ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Crude Palm Oil Recap
BMD CPO
Previous
FEB5
2382
MAR5
2368
APR5
2344
MAY5
2314
JUN5
2283
Net Total Change in
Open
High
Low
Close
2385
2371
2351
2318
2285
OI =
2390
2376
2354
2323
2291
3076
2335
2315
2298
2276
2249
2348
2329
2312
2284
2255
Spread
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
19
ICDX CPO
Previous
Open
High
Low
Close
FEB5
MAR5
APR5
8335
8555
8555
8300
8575
8565
8390
8630
8640
8140
8375
8365
8190
8450
8435
MCX CPO
Previous
Open
High
Low
Close
JAN5
460.5
460
461.4
FEB5
466.5
465
466.7
MAR5
470.9
469.4
470.8
Net Total Change in OI =
-162
457.4
463
465.2
458.8
464
468
Spread
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Production
Stocks
Exports
Net
Chg.
-34
-39
-32
-30
-28
%
Chg.
-1.43
-1.65
-1.37
-1.30
-1.23
Apr-2015
36
17
Net
Chg.
-145
-105
-120
Jan-2015
% Vol.
Chg.
-57.56
-34.28
121.95
2.39
5.78
Volume
337
15648
37268
10157
4375
May-2015
64
45
28
%
Chg.
-1.74
-1.23
-1.40
Net
Chg.
-1.7
-2.5
-2.9
Feb-2015
-5.2
%
Chg.
-0.37
-0.54
-0.62
OI
OI Chg.
8721
29552
32508
21784
14376
-57
-7563
6828
1960
1908
OI
OI Chg.
36
73
17
24
65
9
Jun-2015
93
74
57
29
% Vol.
Chg.
-30.43
-12.97
53.62
Volume
208
1121
1103
Volume
432
1245
296
% Vol.
Chg.
-67.59
-60.81
-73.97
OI
1385
4984
892
OI
Chg.
50
-220
8
Mar-2015
-9.2
-4
Malaysia MPOB data (million MT)
MPOB November
MPOB December 2014
Expected
2014
1.36
1.35
1.75
2.01
2.02
2.27
1.52
1.50
1.51
MPOB December 2013
1.66
1.98
1.52
1
Page 1 of 6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Date
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Malaysia CPO FOB - January
Malaysia Palm Kernel FOB - January
Malaysia Palm Oil RBD FOB - February
Malaysia Palm olein - February
Malaysia Palm Stearin - February
China - Tianjin Refined Palm oil Spot
Indonesia CPO FOB Spot
India Mumbai C & F CPO Spot
India Mumbai C & F Palm olein RBD Spot
India Kakinada Palm olein RBD Spot
India Kandla Palm olein RBD Spot
India Mangalore Palm olein RBD Spot
Rate
663.29
1323.43
667.50
662.50
672.50
4950.00
665.00
680.00
700.00
513.00
512.00
518.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
$ / MT
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
$ / MT
$ / MT
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Source: - Reuters
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
BMD CPO futures moved lower on Friday to end the week lower on weak Crude oil prices and
poor export demand.
Indonesian CPO output is estimated to have fallen around 6% in December to 2.165 million MT
from November, on seasonal downturn in production, a survey of leading industry officials
showed.
Exports of Malaysian Palm oil products for Jan. 1-15 fell 11.8% to 545,410 MT from 618,134 MT
shipped during Dec. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
Exports of Malaysian Palm oil products for Jan. 1-15 fell 13.02% to 535,651 MT from 615,805 MT
shipped during Dec. 1-15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Thursday.
CBOT Soy oil March prices closed higher on Friday by 0.40 cent at 33.39 cents/pound.
Indian MCX CPO futures closed lower on Friday. Rupee closed higher.
Crude oil closed higher. US Dollar index ended higher.
2
Page 2 of 6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Spread: - CBOT Soy Oil March – BMD CPO March
Source: - Reuters
The CBOT Soy Oil March – BMD CPO March spread is at $89.00/MT. The spread will likely move
higher.
Spread: - NCDEX Soy Oil January – MCX CPO January
Source: - Reuters
The NCDEX Soy Oil January – MCX CPO January spread is at Rs.216.60/10 Kg.
3
Page 3 of 6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
BMD CPO with USDMYR
Source: - Reuters
BMD Crude Palm Oil March (2329)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
4
Page 4 of 6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
MCX CPO with USDINR
Source: - Reuters
MCX CPO February (464.00)
Trade Recommendation: - Sell below 470, S/L 473, TGT 460 - 456. Trail S/L to 470.50. Exit this position.
Outlook: - Resistance is at 2350 levels. Poor export demand is a negative force. Traders likely booked
profits after the recent rally. CPO prices may move lower towards 2300 levels. A close below 2300 may
push prices lower towards 2250 – 2200 levels.
Dalian Palmolein May (4960)
Comments: - Supports are at 4900 levels.
5
Page 5 of 6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
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