Energy Efficiency Forum and Fair
January, 2015, Istanbul
1
2
Outline
1. Why energy efficiency is so important?
2. Which country is the most energy efficient?
3. What makes differences?
4. What role technology plays?
5. How much potential for energy efficiency
improvement does Turkey have?
6. Conclusion
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3
1. Significance of Energy Efficiency Improvement
1) Energy efficiency reduces energy consumption and enhance energy
security
2) Energy efficiency reduces respective cost in the respective sector
and country
①Household:
Save electricity and gas bill
②Manufacturing Industry: Reduces production cost
③Power sector:
Reduces power generation cost
④Nation:
Reduces the cost of energy imports or
increases the export profit.
3) Energy efficiency is the key to combat global warming.
⑤Global Community:
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substantial reduction of CO2 emissions by
2050 will be achieved through the
improvement of energy efficiency to save the
planet.
4
( Reference )
Energy Efficiency leads to Energy Security (ASEAN)
Self-sufficiency (2012)
Energy efficiency (2012)
0.74
0.70
0.64
0.57
0.19
0.14
0.10
0.10
Source: IEA, Energy balances of OECD countries, Energy balances of non-OECD countries
 Big room for energy efficiency improvement in many countries.
 More efficient energy use will reduce costs of imported energy or save
national resources and improve security.
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Turkey
Turkey
Korea
Japan
Japan
0.00
Non-OECD Asia
(excluding China)
26%
0.24
Thailand
Non-OECD Asia
(excluding China)
Viet Nam
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
People's
Republic of China
Brunei
Darussalam
0%
18%
0.20
Singapore
6%
2%
0.29
0.30
Philippines
60%
57%
89%
Turkey
Turkey
69%
107%
Korea
87%
100%
109%
Japan
Japan
200%
0.40
0.46
0.41
0.38
Malaysia
206%
0.50
People's
Republic of China
300%
0.57
0.50
Brunei
Darussalam
400%
toe per thousand 2005 USD
0.60
Indonesia
479%
India
500%
0.80
Viet Nam
600%
5
( Reference )
Supply and Demand Outlook (Oil and Natural gas)
China’s supply and demand
outlook on Oil and Natural gas
1,000
900
800
Oil
Mtoe
Consumption
Production
Net Import
500
400
300
200
100
800
674
464
▲16%
221
163
500
412
400
300
257
208
208
208
203
-19
-100
1980
900
800
-20
1990
-100
2000
2012
2020
2030
2040
Natural gas
Bcm
1,000
44%
Consumption
Production
Net Import
52%
500
400
Natural Gas
Import
Dependency
Ratio
100
0
600
47%
500
418
287
320
334
169
14 14
▲10%
0%
0%
0
15 15
0
146
107
200
151
100
39
25 28
41%
▲86%
▲35%
8%
57%
263
119
88
153140
300
220
209
107
58
411
333
149
123
114
114
111
2012
2020
2030
2040
▲22%
▲15%
86
13
1990
-50
1980
-31
1990
2000
Natural gas
Bcm
Consumption
Production
Net Import
Natural Gas
Import
Dependency
Ratio
▲28%
▲38%
▲83%
▲206%
▲137%
163
86
10 32
260
209
152
333
272
396
343
203
89
36
0
-2
-100
1980
400
300
269
300
200
66%
700
556
27%
900
800
753
700
600
73%
Oil
Import
Dependency
Ratio
0
0
1,000
Oil
Consumption
Production
Net Import
200
100
58
Mtoe
700
600
558
26%
1,000
900
766
55%
119138
89108
877
620
Oil
Import
Dependency
Ratio
▲21%
77%
73%
66%
700
600
ASEAN’s supply and demand outlook
on Oil and Natural gas
2000
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-100
2012
2020
2030
2040
-22
1980
-50
1990
-74
2000
-57
2012
-57
2020
-60
2030
-53
2040
Source: IEEJ “Asia / World Energy Outlook 2014” （Oct. 2014）
6
( Reference )
Household : Cost Saving Potential
（2012）
7.0%
6.2%
6.0%
4.8%
5.0%
4.3%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.2%
2.0%
?
