Regional Daily, 20 January 2015 5 Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories Anton Oilfield (3337 HK) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services SELL HKD1.60 TP: HKD0.95 Mkt Cap : USD457m Pg3 Anton’s profit warning came in worse than we had expected amid cancellation of orders by clients. We cut earnings forecasts for FY14 and FY15 to negative, and FY16 by 97%. Maintain SELL with a lower TP of HKD0.95 (0.8x FY15F P/BV). Analyst: Charles Zhang ([email protected]) M1 (M1 SP) Communications – Telecommunications BUY SGD3.62 TP: SGD4.40 Mkt Cap : USD2,532m Pg4 M1 reported 10% core earnings growth in FY14 (4Q14: +10%), meeting expectations. Maintain BUY and SGD4.40 TP (7% WACC), supported by a 2-year core EPS CAGR of 11%. M1 remains our Top Pick for exposure to the Singapore telco sector. Analyst: Jeffrey Tan ([email protected]) Inari Amertron (INRI MK) Technology – Semiconductors BUY MYR2.72 TP: MYR3.41 Mkt Cap : USD508m Pg5 Inari’s share price is set to go ex-rights today. Maintain BUY with our exrights TP adjusted to MYR3.41 (17.5x CY15F P/E, 25.3% upside). We advise investors to subscribe for the cash call as the exercise will help to fund its expansion plans and hence propel earnings growth over the medium term. Analyst: Kong Heng Siong ([email protected]) Pg6 Major News For Thai Telcos & Indo Cement Players Other Key Stories Regional Weekly Spices Analyst: Leng Seng Choon CFA ([email protected]) Malaysia Axis REIT (AXRB MK) Property – REITS NEUTRAL MYR3.52 TP: MYR3.55 Pg7 Analyst: Alia Arwina ([email protected]) Eastern & Oriental (EAST MK) Property- Real Estate NEUTRAL MYR2.48 TP: MYR2.12 Pg8 Quill Capita Trust (QUIL MK) Property – REITS NEUTRAL MYR1.22 TP: MYR1.25 Pg9 Singapore Keppel REIT (KREIT SP) Property – REITS NEUTRAL SGD1.23 TP: SGD1.18 REITS NEUTRAL No Surprises Penetrating Further Into London Analyst: Loong Kok Wen, CFA ([email protected]) Organic Growth Still Flattish Analyst: Alia Arwina ([email protected]) Pg10 Expiry Of Rental Support Dents DPU Analyst: Ong Kian Lin ([email protected]) Pg11 The REITs Pulsebeat: Weekly Review Report Analyst: Ong Kian Lin ([email protected]) See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Regional Daily, 20 January 2015 Thailand Ananda Development (ANAN TB) Property - Real Estate BUY THB3.48 TP: THB4.20 See important disclosures at the end of this report Pg12 Second-Highest Condo Presales In 2014 Analyst: Wanida Geisler ([email protected]) Powered by EFATM Platform 2 Company Update, 20 January 2015 Anton Oilfield (3337 HK) Sell (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services Market Cap: USD457m Target Price: Price: HKD0.95 HKD1.60 Macro Risks Disappointment Continues Growth Value Anton Oilfield Services Group (3337 HK) Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) 132 5.90 112 4.90 92 3.90 72 2.90 52 1.90 32 0.90 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 12 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Pro Development Holdings Corp Schlumberger NV 56.9m/7.30m 9.4 -40.6 1.41 - 6.02 50 2,212 30.6 19.1 YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m (4.2) (9.1) (27.3) (65.8) (73.2) (78.5) (7.4) Likely to incur net loss in 2014. Anton Oilfield Services Group (Anton) expects its FY14 revenue to decline by over 20%, and its FY14 profit to fall by over 140%, which translates into a net loss. The company attributes the net loss to sluggish domestic and international markets amid low oil prices, which led to cancellation of projects and downward pricing pressure. This is much worse than our revenue forecast of +6% and net profit forecast of CNY62m for FY14. Orders backlog cut amid cancellation of orders. As major clients cancelled and downsized projects, Anton reduced its orders backlog in 3Q14 by CNY200m to CNY1,956m. Orders backlog at the end of 2014 stood at CNY1,707m, down 13% QoQ. New orders won in 4Q14 amounted to only CNY458m, down 30% QoQ, mainly due to cancellation and postponement of clients’ projects. Strategy update offers no assurance on earnings. Anton depicted a gloomy picture for 2015 as sales and margins may not improve amid difficult market conditions. Anton will continue its reduction in workforce in 2015 after a 10% cut in 2014 to control cost. Bumpy road ahead. Anton has lowered its guidance twice in less than three months. We think Anton’s business may continue to be under pressure in 2015 amid low oil prices. We cut our earnings forecasts for FY14 and FY15 to negative, and FY16 by 97%. Maintain SELL with a lower TP of HKD0.95. Given the high volatility in Anton’s earnings, we change our TP to P/BV from P/E-based. Our lower TP of HKD0.95 (vs HKD1.30) is based on 0.8x FY15F P/BV, 1SD below its forward P/BV mean. We maintain our SELL call in light of Anton’s net loss for 2014 and the tough FY15 operating outlook amid low oil prices. Forecasts and Valuations Share Performance (%) Relative Source: Bloomberg Absolute 0 0 . 1 0 0 Anton released a series of announcements during the weekend, . 