Market Report 21 January 2015 2014 November 2014 Important events for next week: Friday: Last trading day for January contracts INDEX TABLE CBOT March Corn CBOT March Wheat CBOT March Soya R/$ Brent Crude Spot Previous day 12pm 3.8350 5.3125 9.8425 11.6312 48.69 Present day 3.9200 5.4300 9.8825 11.5782 48.37 Change 8.50 11.75 4.00 -0.053 -0.32 CBOT $/mt 154.32 199.51 363.11 SA $/mt 177.23 342.19 458.79 Implied Parity Move R 30.74 R 39.64 -R 2.15 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS CORN/MAIZE CBOT – March ▲3.25c/bu @ 390.25c Overnights – March ▲1.00c/bu @ 391.25c Corn found support from higher ethanol prices despite weakness in crude oil There was also support from technicals as well as good US export inspections Funds bought around 8k contracts WHEAT CBOT– March ▲4.25c/bu @ 537.00c Overnights – March ▲5.75c/bu @ 542.75c CBOT wheat prices closed higher for the first time in 9 sessions There are hopes that US exports will pick up soon as prices become more competitive in world markets The market also found support from renewed signs of unrest between Russia and Ukraine Technically wheat prices are oversold adding support SOYA COMPLEX Soya Beans – March ▼9.75c/bu @ 982.00c Overnights – March ▲5.00c/bu @ 987.00c Soya Meal - March ▲2.30@ $329.00/short ton; Soya Oil - March ▼5c@ 32.94c/lb. Bean prices drifted lower last night as US exports are poised to slow down as world importers focus their attention on South America The USDA announced another cancellation of 170kmt of US beans previously sold to China. Last week China cancelled 459kmt. Traders feel the cancellations could reach 1.5 – 2mmt but this could be higher as China has 6mmt of orders which still have to be shipped and US exporters are battling to get LC’s opened Brazil’s weather however is still a concern with key growing areas remaining dry SAFEX PREVIOUS DAY MTM Change (R) Open Interest Yellow Maize Change (R) Open Interest White Maize M-T-M Jan WM R 1 999 -16 226 -218 Jan YM R 2 014 -1 106 -2 Feb WM R 2 012 7 79 4 Feb YM R 2 026 1 38 1 Mar WM R 2 033 16 13 538 -274 Mar YM R 2 052 -4 6 272 -315 May WM R 2 040 3 360 3 May YM R 2 059 -3 399 -3 Jul WM R 2 035 -14 6 634 58 Jul YM R 2 052 -26 7 489 255 Sep WM R 2 071 17 287 -3 Sep YM R 2 091 -7 122 0 Dec WM R 2 130 -5 48 0 Dec YM R 2 144 -19 51 6 Corn in Rands M-T-M Change (R) Open Interest Change (R) Open Interest Change Mar Corn R 1 771 -19 1 645 42 Jan Wht R 3 905 0 86 -14 Jul Corn R 1 869 3 2 963 88 Feb Wht R 3 912 0 4 0 Dec Corn R 1 977 20 86 0 Mar Wht R 3 962 -3 19 718 -416 May Wht R 4 008 0 1 723 -62 Jul Wht R 4 037 0 1 565 15 Sep Wht R 3 900 81 885 5 Change (R) Open Interest Change Change Wheat Change M-T-M M-T-M Change Change (R) Open Interest R 5 020 -10 84 -12 Jan Soya R 5 733 -12 202 -75 Feb Suns R 4 950 0 1 0 Feb Soya R 5 628 -2 250 0 Mar Suns R 4 880 -45 1 465 -28 Mar Soya R 5 312 -37 2 888 -98 May Suns R 4 590 20 976 53 May Soya R 4 791 -38 3 740 -105 Jul Suns R 4 640 21 73 36 Jul Soya R 4 871 -32 154 0 R0 0 - 0 Sep Soya R 4 946 -14 115 0 Sunflower M-T-M Jan Suns Sep Suns Soya Change M-T-M Maize prices closed mixed yesterday with little direction from the CBOT/ Rand parity indication and ideas that Monday’s limit up move was a bit overdone. There are also slightly better chances for rain over the western regions. COMMENTARY SA Weekly Exports: Exports for week ending 16 January '15 Countries WM YM Exports Botswana 5 481 562 Japan 0 Rep. of Korea 0 Lesotho 2 393 Mozambique 2 013 302 Namibia 4 080 569 Swaziland 1 037 820 Taiwan Zimbabwe Total 15 004 2 253 Total 6 043 2 393 2 315 4 649 1 857 17 257 Total Exports and Imports from 26 Apr'14 to 16 Jan '15 WM YM Total 1 746 384 873 1 361 711 584 Exports Imports Maize Exports per Country - 26 Apr'14 to 16 Jan'15 To Angola WM YM TOTAL 0 1 011 1 011 Botswana 117 870 20 835 138 705 Cameroon 0 3 540 3 540 Italy 0 50 078 50 078 Japan 0 198 197 198 197 Korea 2 188 214 474 216 662 Lesotho 82 324 7 714 90 038 Mozambique 64 384 18 472 82 856 Namibia 43 811 