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Company Update, 9 January 2015
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
Buy (Maintained)
Property - Real Estate
Market Cap: USD8,248m
Target Price:
Price:
HKD22.80
HKD18.40
Macro
Risks
Large Exposure In Major Cities a Boon
Growth
Value
Shimao Property (813 HK)
Price Close
Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS)
20.0
105
19.0
101
18.0
96
17.0
92
16.0
88
15.0
83
14.0
79
13.0
74
12.0
60
70
We like Shimao's good positioning in Tier-1 and -2 cities and see a low
risk of it being embroiled in China's anti-corruption drive. Maintain BUY,
but raise TP to HKD22.80 (from HK20.30, 23.9% upside) on a slightly
higher HKD30.40 end-FY15 ENAV and lower target NAV discount of 25%
(from 30%). We expect the counter's strong performance to continue.
This report marks the transfer of coverage to Toni Ho.
♦
50
40
30
♦
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
10
Jan-14
Vol m
20
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (HKD/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (HKD)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
Hui Wing Mau
164m/21.1m
11.4
23.9
13.3 - 19.0
36
3,473
64.5
Share Performance (%)
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
6.2
(0.2)
9.5
13.3
4.2
♦
Appropriate strategy of focusing on more prosperous regions. We
notice that China’s major Tier-1 and -2 cities have been leading the
property market’s turnaround since 4Q14 in terms of transaction volumes
and selling price rebounds. We also think the interest rate cut, mortgage
loosening and policy relaxation will boost the purchasing power of firsttime buyers and upgraders. Therefore, we expect large-scale developers
with significant exposure in such cities and the mid-range to high-end
residential property segments to continue to outperform. In this aspect,
we like Shimao Property (Shimao), given its strong presence in robust
Tier-1 and -2 cities, especially in Fujian province and the Yangtze River
Delta (YRD) region, which contribute one-third to its total saleable
resources.
A relatively safe play amid concerns over the anti-corruption drive.
This campaign has aroused anxieties over the legal accountability of
high-level management and developers’ shareholders. We suggest for
investors to avoid developers holding large-size projects with abnormally
low land costs or a significant reliance on particular cities, given that
these characteristics are more eligible for legitimate risks. Besides the
state-owned enterprises (SOEs), we prefer large scale, nationwide
developers with more even geographical distribution and reasonable
land costs for their landbank. We believe Shimao will suffer less from
such private enterprise concerns, given its transparent land acquisition
approach and operational track record.
Lift TP to HKD22.80 (from HKD20.30) and maintain BUY. We lift our
ENAV slightly to HKD30.40 (from HKD29.00) to reflect slightly higher
market values of its properties. We also use a narrower target end-FY15
ENAV discount of 25% (+1SD of its past 5-year forward mean) vs 30%
previously to reflect its better fundamentals. These changes have led us
to raise our TP for this stock.
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total turnover (CNYm)
26,031
28,652
41,503
57,332
67,848
Reported net profit (CNYm)
5,723
5,765
7,390
9,449
9,572
Recurring net profit (CNYm)
4,078
4,387
7,319
8,626
9,572
Recurring net profit growth (%)
38.6
7.6
66.8
17.9
11.0
Recurring EPS (CNY)
1.16
1.27
2.11
2.49
2.76
Toni Ho +852 2103 5888
DPS (CNY)
0.32
0.45
0.63
0.82
0.83
[email protected]
Recurring P/E (x)
12.8
11.7
7.0
5.9
5.3
P/B (x)
1.71
1.43
1.23
1.06
0.92
Absolute
Relative
5.9
1.3
7.7
12.7
1.2
Shariah compliant
Dividend Yield (%)
Return on average equity (%)
Return on average assets (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
2.2
3.0
4.3
5.6
5.6
20.0
17.3
19.0
21.0
18.5
5.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
4.6
81.6
55.9
57.4
49.8
45.9
(2.3)
(5.4)
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
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1
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
Approaching a Contracted Sales Rebound
Steady growth of contracted sales in FY14 despite the high base. Shimao’s
execution ability in terms of contracted sales was clearly demonstrated through the
explosive growth of contracted sales revenue in FY12 and FY13, where the company
achieved 50.3% and 45.5% YoY growth respectively. Its strategy to concentrate on
end-user demand and the mid-range to high-end segments received an
overwhelming response. Despite the high base in FY13, Shimao still managed to
record 4.5% YoY growth for its 11M14 revenue. This growth was somewhat dragged
down, however, by the delay in new project launches and some slow-moving
inventory clearance. Having said that, we noticed that Shimao accelerated its sales
progress since Sep 2014 and we anticipate for it to still manage to record 8% YoY
growth in terms of FY14 contracted sales revenue. Also, in spite of the inventory
clearance pressure throughout FY14, contracted ASP remained stable at
CNY12,000/sqm.