0 including a profit warning, 2015 strategy update and 4Q14 operational 0 update. Maintain SELL with a lower TP of HKD0.95 (0.8x FY15F P/BV, 0 40.6% downside). The profit warning came in worse than we had expected amid cancellation of orders by clients. We cut our earnings forecasts for FY14 and FY15 to negative, and FY16 by 97%. Jan-14 Vol m Price Close 6.90 (14.4) (33.1) (69.6) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 2,005 2,534 1,923 2,353 2,824 Reported net profit (CNYm) 303 383 (162) (3) 20 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 295 369 (171) (23) 287.7 25.1 (146.2) (86.6) Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.14 0.17 (0.08) (0.01) 0.00 DPS (CNY) 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 9 7 1.39 1.21 1.38 1.35 1.33 Total turnover (CNYm) Recurring net profit growth (%) Shariah compliant 2 . 2 0 . 2 Recurring P/E (x) na na 5 na 513 Charles Zhang +852 2103 5842 P/B (x) [email protected] P/CF (x) 7.8 7.3 7.1 26.2 15.2 Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 5.1 20.2 10.5 9.6 16.6 18.0 (7.5) (0.1) 1.0 24.2 50.5 69.9 87.9 (261.7) (111.3) (98.1) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 3 Results Review, 20 January 2015 M1 (M1 SP) Buy (Maintained) Communications - Telecommunications Market Cap: USD2,532m Target Price: Price: SGD4.40 SGD3.62 Macro Risks A Strong Close Growth Value M1 (M1 SP) Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 3.90 114 3.80 112 3.70 110 3.60 107 3.50 105 3.40 103 3.30 101 3.20 98 3.10 7 96 6 0 0 . 2 0 0 M1 reported commendable 10% core earnings growth in FY14 (4Q14: . 0 +10%), meeting expectations. Maintain BUY and SGD4.40 TP (7% 0 WACC, 21.6% upside), supported by a 2-year core EPS CAGR of 11% 0 from more subscribers ‘tiering-up’ and enhanced revenues from new smart and cloud solutions. M1 remains our Top Pick for exposure to the Singapore telco sector. Capital management remains a key catalyst. 5 4 3 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 1 Jan-14 Vol m 2 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Axiata Group Temasek Holdings SPH Multimedia 3.22m/2.46m 3.9 21.6 3.24 - 3.83 37 931 28.6 19.3 13.5 2 . 1 0 . 1 In line. M1’s FY14 core earnings grew 10% YoY (flat QoQ) to SGD175m, 2-3% ahead of our and consensus forecasts. Seasonality and strong iPhone 6 sales explained the 38% QoQ (+24% YoY) surge in overall revenue. M1 sustained its 100% dividend payout with a final DPS declared of 11.9 cents/share (FY13: 21 cents/share). This compares with the previous practice of a special dividend on top of a final payout. Key highlights. Mobile revenue grew 5.3% YoY in 4Q14 (+4.2% YTD), led by stronger postpaid growth (+6% YoY) as more subscribers recontracted to tiered data plans (66% of postpaid subscribers on tiered plans), which saw a SGD2-3/month ARPU increase in Oct 2014. Mobile internet traffic made up 65% of data traffic as average data consumption grew to 3GB/month in 4Q14 from 2.5GB/month in 4Q13. SAC is counter-intuitive. M1 said it is subsidising less on the iPhones compared to a year ago. Although subscriber acquisition cost (SAC) climbed 11% YoY in 4Q14, this was attributed to the significantly higher volume sales of the iPhones vs lower-priced Android handsets. Capex set to moderate. M1’s capex of SGD140m (4Q14: SGD39m) was slightly ahead of its guidance of SGD130m due to lumpy investments in a new data centre and the upgrade to its billing system. It is guiding for capex to moderate to SGD120m in FY15 which includes some investments in fibre. The capex excludes the spectrum payment of SGD64m for the 1,800MHz (FY14: SGD40m for 2,500MHz). Forecast. We make no changes to our FY15-16 forecasts. Key earnings risks are: i) stronger-than-expected competition, ii) higher-than-expected SAC, and iii) adequate spectrum resources. Share Performance (%) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F 1,077 1,008 1,077 1,179 1,287 Reported net profit (SGDm) 147 160 176 192 211 Recurring net profit (SGDm) 147 160 176 192 211 (10.7) 9.3 9.7 9.0 10.2 Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.23 DPS (SGD) 0.15 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.21 Jeffrey Tan +603 9207 7633 Recurring P/E (x) 22.4 20.5 18.7 17.1 15.6 [email protected] P/B (x) 9.44 8.32 8.33 8.16 8.23 P/CF (x) 12.0 10.9 13.6 10.0 10.1 4.0 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 11.3 10.8 9.9 9.3 Return on average equity (%) 43.7 43.1 44.5 48.1 52.6 Net debt to equity (%) 74.6 49.4 70.6 60.2 56.4 5.6 10.7 YTD Absolute Relative 0.3 2.2 1m 2.5 1.9 3m 3.1 (1.1) 6m 0.0 0.3 12m Forecasts and Valuations 10.7 Total turnover (SGDm) 5.8 Shariah compliant Recurring net profit growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 4 Company Update, 20 January 2015 Inari Amertron (INRI MK) Buy (Maintained) Technology - Semiconductors Market Cap: USD508m Target Price: Price: MYR3.41 MYR2.72 Macro Risks Going Ex-Rights Today Growth Value Inari Amertron (INRI MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 3.80 3.30 179 2.80 155 2.30 131 1.80 107 1.30 25 83 0 0 . 2 0 Inari’s share price is set to go ex-rights today based on a ratio of 1-for- 0 . 