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National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
Predictive Services
National Interagency Fire Center
Issued: December 1, 2014
Next Issuance: January 1, 2015
Outlook Period – December 2014, January and February through March 2015
Executive Summary
The December, January and February through March 2015 significant wildland fire potential forecasts
included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive
Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
December
- Long-term precipitation deficits and a risk off
offshore winds will keep fire potential elevated
through mid-December in southern California,
returning to near normal wildland fire potential for
the remainder of December.
- Below normal fire potential is expected for most
of the South.
January
- No areas of above normal fire potential are
expected for this period.
- Below normal fire potential will continue for
most of the South and Mid-Atlantic regions.
February through March
- No areas of above normal fire potential are
expected for this period.
- Below normal fire potential will continue across
central and southern Texas, Florida, and
southern Georgia.
Past Weather and Drought
Intense low pressure systems through mid-November brought significant precipitation to the Great
Lakes region and the Intermountain West, including drought-stricken California. Heavy snowfall was
recorded in New England and the Appalachian Mountains, with snow extending as far south as the
Carolinas.
In addition to bitter cold temperatures over most of the U.S. through mid-November, extremely heavy
lake effect snow fell over the Great Lakes and the northeastern states. This was followed by heavy
rain a few days later. Another system brought significant precipitation to the eastern U.S. late in the
month.
In contrast, several Santa Ana wind events developed over southern California, leading to dry,
offshore winds. Significant rain began over the state the last weekend of November.
Temperatures during the month of November were well below normal east of the Rockies. Above
normal temperatures were observed in the southwestern U.S. and California.
Most of the U.S. recorded below normal precipitation for the month of November. However, much of
southern and western Texas received over 300% of normal precipitation for the month. Western
Montana and much of Idaho also received above normal precipitation.
Extreme to exceptional drought remained over California, western Nevada, southern Oregon, and
western Oklahoma.
Left: Departure from Normal Temperature (top) and Percent of Normal Precipitation (bottom) (from High Plains
Regional Climate Center). Right: U.S. Drought Monitor (top) and Drought Outlook (bottom) (from National Drought
Mitigation Center and the Climate Prediction Center)
Weather and Climate Outlooks
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) a weak El Niño is predicted to develop this
month and continue into early 2015.
The CPC indicates a higher probability of warmer-than-normal conditions in Alaska, the western U.S.,
and the northeastern U.S. Precipitation is expected to be above median for the southern half of the
country and near median values for the remainder of the U.S. in December.
For December through January, above normal temperatures are likely to persist in Alaska and the
western U.S. Above median precipitation is expected along the Alaska coastline and the southwestern
U.S. Southern California and the Atlantic coast may also see above median precipitation into spring.
Below median precipitation is expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes.
Top row: One-month (December) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right). Bottom row: Three month
(January-March) outlook for temperatures (left) and precipitation (right). (from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA)
December 2014
January - March 2015
Geographic Area Forecasts
Alaska: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period. Normal during this
time of year indicates out of season conditions.
There is no drought identified within Alaska. Most of Alaska received only a small fraction of normal
precipitation in November, so snowpack is low in the north, and virtually non-existent in the south.
The forecast for this winter has a preference for warmer temperatures over most of the state with the
greatest probabilities over southwestern Alaska and the Panhandle. Heading into the new year, above
normal precipitation is forecast over the Gulf of Alaska coast to southwestern Alaska, while the eastern
Interior shows a high probability of being drier-than-normal.
Northwest: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
November 2014 proved to be dry and cold for the majority of Oregon and Washington. Northerly flow
from Canada provided several blasts of dry, cold air which resulted in cooler-than-normal conditions
for the month as a whole, particularly east of the Cascades. Southwestern Oregon proved to be the
only exception to the unusually cool temperatures in November. Rainfall was less-than-normal for
most of the region as a result of the dry and cold northerly flow except for sections of central and
eastern Oregon. Despite the blasts of cool air observed in November, the region has remained above
normal with respect to temperature so far in autumn of 2014.
The latest official climate outlooks from NOAA suggest warmer-than-normal conditions are likely in
December as well as January through March over the northwest geographic area, particularly west of
the Cascades. Forecasts totals of rain and snow through March are less clear but are trending toward
less-than-normal accumulation. These outlooks are consistent with those conditions seen during
weak El Niño events as is expected during winter 2014-2015. The warmer-than-normal conditions
would suggest higher-than-normal freezing levels in higher terrain and less-than-normal snow
accumulation at lower elevations.
