1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. nuclear power
4. nuclear accident

Final – 25.01.02
The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl
Nuclear Accident
A Strategy for Recovery
A Report Commissioned by UNDP and UNICEF
with the support of
UN-OCHA and WHO
25 January 2002
Final: 25.01.02
Preface
0.01
This Report contains the findings of a study commissioned by agencies of the
United Nations to obtain up-to-date and credible information on the current
conditions in which people affected by the Chernobyl accident are living fifteen
years after the explosion, and to make recommendations as to how their needs can
best be addressed in the light of this information.
0.02
The Report is addressed in the first instance to the UN and its funds, programmes
and specialised agencies and to the international donor community. The need
to tackle the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident has spurred the
development of wide-ranging international co-operation in science, humanitarian
assistance and technology. The primary role has, rightly, always been taken by
the Governments of the countries directly concerned, initially the Soviet Union
and, after 1991, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. These countries have made an
enormous commitment in addressing the consequences of the accident, the scale
of which has never been fully appreciated by the outside world. The Report is
also addressed to the three concerned Governments for their consideration in
potential policies and actions related to the Chernobyl issue. A central role has
been played by the voluntary movement and by scientists, health workers and
other specialists. The Report addresses these interests too.
0.03
The study was conducted by a multidisciplinary international team in July and
August 2001 on behalf of UNDP and UNICEF, with the support of the UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and WHO. The
assessment in the Report is based on rigorous analysis of evidence drawn from a
wide range of interviews and observations conducted in the affected areas. It
draws on discussions with senior officials in the three capitals and in the regions;
on research papers commissioned from leading national experts; on a review of
current reports, including the National Chernobyl Programmes of Belarus, the
Russian Federation and Ukraine; and on scientific papers, legal documents and
other publications. The Mission spent thirty-one days in the field, with
approximately ten days in each country.
0.04
The Mission Team consisted of six specialists from three disciplines: ecology,
health and economics. Three members of the team were recruited internationally,
while the other three were national experts, recruited one from each of the three
countries directly concerned (Annex 2). The Mission was supervised by a multiagency Steering Committee which included the UNDP Resident Representatives
for the three countries, the UNICEF Representative for the Russian Federation,
Ukraine and Belarus, and representatives of UN-OCHA and WHO. The Mission
is confident that it was able to carry out its enquiries in all three countries in an
independent manner and without undue influence. It thanks all of the many
individuals who assisted it in its work. The Mission commends the Report and
the recommendations that it contains to the international community, to the three
governments, and to the other parties concerned.
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Final: 25.01.02
Table of Contents
Page
Preface
ii
Contents
iii
Part I: Executive Report
Section 1: Summary of findings
Recommendations
Project concepts
1
15
22
Part II: Mission Findings
Section 2: Background: the accident and the events that followed
Section 3: Environmental consequences
Section 4: Health
Section 5: Economic development and household incomes
27
35
47
63
Annexes
References
The Mission Team
74
75
iii
Final – 25.01.02
Part I:
Executive Report
Introduction
1.01
This Report contains the findings of a study conducted into the human
consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident fifteen years after the explosion.
The Mission explored the health, socio-economic and environmental effects of the
accident and the events that followed. The Report contains an analysis of the
current situation and the prospects for the future, focusing on aspects that are
significant for the well-being of the people and communities directly affected.
1.02
The affected population - those exposed to radioactive fallout, remaining in the
affected areas, or forced to relocate - continue to face disproportionate suffering in
terms of health, social conditions, and economic opportunity. Hundreds of
thousands of people have been evacuated from the most severely affected areas
(see Section 2). Many have found it difficult to adapt and continue to face serious
psychological, economic and social problems. The process of evacuation has now
virtually ceased and only a small number of people continue to live in the most
polluted areas. However, some tens of thousands remain in areas polluted to a
level of between 15 and 40 curies per square kilometre.
1.03
The accident has also had a continuing impact on the opportunities and well-being
of a much wider circle of the inhabitants of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, through
the negative image that it has created for large areas of these countries. It has
imposed a heavy burden on the national budgets through the cost of clean-up,
compensation and recovery. Ukraine, in addition, has had to carry much of the
cost of closing and making safe the Chernobyl complex as well as the opportunity
cost of the lost electrical output from the reactors concerned. These commitments
have diverted resources away from other priorities, such as health, education and
investment, at a time of profound economic crisis.
1.04
Fifteen years after the accident, and with the governments of the three most
directly affected countries actively engaged, the question may reasonably be
asked, why should the international community continue to fund measures to
address the complicated cluster of human problems that were triggered by the
explosion of 26 April 1986? Three strong reasons can be given in answer to this
question. The first reason is that the rest of the world has an important practical
interest in remaining involved with the issue of Chernobyl. This interest not only
concerns the safety of the complex itself but also the knowledge that can be
gained about the long-term effects of the radioactive fallout on health and about
the difficult issues of disaster management involved in the post-accident response.
1.05
This consideration is not simply theoretical. Today there are over 400 nuclear
reactors in operation around the world. Based on the experience of more than
10,000 years of operation, experts consider that the probability of a major
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Final: 25.01.02
accident with significant contamination outside plant boundaries is very small.
Future designs will doubtless be safer, but as for all technologies, even the best
designs can never assure absolute safety from accident or attack.
1.06
But scientific interest in the lessons of Chernobyl cannot be satisfied in isolation
from the question of the well-being of those whose lives have been altered for the
worse by Chernobyl. In the spirit of the Helsinki Declaration on Biomedical
Research on Human Subjects, the international community must accept a share in
the responsibility for the well-being of those concerned if it is to expect to be able
to learn from their predicament. Moreover, if active steps are not taken to resolve
the human problems relating to the accident, the fate of the communities blighted
by Chernobyl will continue to haunt discussions on energy generation for decades
to come. In the context of global warming, governments around the world and the
international energy industry share an interest in resolving these problems and
promoting a debate on the future of nuclear power based not on emotion but on
arguments and facts.
1.07
The second reason is that the international community has been intimately
involved in the evolution of the issue of Chernobyl and its consequences. With
the national authorities and the scientific community, it has helped to shape the
experiences of many whose lives have been touched by the accident. It must not
simply turn its back with the job half done. The moral case is obvious. The wellbeing of very large numbers of human beings, including children, is involved.
Their prospects have been profoundly influenced by decisions over which they
have had no say. These decisions have involved governments, but also, to a
greater or lesser extent, the outside world.
1.08
The third reason why the international community must continue to cooperate in
resolving the human problems linked to Chernobyl is more positive. It lies in the
potential that such cooperation has to serve as a model for the future. In all the
disruption and distress, the issue has become the focus for a unique experiment in
international collaboration involving not just governments and international
organisations, but doctors and scientists and ordinary people engaged in
partnership activities designed to meet the needs of children and adults affected
by Chernobyl. Many of the initiatives that are being developed have potential
applications in other parts of the world where rural communities have been
subjected to destructive shocks, whether technological in origin or resulting from
war, civil disturbance, or economic change.
1.09
The Report argues that the environmental effects of Chernobyl cannot be
considered in isolation from their socio-economic and health aspects or from the
changing institutional context of the three countries concerned. It explores the
links between environmental contamination, health risks and economic
constraints. The Report finds that, while physical processes are gradually
reducing the level of radioactive contamination in the environment, the most
vulnerable groups of people in the affected areas are facing a complex and
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Final: 25.01.02
progressive downward spiral of living conditions induced by the consequences of
the accident and the events that followed.
1.10
1.11
The Report outlines a ten year strategy for tackling and reversing this downward
spiral. It makes a series of recommendations designed to address the human
needs resulting directly or indirectly from the accident. These aim to promote
long-term recovery through a new consensus between the main parties involved,
new partnerships and a new generation of initiatives designed to assist the
individuals and the communities concerned to take their future in their own hands.
On the basis of the assessment undertaken, the Mission identified the following
five key principles which underlie the approach it recommends to tackling the
consequences of the accident:
*
Chernobyl related needs should be addressed in the framework of a
holistic view of the needs of the individuals and communities concerned
and, increasingly, of the needs of society as a whole;
*
the aim must be to help individuals to take control of their own lives and
communities to take control of their own futures;
*
efficient use of resources means focusing on the most affected people and
communities, and on children. The response must be commensurate to the
scale of the needs;
*
the new approach should seek changes that are sustainable and long-term,
and based on a developmental approach;
*
the international effort can only be effective if it supports, amplifies and
acts as a lever for change in the far larger efforts made by local and
national government agencies and the voluntary sector in the three
countries.
Based on these principles and the results of the assessment, the Report proposes a
new medium term strategy as a framework for relaunching the international
community’s commitment to help address the human needs resulting from the
accident. A small but important minority, those caught in the downward spiral,
need substantial material assistance to rebuild their lives. This population
probably numbers between one and two hundred thousand individuals. It includes
those who continue to live in severely contaminated areas and who are unable to
support themselves adequately, unemployed resettlers and those whose health is
most directly threatened, including the victims of thyroid cancer. These people
are right at the core of the cluster of problems created by Chernobyl. Resources
should be focused on resolving their needs and on helping them to take control of
their destinies in the circumstances that have resulted from the accident.
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Final: 25.01.02
1.12
A second group consists of those whose lives have been directly and significantly
affected by the consequences of the accident but who are already in a position to
support themselves. This group, numbering some hundreds of thousands of
individuals, includes resettlers who have found employment and many of the
former clean up workers. The priority here should be to help these people to
normalise their lives as quickly and as far as is possible. Over a period of time,
they need to be reintegrated into society as a whole, so that their needs are
increasingly addressed through mainstream provision and according to the same
criteria as apply to other sections of society.
1.13
A third group consists of a much larger number of people, totalling several million
in the three countries, whose lives have been influenced by the accident primarily
in that they have been labelled as, or perceive themselves as, actual or potential
victims of Chernobyl. Here the main need is for full, truthful and accurate
information on the effects of the accident based on dependable and internationally
recognised research, coupled with access to good quality mainstream provision in
health care and social services; and to employment.
1.14
The approach of defining the most serious problems and addressing them with
special measures, while pursuing an overall policy of promoting a return to
normality, should apply to the affected territories as well as to the affected
individuals and communities. Where in the light of the best scientific knowledge
it is reasonably possible, measures should be adopted to integrate less severely
affected areas back into productive use as soon as is practicable. This
combination of measures – focusing resources on those most in need, while
actively promoting integration with mainstream provision wherever possible – is
not a second best. Within the available budgets it is really the only alternative to
the progressive breakdown of the recovery effort, continuing haemorrhaging of
scarce resources and continuing distress for the people at the centre of the
problem. By fostering a process of healing, these measures will help to address
the widespread psychosocial effects of the accident. They will protect the most
vulnerable as the Chernobyl spend inevitably declines and will enable the
authorities to promote an orderly process of recovery over the coming years.
1.15
This new strategy marks a clear break from the policies of the past fifteen years; it
challenges widely held assumptions in the countries concerned and in the
international community. Strong barriers to change exist in the fears and the
patterns of behaviour of the affected population and the wider community, and
powerful vested interests are involved. At first sight, there may seem little chance
of building the consensus needed to make a success of the new approach. In
practice, however, it was clear to the Mission that many of those most involved in
addressing the consequences of the accident are aware that in future it will not be
possible simply to carry on as before. A log-jam has developed of expectations
and assumptions that no longer reflect the current realities. Breaking this log-jam
is the key to resolving the continuing problems that have followed from the
Chernobyl accident.
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Final: 25.01.02
Towards a Sustainable Environment
1.16
The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident contaminated large territories
in all three countries affecting life in rural communities for decades to come (see
Section 3). Agriculture and forestry are forbidden in wide areas. Poverty forces
many people to eat contaminated berries, mushrooms, game and fish, to feed
contaminated hay to their cattle and to burn radioactively contaminated firewood
in their stoves. Many of those living in the affected areas are ignorant of the risks
that they face, or have adopted an apathetic and fatalistic attitude.
1.17
Radioactive contamination resulting from the Chernobyl explosion and fire poses
health risks to the rural population and constrains economic development. Serious
concerns primarily relate to the so-called “highly contaminated territories” where
contamination is between 15 and 40 curies per square kilometre. At present
between 150 and 200 thousand people permanently reside in these areas.
1.18
Substantial doses of radiation were received by the general public and clean-up
workers in the period immediately following the accident. The associated risks
involved have already been incurred and cannot be influenced by environmental
management measures. The main problem today relates to internal irradiation
resulting from the consumption of contaminated foodstuffs, notably milk, meat
and forest products such as game, berries and mushrooms. This threat can be
controlled to a significant extent by the use of special fertilisers and fodder
supplements and by changes in diet. However, those most at risk are the least
able to protect themselves. The overall level of contamination is falling gradually
as a result of natural radioactive decay. Certain high-risk groups, however, face
stable, or even increased, exposure as a result of the decline in the use of
protective soil treatments and changes in the structure of agriculture following the
break up of the Soviet Union.
Framework for action
1.19
The logic of these findings is that resources should be concentrated on those most
at risk – country people who grow and gather their own food – and on efforts to
revive the economies of the affected areas in ways which are compatible with the
continuing radiation hazard (Project 5). Environmental policy development,
planning, implementation and management needs to be improved at the
national and local levels. This should include building on the lessons of the
post-Chernobyl response in terms of disaster management and strengthening
capacity to cope with a range of environmental hazards (Project 6). The concept
of strategic environmental planning and transboundary co-operation should be
promoted in the affected regions, with the participation of the communities
concerned (Project 4). This should involve increased training for regional
planning and environmental specialists and should reflect the reality that the
impact of Chernobyl transcends the frontiers of the affected countries.
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Final: 25.01.02
1.20
Innovative ways need to be developed to increase knowledge about how to live
safely in environments which have suffered radioactive contamination. Important
pilot studies have been carried out, often with international assistance. The
lessons of these projects need now to be disseminated much more widely. Efforts
should be made to strengthen the local capacity for sustainable development by
establishing a small grant facility for voluntary organisations and local
government interested in promoting sustainable development initiatives (Project
6). Continued efforts are also needed to develop and promote agricultural
products that can be produced safely where radionuclides are present in the soil.
1.21
Continuing internationally accredited research is needed into the effects of
radioactive contamination on the environment and on strategies for addressing
problems such as the dispersal of radionuclides in water and into the atmosphere
and the implications that this has for groups, such as forestry workers and hunters
and their families, who are at risk because of their particular patterns of life.
Efforts should be made to encourage the international scientific community to
make fuller use of the unique natural laboratory constituted by the exclusion zone
surrounding the Chernobyl Power Plant, in conjunction with the existing
management and research centres which are responsible for monitoring and
managing the zone (Project 7).
1.22
One way these research needs could be met would be through the creation of an
International Chernobyl Foundation (ICF) charged with promoting high quality
research on the environmental and health effects of the accident (Project 3).
Consideration should be given to using the existing mechanism of the UN
Chernobyl Trust Fund. The Foundation would act as a channel for long-term
funding for research into the effects of the Chernobyl accident and into the best
means to ensure the well being of the affected communities. It would need to be
administered by an independent multinational body and would draw its resources
from a variety of sources including parties standing to gain from knowledge
generated by impartial research into the effects of the accident.
1.23
Consideration should be given to creating an International Chernobyl Research
Board (ICRB) under the umbrella of the ICF. To keep administrative costs to a
minimum, the Board could be established in the framework of an existing
international institution such as the UN University. The Board would be made up
of a panel of independent experts in health and environmental science. On
presentation of a proposal relating directly or indirectly to the effects of the
accident, the Board would convene an expert panel to investigate and report
publicly on the issue. It would make recommendations as to priorities for
research either generally or to the ICF, which would be empowered to support
appropriate projects. A further role for ICRB would be to make available
authoritative information on the effects of radiation on health and the environment
directly to the public.
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Final: 25.01.02
1.24
Efforts are needed to identify sustainable ways to make use of the most affected
areas that reflect the radiation hazard, but also maximise the economic potential
for the benefit of the community. Consideration should be given to organising a
series of local reviews in each of the most severely affected districts. These
would bring together members of the local community, local government
representatives and national and international specialists to map out options for
the future development of the areas concerned as radioactive contamination
progressively declines. This would enable local people to contribute to forward
planning for the affected areas. It would help to highlight the continuing dangers
in a realistic way, while at the same time establishing a positive, constructive and
forward looking attitude towards the areas concerned among those most directly
affected.
1.25
The international community should explore with the governments concerned the
possibilities for promoting specialised ecological tourism and for maximising the
contribution that these areas can make to the preservation of international
biodiversity. Little attempt had been made to exploit the reduction of human
disturbance to the ecosystems and cultural landscape in a positive way and the
current national plans for biodiversity protection and cultural preservation hardly
refer to this potential. The territories could be used to fulfill the three countries'
international obligations on the protection of biodiversity (Project 7).
Health in the affected communities
1.26
Morbidity in the affected areas continues to reflect the pattern in other parts of the
Former Soviet Union. Life expectancy, particularly of males, is substantially
lower than in Western and Southern Europe, with heart disease and trauma the
leading causes of death (see Section 4). Low household incomes, demoralisation,
poor diet and high levels of alcohol and tobacco consumption are key factors.
1.27
Very considerable uncertainty remains over the possible long-term health effects
of the accident. On the one hand, the nuclear industry acknowledges only very
limited and closely defined consequences. On the other, some politicians,
researchers and voluntary movement workers claim that the accident has had
profound and diverse impacts on the health of many millions of people. This
uncertainty is a cause of widespread distress and misallocation of resources and
needs to be addressed though rigorous and adequately funded international efforts.
1.28
No reliable evidence has emerged of an increase in leukemias, which had been
predicted to result from the accident. However, some two thousand cases of
thyroid cancer have so far been diagnosed among young people exposed to
radioactive iodine in April and May 1986. According to conservative estimates,
this figure is likely to rise to 8-10,000 over the coming years. While thyroid
cancer can be treated, all of these people will need continuing medical attention
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Final: 25.01.02
for the rest of their lives. A significant number have potentially serious
complications. It is likely that the coming decades will see an increase in other
solid cancers resulting from exposure to radiation. However, there is no
consensus over how many cases will occur.
1.29
As well as the direct effects of radiation on health, the accident led to enormous
disruption to the lives of those who were evacuated from their homes and resettled. Many of these people have found it very difficult to adapt to their new
circumstances and continue to suffer high levels of stress, in particular linked to
unemployment and a feeling that they do not have adequate control over their
lives. A significant proportion of, in particular older, re-settlers still express a
desire to return to their old homes. Those who continue to live in contaminated
areas appear to suffer lower levels of stress, but they too face high levels of
unemployment and many of them face the problem of bringing children up in a
polluted environment. Research suggests that recent years have seen a major
change in attitudes among those remaining in the affected areas, with far fewer
now wishing to leave.
Framework for action
1.30 Efforts to address the health effects of the Chernobyl accident need to be
undertaken in the context of a wider reform of health care provision in the
three countries. Such reform should be based on a rigorous examination of
the cost effectiveness of current practices and a determined effort to improve
primary care and ensure that resources are allocated on the basis of medical
need. Strong measures are needed to improve the level of care available to poor
people living in rural areas. Particular attention needs to be paid to addressing the
effects of social and environmental factors on health, including poverty, poor diet,
alcoholism, tobacco abuse and poor living conditions including inadequate basic
services such as sanitation and access to clean drinking water (Project 9).
1.31
Continuation of the present policies by the three affected States, the international
community and charitable organisations will only serve to prolong the
dependency culture that has developed over the past 15 years, and the associated
negative aspects of health and well-being. If the health interests of the affected
populations are to be addressed, the present emphasis on humanitarian aid,
delivered to passive populations, has to be replaced, gradually, by assistance in
developing economically and socially sustainable communities. Such efforts
must involve tackling the constraints imposed by radioactive contamination in a
positive and innovative way.
1.32
This is not in anyway to minimise the seriousness of the situation for health and
well-being or the role played by the exposure to ionising radiation. However, the
clear priority for health, both physical and psychological, is to improve basic
primary health care, diet and living conditions, while at the same time helping
those concerned to come to terms with living in a radioactively contaminated
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Final: 25.01.02
environment. This, and improvement in the economic status of the population, is
the key to reversing the downward spiral in health and well-being.
1.33 The health problems linked to the Chernobyl accident reflect complex interactions
between health, ecology, economics and community development. The effects of
radiation cannot be ring-fenced and treated in isolation from other aspects of the
lives of the individuals concerned (Project 9). Priority should be given to those
measures which can be most effective in extending healthy life and improving
well-being. In practice this means that a strong emphasis should be put on efforts
to improve household incomes, to strengthen primary health care and to rebuild
the structures of society at the community level. These objectives can best be
achieved through active collaboration between the communities concerned,
government agencies, local and national, the international community and the
voluntary sector (Project 8).