8. Maintain BUY with our ex-rights TP adjusted to MYR3.41 (17.5x 0 0 CY15F P/E, 25.3% upside). We continue to advise investors to subscribe 0 for the cash call as the exercise will help to fund its expansion plans and hence propel earnings growth over the medium term. 20 15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 5 Jan-14 Vol m 10 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Insas Berhad 9.07m/2.67m 25.5 25.3 1.55 - 3.34 69 630 31.2 Share Performance (%) Salient details. The rights price of MYR1.50 represents a discount of 44.8% to its ex-rights price of MYR2.72, based on its last closing. At its existing share base of 629.6m shares, we estimate that the rights issuance could raise gross proceeds of over MYR115m. This would help to partially fund its FY15-17F capex, of which management is looking to allocate MYR80m for the radio frequency (RF) division, MYR20m for transceiver research and development (R&D), and MYR40m for potential new business set-up. RF growth to propel earnings. On its existing RF division, we had previously highlighted that the existing capacity is almost fully occupied at an average utilisation rate of over 85%. Management is currently in the midst of setting up a new production plant known as P13 to cater for future growth opportunities within this segment. This new facility will host additional 80-100 test handlers (from 460 units currently). We expect commercial production to commence in 2QCY15 upon obtaining a qualification notification from its customer by Feb 2015. In-the-money warrants. The exercise price of the warrants at MYR2.00 implies a discount of 26.4% over its ex-rights price of MYR2.72. This would entice investors to subscribe for the rights as the warrants will be issued deep in the money. Based on our calculations, Inari Amertron’s (Inari) share price ex-rights and ex-warrants (given that it is deep in the money) would be adjusted to MYR2.65 (from its ex-rights price of MYR2.72). Maintain BUY. We continue to advise investors to subscribe for the cash call as we believe the exercise will help to fund its expansion plans and hence propel earnings growth over the medium term. All in, we maintain our BUY call with our ex-rights TP adjusted to MYR3.41 (17.5x CY15F P/E, 25.3% upside). Upon completion of the rights issue and assuming full conversion of the new warrants, Inari’s fully-enlarged share base would increase to 804.5m, while we would tweak our TP accordingly to MYR3.07. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 13.0 8.7 12.5 (12.0) 66.9 Forecasts and Valuations Relative 13.9 7.0 14.9 (5.2) 70.7 Total turnover (MYRm) Shariah compliant Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15F Jun-16F Jun-17F 241 794 931 1,099 1,385 Reported net profit (MYRm) 42 101 130 152 218 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 42 101 129 152 217 113.8 142.1 28.7 17.4 42.8 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.09 0.19 0.18 0.21 0.30 DPS (MYR) 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.12 Recurring P/E (x) 30.6 14.7 16.1 13.7 9.6 P/B (x) 8.05 5.69 3.75 3.20 2.61 P/CF (x) 17.9 34.2 11.4 13.4 10.4 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.9 4.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.6 11.3 11.4 9.5 6.6 Return on average equity (%) 34.8 48.4 35.1 28.4 32.1 Recurring net profit growth (%) Kong Heng Siong +603 9207 7666 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 2 Source: Company data, RHB net cash net cash net cash net cash (5.5) (5.5) Powered by EFATM Platform net cash 6.1 5 Regional Weekly, 19 January 2015 Weekly Spices Major News For Thai Telcos & Indo Cement Players We like Thai telcos as they have superior earnings vs regional peers Major developments include the Thai mobile operators moving to a ‘per second billing’ structure, which we believe will have limited ARPU downside. The Indonesian president announced a cut in cement sales price, an intervention we feel is negative for the industry. In China, we remain bullish on stocks related to infrastructure construction. The Thai telco sector saw a major development. On 7 Jan, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) directed all mobile operators to move to a ‘per-second billing’ structure from the current practice of charging on a ‘per-minute’ basis. We expect the downside to ARPU and earnings to be mitigated by higher data usage and acceleration in smartphone adoption. We are OVERWEIGHT on the sector, based on superior earnings growth of the telcos vs regional peers. DTAC (DTAC TB, BUY, TP: THB132.92) is our Top Pick. Telecommunications : Going For ‘Seconds’ Source: Bloomberg We like CNR, which is merging with CSR. Source: Bloomberg Leng Seng Choon, CFA +65 6232 3890 [email protected] Hong Kong Research Indonesia Research Malaysia Research Singapore Research Thailand Research See important disclosures at the end of this report Thailand’s aviation landscape will see more competition in 2015 on the back of new carriers set up in Thailand and around the region. This could cap the yield recovery for Thai carriers. On a positive note, the slump in jet fuel prices could boost earnings. Stronger earnings prospects are priced in, notably Asia Aviation (AAV TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB4.73) and AOT (AOT TB, TAKE PROFIT, TP: THB251.00). Nok Airlines (NOK TB, BUY, TP: THB15.96) is our only