We d n e s d ay 1 7 , D e ce m b e r 2 0 1 4 News & Report Analysis Currency Market Precious Metal Base Metal Energy Market Govt hikes import tariff value on gold and silver Following HC order Odisha agrees to allow Tata Steel resume mining EU steel mills losing market share to cheap imports: Eurofer NMDC to commission new iron ore mines Coal auction may push up cost of power generation: ICRA 2 Wednesday 17, December 2014 Daily MMR Landed Prices London Metal Exchange : Tuesday 16, December 2014 Pr. Sell (1) Morning Session Buy Sell * (2) Afternoon Session Buy Sell Kerb Change (2) - (1) Value Stk(tns) change $/ton Rs/ton Copper Grade A Spot 6560.00 6385.00 6390.00 6365.00 6365.50 6452.00 -170.0 1,72,675 MMR LP 4,39,274 3-mth 6500.00 6350.00 6350.50 6319.00 6320.00 6397.00 -149.5 6175 14-D MA 4,36,219 PP (HCL) 4,51,445 Average 10-days - 6476.90 20-days - 6550.70 30-days - 6604.20 Tin High Grade Spot 20380.00 20345.00 20355.00 20174.00 20175.00 20453.00 -25.0 12,190 -- -- 3-mth 20475.00 20325.00 20330.00 20174.00 20175.00 20432.00 -145.0 920 -- -- -- -- Average 10-days - 20382.50 20-days - 20277.80 30-days - 20137.80 Lead Spot 1963.50 1936.00 1936.50 1919.00 1919.50 1951.00 -27.0 2,19,825 MMR LP 1,38,000 3-mth 1978.00 1950.00 1952.00 1934.00 1935.00 1966.00 -26.0 -375 14-D MA 1,39,187 PP (HZL) 1,49,300 Average 10-days - 1996.10 20-days - 2017.60 30-days - 2015.70 Zinc Special High Grade Spot 2187.00 2142.00 2142.50 2134.00 2134.50 2167.00 -44.5 6,87,450 MMR LP 1,57,175 3-mth 2197.00 2156.00 2157.00 2146.00 2147.00 2175.00 -40.0 -3375 14-D MA 1,57,083 PP (HZL) 1,64,700 Average 10-days - 12188.40 20-days - 2220.50 30-days - 2228.60 Aluminium Spot 1916.50 1874.50 1875.00 1874.00 1875.00 1910.00 -41.5 42,72,100 MMR LP 1,56,638 3-mth 1931.00 1908.00 1910.00 1903.00 1904.00 1927.00 -21.0 -20350 14-D MA 1,52,215 PP (Nalco) 1,66,900 Average 10-days - 1944.40 20-days - 2000.70 30-days - 2015.10 Aluminium Alloy Spot 1990.00 1990.00 2000.00 NA NA NA 10.0 26,620 3-mth 1995.00 1995.00 2005.00 NA NA NA 10.0 0 Average 10-days - 2009.50 20-days - 2013 30-days - 2018.80 Nickel Spot 16660.00 16125.00 16130.00 15968.00 15970.00 16379.00 -530.0 4,05,174 -- -- 3-mth 16720.00 16250.00 16275.00 16039.00 16040.00 16450.00 -445.0 -120 -- -- -Copper Aluminium -01-Dec 01-Nov Zinc Lead 11-Dec 11-Dec Average 10-days - 16444 20-days - 16346.50 30-days - 16007.20 Note: 1. MMR LP = MMR Landed Prices, excluding excise duty. 2. PP = Producer Prices ex-smelter, excl. excise Minor Metals ($/LB) Antimony 99.65% 9,100 Cadmium 99.80% 90.00 Cobalt HG Moly.oxide 99.80% 14.00 9.00 Tantalite 30% Ta2O5 81.00 Titanium Ferro-vana Con. Ti02 550.00 24.90 Silicon 2,050 Week ended Avg of Steel Prices: 13/12/2014 (Incl. Excise duty) Sponge Iron Pig Iron Ferro Alloys : Mandi 27,400 HMS 32,000 CRP(LSLP) Mumbai Mkt rates in kgs : Mumbai Kolkata 30,100 29,200 32,300 Ferro Moly 1300 Delhi Chennai Bhiwandi 30,700 27,600 MS Ingots 38,900 29,400 Ferro Silicon 80 Titanium 170 Indicative Domestic Market Rates (Rs./kg) Mumbai 16-Dec Prev Virgin Metals Copper Pat Copper W/Bar Delhi 16-Dec Comex Copper (cents/lb) Chennai 16-Dec Prev Prev -501.0 -501.0 435.0 - 435.0 - - Alum Ingot Zinc Slab Lead Ingot Tin Slab Nickel (4x4) Scrap Copper Heavy Copper Uten. 174.0 182.0 133.0 1,505.0 1,155.0 176.0 182.0 132.0 1,500.0 1,160.0 178.0 187.0 128.0 1,503.0 1,153.0 178.0 187.0 128.0 1,503.0 1,153.0 465.0 427.0 464.0 428.0 --- --- 167.0 - Copper Mixed Brass Utensil Brass Huny Brass Sheet Alum Utensil 327.0 325.0 337.0 135.0 324.0 320.0 338.0 136.0 420.0 --141.0 420.0 --141.0 - Nov'14 Dec'14 - Jan'15 - Metal Gold Std Silver Gold Silver Gold Silver Rate 287.75 287.25 286.70 Change -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Kanpur 38,600 Durgapur 34,900 Comex Al (cents/lb) Rate - Change - Precious Metals : Indicative Rates Market Mumbai Mumbai London London Comex Comex Unit Rs./10g Rs./kg $/tr.oz. $/tr.oz. $/tr.oz. $/tr.oz. 16-Dec 27,150 37,700 1,202.5 16.29 1,193.9 15.71 Prev 26,500 38,600 1,209.3 16.85 1,207.2 16.52 Forex: Dec 16, 2014 (Rs/Unit Currency) - Buy - Sell - Buy USD 63.59 63.50 EURO 79.54 GBP 99.91 99.78 SGD 48.80 — — AUD 52.44 YEN 0.5464 0.5455 SFR 66.25 Sell 79.44 48.72 52.38 66.15 Customs Notified Rates: Nov 21, 2014 [Rs.