1.34
As far as the psychosocial dimension of health is concerned, two things are
urgently needed. First, it is vital that those affected, and the population at large,
be given clear advice on what, on the basis of the best evidence, are believed to be
the real risks associated with the kinds of exposure to radiation that resulted from
the Chernobyl accident. It is essential that this advice is honest and that areas of
doubt are fully acknowledged. Where appropriate, political leaders should be
encouraged to add their weight to the effort to encourage a more realistic and
balanced attitude to the question of radiation and health in the affected countries.
The second thing that is needed is a mechanism to provide authoritative opinions
on these issues and ensure that properly designed and impartial research is carried
out.
1.35
The history of the Chernobyl issue since the accident indicates the importance of
continuing high-level research; both to meet the needs of the affected populations
and also to address questions of importance for humanity. Major health and
environmental issues remain unresolved and, if the evidence is not to be lost
forever, it is essential that they be investigated according to internationally
recognised protocols and in a timely manner. Concern for the effects on health of
ionising radiation delivered in low doses and at low dose rates has grown over the
past 15 years. These concerns reflect the fact that there is no direct basis for
determining risks associated with exposures of the kind resulting from the
Chernobyl accident.
Further research needs to be undertaken on this issue to
supplement work already undertaken by the International Radiation Protection
Association and other bodies.
1.36
Over the past decade, progress in radiobiology and radiation epidemiology has
been considerable. This research presents important challenges to existing
concepts upon which risk estimation is based. In addition, little serious
consideration has been given by the research community to ameliorating the
psychosocial effects of accidents such as Chernobyl. The argument for a more
systematic approach to Chernobyl related research is forcefully illustrated by the
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Final: 25.01.02
unexpected appearance of early childhood thyroid cancer, the unexpected absence
of leukaemia stemming from the accident, and the persistence of the psychosocial
effect, all of which to some degree contradicted the accepted wisdom.
1.37
Specific health issues which need to be explored as a matter of priority include the
question of a possible link between breast cancer in younger women and women
who were lactating at the time of the accident, and radiation. Studies in Japan
indicate that such a relationship is possible. It is particularly important to resolve
this issue because early diagnosis through appropriate screening can be effective
in reducing mortality from breast cancer (Project 12).
1.38
The question of thyroid cancer in those who were infants or children at the time of
the accident and who lived in areas outside of the areas designated as
contaminated by caesium and strontium should be investigated as a matter of
priority. Claims have been made in Russia that meteorological conditions may
have led to fallout of radioactive iodine affecting a wider area through so-called
dry deposition. If that were the case, then the scope of the current monitoring
effort would need to be extended. Other issues that should be followed up include
the physical and psychological health of clean-up workers; an evaluation of the
distribution of caesium in various body tissues and assessment of risk of tissue
specific damage; a study of thyroid cancer in those who were adults at the time of
the accident; the development of a strategy for screening that is cost effective; and
an evaluation of the need for treatment and follow-up of young thyroid patients.
A high priority should be given to tackling the problem of iodine deficiency
through properly researched and designed iodine supplementation programmes,
and, protection against iodine deficiency for the population at large through the
universal iodisation of salt.
1.39
As far as the psychosocial dimension of health is concerned it is essential that the
affected population and the population at large be given clear advice on what are
believed to be the real risks associated with the kinds of exposure that resulted
from the Chernobyl accident (Project 13). A mechanism, such as the proposed
International Chernobyl Foundation, is needed to provide authoritative opinions
on these issues and ensure that properly designed and impartial research is carried
out where needed. Determined efforts need to be made at national and local level
to promote a balanced understanding of the health effects of radiation among the
public, many of whom at present suffer distress as a result of ill-founded fears.
Economic development and household incomes
1.40
The Chernobyl accident has had profound effects, immediate and long-term, on
the economy of the surrounding areas (see Section 5). The disruption caused by
the radioactive contamination, the plant and farm closures and the resettlement of
many of the inhabitants was amplified after 1991 by the effects of the break up of
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Final: 25.01.02
the Soviet Union. The accident has also imposed a heavy burden on the national
budgets through the cost of clean-up, compensation and recovery. A total of some
seven million people are in receipt of Chernobyl-related welfare benefits of one
kind or another. Many of these are of little financial value to the individuals
concerned, but in total make up a very substantial burden on the exchequers of the
three countries. The direct and indirect effects of the disaster on the affected
population are enormously amplified by poverty and lack of opportunities for
household income generation. Effective measures to promote economic and
social recovery and to give the individuals and communities greater control over
their own destinies must play a central role in any future response.
1.41
Poverty and unemployment blight the lives of people still living in the
contaminated areas and of those who have been evacuated. While meaningful
figures are not available for the level of employment specifically for the affected
areas, unemployment and under-employment clearly constitute a major problem.
The migration of skilled young people from the affected areas has hindered
industrial recovery and deterred investment. In rural communities, where food
production and food processing are the staple sources of income, radioactive
contamination has severely reduced the opportunities for household income
generation.
Investment in the affected areas is constrained by mistaken
perceptions of the nature and extent of the threat posed by the effects of the
accident.
Framework for action
1.42
The most important factor determining economic conditions in the affected
communities is the overall performance of the national economies of the countries
concerned. While all three countries have seen significant growth over the last
year, they continue to lag behind not only the main industrial market economies,
but also neighbouring transition countries such as Hungary, Poland and the Baltic
States. Sound finances and the creation of an open competitive market
economy and an investment-friendly business environment are preconditions
for sustained recovery in the affected areas. Experience in the former Soviet
Union and in other parts of the world, however, indicates that growth at the
national level does not automatically solve the problem of severe local economic
disadvantage.
1.43
The areas and communities blighted by the Chernobyl accident need massive
investment if they are to break out of poverty and dependency. Appropriate
national policies, therefore, need to be supplemented by a proactive approach to
stimulating economic development at the local level (see Section 4, Box 4.2).
Efforts should be made to build upon experience of the local economic
development agencies already functioning in the Gomel Region (Belarus) and
Slavutich (Ukraine) to build a network of intermediary organisations which are
sensitive to local conditions and can act as an interface with national and
international development bodies and donors (Project 14).
11
Final: 25.01.02
1.44
At the regional level, measures are needed to help integrate locally-based
businesses into the world market (Project 18) and to promote inward investment,
both national and international. The latter will involve a major change in
approach by authorities and communities, which have become used to
emphasising the problems and the special needs of their areas to the outside world
rather than the opportunities they offer. Experience in other parts of the world
shows that a concerted effort to attract inward investment can succeed even in
very unfavourable conditions. Special institutions should be established to lead
this drive as has been done in other parts of Europe, including in the CIS (Project
15). This effort will also help to break down the prejudices associated with the
affected areas as far as food and other sensitive products are concerned.
1.45
Industrial companies can play an important role in the process of recovery by
creating new opportunities for job seekers from rural communities. By processing
agricultural produce bought from affected areas, they generate income for
agricultural enterprises and rural families. Consideration should also be given to
supporting good quality, locally appropriate, training (Project 20) and providing
tax incentives or grants to businesses setting up in the less contaminated areas of
the most severely affected districts as a complement to the existing special zones.
1.46
While promoting inward investment is an efficient way of creating employment
and benefits the whole community, it will not be sufficient to solve the most
serious social problems caused by the Chernobyl accident. It needs to be
complemented by efforts to promote the development of indigenous businesses
and by encouraging self-employment in rural communities to enable households
to become self-sufficient. Active measures are needed to encourage the
establishment and growth of small and medium sized enterprises in the affected
areas and in the adjacent towns and cities using the whole range of business
support techniques which have been tried and tested in other parts of the world.
1.47
In the meanwhile, the present Chernobyl budgets play a key role in supporting
living standards and demand in the affected communities. It is important that this
spend be maintained in the short run. However, it is equally important that it be
redirected as quickly as possible towards measures to promote self-sufficiency,
including training and support for income generating activity. This is important
for the psychological welfare of the individuals concerned, and it is also the only
way to secure their economic well-being on a sustainable basis (Project 16).
1.48
At the local level, a major drive is needed to support the trend towards household
self-sufficiency. Country people in the affected areas already have many of the
skills needed to support themselves. The lives of those who are left out of this
process can only continue to deteriorate. Local self-help initiatives to address the
need for small-scale finance and help with access to markets are needed (Project
19). Helping to establish such structures should be a priority for international
assistance. Promising pilot projects have been carried out in these areas in recent
years. These now need to be scaled up to a point where they can begin to have a
12
Final: 25.01.02
meaningful impact. The Mission found that the inhabitants of the affected
districts were very interested in the idea of developing new locally appropriate
forms of small-scale enterprise.
This interest should be harnessed through
developing local recovery strategies for the most severely affected districts.
1.49
Initiatives to tackle rural poverty and unemployment need to be appropriate to
local conditions, which include an almost complete absence of experience of
entrepreneurship and a very strong tradition of collectivism. They should
concentrate on encouraging local clusters of particular types of small scale
business so that the families involved can learn from each other and share some of
the costs, for example in fields such as marketing, purchasing and transport
(Project 17). Efforts should be made to explore the possibilities for encouraging
other forms of business organisation which reflect the experience of country
people. One possible format for this is credit unions, which are already being
encouraged in some areas with support from UNDP and other donors (Project 19).
The possible role of small scale worker and consumer cooperatives in contributing
to economic development in the affected areas should also be explored.
1.50
To support this process, it is crucial that economic development skills and
resources are mobilised at the regional and local levels. The local economic
development agencies already functioning in the area provide an example of how
this can be done. International Voluntary Partnerships (IVPs) such as community
and town twinnings can play a useful part in the development of grass roots
initiatives (Section 4, Box 4.5). As they have much lower costs than conventional
technical assistance projects and are not tied to short-term budget cycles they can
address the issue of sustainability in a meaningful way. The international
community should help to multiply the benefits of IVP activity through small
grants, and initiatives to encourage training and networking (Project 2).
1.51
Re-integrating areas formerly condemned as a result of pollution needs to be
examined in the context of economic development. Progressively, natural
processes are reducing the extent of territory that is blighted. The issue of how to
deal with territories as restrictions are lifted requires careful consideration. In
strictly economic terms, the merits of reversing these measures in the near future
may be questioned. Proposals for developing timber resources on contaminated
territories were submitted to the Mission, however, the opinion of forestry experts
was that from a commercial point of view, resources would be better spent on
timber extraction in cleaner areas.
1.52
On the other hand, bringing condemned land back into economic use would be a
powerful marker of the process of recovery for potential investors and in terms of
the psychology of the communities concerned. The issue needs to be carefully
considered by these communities, working with appropriate specialists and local
and national government agencies. Wherever possible, the assumption should be
that local people should have the choice of where to live and work, provided the
interests of vulnerable individuals, including children, can be properly protected.
13
Final: 25.01.02
1.53
Alongside measures to support employment generation at the village level,
vigorous efforts are needed to promote the rebuilding of community structures to
replace those which were lost in the process of evacuation and as a result of the
break up of the Soviet Union. In the Soviet period small towns and rural
communities were served by a range of institutions and organisations, including
collective farms, local “houses of culture” and various Communist Party inspired
social organisations such as the young pioneers. In general, these institutions
have disappeared and have not been replaced by adequate alternatives.
1.54
The primary requirement for rebuilding the communities affected by the accident
is the promotion of economic development and better household incomes.
However, these steps need to be supplemented by initiatives specifically designed
to strengthen social interactions and promote community leadership in towns and
villages (Project 10). A variety of different models exist including the existing
psychosocial centres and the various NGO and IVP based initiatives.
Strengthening primary health care and the organisation of cultural activities and
events in the affected areas will also contribute to community development.
Conclusions
1.55
Enormous efforts have been made by the governments of the three countries
concerned to address the effects of the Chernobyl accident. These efforts have
been supplemented to a significant degree by assistance from international
sources, public and voluntary.
However, support from public international
sources for programmes designed to address the needs of those directly affected
by the accident has declined in recent years. Following the accident, the response
was reactive in nature and focused on resettlement, urgent humanitarian assistance
and monitoring of the effects of radiation on health. There is a widespread
recognition that this approach is no longer adequate.
1.56
Fifteen years after the accident, governments in all three countries are reviewing
their policies in response not only to economic constraints, but also to new
priorities and a new perception of the kinds of measures that are needed to address
the long-term consequences of the accident. The international community also
needs to adopt a new approach to the needs of those affected. A concerted
campaign is needed to remind the World of the on-going suffering of those
affected by the disaster and of the continuing need for international support for
efforts to promote recovery.
1.57
The Chernobyl complex is now closed, the process of resettlement almost
complete, but the demands made by the communities involved have scarcely
diminished. Indeed, for many of those in the villages and settlements directly
affected by the accident, the needs are as acute as ever. In this perspective, the
Report proposes a framework for the national and international response based on
three successive phases. The first phase, covering the fifteen years following the
accident from 1986 to 2001, could be described as the Emergency Phase. This
14
Final: 25.01.02
phase has been characterised by urgent measures to make the reactor safe, to
resettle the population in immediate danger, to deliver humanitarian assistance to
those in urgent need and to explore the best means to address longer-term issues
through pilot projects and research.
1.58 The Report proposes a new approach to be embodied in a second, ten-year,
Recovery Phase of initiatives. The new approach should focus on enabling the
individuals and communities affected by the disaster to enter fully into society by
taking control of their own lives and acquiring the means for self-sufficiency
through economic and human development. Chernobyl related assistance, which
was ring-fenced in the first phase, should increasingly be measured against a more
holistic view of individual and community needs and, where possible, be
progressively integrated into mainstream provision. It is suggested that at the end
of this ten-year period, a further review of the issues should be carried out to
define on-going Chernobyl related needs in areas such as health, ecology and
research. Those exceptional needs that cannot be adequately addressed through
mainstream provision should be carefully defined and be the subject of agreement
between the governments concerned and the international community with regard
to measures appropriate for a third, long-term Management Phase.
1.59
In order to ensure that the new campaign of initiatives is built on an agreed
approach, workshops should be organised to launch the coming phase and to help
the main parties to define the nature of their involvement over the coming ten
years (Project 1). As far as is practicably possible, efforts should be made to
promote consensus around a set of basic guiding principles. The international
community should renew its commitment to helping to address the issues raised
by Chernobyl through a medium term programme of development assistance and
research.
1.60
Under this proposal, the governments of the countries concerned would reshape
their post-Chernobyl programmes. While as far as possible maintaining their
overall spend, they would concentrate special funding on those most in need, and
progressively switch the majority of the resources involved from welfare
assistance to mainstream provision, and to sustainable economic and social
development. The communities concerned and the voluntary sector would be
encouraged to enter into partnerships with donors to expand their role, while
progressively directing their efforts towards measures designed to promote longterm sustainable development. The Recommendations and Project Concepts that
follow translate these overarching principles into specific practical initiatives.
Recommendations
A new approach
1
The international community should adopt a new developmental approach to
tackling the problems caused by the Chernobyl accident and the events that
15
Final: 25.01.02
followed. As far as is compatible with the continuing threat from radioactive
pollution and the continuing need for appropriate humanitarian assistance, this
approach should work towards normalising the situation of the individuals and
communities concerned in the medium and long-term.
2
Rather than focusing narrowly on the issue of radioactivity, the approach should
be holistic, integrating health, ecological and economic measures to address the
needs of those concerned in the round. The approach should aim, as far as
possible, to give individuals and communities control over their own futures. A
high priority should be given to addressing the needs of children and young
people in the affected communities.
3
The new approach should recognise that it is vitally important that the whole
world learns the lessons of Chernobyl. The quest for understanding should be
pursued in a manner that is of benefit not only to humanity as a whole, but also to
those directly affected by Chernobyl and the events that followed. The
international community must accept a share in the responsibility for the future
well-being of those whose lives have been blighted by the accident. This shared
responsibility should be expressed through a new generation of proactive
initiatives to address the current and future needs of those affected by the
Chernobyl accident.
Institutional, policy and human resources framework
4
In a world of conflicting priorities, such a commitment cannot be open-ended. It
is proposed that the international community adopt a set of priorities for a
programme of assistance over the next ten years and that after that a further
study be undertaken to review progress towards normalising life in the affected
communities.
5
It is proposed that the UN calls a series of three national workshops involving
governments and the donor community, one in each of the affected countries, to
seek consensus on the new programme as soon as it practically can. The
purpose of the workshops should be to mobilise all of the relevant parties around
the objectives outlined in this report.
6
The international community, the governments of the countries concerned and the
voluntary sector should engage in an open-minded dialogue over the focus and
cost effectiveness of the main policies. So far as is practicable, the workshops
should seek to promote consensus on the broad approach to be pursued in the
forthcoming period. An important aim should be to discuss how the elements of
the proposed new approach would fit in with the existing framework of strategy
and national activities as set out in the respective National Programmes.
Priorities should be agreed as a basis for pulling the various project concepts
together into thematic action programmes.
16
Final: 25.01.02
7
It is proposed that a target of between 5% and 10% of the cost of the rebuilding of
the Chernobyl Shelter, be set for this appeal. Consideration should be given to
developing a programme implementation capacity (possibly based in the UNDP
representative offices in the three countries).
8
Resources should be concentrated on services which have the greatest effect in
improving life expectancy and well-being. In practice this means concentrating
on primary health care, health education and economic development in the
affected communities. A high priority should be given to improving access to
clean water and other local services in rural communities, not only to address the
specific problem of radioactive contamination, but also to improve the overall
condition of life for those who continue to live in the affected areas.
9
To promote a proper understanding of the environmental and health effects of
Chernobyl a long-term, independent, properly funded, internationally
recognised programme of research is needed. To ensure that this is conducted
according to internationally recognised procedures and provide a high degree of
confidence in the quality and impartiality of findings, consideration should be
given to establishing an independent international body to initiate and oversee
research into the effects of Chernobyl, as was done in the case of Hiroshima.
10
It is proposed that to meet this need an International Chernobyl Foundation
(ICF) be established. Consideration should be given to using the existing
mechanism of the UN Chernobyl Trust Fund. The constitution of the Foundation
should be designed to ensure that it is independent and seen to be independent.
The Foundation would receive funds from donors, including bodies with an
interest in the results of research into the health effects of radiation such as the
nuclear energy industry. The Foundation would channel resources into health
and ecological research relating to the effects of the Chernobyl accident.
11
Wherever possible, Chernobyl related initiatives, for example relating to
education and health, should be integrated into mainstream provision to ensure
sustainability, cost effectiveness and wide dissemination. Efforts should be made
to study and systematically apply the lessons of the accident and the events that
followed in terms of the principles of disaster management.
Towards a sustainable environment
12
Resources need to be focused on the most affected individuals and communities,
in particular on low income rural households who grow and gather their own
food. Innovative ways need to be developed to increase knowledge about how to
live safely in environments affected by radioactive contamination. Important
pilot studies have been carried out, often with international assistance. The
lessons of these pilot projects need now to be disseminated much more widely.
17
Final: 25.01.02
13
The concept of strategic environmental planning and transboundary
environmental cooperation should be promoted in the affected regions, with the
full participation of the communities concerned. This should involve support for
the training of regional planning and environmental specialists. Such planning
should, as far as possible, reflect the reality that the impact of Chernobyl
transcends the frontiers of the affected countries.
14
Continuing research is needed into the effects of radioactive contamination on
the environment and into how best to address problems such as the dispersal of
radio-nuclides in water and into the atmosphere, particularly as they affect
groups such as forestry workers and hunters and their families, who are
especially at risk because of their particular patterns of life.
15
It is proposed that an International Chernobyl Research Board (ICRB) be set up
under the umbrella of the proposed ICF. This would be an expert body, which
would meet periodically to make recommendations to the ICF on the priorities for
research in the fields of ecology and health. The ICRB would also be responsible
for making the results of research accessible to the public.
16
Efforts are needed to identify positive and sustainable ways to make use of the
most affected areas that reflect the radiation hazard, but also maximise the
potential for the benefit of the community. In this context, the international
community should explore with the governments concerned the possibilities for
promoting specialised tourism and for maximising the contribution that these
areas can make to the preservation of international biodiversity. Continued
efforts are also needed to develop and promote agricultural products that can be
produced safely where radionuclides are present in the soil.
17
Efforts should be made to strengthen the local capacity for sustainable
development by establishing a small grant facility for voluntary organisations
and local government interested in promoting sustainable development
initiatives. Consideration should be given to involving local people in the
development of local recovery plans for the most severely affected districts.
Health in the affected communities
18
Efforts to address the health effects of the Chernobyl accident need to be
undertaken in the context of a wider reform of health care provision in the three
countries. Such reform should be based on a rigorous examination of the cost
effectiveness of current practices and a determined effort to ensure that resources
are allocated on the basis of medical need. Strong measures are needed to
improve the level of care available to poor people living in rural areas.