Northern California and Hawaii:
outlook period.
Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the
The entire region has received near normal precipitation since September. Despite long term drought
conditions in most areas, fuels are more moist than normal for late autumn. Moist conditions are
expected to continue through December with at least near normal precipitation expected through
February.
In Hawaii: Even though many areas were a little drier-than-normal the past month all areas have
received much above normal precipitation over the past two months as well as much of the past
year.
Below normal precipitation is likely for much of December and a developing El Niño will need to be
monitored for drier and warmer conditions later this winter.
Southern California: Significant wildland fire potential return to normal for most of central California
but will remain above normal for the early part of December across select portions of central California
as well as most of southern California outside the deserts. Significant wildland fire potential will return
to normal over the remainder of the area by the beginning of January.
Seasonal rains will likely occur after one or two additional significant offshore episodes in early
December.
Northern sections of the geographic area have seen some rainfall during the past few weeks.
Although rainfall has generally been below normal in these areas, significant wildland fire potential is
expected to gradually decrease from north to south over central California due to shorter daylight
hours and periodic rainfall from Pacific troughs.
Southern California will continue to see above normal significant wildland fire potential through
December as sustained wetting rains have yet to occur south of Fresno and Monterey County.
Offshore wind events may still occur in early December. However, a rainy period may develop during
the middle to latter portions of December. This may bring a sharp reduction in significant wildland fire
potential toward the end of the month. Until then, fuels will remain very dry over Southern California
and will be susceptible to ignition during peak heating hours.
Significant wildland fire potential is expected to drop to near normal by the end of December across
the entire district as significant rainfall may finally return to the area.
The very high dead fuel component in beds of native brush and shrubs may allow for some initial
attack during dry and warm periods this winter, even after rainfall has occurred. These dead fuel beds
will not retain moisture efficiently and fuel moistures in these areas will likely fluctuate during cycles of
wet and dry periods this winter. Therefore, some initial attack and light resource demand may occur
throughout the winter, but except during windy periods, a lack of a dormant grass crop should keep
growth to a minimum.
Northern Rockies: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period. Normal
during this time of year indicates out of season conditions.
November was generally cooler- and wetter-than-normal. Mid-November featured a frigid Arctic air
mass that allowed for temperatures to plummet 30 degrees below normal in most locations for nearly a
week. Monthly precipitation totals were near normal except across southwestern Montana and
northeastern North Dakota where below normal precipitation occurred. Ongoing moderate drought
conditions continue across portions of central Idaho along with an expectation that these conditions
would gradually expand northward and eastward in the coming months.
Given the current forecast for a weak El Niño, December will be slightly cooler-than-normal with near
normal precipitation. These conditions are expected to continue through mid-February as the weak El
Niño lingers. There is some marginal concern in the long range outlook data for mid-February through
March. The best available data suggests there could be an overall ridging pattern in place over the
region. This could be problematic since this would occur during the traditional period for peak
snowpack accrual.
Western Great Basin: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
Average temperatures over the last 30 days were several degrees above normal over the southern
two-thirds of the Western Great Basin, and near normal in the far north as storm systems targeted the
northwestern U.S and brushed by northern Nevada. This also confined precipitation to northern and
western Nevada, where precipitation was near normal. Much drier conditions remained over the
southern two-thirds of the western Great Basin.
Drought continues over much of the Western Great Basin and is expected to persist through the end of
February. Drought conditions may improve over parts of southern and eastern Nevada if rain increases
as forecast into the winter.
The weather pattern has shifted to a more typical fall pattern, with low pressure systems periodically
bringing windy and colder and wetter periods to the Western Great Basin, especially over the northern
half of the region. Temperatures may drop to near to below normal in December through mid-January
due to a more active weather pattern bringing wetter and cooler weather to the area. Precipitation may
return to above normal over parts of southern Nevada by early January if the gradual shift to El Niño
continues, with above normal precipitation possible at times over northern and western areas through
mid-January.
No significant increase in significant wildland fire potential is expected through March, unless there are
strong wind events after a dry period and there are ignitions, which could pose a local concern for a
burning period.
Eastern Great Basin: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
The extended warm, dry fall ended during the first part of November when cooler temperatures and
precipitation moved into the area. Temperatures across the Eastern Great Basin were slightly above
normal across central and southern Utah and between one and three degrees below normal for
northern Utah, Idaho, and western Wyoming. Precipitation was below normal for the majority of the
region, with the exception of southern Idaho. Much of Utah and western Wyoming saw 30 to 50
percent of normal precipitation for the month, while large portions of southern Idaho saw precipitation
around 130% of normal, particularly in the higher elevations.