(Imp/Exp)]: US$ 62.60/61.60;Pound Sterling 98.45/96.25;Euro 78.90/77.00 U.S. stock prices fell for a third day in a USD/INR - 16/12/14 volatile session on Tuesday, led by declines in 63.20 consumer discretionary and technology shares, 63.26 63.50 U.S. central bank's stance is on interest rates. USD/INR Overnight VAR Data releases today 17:00 16:00 15:00 with investors looking to see how dovish the 14:00 63.56 13:00 policy statement is expected at 1900 GMT, 63.44 12:00 policy meeting wraps up on Wednesday, and 63.38 11:00 to worries about the global economy. The Fed's 63.32 9:00 while another drop in the Russian rouble added 10:00 Daily 3 Wednesday 17, December 2014 0.3268 Forecast Previous Japanese stocks rose on Wednesday as hopes USD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.0% of a continuation of the U.S. Federal Reserve's USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2% dovish stance on rates helped exporter shares brush off a stronger yen, and chart support halted the Nikkei's recent losses. The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its final policy review of 2014 later on Wednesday, and is expected to drop particular words stating its intent to keep rates near zero as a prelude to raising interest rates next year. Among the regional economies data includes Asian Business Sentiment Index increased to 72 in the fourth quarter from 66 in the previous three months. The result was only slightly below the 74 reading of the second quarter which was the highest since early 2012. A reading above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook. Indian businesses provided the biggest boost to the index, with companies reporting a maximum score of 100 for the third consecutive quarter as they look to new Prime Minister Narendra Modi to speed up economic recovery. Currency Market Source : Mecklai Financial released earlier on Wednesday showing Japan's exports rose 4.9 percent in November, falling short of forecasts, helping the dollar regain some of the ground it lost overnight. Japan marked its 29th straight month of trade deficits. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. However, rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency cushioned sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched an intra - day low of 87.83 and closed at 88.30 on Tuesday. The rouble last traded at 67.95 to the dollar after dropping as low as 78 on Tuesday. It plunged more than 11 percent against the dollar on Tuesday despite Moscow's steep hike in interest rates. The steepest intraday fall since Russia's 1998 currency crisis and debt default sapped investors' appetite for risk. The safe- The US dollar currency reported its early haven yen benefited from the flight to safety on losses in early Asian trading on Wednesday, Tuesday, strengthening to 115.56 yen against pulling away from lows hit overnight on the dollar, its highest since Nov. 17. skidding oil prices, Russia's financial crisis, and The dollar last bought 117.03 yen, up 0.6 speculation that the Federal Reserve might take percent on the day but still far from a seven-year a more cautious tone on monetary policy. Data high of 121.86 yen set on Dec. 8. Undermining investors' appetite for the dollar, the yield on 4 Wednesday 17, December 2014 Daily 6 mth LIBOR Major Currencies Today’s Crosses Spot Cash v/s INR 0.34 USD / INR - ATM Options (put/call) 0.15 Forward Rates v/s INR (Export/ Import) December January February May August November 63.88/ 88 63.85/ 85 64.05/ 07 64.45/ 47 64.79/ 82 65.90/ 93 66.95/ 98 67.96/ 99 - - - 0.00/0.66 0.00/0.87 0.00/1.04 0.00/1.42 0.00/1.79 0.00/2.14 EUR / USD 1.2494 79.81/ 81 