Particular attention needs to be paid to addressing the effects of social and
environmental factors on health, including poverty, poor diet, alcoholism,
tobacco abuse and poor living conditions including inadequate basic services
such as sanitation and access to clean drinking water.
18
Final: 25.01.02
19
Increased attention needs to be paid to health education. This should be
undertaken in way which is participative and as far as possible is channelled
through local structures such as schools and parents’ groups. It should address
the issue of how to minimise the hazard to health from radioactive contamination
in the context of broader guidance on how to promote family health and wellbeing in the circumstances which prevail in the affected communities.
20
Continued efforts are needed in the field of medical research both as a basis for
designing more effective care and as a means to reduce distress caused by illgrounded fears. The International Chernobyl Research Board should make
recommendations on the priorities for research on issues relating to health and to
make the results of research accessible to the public. Research issues to which
particular attention needs to be paid include a possible link between radiation
and breast cancer, adult thyroid cancer, and the health of clean-up workers who
worked in the vicinity of the reactor during 1986 and 1987.
21
Special attention should be paid to the lifetime needs of the generation of people
who were infants or children at the time of the accident, lived in the areas affected
by the fallout of radioactive iodine and who may have contracted, or be at risk of,
thyroid cancer. For these, elimination of iodine deficiency is a priority (as, for
the population at large, is protection against iodine deficiency disorders through
the iodisation of salt). The international community should explore the possibility
of developing and funding a long-term strategy to support the special needs of
these people, many of whom will need expensive medication and monitoring for
the rest of their lives if they are to survive and enjoy good health.
23
The social, psychological and economic effects of the disaster should be properly
studied and evaluated and appropriate responses developed. Efforts must be
made to apply the lessons of successful interventions to address the psychological
and social needs of the affected individuals and communities more widely.
Careful consideration should be given to the results of research which indicates
that the psychological welfare of people who remained in their homes in the
affected areas after the accident is better than that of those who were evacuated.
24
A high and growing proportion of people who were evacuated from the affected
areas wish to return to their old homes. As far as possible people should be
allowed to take their own informed decisions about where they wish to live, even
if those decisions may lead to them facing a measure of increased risk. Studies
should be undertaken to establish how far the present regime of restrictions could
responsibly be relaxed, taking into consideration the different needs and degrees
of vulnerability of groups such as children, young people of child bearing age and
older people. This review should also consider the issue of whether the policy of
resettlement should be continued in its present form.
19
Final: 25.01.02
25
The new approach should fully reflect the vital role played by the voluntary
sector both in terms of the scale of the effort and resources involved, and in
exploring new initiatives and new forms of assistance. It should recognise that
well run partnership initiatives, based for example on links between towns,
communities, hospitals and children’s support groups, are a powerful means to
promote cost effective and sustainable programmes. Voluntary initiatives should
be supported with limited amounts of public funding from international sources to
promote a much wider application of the good practice already developed
through partnerships involving the affected communities. Such support should
combine accountability and cost effectiveness with full respect for the
independence of the voluntary groups concerned.
26
Efforts should be made to ensure that international initiatives supporting holidays
for children from the affected areas in families abroad promote a positive image
of the affected communities and that everything possible is done to ensure that the
visits and the associated publicity promote mutual respect and individual
development. The international community should promote the idea of a code of
best practice, to be drawn up in conjunction with the voluntary organisations to
ensure that parties involved in working with children from the affected
communities follow recognised guidelines in all areas of their activities.
Economic development and household incomes
27
Economic development aiming to make the affected communities economically
and socially viable in the medium and long-term should play a central role in
strategies to address the effects of Chernobyl. This should be done in such a way
as to give the individuals and communities concerned control over their own
futures, which is both efficient in terms of resources and crucial in addressing the
psychological and social effects of the accident.
28
To address the needs of the affected population, economic interventions are
needed at different levels. They need to reflect both the fact that very large
resources are needed to promote the economic recovery in these communities
effectively and also the reality that achieving economic self-sufficiency will free
up large national resources, which are at present tied up in subsidies and special
Chernobyl related assistance.
29
At the national level, sound finances and the creation of an open competitive
market economy and an investment friendly business environment are
preconditions for sustained recovery in the affected areas. Appropriate national
policies need to be supplemented by a proactive approach to stimulating
economic development at the regional and local levels.
30
It is important that national resources continue to be directed to the affected
areas and communities. Because of the very low levels of income in the most
affected rural areas, resources deployed under the national Chernobyl
20
Final: 25.01.02
programmes make a significant contribution to well being in these communities.
A sudden withdrawal of such funding would increase distress and set back the
process of recovery. As far as possible, however, these resources should be
focused more closely on the individuals and communities most in need. Support
needs to be sufficiently long-term realistically to bring about a change in
expectations, by fostering self-sufficiency and initiative on a sustainable basis.
31
At regional level, initiatives are needed to promote inward investment, domestic
and international, to promote employment and create a positive image for the
areas concerned. The international community can play an important part in this
by assisting in transferring experience from successful initiatives in other parts
of the world, which have been blighted by economic restructuring, high levels of
unemployment and environmental contamination. Efforts should be made to build
upon experience of the local economic development agencies already functioning
in the Gomel Region (Belarus) and Slavutich (Ukraine) to build a network of
intermediary organisations which are sensitive to local conditions and can act as
an interface with national and international development bodies and donors.
32
Active measures are needed to encourage the establishment and growth of small
and medium size enterprises in the affected areas and in the adjacent towns and
cities using the whole range of business support techniques which have been tried
and tested in other parts of the world. Because of the nature of the local
economies concerned, particular efforts are needed to promote indigenous
agricultural and food processing businesses by supporting the growth of existing
enterprises (whatever their ownership status), and through new ventures.
33
Examples of good practice in the three countries and abroad, including
community based solutions such as credit unions and producer and consumer cooperatives should be adapted to the special circumstances that apply in the
affected areas. An appropriate organisational framework should be developed to
ensure that such businesses get the support that they need.
34
At local level, a high priority should be given to supporting very small-scale
business development, including village level enterprise clusters to boost the
incomes of the poorest households. Such initiatives must draw on the growing
body of international experience in this area and be sensitive to the very special
problems affecting communities which largely depend on food production in
areas suffering from radioactive contamination.
35
Vigorous efforts should be made to promote the rebuilding of community
structures to replace those which were lost in the process of evacuation and as a
result of the break up of the Soviet Union. Initiatives specifically designed to
strengthen social interactions and promote community and economic leadership
in towns and villages are needed to underpin sustainable recovery.
21
Final: 25.01.02
Project Concepts
A.
Cross sectoral
1.
Policy dialogue on new strategy for international Chernobyl co-operation
*
2.
Support for the development of local sustainable development initiatives
through international voluntary partnerships.
*
3.
promoting consensus among governments, the donor community and the
voluntary sector is crucial to the success of the new strategy for postChernobyl recovery. The project would involve organising a series of
workshops, public hearings and media events at the national, regional and
local levels in the affected countries. The aim would be to build a
common approach based on the principles of international cooperation and
sustainable development.
since 1986, many community and institutional twinning links have
developed between local authorities, schools and other bodies in the
affected Regions and abroad. The project would encourage these to
extend from humanitarian assistance to sustainable development
initiatives, through promotion, training, and the operation of a small grants
scheme and would encourage the development of new international
twinning projects.
Promoting understanding of the
internationally validated research.
*
effects
of
the
accident
the project would address the need for a more systematic, independent and
better-funded approach to research into the ecological and health effects of
the Chernobyl accident through the establishment of an independent
International Chernobyl Foundation served by an international board of
experts in appropriate areas of environmental and health science.
B.
Towards a sustainable environment
4.
Transboundary environmental co-operation in the affected areas.
*
through
the project would seek to improve trans-boundary co-operation in dealing
with environmental issues such as water contamination, fire protection and
radiation protection standards, through joint projects, information
exchange and training.
22
Final: 25.01.02
5.
Promoting innovative radio-protective techniques in private agriculture.
*
6.
Strengthening capacity for primary environmental care and disaster
management
*
7.
the project would seek to promote the use of soil and fodder additives,
especially by small scale private farmers, which constitute the most at risk
group. It would promote new techniques. The project would encourage
long-term improvement in practices through training and example.
The project would (1) develop capacity for addressing priority
environmental issues at the local, community and household levels. It
would provide small grants to NGOs and local government bodies
initiating sustainable development initiatives, including activities aiming to
reduce radiological hazards and promote environmental education and
networking activities in the framework of UNICEF’s primary
environmental care approach; (2) analyse the implications of the accident
and the events that followed as a basis for strengthening local and national
capacities in the field of disaster management.
Conservation of the natural and cultural heritage of the affected areas.
*
The project would encourage long-term environmentally sustainable
economic development in the affected territories by promoting unique
features of the natural environment and culture of the area, develop the
local capacity for natural resources management and elaborate a plan for
conservation of biodiversity and cultural assets through economically and
socially sustainable measures such as the developing a network of reserves
and the promotion of scientific tourism.
C.
Health in the affected communities
8.
Development of international voluntary partnerships (IVPs) involving
hospitals and clinics in affected areas.
*
the project would promote, monitor and a provide a small grant facility to
support the establishment of IVP links between hospitals and clinics
serving the affected communities and similar institutions in other
countries. The grants would be allocated on the basis of proposals through
competitive selection. The project would provide a cost effective means
of building links between health workers in the affected communities and
in other parts of the world, promoting mutual understanding and
disseminating best practice in health care.
23
Final: 25.01.02
9.
Integrated health education through training of trainers, parents as
educators in healthy living and schools of health
*
10.
Strengthening primary health care
*
11.
the project would raise awareness of, and implement integrated holistic
approaches to, primary health care within the health care system; build
capacity to address local infant and child health priorities; strengthen
health surveillance; evaluate essential drugs and equipment and promote
greater community involvement in primary health care delivery.
Addressing the needs of children and youth from the affected areas
*
12.
the project would: (1) address life style problems at the root of high levels
of heart disease and trauma in the affected areas, by training medical and
nursing staff in health promotion, multi-skilling health workers, promoting
internet access and encouraging women’s health initiatives and other
targeted programmes; (2) assist parents to give children healthy living
knowledge and habits from an early age. The project would involve
participative training and learning based in schools, community centres
and social and cultural centres in the affected areas; (3) promote
UNICEF’s Schools of Health concept by preparing and implementing a
programme in the affected areas to encourage schools to use methods
which promote childrens’ health involving coordinated action by teachers,
psychologists and physicians leading to this approach becoming part of the
core curriculum.
the project would: (1) develop the capacity of youth organisations and the
media to promote young people’s health and development in the affected
areas; and (2) evaluate the impact of youth health holidays and address the
need for an agreed set of international guidelines covering the activities of
NGOs and IVPs working with young people from the affected areas.
Mutual respect and individual and community development should
underlie work with young people. There is a risk that, in seeking host
families, sponsoring organisations may sometimes inadvertently propagate
inaccurate and negative images of life in the affected communities. The
project would promote the concept of guidelines, organise consultation and
endorsement and disseminate an agreed definition of good practice.
Research on priority health issues.
*
This family of projects would promote research into: (1) the health of
clean-up workers; (2) claims of excess breast cancer; possible excess
incidence of thyroid cancer in adults; (3) distribution of caesium in body
tissues and risk of specific damage; (4) cost effectiveness of screening for
thyroid cancer; (5) treatment and follow-up needs of thyroid cancer
24
Final: 25.01.02
patients; (6) possible effects of radiation on intra-uterine development; (7)
relative advantages of resettlement as compared to continued residence in
(or return to) contaminated areas.
13.
From psychosocial rehabilitation to development.
*
the project would support the existing Socio-Psychological Rehabilitation
Centres; help to re-orient their focus from rehabilitation to development;
strengthen links with local government and the NGO sector and develop
their potential as instruments for promoting a wider understanding of
issues relating to the risks and perceived risks of living in areas affected by
radio-active contamination.
D.
Economic development and household incomes
14.
A network of regional economic development agencies in the affected areas.
*
15.
Promoting inward investment in the affected areas.
*
16.
regional economic development agencies have proved their value in many
parts of the world. The special problems and opportunities of the affected
areas call for a locally rooted approach, built on partnership between
public administration and the enterprise sector. Such agencies could
encourage new small and medium size business ventures, help existing
businesses to grow and provide an interface between international donors
and the local community.
large resources are needed to bring about the recovery of the affected
areas. Specialist skills are needed to identify the comparative advantages;
build positive images; actively seek national and foreign investors;
facilitate the investment process; and maintain a relationship with
investors. The project would support capacity building through existing
structures and specialist inward investment promotion bodies.
Reshaping regional and national budgets and commuting Chernobyl benefits
into start-up finance for income generation.
*
(1) there is a continuing need in the three countries to promote better
targeted use of public resources and to increase the effectiveness of social
welfare spending while making resources available for local and regional
economic development; (2) many families living in resettlement
communities depend wholly on Chernobyl benefits. This drains scarce
public resources and has created a multi-generational downward spiral of
dependence. Such families have animal raising and horticultural skills,
but lack capital to buy stock and equipment. The project would contribute
25
Final: 25.01.02
to buying out entitlement to benefits in return for start-up finance for
household businesses and provide support in the initial stages.
17.
Development of village level clusters of household businesses.
*
18.
Promotion of international enterprise partnerships through transfer of
technology and business best practice
*
19.
the project would address the need to strengthen the commercial and
technical basis of small and medium sized businesses in the affected
Regions by promoting partnerships with businesses in other countries.
The project would provide grants and would involve the transfer of
technology and improved business practices linked to the establishment of
a commercial relationship between the partners. The concept is based on a
format successfully piloted in Romania through the EU Phare Programme.
Creation of a network of credit unions in the affected areas.
*
20.
rural families in the affected areas traditionally depended on state and
collective farms for their money incomes, but produced much of their food
themselves. The project would assist households through advice and small
grants to build income-generating activities on the basis of their domestic
skills. Promoting village level clusters of household businesses would
generate economies of scale in purchasing, transport and marketing and
encourage technical and business skills at the local level
pilot projects already successfully undertaken by UNDP and other
agencies demonstrate the possibility of promoting household level
businesses and self-sufficiency through credit unions. The project would
extend this experience to a range of communities in the affected areas and
in resettlement villages using proven methods involving the provision of
advice, training, management support and small scale start-up finance.
Slavutich Town customised training initiative.
*
the project would help to equip people made redundant from the
Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant with the skills to enable them to find
employment in the construction of the new containment shelter and other
civil works associated with decommissioning. It would offer a service to
the construction companies in identifying and training potential local
recruits to meet their specific needs. The industry would play a part in the
management of the initiative and contribute human and material resources.
The above concepts are developed more fully in Project Notes available from the
UNDP and UNICEF offices in Kiev, Minsk and Moscow.
26
Final: 25.01.02
Part II: Mission Findings
Section 2: The accident and the events that followed
2.01
The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant is located in the Kiev region in the north of
Ukraine, 7 km south of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in an area of forest and
meadows near the point where the Prypiat river joins the Dneiper. It started
producing power in 1977. The fourth reactor unit went into operation at the end
of 1983. Between 1 and 2 am on the 26th of April 1986, an accidental explosion
during a safety test destroyed the core of this unit and started a powerful fire,
which lasted for about 10 days. A massive amount of radioactivity was released
into the environment during the explosion and the fire.
2.02
Contamination was most intense around the stricken reactor, where lumps of the
reactor core expelled by the explosion and large particles fell. However, the bulk
of the radioactive material significant for the current environmental situation was
initially released to the atmosphere. This material was carried by the wind and
gradually fell out over large areas of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and beyond. During
the fire the wind and other climatic conditions changed several times. Initially the
radioactive plume was blown westwards across northern Ukraine and southern
Belarus. Subsequently fallout was carried in a northerly direction, affecting the
eastern parts of Belarus and the western areas of the Russian Federation and then
in a southerly direction towards Kiev.
Evolution of the environmental situation
2.03
Reliable data regarding the composition and distribution of radioactive
contamination during the first weeks after the accident is lacking. However, the
released material certainly contained a wide variety of radioactive substances with
various physical, chemical and biological properties. Of primary significance to
human health during this period was radioactive iodine - the isotope 131I, which
ultimately led to a large increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in children
born prior to the accident. This isotope has a half-life of 8.05 days, so the extent
of its presence in the environment immediately after the accident can only be
judged from historic data, mathematical models or expensive high-tech field
research. All these sources point to the possibility of high initial 131I
contamination even outside the areas currently designated as affected by the
Chernobyl accident.
2.04
Radioactive particles were deposited on soil, vegetation, buildings, machinery and
other objects. Gamma-radiation emitted by these particles was the major
component of the so-called “external” dose received by the population during the
first months after the accident. During the period of the fire, the weather in the
western part of the Soviet Union was showery. The distribution of the fallout
depended largely on where it happened to rain and hence was very patchy. As a
27
Final: 25.01.02
result, the level of contamination can vary greatly between one village and
another and even between adjacent fields.
2.05
The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident primarily affected rural areas
largely occupied by forests and wetlands as well as arable land and pastures.
Prior to the accident rural communities in the area traditionally relied on
agriculture (mainly grain, potato and flax production and livestock farming) as
well as on harvesting wild products such as mushrooms, berries, game and fish.
The timber industry and peat extraction were also important components of the
local economy.
Immediate Response (1986 – 1991)
2.06
Immediate action to tackle the consequences of the accident focused on protecting
the population from exposure to the already released radioactivity. This was
achieved through urgent evacuation of the town of Pripyat and other nearby
settlements, and by clean-up works. Evacuation was initially applied on an
obligatory basis to the population of the Exclusion Zone (extending 30 km in all
directions from the Chernobyl Plant). Later, the primary criteria became the
density of contamination of the area by the radioactive isotope of caesium (137Cs)
and the average individual doses for particular settlements. Clean-up works
involved washing off buildings and streets, removing topsoil and burying
contaminated equipment. To prevent further release of radioactivity, a structure the so-called shelter or sarcophagus - was fabricated around the stricken reactor.
Highly contaminated soil in the vicinity was removed. A system of dams and
other waterworks was erected to reduce the run-off from contaminated territories.
2.07
Restrictions on land-use were implemented and controls of radioactive
contamination in foodstuffs and other produce strengthened. In the years
following the accident, standards for contamination by radioactive substances
were made progressively stricter. The restrictions on land use were supplemented
by the application of agricultural countermeasures to prevent the migration of
radio-nuclides from soil to food stuffs. A strong research and development
capacity was created to achieve this purpose. Dozens of countermeasures were
tested and some were introduced in routine practice.
2.08
A policy of compensation for various categories of Chernobyl victims was also
introduced. The eligible groups included people who had been involved in the
post accident clean-up, people who had been resettled and people who continued
to live in areas with above a certain level of contamination. Compensation took
the form of welfare payments and free and priority access to such things as
medicine, travel and health recuperation holidays. The cost of these measures
rapidly became a significant factor in the national budget. According to the
Ukrainian national report “15 Years after the Chernobyl Catastrophe” the Soviet
Union spent $18 billion on Chernobyl rehabilitation between 1986 and 1991. Of
this, 35% went on “social assistance to affected people” and 17% on resettlement.
28
Final: 25.01.02
Chernobyl and the politics of transition
2.09
Important features of the policies adopted and continued by the Governments of
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, can only be properly understood in the context of
Soviet conditions and practices and the politics of the transition. Soviet
legislation gave high priority to the protection of the welfare of the citizen but,
because of the absence of market based pricing, planners lacked the means to
estimate opportunity costs effectively. Exchange of information and dissent were
limited, while the State possessed very considerable powers of compulsion.
2.10
For example, mass resettlement had been used, in the comparatively recent past,
as an instrument of public policy in the Second World War in the cases of the socalled Volga Germans and the Crimea Tartars and in the settlement of
Kaliningrad after the War. Following the Chernobyl accident, the Soviet
Government adopted a very cautious policy with regard to the level of radioactive
contamination which was considered acceptable for inhabited areas. This meant
that a large number of people were subject to compulsory or voluntary
resettlement. Because of the political environment, the Soviet State, with its vast
resources, was able to embark on resettling several hundred thousand people
without serious challenge from the communities concerned.
2.11
After the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, Chernobyl became a key factor in
domestic politics and in relations between the three new states. Belarus and
Ukraine demanded compensation from Russia for the effects of the accident.
Political institutions and procedures were immature. Politicians took up the issue
of Chernobyl energetically on behalf of their constituents and in some cases
parliaments agreed benefits without adequate regard to the resources available.
As a result, some commitments could not be fully met. Especially in the case of
Belarus and Ukraine, Chernobyl benefits came to represent a heavy burden on the
national budgets and drained resources away from other areas of public spending.
By the late 1990s, however, scaling them down, or exploring alternative strategies
had become politically impossible.
2.12
Faced with limited resources, the three countries each adopted different priorities.
