Markets Roundup Research 1 9 Ja n u ar y 2 0 1 5 Swiss surprised the markets as eurozone QE nears CONTENTS In a surprise move, the Swiss SNB attracted all attention by cutting the Market Movers 2 target Libor rate to -75bps and abandoning the euro cap (p.2 – p.6). Economics Weekly Calendar 7 The Central Bank Policies 8 programmes and 30-year US Treasury and German Bund yields. Forecast Table 9 Chart of the Week shows the US Federal Reserve’s QE Financial markets are nervously waiting for Thursday when the ECB is expected to ease its monetary policy stance once again. The ‘consensus view’ is that the ABS and covered bond purchase programmes will be Interest Rates (3M – 1yr) complemented by a corporate and sovereign QE programme (see also 10 the eurozone part of this MR). In other words, the ECB will have a hard Gov’t Bond Yields (2yr – 10yr) time to positively surprise the markets on Thursday as expectations are 11 running high. Interest Rate & Bond Futures Even though market participants already anticipate further monetary 12 easing by the ECB, market-based inflation expectations have failed to pick-up, partly due to the continuous decline in oil prices. Judged from Equities, Currencies & Commodities those inflation expectations, the ECB has lost some credibility on its 13 inflation mandate over recent months. This makes us somewhat skeptical DATA RELEASES that a new QE programme will boost inflation expectations this time. What has also drawn our attention is the long-part of the yield curve. As United States the chart shows, the Fed’s QE programmes were - although temporarily - 20/01 Housing market index successfully in boosting yields on the long-part of the curve as inflation 21/01 Building permits/starts expectations also ticked up every time. We can also see that the pre- 23/01 Existing home sales announcement of QE2 raised yields in 2010. On the contrary, the ECB’s verbal and actual actions (e.g. Draghi’s Eurozone ‘whatever it takes speech’, LTRO’s, TLTROs, ABS and covered bond 20/01 Producer prices (Ger) purchase 20/01 ZEW index (Ger) 22/01 Government debt/deficit and the Chart of the Week: Will the ECB raise 30-year yields this time? Percentage 2014: The year of ECB actions and announcements “Whatever it takes speech” 6 QE2 preannouncement United Kingdom 22/01 Public finances of programme? 23/01 PMIs 21/01 BoE minutes pre-announcement Or will the ECB surprise the markets with an unexpectedly large QE 23/01 Business survey (Fr) 21/01 Labour market report effectively actual ECB announcement on QE next Thursday then make a difference? 22/01 ECB meeting 25/01 Greece elections programmes, sovereign QE) had no upward effect on long German bond yields. Will the LTRO OMT announcement 5 4 3 23/01 Retail sales 2 RESEARCH 1 Duncan de Vries 0 Erwin Langewis E: [email protected] 2007 2008 Source: Bloomberg Important disclosures appear on the final page of this document 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 St art of QE programmes ECB act ions/ announcements US 30-yr Treasury yield German 30-yr Bund yield 2015 M ARKET MOVERS: REVIEW & PREVIEW development is taking place. The tide is clearly going out and it is when the tide goes out that you learn United States who has been swimming naked as Warren Buffett once famously quipped. The extremely easy monetary policies pursued by the In that sense, it seems no coincidence that ever since major central banks and in particular by the US the Federal Reserve started to announce tapering of Federal Reserve in the years after the banking crisis its QE programme one and half a year ago that of 2008 have sown the seeds for another financial Emerging markets are showing gradually more and debacle in the immediate future. In that sense, last more instability and slowing growth. Moreover, the week’s volatility in the currency markets, due to the Fed’s final termination of its QE programme last Swiss National Bank’s decision to break the peg of autumn and its stated intention to start raising the Swiss franc with the euro, coming just on heels of interest rates in 2015 have coincided with this sharp a crash in the Russian ruble last month, may have upturn of the US dollar and the downturn in oil prices, been a next step on the road to a currency crisis. culminating in an ultimately bearish scenario for commodity dependent Emerging Markets and for the Dollar and oil signal crisis is underway USD energy influenced US high yield markets. Not only are falling oil prices going to hurt revenues of oil USD per barrel (inverted axis) 130 120 0 exporting nations badly, but also loans nominated in 20 US dollars that were taken out by firms in Emerging 40 110 60 Market countries will be expensive to service in the 80 currently prevailing strong dollar market paradigm. 100 100 120 In the meantime, two other major central banks have 140 gone berserk on easy money as well. The BoJ has 90 160 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US dollar (broad) index (LS) been on a money printing course over the last WTI oil prices (RS invert ed) few years that weakened the yen substantially The economic recession and collapse of the banking by late 2014 and this promised to be a major system in the West in 2008/9 may have helped to theme for 2015 as well. However, the Japanese drive capital into Emerging Markets and commodity problems have to wait a little while longer, as markets in the post recession era, as they seemed the markets have sniffed out that the situation more promising destinations for capital compared to in the eurozone is of a more immediate concern, the crisis ridden West at the time. However, the thereby reigniting the euro crisis as a major market Federal Reserve’s QE programmes in the years after theme in recent weeks. Confidence in the eurozone 2009 were providing extra fuel to the commodity and has been tarnished by the latest political turmoil in Emerging Market fires, while as a side-effect, it Greece, which after being already 5 years in crisis helped easy modus, may or may not finally leave the eurozone if financing conditions for US shale oil investments. But the left-wing Syriza party wins the parliamentary after the party comes the hangover. elections that are scheduled for Sunday. At the same Judging