79.77/ 77 80.03/ 05 80.55/ 58 80.99/ 02 82.44/ 47 83.85/ 88 85.23/ 25 0.15 USD / JPY(100) 116.86 54.66/ 66 54.63/ 63 54.82/ 84 55.19/ 21 55.49/ 52 56.50/ 53 57.48/ 52 58.44/ 48 0.68 GBP / USD 1.5725 100.44/ 46 100.39/ 41 100.72/ 74 101.34/ 26 101.82/ 71 103.49/ 95 105.09/ 01 106.64/ 92 0.05 USD / CHF 0.9611 66.45/ 46 66.42/ 43 66.64/ 66 67.07/ 10 67.47/ 50 68.73/ 75 69.97/ 97 71.16/ 14 3.06 AUD / USD 0.8168 52.17/ 18 52.15/ 16 52.31/ 33 52.64/ 67 52.92/ 95 53.83/ 85 54.68/ 71 55.51/ 54 Source : Mecklai Financial benchmark 10-year notes dropped to 2.060 that pulled it to a one-week low of $1,188.41 percent from its U.S. close of 2.071 percent on before ending marginally higher. U.S. gold for Tuesday, when it dropped to a two-month low February delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,198.30 of 2.009 percent. an ounce. Investors will be watching whether The Indian Rupee fell to 13 months low and the Federal Open Market Committee will depreciated around 0.8 percent in yesterday’s remove the phrase "considerable time" in the trading session. The currency depreciated on statement due at the end of a two-day meeting the back of concerns over the global economic with regard to the timing of an interest rate hike. Dropping that phrase would mean the growth. Fed is preparing the market for a rate hike Precious Metal next year as the economy gathers strength, Gold steadied at just below $1,200 an ounce analysts say, which could weaken prices of non- on Wednesday ahead of the outcome of the U.S. interest bearing assets such as gold. Further Federal Reserve's last policy meeting of the year losses in oil may also weigh on gold after that may signal how soon it will raise interest Brent crude fell below $60 a barrel for the first rates. Investors were also keeping an eye on time since 2009 with major oil producers in no Russia after the rouble plunged more than 11 mood to curb output despite a well supplied percent against the dollar on Tuesday despite a market. U.S. housing starts fell in November hefty interest rate hike by the central bank. Spot as groundbreaking for single-family homes gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,197.61 an ounce declined after two hefty increases, in what by 0040 GMT after a volatile session on Tuesday appeared to be a brief pause in a trend of Market Highlights - Gold (% change) as on December 16, 2014 gradual recovery. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Comex Gold (Dec’14) MCX Gold (Feb’14)** Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY said its holdings slipped to 721.56 tonnes on $/oz 1196.2 0.34 -2.5 3.1 -3.5 Rs/10 gms 26950.0 0.09 0.2 4.5 -9.6 $/oz 1193.9 -1.10 -3.1 -0.2 -3.4 prices declined by around 2.8 percent to $15.7/ Rs /10 gms 27194.0 -0.46 0.0 5.5 -5.7 oz on profit booking at higher levels. Although, Source: Angel Broking Tuesday from 723.36 tonnes on Monday. Among the other precious metal, Spot silver dollar index was weak by 0.3 percent, weakness Daily 5 Wednesday 17, December 2014 in the base metals pack exerted downside Meanwhile, aluminium showed only modest pressure on prices. As per Angel Broking signs of pulling out of negative territory. Research report gold and silver prices to trade Three-month aluminium on the London Metal lower as the optimism and growth in the US Exchange stood at $1,9190 a tonne, up $3.50 economy might lead the Federal Reserve policy from the previous session close, where intraday makers to comment on interest rates which will trading too contract to a two-month low of act a s a negative factor for prices. $1,900.75. Traders said uncertainty surrounding Base Metal longer-term implications of an unprecedented drop in the rouble had sidelined some metals The benchmark industrial metal Copper investors. A weakened rouble could entice prices eased on Wednesday on weak data from Russian metals producers to lift production of the US and China fueled demand concerns from