BUY, given its attractive FY15 P/E and dividend yields. We also like Thai Airways (THAI TB, TRADING BUY, TP:THB20.64) as its earnings turnaround could gain traction on its commitment to cut costs and boost productivity. Thailand Aviation - Be Selective In Picking Winners Over to China, which is entering its last year of China’s 12th 5-year plan, we expect the Government to increase infrastructure construction. We forecast CNY950bn railway fixed assets investment (FAI), representing an 18.8% YoY growth. China’s active overseas investment through its One Belt One Road initiative will benefit Chinese construction and equipment companies’ orderbooks from FY15 and P&L from FY16. We upgraded CSR (1766 HK, BUY, TP: HKD14.66) to BUY after the announcement of the merger with CNR (6199 HK, BUY, TP: HKD16.28). We maintain BUY on China Railway Group (CRG) (390 HK, BUY, TP: HKD7.78) and China State Construction International (CSCI) (3311 HK, BUY, TP: HKD14.63) on their leading position in China’s railway and affordable housing construction industry respectively. Our new Top Picks are CNR, CSR and CSCI, given their lagged share price performance in the past three months. Ride The Wind – Chase The Laggards Indonesian president Joko Widodo announced on 16 Jan that the sales price of cement produced by state-owned cement companies will be reduced by IDR3,000/sack, equivalent to 8.1% of the ex-factory price. The lower sales price was likely triggered by the fall in energy costs. We see this as having limited impact on cement companies’ EBITs, as this is likely partially offset by lower energy costs that account for 45-50% of cost of goods manufactured (COGM). However, we view the Government’s intervention on cement pricing as negative to the industry. Maintain NEUTRAL on the cement sector, as we expect stiffer competition given a significant increase in cement supply and new entrants into the industry. We like Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ, BUY, TP: IDR18,150), whose energy cost accounts for 51% of COGM. IND_Basic Materials-Building Materials_Sector News Flash_20150119 Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM Platform 6 Results Review, 20 January 2015 Axis REIT (AXRB MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - REITS Market Cap: USD540m Target Price: Price: MYR3.55 MYR3.52 Macro Risks No Surprises Growth Value Axis REIT (AXRB MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 3.90 136 3.70 129 3.50 123 3.30 116 3.10 109 2.90 103 2.70 3 96 0 0 . 2 0 0 Axis REIT’s 4Q14 results came in within our estimates but slightly . 0 below consensus. Maintain NEUTRAL and MYR3.55 TP (0.8% upside), 0 pending a briefing later today. The REIT announced total FY14 DPU of 0 19.75 sen, up 6.8% YoY. It has also completed some of its proposed acquisitions back in December, and we expect these assets to start contributing positively from FY15 onwards. 3 2 2 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 1 Jan-14 Vol m 1 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) EPF KWAP 1.71m/0.49m -4.8 0.8 2.85 - 3.70 57 548 13.6 7.2 2 . 2 0 . 2 Within expectations. Axis REIT’s 4Q14 core net profit of MYR19.3m (+2.3% QoQ, -9.9% YoY) brought FY14 core net profit to MYR81.3m (3.8% YoY), in line with our estimates but slightly below consensus. The REIT announced a distribution per unit (DPU) of 4.15 sen for 4Q14, bringing total FY14 DPU to 19.75 sen, up 6.8% YoY. The REIT also announced a revaluation gain of MYR5.1m this quarter. Updates on new acquisitions. Axis REIT announced in December that it has completed the acquisitions of Axis MRO Hub, Axis Shah Alam DC3 and the sale and leaseback of the industrial facility in SiLC, Johor. In addition, it has also completed the placement of 83.6m new units as part-funding for the said acquisitions. Recall that Axis REIT has accepted a letter offer to purchase an industrial facility in Prai for a total consideration of MYR38m. Given that the acquisitions were only completed in December, we expect the assets to only contribute significantly from 1Q15 onwards. 4Q14 gearing was stable at about 32.8%, still below Axis REIT’s internal gearing cap of 35%. Earnings forecast. We revise our FY15/16 earnings forecasts by less than 5% after updating our FY14 numbers. We also introduce our FY17 figures. Maintain NEUTRAL. Our DDM-based TP is maintained at MYR3.55, pending a briefing later today. We believe that more yield-accretive acquisitions could be in the cards going forward to further drive earnings growth. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Absolute (2.8) (2.8) (3.0) (0.9) 25.7 Total turnover (MYRm) 144 140 175 178 180 Relative (1.8) (4.4) (0.5) 6.0 29.5 Net property income (MYRm) 123 118 151 153 155 Reported net profit (MYRm) 87 82 106 109 111 Total distributable income (MYRm) 87 82 106 109 111 DPS (MYR) 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.20 DPS growth (%) (0.5) 6.8 (1.5) 2.2 1.7 Recurring P/E (x) 18.5 21.5 18.1 17.7 17.4 P/B (x) Shariah compliant Alia Arwina +603 9207 7608 [email protected] 1.56 1.45 1.62 1.62 1.62 Dividend Yield (%) 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 Return on average equity (%) 8.6 7.0 8.5 9.1 9.3 Return on average assets (%) 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 5.6 4.61 4.39 4.66 4.67 4.65 (5.6) (5.8) 0.0 Interest coverage ratio (x) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 7 Company Update, 20 January 2015 Eastern & Oriental (EAST MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property- Real Estate Market Cap: USD772m Target Price: Price: MYR2.12 MYR2.48 Macro Risks Penetrating Further Into London Growth Value Eastern & Oriental (EAST MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 3.30 173 3.10 163 2.90 153 2.70 143 2.50 133 2.30 123 2.10 113 1.90 103 1.70 30 93 20 15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 5 Jan-14 Vol m 10 Source: Bloomberg 4.57m/1.34m 33.1 -14.5 1.91 - 3.18 54 1,112 22.0 10.6 7.3 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 10.2 5.5 (4.3) (17.1) 27.2 Relative 11.2 3.9 (1.8) (10.2) 31.0 Shariah compliant Loong Kok Wen, CFA +603 9207 7614 [email protected] Another project in London. Eastern & Oriental (E&O) announced its proposed acquisition of two multi-storey office buildings located on a site of 1.2 acres in London at a purchase consideration of GBP57m (or MYR308.9m). Further diversification. According to the announcement, the potential redevelopment of the two connected buildings could be worth GBP129m based on a total net internal area of 135,000 sqf (about GBP952 psf). Hence, this suggests that the acquisition cost is about 44% of GDV, slightly higher than the previous acquisition of Esca House (about 34%), but we think there could still be some upside potential to the ASP and hence GDV. Nevertheless, given the challenging market conditions locally, we think it makes sense for the local developers to diversify out of Malaysia. Funding is crucial. While this new London project will bring in higher development GDV to E&O’s portfolio, we are cautious on the funding commitment. The balance of the acquisition cost (85%) will be payable to the vendor on 31 Mar, being the completion of the proposed acquisition. E&O indicates that 70% of the purchase consideration will be funded via bank borrowings. Hence, given the additional MYR216.3m new debt, we estimate that E&O’s net gearing will rise to about 0.5x. Earnings forecasts. We maintain our earnings projections as this redevelopment project may start only in FY17, as design and conceptual works as well as obtaining the planning permission could take up to one year. Interest expense and rental income from one of the buildings should roughly offset each other. Maintain NEUTRAL. The ex-date (20 Jan) for the 1-for-10 bonus issue may have contributed to the recent strength in share price. Given the incremental RNAV and the adjustment for bonus issue, our TP is revised to MYR2.12 (from MYR2.27 prior to ex-date), based on an unchanged 50% discount to RNAV. Maintain NEUTRAL. Forecasts and Valuations Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15F Mar-16F Mar-17F Total turnover (MYRm) 606 497 528 655 889 Reported net profit (MYRm) 130 113 106 134 173 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 120 83 106 134 173 Recurring net profit growth (%) 84.5 (30.6) 27.6 25.6 29.4 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.11 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.14 DPS (MYR) 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 Recurring P/E (x) 23.4 33.8 27.8 23.2 17.9 P/B (x) 2.03 1.91 2.01 1.90 1.77 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 Return on average equity (%) 9.7 7.9 7.0 8.4 10.2 Return on average assets (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 . 3 0 . 2 0 0 . 2 0 0 While E&O’s new purchase in London should bring in higher . 0 development GDV, we are cautious on the overall funding commitment 0 for this acquisition as well as the reclamation for Seri Tanjung Pinang 2, 0 which is due to start in 2Q15. Maintain NEUTRAL with a revised TP of MYR2.12 (6% downside vs ex-dividend price). Post-acquisition, we expect E&O’s net gearing to rise to about 0.5x from 0.31x as at 2QFY15. 25 Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Sime Darby Dato' Terry Tham GK Goh Source: Company data, RHB 5.6 4.6 3.9 4.3 5.1 34.3 29.7 46.4 42.7 54.2 (28.1) (35.7) (16.8) Powered by EFATM Platform 8 Results Review, 20 January 2015 Quill Capita Trust (QUIL MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - REITS Market Cap: USD133m Target Price: Price: MYR1.25 MYR1.22 Macro Risks Organic Growth Still Flattish Growth Value Quill Capita Trust (QUIL MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 1.30 112 1.25 108 1.20 105 1.15 101 1.10 97 1.05 93 1.00 90 0.95 86 0.90 6 82 0 0 . 1 0 0 QCT’s full-year results came in within expectations. Maintain NEUTRAL . 