In Belarus priority was given to improving conditions in communities situated in
contaminated areas, or which received large numbers of resettlers. Substantial
resources were also allocated to assisting collective farms to grow clean products.
The Russian government continued to pay comparatively high allowances to
Chernobyl victims, but in the late 1990s virtually stopped resettlement even from
the most severely contaminated areas. Support for protective measures for pasture
and arable land also declined steeply. The government of Ukraine spent heavily
on resettling people and improving living conditions and also faced the burden of
making the Chernobyl power plant safe and preparing it for closure.
29
Final: 25.01.02
National Programmes 1991-2001
2.13
Strategy for post-Chernobyl rehabilitation is spelt out in National Programmes.
The first of these was adopted in 1990 by the Soviet parliament. Later each
country produced its own programme. These are based on legislation passed by
the national parliaments during the 1990s. While the programmes have a lot in
common, each reflects particular national circumstances.
The National
Programmes take the form of action plans. They list tasks to be undertaken, with
targets in terms of the number of flats, houses, schools, cultural centres, public
baths and hospitals to be built. However, the way that they are prepared makes it
difficult to assess the qualitative impact, and hence the cost effectiveness, of the
expenditure involved.
2.14
Belarus has recently started implementing the “National Programme of the
Republic of Belarus on Mitigation of Consequences of the Chernobyl NPP
Catastrophe for 2001 – 2005 and until 2010”. The Russian Federation has Federal
Programmes concerning protection of the population against the consequences of
Chernobyl; “Children of Chernobyl”; and “Housing for Liquidators”. A new
Ukrainian National Programme is expected to be adopted by the parliament this
year. This will establish rehabilitation tasks for the period from 2001 to 2005.
2.15
The scale of rehabilitation actions undertaken by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
from 1986 to the year 2000, is indicated by the official statistics on the number of
houses, schools and hospitals built, as shown in table 2.1. Very large investments
were also made in physical infrastructure such as roads, water and electricity
supply and sewerage. Because of the risk that was believed to be involved in
burning locally produced wood and peat, many villages were provided with
access to gas supplies for heating and cooking. This involved laying down a total
of 8,980 kilometres of gas pipeline in the three countries in the fifteen years
following the accident.
Table 2.1 Housing and social provision
Houses and flats
Schools (number of places)
Kindergartens (number of places)
Outpatient health centres (visits/day)
Hospitals (beds)
Belarus
64,836
44,072
18,470
20,922
4,160
Russia
36,779
18,373
3,850
8,295
2,669
Ukraine
28,692
48,847
11,155
9,564
4,391
Total
130,307
111,292
33,475
38,781
11,220
Social Protection
2.16
The system of compensation payments established after the accident reflected a
Soviet practice of, in effect, compensating exposure to risk rather than actual
injury. Belarusian and Russian legislation provides more than seventy, and
Ukrainian legislation more than fifty, different privileges and benefits for
Chernobyl victims, depending on factors such as the degree of invalidity and the
level of contamination. The system also guarantees allowances, some of which
30
Final: 25.01.02
are paid direct, while others take the form of, for example, free meals for
schoolchildren. In all three countries, each family member is paid a monthly
bonus for living on contaminated territory, but the size of the payment depends on
circumstances. In Belarus these allowances vary from 2 to 20% of the minimum
wage. In Russia, a family with two children can receive almost $40 per month,
which is comparable to the average wage. However, such entitlements are
unequally paid and in some cases people living in less affected areas get higher
benefits, which feeds public discontent.
Box 2.1: Categories of “Chernobyl victims”
Those officially designated as Chernobyl victims include people who:
• fell ill with radiation sickness or became invalids due to the consequences of the accident;
• took part in clean-up activities on the Chernobyl site and in the evacuation zones in 1986 – 1987 (the so
called “liquidators”);
• participated in clean-up activities in 1988 – 1989;
• continue to live in areas designated as contaminated; and,
• were evacuated, or resettled, or left the affected areas on their own initiative.
2.17
Benefits for Chernobyl victims cover numerous aspects of life: health care,
housing, travel, tax exemptions, access to university education, compensation for
property and damage to health and monthly allowances for disabilities linked to
Chernobyl. Some are implemented in full, while others can only be applied in
part because of resource constraints. For example, invalids and liquidators are
entitled to free medicines, though lack of cheap locally manufactured
pharmaceuticals means that this is not always applied. Other privileges, such as
priority access in hospitals, telecom offices, restaurants and car maintenance are
in practice rarely claimed. Some other privileges, such as hors concours
admission to universities and colleges would appear to be questionable in public
policy terms.
2.18
Poverty caused by resettlement, restrictions on agriculture and the effect of the
collapse of the Soviet Union led to more and more people claiming Chernobyl
related benefits. With the economic crisis of the 1990s, registration as a victim of
Chernobyl became for many the only means of access to an income and to vital
aspects of health provision, including medicines. Several million people are now
receiving pensions and special health care privileges as a result of being
categorised as in some way affected (see Table 2.2). According to Ukrainian
figures, the number of people designated as permanently disabled by the
Chernobyl accident (and their children) increased from 200 in 1991 to 64,500 in
1997 and 91,219 in 2001. With inflation and increasing budget constraints,
however, the value of the payments steadily fell. Thus in Belarus, the value of
payments made to help people living in the affected areas to buy clean food is
currently around $1.50 per person per month. The system has also created
incentives that encourage potentially harmful or wasteful behaviour. The Mission
spoke to people who had returned to the affected areas with their families in order
to be able to claim a higher level of benefits. It met tractor mechanics in a
31
Final: 25.01.02
bankrupt farm in the Briansk Region of Russia who were not being paid, but who
had turned down an opportunity to open their own workshop for fear of losing
Chernobyl entitlements.
Table 2.2 Number of people affected by the Chernobyl accident (to December 2000)
Belarus
Russia
Ukraine
Total
Resettled people
135,000
52,400
163,000
350,400*
People living on contaminated territories
1,571,000 1,788,600
1,140,813
4,500,413
Liquidators 1986/87
70,371
160,000
61,873
292,244
Liquidators 1988/89
37,439
40,000
488,963
566,402
Invalids **
9,343
50,000
88,931
148,274
Total
1,823,153 2,091,000
3,189,477
7,103,630
* Includes voluntary resettlers ** Definitions vary between the three countries
Health improvement
2.19
The initial response of the authorities to the medical aspects of the accident were
those characteristic of the former Soviet Union. Registries of affected people
were created and substantial resources were devoted to pensions and health care
privileges, such as yearly medical examinations and extended visits to sanatoria
for children. Epidemiology was poorly developed in the Soviet Union and much
data relating to radiation was treated as secret. The amount of scientific
information available to policy makers on the relationship between exposure to
radiation and specific health conditions was therefore limited. As a result, a wide
range of health conditions entitled an individual to be classified as a victim of
Chernobyl. Ongoing uncertainty over the health consequences of exposure to
radiation contributed to the pressure to register an ever-increasing number of
people. This in turn further reduced the resources available for mainstream
provision, both in the affected communities and beyond.
2.20
As the Soviet system of welfare provision has dwindled, the expansion of
individual Chernobyl related benefits has led to a situation where scarce resources
are allocated not primarily on the basis of medical need but rather on an
individual’s ability to register as a victim. The system has promoted an
exaggerated awareness of ill-health and a sense of dependency, which has
prevented those concerned from taking part in normal economic and social life.
This pattern of behaviour was described by the Kiev conference on the Health
Effects of the Chernobyl Accident (organised with the participation of the
Governments of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine in June 2001), as the “Chernobyl
accident victim syndrome”.
2.21
Health holidays in sanatoria and summer camps are fully financed by the
authorities for invalids, liquidators, people who continue to live in highly
contaminated areas, children and adolescents. If the authorities cannot provide
free holidays they are required to pay compensation. In Belarus almost 500,000
people, including more than 400,000 children, have the right to free holidays.
32
Final: 25.01.02
Children living in areas with contamination at a level above 5Ci/km2 (five Curies
per square kilometre have the right to two months holiday. Disabled children and
those under school age have to be accompanied by a parent, bringing the total
entitlement to 700,000 holiday months a year. In practice, financial constraints
limit the actual number of holiday months. In the year 2000, 293,895 Belarussian
children and adults were provided with such holidays. A similar situation exists
in Ukraine. Table 2.3 indicates the number of health holiday months taken per
year in Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2000.
Table 2.3 Health improvement holidays in Ukraine (1994 –2000)
Adults
Children
1994
57,000
340,000
1995
38,000
401,000
1996
49,000
453,000
1997
37,000
467,400
1998
41,900
482,200
1999
30,500
427,100
2000
25,400
347,500
Total
397,000
439,000
502,000
504,400
524,100
457,600
372,900
Pressure for change
2.22
This analysis of the Government response in the years following the accident is
not intended to suggest that the policies concerned were necessarily inappropriate
in the context of the transition period. Resettlement certainly reduced the
collective dose and the number of individuals receiving unacceptably high doses.
In the absence of alternatives, Chernobyl benefits became the key to survival for
many of those whose lives were blighted by the accident. It does, however,
explain how countries facing deep economic crisis became locked into a
disruptive and expensive programme of resettlement and compensation without
adequate examination of the costs and benefits involved. It also points to the need
to examine whether the same results could not now be achieved by other means at
a lower human and financial cost.
2.23
All three countries have seen a change in emphasis in their Chernobyl recovery
programmes in the last few years. It is still not clear what direction policy will
take in future. The pressure to find a new way forward has come about as a result
of three main factors. First, the resettlement programmes are complete or
virtually complete. Second, the seemingly inexorable rise in Chernobyl related
welfare payments has forced policy makers to question whether the current
pattern of expenditure is cost effective. Third, while nothing like a consensus yet
exists, a clearer picture is beginning to emerge of the impact of exposure to
Chernobyl-type radiation and health than was available previously.
2.24
The enormous scale of the effort currently being made by the three governments
means that even small improvements in efficiency could significantly increase the
resources available for those in need. Assessing the costs and benefits of
33
Final: 25.01.02
particular interventions more rigorously, and focusing resources more effectively,
should be a high priority. This however, will take courage as reallocating
resources is likely to face strong resistance from the many vested interests
involved.
2.25
In practice, funding for the Federal Chernobyl programmes has declined steadily
in recent years. This has left many projects half completed. Thus the Briansk
Region in Russia has only been able to build 62% of the housing needed for
relocation, 14% of the schools and 27% of outpatient centres. According to
Briansk administration data, there are more than 1,200 uncompleted houses, water
supply stations and other public buildings in the Region. The Mission saw many
examples of abandoned half-built houses and facilities in resettlement villages in
the course of its visits.
Table 2.4 Chernobyl budget expenditures of the Ukraine, M$US
Item
1. Social protection
2. Special medical care
3. Scientific research
4. Radiation control
5. Environmental recovery
6. Radiological rehabilitation &
radioactive material disposal
7. Resettlement, housing and
living conditions improvement
8. Exclusion zone maintenance
9. Other expenditures
Total
1992
197.3
6.3
3.2
2.0
0.3
1993
196.5
3.0
4.4
1.6
.01
0.1
1994
478.1
8.8
5.0
2.3
0.4
0.2
1995
384.0
22.8
5.9
3.1
0.4
0.1
1996
545.6
19.0
7.0
4.4
0.2
0.2
1997
637.4
15.9
6.4
15.7
0.2
0.3
1998
429.1
8.2
8.9
8.7
0.2
0.2
1999
292.5
6.6
2.6
4.1
0.1
0.1
2000
290.1
6.4
1.8
2.7
.04
.05
276.1
197.8
205.3
167.4
194.1
193.8
86.5
39.50
13.7
19.7
17.7
510.8
25.8
15.9
436.0
46.4
25.9
755.7
44.9
41.9
638.3
52.1
43.4
835.2
56.1
13.2
939.0
42.5
0.3
584.7
25.6
0.7
371.8
17.4
0.4
332.7
2.26
In Ukraine, the overall Chernobyl budget has been declining since 1997 because
of shortage of resources (Table 2.4). The proportion of expenses allocated to
resettlement and living conditions improvement has gradually decreased while the
proportion accounted for by social assistance, including medical care, welfare
payments and health holidays, has increased - from 39% in 1992 to 87% in 2000.
Some 4,600 people who agreed to be resettled are still waiting for new homes to
be built. Budget constraints have meant that support for farmers to produce safe
food has been cut back. The Republic of Belarus too has almost completed its
resettlement programme, with 7,000 people still waiting for new homes. With a
significant proportion of good agricultural land blighted by contamination, the
Government decided to restore some land to crops in the mid-1990s.
2.27
Politicians and administrators generally expected the process of recovery to be
over once resettlement was complete and the population were provided with jobs
and proper services. To their deep disappointment, the gravity of the Chernobyl
issue showed no sign of declining with the passage of time. As one public servant
in the Gomel region of Belarus told the Mission: “We spent enormous sums of
money in Chernobyl areas, but the number of complaints from people in the
villages stays almost the same”.
34
Final: 25.01.02
2.28
The Mission found that government officials interviewed recognized that they
could not simply continue with existing policies. They understood that a new
approach would be needed which gave a higher priority to economic regeneration
as the key to improvements in the affected rural communities, including
improvements in health and ecology. Resources will be needed to create
opportunities for people to support themselves and improve their own living
conditions. The planning methods inherited from the old Soviet system will not
be adequate to meet the challenges of the forthcoming phase. New concepts of
social and economic rehabilitation will be needed based on qualitative as well as
quantitative targets. The policy options for the coming years are discussed more
fully in the following sections.
Section 3: Environmental Consequences
Current environmental situation
3.01
Radioactive contamination resulting from the Chernobyl explosion poses health
risks to the rural population and constrains economic development. The
significance of contamination for a particular location, community or household
depends primarily on the level of Chernobyl fallout. The most widely used
indicator is the density of contamination by radioactive caesium 137Cs. In
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, the territory is considered “contaminated” if this
parameter exceeds 1 Ci/km2. So defined, there are 43 500 km2 of contaminated
territory in Belarus, 59 300 km2 in Russia and 37 600 km2 in Ukraine.
Contaminated territory is divided into five zones as shown in Table 3.1. It should
be noted that 1Ci/km2 is a relatively low level of contamination. In substantial
areas of Britain, France and Scandinavia, for example, natural background
radiation, resulting in part from radon gas released from granite and other rocks,
occurs at a level of between 1 and 5 Ci/km2.
3.02
Officially designated contaminated territories account for 23% of the surface area
of Belarus, 5% of Ukraine and 1.5% of the Russian Federation. The population of
these territories is around 6 million people: about 19% of the population of
Belarus, 5% of the population of Ukraine and about 1% of the population of the
Russian Federation. Serious concerns primarily relate to the so-called "highly
contaminated territories" where contamination is between 15 and 40 ci/km2. At
present between 150 and 200 thousand people permanently reside in these areas.
The population of the zones with contamination exceeding 40 ci/km2 is
insignificant and not precisely known.
35
Final: 25.01.02
Table 3.1: Zones of contamination in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
Contamination
Official designation of zones
density by 137Cs
(Ci/km2 )
Belarus*
Russia**
Ukraine***
1-5
Periodic
radiation
monitoring
Privileged
socioeconomic
status
Zone
enhanced
radiological
control
of
5-15
Zone with the Right to resettle Zone
right
to (if dose > 1 guaranteed
resettle
mSv/year)
resettlement
of
15-40
Zone
of Mandatory
Zone
secondary
resettlement (if obligatory
137Cs
resettlement
>40 resettlement
2
Ci/km or dose
Zone
of
> 5mSv/year).
priority
Voluntary
if
resettlement
below
of
>40
Territories
adjacent to the
Chernobyl
NPP
(including the 30km
zone).
Population
evacuated 1986 1987
Zone
of Resettlement
Exclusion zone
evacuation
zone (exclusion
(exclusion
zone)
zone)
Sources: * - Goskomchernobyl 2001, ** - Russian Federation 1992, *** Ukraine 2001
3.03
Apart from the question of radioactive contamination caused by the Chernobyl
accident, environmental trends on the affected territories are typical for rural areas
of the former Soviet Union. The larger part of the affected areas was not
significantly affected by industrial or urban pollution. Due to the recent economic
decline, pollution from agricultural sources has also declined. The Mission found
that, as in other rural areas, environmental services, such as drinking water
supply, sewerage, waste water treatment, municipal solid waste collection and
disposal are generally of a poor standard. Waste water was the most frequently
mentioned local environmental problem. Gas heating systems had been provided
extensively to the affected communities as a means to reduce the burning of
36
Final: 25.01.02
contaminated wood and peat. The Mission visited a number of locations,
especially those initially designated for resettlement, where investment on local
infrastructure had been frozen, leaving the situation with regard to basic
environmental services worse than in comparable non-affected areas.
Environmental contamination as a source of health risks
3.04
It is generally recognised that substantial doses of radiation were received by the
general public and the clean-up workers in the period immediately following the
Chernobyl accident (Table 3.2). According to some estimates (including
UNSCEAR 2000) up to 90% of the total collective dose was received in the
period between 1986 and 1995. Since risks that have already been incurred
cannot be influenced by current or future environmental measures, the Report
concentrates on future hazards.
3.05
Virtually all doses from environmental sources currently received by the general
public on the affected territories are within the range of “low” doses. It should be
noted that there is no universal scientific agreement on the nature and scale of the
health risks of long-term exposure to so-called "low" levels of radiation. The
ongoing medical debate on this issue is outside the scope of the current Report.
According to mainstream scientific evidence, however, the health effects of
individual lifetime doses well under one Sievert (1Sv) would not be statistically
distinguishable from the pattern of disease in the population at large.
Table 3.2. Average individual doses received 1986-1995 by population of
affected territories in relation to current density of contamination by 137Cs
Land
Average individual doses* received in 1986-95 by
contamination residents of affected territories, mSv
137Cs,
by
Ci/km2
Belarus
Russia
Ukraine
1-5
3.9
4.2
11.7
5-15
18.7
13.0
24.4
> 15
47.0
35.7
82.6
Source: derived from UNSCEAR 2000. Note: * - excluding doses to thyroid
Radiation doses
3.06
The threshold for assigning settlements to the status of "contaminated by the
Chernobyl accident" is an average annual dose of 1 mSv (milli Sievert).
Ukrainian Chernobyl-related legislation aims to avoid individual doses exceeding
1 mSv/year or 70 mSv per lifetime (Ukraine 2001). The figure of 1 mSv/year is
37
Final: 25.01.02
also the current public dose limit recommended by the International Committee
on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Thus, the annual average dose of 1 mSv (or
an equivalent lifetime dose of 70 mSv) can be considered as a reference value for
discussion of the actual doses of the affected population. Accurate measurement
or calculation of doses is notoriously difficult and subject to many uncertainties
and assumptions. This is one reason why the density of contamination per square
kilometre rather than individual doses is primarily used as a criterion for
compensation and counter-measures. It is even more difficult to forecast doses.
3.07
Generally speaking, doses of radiation depend upon three factors: (a) the level of
contamination of a particular territory; (b) the nature of migration of radiation in
the environment and into human bodies; and (c) the lifestyle and behaviour of the
affected population. While (a) has been most generally used to describe the
potential radiological hazard associated with particular areas, it is (b) and (c) that
can be most easily influenced. The sources of doses to human beings are shown
in Figure 3.1. The majority of the current collective dose results from
contamination of the environment by 137Cs. A significant part of the dose derives
from internal irradiation resulting from contamination of foodstuffs, most notably
milk, meat and forest products (such as game, fish, berries and mushrooms).
3.08
Figure 3.1 also shows the various ways in which radioactive material can enter
human beings. The dose received from foodstuffs, drinking water and inhalation,
the so-called "internal dose", has decreased less sharply than the external dose
and, at the moment, accounts for a large proportion of the total dose received by
people in affected areas. Important sources are food and drink and the inhalation
of radioactive particles, especially as a result of forest or peat bog fires or heating
houses with contaminated wood. During forest or peat bog fires substantial
amounts of radioactive material currently locked in soil or vegetation may be
released into the atmosphere, and transported across large distances. In addition,
most people on contaminated territories are subject to some external exposure.
Figure 3.1. Key sources of radiation doses to humans resulting from the accident.
Source: adapted from Ukraine 2001
38
Final: 25.01.02
Irradiation ofhum ans
(doses)
External
Internal
Ingestion
Inhalation
Eco- and agro-systems
Vertical migration
Fallout
Wet and dry precipitation
Transport in the atmosphere
Radioactive cloud
Fire atthe ChernobylNPP
3.09
As the Ukrainian National Report recognises, rural populations generally receive
higher doses than urban populations. Table 3.3 shows the current and projected
doses for the rural population of Ukraine, averaged for the officially designated
contamination zones. It demonstrates that the average dose for about 11,600
people residing in the most contaminated territories (137Cs > 10 Ci/km2 ) will
somewhat exceed 70 mSv in their lifetimes to 2055. However, only a small
proportion of this dose (about 20 mSv) is likely to be incurred between 2000 and
2055. Table 3.3 also demonstrates that the major contribution to the collective
dose occurs in highly populated areas with a low density of contamination,
whereas significantly higher individual doses are received on largely depopulated
but highly contaminated areas. Thus, reducing the collective dose and reducing
the dose for high-risk groups require different approaches.