24 258 68 069 Portugal 0 52 499 52 499 Saudi Arabia 0 55 959 55 959 16 866 31 972 48 838 0 679 185 679 185 57 430 3 517 60 947 384 873 1 361 711 1 746 584 Swaziland Taiwan Zimbabwe Total Rand: The rand was mostly flat against the dollar yesterday, clawing back most of its earlier losses, although it is likely to stay under pressure in a market now seeing some chance of an interest rate cut this month. The rand is likely to lose ground, with weak domestic growth, coupled with receding inflation pressures due to a sharp drop in oil prices, leaving the door open for the South African Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy this year. The bank will hold its first 2015 policy meeting ending on Jan. 29. "The rand faces headwinds this year with the United States likely to start lifting interest rates while domestically economic growth will be constrained by electricity supply limitations," Investec analyst Annabel Bishop said. P WEATHER SA: 2- week forecast: Sakkie Nigrini – Netfor: Die groen omkringde gebied is waar daar enkele buie en of donderbuie voorkom vanoggend maar dit is nie baie nie. Chedza is nou so te sê ‘n koue front en mens kan nou net hoop dat daar ten minste weer enkele los hittestorms sal begin voorkom oor die sentrale en noordelike binneland. Die oppervlakte toestande is puik maar die bolug is nie so goed nie, so dit is mog het troffe storms wat kan voorkom in die geel strook soos aangetoon. Die blou oor die Laeveld en dele van KZN is bewolk vanoggend met mis op plekke wat beteken die sig is beperk en sal veral geldig wees teen die oostelike platorand. Met die oppervlakte hoog oos van die land is die vloei weer aflandig oor die westelike en suid-westelike dele en dit gaan weer bloedig warm word oor die streke, die enigste strook waar dit dalk houbaar sal wees is as jy by die see of liewer amper op die see bly!! Niks dramaties nie, uitgesluit die bloedige warm toestande maar dit is normaal vir die tyd van die jaar, die druiwe hou van erge hitte, as ek reg onthou word die druiwe erg soet met hitte, so hopelik kry ons hier in die noorde ook van daai lekker soet druiwe!! International: US: Southern Plains areas will receive very light precipitation as rain and snow during the next couple days. Overall conditions are favourable for wheat; however, due to above-normal temperatures and no winterkill threat. South America: In central Brazil, dry and very warm to hot conditions are in store the next three days. Showers are forecast by the end of the week with moderate precipitation. This will be an important rain event should it verify. Early harvest yields are showing some average to aboveaverage performance. Across southern Brazil, generally favourable trends for developing crops, including several occurrences of rain showers, are forecast through the balance of the week. Argentina's crop areas will receive light to locally moderate rain during the next three days. Conditions are mostly favourable for crops. Pollination is beginning on corn. Black Sea: Most winter wheat in Ukraine and Russia has a significant snowpack, and is not threatened by any cold weather. There is some minor winterkill potential in northern Ukraine where snow cover is patchier. PIVOT POINTS Intraday Pivot Points Second Resistance First Resistance Pivot First Support Second Support Mar WM 2074 2052 2035 2014 1997 Mar YM 2110 2080 2061 2031 2012 Mar Corn 1782 1776 1772 1767 1762 Mar Wheat 4013 3987 3973 3947 3933 Mar Suns 5013 4937 4898 4822 4783 Mar Soya 5371 5343 5321 5293 5271 CONTACT DETAILS POINTS Pretoria 274 Emus Erasmus Ave Erasmusrand Pretoria 012 940 8347 John 012 940 8349 cell: 082 456 7434 [email protected] Juanita Tel: 012 940 8348 cell: 084 824 0902 [email protected] P.O. Box 25082 Monument Park, 0105 The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources which we believe are reliable. Agcom (Pty) Ltd does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Agcom (Pty) Ltd is strictly prohibited. ▲►▼
© Copyright 2024