethanol fob Santos having traded at around $535-$540/cbm ($2.0250-$2.0440/gal). At presstime, there were reports of anhydrous ethanol for late-December delivery to the U.S. being offered at $570/ cbm fob Santos, with no bids reported. News of the Week: Y-O-Y deficit in Brazil’s ethanol exports widened in October Brazil’s ethanol exports to the United States during the first 10 months of 2014 were down by 59.5% versus the same period last year, and Brazil’s ethanol exports to all destinations were down by 55.5%, figures from Brazil’s Secretary of Foreign Commerce show. In comparison, the year-on-year export deficit over the first nine months of 2014 had been 56.1% as far as exports to the U.S. and 53.4% as far as exports to all destinations. Joule names former Total CEO to lead company Massachusetts-based alternative fuel startup Joule Unlimited has tapped the former chairman and CEO of Total SA as its new president and CEO, the company announced recently. Serge Tchuruk has succeeded Paul Snaith, who resigned as president and CEO, a position he held since February. CARB responds to concerns regarding Neste Oil’s renewable diesel pathway The California Air Resources Board received several comments regarding the recently announced Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathway application for renewable diesel from Neste Oil’s facility in Singapore. Several of the commenters expressed concern about Neste Oil’s use of fish oil as renewable diesel feedstock. More comments arrive about Washington state clean fuels plan Oil industry representatives have expressed opposition to a proposed Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) in Washington November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 state, while environmental groups and biofuels industry groups have suggested adjustments to a program that they generally favor, according to comments received by the Office of Financial Management. “WSPA [Western States Petroleum Association] does not believe a Low Carbon Fuels Standard is a feasible or appropriate policy for Washington State,” said WSPA in its comments submitted last week. CARB accepting comments on pathways for biodiesel and biodiesel feedstock The staff of the California Air Resources Board recently posted two Low Carbon Fuel Standard fuel pathway applications for comment. One application is from FutureFuel Chemical Co., which is seeking approval of two pathways: used cooking oil to biodiesel, and corn oil to biodiesel. Proposal for Canadian biodiesel plant not dead yet: Official A proposal to build a Canadian biodiesel plant that was turned down by a local government body is not necessarily dead, according to an official involved in the plan. Norfolk Disposal Services’ pitch for the plant, to be located in Waterford, Ontario, was turned down by the Norfolk County Council, but General Manager Bernie Debono indicated that the plan could still go forward. Maple Energy ends negotiations for investor offer of ethanol business Maple Energy, a Peruvian energy company with ethanol interests, announced that it has terminated negotiations on a proposed transaction for a substantial part of its equity interest. Last month, the company received an offer from Grana y Montero S.A.A. and Alcogroup SA. According to the terms of the proposed offer, the investors would pay an initial $4 million to acquire a 40% equity interest in The Maple Companies Limited, the subsidiary dedicated to ethanol production and hydrocarbon operations, in which Maple has a 95.4% interest. CARB: LCFS credit volume drops but prices hold steady The latest monthly report from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) shows steady pricing for Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit trading in the state, but volume tailing off significantly from month to month. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 15 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service The average trading price for LCFS credits over October settled at $26 per credit, the same price that such trading averaged in September, according to CARB figures released recently. November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 California Energy Commission providing $3 million grant to Pacific Ethanol Amyris says can hit the billion-dollar mark by 2020 The California Energy Commission (CEC) is providing a $3 million grant to a Pacific Ethanol subsidiary to develop and use sorghum feedstock, the agency announced on Nov. 17. During the recent third-quarter earnings call for biofuels and biochemical company Amyris, CEO John Melo made the statement that the company can see its way to reaching sales of $1 billion by 2020. Specifically, the grant to Pacific Ethanol Development LLC to use the sorghum feedstock will lead to the production of low-carbon transportation fuel in Madera and Stockton. “Over half of our expected growth over the next few years is based on renewable products we are commercializing with our partner. We believe that our current product portfolio, partnerships and strong manufacturing performance underpins around $1 billion of revenue at a 50% to 60% gross margin by the end of this decade,” Melo said near the end of his prepared remarks during the Nov. 4 earnings call. Cardinal Ethanol pays nearly $10K fine for alleged permit violations UN report sees potential for biofuel sector increase in South Africa As Cardinal Ethanol CEO Jeff Painter explained to OPIS, “This was a result of questions by IDEM that fermentation tanks might emit compounds into the air after the CO2 scrubber is shut down for regular, routine maintenance.” Among African countries, South Africa seems to have aboveaverage potential for biofuels growth in the next few years, the United Nations Conference on Trade and development found in a draft report released earlier