metals, which are sold in U.S. dollars. Russia is the two biggest consumers. It was more dragged the world's sixth-biggest copper producer and down by a rise in Chinese output and concerns second-biggest aluminium producer. However, a sharp drop in the rouble could see Russian Russian aluminium giant Rusal's on Tuesday producers step up metals production. Three- ruled out restarting production capacity, month copper on the London Metal Exchange warning it did not want to repeat mistakes had dropped 0.26 percent to $6,348.50 a made after the 2008 global financial crisis, when tonne by 0210 GMT, extending losses from the many producers stepped up production despite previous session. The most-traded February large inventories. copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped 1 percent to 45,660 yuan ($7,378) a tonne. Energy Market Brent crude futures fell for a fifth straight day Production of refined copper in China, the on Tuesday to end below $60 a barrel while U.S. world's biggest market for the metal, rose 3.1 crude finished a volatile session slightly higher percent from the previous month in November, as trading of expiring options helped defend the hitting a record for the fourth straight month. price above $55. U.S. crude dipped again after Investors were also keeping an eye on Russia settlement after an industry group reported after the rouble plunged more than 11 percent growth in domestic crude inventories, which against the dollar on Tuesday despite a hefty analysts had expected to shrink in the latest interest rate hike by the central bank. Copper prices have now plunged by around $1,000 a tonne since the start of the year, underscoring a mounting supply glut, which miners says could take years to work through. As per the report, worldwide copper supply surplus of 300,000 tonnes is forecast in 2015 by Australia's Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics, equivalent to half a year's output by South Korea. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change) as on December 16, 2014 Crude Oil Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY Brent (Spot) $/bbl 60.5 -1.4 -4.8 -25.1 -45.5 Nymex Crude (Jan’15) $/bbl 55.9 0.0 -12.4 -25.0 -42.6 ICE Brent Crude (Jan’15) $/bbl 59.9 -2.0 -6.8 -25.5 -45.8 MCX Crude (Dec ’14) Rs/bbl 3573.0 -0.7 -6.3 -24.9 -40.7 Source: Angel Broking Daily Wednesday 17, December 2014 week. Early in the session, prices slid more than $2 barrel as major oil producers said they were in no rush to cut production and curb a growing glut. While both markets rebounded from session lows, U.S. crude saw frenzied trading that pushed it up more than $1 at one point as players sought to defend prices at around the $55 mark to avoid executing options that expire in-the-money. Traders also cited a selloff in gasoline/heating oil crack spreads, which they said bolstered U.S. crude earlier in the day. Brent pared some of its losses as traders tried to keep the value of its expiring front-month contract, January, close to the nearby February, which will at USD 540 per kg in the first fortnight of the be the market's benchmark from Wednesday. current month. Brent's front-month settled down $1.20, or nearly The import tariff value is the base price at 2 percent, at $59.86 a barrel. Its session low of which customs duty is determined to prevent $58.50 was the lowest since July 2009. under-invoicing. It is revised on a fortnightly The contract has lost more than 10 percent basis taking into account global prices. in five days of trading. The price spread between The increase in tariff value on imported gold Brent and U.S. crude, a favorite arbitrage for oil has been notified by the Central Board of Excise traders, narrowed to below $4 a barrel from the and Customs, an official statement said. Globally, one-month high above $5 in Monday's session. gold and silver prices have been volatile in the Oil prices were driven down in early trade last