Drought conditions have not changed significantly over the past month across the area. Most of the
region remains in moderate drought, with an area of severe and extreme drought over southern Idaho.
The weather outlook for the month of December calls for near normal temperatures region wide with
above normal precipitation expected over Utah. Looking deeper into the winter months there is a
chance for temperatures to be on the warm side for much of the region. With weak El Niño conditions
projected to continue through the winter the best chance for above normal precipitation will be across
southern Utah.
If the forecasted conditions occur, drought conditions may worsen over central Idaho while southern
Utah may see a better grass crop than this past year.
Southwest: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
Fall temperatures have averaged slightly above normal Area wide and precipitation has generally been
above normal across southern sections of the Area and below normal across much of the north. This is
after a rather wet monsoon season across much of Arizona and the southern half of New Mexico into
most of adjacent West Texas.
Expect a generally milder pattern for the Area overall during the outlook period with a tilt towards
warmer west and cooler east. There is an expectation of an overall wetter scenario, especially across
northwestern sections of the Area associated with a likely active jet stream arriving out of the eastern
Pacific region into the Area from the west.
Minimal concerns exist overall for significant fire potential to develop into the mid-winter timeframe due
to expected weather pattern and a wetter overall precipitation signal the past six months. Some
concern continues about the drier area focused from the Four Corners region across the northern half
of New Mexico but this is expected to diminish over the next month or two.
Rocky Mountain: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
Long term drought persists primarily across far southern Colorado and much of Kansas as of late
November, with lesser drought indices isolated across portions of Wyoming, Nebraska, and South
Dakota. Precipitation into the middle portion of November varied from near to above normal amounts
extending from northeast Colorado into South Dakota, and over northern Wyoming, with drier-thannormal conditions elsewhere, mainly over Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Temperatures have
generally been well below normal.
Active weather is predicted during early December, characterized by frontal passages and coolerthan-normal conditions at times with seasonal chances for snowfall. Longer range predictors continue
with normal to colder-than-normal temperatures, and near normal precipitation and associated
mountain snowpack.
Eastern Area: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
Abnormally dry conditions were indicated on the U.S. Drought Monitor at the end of November 2014
across parts of Minnesota and the New England Metro area.
Colder-than-normal conditions are forecast across the majority of the Eastern Area this winter. This
should lead to near to below normal significant wildland fire potential for much of the geographic Area.
Drier conditions may develop over the eastern half of the Great Lakes as the winter progresses and
spread south into the eastern Big Rivers and western Mid-Atlantic States later in the winter season.
Southern Area: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
Occasional periods of elevated fire potential may occur but these will generally cause very little
concern.
A very active weather pattern is forecast for the Southern Area with precipitation events expected to
occur every three to six days. Arctic air that filters into the Area will be capable of reducing humidity
values into the 20 percent range, but these episodes will generally only last two to three days.
Periodic bursts of Arctic air will keep temperatures below normal.
The El Niño signature is expected to reach its maximum strength in the December-January time
frame. This will continue to support precipitation amounts that are at least normal, if not above normal
for most of Southern Area into February. Snow and ice events are expected, especially in the
Appalachian Mountains. These events could materialize in other areas as well as Arctic air invades
the region. These types of events will become more likely if a significant snow cover extends as far
south as the Ohio River Valley.
As we transition into late February and early March, there is a signal for drier conditions to develop
from the Appalachian Mountains southward toward the Gulf Coast. The fire activity in this broad area
of the South will be partially offset by the greening of vegetation, which can commence as early as
late February in deep South Texas and far southern Florida. Texas, Florida, and the Atlantic Coast
from North Carolina southward could continue to see above normal rainfall during this time.
Outlook Objectives
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook is intended as a decision support tool for
wildland fire managers, providing an assessment of current weather and fuels conditions and how
these will evolve in the next four months. The objective is to assist fire managers in making proactive
decisions that will improve protection of life, property and natural resources, increase fire fighter safety
and effectiveness, and reduce firefighting costs.
For questions about this outlook please contact the National Interagency Fire Center at (208) 387-5050
or your local Geographic Area Predictive Services Unit.
Note: Additional Geographic Area assessments may be available at the specific GACC websites. The GACC websites can
also be accessed through the NICC webpage at: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm