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Chinese Aluminum Quarterly
First Quarter 2011
Published in May 2011
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Table of Contents
Page
Executive Summary---------------------------------------------------------------------------------03
The Global and Chinese Primary Aluminum Market Balance--------------------------04
Price Movement---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------09
Production of Alumina and Aluminum--------------------------------------------------------12
Import and Export------------------------------------------------------------------------------------17
Consumption-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.19
Market Highlight Commentary-------------------------------------------------------------------24
Data-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------26
1
Data Included
Tables
Table 1: The World Primary Aluminum Market Balance
Table 2: China Primary Aluminum Market Balance
(kt)
(kt)
Table 3: Monthly Output of Alumina by Regions in China
(metric ton)
Table 4: Monthly Output of Primary Aluminum by Regions in China
Table 5: Monthly Output of Aluminum Semis by Regions in China
(metric ton)
(metric ton)
Table 6: Capacity and Output of Primary Aluminum in China by Region 2008-2010
Table 7: Chinese Alumina Production on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Table 8: Chinese Primary Aluminum Production on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Table 9: Import of Bauxite into China on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Table 10: Import of Alumina into China on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Table 11: Chinese Import and Export of Primary Al on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Table 12: Chinese Import and Export of Al Alloys on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Table 13: Chinese Import and Export of Al Semis on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Charts
Chart 1: The World’s Primary Aluminum Production in 2009-2011
Chart 2: Average Monthly LME Aluminum Cash Settlement Price
Chart 3: LME 3-Month Aluminum and SHFE 3-Month Aluminum Futures Contract Price (USD/t,
yuan/t)
Chart 4: Average Monthly SHFE Spot-month Aluminum Price
Chart 5: SHFE 3-Month Futures Contract, Guangdong Nanhai and Shanghai Changjiang Spot
Aluminum Price (yuan/t)
Chart 6: Price Ratio Of SHFE 3-Month Aluminum Futures Contract Price to The LME 3-Month
Aluminum, Exchange Rate Of RMB against USD, Break-Even Point Of Importing Primary
Aluminum from Foreign Country to China, Break-Even Point Of Exporting Aluminum from
China to Foreign Country
Chart 7: Spot Price of Imported Alumina and Chalco’s (yuan/t)
Chart 8: Annualized Rate of Chinese Alumina Output and Y-o-Y Growth Rate
Chart 9: Annualized Rate of Chinese Primary Aluminum Output and Y-o-Y Growth Rate
Chart 10: Monthly Chinese Primary Aluminum Output (10kt)
Chart 11: Chinese Bauxite Import and Price (CIF to Chinese Port)
Chart 12: Chinese Import and Export of Aluminum Related Products
Chart 13: Monthly Chinese primary aluminum consumption in 2009-2010
Chart 14: Annualized Rate of Chinese Aluminum Semis Output and Y-o-Y Growth Rate
Chart 15: Chinese Monthly Output of Alumina, Primary Aluminum and Semis (kt)
Chart 16: The Climate Index of the Housing Market and the Y-o-Y Sales Growth
2
Executive Summary

The turmoil in the North Africa and Middle East as well as the Japan’s
Honshu Island earthquake had great impact on commodity market. The EU
and the U.S. have separately implemented different fiscal and monetary
policies under the pressure of inflation, which intensifies volatility on the
global commodity. At the end of Q1 2011, LME aluminum cash settlement
price and 3-month futures contract price respectively rose by 5.7% and 6.6%
from the end of Q4 last year. The performance of domestic aluminum prices
was still weaker compared with LME aluminum in Q1. SHFE aluminum
spot-month futures contract price and 3-month contract price separately
increased by 0.7% and declined by 0.1% from the end of Q4 last year.

The goal of energy saving and emission reduction was achieved. China’s
primary aluminum production returned to growth in Q1 as domestic
aluminum smelters restarted up capacity. Antaike estimated that China’s
primary aluminum output increased to 4.65 million tonnes in Q1 this year.

The U.S. Commerce Department made a final determination to impose
anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on import of aluminum extrusion from
China. Therefore, Chinese aluminum semis export to the U.S decreased
significantly. The Japan’s Honshu Island earthquake has affected demand for
aluminum somewhat. Antaike predicts that Chinese primary aluminum and
aluminum alloys exports will largely decrease in Q2 compared with Q1 this
year.

Chinese primary aluminum consumption was flat in Q1. The consumption
was down by 6.4% from Q4 last year. Antaike has raised Chinese primary
aluminum consumption forecast for 2011 to 19.00 million tonnes, a growth of
8.6% from 2010.

Due to the accelerated growth of the primary aluminum production, the
world’s primary aluminum market will continue to have surplus this year.
Antaike has adjusted the supply surplus to 960 kt in 2011.

The soaring crude oil price and the dropping USD will continuously push
up aluminum price. LME aluminum is expected to hit a periodic high in the
first half of Q2 this year.
3
The Global and Chinese Aluminum Market Balance
The global market
The complication of the global economic operation has been a focus of market players.
Last year, the feature of the global economic operation was recovery. Besides the
recovery, the economy needs to be steady this year. The U.S. still implements the
QE2 on schedule. The economic indexes such as GDP and unemployment rate show
that the U.S. economy is recovering at healthy pace. Of course, the recovery is based
on sacrifice of benefits of other countries. According to the report of International
Monetary Fund, the U.S. economy will grow 2.8% this year and further up by 2.9%
next year. Because of the relatively low inflation pressure, it is proper for the U.S. to
implement the loose monetary policy. However, the loose monetary policy has caused
inflation globally: the economies of Europe, Japan and BRICs have been affected. For
example, Russia’s GDP growth was just 2% in Q1 this year, down from 4% in the
same time last year. Meanwhile, the inflation pressure have forced China and EU
have to raise interest rate. Despite of the complication, the U.S.-led army’s military
intervention in Libya is escalating. Therefore, crude oil price is soaring and thus
inflation pressure is increasing. The global economic recovery will face more troubles.
Amid the complication of the economic operation, aluminum price, which used to be
relatively stable, fluctuated largely in Q1. Market players believe that the stable
movement of Chinese aluminum price in Q1 prevented large fluctuation of overseas
aluminum price that was controlled by speculative funds. Otherwise, the global
primary aluminum producers and users will be largely impacted by the volatility of
overseas aluminum price.
Entering 2011, overseas aluminum price stays at relatively high level although
retreated for several times. The consolidation period was relatively short and therefore
had little influence to the aluminum producers. In the meantime, the bullish sentiment
and the increasing demand for aluminum have propelled most of investors to prefer
long positions on the LME aluminum. The nice performance of LME aluminum has
made increase in profits of the aluminum producers although sales of partial
producers decreased in the period. Alcoa made up loss and obtained profits of
USD258 million in Q4 2010, versus to a loss of USD277 million in Q4 2009. Rio Tinto
reported a record profits of USD14.3 billion in 2010 with strong performance of its
aluminum operations. The U.S. Ormet Aluminum got net profits of USD39.75 million in
2010, an increase of 21.3% from 2009. Dubai Aluminum gained USD577.1 million in
2010, up by 101.9% from USD285.8 million in 2009, and the company’s sale
revenues was USD2.36 billion in 2010, up 25.8% from USD1.87 billion in 2009. It is
expected that Indian Nalco will get profits of USD223 million in the financial year
2010-2011, up 23% from last financial year and the sale revenues will increase to
USD1.282 billion.
The increasing profits and growing demand for aluminum have encourage the
4
aluminum producers to speed up reactivating of idled capacity and construction of
new aluminum smelter projects. Early 2011, Alcoa announced that it will restart up the
three aluminum smelters, namely, Massena East, Wenatchee, and Intalco aluminum
smelter. Because Alcoa has signed agreement with power companies, it needs to
implement the contract. Plus the rising LME aluminum price and optimistic attitude
toward demand growth of aluminum, Alcoa reactivated the facilities in February and
March separately. Antaike has learned that the restart-up will bring Alcoa additional
primary aluminum output of 137 kt this year and further up to 200 kt next year. UC
Rusal declared in March that it holds optimistic attitude toward the aluminum market
and thus it plans to boost its primary aluminum production by 2% this year compared
with last year. Moreover, UC Rusal will inject funds to expand capacity of its aluminum
smelters in Siberia. Aluminum Bahrain has not been affected by the strike and its
facilities still operate in full swing. Furthermore, Aluminum Bahrain intends to increase
aluminum export to Europe, including aluminum bar, rod, castings and rolled products.
Besides, partial aluminum smelters in the east Europe, Middle East and Africa plan to
lift output in 2011 to get more profits in view of the good aluminum price. The global
primary aluminum production has entered into a higher level this year from the flat
stage in Q4 last year.
The global various regions saw growth in primary aluminum output in Q1 this year. Of
which, the growth in Asian region is faster the average level. The output growth in the
South America and Europe also turned to positive from minus. According to the IAI
data, the global primary aluminum production (excluding China, Korea, Iran, Poland,
Romania, Latin America, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia) was 2.086 million tonnes
in the first two months of 2011, an increase of 7.4% from the same period of 2010. In
February alone, the average daily output was 69.6 kt, up 7.2% from a year earlier. The
output kept on growing for several consecutive months. The annualized rate of the
global primary aluminum production hit a record high in Q1 this year.
Chart 1: The World’s Primary Aluminum Production in 2009-2011
5
In Q1, the performance of the western building and construction industry was poor. So,
market players have more expectations on the automobile industry that performed
strongly last year and hoped it could maintain the fast growth and therefore further
boost demand for aluminum in America and Europe. Entering 2011, let’s take a look to
the auto industry.
The U.S. auto market is not bad this year. The auto production increased by 13.6%
year on year in the first two months with the growth rate in February reaching 17.6%.
In breakdown, the output of passenger vehicles decreased by 4.7% from a year
earlier while light cars and heavy trucks respectively increased 24.6% and 39.2% year
on year. The sales of light cars show a growing trend due to continued rise of fuels.
The sales increased by 9% year on year in March. Relevant organization forecast that
the sales of light cars will expand by around 9% this year from last year. In the North
America, auto sales increased by about 15% year on year in the first two months this
year and sales of passenger vehicles grew by 5.8% from a year earlier. The auto
production in the North America in February was equal to the monthly highest level for
last year. However, the Japan’s Honshu Island earthquake has influenced the supply
chain and thus some Japanese-capital auto plants in the North America may halt
production in Q2. It was reported that 10-15% automotive parts of Toyota plants in the
North America are imported from Japan. At present, Toyota has decided to temporally
stop working overtime in the North America to reserve partial stockpile for backup.
The European auto market was good in the first two months this year. The auto
production increased by 2% from the same period of last year. Of which, the output of
France and Germany respectively grew by 11.3% and 17.7% year on year. But Italy
and Britain reported a decline of 18.7% and 5.3% in the production respectively. The
Asian auto market (outside of China) also performed strongly in Q1. The sales of
Korea’s top five automakers amounted to 1.815 million units, up 16.2% from Q1 last
year. The auto sales of Vietnam and India also maintained the rapid growth in Q1 as
did in Q4 last year.
A month passed after the Honshu Island earthquake. The figures provided by the
Japanese Automobile Sale Association show that Japan’s auto sales dropped by
around 30% in March this year compared with last March. Of which, the sales of new
auto was 230 thousand units. The downturn in car sales was because of the
earthquake. The GDP of the Northeast Japan, which was hit by the earthquake,
accounted for 7.3% of Japan’s total. The earthquake has a great impact on the
Japanese economy and the supply disruption leads to a supply shortage for Japanese
production bases and then slows down industrial production of Japan.
The strong performance of the U.S. auto industry directly boosted demand for
aluminum from the downstream aluminum fabrication enterprises in Q1. The
earthquake did not affected the auto sales in March but the influence may emerged in
April and May and then weaken aluminum demand in Q2. Although the Japanese
domestic auto factories resumed production in April along with shortage of parts and
6
components, power supply cut and transportation disruption, the prospect of the
industry is not optimistic. Industrial statistics show that the earthquake causes a loss
of 600 thousand units of auto in Japan. Besides Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan
and other automakers, the European automaker who use Japanese electronic parts
are also affected by the earthquake. Furthermore, some influences may begin to take
effect in April and May.
To sum up, the performance of the western auto industry was not bad in Q1. However,
we should take a prudent attitude toward the industry in Q2.
In Q1, LME aluminum price was on the rise and the U.S. still implemented the loose
monetary policy. So, the aluminum inventory linked with financing has not been
released on market and the global aluminum market balance has not been affected.
Because the Japan factor did not take effect immediately in Q1, the global aluminum
market ran well. But the increasing production of aluminum smelters has influenced
the market balance to some extent. Antaike saw a surplus of around 350 kt on the
global primary aluminum market in Q1 this year.
Table 1: The World Primary Aluminum Market Balance (kt)
2008
2009
2010
Q1 2011e
2011 f
2012 f
Supply
40,050
37,910
42,500
10,760
45,620
47,500
Consumption
38,100
35,380
42,200
10,410
44,660
47,050
Balance
+1,950
+2,530
+300
+350
+960
+450
Source: IAI, Antaike
Chinese aluminum market
At the start of 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expressed
that the nonferrous metals industry should accelerate industrial upgrading, adjust the
industrial structure, change the development pattern during the Twelve Five-Year
Plan(2011-2015); and strictly curb rapid expansion in smelting capacity, phase out
backward capacity, conduct acquisition and regrouping, encourage cross-industry
merger among coal, electric power and aluminum industries. The development
blueprint for the nonferrous metals for the Twelve Five-Year Plan(2011-2015) was
issued in early March this year. Based on the current energy consumption and
production capacity of the domestic aluminum smelting sector, the policy points out
that strong-strong cooperation, merger and acquisition should be conducted in the
industry.
Entering 2011, domestic aluminum smelters accelerated restarting capacity that were
idled for energy saving and emission reduction in H2 2010, especially in Q4, as
aluminum price is strong and the periodic task of energy saving and emission
reduction task temporarily is finished. The aluminum smelters in the central region
reactivated almost idled capacity in Q1, including Henan Shenhuo, Wanji, Yulian
Energy Group, etc. Henan Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Co., Ltd. in early March
announced that it was restarting up the idled capacity of up to 140 ktpy and the
restarting would come to an end in mid-April. In Shandong province, the utilization
7
rate of aluminum smelters was relatively high in Q1 with some of them operating at full
capacity.
The restarting-up of suspended capacity in the above regions and commissioning of
newly-built capacity in the west region had an impact on domestic aluminum spot
market to some extent in Q1. The short-term impact was seen in the several trading
days after the Chinese Spring Festival holidays. In the bulk of Q1, the impact on the
market was gradual and sustainable.
In Q1, some aluminum smelters were affected by various factors. In early January this
year, Hubei province reduced power supply for aluminum smelters, iron & steel plants
and so on in order to ensure stable power supply for local residents. The operation of
the aluminum smelters were affected in January. However, production of the
aluminum smelters returned to normal in February. Antaike estimates that the output
loss of the aluminum smelters was 4.0-5.0 kt in the first two months this year.
In the late of February, Shanxi Guanlv Aluminum Co., Ltd. announced that it will close
and eliminate its 85 KA pre-baked potline by the end of 2011 according to circular “To
phase out backward capacity” approved by the State Council and issued by the
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. At present, the company has
reported the closure plan and prepared for the following work.
In Q1, most of regions reported growth in primary aluminum production except Hubei,
Hunan and other provinces. If there is not special events and accidents, Chinese
primary aluminum production will grow undoubtedly this year.
The data released by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association(CNIA) show that
China produced 2.59 million tonnes of primary aluminum in the first two months this
year, down by 2.5% year on year. The output was 1.30 million tonnes in February
alone, similar to that in the same time last year, up by 9% from the low level seen in
November 2010. The monthly Chinese primary aluminum output continued to rise in
Q1. The increasing supply had a significant influence on domestic aluminum spot
market in February and March. The domestic aluminum inventory, which decreased
somewhat in January, may rise again in the rest of this year.
Due to the seasonal factor and the holiday, aluminum consumption decreased a little
in Q1 last year from Q4 this year, but similar to the average level in Q2 andQ3. The
Honshu Island earthquake also affected demand for aluminum in partial Chinese
industries. Antaike think that the influence on aluminum market was both positive and
negative.
To sum up, Antaike estimated that Chinese primary aluminum output was 4.65 million
tonnes in Q1 this year, up 8.5% from a year earlier. In Q2, Chinese primary aluminum
production will maintain the growth unless domestic aluminum price largely declined.
The output is estimated at 4.80 million tonnes in 2011.
In Q1, Chinese primary aluminum consumption was estimated at 4.33 million tonnes,
up by 6% year on year. Q2 is the traditional strong consumption season for aluminum
8
but we should take a prudent attitude as Chinese aluminum products export may
decrease and the domestic real estate sector face more uncertainties this year.
Antaike predicts that Chinese primary aluminum consumption will reach 19.00 million
tonnes in 2011, up 8.6% from 2010.
Table 2: China Primary Aluminum Market Balance (kt)
2008
2009
2010
Q1 2011
2011 f
Production
13,600
13,630
17,600
4,650
19,500
Net import
-550
1,450
-390
-30
-200
Supply
13,050
15,080
17,410
4,620
19,300
Consumption
12,500
13,800
17,490
4,330
19,000
+550
+1,280
-80
+290
+300
Balance
Source: CNIA, China Customs, Antaike
Price Movement
In Q1, the global political and economic situation was extremely turbulent. The global
hot money paid more attentions to the LME base metals along with the recovery of the
U.S. and other western countries. The speculative funds increase long positions of
copper, tin and other base metals whose supply are relatively tight while take a
wait-to-see attitude on aluminum. LME copper, nickel and tin experienced upward
trend in January and February while LME aluminum moved rangebound at the same
time.
As for base metals, the period from this March to mid-April was an important period:
the political crisis firstly occurred in Egypt and then rapidly spread Libya and other
countries of North Africa and Middle East. The region is the global most important
producing area of crude oil. The turmoil directly led to soar of the global crude oil price
and then drive up other commodity prices. Another important even was the Japan’s
Honshu Island earthquake and the nuclear leakage crisis, which has affected demand
for metal and Japanese economy. The third factor is that Europe began to raise up
interest rate, which is negative to the USD in the short term and base metals price in
medium and long term.
The LME aluminum cash settlement price and three-month futures contract price
ended at USD2,599/t and USD2,632/t on March 31, 2011, respectively up by 5.7%
and 6.6% from USD2,459/t and USD2,468/t at the end of December 2010. The
average cash price and 3-mont price was USD2,500/t and USD2,524/t in Q1 2011,
separately up by 6.7% and 6.6% from Q4 2010, up by 15.6% and 15.0% from Q1
2010.
Chart 2: Average Monthly LME Aluminum Cash Settlement Price
9
Antaike’s viewpoint is that the hike of interest rate of EU will help maintain the bullish
Euro against the USD and commodity prices will continue to go up as commodities
are priced with the USD. The global liquidity expansion has continued since the
financial crisis but now it seems to come to an end. Some countries have adopted
tightening monetary policy. Even the U.S., may adjust the loose monetary policy in the
second half of this year in view of the improved economy. So, the foundation of
excessive liquidity for pushing up commodity prices will be shaken. Besides, the
economy of Europe and Japan will be impacted by the debt crisis and the earthquake
respectively. If the Libya crisis is resolved, the commodity market will be hit in view of
that most of the prices approach or hit record highs.
In Q2, LME aluminum is likely to further move up but the risk will largely increase if the
price reach USD2,700/t or above because of the fundamentals. Antaike sees LME
3-month aluminum running in a range of USD2,500-2,800/t in Q2.
Chart 3: LME 3-Month Aluminum and SHFE 3-Month Aluminum Futures
Contract Price (USD/t, yuan/t)
19000
2800
18000
2600
17000
2400
2200
15000
2000
14000
USD/t
yuan/t
16000
1800
13000
1600
12000
11000
1400
10000
1200
SHFE 3-Month
LME 3-Month
Source: LME, SHFE
Chart 4: Average Monthly SHFE Spot-month Aluminum Price
10
Chart 5: Guangdong Nanhai, Shanghai Changjiang Spot Aluminum Price and SHFE
3-Month, Trade Volume and Open Interest of all SHFE Aluminum Futures Contracts
(Unit: yuan/t, lot)
17400
340000
320000
300000
280000
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
17200
17000
16800
16600
16400
16200
Nanhai
Changjiang
SHFE spot-month
SHFE 3-month
Trade Volume
Open Interest
Source: SHFE, Antaike
Domestic aluminum price was flat and weaker than LME aluminum in Q1. Domestic
aluminum kept rising in December last year but the macro-control measure has
curbed enthusiasm of speculative funds to drive up the aluminum price.
The SHFE aluminum spot-month futures contract price and three-month aluminum
futures contract price finished at 16,450 yuan/t and 16,770 yuan/t on March 31, 2011,
respectively down by 0.7% and 0.1% from the end of December 2010. The average
spot month price and 3-mont price was 16,638 yuan/t and 16,891yuan/t in Q1 2011,
separately up by 4.0% and 3.6% from Q4 2010, up by 0.3% and down by 0.1%from
Q1 2010.
Chart 6: Price Ratio Of SHFE 3-Month Aluminum Futures Contract Price to The
LME 3-Month Aluminum, Exchange Rate Of RMB against USD, Break-Even
Point Of Importing Primary Aluminum from Foreign Country to China,
Break-Even Point Of Exporting Aluminum from China to Foreign Country
11
6.84
6.82
6.8
6.78
6.76
6.74
6.72
6.7
6.68
6.66
6.64
6.62
6.6
6.58
6.56
6.54
6.52
6.5
9
8.6
8.2
7.8
7.4
7
6.6
6.2
5.8
5.4
Price Ratio
Import
Export
Exchange Rate
Source: LME, SHFE, People’s Bank of China
Chart 7: Spot Price of Imported Alumina and Chalco’s
(yuan/t)
4800
4400
4000
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
Import
Chalco
Source: Chalco, Antaike
Production of Alumina and Aluminum
Alumina
The CNIA data show that China produced 5.31 million tonnes of alumina in the first
two months this year, up 9.3% from the same period last year. In February alone, the
alumina output was 2.585 million tonnes, equivalent to an annualized rate of 33.70
million tonnes. The output increased obviously because a number of
newly-constructed projects ramped up to full capacity. Shandong, Guizhou and
Chongqing reported growth in the alumina production.
.
Table 3: Monthly Output of Alumina by Regions in China
Region
tonne
Chinese Total
Shanxi
March 11
January-March 11
% Change January-March 11/10
February 11
March 10
2,959,853
8,270,210
12.11
2,585,257
2,516,855
413,245
1,182,548
43.47
377,882
274,942
12
Shandong
977,360
2,676,542
7.20
856,841
837,859
Henan
870,570
2,492,235
7.30
771,721
804,330
Guangxi
477,658
1,370,717
2.08
425,075
459,418
32,886
67,094
71.73
23,670
15,058
188,133
481,074
36.88
130,068
125,248
Chongqing
Guizhou
Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA)
In Q1, domestic alumina market was weaker compared with the overseas market.
After Chinese Spring Festival holiday, the aluminum smelters in Henan, Guangxi and
so on reactivated the suspended capacity and thus demand for alumina increased
steadily. Non-Chalco alumina spot price went up to 2,750-2,850 yuan/t. Chalco on
March 3 lifted its spot alumina price to 3,000 yuan/t, up by 100 yuan/t, or 3.45%. It was
the first time Chalco raised the alumina price since November 10 last year. Encourage
by the rise of Chalco alumina price, Non-Chalco alumina producers further raised the
price to 2,800-2,900 yuan/t. However, Non-Chalco alumina spot price dropped to
2,700-2,850 yuan/t along with the decline of aluminum price at the end of March.
Because of continued rise of imported alumina price and decrease of alumina import,
imported alumina stockpiles at Chinese ports dropped to a relatively low level. The
imported alumina spot was traded in 3,000-3,150 yuan/t in Q1.
In Q1, Chinese aluminum production increased steadily because the newly-added
capacity were put into production and domestic aluminum refineries operated in full
swing. Chalco Zunyi alumina refinery delivered the first batch of alumina to client in
November last year and ramped up to full capacity of 800 ktpy in Q1 this year.
Chongqing Nanchuan Xianfeng alumina refinery put its newly-built project with
capacity of 300 ktpy into production at the end of 2010 and reached full capacity in Q1,
which made alumina output of Chongqing increasing by 42.5% year on year in the first
two months this year. Shandong Chiping Xinfa and Weiqiao Aluminum were the major
contributor for alumina growth in Shandong province. Besides, Shandong Nanshan
commissioned the stage two’s the second 400ktpy alumina project at the end of
March. It is expected that alumina production of Shandong province will keep on
growing in the coming months.
In February, Datang International Power Co., Ltd. and Qinghua University’s project of
extracting alumina from coal ash was put into production in Tuoketuo of Inner
Mongolia. The designed alumina capacity is 240 ktpy. Other Chinese power
enterprises including Huaneng, Guodian, Huadian, China Power Investment
Corporation as well as Chalco and other aluminum companies have paid more
attentions to the usage of high-aluminum coal ash. On February 22, the National
Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) issued a guideline “To enhance usage
of high-aluminum coal ash”, setting threshold and requirement for development of
high-aluminum coal ash. However, the Datang alumina project still has some technical
problems to be resolved. If the technology and facility are improved and the problems
are resolved, the high-aluminum coal ash will become an important relay base of
aluminum resource in China.
13
On March 27, China Hongqiao Aluminum debut on Hong Kong stock exchange. The
shares were traded actively in the first trading day and closed at HKD7.9 per share, up
9.7% compared with the IPO price of HKD7.2 per share. It is estimated that the
company has raised around USD6.37 billion of funds from the IPO. The company
previously planned to launch the IPO in January this year but the poor market at that
time forced the company to postpone the IPO.
Chart 8: Annualized Rate of Chinese Alumina Output and Y-o-Y Growth Rate
40
60
50
40
30
30
25
20
%
million metric tons
35
10
20
0
15
-10
10
-20
Alumina Output
Growth Rate
Source: CNIA
Aluminum
Because the energy saving and emission reduction goal for Eleventh Five-Year Plan
was achieved, Chinese aluminum smelters began to restart up the idled capacity at
the beginning of 2011. According to Antaike’s survey, Chinese primary aluminum
production was 4.65 million tonnes in Q1, up 9.4% year on year. The average daily
output was 51.6 kt in Q1, up 9.3% year on year.
In January, the rising aluminum prices both at home and abroad propelled domestic
aluminum smelters to speed up reactivating idled capacity. However, the upcoming of
Chinese Spring Festival holidays delayed the restarting-up. The output for January
increased by 9% from December 2010. There were two reasons for the output growth.
First, most of the aluminum smelters have captive power stations and the power
supply is stable. Therefore, the aluminum smelters can reduce output by lowering
ampere rather than shutting down facility. If the ampere returns to normal, the
production will also return to normal rapidly. Second, in this round of production cut,
the output of the aluminum smelters who have no captive power stations and have to
purchase power from local power grid enterprises decreased sharply in energy saving
and emission reduction task. In the same period, the newly-added capacity of the
northwest regions were gradually put into production. So, the output in January still
increased significantly from December.
In February, the aluminum production was affected by the Spring Festival holidays.
After the holidays, domestic aluminum smelters accelerate the reactivating. In Henan,
Guangxi, Sichuan, Hunan provinces, aluminum smelters boosted production mainly
by reactivating idled capacity. In Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other west
14
regions, aluminum smelters lifted production mostly because newly-added capacity
came on stream. According to Antaike’s survey, the annualized rate of Chinese
primary aluminum output reach around 19.2 million tonnes in March this year, up by
around 1.0 million tonnes compared with that in December last year.
The large-scale restarting up idled capacity was in our expectation in Q1. It is
anticipated that the aluminum market will be pressured by the increasing supply in Q2.
Moreover, a new round of construction of aluminum smelter projects has occurred in
Xinjiang. Antiake has learned that domestic key aluminum producers kicked off
projects respectively at the end of last year and the start of this year. It needs some
time to watch how much will be the influence to the domestic aluminum market from
the so many newly-built projects in Xinjiang in the future.
Table 4: Monthly Output of Primary Aluminum by Regions in China
Region
(tonne)
Chinese total
March 11
January-March 11
1,414,923
4,035,974
% Change January-March 11/10
-0.42
February 11
March 10
1,303,565
1,394,281
Tianjin
0
Hebei
0
Shanxi
Inner Mongolia
Liaoning
76,068
218,233
-0.91
68,227
74,793
147,954
429,685
21.26
133,453
126,312
17,558
51,106
4.76
15,908
17,062
Jilin
0
Heilongjiang
557
Shanghai
0
Jiangsu
8,905
25,584
-2.91
8,050
8,302
Zhejiang
12,965
37,588
-0.04
11,697
12,973
Anhui
Fujian
0
12,436
36,457
102.48
11,735
6,328
Jiangxi
0
Shandong
171,485
490,462
1.95
167,103
163,759
Henan
288,528
811,994
-15.63
277,572
334,100
Hubei
29,942
87,057
-12.17
28,279
33,773
Hunan
39,025
81,845
-2.80
21,480
29,410
Guangdong
Guangxi
Chongqing
0
62,414
161,318
-8.06
53,695
56,967
9,070
26,245
3.37
8,687
8,491
15
Sichuan
68,366
179,064
14.37
56,931
53,454
Guizhou
67,973
195,903
-18.42
61,805
81,687
Yunnan
79,466
239,075
35.53
78,048
57,246
Shaanxi
21,398
68,143
18.52
23,149
17,992
Gansu
92,269
273,332
6.44
79,047
84,573
Qinghai
131,326
402,955
2.86
134,996
151,265
Ningxia
54,919
170,715
-23.54
59,120
70,437
Xinjiang
22,856
49,213
210.18
4,583
4,800
Source: CNIA
Chart 9: Annualized Rate of Chinese Primary Aluminum Output and Y-o-Y
Growth Rate
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
16
%
million metric tons
18
14
12
10
Aluminum Output
Growth Rate
Source: CNIA
Chart 10: Monthly Chinese Primary Aluminum Output (10kt)
Note: Antaike’s estimation including the aluminum output of some producers such as Shandong Weiqiao that are not reported to
the CNIA.
16
Import and Export
In the first two months this year, Chinese bauxite imports averaged at 2.59 million
tonnes, slightly more than that in the whole 2010 but much bigger than that for same
time last year because domestic alumina refineries lifted production to satisfy growing
demand from the aluminum smelters. The CNIA data show that Chinese alumina
output increased by 9.3% year on year to 5.31 million tonnes in the first two months
this year. Among the imported bauxite, the imports from Indonesia accounted for 74%
of the Chinese total; the imports from Australia represented for 20%. The imported
bauxite price in Q1 was similar to that in Q4 last year.
The rapid growth of home-made alumina production has impacted the alumina
imports. Besides, the international alumina price stays at relatively high level was
another reason behind reduction of the alumina imports this year. In the first two
months, China imported 567 kt of alumina, down by 48% year on year. In February
alone, the alumina import was 225 kt, dropping for two consecutive months. Australia
is still the biggest alumina exporter to China. Antaike estimates that the average
monthly alumina imports will be 270-350 kt in Q2.
China imported 52 kt of primary aluminum in the first two months this year with a
decrease of 12.6% year on year and exported 0.7 kt with a sharp decline of 89.9%
year on year. Taking account of the aluminum alloys, the net exports of aluminum and
the alloys was 24 kt in January-February this year.
Japan has been the key destination for Chinese aluminum alloy export. Among the 91
kt of aluminum alloy exports in January-February, 47.5% was exported to Japan. It is
expected that the monthly aluminum alloy export to Japan will decrease by 30-40 kt in
Q2 for the earthquake. The average monthly aluminum and the alloy export will be
8.0-15 kt in Q2. The decrease of the aluminum alloy export is a negative factor for
domestic aluminum price.
In Q1, Chinese aluminum semis import continued to decrease month on month. The
average monthly imports dropped by 9.5% in Q1 from that in Q4 last year. The
aluminum semis import is expected to change little and stand in 41-46 kt in Q2
Entering 2011, Chinese aluminum profile exporters have faced more challenges. The
U.S. Commerce Department on March 29 made a final determination to impose
anti-subsidy duty of up to 8.02-374.15% and anti-dumping duty of 32.79-33.28% on
import of aluminum extrusion from China. Compared with the preliminary
determination, the anti-dumping duty slightly dropped but the anti-subsidy duty largely
increased. At present, the case has transferred to the International Trade
Commission(ITC). If the ITC makes a final rule, the U.S. Commerce Department will
issue the order to levy the duty on China-made aluminum extrusions. According to the
figures provided by the U.S. Commerce Department, the value of Chinese aluminum
extrusions to the U.S. amounted to USD513.5 million in 2009 and USD503 million in
2010. Antaike has learned that the U.S. has been the biggest importer for Chinese
17
aluminum extrusions, accounting for one fourth of Chinese total exports. Besides, the
Indian Safeguard Bureau on February 14 began an investigation on whether India will
continue to impose safeguard duty on import of aluminum sheet & strip and foil from
China after it received an application from the Aluminum Association of India and
Hindalco Industries who claim that large amount of import of the products from China
at a relatively low price have hurt the Indian aluminum industry and the threat still
exists. The Indian aluminum industry hopes that the safeguard duty will extend by two
years.
In the first two months this year, China imported 88 kt of aluminum semis, up 8.1%
year on year, and exported 368 kt aluminum semis, up 33.1% year on year. Due to the
Spring Festival holiday, the export largely declined to 149 kt in February.
Among the aluminum semis export, the aluminum sheet & strip export growth was
70.6%, the biggest value; the foil export growth was 25.6% while the extrusion export
recorded a decrease of 2.1% year on year due to the foreign trade barrier. Antaike
predicts that Chinese aluminum semis export will decrease month on month in Q2 and
the average monthly exports will be 150-180 kt.
Chart 11: Chinese Bauxite Import and Price (CIF to Chinese Port)
4,000,000
70
3,500,000
60
2,500,000
2,000,000
50
1,500,000
1,000,000
40
USD/t CIF
metric ton
3,000,000
500,000
0
30
Import
Price
Chart 12: Chinese Import and Export of Aluminum Related Products
Chinese alumina import (kt)
Chinese Al scraps import (metric ton)
700
350,000
600
310,000
500
270,000
400
230,000
300
190,000
200
150,000
100
110,000
0
70,000
18
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Chinese primary Al import/export (metric ton)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Export
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Chinese Al alloy import/export(metric ton)
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Import
Export
Chinese Al semis imp/exp (metric ton)
Import
Oother Al products import/export (metric ton)
280,000
70,000
140,000
5,000
240,000
60,000
120,000
200,000
50,000
4,000
100,000
40,000
80,000
80,000
30,000
60,000
2,000
40,000
20,000
40,000
1,000
160,000
120,000
Export
Import
3,000
Export
Import
Source: The General Administration of Customs of P. R. China
Consumption
The domestic real estate and transportation industries, the two biggest users of
aluminum in China, saw a large growth in aluminum consumption in Q4 last year.
However, the two industries entered a watching and turning stage in Q1 this year
because the adjustment of macro-control policy.
The “State New Eight Regulations” policy was issued in January 2011, requiring local
governments should set rational controlling prices for new houses according to
income growth and purchasing capacity of local residents and published the
controlling prices in Q1. Some medium and small-sized cities published the prices in
mid-March but Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other large cities
published the controlling prices 2-3 days before the deadline. Beijing confirmed that
the prices of new common houses will drop somewhat this year from last year and
other large cities’ targets are that the rise of house price will be less than the rise of
incomes of residents and the GDP growth of the cities. Compared with the above
goals, increasing land supply and reduce money supply are more practical. Premier
Wen Jiabao stressed that house supply and price are closely related to benefits of
peoples, healthy development of the economy and harmony of society. The central
government’s macro-control goal on the real estate industry is clear and the
determination is firm.
There is a great gap between the house price and purchasing capacity of most
residents. The industrial statistics show that the average daily trade volume of
19
commercial house decreased to 133 units in Beijing in March, down by 50.9% year on
year, down by 41.5% month on month. The average transaction price was 19,679
yuan/square meter, dropping for the first time in recent 19 months. The same cases
were also seen in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other big cities as well as medium and
small cities. The rigid owner-occupied demand has replaced investment and
speculating demand. At present, the real estate industry is returning to the irrational
stage.
The financing channel for real estate developer has become narrowing along with the
deepened macro-control measure and tightened credit line. If the funds of the
developments continue to decrease, house prices will experience downward trend in
the rest of this year.
But we do not worry more about demand for aluminum from the building and
construction industry. The government has launched the project of building more
low-income houses this year. If the project advanced on schedule, the loss of demand
for aluminum from commercial houses will be offset by the low-income houses. So,
we should watch closely whether the local governments have enough funds to lands
to build the low-income houses.
Chart 13: Monthly Chinese primary aluminum consumption and growth rate in
2009-2011
The aluminum consumption of domestic automobile industry reached a periodic peak
in Q4 2010. But the limiting purchase policy in Beijing has raised worry on
development of the auto industry. China produced 1.827 million units of auto and the
sales was 1.829 million units in March 2011, respectively up 5.3% and 5.4% from last
March, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). The
output increased by 7.5% year on year to 4.896 million units in Q1 and the sales
expanded by 8.1% year on year to 4.984 million units, The auto output and sales used
20
to hit record highs in March. But this March the growth slowed down remarkably. The
major reasons are: firstly, the preferential purchase policy was removed. Secondary,
Beijing began to limited car purchase to resolve the traffic jam. Thirdly, gasoline price
keeps on ascending and large rise in auto parking fees. And the last is the Japan
earthquake.
Antaike thinks that the earthquake will affect Chinese auto industry in Q2. The
Japanese auto plants in China will adjust production plan and therefore domestic auto
production may continue to drop in April and May. The highlight of the auto industry
may be the export of vehicle. But the export quantity is not big. So, Antaike holds a
prudent attitude toward the prospect of aluminum consumption in the auto industry.
As a whole, Chinese aluminum consumption decreased somewhat in Q1 from Q4
because the key users such as the real estate and auto industries are now in
adjusting period. Besides, a number of provinces cut power supply for aluminum
fabrication enterprise, which also affects the aluminum consumption. The CNIA data
indicate that China produced 1.603 million tonnes of aluminum semis in February
2011, an increase of 45.2% from a year earlier, a decrease of 7.9% from January. The
aluminum semis output amounted to 3.343 million tonnes in the first two months, up
36.8% year on year. Antaike estimated Chinese primary aluminum consumption at
4.33 million tonnes in the first quarter this year, down 6.4% from Q4 last year, up by
6.0% from Q1 last year.
Table 5: Monthly Output of Aluminum Semis by Regions in China
February 11
March 10
28.24
1,602,883
1,540,806
1,219
-20.64
290
857
24,324
58,978
18.84
14,747
6,971
Hebei
34,161
78,208
33.83
21,809
27,489
Shanxi
18,062
47,314
54.20
15,647
9,782
Inner Mongolia
34,199
91,607
66.82
26,257
16,267
Liaoning
72,519
185,191
6.30
49,618
70,893
4,142
10,545
20.54
3,279
3,935
Heilongjiang
11,277
29,792
59.03
12,491
5,956
Shanghai
23,806
65,363
36.76
18,277
19,084
Jiangsu
137,997
366,570
12.15
103,219
134,072
Zhejiang
128,866
300,376
15.31
79,650
101,182
Anhui
14,712
33,541
33.48
7,497
19,071
Fujian
81,804
198,949
15.16
61,220
63,277
Region
(tonne)
March 11
January-March 11
1,931,694
5,005,146
Beijing
520
Tianjin
Chinese total
Jilin
% Change January-March 11/10
21
Jiangxi
23,303
63,057
17.26
19,748
23,855
Shandong
202,577
481,070
30.46
144,066
190,781
Henan
386,180
1,004,286
32.71
308,981
286,676
Hubei
40,992
101,543
74.73
26,678
30,714
Hunan
36,497
101,269
31.40
33,893
29,868
425,959
1,177,083
33.05
470,376
328,899
Guangxi
45,312
97,339
56.85
27,853
23,107
Chongqing
86,433
256,643
19.86
81,309
70,980
Sichuan
37,271
101,372
18.29
30,134
34,535
Guizhou
1,263
2,637
-10.28
415
1,736
Yunnan
23,297
66,395
41.45
21,383
14,819
Shaanxi
5,092
11,653
49.42
2,366
3,471
Gansu
7,144
18,687
4.30
5,116
6,732
Qinghai
15,864
33,521
41.68
9,178
10,600
Ningxia
4,498
11,825
145.22
4,467
2,399
Xinjiang
3,626
9,111
18.00
2,922
2,797
Guangdong
Source: CNIA
Chart 14: Annualized Rate of Chinese Aluminum Semis Output and Y-o-Y
Growth Rate
25
60
50
40
30
15
20
10
%
million metric tons
20
10
0
5
-10
0
-20
Semis Output
Growth Rate
Source: CNIA
Chart 15: Chinese Monthly Output of Alumina, Primary Aluminum and Semis(kt)
22
3,000
2,600
2,200
1,800
1,400
1,000
600
Aluminum
Alumina
Semis
Source: CNIA
Chart 16: The Climate Index of the Housing Market and the Y-o-Y Sales Growth
Source: NBS
23
Market Highlight Commentary
Annual result of the multinational aluminum companies in 2010
Recently, Chalco, Alcoa, Rio Tinto, Hydro and UC Rusal released their performance
report for 2010. Although partial companies have not completely returned to the peak
level seen in 2007 or 2008, most of the companies made a great progress and came
back to the normal development track in 2010 compared with 2009.
UC Rusal
1200
氧化铝
1134.7
电解铝
1131.7
Alcoa
氧化铝
电解铝
1800
1600
1000
1508.4
1592.2
1525.6
1426.5
1400
800
727.9
784
1200
1000
600
420
442.4
394.6
408.3
400
800
600
400
200
369.3
400.7
356.4
358.6
200
0
0
2007
2008
Rio Tinto Alcan
1000
2009
氧化铝
900.8
900
881.5
2010
电解铝
908.9
2007
氧化铝
250
200
700
600
387.7
406.2
380.8
379
2010
电解铝
228.9
209.1
174.2
197.6
175
139.6
150
500
2009
Hydro
200.7
800
400
2008
141.5
100
300
200
147.3
50
100
0
0
2007
2008
Chalco
2009
氧化铝
2010
2007
2008
2009
2010
电解铝
1200
1059
1013
1006
1000
881
800
600
400
280
325
344
384
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
24
In alumina production, Hydro reported a drop while other four companies achieved
growth in 2010. Alcoa produced 15.922 million tonnes of alumina in 2010, ranking first
in the world and setting a fresh record high in the company’s history and the output
was 11.6% more than that in 2009. Chalco produced 10.13 million tonnes alumina, the
second biggest, but less than the peak level it achieved in 2007. Rio Tinto produced
9.089 million tonnes alumina with a growth of 3% year on year in 2010, ranking third.