0 and DDM-based MYR1.25 TP (2.5% upside). The Platinum Sentral 0 acquisition has been further delayed until end-March or early April, 0 although both QCT and MRCB remain committed to sealing the deal. We continue to expect flattish organic growth going forward due to the soft office rental market. In line. Quill Capita Trust’s (QCT) MYR34.2m FY14 core net profit (1.1% YoY) was in line with our/consensus full-year forecasts. Full-year earnings growth remained flattish due to the persistent soft office rental market, while higher repair and maintenance costs incurred squeezed FY14 net property income margins slightly to 75.9% (FY13: 77.2%). A 4.28 sen dividend was declared for 2H14, bringing total DPU to 8.38 sen, similar to last year’s distribution. Renewals remained decent, as almost all tenancies due to expire in FY14 were renewed. QCT has also renewed 2% of the 26% due to expire in 2015. That said, we expect rental reversions to remain flattish, given the persistent challenging office market. Gearing ratio remained stable at 35.1%. QCT also recorded a MYR6.1m revaluation gain on its assets. Further delays in Platinum Sentral’s acquisition. The acquisition of Platinum Sentral from Malaysian Resources Corp (MRCB) (MRC MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR1.40) is now targeted to only be completed in endMarch or early April. This is because there have been some delays in the fulfilment of the condition precedents. That said, management is confident that this is unlikely to be a deal breaker and has reiterated that both QCT and MRCB remain committed to sealing the deal. 5 4 3 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 1 Jan-14 Vol m 2 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) CapitaCommercial Trust Quill Group 0.20m/0.06m 3.3 2.5 1.01 - 1.24 40 390 30.0 30.0 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 4.3 5.2 6.1 2.5 2.5 Relative 5.3 3.6 8.6 9.4 6.3 Shariah compliant 1 . 2 0 . 1 Forecasts. We revise our FY15-16 numbers by less than 5% after factoring in the delay in the completion of the acquisition as well as after updating our FY14 numbers. We also introduce our FY17 forecasts. Maintain NEUTRAL. We reiterate that QCT may continue to face some underlying risks over the short term. These include: i) the office space oversupply situation, ii) high post-acquisition gearing, and iii) uncertainties arising from a change in management. Hence, we maintain our NEUTRAL call and DDM-based TP of MYR1.25 for now. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F 69 70 107 122 124 Net property income (MYRm) 53.2 53.3 83.8 94.8 96.3 Reported net profit (MYRm) 34.5 34.1 55.9 60.4 61.7 Total distributable income (MYRm) 34.5 34.1 55.9 60.4 61.7 DPS (MYR) 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 Total turnover (MYRm) Dec-17F Alia Arwina +603 9207 7608 DPS growth (%) 0.0 0.0 5.1 (0.3) 2.2 [email protected] Recurring P/E (x) 13.8 14.0 10.9 12.8 13.1 P/B (x) 0.89 0.88 0.82 0.88 0.88 Dividend Yield (%) 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.4 Return on average equity (%) 6.5 6.3 7.7 6.6 6.8 Return on average assets (%) 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.7 3.8 3.47 3.38 3.45 3.09 3.13 14.1 (13.4) 0.0 Interest coverage ratio (x) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 9 Results Review, 20 January 2015 Keppel REIT (KREIT SP) Neutral (Maintained) Property - REITS Market Cap: USD2,929m Target Price: Price: SGD1.18 SGD1.23 Macro Risks Expiry Of Rental Support Dents DPU Growth Value Keppel REIT (KREIT SP) Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 1.35 108 1.30 106 1.25 104 1.20 102 1.15 100 1.10 98 1.05 96 1.00 60 94 0 0 . 2 0 0 4Q14/FY14 DPUs fell 23.4%/8.2% YoY on lower rental support as well as . 0 higher borrowing costs. Reiterate NEUTRAL and DDM-based SGD1.18 0 TP (CoE: 7.3%, TG: 1%), implying a 2.1% total return. All eyes are now 0 on OFC to hit its breakeven rent when its first tranche income support depletes in 1Q15 for the 87.51% stake of the property acquired from Keppel Land on 14 Dec 2011. We have factored in the MBFC Tower 3 acquisition into our estimates. 50 40 30 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 10 Jan-14 Vol m 20 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Keppel Land Bank of New York Mellon DBS Group Holdings 4.87m/3.73m 3.3 -4.1 1.11 - 1.31 58 3,170 42.2 3.4 1.2 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 0.8 2.9 2.9 (3.2) 6.5 Relative 2.7 2.3 (1.3) (2.9) 1.6 Shariah compliant Ong Kian Lin +65 6232 3895 [email protected] 4Q14/FY14 results in line. Keppel REIT (KREIT) posted a 23.4%/8.2% YoY decline in 4Q14/FY14 DPU, meeting 18.7%/96.1% of our full-year estimates. The decrease came on the back of the expiry of rental support for Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) 1 and 2, lesser support contributions from Ocean Financial Centre (OFC), and higher borrowing costs. Portfolio occupancy rate remained unchanged QoQ at 99.3%, but aggregate leverage edged up to 43.3% (3Q14: 42.1%) on the MBFC 3 acquisition. All in, financing cost remained flattish at 2.23%. It renewed and reviewed ~450k sq ft of leases in FY14 at 17% positive rental reversion, with 55.4% of the new leasing demand from tenants outside the financial sector. KREIT will be refreshing 420,000 of leases in FY15. Room to minimise potential income shortfall. The first tranche income support for the 87.51% stake of OFC acquired from Keppel Land (KPLD SP, BUY, TP: SGD3.88) will deplete in 1Q15. Management previously cited the monthly breakeven rent for OFC at SGD12.60-12.70 psf, higher than our estimated average passing rent of