Eagle Eye - Sharekhan

A Sharekhan currency research newsletter
January 12, 2015
Punter’s Call
USD-INR: Dominated by bears
MACD (0.14542)
USD-INR has fallen sharply in the last few sessions. It has
broken the key daily moving averages (DMAs). The currency
pair has also fallen below the medium-term rising trendline.
The short-term momentum indicators are in line with the
fall. All these observations suggest that the bears are having
an upper hand. Key levels on the downside will be Rs61.76–
61.36. On the other hand, the level of Rs62.70 will act as a
key resistance on the closing basis.
0.0
-0.5
USDINR - INDIAN RUPEE (62.4900, 62.5100, 62.2900, 62.3450, -0.32500)
64.5
64.0
63.5
63.0
62.5
62.0
61.5
61.0
60.5
60.0
59.5
59.0
58.5
58.0
57.5
April
View
Down
Reversal
Target
62.70
61.76/61.36
May
June
GBP-INR: Under pressure
GBP-INR recently faced resistance near the key weekly
moving averages (WMAs). From thereon it has fallen sharply.
It has broken the swing low of Rs96.25 and has reached lower
end of the falling channel. Below Rs93.99, the GBP-INR can
fall down till Rs93.18, ie lower end of the medium-term
falling channel and Rs92.62, ie the junction of 40-monthly
exponential moving average (MEMA) and monthly lower
Bollinger band. On the flip side, the level of Rs96 will act as
a strong resistance on closing basis.
July
Augus t
Septem ber
Novem ber
2015
February
KST (-1.71498)
10
5
0
-5
GBPINR (96.9990, 97.0360, 93.9960, 94.5030, -2.45800)
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
View
Down
Reversal
Target
96
93.18/92.62
85
O N
D 2013
A
M
J
J
A
S
O N
D 2014
M A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N D
2015
M A
M
J
J
A
sharekhan
Currency Eagle Eye
EUR-INR: Drills through the channel
MACD (-0.70101)
2.0
1.5
EUR-INR has been falling for the last several months. The
entire fall is unfolding in a channelised manner. It recently
faced resistance near the upper end of the channel. Since
then it has been cracking down. It has broken the lower
end of the channel in the last week. The channel line,
which is near Rs74.90 will now act as a crucial hurdle on
a closing basis. On the downside, Rs72 will be the level to
watch out for.
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
EURINR (73.8940, 74.0200, 73.3240, 73.8100, -0.09000)
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
View
Down
Reversal
Target
74.90
72
un
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
2014
JPY-INR: Bullish potential
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
2015
M
70
Relative Strength Index (34.8804)
60
JPY-INR had reached near the lower end of the multimonth falling channel as well as near the extended
Fibonacci target. Near those levels, bulls rushed in to
provide support. Consequently, the currency pair formed
a bullish outside bar on the weekly chart. Thus, the low
of Rs0.5079 will act as a crucial support. From thereon
the currency pair has entered a pullback mode; however
the pullback is breaking up into lower degree waves. The
weekly momentum indicator is also recovering from the
oversold territory. The key levels on the upside will be
Rs0.5507–0.5604.
50
40
30
20
JPYINR (0.52500, 0.53840, 0.52050, 0.52590, +0.00090)
0.72
0.71
0.70
0.69
0.68
0.67
0.66
0.65
0.64
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.60
0.59
0.0%
0.58
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
0.57
0.56
0.55
0.54
100.0%
0.53
0.52
0.51
161.8%
0.50
0.49
N
View
Up
Reversal
0.5079
D 2013
A
M
J
J
A
S
O N
D
2014
M A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N D
2015
M A
M
J
J
A
S
O
Target
0.5507/0.5604
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