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Why have the Atlantic and Pacific LNG basins disconnected?
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Webinar
Start time: 10am
Market Reporting
Consulting
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Events
Why have the Atlantic and Pacific LNG basins
disconnected??
Agenda:
• Overview of LNG market
• Northeast Asia prices hit new low
• South America becomes smarter buyers
• Focus: Iberia gas and LNG market
• How does AOC impact reload fob prices?
• What are the options for Spanish LNG in tanks?
• Overview of LNG Daily report
• Q&A
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2006
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2013
Argus northeast Asia prices have hit new lows
21
19
17
15
midpoint
13
11
9
10 Apr 2012
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10 Apr 2013
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
10 Apr 2014
Why are Anea prices so low?
◦
◦
◦
◦
Early start-up of Papua New Guinea LNG
High LNG storage levels
Southeast Asian producers offering cargoes
Northwest Shelf LNG, Sakhalin tenders
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LNG Daily supply highlights table
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LNG Daily supply highlights table (close up)
Source: Argus LNG Daily report
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In the Atlantic basin, buyers are getting smarter
◦ Brazil signing strip deals
◦ Argentina waiting for the right time
◦ But South America is still a significant LNG market
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Brazil hydro still low, LNG import volumes still
high
100
800,000
Source: systems operator data,
customs data, Argus research
90
SE/CO
Tonnes from customs data
700,000
80
600,000
70
500,000
60
50
400,000
40
300,000
30
200,000
20
100,000
10
0
0
2008
2009
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2010
2011
2012
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
2013
2014
Argentina LNG market
30
900,000
Cubic metres of LNG
800,000
Average mean temperature in Buenos Aries (Celsius)
25
700,000
20
600,000
500,000
15
400,000
10
300,000
200,000
5
100,000
0
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: customs data, Weather Underground, Argus research
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What is the impact of cross-basin disconnect
on the Iberian reload market?
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Decline in volumes reloaded from Spain
1400
1200
1000
800
Reload volumes (1000m³ of LNG)
600
400
200
0
March
April
May
June
July to date
Source: Enagas, Argus data
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Destination of Spanish reload cargoes
March
Total
3 northeast Asia May
3 northeast Asia
5 South America
2 South America
4 South America
1 Kuwait
1 Mexico
1 Kuwait
1 India
1 India
1 USA
9
7
9
2 northeast Asia
June
April
2 northeast Asia
July
1 Malaysia
1 Puerto Rico
1 Singapore
2 South America
Total
5
2
Source: Argus data
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Premium of northeast Asian prices over Iberian
fob narrows
ANEA first half month and Iberia fob second half month, $/mn Btu
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
ANEA des
Iberia fob
10
9
03-Mar-2014
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Source: Argus
data
03-Apr-2014
03-May-2014
03-Jun-2014
03-Jul-2014
Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wider bid offer spread for Iberia reload fob than
for AWAF
Second half of August AWAF and Iberia fob reload ($/mn Btu)
AWAF bid
12.0
12.0
Iberia fob bid
Iberia fob offer
11.5
AWAF offer
11.5
11.0
AWAF
midpoint
11.0
10.5
Iberia fob midpoint
10.5
10.0
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.0
01-Jul-2014
08-Jul-2014
15-Jul-2014
22-Jul-2014
7.5
01-Jul-2014
08-Jul-2014
Source: Enagas
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15-Jul-2014
22-Jul-2014
AOC supports Iberia offers
Second half of August, $/mn Btu
12.0
11.5
11.0
AWAF offer
10.5
Iberia fob
offer
10.0
9.5
9.0
01-Jul-2014
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06-Jul-2014
11-Jul-2014
16-Jul-2014
21-Jul-2014
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
Source: Argus data
AOC at a premium to European gas hubs
August delivery contract, €/MWh
AOC
25.36
Peg Sud
21.50*
NBP
16.16
TTF
16.30
Source: Argus data. Prices from
22 July. *Last trade.
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No rise in sendout from Spanish terminals
450
400
Sendout (GWh/day)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
01-Mar
01-Apr
01-May
01-Jun
01-Jul
01-Aug
Source: Enagas
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August storage levels at Spanish terminals
BARCELONA
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
CARTAGENA
700
700
1,000 m³ LNG
1,000 m³ LNG
600
Aug-01
Aug-31
1,000 m³ LNG
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
Aug-01
Aug-31
E.F. Tk´s
Talón
E.F. Tk´s
Talón
Nivel Mínimo
Capacidad
Nivel Mínimo
Capacidad
BILBAO
350
HUELVA
Aug-01
Aug-31
E.F. Tk´s
Talón
Nivel Mínimo
Capacidad
SAGUNTO
700
1,000 m³ LNG
MUGARDOS
350
1,000 m³ LNG
300
600
300
250
500
250
200
400
200
150
300
150
100
200
100
50
100
50
0
0
Aug-01
Aug-31
Source: Enagas
1,000 m³ LNG
0
Aug-01
Aug-31
Aug-01
Aug-31
E.F. Tk´s
Talón
E.F. Tk´s
Talón
E.F. Tk´s
Talón
Nivel Mínimo
Capacidad
Nivel Mínimo
Capacidad
Nivel Mínimo
Capacidad
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AOC prices firm in Q4
Monthly AOC price, $/mn Btu
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.4
August
September
October
Source: Argus data
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September outlook
Supply and demand for September spot cargoes
Total
Supply
Demand
Number of cargoes
Number of cargoes
1
Nigeria
1
5
Snohvit
1
Greece (pricesensitive)
Turkey (pricesensitive)
2
PNG
3-5
Japan
1
Bintulu
1
CPC
2
Abu Dhabi
11
7-9
Source: Argus data
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About Argus LNG Daily
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Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
About Argus LNG Daily
Argus Atlantic Basin fob spot LNG
• Averages West Africa and Iberian
peninsula fob price
• Three front half-month assessments
Argus Latin America des spot LNG
• Netforward calculation
• Based on assessed fob prices,
shipping distance, charter and fuel
costs.
Argus Wallumbilla & Victoria indexes
• Assessed every Friday
• For the growing Australian gas market
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Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
About Argus LNG Daily
•
•
Supply and demand tables summarise
spot offers and requirements
Industry news captures latest happenings
in the market
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About Argus LNG Daily
•
•
•
•
•
Argus LNG Daily provides spot price assessments, information about
shipping movements, market-moving news and analysis.
Daily price assessments for the Atlantic basin for fob west Africa,
Iberian peninsula reloads and Trinidad and Tobago, and for des
northwest Europe, Iberia, Italy, Turkey and Greece. Derived prices for
Latin America and an Atlantic Basin index averaging west Africa and
Iberian peninsula re-exports, with accompanying market commentary.
Daily Asia-Pacific price assessments for des northeast Asia (Japan,
Taiwan and South Korea), China, India, fob Australia and the Middle East
with accompanying market commentary.
Market appropriate methodology. Argus consults with a range of
participants involved in different markets and publishes methodologies
for each price report on its website.
If you would like to receive a free trial to Argus LNG Daily please
contact us at [email protected]
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Q&A
PLEASE SUBMIT ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS NOW!
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Thank you very much for listening!
Contact details
Kwok Wan, LNG Daily editor – [email protected]
Kathleen Wainwright, deputy editor – [email protected]
Lauren Bryant, LNG reporter – [email protected]
Phone: +44 (0) 20 7780 4200
Website: www.argusmedia.com