Table 3.3: Past and projected doses of the rural population of Ukraine
137Cs/k
m2
1
Populatio Number Average
dose, mSv
n,
in of
thousand settleme
19861986
s
nts
2000
individual Collective
person/Sv
19862055
198 19866
2000
19862055
21742,2
1,5
778
25357
5
32694
27523
0,36
1,2
39
dose,
Final: 25.01.02
Average
dose, mSv
individual Collective
person/Sv
dose,
1-2
892,2
1153
2,1
12
14
190
10302
2
12485
2-5
423,4
669
4,5
20
25
190
8516
7
10542
5-10
39,6
120
11
34
44
426 1337
1737
10-15
8,4
22
21
54
73
176 457
614
15-
3,2
11
26
74
96
83
313
23109,0
29498
0,7
2,0
2,5
162
46210
51
Total
241
58385
Source: Ukraine National Report 2001
3.10
In particular villages and towns, the doses may be significantly higher than the
average for a particular zone. There are currently more than 400 towns and
villages in Ukraine where the average individual dose exceeds 1mSv/year. This
number has declined significantly from the early 1990s, but has remained
relatively stable in recent years. In 1996 in Russia, there were 307 villages (more
than 48,000 people) where the average individual dose exceeded 1 mSv/year and
6 settlements (about 2,000 people) where the dose exceeded 5 mSv/year
(Stepanenko 2001).
3.11
The variation of average doses between localities with the same degree of
environmental contamination is determined by their environmental characteristics
and by the effectiveness of the countermeasures. For example, radio-nuclides
more readily migrate to vegetation (and hence to animals and ultimately to human
bodies) on poor sandy and peaty soils and uncultivated pastures. Extensive peat
bogs and mature forests present higher fire risks. Many of the pathways of
radiation in the environment can be artificially controlled and managed to reduce
the dose rates. Monitoring of foodstuffs, drinking water and other key
environmental media can point to specific problem localities.
3.12
The doses may also vary widely within a particular town or village. In the same
locality the variation of the doses to different individuals primarily depends upon
lifestyle and the behavioural factors summarised in Box 3.1. At one end of the
spectrum are well-educated and economically better-off urban dwellers who
purchase their food. At the other end are the poorest and least educated groups of
the rural population, who consume food from their own plots and from the forest.
This conclusion is confirmed by numerous empirical measurements using whole
body counters, which point to higher accumulated radioactivity among poor
people from the countryside.
40
Final: 25.01.02
3.13
There are indications that radioactive substances such as as 137Cs and 90Sr may be
migrating towards deep ground aquifers and accumulating in closed water bodies.
This potentially presents a long-term threat to health the extent of which needs to
be studied further (Germenchuk 2001). In one community visited by the Mission,
a programme of laying down pipes to bring non-contaminated water to the
community had been initiated. However, for budgetary reasons, the project had
been stopped when the pipes were still several hundred metres from the village.
A number of residents expressed concern over what they saw as a continuing
threat to the health of their families. It was not possible for the Mission to
establish how serious a problem radioactive contamination of drinking water
supplies is in the affected areas. However, internationally accredited studies,
including one recently sponsored by UNDP in Russia (UNDP 2001), indicate that
the extent of contamination of aquifers is currently insignificant and only longterm monitoring is necessary. If this is indeed the case, it is important that steps
be taken to reassure the public, as the issue is a cause for concern.
High risk groups
3.14
There is some evidence that the doses received by high risk groups, as well as the
number of people involved, may have been increasing in recent years, despite the
overall reduction in radioactive contamination. This could result from increased
poverty pushing people into switching to locally grown food, abandoning
fertiliser-based countermeasures and consuming more forest products. Some of
the recent economic changes, such as the disintegration of collective farms in
Russia and Ukraine and the encouragement of private agricultural
entrepreneurship, may have contributed to this trend. An increase in dose rates
could also be linked to decreasingly effective protective policies. Banning the
sale of products such as milk outside the affected areas (as has been done in
Russia) may also have increased dose rates for the most at risk groups.
3.15
Foodstuffs that are certified as clean are widely available from commercial
sources but at a higher price than home produced food. Much privately produced
food, particularly milk, is not tested and may contain radioactivity above the
control values. In addition, country people appear to be increasingly likely to
ignore restrictions on consuming forest products. Thus, in spite of radioactive
decay and other natural processes that are reducing the environmental
radioactivity levels, doses for a proportion of the population may be increasing.
While the majority of the affected population is receiving 1 mSv/year or less per
year, a significant minority may be receiving annual doses of up to 5 mSv a year.
Box 3.1: Major behavioural and lifestyle factors influencing exposure to radiation
*
Consumption of forest products: berries and mushrooms
*
Consumption of wild game and fish
*
Consumption of locally produced food, especially milk and meat
41
Final: 25.01.02
*
Spending significant proportion of time outdoors
*
Using decentralised water supply systems, especially shallow wells
*
Decentralised house heating using firewood
*
Familiarity with, and attitude to, risk factors and local information on radioactive contamination
Promoting Ecological Recovery
3.16
The underlying trends in environmental contamination can scarcely be influenced
by policy measures; however, the influence of this contamination on humans can
be controlled to a large extent. In the short and medium-term, the health and
economic impacts of contamination depend more upon policy, and the capacity to
implement policy, than on natural environmental processes. Current policies will
also influence the long-term future of the region (after radioactivity has
significantly declined) insofar as they affect the future human, environmental and
economic capital of the region. In other words, the health and economic impacts
of environmental contamination depend upon political and economic changes.
3.17
The effectiveness of any of these policies most critically depends upon the
existing capacity at local, regional and national levels. At the national level,
responsibility for dealing with the consequences of the Chernobyl accident has
typically been spread between different agencies, with overall co-ordination in the
hands of the Ministries for Emergency Situations. Special Chernobyl departments
in the respective Region administrations are responsible for much of the delivery
of Chernobyl related programmes such as resettlement and decontamination.
3.18
The capacity to address Chernobyl issues in all three countries has been
significantly strengthened during the last fifteen years. A relatively strong
capacity exists at the national level in monitoring, research and education with a
strong build-up of instrumentation and skills. This has continued up to the present
time with data, knowledge and experience accumulating in centres of excellence.
Examples of this are the Kiev Radioecology Institute, the Science and Technology
Division of the Exclusion Zone, and the Typhoon Institute in Obninsk. In
contrast, many of the facilities created at the local level in the late 1980s and the
early 1990s have shown signs of decline due to lack of funding and qualified
personnel. Some have been closed down and others operate at less than full
capacity. For example, the Mission visited out-stations involved in monitoring
food products which lacked the resources to carry out their functions. Many of
these have closed, making it difficult for local people to obtain the documents
they need to sell produce in the towns.
42
Final: 25.01.02
Table 3.4. Environmental issues in different Zones affected by the Chernobyl
Accident
Contamination
level by 137Cs,
Ci/km2
The nature of environmental issues
Major state policies
1-5
Radiation does not pose serious health risks to any
particular group. Economic activities may be
hindered by indirect association with Chernobyl.
Additional
radiation
monitoring. Extended social
protection of the population.
5-15
Radiation may pose risks to small high risk groups.
Economic activities hindered by Chernobyl name
and contamination of some products. Local capacity
undermined by outmigration of skilled people
Radiation monitoring. Social
protection. Countermeasures
in agriculture
15-40
Radiation may pose risks to small high risk groups
while average individual doses more often exceed
legal limits. Economic activities hindered by
frequent contamination of products, association with
Chernobyl, restrictions on forestry, agriculture and
other activities. Local capacity suffers severely from
socio-economic decline
Resettlement.
Radiation
monitoring.
Social
protection. Countermeasures
in agriculture and forestry.
Forest and water resource
management
Exclusion zone
Risk of forest and peat bog fires threatening
radioactive contamination of larger areas. Security of
waste disposal sites and abandoned villages
Forest and water resources
management. Restrict access.
Research on migration and
effects of radiation.
Effectiveness of control measures
3.19
The initial radiation protection measures adopted in response to the Chernobyl
accident in the USSR in the mid-1980s aimed to limit the individual life-time
exposure to 350 mSv (1000 mSv = 1Sv). This would mean limiting the annual
dose to under 5 mSv. Subsequently, this threshold was made stricter and a
number of measures initiated to reduce the individual dose to under 1 mSv/year.
This has led to the setting of control values for caesium and strontium in food
products at quite low values. The target values are achieved by discarding
products which do not meet the standard and by the use of various dose reduction
techniques such as potassium fertiliser, and ferrocyanide fodder supplements for
cattle. Enforcing these measures required a significant increase in the capacity for
the radiological monitoring of food products. The measures undertaken appear to
have gone some way to reducing individual doses and maintaining the confidence
of urban dwellers in the safety of food products in the shops.
Table 3.5: Technical measures for controlling radioactive contamination
Policy area/objective
Examples of countermeasures and notes
Constraining presence of people
in contaminated areas
Resettlement (significantly scaled down in recent
years); restriction of access to the exclusion zone
(fencing, roadblocks, etc.)
43
Final: 25.01.02
Policy area/objective
Examples of countermeasures and notes
Land and water management
Restriction of forestry and agriculture on
contaminated lands; forest management and fire
prevention; water and wetland management
Countermeasures in agriculture
Improving pastures; introduction of additional
fertilisers and liming, where necessary; application
of food additives absorbing radiation (e.g.
ferrocyanides); selection of appropriate crops.
Reduction of radioactivity in the
immediate human environment
Cleaning up houses, removal of upper level of soil
in courtyards, installing connections to gas lines to
reduce usage of firewood for heating, installing
centralised water supply systems
Control
of
radioactive
contamination of foodstuffs
Setting standards for radioactive contamination of
foodstuffs; systematic monitoring at place of
production and in distribution network; discarding
contaminated products or using them for non-food
purposes. Providing compensation to buy "clean"
food
Education and information
Publication and dissemination of information
materials (leaflets, brochures, etc.) with specific
information on local contamination and advice on
reducing exposure to radiation. Dissemination of
information through the mass-media. Advice for
households
where
members
manifest
accumulation of large amounts of radioactivity*
Source: interviews and observations July-August 2001: * - e.g. in Narodichi, Zhitomir
Region, Ukraine.
3.20
The policy of all three countries has been to relocate all people living on
territories with contamination by 137Cs exceeding 15 Ci/km2 or dose exceeding 1
mSv/year. Priority resettlement was implemented for territories with
contamination exceeding 40 Ci/km2 or doses of 5 mSv/year. Voluntary
resettlement from less contaminated territories was also legally guaranteed. For
example, according to the current Russian legislation, mandatory relocation is
carried out for communities where the average individual annual dose exceeds 5
mSv. If this dose exceeds 1 mSv, the individuals are entitled to voluntary stateaided relocation. These policies and their subsequent development into a set of
measures for land, water and natural resource management have been largely
effective in reducing the collective dose. There seem to have been significant
achievements in controlling forest fires in contaminated areas and in restricting
unauthorised access to territories that are highly contaminated.
3.21
The resettlement policies, however, have never fully reached their objectives.
Hundreds of thousands of people still live in territories officially designated as
unsuitable for habitation. The majority of these people are not subject to
44
Final: 25.01.02
significant health risks from radioactive contamination. However, they may
suffer severe socio-economic and psychological pressures. Evacuation and
resettlement, especially immediately following the accident, probably very
significantly reduced the collective dose. However, the effectiveness of the
measure declines as time goes by and negative effects may start to outweigh the
benefits, especially if other potential uses of the resources involved are taken into
account. Resettlement appears to have been least successful when implemented
inconsistently, leaving significant numbers of people behind in villages
designated for evacuation. Currently, resettlement continues, though at a minimal
scale. However, some of those most at risk (for example, the poorest sections of
the rural population) often do not want to move.
3.22
While effective in reducing the collective dose, the restrictions on land use
undermined the economies of agricultural communities and necessitated large
additional subsidies from the centre to support the proper maintenance of
abandoned land and forests. These strategies could be made more efficient and
sustainable if alternative uses of the excluded territories were more systematically
considered. For example, wetlands and forest ecosystems can be used for
biodiversity conservation purposes and as a focus for scientific tourism. A similar
argument applies to the unique and rich cultural landscape.
3.23
Sound strategic management of land and other natural resources requires a strong
capacity for long-term planning and management at the regional level. By and
large capacity is, at present, insufficient to deal with the complex set of problems
involved. Certain environmental management issues, such as flood control on
contaminated territories, require stronger trans-boundary co-ordination and cooperation. For example, seasonal flooding of pastures and meadows in Belarus
benefits agriculture there, but leads to radioactivity leaching from the soil and
causing contamination downstream in Ukraine.
Agricultural countermeasures
3.24
The effectiveness of countermeasures in agriculture depends on the level and
character of contamination (for example, uptake of 137Cs is controlled more easily
than uptake of 90Sr) as well as the consistency with which a particular measure is
applied. From the point of view of protecting critical groups, only a narrow range
of countermeasures (such as improving private pastures and distributing fodder
fortified with materials that absorb radioactive substances) are effective. From
the point of view of overcoming environmental constraints to economic
development, only those countermeasures which allow production at competitive
costs can be considered effective. Unfortunately, many countermeasures require
large subsidies or the final produce is too expensive to sell.
3.25
Many of the clean technologies were unsuitable for application in the private
agricultural sector. Naturally, the situation in the private sector was not a major
consideration under the centrally planned economy in the first five years after the
45
Final: 25.01.02
accident. However, private agriculture is a source of serious health risks and also
the key to alleviating rural poverty. Its increasing importance today means that
the use of countermeasures needs to be considered. The issue is not
straightforward. Subsidies to encourage the use of clean technologies in the
collective and state sectors have been falling in recent years. Reversing this trend
is likely to be difficult, as can persuading country people to use food supplements
and fertilisers. In addition, the question of which techniques are most appropriate
for use by smallholders needs to be more fully explored.
3.26
The relevant research and development capacity is relatively strong and
significant field experience exists in applying various countermeasures. However,
the overwhelming majority of these have been subsidised and the capacity for
evaluating their effectiveness in economic terms, promoting them and developing
new measures seems to be lacking. Developing this capacity is becoming a
priority as state subsidies decline. Not only have radiological controls failed to
reduce the exposure of high-risk groups to radiation from privately grown food
and forest products sufficiently, they have also meant that much produce from
contaminated areas cannot be sold. This has further depressed economic activity
and forced people to consume a larger share of contaminated products locally,
increasing their exposure to radioactivity.
Public information and the radiation hazard
3.27
Public information and education initiatives have been among the least
consistently planned and least effective measures. Information campaigns have
frequently been conducted in isolation from other activities and have generally
involved a one-way top-down process. Information on radiological protection has
often not been linked to explanation of the health effects of radiation. The result
has been a confused perception of radiation and its effects among all sections of
society. Widespread ignorance exists as to how best to minimise exposure to
radiation. For example, one 10-year-old Belarusian boy, who had been taught
about the dangers of radiation in school, told the Mission that the best way to
avoid exposure was to “run and hide in the forest”.
3.28
Strong anxiety and fear of radiation exists, compounded by mistrust of official
information and an inability to interpret the available data. In other words, people
have an inadequate perception of radiation risks and an excessively pessimistic
perception of their own capacity to control them. A well-educated resident of
Slavutich in Ukraine told the Mission: “We’re afraid to check the contamination
levels of berries and mushrooms that we pick. We don’t want to know!”
3.29
There is a strong capacity for public and school education in the environmental
area at national level in all countries. For example, the National Centre for
Environmental Education in Kiev has a world-class capacity in teaching children
environmental knowledge and related skills. At the same time, the corresponding
local capacity in the affected territories is declining. Thus, the Young Naturalists
46
Final: 25.01.02
Station in Narodichi, Ukraine, has been closed down following the decline in the
population of the area resulting from the Chernobyl accident.
3.30
There have also been a number of successful non-governmental initiatives in the
field of information and education. For example, the Radimichi-Chernobyl
Children NGO from Novozybkov, in the Bryansk region of Russia, has been
organising an educational and health summer camp for several years. This has
attracted talented young teachers and students to work with disabled children and
young people from the area. This activity has been supported by voluntary groups
from Germany. Among donor funded initiatives, the European Community’s
ETHOS and ENVREG projects provide an important model of how technical
assistance can be used to promote community based programmes involving
environmental education.
Box 3.2: Successes and failures of environmental policy
Achievements of the response to the Chernobyl accident have included:
*
*
*
*
reducing collective dose by technical, administrative, and economic measures;
Significantly improving scientific understanding of the possible causes, scenarios
and consequences of accidents on nuclear power plants;
Improving preparedness to deal with consequences of nuclear accidents, including
understanding of the effectiveness of different protective measures.
Building the national capacity in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine to deal with
contamination of the environment by radioactive material, including development
of expertise, instrumentation and institutions.
Failures have included:
*
*
*
*
*
3.31
a significant number of rural people in high risk groups are still exposed to
substantial and, probably, increasing doses of radiation;
environmental contamination still imposes significant economic constraints
associated with a variety of protective measures, many of which are not effective
in the new economic and political conditions;
economies and social structures in affected communities are deteriorating,
alongside an apparent increase in poverty;
the activities undertaken so far have failed to increase trust and reduce anxiety.
low local capacity to deal with health, economic and environmental challenges.
Despite the natural process of radioactive decay, the major pollutants of
Chernobyl origin will continue to pose a hazard to health for decades to come.
However, some studies indicate that the area of territory with the highest level of
contamination will decline fastest. For example (according to Vakulovsky 2001),
while in 1986 580 km2 of the Russian Federation were contaminated by 137Cs in
excess of 40 Ci/km2, there will be no territories with such a level of contamination
by 2006 (see Table 3.6). Some long-lived isotopes such as plutonium 239 and
Americium 241 will stay in the environment for many thousands of years, though
47
Final: 25.01.02
fortunately they are almost exclusively confined to the zone adjacent to the
Chernobyl Plant (see Germenchuk 2001).
Table 3.6: Projected changes in radioactive contamination of territories of
Russia and Belarus in the period 1986-2046
Levels of contamination by
137Cs
Projected decline in the area of the contaminated territory
between 1986 and 2046, times
Belarus*
Russia**
1-5 Ci/km2
≈ 1.8
≈5
5-15 Ci/km2
≈4
≈4
>15 Ci/km2
>10
≈ 26
Total > 1 Ci/km2
≈ 2.4
≈ 5.2
Source: * - Germenchuk 2001, ** - Vakulovsky 2001 supplemented by calculations by A.
Cherp
3.32
In summary, therefore, it appears that the main threat to health from current and
future exposure to radiation concerns a distinct group of country dwellers who in
live in contaminated areas (see Table 3.4), produce their own milk and depend to
a significant extent on wild mushrooms, berries and game. Many of these people
have very low incomes and have little choice as to their diet. In these
circumstances, education is likely to have little or no effect unless it is combined
with measures to enable them to increase their household incomes and to adopt
measures to reduce their intake of radio-nuclides, through soil treatment
techniques and animal feed supplements.
Section 4.0: Health
Current health situation
4.01
The health and well-being of populations in the affected regions is generally very
depressed. As is true throughout the Former Soviet Union, life expectancy is low
not only as compared with Southern and Western Europe, North America and
Japan, but also with a number of countries from the developing world. Life
expectancy for men in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, for example, is some ten
years less than in Sri Lanka, which is one of the twenty poorest countries in the
world and is in the middle of a long drawn out war. Overwhelmingly the most
important reason for this is the combination of poverty, poor diet and living
conditions, and lifestyle factors such as tobacco and alcohol use. These factors
may also, to some degree, be reinforced in the affected areas and communities by
the psychosocial effects of the accident. Cardiovascular disease and trauma
48
Final: 25.01.02
(accidents and poisonings) are the two most common causes of death followed by
cancer (this situation is not confined to the Chernobyl affected regions). Most
doctors when asked what measures would most improve the health of the
population said improved diet and living conditions
4.02
A well-established increase in thyroid cancer diagnosed in children and
adolescents poses a major problem for health services, particularly in Belarus and
Ukraine. While the disease is not generally fatal, the treatment is expensive and
demanding upon resources. The populations in the affected regions also suffer
from endemic goitre (enlarged thyroid gland) ranging from mild to severe, due to
a deficiency of iodine in the diet. Iodine deficiency (ID) as well as affecting the
thyroid gland, diminishes the IQ. As well as its negative consequences for IQ,
iodine deficiency is also known to increase the risk of absorption of radioactive
iodine by the thyroid gland. The population’s exposure to radioactive iodine,
especially in the months following the accident, was enhanced because iodine
deficiency led to the uptake of the radioactive iodine, mainly through drinking
contaminated milk.