The company surpassed the UC Rusal as the No.3 alumina producer in 2009. The
output in 2010 slightly exceeded the previous record high in 2009. UC Rusal yielded
7.84 million tonnes of alumina, up 8% from 2009, but 30% less than the peak level
seen in 2007 and 2008, because its Alpart (in Jamaica), Zaporozhye (in Ukraine) and
Eurallumina (in Italy) alumina refineries were still idled and Bogoslovsk (in Russia)
and Queensland (in Australia) alumina refineries did not operate at full capacity. Hydro
produced 1.976 million tonnes of alumina in 2010, a drop of 5% from 2009.
UC Rusal made 4.083 million tonnes of primary aluminum in 2010, up 3% from 2009
but 340 kt less than 2008. Chalco produced 3.84 million tonnes primary aluminum,
hitting record high in its history, ranking second in the world. Rio Tinto’s primary
aluminum output was 3.79 million tonnes in 2010, similar to 2009 but smaller than that
in 2008. Alcoa’s primary aluminum output was 3.586 million tonnes in 2010, also
similar to 2009 but smaller than that in 2008. Hydro produced 1.415 million tonnes of
primary aluminum in 2010, up 1% from 2009 but 335 kt less than 2008.
Thanks to the global economic recovery, strong demand for aluminum and rising
aluminum prices, the performances of the multinational aluminum companies were
largely enhanced in 2010. Chalco, Alcoa, Rio Tinto Alcan made up loss and obtained
profits while UC Rusal and Hydro got more profits in 2010 compared with thin profits in
2009.
Chalco obtained sale revenues of 120.995 billion yuan in 2010, soaring by 72.19%
from 2009, and got 778 million yuan of net profits, versus to a big loss of 4.619 billion
yuan in 2009.
Alcoa realized sale revenues of USD21.0 billion in 2010, rising by 14% from 2009,
and got USD392 million of net profits, versus to a loss of USD109 million in 2009.
Rio Tinto realized sale revenues of USD60.323 billion in 2010, rising by 37% from
2009, and got USD14.3 bllion of net profits, sharply up by 194% from 2009. Of which,
its aluminum operation Rio Tinto Alcan obtained sale revenues of USD15.206 billion in
2010, rising by 26% from 2009, and got USD773 million of net profits, versus to a loss
of USD560 million in 2009.
UC Rusal obtained sale revenues of USD10.979 billion in 2010, rising by 34.5% from
2009, and got USD2.867 billion of net profits, increasing by 250% from USD821
million in 2009.
Hydro’s operations including primary aluminum, secondary aluminum, aluminum
fabrication and energy obtained sale revenues of NOK75.754 billion in 2010, rising by
12% from 2009, and got NOK2.118 billion of net profits, up from NOK416 million in
25
2009.
氧化铝产量/万吨
电解铝产量/万吨
美铝 (Alcoa)
俄铝联合（UC
Rusal）
1592
中国铝业 (Chalco)
中国铝业
(Chalco)
384
力拓加铝（Rio
Tinto Alcan）
379
1013
力拓加铝（Rio
Tinto Alcan）
909
俄铝联合（UC
Rusal）
美铝 (Alcoa)
784
淡水河谷（CVRD）
500
359
海德鲁 (Hydro)
581
0
408
1000
1500
2000
142
0
100
200
300
400
500
Data
Table 6: Capacity and Output of Primary Aluminum in China by Region
Production Capacity (ktpy)
2008
2009
Production (kt)
2010
2008
2009
2010
2010Henan
4,405
4,696
4,573
3,243
3,150
3,663
Shandong
2,730
3,710
3,730
1,608
1,521
1,721
Shanxi
1,246
1,269
1,169
981
758
909
Inner Mongolia
1,570
1,975
2,400
1,225
1,297
1,598
930
1,762
1,832
996
891
1,607
Gansu
1,029
1,050
1,141
949
949
1,046
Guizhou
Qinghai
1,126
1,133
1,211
581
803
888
Ningxia
886
886
1,200
604
656
860
Yunnan
647
952
955
548
637
828
Sichuan
555
730
937
458
402
656
Hubei
425
425
405
409
282
397
Guangxi
871
860
996
498
535
687
Shaanxi
308
308
308
283
279
270
Hunan
360
363
330
289
167
294
Liaoning
230
230
200
107
76
206
Chongqing
223
229
112
104
104
131
Jiangsu
110
110
110
100
107
108
Zhejiang
140
150
150
65
101
150
Fujian
73
73
150
75
75
106
Xinjiang
80
80
482
54
54
66
Heilongjiang
11
6
0
0
5
3
102
102
0
0
0
0
Jilin
60
60
0
0
0
0
Jiangxi
13
12
0
0
0
0
18,130
21,171
22,513
13,177
12,846
16,194
Hebei
Chinese Total
Source: CNIA, Antaike
26
Table 7: Chinese Alumina Production on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Year to the Quarter
Quarterly Quantity
Quantity
Change, Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
1,843
1,843
13.7
Q2.2005
2,080
3,924
17.9
Q3.2005
2,087
6,010
18.9
Q4.2005
2,500
8,511
24.9
Q1.2006
2,768
2,768
50.2
Q2.2006
3,159
5,927
51.0
Q3.2006
3,510
9,437
57.0
Q4.2006
4,263
13,700
61.0
Q1.2007
4,384
4,384
58.4
Q2.2007
5,040
9,424
59.0
Q3.2007
5,047
14,472
53.4
Q4.2007
4,985
19,457
42.0
Q1.2008
5,262
5,262
20.0
Q2.2008
5,867
11,129
18.1
Q3.2008
6,285
17,414
20.3
Q4.2008
5,370
22,784
17.1
Q1 2009
4,910
4,910
-6.7
Q2 2009
5,700
10,610
-4.7
Q3 2009
6,142
16,752
-3.8
Q4 2009
7,040
23,792
4.4
Q1 2010
7,377
7,377
50.2
Q2 2010
7,337
14,714
38.7
Q3 2010
7,180
21,894
30.7
Q4 2010
7,061
28,955
21.7
Source: CNIA
Table 8: Chinese Primary Aluminum Production on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
1,764
1,764
13.6
Q2.2005
1,931
3,695
16.6
Q3.2005
2,052
5,747
18.0
Q4.2005
2,059
7,806
17.0
Q1.2006
2,028
2,028
15.0
Q2.2006
2,276
4,304
16.5
Q3.2006
2,423
6,727
17.1
Q4.2006
2,622
9,349
19.8
Q1.2007
2,842
2,842
40.1
Q2.2007
3,022
5,865
36.2
Q3.2007
3,316
9,181
36.5
27
Q4.2007
3,378
12,559
34.3
Q1.2008
3,148
3,148
10.7