1.0%
0.0%
Japan
Source1
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US
France
German
South Korea
Turkey
Source2
Source1: Household energy handbook 2014 (ECCJ) (for Japan’s data only)
Source2: National Accounts of OECD Countries, Detailed Tables 2006-2013.
7
( Reference )
Industry : Cost Saving Potential by Sector (Japan)
Energy Cost Share by Sector (2011)
Energy Import
Share (2012)
Source: EDMC/IEEJ 2014
EDMC HANDBOOK of
ENERGY & ECONOMIC
STATISTICS
Source：Ministry of the Environment, https://www.env.go.jp/policy/tax/041105/03.pdf
Original data source: 2011 Oil consumption structure statistical tables and industrial data Census
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8
( Reference )
Power Sector : Potential for Generation Cost
Historical Trend of Thermal Power Generation Efficiency
Gas
石油
Oil
Waste heat
recovery
70%
Exhau
boiler
Gas
st gas
turbine
石炭
Coal
1350℃class
1350℃級
30%
Coal
1500℃級
1500℃class
1600℃級
1600℃class
Improved efficiency of
LNG thermal
50%
40%
Boiler
Hydrogen combustion
turbine
1700℃class
1700℃級
60%
Steam
turbine
火力計
Total Thermal
LNG
Exhaust
gas
20%
Supercritical
pressure
(SC)
Subcritical
亜臨界圧
pressure
1100℃class
1100℃級
Advanced ultra
supercritical
先進超々臨界圧
pressure
(A-USC)(A-USC)
超臨界圧
(SC)
超々臨界圧
Ultra
supercritical
pressure
(USC)
IGCC実証機
IGCC demo unit
LNG thermal
Improved efficiency of
coal thermal
Gasification
furnace
Coal
Waste heat
recovery
boiler
Gas
Exhaust gas
turbine
LNG火力
Coal thermal
石炭火力
10%
Steam
turbine
0%
Trends of average ef f iciency
of operating plants
Steam turbine
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Challenges for further improvement in efficiency
 LNG thermal
 A-USC
 Hydrogen turbine
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: Cooling turbine blades, heat-resistant material, hybrid with SOFC/MCFC
: Heat-resistant material for steam turbines and boilers
: Cooling turbine blades, heat-resistant material
9
( Reference )
Nation : Wealth Saving Potential
Total primary energy consumption per GDP
(toe/Million 2010 US$)
p
p
(toe/Million 2010 US$)
500
2,500
2,000
1,500
China
450
Saudi Arabia
400
Turkey
350
China
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Japan
300
Japan
250
200
1,000
150
100
500
50
(C) 2015 IEEJ, All rights reserved
2012
2000
1990
1980
2012
2000
1990
1980
1971
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited
1971
0
0
Source: IEEJ, EDMC Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics
10
( Reference )
Global Community : CO2 Emissions Reduction
Potential by Technology (World)
50
GtCO2
47.0
43.7
45
Biofuel
40.1
Wind, solar, etc
40
35.8
35
Nuclear
Fuel switching
32.6
32.9
30
CCS
30.2
Reference
26.9
23.6
25
24.2
21.2

Advanced
technology+CCS
20
1990
Energy Saving
2000
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
Reference
[Adv. Tech.]+CCS
Total 22.8 Gt
49% reduction
Energy Saving
37%
Fuel Switching
30%
CCS
33%
Gt-CO2
Energy saving
8.5
Biofuel
0.2
Solar, wind, etc
3.1
Nuclear
2.0
Fuel switching
1.5
CCS
7.4
計
22.8
Share
37%
1%
14%
9%
7%
33%
100%
In the Adv. Tech. Scenario, the global CO2 emissions is reduced by various technological options,
including energy saving, enhancement of power generation efficiency, renewables, nuclear, and CCS.
Altogether these options contribute to large CO2 emissions reduction.
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Source: IEEJ “Asia / World Energy Outlook 2014” （Oct. 2014）
11
( Reference )
Global Community : CO2 Emissions Reduction
Potential by Technology (Asia)
Reference
Adv. Tech.