4.03
In many settlements visited by the Mission living conditions were far from
conducive to good health. Thus, the perception held by local doctors that there
had been a general increase in morbidity from non-oncological conditions, such as
cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, may be well-founded. Concerns
expressed by doctors over specific health effects allegedly related to radiation
exposure, either since the accident (such as congenital conditions in new births) or
in comparison with trends before the accident were generally not based on
statistical evidence but on subjectively perceived trends. This, however, is not a
reason to dismiss these claims.
4.04
Healthcare provision in the affected communities suffers from many of the
problems that affect care in other predominantly rural areas of the three countries.
The mission met many dedicated and well-qualified doctors and health workers.
In contrast, equipment and buildings, such as hospitals and clinics, were often old
and in a poor state of maintenance. It was evident that access to appropriate
medicines was an almost universal problem. Although those registered as victims
of Chernobyl have the right to free medical treatment, for others, the cost of even
simple medicines could be an insuperable barrier to treatment for a wide range of
conditions. In addition, many of the medicines that were available were herbal
remedies rather than internationally recognised pharmaceuticals.
4.05
Many districts experienced difficulties in attracting doctors to work in
contaminated areas, mainly because of isolation and lack of suitable housing but
allegedly also to some degree because of the perceived risks of living in such
areas. However, patient to doctor ratios reported to the Mission were usually
about 300 to 1, which is high by international standards. In the smaller, more
remote, settlements the full range of specialists was not available. This was
especially a problem for those too poor to travel to district or regional centres,
which might be over a hundred kilometres distant.
49
Final: 25.01.02
4.06
In a number of centres, the Mission saw examples of sophisticated equipment
which had been donated by international voluntary organizations and charities. In
some cases the equipment was being used in inappropriate ways or in
circumstances which were less than ideal. In one hospital, for example, bone
marrow transplants were being carried out without due attention being paid to the
overriding need to ensure a sterile environment. In several clinics and hospitals,
donated equipment could not be used for lack of materials or appropriately trained
staff. These examples illustrated a recurring problem with one-off donations of
capital equipment: that without continuing support in the form of training,
maintenance and consumables, much or all of the potential of the equipment is
wasted.
4.07
Despite the strong tradition of primary health care in the Soviet Union, a large
discrepancy appeared to exist between the resources available for a minority of
prestigious clinics and hospitals, mainly in urban centres, and provision in rural
areas and smaller communities. It appeared that the issue of Chernobyl had in
certain respects distorted the pattern of spending on health. Resources sometimes
appeared to be focused on high cost facilities concerned with the health effects of
radiation, and on mass screening, rather than on preventative medicine and
community based care which could arguably yield better results in terms of curing
disease and promoting good health.
4.08
It is well established that the populations in the affected areas exhibit strongly
negative attitudes in self-assessments of health and well-being and a strong sense
of lack of control over their own lives. Associated with these perceptions is an
enhanced perception of the dangers to health of exposure to radiation. On the
question of psychological health, judgements are necessarily very subjective.
However, there is clearly a strong concern in the affected populations for health
and a widespread belief that exposed people are in some way condemned to a
shorter life expectancy. The Mission spoke to one overweight woman in her late
fifties who suffered from high blood pressure. When asked whether she had tried
to reduce her consumption of salt and fatty food, she replied: “Why should I? I’m
a liquidator, I will die soon whatever I do”. Such feelings also are linked to a loss
of initiative to solve the problems of sustaining an income and to dependency on
assistance from the state.
4.09
The system of Chernobyl related benefits has created expectations in terms of
payments and advantages and has undermined the capacity of the individuals and
communities concerned to tackle their own economic and social problems.
Studies carried out by the Institute of Sociology in Kiev indicate that 80% of
respondents living in areas with a guaranteed right to resettlement expect
“financial assistance and special medical treatment”. Among resettlers, 84%
expect “special medical treatment” and 71% claim unemployment allowance.
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Final: 25.01.02
4.10
The health situation encountered in the populations living in the affected
territories is thus a complex product of inputs ranging from radiation induced
disease, through endemic disease, poverty, poor living conditions, primitive
medical services, poor diet, and the psychological consequences of living with a
situation that was frightening, poorly understood and over which there seemed to
be little control.
Claims and counter claims
4.11
In the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident many claims have been made of
diverse health effects among people who were evacuated, those living in
contaminated regions and among recovery workers. Most of these effects have
not been associated in the past with radiation exposure and are treated sceptically
by many experts in radiation medicine. These claims and counter claims are a
cause of widespread confusion and distress in the affected communities and
beyond. They also lead to resources being used in a less than optimal manner. It
is important, therefore, that the evidence be appraised comprehensively and
honestly and that, as far as possible, broad agreement be reached on which health
effects are known to be linked to the accident.
Box 4.1: Estimating radiation risks
Exposure to ionising radiation is a part of everyday life through the natural background radiation from soil,
air, food, water and the sun. Typically, the annual dose is 2mSv but can be substantially more in some
places, for example, where the natural radioactive gas radon is present in dwellings or where the soil
contains radioactive isotopes. The study of populations exposed to different levels of natural background
has not enabled the risks of such exposures to be determined directly. It has been necessary to study
populations exposed to much higher doses to determine risks to health. The exposure from Chernobyl can
be regarded as similar to the component of natural radiation not due to radon and thus of carrying similar
risks.
The principal source of risk data has come from studies on the survivors of the atomic bombings in Japan.
Here the doses were generally large (deriving from the “flash” rather than any fallout) and delivered in a
fraction of a second. Nearly 100,000 exposed persons were recruited into the so called Life Span Study
(LSS) and from their experience and a knowledge of the doses they received, the health risks of exposure to
ionising radiation can be estimated.
Initially an excess of leukaemias (blood cancers) was observed in Japan occurring only a few years after the
exposure. Much later (in the early 1970s) an excess of solid cancers was seen and even more recently it has
been noted that certain non-cancer disease (heart disease for example) are found to be related to the dose
received. No association with hereditary disease in the children of the survivors has so far been detected.
From these studies, the risk of fatal cancer is estimated to be about 10% per cent per Gray and that of noncancer disease about half this value. These risks are sufficiently well determined for the WHO to classify
ionizing radiation as an established carcinogen. The risk values derived from the LSS are broadly supported
by many other studies on, for example, patients exposed to radiation either for diagnosis or therapy.
However, the exposure to natural background radiation is not exactly comparable to that in Japan because
doses are much lower and delivered over much longer times. There is an international scientific consensus
that such low dose and dose-rate exposures are not without risk, but that the risk is too low to be
statistically detected. Thus, a factor is employed to interpret the risk of such exposures from the LSS data.
This factor, called the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) is generally taken to be 2 although
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Final: 25.01.02
the validity for this value has been challenged and a value of unity may be more realistic. Hence, the risk
of fatal cancer from Chernobyl type radiations is assumed to be 5%/Gy. In this case 1Gy = 1 Sv.
4.12
An important step towards creating the basis for an international consensus on the
health effects of the accident was taken by the international conference “Fifteen
Years After the Chernobyl Accident. Lessons Learned”, which was held in Kiev
in April 2001. This conference was organised by the relevant Ministries and
Committees from the three affected countries together with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, the European Commission and a number of international
and national expert bodies. The Report of the Conference summarises an agreed
view of the health effects of the accident. While reached by an entirely different
route, the findings of the Conference are broadly in line with the findings of the
present UN Mission as reflected in this Report.
4.13
Much is still not known about the biological effects of radiation. Ionising
radiation is the direct cause of health detriment, both cancer and non-cancer
morbidity and mortality, but there is little consensus in the scientific community
as to the consequences, qualitative or quantitative, of exposures such as those
arising from the Chernobyl accident. All that is certain is that some effects may
be delayed in their appearance for up to several decades after the exposure. More
research is needed, and it will only become possible to answer many important
questions with the passage of time. With that proviso, however, it remains true
that existing knowledge can throw a great deal of light on which health
phenomena do, and which do not, result from the Chernobyl accident. In
particular it is important to identify a number of factors that have contributed to
the current confusion. For example, it has often been claimed that falling life
expectancy, and indeed declining population, in the affected areas largely or
entirely results from the effects of radioactive fallout from the accident.
4.14
Ukraine, Belarus and Russia for example, have declining populations, with death
rates exceeding birth rates by a significant factor. These phenomena have
occurred throughout the Former Soviet Union and therefore cannot be a result of
Chernobyl. In reality, they are a consequence of factors such as emigration and
the difficult economic circumstances facing these countries, which have led to
increased ill-health and caused young couples to defer having children.
Demographic factors have contributed strongly to the pattern of morbidity and
mortality in the affected areas. Large numbers of young people, in particular,
have moved away, leaving a population dominated by older people. This in turn
has radically altered factors such as the ratio of births to deaths and the pattern of
disease. Several of the chief doctors of the districts visited by the Mission pointed
out this factor as the key to understanding the health statistics of their areas.
4.15
A further source of confusion is the so-called screening effect. Since the
Chernobyl accident, health care resources have been focused on the affected
communities. Large-scale screening programmes have been introduced for the
main affected areas and groups, but not for the population of the rest of the
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Final: 25.01.02
countries concerned. The result has been that cases of cancer and other medical
conditions have been identified and included in the statistics, some of which
would otherwise never have come to light.
Box 4.2: The physiopathological effects of radiation exposure
Ionising radiation absorbed by the body’s cells is capable of breaking chemical bonds, so causing damage
to the genetic material contained in the cell. This damage may lead to loss of cells and early, so called
deterministic, effects in the body’s tissues, or to changed genetic properties leading to so called stochastic
effects such as cancer and inherited disease. In addition, other non-cancer diseases have been observed in
irradiated populations, the causes of which are not understood. The most prominent deterministic effect
following the Chernobyl accident was the death of 28 highly exposed individuals from acute radiation
sickness within 4 months of exposure. (In addition, up to the end of 1998 eleven others have died). Some
of the more highly exposed persons involved in clean-up after the accident may suffer from cataract of the
eye, another deterministic effect. Less highly exposed populations will not be at risk of deterministic
effects but may suffer late onset stochastic effects such as cancer, or pass damage to future generations.
There is some, still controversial, evidence of inherited genetic damage, but the health consequences that
might stem from it are not clear.
Considerable controversy exists over the magnitude of the stochastic effects in relation to absorbed dose,
of exposure to ionising radiation, especially where low doses and low dose-rates, as apply in the
circumstances of the Chernobyl accident, are concerned. All that is certain is that some effects may be
delayed in their appearance for up to several decades after the exposure.
Specific health issues: thyroid cancer
4.16
First reports of an excess of thyroid cancer in children were published in The
International Chernobyl Project, which was coordinated by the IAEA with the
participation of other UN agencies including FAO and WHO. This was initiated
in 1989 at the request of the Soviet Union to address the claims of ill health
arising from the accident. This report was published in 1991 and reported that no
link between the health status of the population and radiation had been found.
The report however did refer to the fact that local physicians had identified 20
thyroid cancer cases in the period up to the end of 1990 and concluded that “there
may be a statistically detectable increase in the incidence of thyroid tumours in
the future”. Given the rarity of childhood thyroid cancer, this finding in Ukraine
should have been a warning signal of what was to come.
4.17
In 1992 the European Regional Office of WHO visited Minsk to investigate
claims of increased childhood thyroid cancer incidence, mainly in children from
the Gomel region. Although these claims were initially greeted with scepticism it
is now clear that there has been a very marked rise in thyroid cancer in those who
were children at the time of the accident. A recent United Nations Scientific
Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation report (UNSCEAR 2000)
acknowledges 1,800 cases of thyroid cancer in children residing in the affected
area up to the end of 1998, although others claim that this is an underestimate. A
conservative estimate of the number of cases of thyroid cancer occurring over the
lifetimes of those exposed in childhood in the affected areas is 6 to 8,000 in the
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Final: 25.01.02
three countries. Claims have been made of higher numbers diagnosed but these
include cases diagnosed in those exposed as adults.
4.18
This increase represents a unique situation in which a single cause, at a defined
time, has resulted in such a large increase in a specific cancer. Much remains to
be learned about the ultimate consequences, including the final number of cases.
Previous experience of the irradiation of the thyroid gland indicates that cases
related to the exposure will continue to occur for at least 50 years after exposure.
The principal reason why the 1,800 cases can be unequivocally attributed to
radiation exposure from the accident is the rarity of the disease in children, in
whom most of the cases have occurred. For example, in some settlements in the
Gomel region the incidence rates in the mid 1990s were up to 200 times that
associated with the “sporadic” incidence rate. These cancers are associated with
exposure to the radioactive isotopes of iodine, which concentrate in the thyroid
gland, although this is still contested by some.
Figure 4.1: Thyroid cancer in children under 15 years of age at diagnosis.
Number of cases diagnosed
100
75
Russia
Belarus
Ukraine
50
25
0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year of Diagnosis
4.19
In response to the situation encountered in Minsk, namely a substantial (in relative
terms) increase in a rare disease, the European Regional Office of WHO set up the
International Thyroid Project to assist Belarus in dealing with monitoring,
diagnosis and treatment issues. This increase in childhood thyroid cancer was not
uncovered as a result of screening (except insofar as the iodine deficiency
problem had resulted in surveillance through annual palpation of the thyroid).
Under the Project, iodine status was regarded as crucial to the further
development of thyroid cancer in the population. A survey of iodine status was
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Final: 25.01.02
commenced in Belarus and subsequently in the other two countries, as a means to
develop a policy for iodine supplementation. Other projects within the
International Thyroid Project included a joint three-country database for thyroid
cancer, the assessment of the cost effectiveness of screening for thyroid cancer
and the development of locally produced thyroid hormone test kits. The Project
closed in 2000 without having completed its work. A number of other
international bodies have also supported thyroid cancer related projects. In 19992000, for example, IAEA supported a project to improve the diagnosis and
treatment of radiation induced thyroid cancer in children in Ukraine.
4.20
There is a continuing need to treat thyroid cancer, especially in those who were
under 18 at the time of the accident, and to provide clinical follow up with thyroid
hormone treatment. Belarus still relies on assistance from abroad for up to 30%
of its patients. A substantial number of these patients are being treated for
metastases on the lung, which have proved refractory to treatment with 131I. For
all patients who have had total thyroidectomy follow-up medication is required
for the remainder of their lives. Fewer thyroid cancers have occurred in the
Russian Federation than in Belarus and Ukraine, and accuracy of diagnosis has
been questioned in a proportion of these cases. Nevertheless an extensive
screening programme is operated in the contaminated territories by mobile units
from Obninsk. This includes screening of adults as well as children. The Mission
heard conflicting views on the adequacy of the support offered to victims of
thyroid cancer. Further investigation is needed as a basis for a strategy to ensure
the long-term well being of the people concerned. In view of their needs and the
history of the issue, the international community should accept a share of
responsibility for ensuring that the necessary resources are available to guarantee
that they continue to receive proper care.
4.21
The issue of iodine deficiency is of great importance to the health of children in
general because it depresses IQ, and for those exposed to radio-iodine in
particular, as it is likely to accelerate the development of latent thyroid cancer. In
1991 it was clear that the affected regions contained areas of mild to severe iodine
deficiency resulting in a high prevalence of goitre. As part of the International
Thyroid Project, surveys were initiated in the three countries as the basis for a
policy to correct iodine deficiency through dietary supplementation. The analysis
of the data from the survey needs to be completed and evaluated so that it can be
used to develop a policy on iodine supplementation in the affected territories.
4.22
UNICEF has been a strong advocate in all three countries of the elimination of
iodine deficiency through universal salt iodisation. The overall situation is far
from satisfactory. Universal salt iodisation has proved its effectiveness over
decades in many countries. In the Russian Federation UNICEF has supported the
development of a communication and social mobilisation strategy to achieve and
sustain it. Since most salt comes from kitchen salt rather than processed food
(consumption of processed food is relatively low in these countries), UNICEF has
advocated the mandatory iodisation of kitchen salt. Current regulations only
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Final: 25.01.02
promote voluntary use of iodised salt and penetration of iodised salt remains at
only 15 to 30%.
4.23
A scheme initiated by the Radiology Research Centre in Obninisk is marketing an
organic iodine compound, "iodo-casein", for incorporation into bread milk and
even vodka. The bread is said to be widely available but it was not clear to what
extent it is being bought, especially in rural areas. However, there are drawbacks
to this initiative. Multiple sourcing of iodine could lead to over iodisation, which
in an iodine deficient population can result in a transient adverse health effect.
Additionally the Mission was told that as part of the marketing strategy for iodocasein, salt iodisation is being discredited. The promotion of this and other
iodised substances constitute in UNICEF’s view barriers to the adoption of
universal salt iodisation, the most efficient and cost-effective method of
eliminating iodine deficiency disease.
4.24
In Belarus the focus of attention on thyroid disease following the Chernobyl
accident has meant that iodine deficiency is a well recognised public health
problem. However, the extent of penetration is unclear. Although estimates vary,
some suggest that up to 50% of the population consumes iodised salt, mostly the
better-educated population and those in affected areas. The Mission was assured
that schools and hospital canteens used iodised salt exclusively. Management at
the Mosyr salt plant (where the project is supported by the European Union)
reported that they were currently expanding capacity, with assistance from
UNICEF, and believed that the use of iodised salt would rise rapidly over the
coming year.
4.25
Until 2000-2001, the main obstacle to implementation of effective measures to
eliminate iodine deficiency disease in Ukraine was the obsolete concept that
iodine deficiency in this country is limited to eight “Endemic Goitre” western
mountain districts. In the Chernobyl affected regions distribution of iodised salt
was also limited due to fears of inducing certain thyroid disorders. In 2000
UNICEF supported a small scale iodine deficiency disease survey in four districts
that were previously thought to be not “endemic for goitre”. This survey helped
to promote government regulation on universal salt iodisation. Ukraine still has
one of the lowest levels of iodised salt use at the household level – less than 5%.
Specialised registries and screening
4.26
The traditional Soviet approach to events such as the Chernobyl accident was to
place the exposed populations on special epidemiological registries and offer the
registrants health privileges, including annual medical examinations and
population screening for health effects. In contrast, in the West, the approach
adopted is to maintain country wide disease registries as a matter of routine and
carefully assess the cost effectiveness of screening of population groups exposed
to specific risks. The health risks associated with the average Chernobyl
exposures to radiation (exposure of children’s thyroids to radioactive iodine
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Final: 25.01.02
excepted) are most unlikely to be mitigated significantly by annual medical
examinations.
4.27
The policy of mass screening, which is followed in all three countries, needs to be
thoroughly reviewed. The issue is important both in terms of the resources
involved and the well-being of the populations concerned. Broad-based screening
of adults is not a part of mainstream medical provision in most parts of the world
and it can be argued that it may be counter productive for those concerned. While
it intuitively sounds a good idea, such screening consumes scarce financial and
human resources and may reinforce the idea that ill-health is the norm. By
revealing slow growing cancers in older people, which would in many cases never
otherwise become manifest, it can heighten anxiety, lead to unnecessary
operations and distort the health statistics which provide the basis for the planning
of medical services.
4.28
Backed up by proper care, however, the screening of particular at risk groups,
including children, plays an important part in preventing and curing disease.
During the past 15 years considerable efforts have been made by the three
countries, with international assistance (for example from the EU) to strengthen
existing disease registries and initiate new ones. Efforts to assess the cost
effectiveness of the present screening programmes have been made by the
countries as part of the International Thyroid Project. The combined use of
disease registries and a cost effective screening strategy should enable scarce
resources to be redirected to more urgent needs.
The psychosocial dimension
4.29
Over the last fifteen years, it has become increasingly apparent that the accident
has had important psychosocial effects, which, interacting with the other effects,
have had a profound impact on the well-being of the communities concerned.
The origins of the psychosocial effects are complex and relate not only to the
accident itself and the threats that it involved to the other aspects of health, but
also to the impact of the process of resettlement. Uncertainty about the health
consequences has been a key factor for those involved in the clean-up operation as
well as those living in the areas affected by the accident.
4.30
Research carried out in Ukraine indicates that anxiety over the effects of radiation
on health is the most important psychosocial effect of the accident, that such
anxiety is very widespread and shows no sign of diminishing. It also shows that it
is spreading beyond the affected areas and communities into a wide section of the
population. The research suggests that parents are transferring their anxiety to
their children through example and excessively protective care. Some 65% of
adolescents from the affected communities manifested attitudes which the
researchers categorised as pessimistic, far higher than in the population at large.