few weeks. In London, gold prices rose by Russia's emergency rate hike in a failed on Tuesday 0.53 per cent to USD 1,199.80 per attempt to stabilize the rouble, and by decision ounce, while silver rates too increased to USD by Russia, the world's largest oil producer, not 16.22 per ounce. In the domestic market, gold to cut its oil output. prices however showed a decline. News & Report Analysis Govt hikes import tariff value on gold and silver The government on Tuesday raised import tariff value on gold to USD 396 per 10 grams and Gold was sold at Rs 27,200 per 10 grams and silver at Rs 37,050 per kg in the national capital on Tuesday. Few days back, India — the world's largest consumer of gold — further eased import curbs by scrapping the controversial 80:20 scheme, under which importers were mandated to export 20 per cent of the total exports. on silver to USD 561 per kg in line with volatile A recent report commissioned by Wold Gold global price trends. The tariff value on imported Council (WGC) has suggested that India should gold was at USD 388 per 10 grams and silver move beyond import curbs and should come up 6 Daily Wednesday 17, December 2014 with a national gold policy to put an estimated agency reports citing Tata Steel management, 22,000 tonne of idle gold assets into active use. the steelmaker had imported 2.3 million tonne The report also recommended launch of of Australian ore and bought about 0.8 mt from several investment products, establishment of a steel miner NMDC in the last three months to Gold Board for managing import-export, develop run its more than 100-year-old steel plant in accredited refineries, drive gold monetisation by Jamshedpur because of the closure of its mines. incentivising banks and introduce compulsory EU steel mills losing market share to cheap imports: Eurofer quality certification of gold. Following HC order Odisha agrees to allow Tata Steel resume mining European Union steel mills are losing market share as cheap imports surge from countries such as China where steelmakers' margins are protected by domestic policies, steel body Eurofer said on Tuesday. EU steel demand has grown by about 4 percent this year but a 22 percent surge in finished steel imports means domestic deliveries by EU mills have increased by only about 1.5 percent, Eurofer said. Eurofer's members include top global The Odisha government, acting on an interim court order, has agreed to let Tata Steel steelmaker ArcelorMittal, ThyssenKrupp and Voestalpine . resume mining from four key iron ore mines in "The proliferation of unfair trade practices the state, which account for more than half the by non-EU steel producing countries is steelmaker's requirement. undermining the level playing field for EU "We have decided to implement the recent steel producers, increasingly weakening their Orissa High Court interim order and mining has margins," said new Eurofer director general Axel been allowed to resume until January 28 when Eggert. the court is to take up the matter again," said The European steel sector is struggling to state director of mines, Deepak Mohanty. With recover from the effects of the financial crisis, this, the company can resume mining at Joda with demand down some 25 percent since 2008. East, Joda West, Bamberi and Katamati mines. Last month, Tata SteelB, Europe's second- The development comes days after a largest steelmaker, said it did not expect swift Jharkhand High Court directed the state to improvement in market conditions, though rival issue express orders allowing the steelmaker to ArcelorMittal was more positive in its outlook mine, until the leases were renewed. The state for the EU. is to do this in a week or Tata Steel can resume EU policymakers need to enforce trade operations by December 18. According to instruments such as anti-dumping duties to 7 Daily Wednesday 17, December 2014 protect an industry that represents 1.3 percent output growth target