this month. The report, “The State of the Biofuels Market: Regulatory, Trade and Development Perspectives,” looks at production, demand, regulation and trade in biofuels across the world, analyzing the period from 2006 through 2012. BlueFire Renewables unable to file quarterly results on time California-based cellulosic ethanol developer BlueFire Renewables is unable to file its quarterly financial results in a timely manner, the company explained in a Nov. 14 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). “Registrant was not able to obtain all information prior to filing date and management could not complete the required financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis of such financial statements by Nov. 14, 2014,” Bluefire Renewables explained in the SEC filing. Analysis questions data on indirect and-use changes An analysis by Iowa State University raises concerns about the accuracy of economic models used by regulatory agencies to penalize ethanol for indirect land use changes. The study, released Nov. 14, was partly funded by the Renewable Fuels Foundation, the education and research arm of the Renewable Fuels Association. Cardinal Ethanol, which operates a 100-million gal/yr ethanol plant in Union City, Ind., has paid a $9,600 fine imposed by the Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM), alleging operating permit violations. Kan. ethanol plant to regain full capacity of dry distiller’s product in ‘14 Conestoga Energy Partners expects to have its full capacity of dry distiller’s product to sell from its Liberal, Kan., ethanol plant by the end of next month, according to a company representative. “We were able to get part of the capacity back by the end of July and will have our full capacity back by the end of the year,” the representative told OPIS. Lufthansa inks first term biojet deal Lufthansa has become the first international airline to ink a term supply deal to use biojet fuel at the Oslo Airport in Norway. The agreement, inked at the IATA International Conference in Dubai, is with fuel supplier SkyNRG Nordic, the consortium partnership between SkyNRG and Statoil Fuel & Retail Aviation. Feed Food Fairness campaign launches RFS repeal ad A campaign aimed at repealing the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) was sponsoring an ad in Politico, warning that the biofuels provision “will cause corn and other food commodities to soar.” The Feed Food Fairness campaign was previously formed by the National Council of Chain Restaurants, the American Beverage Association, the American Meat Institute, the International Foodservice Distributors Association and the National Chicken Council. www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 16 Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service November 24, 2014 • Volume 11, Issue 47 Missouri biodiesel plant restructures deadlines for anticipated sale Online traceability added to sustainable feedstock certification Producers’ Choice Soy Energy LLC has restructured the deadlines for the anticipated sale of its 10-million gal/yr biodiesel plant in Missouri. The Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) announced Nov. 19 that Elements Software Ltd. has developed new online tools to enable RSB members to track their biofuel feedstocks more effectively than current spreadsheet-based tracking systems. The new schedule includes a Nov. 21 deadline for communicating interest to agent Solutions 4 Manufacturing (S4M), a Dec. 19 deadline for completing plant visits and conducting due diligence and a Dec. 31 deadline for submitting a letter of intent to purchase. RSB is one of the leading firms that provides a global sustainability certification for biofuels feedstocks. Rep. Pallone to be ranking Democrat on House Energy Committee Gasoline marketer groups urge Congress to extend biodiesel tax credit The Petroleum Marketers Association of America (PMAA) and three other gasoline marketer-related groups are urging Congressional leadership “to move quickly on a tax extenders package, with particular support for the biodiesel blender’s tax credit.” In a letter to Congressional leadership dated Nov. 13, PMAA, NATSO, the Society of Independent Gasoline Marketers of American and the National Association of Convenience Stores wrote that they “represent the majority of biodiesel blenders and marketers in this country. We urge Congress to enact a multi-year, retroactive extension of the $1-per-gallon biodiesel tax credit.” Africa trails other areas in advancement of biofuels: Report Africa remains far behind other areas when it comes to the advancement of biofuels, the United Nations Conference on Trade and development found in a draft report released earlier this month. U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) beat fellow Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) to be the next Ranking Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee next year, according to numerous reports. In a Democratic Caucus vote Nov. 19, Pallone won in a 100-90 vote, according to reports. Consultant: Grants, land make Canada attractive for advanced biofuel plants San Francisco – U.S. advanced biofuel and chemical producers should think of co-locating their plants in Canada to take advantage of the ample land, lower corporate tax rates and grants available, a Canadian energy consultant told the audience here at the Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference. As Jeff Passmore, CEO of Passmore Group Inc., explained, assuming project sponsors have both demonstrated technology and equity, Canada can offer feedstock, locations, partners, grants and attractive markets. “The African continent is far from solving its challenges to become major actors within global biofuel markets,” it said. 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