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R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T
GLOBAL INSIGHT
W E E K L Y
J A N UA R Y 1 6 , 2 0 1 5
A C LO S E R LO O K
Oil Rout’s Bark Worse Than Its Bite
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
The crude oil rout is now the third worst since 1984. While this obviously weighs heavily on energy
equities, what about the broader stock market? And which markets tend to perform the best?
The severe bear market in crude oil prices continues to
cause angst, including among equity investors. We’ve had a
number of questions about how equity markets typically fare
surrounding steep declines in crude oil.
Severe Crude Oil Bear Markets Since 1984 (WTI in $)
Jul 2008 - Nov 1985 - Jul 2014 - Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 - Oct 1997 Dec 2008 Mar 1986 Jan 2015 Feb 1991 Nov 2001 Mar 1998
Bottom line: oil crashes don’t automatically usher in an equity
bear market or lengthy period of poor performance. In fact,
the major equity indexes usually fare pretty well after oil prices
bottom.
Equity markets across regions have rallied following the low
point in four of the five previous crude oil bear markets, often
by double digits.
Among the markets we examined, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index performed the
best. On average, they surged 26.9% and 23.1%, respectively,
12 months after the low in oil.
The S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE Index (includes Europe and
Japan) also performed well, rising an average of 12.5% and
13.5%, respectively.
Markets that have a higher share of energy stocks lagged, but
still registered positive returns. Canada’s S&P/TSX rose 8.7%
and the U.K.’s FTSE All-Share climbed 8.5%, on average.
While there was significant variation around the average
performance levels cited above, these markets rose in 20 of
the 29 performance periods we examined.
Click here for authors’ contact information.
For Important Disclosures, see page 6.
-41.3%
-57.4%
-67.2%
-78.4%
-57.2%
-53.1%
Current
Bear Market
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data for current cycle through 1/15/15
M A R K ET P U L S E
3
U.S. banks’ Q4 earnings underwhelm
3
Canadian REITs have a nice shine to them
3
Swiss National Bank U-turn shocks markets
4
Two of Hong Kong’s bellwethers surge on restructuring news
Interestingly, all of these equity indexes struggled in the
12-month period following the crude oil bear market at the
turn of the century (see Nov 2001 – Nov 2002 data in the table).
But that cycle wasn’t solely about oil. It included the aftermath
of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, a brief U.S. recession, and most
importantly, the bursting of the technology bubble. Many
equities, especially in the U.S., were quite overvalued at the
time. We believe these factors played major roles in the equity
underperformance during this period, much more so than the
crude oil bear market.
While we acknowledge five samples aren’t enough to draw
concrete conclusions about the future and the dispersion
among data is wide, they indicate that historically equity
markets have typically delivered positive returns after crude oil
finds a bottom.
This go around, we believe equity markets will fare well after
the crude oil low is established—as long as a U.S. recession
does not materialize. We continue to view the probability
of a contraction as very low, despite the recent softening of
economic data and European headwinds.
Equity Markets Tend to Rise After Major Crude Oil Downturns
Equity Market Returns 12 Months After
the Low in Severe Crude Oil Bear Markets
FTSE
S&P 500 S&P/TSX All-Share
Hang
Seng
MSCI
EAFE
MSCI
EM
Apr 1986 –
Apr 1987
22.1%
22.7%
23.9%
69.0%
58.6%
NA
Feb 1991 –
Feb 1992
12.5%
2.4%
9.2%
36.3%
-9.0%
47.0%
Mar 1998 –
Mar 1999
20.1%
-11.4%
3.8%
-2.8%
5.7%
-22.9%
Nov 2001 –
Nov 2002
-20.3%
-11.1%
-22.4%
-12.2%
-15.9%
0.3%
Dec 2008 –
Dec 2009
28.3%
41.0%
28.0%
44.2%
28.2%
68.1%
Average
12.5%
8.7%
8.5%
26.9%
13.5%
23.1%
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg. “EM” stands for emerging markets.
