PFL Weekly RIN Recap Desk: 239-390-2885 Dec 11, 2014 to Dec 17, 2014 The November EMTS data was released late Tuesday revealing inline estimates for the month. The production numbers reported across all D-codes were lower, although not all that much than the previous month as well as year over year. Many feel that the current break-even or negative economics for both the ethanol and biodiesel cash markets will continue with the slide in crude and RBOB. With blending economics being so poor and along with the continued uncertainty of when the EPA will actually announce in 2015, RIN values continue their push upward potentially approaching all time highs for the year. The spread between the 2014-2015 D4 rins have shown the largest increase over the last week. Just a month ago it was averaging 2-3cents but has now widened to 4.5-5.5cents. The tax extenders packing including the biodiesel tax credit looks to be headed for the President's signature which would make it retroactive again for the 2014 year. This would help a number of biodiesel producers for the year who were banking on this credit, although we seem to be headed for the same position going into 2015. D6 - 2013 63.75 59.75 63.75 High Low Close CBOT ETHANOL Month Settle Jan 15 1.6200 Feb 15 1.5600 Mar 15 1.5460 Apr 15 1.5440 Etoh - RBOB Diff Month Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 Settle 0.05 (0.02) (0.05) (0.26) D6 - 2014 66.00 60.75 65.00 D5 - 2013 63.75 59.75 63.75 D5 - 2014 65.50 61.50 65.50 D4 - 2013 63.00 59.50 63.00 D4 - 2014 68.00 62.50 67.00 RBOB Month Settle Jan 15 1.5662 Feb 15 1.5793 Mar 15 1.5992 Apr 15 1.7997 Implied E85 Price Month RBOB 2 Etoh E85 1.5 Calc 1.0594 1.0104 1.0015 1.0299 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 BO Futures ULSD Futures Jan 15 31.77 Jan 15 2.0085 Mar 15 31.97 Feb 15 1.9406 May 15 32.19 Mar 15 1.9088 Jul 15 32.40 Apr 15 1.8860 ULSD + RIN Value Jan 15 3.014 Feb 15 2.946 Mar 15 2.914 Apr 15 2.891 Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg) 1 10/22/2014 11/6/2014 11/21/2014 12/6/2014 69 D4 '14 64 D5 '14 59 D6 '14 54 49 44 10/21/2014 11/5/2014 11/20/2014 12/5/2014 275 Argo D5 - D6 Diff 0.50 250 FOB Santos 208.20 225 Implied NYH Anhydrous 229.70 200 NYH Santos LA 175 150 Chicago 175.50 NYH 198.25 LA Ethanol 185.50 125 10/21/2014 11/5/2014 11/20/2014 12/5/2014 This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2014 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved. PFL 2013-14 D6 Outlook all values in millions (unless stated otherwise) 2012 Recap E12s Produced E12 Surplus 12,978 per EMTS 2,039 per EMTS 2013 Data 2013 RVO Useable E12s E13s Required 2013 D6 production Est. Shortfall / (Surplus) 13,800 2,039 2012 carryout 11,761 13,324 Dec EMTS (1,563) 2013 US Ethanol Export (Denatured) estimate Est. Shortfall / (Surplus) 415.5 (1,147) using estimated full year exports Summary of 2013 D6 EMTS Data EIA weekly production avg D6 RINs from Renewable Diesel D6 RINs from Biodiesel 854.8 2013 EIA data 196.4 (115.5 gal) 55.2 (36.8 gal) 2014 Projections (Dec STEO) EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.) Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.) Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est) Ethanol demand at 10% (calc) 8,890 880 930 889 mb/d mb/d mb/d mb/d Chg from Nov 40 10 flat 40 2014 D6 RINs 2014 D6 proposed mandate Less Projected 2013 Carry Required daily production rate RIN generation needed per month 13,000 11,853 773.2 mb/d 987.7 million RINs / month Weekly average Ethanol production Most recent 4 week average YTD avg D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg. 990.0 week ended 980.5 4 wks ended 922.3 through 14,139 million RINs Jan-Oct EMTS D6 RIN data Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS Prepared by Jason Sawicki Progressive Fuels Limited T: 239.390.2885 [email protected] 13,009.9 million RINs 15,620 million RINs 12/12/2014 12/12/2014 12/12/2014 Dec '13 8,840 860 870 870