♦ We expect contracted sales to rebound in
1Q15
Abundant saleable resources to enjoy the momentum in Tier-1 cities. Recently,
Beijing lifted the provident fund loan ceiling for first-time buyers, while local media
such as Sina have reported that Shanghai may be relaxing its home purchase
restriction (HPR) soon. Shimao holds plenty of saleable resources in Tier-1 and -2
cities like Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Suzhou, Xiamen and Chengdu. Due to the delays
in some of its new project launches, we believe the company is going to achieve a
catch-up in terms of contracted sales in 1Q15. The timing coincides with a rebound in
the sentiment of the property market, which has been boosted by the interest rate cut,
mortgage loosening and policy relief. Moreover, as the hope of further policy
relaxation in Tier-1 cities is mounting this year, we regard Shimao is being in a
favourable position to benefit from this momentum going forward.
Figure 1: Shimao’s monthly contracted sales revenue and ASPs
(CNY bn)
Stable ASP
thoughout 2014
9.0
8.0
7.0
(CNY/sqm)
20,000
15,000
6.0
5.0
10,000
4.0
3.0
5,000
2.0
1.0
-
-
Contracted sales revenue
Contracted ASP
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
Figure 2: Shimao’s quarterly contracted sales revenue
Figure 3: Shimao’s yearly contracted sales revenue and YoY
change
(CNY m)
Steady YOY growth
in 2Q14 and 3Q14
25
80
60%
50.3%
20.32
15
18.58
60
15.57
15.16
(CNY m)
18.97
18.81
20
13.23
50%
40%
46.09
13.36
11.79
64.06
45.5%
35.6%
13.72
67.07
40
10.40
30%
30.66
30.50
10
7.31
20%
20
5
10%
0.5%
-
-
0%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Contracted sales revenue (LHS)
*as at the end of Nov 2014
Source: Company data, RHB
11M14
YoY change (RHS)
Source: Company data, RHB
Healthy Financial Position And Profit Margin
Healthy leverage level thanks to prudent budgeting. Shimao has adopted a
cautious capex approach in recent years, which determines land acquisition and
other capital outflow based on cash inflow from contracted sales. It even allowed land
purchases in some regions only after their contracted sales met respective targets.
Thus, Shimao has managed to record net cash inflows and a gradual decrease in net
gearing over the past few years. Supported by the robust contracted sales, we expect
the declining leverage trend will be maintained going forward.
Slight decline in gross margins but has stayed competitive among peers. Given
the booking of the inventory clearance sales, we expect Shimao to likely show slight
declines in FY14F and FY15F gross margins. Nevertheless, its overall gross margins
should still be well-supported by other new and fast-selling projects. We predict that
they will stabilise in the 33-35% range. Moreover, we regard Shimao’s gross margins
range as remaining well above the sector average of 25-30%.