MSCI EM data is not available before 12/31/87.
WWHHATAT’ S’ SMMOOV VI NI NGGMMA AR RK KETETS S
Shifting Winds
The plunge in safe-haven government bond yields persisted
during the week on concerns global growth is slowing and as
the European Central Bank seems set to announce full-blown
quantitative easing (QE) at its January 22 meeting. The Swiss
National Bank put an exclamation mark on the likelihood of QE
when it abandoned its cap against the euro (analysis on page 4).
Economic sentiment has shifted. The World Bank cut its
global GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.4%, mainly due to
headwinds from Europe, Japan, Russia, and Brazil. Copper prices
tumbled in sympathy (see chart).
Additionally, a surprisingly weak Philadelphia region U.S.
manufacturing survey leads RBC Capital Markets to believe
the national ISM Manufacturing Index could slide to 50–52 in
January from 55.5 (50 separates expansion from contraction).
None of this, in our view, portends a recession, but it fuels
uncertainties about the pace of growth.
Industrial Commodities Have Taken a Turn for the Worse
Copper Cash Price on London Metal Exchange ($/lb)
$3.50
Copper is down 10.8% year to date
and 20.9% since the July 2014 peak
$3.30
$3.10
$2.90
$2.70
$2.50
$2.30
Jan 2014
RBC Capital Markets estimates marginal cost
support is at $2.40/lb, which is the 90th percentile
of the cash cost curve. Since the early 1980s,
spot copper prices have rarely dropped below
the 90th percentile level.
Apr 2014
Jul 2014
Oct 2014
Jan 2015
Source - RBC Wealth Management, RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg; data through
1/15/15
Equity markets are not walking in lock step so far in 2015.
European bourses, China, and Hong Kong rallied during the week
and are leading year to date. North American indexes, which have
been whipped around more by crude oil volatility, are lagging
along with Japan. (Performance statistics are on page 5.)
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
January 16, 2015
2
U N I T E D S T AT E S
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
■
■
■
■
Treasury yields plunged during the week, with the
30-year reaching a record low since 1977 and the 10-year
retreating to 2012–13 levels. Through Thursday’s close
the 30- and 10-year yields have fallen 160 and 131 basis
points, respectively, in little more than a year (see chart).
On Friday, the 30-year traded down to 2.35% intraday (yes,
that is indeed the 30-year yield; that’s not a typo). Lately it’s
been a perfect storm. Low and declining European yields
continued to tug Treasury yields lower. Also, European
deflation risks and the crude oil price collapse are exerting
disinflationary pressure on the U.S. economy. Add to that a
weak December retail sales report and disappointing Philly
Fed Manufacturing survey, and voilà.
Some technical indicators have deteriorated as the equity
market has sold off. A number of stocks suffered sharp
intraday reversals on Tuesday, which led to selling later
in the week. To us, this means the market isn’t out of the
woods yet. The S&P 500 is down 3.4% from its all-time high
reached in late December. Year to date, the weakest sectors
are financials (-5.0%) and energy (-4.6%), and the strongest
are utilities (+3.0%) and health care (+2.9%).
The Q4 earnings season has been shaky so far. Even
though beat/miss rates are tracking better than usual (77.5%
of S&P 500 companies beat estimates vs. 63% average and
69% recent trend), reports from bellwether companies leave
a lot to be desired.
Large banks’ earnings reports were downbeat with the
exception of Wells Fargo. JPMorgan Chase surprised with
a $990M after-tax legal charge and a revenue decline. Bank
of America’s profits and revenue dropped year over year.
Citigroup’s earnings disappointed and revenues were flat.
All three banks suffered from disappointing fixed income
trading volumes. It seems the recent volatility in fixed
income markets has encouraged less trading, not more. The
KBW Bank Index (BKX) fell 4.0% for the week. Not only did
these earnings reports pressure the index, but the ongoing
plunge in Treasury yields also weighed on banks because it
strains net interest margins, a key profit metric.