SGD9.32 psf for 4Q14. Given the lack of new Grade-A office supply in the central business district from now until 2017, we see room for KREIT to progressively minimise this potential income shortfall. MBFC 3 acquisition completed on 16 Dec. We have factored in the MBFC 3 acquisition into our estimates. We assume a passing rent of SGD9.11 psf/month vis-à-vis the rental support breakeven rent of SGD10.80 psf/month. In addition, we forecast a DPU CAGR of 0.3% over FY14-17, with the expiry of the second income support tranche for OFC (the remaining 12.49% stake) in 2016. Reiterate NEUTRAL with a TP of SGD1.18. Risks to our TP include unfulfilled tenancy replacement for Standard Chartered Bank at MBFC 1 and Royal Bank of Scotland at One Raffles Quay (ORQ), and a further dip in FY15-16 DPU, following early depletion of OFC’s second tranche rental support. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total turnover (SGDm) 174 184 179 195 206 Net property income (SGDm) 312 336 215 235 248 Reported net profit (SGDm) 726 568 245 274 285 Total distributable income (SGDm) 214 206 248 230 237 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07 DPS growth (%) 1.4 (8.2) 7.3 (8.0) 2.3 Recurring P/E (x) 4.6 6.4 16.0 14.4 13.9 0.88 0.87 0.93 0.94 0.95 6.4 5.9 6.3 5.8 5.9 Return on average equity (%) 19.7 13.6 5.6 6.5 6.8 Return on average assets (%) 11.2 8.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 Interest coverage ratio (x) 4.76 4.70 1.60 2.04 2.10 DPS (SGD) Ivan Looi +65 6232 3841 P/B (x) [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 2 Source: Company data, RHB Powered by EFATM Platform 10 REITS 19 January 2015 REITS NEUTRAL Macro Risks The REITs Pulsebeat: Weekly Review Report Growth Value 2 2 2 2 S-REITs segmental performance Office: Retail: Industrial: Hospitality: Healthcare: S-REITs: STI: Outperf. 1D (%) 2D (%) 3D (%) 5D (%) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 3.9 9.2 3.9 18.7 1.5 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.9 5.2 8.0 6.3 17.8 4.1 6.1 (6.9) (0.1) 1.0 (0.9) 1.2 3.7 4.9 2.5 12.1 2.1 1.8 (10.1) (0.0) 0.3 0.1 (0.1) 1.9 3.7 3.6 0.7 1.3 (16.8) 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.1 3.2 5.8 0.0 10.4 1.1 1.1 (11.2) 0.4 1.1 0.7 1.6 4.0 6.9 3.5 14.7 2.5 2.5 (7.6) (1.1) (0.8) (1.2) (1.1) 0.6 4.2 (0.3) 4.9 (1.9) (1.9) (4.4) 2.7 3.8 9.8 4.4 4.4 (3.2) 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.8 1M 3M (%) (%) 3.4 6M 12M MTD YTD (%) (%) (%) (%) (2.1) 22 May 2013 (2.0) Blue denotes best-performing; Red denotes worst-performing Source: Bloomberg The continual flattening of the yield-curve will benefit more REITs than developers in our view. Most REITs have hedged their interest rates risk (usu. 3-yr SOR) to fixed rates over the coming 1-3 years. According to their sensitivity analysis, a 50bps increase in interest rate will hit their DPU by circa 1-3%. On the other hand, residential mortgage loans are typically pegged to 3-mth SIBOR. Its recent spike is likely to dampen private home sales even further, posing downside risk to developers. For 1H15, we do not expect any major roadblock that may derail the low SG 10-yr govt yields (risk-free rate); already turning south of 2%. Low DPU growth may persist, but we do not expect a significant downside risk to property prices in 1H15, especially in the office and retail subsectors. S-REITs segmental spreads (bps) 800 700 0.85 600 0.72 0.80 493 491 0.94 0.81 500 400 350 300 375 375 3.08 2.77 2.66 2.55 3.66 200 100 181 181 0.95 0 Risk-f ree 181 Retail 181 1.41 1.13 Office Healthcare Yield Spreads Adj. Beta 181 0.97 1.18 Hospitality Industrial Cost of Borriwng (%) P/B Source: Bloomberg Most geared S-REITs 50% 45.7% 45% 42.1% 41.7% 39.8% 40% 38.2% 38.0% 37.7% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% MAGIC MCT ASHT OUTCT FHT KREIT 0% VIT 5% Source: Companies *All prices as of morning 19 Jan 2015 OSK-DMG Asia commentary. It was a mostly upbeat week for the Regional REITs in its second full trading week in 2015. Except for Australia and Korea, most markets saw weekly rises in price performance. The upmarkets in descending order include JP (J-REITs: +3.7% WoW), HK (HK-REITs: +3.4% WoW), SG (S-REITs: +1.6% WoW), MY (M-REITs: +1.1% WoW) etc. The only down markets were AU (A-REITs: -2.1% WoW) and KR (K-REITs: -1.3% WoW). Looking at year to date performance, with the flattening of the yield curves, the momentum carried forward from last year remained unabated, with Western REITs charging up the league tables, while Asia-Pac REITs are playing catch-up On the S-REITs front, the Retail REITs outperformed again (+2.9% WoW) for two consecutive weeks, this time driven by CMT, FRT, MAGIC and SPH REIT, which were up 5.8%, 4.1%, 2.6% and 2.4% WoW respectively. Hospitality REITs was the only down segment (-0.1% WoW), dragged down by FHT and ART by -1.7% WoW and -0.4% WoW respectively. CMT, which was up 5.8% WoW, was the best performing S-REIT, while FHT, down 1.7% WoW, fared the worst. 5D ADTV at SGD112m was much higher than last year’s average of SGD70-80m, indicating keen investors’ interest following the regional dips in 10-yr yields. Macro Indicators. Risk-free rate for SG fell another 33.9bps WoW to 1.81%, while US was down 7.0bps WoW to 1.84%. 