Figure 4: Shimao’s net gearing ratio
Figure 5: Shimao’s gross margins
90%
Gross margin stayed above sector
average of 25-30%
50%
81.6%
80%
70%
67.9%
40%
55.9%
60%
36.6%
38.4%
33.5%
57.4%
49.8%
50%
45.9%
35.3%
34.5%
FY13
FY14F
33.3%
30%
40%
20%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14F
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
FY15F
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY15F
Source: Company data, RHB
3
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
Figure 6: Appraised NAV of Shimao
Value
Value
% of GAV
(CNY m)
(CNY m)
(%)
Property development:
- Shanghai
25,047
16.3
- Yangtze River Delta (excl. Shanghai)
29,744
19.4
- Northeastern and Bohai Rim
22,239
14.5
- Others
15,375
10.0
92,405
60.2
Investment properties
26,181
17.1
Hotels
13,674
8.9
Cash
21,132
13.8
Gross asset value
153,392
100.0
Total borrowings
(54,698)
Outstanding land premium
(14,200)
Net asset value
84,494
NAV (HKD m)
105,618
NAV per share (HKD)
30.40
Target discount (%)
25%
Target price (HKD)
22.80
Source: RHB
Figure 7: Shimao's 5-year rolling forward NAV band
26.0
+2SD = 14% discount
24.0
22.0
+1SD = 26% discount
Share Price (HKD)
20.0
18.0
Mean = 39% discount
16.0
14.0
-1SD = 52% discount
12.0
10.0
-2SD = 65% discount
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (CNYm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Total turnover
26,031
28,652
41,503
57,332
67,848
Cost of sales
(16,031)
(19,046)
(26,862)
(37,535)
(45,270)
Gross profit
10,000
9,606
14,641
19,797
22,579
Gen & admin expenses
(1,541)
(2,083)
(2,875)
(3,127)
(3,372)
(770)
(1,047)
(1,306)
(1,449)
(1,686)
Selling expenses
Dec-15F
Operating profit
7,689
6,476
10,460
15,221
17,521
Operating EBITDA
7,987
6,823
10,833
15,641
17,966
Depreciation of fixed assets
Operating EBIT
(298)
(347)
(373)
(419)
(445)
7,689
6,476
10,460
15,221
17,521
Net income from investments
122
152
844
813
1,310
Interest income
100
146
191
172
247
Interest expense
(480)
(168)
(312)
(364)
(379)
Exceptional income - net
3,321
3,559
1,876
1,219
-
Pre-tax profit
10,752
10,165
13,059
17,061
18,699
Taxation
(4,303)
(3,581)
(4,834)
(6,284)
(7,112)
(726)
(819)
(835)
(1,328)
(2,015)
Minority interests
Profit after tax & minorities
5,723
5,765
7,390
9,449
9,572
Reported net profit
5,723
5,765
7,390
9,449
9,572
Recurring net profit
4,078
4,387
7,319
8,626
9,572
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
7,689
6,476
10,460
15,221
17,521
298
347
373
419
445
1,469
16,034
12,403
17,829
9,449
438
681
1,053
Operating cash flow
9,894
23,538
24,289
33,182
Interest paid
(2,916)
(3,169)
(3,487)
(3,639)
(3,786)
Tax paid
(2,443)
(3,095)
(3,613)
(5,377)
(6,768)
Source: Company data, RHB
Cash flow (CNYm)
Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
Change in working capital
Other operating cash flow
Cash flow from operations
Capex
Other new investments
Other investing cash flow
Cash flow from investing activities
Dividends paid
Proceeds from issue of shares
Increase in debt
Other financing cash flow
Cash flow from financing activities
Cash at beginning of period
(287)
27,416
4,535
17,274
17,189
24,166
16,862
(10,767)
(12,506)
(31,750)
(20,836)
(15,600)
(646)
(1,723)
(1,251)
349
991
(1,734)
(11,669)
(12,161)
(34,130)
(22,387)
(15,353)
(1,382)
(508)
(1,516)
(3,057)
(2,011)
30
-
-
-
(463)
9,345
5,369
2,000
12
8,696
172
-
(646)
(425)
247
33
(589)
10,357
7,359
(1,530)
18,186
1,887
(1,019)
(1,008)
12,140
12,313
15,894
17,026
20,692
Total cash generated
225
3,583
1,245
3,666
490
Forex effects
(52)
Implied cash at end of period
12,313
(2)
15,894
(113)
17,026
-
-
20,692
21,182
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (CNYm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total cash and equivalents
13,994
18,098
19,573
23,637
24,127
Accounts receivable
4,472
6,639
11,217
13,088
13,088
Other current assets
54,741
53,869
87,159
103,729
112,497
Total current assets
73,207
78,606
117,949
140,454
149,712
Total investments
26,450
33,656
36,633
39,285
42,595
Tangible fixed assets
14,007
15,177
18,031
20,112
20,266
3,578
3,388
3,155
3,200
3,200
44,035
52,221