GtCO2
30
24.5
25
22.4
15
15.3
55%
Biofuel
16.8
14.6
Energy Saving
Energy saving
19.7
20
Wind, Solar, etc
15.8
15.9
15.9
Energy
Switching
Nuclear
Fuel switching
45%
Reference
10
5
Total 8.6 Gt
35% reduction
Adv.Tech.
7.0
5.0
※Data excludes CCS
2050
0
1990

2000
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
MtCO2
Share
Energy saving
4,699
55%
Biofuel
Wind, solar etc.
Nuclear
Fuel switching
156
866
1,908
953
2%
10%
22%
11%
Total
8,586
100%
Aggressive development and deployment of advanced technologies in Asia considerably reduce CO2
emissions. Energy saving accounts for 55% of Asia’s CO2 reduction in 2050.
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Source: IEEJ “Asia / World Energy Outlook 2014” （Oct. 2014）
12
( Reference )
Global Community : Role of Energy Conservation
for Low-Carbon Society
日本
Japan
億トンCO2
100
million tons of CO2
350
12
300
10
250
Reduce
emissions by 25%
2020年に25%減
compared
to 1990 level by
（1990年比）
2020
8
世界
World
100 million tons of CO2
億トンCO2
14
200
6
150
4
100
Reduce emissions by
50% by 2050
2050年に半減
Reduce emissions by 80%
compared 2050年に80%減
to 1990 level by 2050
2
-
50
-
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Kaya Identity
C
E
C= ×
× GDP
E GDP
Reduction in C/E: Shifting
to low-carbon society
●Shifting to new energy supplies
2050
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
ΔC Δ(C / E) Δ(E / GDP) Δ(GDP)
=
+
+
C
C /E
E / GDP
GDP
Reduction in E/GDP: Energy conservation
●Energy conservation by technology
●Energy conservation by consumers
(visualization technology)
Need for measures
based on "technology"
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●Changes in industrial structure
and lifestyle
2050
13
2. Which Country is the Most Energy Efficient
Energy efficiency (2012)
0.77
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.30
0.194
0.112
0.102
0.092
0.08
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
0.10
0.19
0.15
France
0.20
0.10
Turkey
Turkey
Japan
Japan
Russian
Federation
United
States
0.00
Canada
toe per thousand 2005 USD
0.50
Note : Japan is still the most energy efficient when industrial structure is taken into consideration.
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Source: IEA, Energy balances of OECD countries, Energy balances of non-OECD countries
14
( Reference )
Progresses of Energy Efficiency
Energy consumption per GDP (Japan)
World-wide comparison(2012)
Energy consumption per GDP (Japan = 1)
(1) Development in technologies
(2) Industrial reconstruction
(3) Changes in life style, etc.
New Strategic
Energy Plan(2010)
6
5.3
5
3.9
4
3
2.5
1.9
2
?
1
1.4
1.0
World Average
Non-OECD
Asia
OECD
Turkey
Turkey
Japan
Japan
0
 Japan's energy utilization efficiency is no-doubt on the world top level.
 Due to permeation of energy-saving technologies and development in structural changes in industry
and society.
 Japan is still struggling for further energy-saving.
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( Reference )
International Comparison of Energy Efficiency
Steel
Cement
Energy Consumption/Steel Production
140
Japan = 100
(2003)
120
100
100
105
110
120
120
125
Energy Consumption/Clinker
200
Japan = 100
(2003)
150
80
100
60
40
130
131
EU
Korea
145
177
178
US
Russia
152
100
50
20
0
0
Japan
Korea
EU
USA
China
Russia
Source： JISF
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Japan
Latin China
America
Source： Battelle
16
3. What makes differences?
a. Incentives :
Promotion Subsidy and
Tax Incentives
b. Dis-incentives :
Energy Subsidy
c. Policy Regulation :
Labeling,
Top Runner Approach,
Efficiency Target …etc.
d. Peoples’ Mindset :
Energy Conservation Campaign
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( Reference )
17
Spending on energy end-use by selected region
in the New Policies Scenario
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Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014
18
4. What role technology plays?
a. Efficiency improvement of respective equipment
b. Efficiency improvement of houses and buildings
c. Efficiency improvement of energy system through IT
⇒ Economic development through investment
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19
4. What role technology plays?
① Spreading High-Efficiency Equipment
 Have conventional technologies reached the limit? Further breakthroughs?