U.S. Treasury Yields Have Retreated Sharply
4.00
30-year Yield
10-year Yield
3.50
3.00
Down
160 bps
from high
2.50
2.00
Down
131 bps
from high
1.50
1.00
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 1/15/15;
“bps” represents basis points
believe there is downside risk to analyst earnings estimates
absent a significant improvement in the crude oil price.
■
Canadian real estate investment trusts (REITs) continue
to offer a historically attractive yield spread relative to
10-year Government of Canada bonds. While future price
returns will largely be determined by the magnitude and
speed of a potential normalization in the rate environment,
we see REITs as an attractive alternative for incomeoriented investors relative to other traditional dividend
paying sectors.
■
There was higher than usual volatility in government
bonds, with intraday movements of five basis points or
more across the curve. The Canadian 10-year yield is
currently hovering around 1.50%, which is lower than what
a 1-year RBC Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) pays.
■
The loonie continues to mark new 5-year lows along with
oil prices. It is currently sitting within four cents of the 2009
low at CA$0.835/US$1.
■
The preferred share market declined despite the rally in
bonds, removing some of the gains seen in late December.
■
As a result of perpetual preferred share prices holding in,
our fixed income strategies team believes that high coupon
preferred shares currently offer some of the best value in
the preferred share market.
CANADA
Patrick McAllister & Alana Awad – Toronto
■
Bank stocks continue to be under pressure as investors
assess the potential earnings impact of lower energy prices.
Quantifying the direct and indirect influences on bank
earnings is challenging with the duration of low energy
prices a particularly important and uncertain variable. We
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
EUROPE
Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London
■
The STOXX Europe 600 Index increased 4.3% to 352.40
for the week. The European Court of Justice’s decision
that the European Central Bank (ECB) programme to buy
January 16, 2015
3
eurozone countries’ government bonds is within the ECB’s
remit emboldened markets. This increased the likelihood
of the ECB launching quantitative easing (QE), purchasing
sovereign bonds at its next meeting on January 22.
■
■
A QE announcement could improve sentiment for equity
markets, although it is difficult to say how much this is
already discounted in valuations and what size would
satisfy expectations. The ongoing euro weakness continues
to be a positive catalyst for European companies, but we
remain skeptical that the QE effect on the real economy
would be of the same magnitude experienced in the U.S.
After all, the EU economy is more dependent on banks than
on capital markets, and yields are already low. Structural
reforms remain a prerequisite to any sustainable economic
improvement, in our view.
In a surprising move that increased financial markets’
volatility, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned its
currency floor rate of 1.20 EUR/CHF, ending its large euro
purchases over the past three years (see chart). We surmise
that sitting on a large euro reserve and anticipating a
potential ECB QE programme that could debase the euro
against all major currencies caused the SNB to determine
it had to change strategy. In an attempt to reduce the
attraction of the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency, the
SNB also brought interest rates into negative territory.
The currency move impacts most companies with a high
domestic cost base.
Swiss National Bank Announcement
Sends Swiss Franc Dramatically Higher
0.9
■
It was a mixed week for Asian equities. A stronger yen put
pressure on Japanese stocks, while China’s A-share market
resumed its upward move and rallied strongly at the end of
the week.
■
Shares of Cheung Kong Holdings (0001.HK) and Hutchison
Whampoa (0013.HK), two of the largest and best-known
companies in Hong Kong, rallied over 12% at the start of
the week after a restructuring announcement. Cheung
Kong owns close to 50% of Hutchison Whampoa, a major
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
0.7
USD/CHF (inverted, right axis)
1.0
0.8
Swiss National Bank announces
EUR/CHF limit of 1.20 on 9/6/11
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.4
2011
1.0
Swiss National Bank removes
EUR/CHF limit on 1/15/15
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.1
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data as of 9:00 pm GMT on 1/16/15
conglomerate. The restructuring will lead to two sister
companies being created. CK Property will house all of the
property business, while CKH Holdings will hold the other
businesses. This will not change the economic value of the
two companies’ assets, but it should unlock shareholder
value, in our view. Management expects the restructuring
will also result in high dividend payments. If approved
by shareholders, the restructuring should be completed
in the first half of this year. Cheung Kong and Hutchison
Whampoa shares will be delisted on the same day shares of
the two new companies are listed.