57,819
62,597
66,061
Total other assets
Total non-current assets
Total assets
117,242
130,827
175,768
203,050
215,773
Short-term debt
14,983
12,381
11,775
12,680
12,680
Accounts payable
17,317
14,316
20,995
24,839
24,839
Other current liabilities
19,173
30,815
49,606
56,956
59,110
Total current liabilities
51,473
57,512
82,376
94,475
96,629
Total long-term debt
27,578
28,613
37,554
42,018
44,018
3,173
3,775
3,986
4,239
4,239
Total non-current liabilities
30,751
32,388
41,540
46,257
48,257
Total liabilities
82,224
89,900
123,916
140,732
144,886
358
356
356
356
356
Other reserves
30,234
35,551
41,386
47,682
55,243
Shareholders' equity
30,592
35,907
41,742
48,038
55,599
4,426
5,020
10,110
14,280
15,288
35,018
40,927
51,852
62,319
70,887
117,242
130,827
175,768
203,050
215,773
Other liabilities
Share capital
Minority interests
Total equity
Total liabilities & equity
Source: Company data, RHB
Key Ratios (CNY)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Revenue growth (%)
19.5
10.1
44.9
38.1
18.3
Operating profit growth (%)
25.0
(15.8)
61.5
45.5
15.1
Net profit growth (%)
22.5
0.7
28.2
27.9
1.3
EPS growth (%)
23.1
2.5
28.3
28.0
1.2
Bv per share growth (%)
14.6
19.9
16.3
15.5
15.6
Operating margin (%)
29.5
22.6
25.2
26.5
25.8
Net profit margin (%)
22.0
20.1
17.8
16.5
14.1
Return on average assets (%)
5.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
4.6
Return on average equity (%)
20.0
17.3
19.0
21.0
18.5
Net debt to equity (%)
81.6
55.9
57.4
49.8
45.9
DPS
0.32
0.45
0.63
0.82
0.83
Recurrent cash flow per share
1.29
4.98
4.96
6.98
4.87
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
SWOT Analysis
• Strong presence in Fujian province and Yangtze
River Delta (YRD) region, where end-user demand
remains solid
• Financial
difficulties or
political issues
of individual
developers may
provoke fears
for the sector
• Undemanding financial position and competitive profit
margin among peers
• Possible contracted sales catch-up.
• Contracted
sales rebound
may take a
break during the
traditional low
season of the
Chinese New
Year
• Hope of policy
relaxation in
Tier-1 cities
• The mortgage
loosening to
first-time buyers
and interest rate
cut strengthen
purchasing
power of endusers
• The inventory clearance and some slow-moving
projects remain a drag on contracted sales
• Challenges of oversupply in some cities and price
cuts from other developers remain intact
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
2
5%
0
0%
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
1.5
15%
1.0
10%
0.5
5%
0.0
0%
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-15
10%
20%
Jan-14
4
2.0
Jan-13
15%
25%
Jan-12
6
2.5
Jan-11
20%
Jan-15
8
Jan-14
25%
Jan-13
10
Jan-12
30%
Jan-11
12
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
Company Profile
Shimao Property (Shimao) is one of the leading Mainland China property developers, and focuses on residential, commercial and hotel
developments. The company primarily concentrates on the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, although its presence has now spread
over all of China’s major regions. The Shimao brand, together with some of its hotels and commercial properties, are well-known in
China. The company currently has an attributable landbank of 36.9m sqm, covering 112 projects in 42 cities.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
7
Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)
9 January 2015
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
20.3
19.3
20.4
21.6
22.7
Recommendations & Target Price
22.9
20.4
na
22.4
18.4
16.4
14.4
12.4
10.4
8.4
6.4
Buy
4.4
Jan-10
Neutral
Sell
Apr-11
Trading Buy
Jul-12
Take Prof it
Not Rated
Nov-13
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Date
Recommendation
Target Price
Price
2014-09-11
Buy
20.3
17.5
2014-05-16
Buy
19.3
15.0
2014-03-26
Buy
20.4
16.0
2014-01-28
Buy
21.6
17.0
2013-11-29
Buy
22.7
19.4
2013-09-30
Buy
22.9
17.8
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
8
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings
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