 Unlike in flow, improving efficiency in stock takes time.
Spreading BAT (Best Available Technology) is also a challenge.
 Roles of private-sector R&D and institutional measures (like Top Runner System) need to be
considered.
Flow and Stock Efficiency
Shipping COP
出荷COP
Fuel economy of
新車燃費
new vehicles
Coverage of the Top Runner System
Stock COP
ストックCOP
Fuel economy of
保有燃費
entire fleet
Refrigerator ( Home)
3%
20
18
Auto fuel efficiency (km/L)
16
A/C (Home)
Heat-pump water heater
2%
1% Refrigerator
(冷蔵庫
Business(業
) )
Other
(Home)
(家 )
その他
9%
14
Top
runner system
トップランナー制
not applied
度外
12
10
8
6
1%
A/C(Business)
(業 )
エアコン
3%
Vending
machine
自動販売機
1%
34%
COP of residential A/C
3相モータ
Three-phase
motor
4
44%
2
0
1990
1995
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2000
2005
2010
Electricity
consumption
対象機器の
ratio of equipment under
電力消費量シェア： 66%
top runner system: 66%
66%
(業 )
Other
(business)
その他
2%
20
4. What role technology plays?
② Improvement of Energy Efficiency (Houses and Buildings)
Major countries energy intensity of Household
Japanese energy intensity history of Household
GJ/ Household
1990=100
100
90
140
80
120
70
100
60
80
50
40
--Number of households
--Energy consumption of Household
--Energy intensity by household
60
30
40
20
10
20
0
0
1990
Major countries energy intensity of Building
TOE/m2
1995
2000
2005
2012
Japanese energy intensity history of Building
1990=100
160
30
140
25
120
20
100
15
80
10
60
5
40
--Total floor space
--Energy consumption of Building
--Energy intensity by floor space
20
0
Denmark
France
Germany
Japan
UK
USA
0
1990
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1995
2000
2005
2012
21
4. What role technology plays?
③ Changes in Energy-saving Technologies
■ Conventionally, efficiency improvement meant improving the energy conversion efficiency of
devices and processes.
・ (utility = const.), ・ element technology ⇒ control technology ⇒ systemization
■ Improvement of conversion efficiency with conventional technologies approaching a limit?
■ It has now become necessary to deal with devices whose efficiency varies with usage.
Further, energy consumption is also being reduced through “smart” technology.
・ (utility≠const.)
Human behavior used to be “untouchable” by technology.
Recently, energy saving must also address differences in behavior.
Improved equipment
efficiency
Energy consumption
Element technology
Control technology
Systemization
Variable efficiency
by usage
Efficiency
Utility
?
Power generation: power output
A/C: (room temp., humidity) x time
Autos: distance, time, etc.
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・Better compression ratio, higher
temperature, heat resistance
・Inverters, etc.
・Cogeneration, pinch technology, etc.
・Cogeneration, energy storage-type
equipment
Improvements in actions &
operation
IT, network
・Smart technology, visualization
22
4. What role technology plays?
④ Equipment whose Efficiency Varies Significantly by Usage
Energy Storage-type Equipment
Heat Pump-type Water
Heater
* Electricity is generated with a
residential generator, and the excess
heat from the process is used for
heating water.
Co-generation System
Backup heat
source
Hot water tank unit
* Heat stored in storage tank
Air
Heat pump unit
Hydrogen
Compressor
City Gas
Heat
recovery
device
Water heat
exchanger
Hot water tank
Cell stack
Inverter
Fuel treatment
device
Hot water
supply
Air heat
exchanger
* Electricity can be generated with
either a gas engine or fuel cell
depending on the system.
Temp. regulating value
Hot water
Main products (eg):
Hot water
Ecowill
Enefarm
Energy source：City gas, LPG, etc.
Pump
Source: TEPCO
* Technology for heating water with
the heat extracted from lowtemperature outdoor air by repeated
compression and expansion of
refrigerant, such as CO2.