Q2.2008
3,472
6,620
12.9
Q3.2008
3,520
10,140
10.5
Q4.2008
3,036
13,177
4.9
Q1 2009
2,652
2,652
-15.8
Q2 2009
2,921
5,573
-15.8
Q3 2009
3,493
9,066
-10.6
Q4 2009
3,780
12,846
-2.5
Q1 2010
4,053
4,053
52.8
Q2 2010
4,268
8,321
49.3
Q3 2010
4,129
12,449
37.3
Q4 2010
3,745
16,194
26.1
Source: CNIA
Table 9: Import of Bauxite into China on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
340
340
222.0
Q2.2005
343
683
66.7
Q3.2005
623
1,306
84.6
Q4.2005
862
2,168
146.0
Q1.2006
1,116
1,116
228.2
Q2.2006
2,302
3,418
400.4
Q3.2006
3,195
6,613
406.4
Q4.2006
3,074
9,687
346.8
Q1.2007
4,445
4,445
298.3
Q2.2007
5,612
10,057
194.2
Q3.2007
7,798
17,855
170.0
Q4.2007
5,409
23,264
140.2
Q1.2008
6,768
6,768
52.3
Q2.2008
6,681
13,449
33.7
Q3.2008
7,988
21,433
20.1
Q4.2008
4,357
25,790
10.9
Q1 2009
3,079
3,079
-54.5
Q2 2009
4,077
7,156
-46.8
Q3 2009
6,183
13,339
-37.8
Q4 2009
6,350
19,691
-23.7
Q1 2010
6,285
6,285
104.1
Q2 2010
7,767
14,052
96.4
Q3 2010
8,563
22,614
69.5
Q4 2010
7,455
30,070
52.7
28
Source: The General Administration of Customs of P. R. China
Table 10: Import of Alumina into China on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
1,743
1,743
45.3
Q2.2005
1,962
3,705
30.1
Q3.2005
1,637
5,342
20.3
Q4.2005
1,674
7,016
19.4
Q1.2006
1,703
1,703
-2.3
Q2.2006
1,630
3,333
-10.0
Q3.2006
1,929
5,262
-1.5
Q4.2006
1,649
6,911
-1.5
Q1.2007
1,466
1,466
-13.9
Q2.2007
1,191
2,657
-20.3
Q3.2007
1,293
3,950
-24.9
Q4.2007
1,174
5,124
-25.9
Q1.2008
1,156
1,156
-21.1
Q2.2008
1,236
2,392
-10.0
Q3.2008
1,123
3,515
-11.0
Q4.2008
1,071
4,586
-10.5
Q1 2009
1,026
1,026
-11.2
Q2 2009
1,653
2,679
12.0
Q3 2009
1,420
4,099
16.7
Q4 2009
1,041
5,140
12.1
Q1 2010
1,592
1,592
55.2
Q2 2010
758
2,350
-12.3
Q3 2010
830
3,180
-22.4
Q4 2010
1,132
4,312
-16.1
Source: The General Administration of Customs of P. R. China
Table 11: Chinese Import and Export of Primary Al on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Import
Export
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
90
90
-44.2
337
337
34.9
Q2.2005
113
203
-45.7
371
708
41.4
Q3.2005
114
317
-42.0
210
918
5.1
Q4.2005
111
428
-38.7
221
1,139
-18.7
Q1.2006
64
64
-28.9
198
198
-41.2
Q2.2006
100
164
-19.1
226
424
-40.1
Q3.2006
87
251
-20.8
250
674
-26.6
Q4.2006
42
293
-31.6
165
839
-26.4
29
Q1.2007
48
48
-25.0
57
57
-71.2
Q2.2007
17
65
-60.4
46
103
-75.7
Q3.2007
17
82
-67.3
40
143
-78.8
Q4.2007
29
111
-62.1
18
161
-80.8
Q1.2008
33
33
-31.3
17
17
-70.2
Q2.2008
27
60
-7.7
19
36
-65.0
Q3.2008
31
91
12.7
21
57
-60.2
Q4.2008
30
122
9.2
53
110
-31.5
Q1 2009
116
116
256.3
4
4
-77.8
Q2 2009
890
1,006
1,567.5
3
7
-80.5
Q3 2009
366
1,371
1,405.3
5
12
-79.0
Q4 2009
129
1,500
1,135.9
34
46
-58.3
Q1 2010
87
87
-24.5
16
16
336.0
Q2 2010
69
156
-84.5%
92
108
1446.8
Q3 2010
21
177
-87.1
32
139
1068.3
Q4 2010
53
230
-84.6
54
193
321.5
Source: The General Administration of Customs of P. R. China
Table 12: Chinese Import and Export of Al Alloys on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Import
Export
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
49
49
-40.0
43
43
-26.3
Q2.2005
48
97
-41.7
18
61
-51.9
Q3.2005
55
152
-38.9
46
108
-46.1
Q4.2005
58
210
-37.4
75
183
-34.4
Q1.2006
50
50
1.6
91
91
111.7
Q2.2006
58
108
11.1
109
200
226.5
Q3.2006
57
165
8.7
88
288
167.7
Q4.2006
57
222
5.8
85
373
104.3
Q1.2007
42
42
-16.0
85
85
-6.6
Q2.2007
41
83
-23.1
86
171
-14.5
Q3.2007
40
123
-25.5
99
270
-6.3
Q4.2007
48
171
-23.0
115
385
3.2
Q1.2008
37
37
-11.9
134
134
57.6
Q2.2008
38
75
-9.6
262
396
131.6
Q3.2008
30
106
-13.6
233
629
132.8
Q4.2008
33
138
-18.9
102
731
90.0
Q1 2009
39
39
4.6
33
33
-75.1
Q2.2009
85
124
64.0
35
68
-82.8
Q3 2009
75
199
88.4
88
156
-75.2
Q4 2009
44
243
75.8
108
264
-63.8
30
Q1 2010
34
34
-12.8
100
100
198.5
Q2 2010
36
70
-43.8
143
243
256.2
Q3 2010
34
104
-47.8
151
393
151.8
Q4 2010
31
135
-44.5
152
545
106.0
Source: The General Administration of Customs of P. R. China
Table 13: Chinese Import and Export of Al Semis on Quarterly Basis (kt)
Import
Export
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quarterly
Year to the Quarter
Change,
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Quantity
Quantity
Y-on-Y %
Q1.2005
140
140
5.3
129
129
81.7
Q2.2005
158
298
3.8
188
317
86.5
Q3.2005
171
469
5.6
194
511
78.7
Q4.2005
177
646
8.8
194
705
73.6
Q1.2006
161
161
15.0
217
217
68.2
Q2.2006
169
330
10.7
311
528
66.6
Q3.2006
181
511
9.0
340
868
69.9
Q4.2006
175
686
6.2
373
1,241
76.0
Q1.2007
164
164
1.9
409
409
88.5
Q2.2007
177
341
3.3
614
1,023
93.8
Q3.2007
176
517
1.2
417
1,440
65.9
Q4.2007
173
690
0.6
416
1,856
49.6
Q1.2008
165
165
0.6
453
453
10.8
Q2.2008
166
331
-2.9
504
957
-6.5
Q3.2008
160
491
12.8
536
1,492
4.3
Q4.2008
126
617
-10.4
388
1,880
2.1
Q1 2009
109
109
-34.0
229
229
-49.2
Q1 2009
151
259
-22.0
304
533
-44.8
Q3 2009
167
426
-13.5
414
947
-37.2
Q4 2009
144
570
-7.9
437
1,383
-27.1
Q1 2010
135
135
24.5
469
469
105.1
Q2 2010
158
293
13.1
552
1,021
91.6
Q3 2010
150
443
4.0
569
1,590
68.0
Q4 2010
146
589
1.6
555
2,145
55.0
Source: The General Administration of Customs of P. R. China
31
This issue was dispatched on May 9, 2011
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