4.31
Releases of toxic substances, including radioactivity, are associated with stress
that manifests itself in “illness behaviour”, alterations in reproductive behaviour
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Final: 25.01.02
and changes in lifestyle factors, such as diet and tobacco and alcohol use. Such
stress responses are known to be persistent. With time, people under such chronic
stress make the transition from anxiety through depression, to a state of apathy
and fatalism. The combined effect of the many sources of stress is a decline in the
health and well-being of the affected populations, which many will attribute to the
effects of exposure to radioactivity, further fuelling fears and raising stress levels.
The situation encountered by the Mission in the affected territories is the result of
15 years of an unremitting downward spiral of health and well-being (see Fig 4.2).
4.32
The system of Chernobyl related benefits has created expectations of payments
and advantages and has undermined the capacity of the individuals and
communities concerned to tackle their own economic and social problems.
Studies carried out by the Institute of Sociology in Kiev indicate that 80% of
respondents living in areas with a guaranteed right to resettlement expect
“financial assistance and special medical treatment”. Among resettlers, 84%
expect “special medical treatment” and 71% claim unemployment allowance.
Figure 4.2: The Downward Spiral in communities affected by Chernobyl
Low tax base
Unemployment
Inadequate
health/social facilities
Poor nutrition
Desperation due to
lack of economic
opportunities
Weakened, ageing
and outmigrating
workforce
Costs of medical
treatment
Costs of
compensation
Obstacles to
economic
development
Environment has low
priority
Lack of funds to
reduce exposure
Withdrawal of land
Pressure to use
Restriction on agriculture contaminated products
Negative image
Costs of protective
measures
Constraints on
economic activities
Chernobyl accident,
resettlement, compensation
and other response
Radiation-induced disease
Psychological impact
Social disruption
Release of Radioactive
Material
Environment not a priority
Poor awareness and
education
Poor coping capacity
HEALTH AND
SOCIAL CRISIS
4.33
Exposure to radiation
Alteration of traditional
lifestyles
Contamination of the
environment and
foodstuffs
The Institute of Sociology report argues that the Chernobyl accident led to a wide
range of psychological problems including a sense of being a victim; a sense of
social exclusion; lack of initiative, a low level of adaptation to the new
environment and an expectation of external support. Significantly, the state of
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Final: 25.01.02
mind of victims was not connected to their objective living conditions. This
situation has produced a culture in which ill health is the expectation for many
people, including doctors, nurses and teachers; a phenomenon particularly
prevalent where children are concerned.
4.34
In 1990 the WHO conducted an expert group meeting in Kiev to consider the socalled psychosocial implications of the Chernobyl accident. The expert group
found five dimensions of the psychosocial effect. These are listed in Box 4.3. Of
particular significance in the development of the health situation following the
Chernobyl accident were the first dimension (concerning the perception of
radiation as a risk to health and the provision of information relating to those
risks), and the fourth dimension (concerning illness behaviour and the doctor's
response). All five dimensions of the psychosocial effect were clearly evident in
the affected communities, making the psychosocial effect the most pervasive
underlying cause of ill health and lack of well-being. The lack of a clear
consensus on the link between health effects and radiation exposure, the failure of
the scientific community to predict the very visible increase in childhood thyroid
cancer, and the debate that followed, played an important part in creating the
current situation.
4.35
Research carried out by the Institute of Sociology in Kiev highlights some very
significant aspects of the psychology of the affected individuals. The Institute
carries out twice-yearly surveys of different groups, including resettlers,
inhabitants of the affected areas and clean-up workers, as well as control groups.
It is, therefore, able not just to give a snapshot of responses at a particular
moment, but also to track changes in attitudes. This research has produced some
very interesting insights, which provide an important backdrop for policy making.
Box 4.3: Factors involved in the interaction of radiation health risks and the psychosocial effect.
1.
the sociopsychological dimension of the perception of risk involved in radiation and the part that
information policy plays
2.
the sociocultural dimension of displacement (through policies of relocation due to heavy
contamination) and the consequent social disruption of communities
3.
the general pathogenic factor relating to physiological stress reactions to change in lifestyle, such
as dietary habits and the consumption of alcohol
4.
the medical sociological dimension concerning changes in illness behaviour of the population and
in the diagnostic behaviour of doctors
5.
the socioeconomic dimension relating to large scale effects of the Chernobyl accident such as the
closure of nuclear plants and the reversion to other sources of energy as well as the economic
transition following the collapse of the USSR.
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Final: 25.01.02
4.36
The Institute found that distress was highest among resettlers who had moved
away from their original homes as a result of the accident. These people
considered that their lives, and the lives of their children, had been dramatically
changed for the worse by the accident. The passage of time appeared to have
done little to blunt their distress. They had been subjected to a series of shocks:
the accident itself; the discovery of its true extent and nature with Perestroika;
resettlement; the effects of the break up of the Soviet Union, and the subsequent
collapse of living standards and of much of the welfare state. They had developed
an overwhelming sense of helplessness and victimisation. A minority of this
population, mainly young people, reported that they considered that their health
was the most important thing and that they did not wish to return to their villages.
However, more that half of the resettlers stated that they would return to their
homes if they were allowed to, and this proportion did not appear to be declining.
Those over fifty years of age found it most difficult to adapt.
4.37
Somewhat better adapted to their situation were the group of people who
remained in their homes in the affected areas. Six years ago, 80% of this group
said that they wanted to leave. In the latest survey, this proportion had fallen to
20%, with 80% wishing to stay in their homes. Many of those who still wanted
to leave were young people who were concerned about the risks involved in
raising children in a contaminated area. Psychologically the best adapted group
were the so called “self-settlers” who had been evacuated and had then returned
despite the restrictions. These people asserted that the threat from radiation was
not as bad as the authorities claimed. They argued that they wanted to be left in
peace in their homes. The Institute found that economic considerations were not
necessarily the over-riding factor. Cultural arguments, such as a desire to live in
the traditional home near to where ancestors were buried, could be very
important, especially for older people.
4.38
These findings were broadly reflected in what the Mission saw during its visits.
Many of those who were spoken to appeared to have very little confidence in their
own ability to improve their situation. While some, for example, among the selfsettlers were proud of their independence, others were clearly living in
circumstances of deep distress, with little belief in their own or the authorities’
ability improve their circumstances. The Mission also saw much evidence of the
way in which the infrastructure of community life had broken down. Community
institutions from the Soviet era, such as the local houses of culture and
organisations such as the young pioneers, had ceased to function and had not been
replaced by any alternative. In rural areas, state and collective farms had
previously played an important part in community life. In Russia and Ukraine,
these organisations had largely disappeared, although in Belarus they continue to
function albeit in difficult circumstances.
4.39
School and kindergarten education in the affected areas have come under pressure
as infrastructure development has slowed down, particularly in communities
designated for resettlement. In some of the resettlement villages houses had been
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built, but community facilities such as social centres and clinics had been left
unfinished because of lack of resources. Half finished buildings such as these
must add to the sense of abandonment reported by many resettlers.
Rehabilitation
4.40
On the positive side, the Mission also saw several examples of good practice,
which could serve as models for future initiatives. In particular in Ukraine, the
Psychosocial Rehabilitation Centres, originally established with support from
UNESCO, were clearly playing an important role. They had become a focus for a
range of development activities, including support for new voluntary
organisations. One reservation about these centres was that they often gave great
stress to the issue of Chernobyl in a way which would appear to conflict with their
mission of promoting rehabilitation. In some centres large and potentially
frightening pictures of the accident were prominently displayed, in one case
dominating the entrance hall and in another taking the form of an altar. One
worker explained that these were intended to appeal to donors, but it is hard to
believe that they can contribute to the healing process, particularly since many of
the users of the centres were not born at the time of the accident.
4.41
Local and international voluntary efforts were also well in evidence in some of the
affected communities. One group had set up an innovative youth centre in a
former pioneer camp working with young people with disabilities. They had an
impressive record of activities and had established links with several parallel
organisations in Germany. These links were very firmly rooted in the idea of
mutual respect, rather than in the concept of victims and donors. The organisers
had initiated genuine international exchanges, with young people from Germany
staying in the camp and young Russians returning their visits.
Box 4.4: Psychosocial Rehabilitation Centres
In 1991 UNESCO initiated an extensive programme (with funds of $9,000,000 donated by European
countries) to address the psychological and social aspects of the accident. An integral part of this
programme was the setting up of nine Psychosocial Rehabilitation Centres, three in each country.
The Centres seem to have been most successful and sustainable in Ukraine where five are now
functioning with support from the National Ministry for Emergencies. UNESCO phased out the
programme in 1998, but the rehabilitation centres in Ukraine are now receiving assistance from
UNDP.
The centre in Ivankiv in Ukraine, for example, serves a community with a population of 13,000.
The number of people using the centre has continued to rise since it was opened, from 6,907 people
in the first six months of 1996 to 9,878 in the first six months of 2000. Almost half of the people
visiting the centre are children. A survey carried out in 1999 showed that 85% of the adult
population of Ivankiv considered that the Centre had either a medium or a strong impact in the
community.
The Centres offer a range of services which bring together trained community workers and members
of the public. For example, they work with groups of children, young mothers and old people and
provide a focus for a variety of local social cultural and educational activities. The centres appear to
have been most successful where local leadership has taken the initiative in developing new areas of
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Final: 25.01.02
activity to meet local needs. They appear to have been effective in easing some of the psychological
effects of the accident, promoting community cohesion, encouraging voluntary activities and
contributing to better education and information. Their relevance could be enhanced through linking
their activities to local government and directing them more clearly towards development objectives.
4.42
Also impressive was the work of some of the town twinnings, for example, the
link between Svetlagorsk in Belarus and Mendip in the UK (see Box 4.5).
Supporting the activities of initiatives such as these should be a high priority for
the international community. Small amounts of additional resources, in the
context of respect of the autonomy of the partnerships involved, could yield
benefits which would be beyond the reach of conventional donor activities.
4.43
A unique feature of the response to the Chernobyl accident has been the voluntary
initiatives supporting holidays for children from the affected areas in families
abroad. These have become possibly the largest and most sustained international
voluntary welfare programme in human history: a total of several hundred
thousand children have taken part since the accident. Some 60,000 young people
a year from Belarus alone visit countries in Western Europe each year under such
schemes. While there is no consensus in the international health community as to
the claimed benefits in terms of “detoxification”, the visits are undoubtedly
popular in the affected communities. They support the large efforts of the
governments concerned to offset the disadvantages facing these young people.
Box 4.5: International Voluntary Partnerships (IVPs)
The Mission came across many examples of good practice involving the voluntary movement. These
included initiatives by conventional non-governmental organisations (NGOs) such as the larger children’s
charities. They also included projects undertaken by community based international partnerships, such as
town twinnings and links between hospitals and clinics in the affected areas and similar institutions in other
parts of the world. These typically had no paid staff, and were sustained entirely through the commitment of
the individuals concerned. The Mission labelled these initiatives International Voluntary Partnerships (IVPs).
In recent years, the Gomel Regional Economic Development Agency, with support from UNDP and the
Central European Initiative, has organised conferences of IVPs from the affected Region in Belarus every
two years. Some thirty town and city twinnings have taken part in these meetings. The conferences have
revealed that these partnerships have provided a sustainable and cost effective basis for a wide range of
different forms of mutual support and assistance, including humanitarian and technical assistance, training
and educational exchanges.
An outstanding example is provided by the link between Svetlagorsk in the Gomel Region and Mendip
District in the UK. This link is consciously based on the principles of mutual respect and sustainable
development. Since it was established in 1996, it has involved over a thousand people from Svetlagorsk
taking part in training or visiting the UK in connection with a variety of health, educational and civic
development projects. These have included initiatives concerning environmental management, HIV
awareness, cultural exchanges and support for the development of the voluntary sector.
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Final: 25.01.02
4.44
The main downside of the visits is that they may perpetuate inaccurate and
negative stereotypes about life in the affected areas, both in the minds of the
young people and in the host communities. Research carried out by the Kiev
Institute of Sociology suggests that the effects of the visits are beneficial in the
long run. It is crucial, however, that, while maintaining their efforts to the full,
the organisers do everything possible to ensure that the visits and the associated
publicity promote mutual respect and individual development.
4.45
International exchanges are only one element in holiday provision for young
people from the affected areas. In Belarus, for example, all children from the
more severely affected districts are entitled to two months holiday a year provided
by the state. The mission visited one holiday camp run by the Ministry of
Emergencies in the Gomel Region which provided several thousand holiday
months a year. The camp offered health services including dental services,
medical check-ups and massage. It was well equipped and gave the impression of
being a happy and well-organised place for young people to stay.
Role of the international community
4.46
Activities by the international community have been intertwined with the issue of
health in the affected communities since soon after the accident. On the positive
side, very considerable assistance has been given by a range of international
bodies, both public and private. This has not only contributed to resolving health
care problems and to delivering improvements in provision, but has also helped to
tackle the sense of abandonment that many of those affected by the disaster have
described. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has
played an important role in encouraging this assistance. International voluntary
efforts have also played an important part, especially in helping to tackle the
psychosocial dimension of the problem and with the provision of medical
equipment and training, as has the WHO’s International Project on the Health
Effects of the Chernobyl Accident (IPHECA). A very important recent initiative
is the International Thyroid Tissue Bank, which can serve as a model for future
research co-operation involving the three countries.
4.47
There have also been a number of significant areas where the international
community has failed to have a significant impact, or has in some cases even
made things worse. First, it has often given very conflicting messages on the
question of the nature and extent of the health effects of the accident. Particularly
damaging was the delay in acknowledging the relationship between childhood
thyroid cancer and radiation by a number of international bodies in the early
1990s. Second, there has been a lack of coordination, particularly on health
issues, which has led to too much attention being focused on some aspects at the
expense of others. Third, it is also the case that the international community has
tended to concentrate assistance on high visibility projects such as donations of
high technology equipment rather than on helping to improve primary health care,
which is where the greatest need lies. Fourth, the international community has
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Final: 25.01.02
sometimes been at risk of throwing away the potential benefits of its initiatives by
failing to carry through projects to completion, as appears to be the case, for
example, with the International Thyroid Project. Future projects need to take
account of these experiences.
Section 5.0: Economic Development and Household Incomes
Current economic situation
5.01
After ten years of decline, the economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine,
including the affected territories, are now showing clear signs of recovery.
Industrial companies in the Zhitomir Region of Ukraine increased their output by
13% in 2000 and the rate of growth reached 25% during the first three months of
2001. In Russia, Briansk Region has also seen a steady growth in production
since 1999. In the first six months of 2001 output was 20% higher than a year
before. In the Gomel Region of Belarus industrial production rose by 12% in
2000 and further growth was expected in 2001, though at a slower rate.
5.02
Unfortunately, agricultural production has grown very little in the Gomel and
Briansk Regions and farms, whether private as in Russia or publicly owned as in
Belarus, appear unable to play a significant role in increasing rural incomes. In
Novozybkov District in Russia, six former collective farms out of seventeen are
bankrupt, and another seven are unprofitable. Many farms have abandoned
cultivating part of their arable land because of a lack of working capital. Yields
of grain at around 1.5 tons per hectare are very poor.
5.03
In Ukraine, however, the sector is going through a process of profound reform
that is beginning to bringing positive results. Growth was 5% in the Zhitomir
Region of Ukraine in 2000. Some 665 former collective farms in the Region have
been transformed into 713 private farming enterprises and 1,177,700 ha of land
have been distributed to 288,600 people. The number of unprofitable farms
decreased from 98% to 66% in 2000 and regional authorities expect this figure to
fall to below 20% this year.
Economic impact of the Chernobyl accident
5.04
The Chernobyl nuclear accident affected the economies of the three countries and
the regions concerned in many ways and at different levels. In terms of the
impact at national level, it is not possible to estimate the scale of the losses
accurately. Attempts were first made to calculate the financial cost in the early
1990s, but different methods were used. The Government of the Republic of
Belarus estimates that losses over the 30 years following the accident will amount
to $235 billion. The Ukrainian government estimates the loss as $148 billion over
the period from 1986 to 2000.
5.05
Because of difficulties relating to exchange rates during a period of rapid inflation
and other factors, these figures are open to question on a number of grounds.
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Final: 25.01.02
What is clear is that the three countries suffered considerable direct costs in the
form of buildings and equipment that had to be abandoned. They also suffered
very large and on-going costs in terms of the recovery programme, together with
opportunity costs resulting from the diversion of resources away from productive
activities. In the case of Belarus and Ukraine, losses included the balance of
payments cost of purchasing energy which otherwise would have been generated
locally. Ukraine ultimately lost all of the output of the Chernobyl complex, while
Belarus cancelled its nuclear generation programme as a result of the accident.
The categories of losses suffered by the three countries are listed in Box 5.1.
Box 5.1: Losses resulting from the Chernobyl accident
*
*
*
*
Direct damage caused by the accident
Expenditures related to
a) Actions to mitigate the consequences in the exclusion zone
b) Social protection and health care to affected population
c) Research on environment, health and production of clean food
d) Radiation monitoring of the environment
e) Radioecological improvement of settlements and disposal of radioactive waste
f) Resettlement of people and improvement of their living conditions.
Indirect losses relating to the opportunity cost of removing agricultural land and forests from use and
the closure of agricultural and industrial facilities.
Opportunity costs, including the additional costs of energy resulting from the damage and eventual
closure of the Chernobyl complex and the cancellation of Belarus’s nuclear power generation
programme.
5.06
The 1990s was a period of great political, social and economic turmoil in the three
countries. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the economic chaos of 1991
and 1992, social tensions in Russia and Ukraine, the growing economic crisis and
hyper-inflation all exacerbated the effects of the Chernobyl accident in the
countries concerned. One indication of the scale of the economic burden resulting
from the accident is given by the cost of the recovery programmes to the national
budgets. The statistics for Belarus are shown in Table 5.1.
5.07
In Belarus and the Ukraine these expenses have been met from a special
Chernobyl emergency tax. In Belarus, the emergency Chernobyl tax was
introduced in 1992. In 1994 it stood at a rate of 18% of wages for all nonagricultural firms. Even at this point receipts only accounted for 65 % of planned
expenditure. The tax was constantly criticized by businesses for making
Belarusian products uncompetitive. It was later reduced to 12 % and is currently
levied at a rate of 5 %. In Ukraine the Chernobyl tax also faced strong opposition
and was progressively reduced. In Russia, resources were mostly provided by
assigning funds within the national and regional budgets.
Environmental contamination as an economic constraint
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5.08
The consequences of the Chernobyl accident have been addressed through a
number of policies, most of which have had significant economic and social
impacts. Restrictions on economic activities on contaminated areas, particularly
the loss of agricultural land and timber production and restrictions on access were
an important factor. Restrictions on agricultural production affected territories
with contamination exceeding 40 Ci/km2 where all agricultural production was
prohibited. Part of the abandoned land, however, was forested with a view to
reducing migration of radio-nuclides and supplying timber in the distant future.
Extraction of timber for commercial purposes was prohibited from forests on
territories where contamination by 137Cs exceeds 15 Ci/km2. Due to the level of
contamination and the high cost of remedial measures, some agricultural land and
forests have been removed from service for the next 60 to 80 years. The number
of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) per 10,000 inhabitants is markedly
lower in the affected regions than nationally: in Zhitomir Region are 36 SMEs per
10,000 compared to 44 in Ukraine as a whole, while in Gomel Region are
19,compared to 32 per 10,000 in Belarus as a whole.
Table 5.1: Chernobyl expenses as share of national budget in Belarus 1992 to 2000
Year
% of national budget
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
19.9
16.1
10.1
11.5
10.9
9.9
8.9
8.1
6.4
5.3
5.09
As a result of compulsory and voluntary resettlement, 282 rural settlements were
closed in Belarus alone, together with their cultural centres, libraries, schools,
outpatient health care facilities and productive infrastructure. The list of closed
facilities includes production units, houses, roads, heating, electricity and water
supply and sewage networks. Table 5.2 indicates losses in the three countries in
terms of closed agricultural and industrial enterprises and other economic
resources.
5.10
Companies producing food were among the most disadvantaged. The Chernobyl
stigma became a serious obstacle to sales. A Russian milk processing company
told the Mission, for instance, that even if their products are in compliance with
health standards, distributors are reluctant to buy them. More than one third of
industrial output in the Gomel, Zhitomir and Briansk Regions is accounted for by
food processing companies. Efforts will have to be made to overcome the fear of
the Chernobyl label. Private investment can play an important part in this. There
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Final: 25.01.02
are already examples proving that it is possible. For example, the Mission was
told that after being taken over by private investors from Kiev, the Ivankiv milk
processing factory stepped up its marketing effort and doubled production in less
than eight months.