* Heat stored in storage tank
Main products (eg): Eco Cute
Energy source: Electricity
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Source: Tokyo Gas
Electricity
Water
supply
Efficiency of electricity and heat usage for SOFC residential cogeneration
(Demonstration test result)
power
Installed in 2007
Installed in 2008
heat
2007
Installed in 2009
2008
2009
Heat usage efficiency
Expansion
valve
Primary
energy
reduction
rate
Average power usage efficiency
Source: Demonstrative Research on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells, NEF
23
( Reference )
Additional investments in Advanced Technology Scenario
(cumulative up to 2040)
60
2013 USD Trillion
50
40
30
20
53
OECD
Europe
Additional
investments
for energy saving
18.4
33
Cumulative CO2 emissions
without CCS, Gt
FSU & NonOECD Europe
0.3 6.9
Distribution &
transmission
Renewables
10
Nuclear
Thermal
0
Reference
4.3
Middle East
0.3 7.3
Africa
0.5 4.3
North
America
China
4.1
Production &
transportation
Cumulative additional
investments, 2013 USD trillion
India
1.8
18.5
48.7
Japan
1.3 5.4
Other Asia
1.7 14.3
Oceania
Adv. Tech.
5.0
27.2
Latin
America
1.1
9.7
0.2 1.4
・ On the supply side, while energy supply decreases in Advanced Technology Scenario, investments on
renewable energy (etc.) expand and the cumulative investments up to 2040 are the same level with
Reference Scenario.
・ On the demand side, additional investments of over 20 trillion USD are required for energy savings.
Asian countries, including China and India, account for 44% of the additional investments.
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Source: IEEJ “Asia / World Energy Outlook 2014” （Oct. 2014）
5. How much potential for energy efficiency
improvement does Turkey have?
1) Energy Intensity
-Energy Consumption/GDP)
2) Household
- No Data available
3) Industry
- No Data available
4) Commercial sector
- No Data available
5) Transportation
-Fuel Efficiency Comparison for Passenger Vehicles
6) Power sector
- Efficiency of thermal power generation
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24
25
( Reference )
5. How much potential for energy efficiency
improvement does Turkey have? ( II )
Energy efficiency (1960-2013)
toe per
thousand
2005 USD
0.25
1979
oil crisis
Turkey
Japan
0.20
0.15
1973
oil crisis
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.14
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.19 0.19
0.18
0.14
0.11
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.05
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2010
2012
2013
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
0.00
Source: IEA, Energy balances of OECD countries
26
( Reference )
5. How much potential for energy efficiency
improvement does Turkey have? ( III )
6) Power sector
5) Transportation
Comparison in Power Sector:
Efficiency of thermal power
generation (2012)
Comparison in Transport Sector:
Fuel Efficiency Comparison for
Passenger Vehicles (2008)
10
50%
0.70
9
45%
8
40%
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.19
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.00
Japan
Turkey
7
6
6.2
6.7
5
Efficiency (%)
0.80
Fuel Efficiency (Unit: Lge/100km)
toe per thousand 2005 USD
1) Energy Intensity
( Energy consumption /
GDP)
Source: IEA Energy Balances (2014).
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Turkey
25%
3
15%
2
10%
1
5%
0
0%
The fuel economy in Turkey is relatively high due
to many factors including high ratio of diesel
cars, large number of efficient cars from
manufacturers like Toyoda and Honda, and
many small size cars from Fiat
Japan
30%
20%
Turkey
44.3%
35%
4
Japan
44.0%
The efficiency of thermal power plants has
increased significantly in Turkey, because
of the growing share of gas combined
cycles in thermal electricity generation.
Note : Lge is Liter of gasoline equivalent; Japan is 10-15 test cycle mode,
Turkey is NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) mode.
Source： GFEI(2011): Global Fuel Efficiency Initiative, International Comparison of Light-Duty
Vehicle Fuel Economy and Related Characteristics
27
6. Conclusion
1. Energy efficiency improvement ①enhance energy
security , and ②reduces energy costs for households,
industry and country. It also helps global community
③reduce CO2 emissions to cope with climate change
and save the planet.
2. Energy efficiency makes countries more energy
independent, more wealthy and more eco-friendly.
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28