at low levels in recent of the bloc's GDP and indirectly employs millions years. The Steel Ministry has asked NMDC to of Europeans, Eurofer said. increase iron ore production at a faster clip in NMDC to commission new iron ore mines the next few years than envisaged. NMDC will commission its new iron ore mines —Deposit -11B in Bailadila sector of Chhattisgarh and Kumaraswamy in Donimalai sector of Karnataka — in March and August of next year. At a performance review meeting at the Steel Ministry on Tuesday, NMDC officials said the two mines will add up 14 million tonne output capacity, which would help the public sector miner increase production levels substantially. The delayed projects forced NMDC to keep The mineral producer is to sign the production MoU for 2015-16 by end of this month. The Union Steel & Mines Minister Narendra Singh Tomar directed NMDC on Tuesday to aim for annual production of 75 mt iron ore by 2018-19 and 100 mt by 2020-21, according to a ministry statement. Earlier, it had decided to scale up its production of iron ore gradually. It aimed to double output at 60 mt by 2018-19. The 100 mt target was for 2024-25. The new target was assigned at the meeting, which also broke down annual achievable targets in the next few years. 8 Daily Wednesday 17, December 2014 Coal auction may push up cost of power generation: ICRA implementation projects," ICRA said. As a result, the auction process is expected to increase the cost of coal for the power sector, which in turn would put upward pressure on price of generation and retail tariff, it said. UCIL eyes stake in foreign uranium mining cos As shares of foreign uranium mining companies remain sedate as a fall-out of the continuing slide in ore prices, State-owned Uranium Corporation of India is considering picking up stakes in such companies, which would be its first overseas foray. Global uranium The auction of 74 coal blocks is likely to prices are currently at about $40 a pound, witness an intense competition among bidding slightly higher than the eight-year lows of companies and the exercise may push up the $20-25 that ruled earlier in the year. Since the fuel price for power sector, rating agency ICRA Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011, uranium said on Tuesday. prices had retreated, in the wake of a build-up in This in turn may put an upward pressure on inventories after Germany’s decision to unplug cost of power generation and the retail tariff, it its nuclear energy programme. Delays in the said. restarting of nuclear reactors in Japan further In a report, ICRA said the bidding for coal accentuated the supply glut in the market. blocks may be intense due to low execution The depressed prices of the ore are mirrored risks and their importance for both operational in the sliding share prices of most uranium and under implementation projects. miners, making them potential buys. D Acharya, These blocks are from over 200 coal mines Chairman of UCIL, said the company was looking whose allocations were quashed by the at buying stakes in uranium mines located in Supreme Court, which termed their allotment as Canada, Australia, Malaysia and Africa. “The "arbitrary and illegal". The first round of auction choice before us is to either buy the uranium at involving these blocks would be completed by current low prices or pick up shares in mining March 31. companies, which are ruling relatively low due "Given that the government is initially to the price trends,” he stated on the sidelines of focused on concluding the auction process the annual conference of Indian Nuclear Society. for identified mine blocks which are meant for the specified end uses, competition is likely to be intense for the affected project developers, both due to lower execution risks in such blocks and the importance of such mines in ensuring viability of both operational and under 9
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