Table 5.2: Agricultural land, forest, enterprises and resources removed from service
Belarus
Russia
Ukraine
Total
Agricultural land (hectaires)
264,000
17,100
512,000
784,320
Forest (hectaires)
200,000
2,200
492,000
694,200
Agricultural and forest enterprises
54
8
20
82
Factories, transport and service enterprises
9
0
13
22
Raw material deposits
22
0
0
22
Demographic impact
5.11
Since the Chernobyl accident, more than 348,000 people have been relocated
away from the most severely contaminated areas, some were evacuated
immediately after the accident, others were resettled several years later. This
completely distorted the demographic pyramid in the most affected regions and
districts. For example, in Ivankiv District, immediately south of the exclusion
zone, 16,500, or 43%, of the 38,000 inhabitants are now pensioners. Table 5.3
indicates the scale of evacuation and resettlement actions undertaken by the
governments.
5.12 In Belarus, the worst affected districts of the Gomel and Mogilov Regions are
among the worst in Belarus in terms of demographic indicators. This will
severely handicap economic recovery in future. Tables 5.4a and 5.4b show that
the population of the Gomel Region dropped by 8% between 1986 and 2000,
while in Khoiniki District it fell by 43%. The rural population declined much
more sharply than the urban population as a whole: by 27% in rural areas of the
Gomel Region compared with a fall in the urban population of 3%. The birth rate
also dropped sharply, almost halving in the Gomel Region between 1986 and
2000. Khoiniki District showed a sharp fall in the birth rate between 1985 and
1987, despite the fact that mass relocation was only launched in 1990/91.
Table 5. 3: Evacuated and resettled people
Evacuated people (1986/1990)
Resettled people (1991 to 2000)
Total
Expecting resettlement
5.13
Belarus
24,000
111,000
135,000
7,000
Russia
3,400
49,000
52,400
Ukraine
91,000
72,000
163,000
4,600
Total
118,400
231,000
350,400
11,600
The lack of young people has had serious implications for the local economies. It
has also had psychological effects. For example, the fact that there were many
more deaths than births encouraged the belief that the areas concerned were
dangerous places to live. District chief executives interviewed during the Mission
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Final: 25.01.02
complained that schools, hospitals, agricultural co-operatives, utility companies
and many other organisations were short of qualified specialists. In Nvozybkov,
in Russia, the Mission was told that the district hospital was 40 % understaffed in
terms of doctors. An entrepreneur in Ivankiv complained that he could not find
wood processing engineers, even for comparatively high wages, despite
widespread unemployment. The decline in the number of young, skilful and
enthusiastic school teachers follows a trend in other rural areas but is more serious
here because of fear of radiation and the lack of young people and social facilities
in the affected areas.
Table 5.4a Demographic indexes in Gomel Region (Belarus) in 1986 and 2000
1986
Inhabitants:
1,677,500
Including:
- Rural population
653,600
- Town population
1,023,900
Birth rate
17.2
Mortality
9.2
Natural population growth
+ 8.0
Life expectancy, years
72.6
2000
1,535,000
475,200
1,059,800
9.7
14.8
- 5.1
67.6
Table 5.4b Demographic indexes Khoiniki District (Gomel Region) in 1986 and 1999
1986
1999*
Inhabitants:
45,850
25,900
Including:
- Rural population
29,450
11,100
- Town population
16,400
14,800
Birth rate
15.2
12.9
Mortality
11.8
19.4
Natural population growth
+ 3.4
- 6.5
Life expectancy
68.3
64.0
* latest available data
5.14 While many of those who remained are poorly skilled, lack of resources has
meant that little has been done to improve their capacity. One exception is
Slavutych, the town built to house the workers from the Chernobyl complex after
the accident. A university in Chernigiv has established subsidiary departments
here because standards of education are high and more than half of the population
is young. Employment in the power plant complex will taper off over many
years as decommissioning continues. This process will also generate new
opportunities, for example in construction. However, retraining will be needed if
local people are to take advantage.
Recovery measures
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Final: 25.01.02
5.15
Concerned with the growing social and economic disparities between
contaminated and clean territories, governments started exploring new measures
in the mid-1990s that would reduce the burden on their national budgets.
Promoting inward investment into large formerly state owned companies became
a priority. However, little progress was made with this policy, in part because of
misinformation relating to the effects of the Chernobyl accident. Mass
privatisation carried out by the governments of Russian Federation and Ukraine in
the 1990s has not brought significant investment to the affected areas. In Belarus,
there has been very little privatisation and only minimal inward investment.
5.16
To promote investment in affected areas, the Ukrainian government has
established a special regime for nine districts and one city in Zhitomir Region
covering 16,000 km2. In Belarus, special economic zones were implemented,
including one in Gomel. Recently discussion has begun on promoting the
rehabilitation of the six most blighted districts. These measures focus primarily
on promoting investment in industries which are located in district centres rather
than in rural communities. In Ukraine the 16 projects that have started are
expected to bring investment of $25 million, saving 495 jobs and creating 1,332
new ones. In general, however, the governments have so far failed to attract
significant amounts of foreign or national investment for the economic
regeneration of the affected areas.
5.17
If an appropriate economic environment could be created, demands on the state
budgets could be considerably reduced. However, until recently economic
development of the affected districts has not been a high priority in Russia or
Ukraine, where they only represent a small proportion of capacity in terms of
industrial and agricultural output. Investment in industrial companies, which are
mainly in the towns, would create new jobs and help to draw in labour from rural
communities where unemployment and under-employment are endemic. Most of
the jobs would go to young people as the majority of the rural population are older
and likely to be unwilling to move, even within their own districts. A study by the
Ukrainian Institute of Sociology indicates that older people in rural areas have a
low capacity to adapt to new social and economic circumstances.
Unemployment
5.18
Official statistics indicate unemployment of between 2 and 3% across the affected
regions of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, which is not higher that in other similar
areas. Interviews during the Mission suggest a higher level of unemployment in
areas where relocated people are concentrated than in contaminated districts, and
widespread hidden unemployment in rural communities. Thus, Brusiliv District
in Ukraine, which is not contaminated and has accommodated large numbers of
resettlers, has 18,100 inhabitants and an active labour force of 7,600. In the
District, 1,175 people are registered in the local job centre, representing an
unemployment rate of 15%. A similar situation applies in other districts with large
resettler populations in Russia and Belarus.
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Final: 25.01.02
5.19
Lack of data makes it difficult to assess hidden unemployment in former
collective farms. However, evidence from other parts of the Former Soviet Union
and Eastern Europe suggest that agricultural reform will lead to a halving of
employment, leaving one worker per 150 hectares of agricultural land instead of
one worker per 25 to 40 hectares as at present. In the case of small rural districts
like Narodichi or Khoiniki such a development could theoretically lead to up to
40% of the labour force becoming unemployed.
Impact on the rural economy
5.20
The agricultural sector has been the area of the economy worst hit by the effects
of the accident. Imposing radiological controls has closed the markets for
foodstuffs and other products from the affected areas. This problem has been
aggravated by the Chernobyl stigma, which has caused better educated urban
consumers to reject products from these areas. As a result, revenues from
agricultural activities have fallen, certain types of production have declined, and
some facilities have closed altogether. In Belarus, where radioactive fallout
removed some of the best arable land, the impact on agriculture has affected the
whole economy. However, although the government has promoted the idea of the
economic rehabilitation of contaminated territories, lack of understanding of how
to conduct an active economic regeneration policy has meant that little has been
done to develop an appropriate strategy.
5.21
The impact of the Chernobyl accident on many rural households in Belarus,
Russia and Ukraine was catastrophic. In the first weeks many were evacuated
with only their personal belongings. A few months later they were allowed to
collect their property, but many of them found their houses plundered. Later
when the process of resettlement started in a more organized way, families were
allowed to take their property with them. They were also given a choice of where
to settle. Even though they were compensated for their losses and were offered
free houses, 75% of resettlers still complain that their “wishes were not taken into
consideration” according to a survey by the Ukrainian Institute of Sociology. It
appears that “the more time has passed since the Chernobyl disaster, the more
people have become discontented with the consequences of relocation and the
way it was carried out” (Prilipko, 2000). Resettlement not only affected the lives
of the resettlers, but also in many cases of the residents of the communities into
which they were moved. Tensions between new and old residents of resettlement
villages was one of the reasons given to the Mission to explain why so many
resettlers wanted to return to their original homes.
5.22
Those who decided to stay in contaminated areas, or were waiting for relocation,
were often forbidden to keep cows because of the risk posed by contaminated
milk. This was the case until recently in the eastern districts of the Briansk
Region. The ban not only restricted their diets, but deprived them of income, led
to them losing their livestock breeding skills and resulted in a decline in the
productivity of their plots because they no longer had manure to serve as
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Final: 25.01.02
fertilizer. The economic crisis of the 1990s made the financial situation of rural
families extremely precarious. Heavily dependent on collective farms, they lost
income and social and economic benefits. Average wages are now $20 per month
and in many cases workers have not been paid in cash for several years. Instead
they are paid with products such as straw and hay or with services such as
ploughing and harvesting. National statistics show that farm workers are the
poorest paid category in the affected countries: 87% of families in the rural
Khoiniky District classified themselves as poor.
5.23
Historically rural households were involved in one main activity - growing
agricultural products; but on two levels. Householders were employed in
collective farms where they received benefits and wages, which constituted their
main source of money income. They also produced food on small plots of land
around their houses which they consumed, sent to relatives in the towns, or sold in
the market. The household activity was never considered a major source of
income. However, householders depended heavily on home production for their
food.
5.24
Domestic animals, and specifically cows, are the basis of the whole household
economy. There is a country saying in these areas that if a family has a cow, the
children will never be hungry. A typical rural household has a small plot of land
adjacent to the house and sometimes an additional plot of up to a hectare outside
the village, together with a cow and a calf, and sometimes a pig and poultry.
Nowadays, some families also keep horses for heavy work in the fields or, if they
are better off, an old tractor. In the Soviet period the collective farms provided
veterinarian services free of charge, and also helped families with ploughing and
harvesting, but these benefits have now largely disappeared. In some resettlement
villages the influx of new residents meant that there was insufficient land
available to give every household an adequate plot on which to grow food. The
Mission was told that this was having a serious effect on the ability of families to
support themselves in some of the villages visited.
Rural initiatives
5.25
Since the beginning of the 1990s, the authorities in Ukraine have encouraged
households to support themselves by easing restrictions on individual plot size
and on the number of domestic animals. These measures have led to an increase
in cultivated land and in the number of farm animals. They have helped to
increase output of some important food products. Households supply a
considerable quantity of food to local markets in Zhitomir Region. They possess a
quarter of agricultural land and produce more than 90% of potatoes and
vegetables and 19% of grain. In Ovruch District, rural households account for
32% of cattle, but their share of production of meat and milk is two times higher
than that of former collective farms. This indicates that in conditions of extensive
agriculture, households are more efficient than collective farms.
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Final: 25.01.02
5.26
This increase of agricultural production by households has also occurred in
Belarus and the Russian Federation. In Khoiniki District in Belarus, the number
of cattle possessed by families almost doubled in the last seven years. In most
affected communities in Gomel Region more than three out of four households
have at least one cow.
In response to external economic, social and
environmental pressures families have developed their own techniques for
survival by setting up small scale agricultural production and exploiting local
resources.
5.27
Once engaged in this process they start to act as family micro-businesses and look
for ways to improve efficiency. Spontaneously, entire villages in Ukraine and
Belarus have become specialised in one or two specific products. In Novi
Ladizhichi (Ivankiv District, Ukraine) many inhabitants are involved in raising
and supplying piglets for the local market, because pastures and agricultural land
are scarce. In resettlement villages in Brusiliv District in Ukraine, family
involvement in producing milk is rapidly expanding. This is due to the existence
of large free pastures and meadows around the settlements. To create a market for
their milk, households in Ladizhichi, a small village close to Ivankiv, invested in a
dairy which enabled them to increase the number of cows from 135 in January
2001 to 143 in July. Alshani (Brest Region, Belarus) and the adjacent villages are
also of great interest. In conditions of land shortage, the inhabitants have
developed family micro-businesses growing spring vegetables and autumn
flowers in small greenhouses on their land plots. These products are supplied to
markets in Minsk, St Petersburg, Brest and Gomel. This activity now supports
over a thousand families in an area where contamination is at the level of 7
ci/kmsq.
5.28
Outside support can play a part in initiating such developments. One example of
how this could be done is provided by a project in a village in the Vetka District
where the Gomel Regional Economic Development Agency is helping villagers to
develop a business raising geese for the market with support from the UK
Department for International Development (DFID). The geese feed themselves in
the water meadows through the summer and can be sold in the autumn for $6 per
head, yielding valuable cash income for the householders. The Gomel based
Radiological Institute is providing advice on how to ensure that the geese are free
from radioactive contamination when brought to market. If successful, this
initiative should help a cluster of village households both to raise their money
incomes and acquire new animal raising and business skills.
Role of the international community
5.29
Economic development is probably the area where assistance from the
international community has so far been least successful. As far as business
development projects are concerned, investors and the main donors have
concentrated on the capital cities and other areas with good growth prospects and
have largely by-passed the affected Regions. In addition, because of difficult
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Final: 25.01.02
political relations between Belarus and major donor countries, normal
programmes of development cooperation have been limited, particularly those
involving assistance to government activities. This has curtailed economic
development projects in the affected areas, as in other parts of the country.
5.30
Such projects as have been undertaken in the affected areas of the three countries
have often produced only disappointing results, for a number of very specific
reasons. First and most obvious, they have often failed to reflect the profound
differences between the pattern of economic life inherited from the Soviet Union
and that which pertains in Western market economies. The belief that rapid
privatisation would rapidly lead to the early emergence of a new class of market
oriented business people led to projects that were not properly rooted in the local
economic and administrative fabric.
5.31
A second problem was that for reasons relating to budget and project development
cycles, donors tended to work to time scales that were far too short in terms of
what they were trying to achieve. For similar reasons many pilot projects have
been carried out, often at a high cost in terms of the benefits, but these have rarely
been rolled out into substantive programmes. A third problem was that projects
tended to be designed by administrators and consultants who knew a lot about
macro-economics and western business practices, but little or nothing about local
and regional economic and community development, even in their own countries.
As a result, business support initatives were sometimes set targets in terms of
achieving self-sufficiency which would have been quite unrealistic even in
Europe or North America, let alone in the far more difficult circumstances of the
Former Soviet Union. This has led to frustration on the donor side and
disappointment and cynicism on the side of the intended beneficiaries.
Box 5.2: International experience in local economic development
To be effective, economic development policies need to be able to act at a number of different levels:
national, regional and local. They also need to be able to mobilise resources on a substantial scale.
While the response in the affected areas needs to be tuned to the particular local conditions, experience
in other parts of the world which have faced economic collapse can provide useful insights into how
recovery can be promoted in the affected areas. In essence the approach needs to build on a realistic
assessment of local strengths and to foster the development of a local leadership spanning local
government and the enterprise sector, which is committed to bringing about the economic
development of the area. Effective support for business start ups and for small and medium size firms
is crucial to this process. Experience in various parts of Europe suggests that an institutional
framework including, for example, a network of local economic development agencies can be useful in
promoting collaboration between the enterprise sector, public administration and potential donors.
Such agencies can also serve as a local source of expertise in business development.
5.32
On the other hand, there have been some areas of real success among initiatives
supported by the international community. Projects supported by a number of
donors, including the European Union and the Central European Initiative,
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Final: 25.01.02
offering training and mentoring for specialists and business leaders, have helped
to break down barriers and provide new ideas for those taking part. Fostering
international contacts is particularly important as far as the Chernobyl affected
areas are concerned because of isolation resulting from fear of radiation. While
several institution-building initiatives have failed completely, others have taken
root. Examples of these are the economic development agencies based in Gomel
(initiated on the basis of a study funded by UNIDO and supported by the EU and
DFID) and in Slavutich (supported by the EU and USAID). These provide locally
rooted expertise and a structure for the promotion of economic development on
the basis of partnership between local government and the enterprise sector. The
EU ETHOS project in the Brest Region of Belarus has explored environmentally
appropriate community and economic development. IAEA and FAO have
supported a large-scale project to develop rapeseed production in the Gomel and
Mogilov Regions of Belarus. The project has demonstrated that good quality
radio-nuclide free edible oil can be produced on contaminated land, creating an
important potential source of income for farmers in the area.
5.33
The experience of the last fifteen years shows that a policy of propping up large
enterprises that lost their markets through the break-up of the Soviet Union cannot
provide a solution to the problems of the affected areas. Nor is simply privatizing
state companies an adequate response. The new approaches that the governments
of the three countries are beginning to explore, involving incentives for investors,
are a step in the right direction. But these policies need to be developed and
refined.
5.34
The areas and communities blighted by the Chernobyl accident need massive
resources in the form of investment if they are to break out of their present state of
poverty and dependency. Neither governments nor the international community
can provide resources on the scale required. Future recovery of the affected areas
will depend on inward investment and on indigenous small and medium sized
businesses with the skills to identify and exploit local comparative advantages and
progressively integrate their activities into wider national and international
markets. The analysis and recommendations in Part I point to some of the ways
that governments and the international community can help to promote this
process.
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Final: 25.01.02
Annex 1: References
1. European Communities and others. 1998. Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe
after the Chernobyl Accident (on a CD-ROM). Luxembourg: Office for
Official Publications of the European Communities.
2. Germenchuk, M. 2001. Radioecological Situation on the Territory of the
Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl NPP Disaster. Minsk: Special
report to the UN Chernobyl Mission.
3. Goskomchernobyl, State Committee of the Republic of Belarus on the
Consequences of the Disaster at the Chernobyl NPP. 2001. 15 Years after
the Chernobyl Disaster: Consequences in the Republic of Belarus and
Overcoming Them. Minsk: Trioleta.
4. Ministry of Education, Republic of Belarus. 2001. State of the Educational
Systems on the Regions Affected by the Chernobyl Disaster. Minsk.
5. Russian Federation. 1992. The Law on the Social Protection of Population
Affected by the Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident. Moscow.
6. Stepanenko, V. 2001. Reference Materials for the UN Chernobyl Mission.
Obninsk.
7. Ukraine. 2001. Fifteen Years of the Chernobyl Disaster: the Experience of
Overcoming: the National Report of Ukraine. Kyiv: Chernobyl
Radioecological Center of the Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine.
8. UNDP. 2001. Evaluation and Forecast of Water Quality in Districts Affected
by the Chernobyl Accident (Bryansk Region). Final Project Report.
Project RUS/99/004. Moscow.
9. UNSCEAR. 2000. Medical Effects of the Accident at the Chernobyl Power
Plant.
10. Vakulovsky, S. 2001. Brief Information on the Radioactive Contamination of
the Russian Federation as a Result of the Chernobyl NPP Accident
26.04.86. Moscow: Special report produced for the UN Chernobyl Mission.
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Final: 25.01.02
Annex 2: Mission Team
Dr Aleg Cherp
Professor Dr Angelina Nyagu
Fedor Fleshtor
International Expert, Ecology. Assistant Professor,
Central
European
University,
Budapest:
[email protected]
National Expert, Ukraine, Health.
President of the Association “Physicians of
Chernobyl”. Editor-in-Chief: International Journal
of Radiation Medecine: [email protected]
National Expert, Belarus, Economy. Director,
Gomel Regional Economic Development Agency:
[email protected]
Dr Keith Baverstock
Dr Marina Khotouleva
Patrick Gray (Team Leader)
International Expert, Health.
Regional Adviser, Environmental Radiation and
Public Health, European Regional Office, WHO
e-mail: [email protected]
National Expert, Russia, Ecology; Director, Ecoline,
Moscow: [email protected]
International Expert, Economy; Director, Oxford
Research Ltd: [email protected]
The following specialists prepared commissioned papers for the Mission:
Dr H G Germenchuk
Dr Larissa Shevtchuk
Dr Sergey Vakulovsky
Dr Valery Stepanenko
Dr Irina Abalkina
Vasyl Kovalchuk
Dr Valentina Prylpko
Dr Yury Sayenko
Mr Mykhailo Borycyuk
Deputy Head, Centre for Radiation Control and Monitoring
of the State Committee on Hydrometrology (Belarus)
Health Specialist, Chernobyl Committee (Belarus)
Deputy Director, Institute of Experimental Meteorology,
NPO Typhoon (Russian Federation)
Head of Medical and Ecological Dosimetry Laboratory,
Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian Federation)
Senior Research Fellow, Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian
Academy of Science (Russian Federation)
Head of Chornobyl Department, Ministry of Emergencies
(Ukraine)
Head of Sociological Laboratory, Scientific Centre for
Radiation Medecine (Ukraine)
Deputy Director, Institute of Sciology, Kiev (Ukraine)
Head of Secretariat, Verhovna Rada Ecological Committee
(Ukraine)
The report was drafted by Patrick Gray, drawing on sector reports prepared by the sector
specialists. Copies of these can be obtained from Dr A Cherp - Ecology; Dr K
Baverstock - Health; Mr F Fleshtor – Economy (e-mail addresses above), or from Neil
Buhne, the UN Resident Representative in Minsk ([email protected]).
76