Commodity Research Desk
Cotton Insight
Friday, 16 January 2015
Cotton: Technical Recommendation
Commodity
Contract
S2
S1
CMP
R1
R2
Cotton NYBOT-ICE
Mar-15
59.35
59.42
59.53
59.65
59.76
Cotton MCX
Jan-15
15032
15078
15130
15167
15200
Cotton Ace
Feb-15
31763
31857
31950
32057
32163
Cocud NCDEX
Feb-15
1446
1453
1460
1465
1470
Kapas NCDEX
Apr-15
771
772
773
774
774
Market Review:
Cotton market witnessed downward trend which make cotton to trade
lower to negative notes in future market.
Cotton traded at unchanged price of Rs.32700/candy for cotton lint in
Maharashtra while Major spot markets were closed in Telangana and
Gujarat.
Meanwhile Future markets reported sideways to lower trend across
different exchanges. However MCX January future price moved up
marginally to settle the future at Rs.15130/bale, up by 0.07% against
last day.
Recommendation
Sell at 59.84-59.86 TP 59.42/59.35 SL 60.30
Sell at 15200-15210 TP 15080/15036 SL 15300
Sell at 32060-32070 TP 31860/31770 SL 32170
Sell at 1462-1464 TP 1446/1435 SL 1475
Trading range 778-768
Major Spot Market Update :
Cotton (Rs./Bale)
15/1/2015
14/1/2015
%
Rajkot
31900
32000
-0.31%
Akola
32700
32500
0.62%
Futures Price Performance:
Date
MCX
%
NYBOT
%
1/13/2015
15250
0.46%
60.15
0.70%
1/14/2015
15120
-0.85%
58.98
-1.95%
1/15/2015
15130
0.07%
59.49
0.86%
Cotlook Index:
ACE cotton February future traded on negative cues and closed at
Rs.31950/Candy,0.75% lower against previous day.
Meanwhile ICE cotton march future traded on positive notes owing to
improved weekly export data and settled at 59.49 Cent/Lb, 0.9%
higher than previous day
Outlook and Strategy:
Cotton prices witnessed downward trend since starting of this month and it
may continue in coming days also. As Indian cotton exporter are facing stiff
competion in global market due to comparatively higher price of yarns. Indian
cotton export is estimated to shurk by 47% this year as for USDA estimation.
Dull export and subdued demand from domestic mills is the main concern for
the cotton traders. Meanwhile Cotton Corporation of India has procured 4.4
million bales of cotton under its procurement plan and has planed to sell the
procured cotton from next week. Spot market may wittness slight increase in
arrivals in coming days which may drift the cotton price at lower level. As for
CCI estimation , 60 to 70% arrivals of total crop still has to come in the
market. Ginning mills also reported limited buying and running below to their
capacity in Telangan and Maharashtra due to slack demand from spinners.
From Global market front, US market reported slight impovement in export
of cotton last week and it was 11% up against previous week and 21% up
from prior four week recorded on 8th Jan. The primary destinations were
China (49,900 RB), Indonesia (43,500 RB), Vietnam (40,100 RB), Turkey
(38,000 RB), and Mexico (13,000 RB). Meanwhile global ending stock is
forecast to grow to 21.6 MT, which is up around 9% from 19.57 MT recorded
in the previous year.
Cotton Insight: A comprehensive daily covering MCX, ACE and NYBOT-ICE
Technical Analysis Chart:
E=
Cotton
Insight
Overall we believe cotton may trade on lower to negative notes during today’s trading session in domestic
market.
Derivative Analysis:
15800
7000
33500
6000
33000
15500
5000
32500
15400
4000
32000
15200
3000
31500
15100
2000
31000
1000
30500
Cotton-MCX PVOI
15700
15600
15300
15000
14900
14800
0
6-Jan
7-Jan
8-Jan
9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan
Open Interest
Volume
Open Interest
Volume
Price
Price
Spread Analysis:
Spread Analysis:
250
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
ACE COTTON PVOI
600
MCX: Time Spread: January- February
ACE: Time Spread: January- February
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
Prepared By:
Function
Analyst
Head of Research-Commodity & Currency
Aurobinda Prasad
Fundamental Analyst
Ravi Shankar Pandey
Technical Analyst
Ramesh Chenchala
To unsubscribe please mail us at [email protected]
Disclaimer
The report contains the opinions of the author, which are not to be construed as investment advices. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its
affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions
expressed above. The above mentioned opinions are based on the information which is believed to be accurate and no assurance can be given for the accuracy
of this information. There is risk of loss in derivatives. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for any
losses in trading.
Commodity derivatives involve substantial risk. The valuation of underlying assets may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose entire value of their original
investment. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Karvy
Comtrade that the reader/client will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance.
Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The Information contained
in this report is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and not to
be construed as investment advices.
For Detailed disclaimer please go to following URL’s;
http://www.karvycomtrade.com/v3/ContentPages/Disclaimer.htm
http://www.karvycomtrade.com/v3/ContentPages/RiskDisclaimer.htm
Cotton Insight: A comprehensive daily covering MCX, ACE and NYBOT-ICE
Mail Us at [email protected]