Climate Watch Advisory Guidance on above-normal precipitation Area concerned: Aegean Sea with islands, Turkey, Cyprus Initial statement issued on 06 November 2014 First update issued on 24 November 2014 Second update issued on 08 December 2014 Third update issued on 19 December 2014 Fourth update issued on 06 January 2014 Fifth update issued on 16 January 2014 Valid: Begin: 19 January 2015 End: 01 February 2015 To: Climate Watch focal points of NMHSs Greece, Cyprus and Turkey The RA VI RCC Network Offenbach Node on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) is responsible for providing Climate Watch guidance information for NMHSs’ own consideration for issuing climate advisories for their territory. After having consulted the consortium partners of the RCC-CM and RCC-LRF (RA VI RCC Network Toulouse and Moscow Node on Long-Range Forecasting), RCC-CM issues the following guidance information: Due to the recent weather situation (local heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean, especially in western parts of Turkey during the last weeks) and due to the weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasts (significantly above-normal precipitation in western Turkey for the next 2 weeks) we expect "A period with above-normal precipitation up to the end of January 2015 is expected for western Turkey and possibly for the Aegean Sea with islands, with locally heavy precipitation. The probability for this anomaly is estimated to be above 70%. For Cyprus and other parts of Turkey we announce the termination of this climate anomaly. “ This information should be used as guidance for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in a pre-operational mode. It is up to the above mentioned NMHSs to closely monitor the status and evolution of the current climate conditions and to consider issuing a national Climate Watch Advisory. RCC-CM would appreciate feedback from NMHS whether this information was helpful. Also, any suggestion on further pieces of information needed by NMHSs is highly welcomed! Attached we provide you with a template for a national climate watch advisory as agreed among the climate watch pilots and RCC-CM. Please note that further information can be obtained from RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm) concerning Climate Monitoring and from RCC-LRF websites (http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr/en/content/bienvenue, http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru/forecast) concerning Long-Range Forecast or by e-mail to [email protected] or [email protected]. For ECMWF member’s further information on monthly forecasts after logging in is provided at http://www.ecmwf.int/. ->Forecasts We will monitor the evolution of the anomaly, issue updates if significant change arise and close the advice when no clear signal can be detected in the forecasts. On behalf of the RCC-CM Team Page 1 / 5 Climate Watch Advisory Meteosat 10 satellite image 16 January 2015, 06:00 UTC. Source: DWD Page 2 / 5 Climate Watch Advisory 500 hPa chart 16 January 2015, 00 UTC. Source: DWD Page 3 / 5 Climate Watch Advisory 16-22 November 2014 23-29 November 2014 30 November – 06 December 2014 07-13 December 2014 14–20 December 2014 21-27 December 2014 Page 4 / 5 Climate Watch Advisory 28 December 2014 – 03 January 2015 04 – 10 January 2014 Weekly precipitation totals for the last eight weeks (source: Climate Prediction Center, USA) Monthly precipitation anomaly forecast for EMCC Region for January 2015 (source: http://www.emcc.mgm.gov.tr/prediction.aspx ) Page 5 / 5