A S I A PA C I F I C
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
EUR/CHF (inverted, left axis)
■
The Reserve Bank of India surprised the market with a
25-basis point reduction in its benchmark lending rate to
7.75%. A slowdown in inflation has provided the bank with
more room to maneuver. Indian stocks and bonds rallied on
the decision.
■
Bank Indonesia left its benchmark rate unchanged at
7.75%. Rates were also kept unchanged at a record-low
2% in South Korea. However, the Bank of Korea lowered
its growth forecast for the year to 3.4% from 3.9% and its
inflation forecast to 1.9% from 2.4%.
January 16, 2015
4
M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D
Data as of January 16, 2015
Equities (local currency)
Level
S&P 500
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Govt Bonds (bps chg)
Yield
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
2,019.42
-1.2%
-1.9%
-1.9%
9.4%
U.S. 2-Yr Tsy
0.484%
-7.8
-18.1
-18.1
10.1
17,511.57
-1.3%
-1.7%
-1.7%
6.7%
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy
1.826%
-11.9
-34.6
-34.6
-101.6
NASDAQ
4,634.38
-1.5%
-2.1%
-2.1%
9.9%
Canada 2-Yr
0.873%
-7.5
-13.9
-13.9
-17.0
Russell 2000
1,176.66
-0.8%
-2.3%
-2.3%
0.3%
Canada 10-Yr
1.531%
-12.4
-25.7
-25.7
-99.8
S&P/TSX Comp
14,309.41
-0.5%
-2.2%
-2.2%
3.5%
U.K. 2-Yr
0.401%
0.0
-4.5
-4.5
-10.6
FTSE All Share
3,520.23
0.5%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-3.6%
U.K. 10-Yr
1.534%
-6.6
-22.2
-22.2
-127.7
Dow Industrials (DJIA)
STOXX Europe 600
352.40
4.3%
2.9%
2.9%
5.5%
Germany 2-Yr
-0.162%
-4.3
-6.4
-6.4
-34.0
German DAX
10,167.77
5.4%
3.7%
3.7%
4.6%
Germany 10-Yr
0.454%
-3.8
-8.7
-8.7
-132.5
Hang Seng
24,103.52
0.8%
2.1%
2.1%
4.9%
3,376.50
2.8%
4.4%
4.4%
66.8%
Nikkei 225
16,864.16
-1.9%
-3.4%
-3.4%
7.1%
India Sensex
28,121.89
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
32.2%
3,300.68
-1.1%
-1.9%
-1.9%
5.1%
Brazil Ibovespa
49,016.52
0.4%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-1.4%
Mexican Bolsa IPC
41,402.01
-2.3%
-4.0%
-4.0%
-1.8%
Commodities (USD)
Price
MTD
YTD
Shanghai Comp
Singapore Straits Times
Gold (spot $/oz)
12 Mos
Rate
U.S. Dollar Index
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
92.67
0.8%
2.7%
2.7%
14.5%
CAD/USD
0.83
-1.0%
-3.0%
-3.0%
-8.8%
USD/CAD
1.20
1.0%
3.2%
3.2%
9.7%
EUR/USD
1.16
-2.4%
-4.4%
-4.4%
-15.1%
GBP/USD
1.52
-0.1%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-7.4%
AUD/USD
0.82
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
-6.7%
USD/CHF
0.86
-15.2%
-13.5%
-13.5%
-4.9%
1,279.70
4.7%
8.0%
8.0%
3.0%
USD/JPY
117.63
-0.7%
-1.8%
-1.8%
12.7%
17.75
7.5%
13.0%
13.0%
-11.7%
EUR/JPY
135.98
-3.1%
-6.1%
-6.1%
-4.3%
Silver (spot $/oz)
Copper ($/metric ton)
1 Week
Currencies
5,681.00
-7.9%
-10.8%
-10.8%
-22.6%
EUR/GBP
0.76
-2.3%
-1.7%
-1.7%
-8.4%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl)
48.69
0.7%
-8.6%
-8.6%
-48.2%
EUR/CHF
0.99
-17.2%
-17.3%
-17.3%
-19.3%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl)
49.95
-0.3%
-12.9%
-12.9%
-53.4%
USD/SGD
1.33
-0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
4.3%
3.10
5.1%
7.1%
7.1%
-29.4%
USD/CNY
6.21
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
310.91
-3.9%
-3.6%
-3.6%
-10.9%
USD/BRL
2.62
-0.4%
-1.3%
-1.3%
11.0%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)
Agriculture Index
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close.
Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each
pairing. Data as of 9:38 pm GMT 1/16/15.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.83 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.83 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -8.8% return means the Canadian dollar fell 8.8% vs. the U.S.
dollar year to date. USD/JPY 117.63 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 117.63 yen. USD/JPY 12.7% return means the U.S. dollar rose 12.7% vs. the yen year to date.
U P CO M I N G EV E N TS
SUN, JAN 18
TUE, JAN 20
WED, JAN 21, cont.
FRI, JAN 23
Japan Industrial Production
Eurozone, Germany ZEW Surveys
U.K. Employment Change (70k)
U.K. Retail Sales (-0.6% m/m)
MON, JAN 19
Eurozone Q3 Gov't. Debt, Deficit
BoE MPC meeting minutes
Eurozone Markit Manuf. PMI (51.0)
China Fixed Assets Ex Rural (15.7% y/y)
U.S. State of the Union Address
BoC meeting
Eurozone Markit Services PMI (52.0)
China Retail Sales (11.8% y/y)
Canada Manuf. Sales (-0.5% m/m)
THU, JAN 22
U.S. Markit Manuf. PMI (54.0)
China Industrial Prod. (7.4% y/y)
WED, JAN 21
China HSBC Manuf. PMI
U.S. Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity
China Q4 GDP (7.2% y/y)
BoJ meeting
Japan Markit Manuf. PMI
U.S. Leading Index (0.4% m/m)
Eurozone Current Account
Japan Leading Index
ECB meeting
SUN, JAN 25
U.S. markets closed
U.K. Unemployment Rate (5.9%)
U.K. Public Finances
Greek parliament elections
All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
January 16, 2015
5
AUTHORS
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States
[email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Alana Awad – Toronto, Canada
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms
to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC
ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U)
most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings
are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as
described below).
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
[email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
As of December 31, 2014
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
[email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Rating
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform]
Hold [Sector Perform]
Sell [Underperform]
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
897
686
112
52.92
40.47
6.61
290
137
6
32.33
19.97
5.36
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the
responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by
the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management operates as a division of RBC Capital Markets,
LLC. In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC
Dominion Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
This report has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. which is an indirect
wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related
issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Alana Awad, Patrick McAllister, and Jay Roberts,
employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion
Securities Inc.; and Davide Boglietti and Frédérique Carrier, employees of RBC
Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment
Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication.
These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with
the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are not
associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to NASD
Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 governing communications with subject
companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in
accounts held by research analysts.
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more companies), RBC
Wealth Management may choose to provide important disclosure information
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References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may
include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by RBC
Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended
lists include the Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large
Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio:
Midcap 111 (RL9), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided Portfolio:
Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11). RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the
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abbreviation ‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended
List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed from a
Recommended List.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides
research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents
solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months
relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of
Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same
because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide
significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over
12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over
12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over
12 months.
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above
Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of
financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance
sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of
financial and/or stock price volatility.
Valuation and Price Target Impediments
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