10yr yields have effectively given back all of their taper tantrum gains and are approaching near-term lows. The unabated drop in oil prices is one of the reasons behind this. Key rates and forex 3-mth SIBOR (%): 10-yr SG Gov yield (%): USDSGD exchange: 0.64 1.81 1.3267 P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%) Dec-14F Dec-14F Dec-14F SGD2.50 13.0 1.1 6.6 BUY SGD1.17 SGD1.21 14.2 1.2 7.5 NEUTRAL CapitaCommercial Trust SGD1.66 SGD1.85 35.4 1.0 4.9 BUY CapitaMall Trust SGD1.98 SGD2.10 13.1 1.1 5.6 BUY CDL Hospitality Trusts SGD1.70 SGD1.78 13.3 1.0 6.3 NEUTRAL Keppel REIT SGD1.23 SGD1.18 16.3 0.9 6.1 NEUTRAL Mapletree Logistics Trust SGD1.18 SGD1.22 9.0 1.2 6.4 NEUTRAL OUE Hospitality Trust SGD0.92 SGD0.97 14.0 1.0 7.5 BUY Starhill Global REIT SGD0.82 SGD0.91 15.3 0.9 6.2 BUY Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust SGD1.79 SGD2.00 19.7 0.9 4.8 BUY Company Name Price Target Ascendas REIT SGD2.24 Cache Logistics Trust Ong Kian Lin +65 6232 3895 [email protected] Source: Bloomberg Ivan Looi +65 6232 3841 [email protected] See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB *Prices as of morning of 19 Jan 2015 Rating 11 Company Update, 19 January 2015 Ananda Development (ANAN TB) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Market Cap: USD354m Target Price: Price: THB4.20 THB3.48 Macro Risks Second-Highest Condo Presales In 2014 Growth Value Ananda Development (ANAN TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 4.80 236 4.30 213 3.80 190 3.30 167 2.80 145 2.30 122 1.80 99 1.30 300 76 200 150 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Vol m 50 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Chanond Ruangkritya Thai NVDR 47.5m/1.46m 35.6 20.7 1.59 - 4.36 42 3,333 50.1 4.1 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 6.1 7.4 (8.9) 18.4 91.2 Relative 4.4 3.2 (8.7) 18.9 74.2 Shariah compliant Wanida Geisler +66 2862 9748 [email protected] Meets 2014 presales target of THB20bn. Ananda Development (Ananda) achieved 2014 gross presales of THB20.9bn (condominium (condo): THB18.5bn, landed property: THB2.4bn). Nett presales, on the other hand, came in 17% lower at THB17.3bn. We note that Ananda raised its presales target to THB20bn from around THB10bn set in early 2014 after the successful launch of four new condo projects worth a combined THB15bn in 3Q14 (73% take-up rate). For 2014, Ananda is ranked no.2 in terms of condo presales, just behind LPN Development (LPN TB, BUY, TP: THB27.00). Optimistic 2015 guidance. Ananda plans to launch 12 new projects worth a total of THB29bn in 2015, up from four projects worth a total of THB15bn in 2014. Also, the company estimates full-year presales of THB22.5bn-23.5bn (up from THB20.9bn in 2014). Revenue is set in the range of THB12bn-12.5bn (up from THB9.5bn-10.5bn in 2014). In addition, Ananda expects its gross margin to improve 1ppt to 34% in 2015 from 33% in 2014 (see Figure 3). 3-year bottomline CAGR of 24%. 2015 is likely to be another challenging year. Its guidance looks bullish amid the current slowdown in demand. Moreover, only 38% of its full-year revenue target is in hand as backlog. We note that the majority of its current THB26.7bn backlog will be realised as revenue in 2016-2017. Therefore, we opt for more conservative assumptions, with 2015/2016 revenue of THB11bn/THB14bn respectively, 10%/20% lower than Ananda’s guidance. Hence, our bottomline growth forecast is cut to 18.6% YoY for 2015 (from 24% previously). For 2016, we expect its earnings to surge 31% YoY mainly due to the completion of four projects worth a total of THB13bn (including the THB6.8bn Ideo Q Chula-Samyan condo project in a joint-venture with Mitsui Fudosan). We expect average 3-year earnings growth of 24% per annum, higher than the sector’s 15%. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (THBm) 5,661 5,103 9,173 9,694 11,097 Reported net profit (THBm) (317) (199) 811 991 1,176 Recurring net profit (THBm) (122) 79 906 1,030 1,176 Recurring net profit growth (%) 104.9 1040.6 13.7 14.2 Recurring EPS (THB) (0.12) 0.03 0.27 0.31 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.07 DPS (THB) na Recurring P/E (x) na 117 13 11 10 P/B (x) na 2.29 1.97 1.65 1.38 Dividend Yield (%) Return on average equity (%) Return on average assets (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 . 3 0 . 2 0 0 . 1 0 0 Ananda achieved the second-highest condo presales in 2014. Maintain . 0 BUY with a new THB4.20 TP (from THB3.70), implying 20.7% upside, 0 based on a higher 12x P/E (from 10x). It expects 2014 earnings to come 0 in higher than consensus estimates on its effective cost control. Our 2015/2016 revenue forecasts are 10%/20% lower than its guidance. Nevertheless, we expect 3-year earnings CAGR of 24% per annum, higher than the sector average of 15%. 250 100 Source: Company data, RHB 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 (442.8) (8.0) 14.8 15.3 15.2 (3.4) (2.2) 7.4 6.6 6.2 (5018.8) 0.1 (12.7) 89.6 94.8 (0.3) (7.2) Powered by EFATM Platform 12 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. 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