from the chart above it appears that there is time, the ECB is signalling that it is about to go the a distinctly negative correlation between the US same way as the Fed did and the BoJ has been doing: dollar and the price of oil per barrel. The chart shows printing that the US dollar is weak and oil prices rise when programme, throwing extra oil on an already burning easy money prevails such as in the 2003-2007 period euro. and earlier this decade. It also shows that after All in all, the situation on global markets appears periods where easy monetary conditions have been to favour the US dollar as the least ugly financing additional oil output via money via a (partly) sovereign QE the norm for some time, risk aversion arrives as a currency shock, coinciding with a surge in the US dollar and a surprised to see a further strengthening of the collapse in oil prices. Not coincidentally, the crisis of world’s reserve currency in the coming weeks if 2008 was characterised by these trends, but we can the ECB indeed throws all caution to the wind and as such we should not also see that since the second half of 2014 the same Markets Roundup 2 19 January 2015 be and goes all in with QE and elections in Greece Retail sales still strong on annual basis result in an unfavourable outcome for the EU. Domestically, macroeconomic influenced by recent market data have Percentage change on a year ago 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 1999 been developments. The relatively strong dollar and weak oil prices are having their predicted effects on business and consumer confidence levels in the US: average business confidence levels (for large businesses) have fallen from recent highs, while consumer confidence 2001 2003 2005 2007 Retail sales surveys are improving. The ISM manufacturing index, 2009 2011 2013 Personal consumpt ion on goods which is based on a survey among many large and Although growth seems OK for the US, inflation has export oriented manufacturing firms, dropped from been falling sharply due to lower oil prices. The its high of 58.7 in November to 55.5 to December. In Consumer Price Index for December, which was contrast, the NFIB small business confidence indicator published last Friday revealed that the CPI dropped reached a multi-year high of 100.4 in December. 0.4% compared to November and that the year-on- Small the year rate fell to 0.7%. Looking forward, it can be economy are not that much impacted by weakening expected that the year-on-year CPI rate will fall business owners’ attitudes towards export prospects on a strong dollar, while the drop in further in the coming months towards zero percent. gasoline prices obviously does help them to keep Albeit core inflation (CPI excluding the volatile food costs down. The same can be said about consumer and energy prices) is still at 1.6%, the doves sentiment. The University of Michigan index surged to within the FOMC will be up in arms to propose a multi-year high last week, reflecting lower oil prices delay of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as and relatively robust job growth (see chart below). headline inflation is absent. Financial market participants have already priced out many of the Small business and consumer sentiment is up! previously anticipated rate hikes last few weeks due to Index 120 recent market turmoil and falling inflation. Although it appears that the majority of the 110 FOMC would like to raise the Fed funds target 100 90 rate from the current lows, still the extremely 80 low inflation environment and the recent bouts 70 of volatility in financial markets will likely 60 prevent the Fed from raising rates more than 50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 NFIB small business conf idence two times this year by 25bps. As such we have 2014 lowered our end of year forecast by 25 bps towards M ichigan consumer sent iment index Nonetheless, retail sales figures 0.75%. disappointed in December according to the advanced estimate that This week’s agenda will include a number of housing was released last week. Still, that may have been just market related figures. The NAHB index (on Tuesday) a blip in an otherwise upward trend. The chart on the is expected to climb from 57 to 58 and housing starts right shows that year-on-year growth in both retail and building permits are due for Wednesday and are sales and personal spending on goods is growing at a expected to confirm that the US housing market is rate of around 3.5% and as headline inflation has generally moving sideways. collapsed close to zero this is likely the inflation adjusted growth rate as well. Real personal spending growth will likely continue to be relatively strong on Eurozone average into early 2015, helping the US economy to grow at a rate of 3% in Q1. We fully understand why the ECB wants to embark on another round of quantitative easing: it has a price stability mandate, which is defined as maintaining inflation rates “below, but Markets Roundup 3 19 January 2015 close to 2%”. The CPI inflation rate is not close to new that percentage. tightening Whether more monetary easing (or, financial and economic monetary crisis. policy Accordingly, will become more increasingly difficult without triggering a crisis, specifically, QE) helps the economy is another just as that coming with no announcement on question. With only a few days before the ECB Thursday is no option anymore. meeting, we are discussing the implications of a large scale ECB purchasing programme for the eurozone Whether QE will help the economy in the short-term economy. is dubious as well as the link between rising financial asset prices and the ‘real’ economy so to say is As the ECB has an inflation/price stability mandate, weaker in the eurozone than in the US. The chart its logical to start the discussion with this topic. shows that the savings rate in the eurozone In the past, we regularly discussed the effects of QE hasn’t strongly responded to wealth changes in on official price indices and inflation expectations the past. (e.g. in the Special Note QE: no panacea of 5 December). We concluded that official price indices Wealth effects haven’t boosted spending drift and inflation expectations remained subdued Percentage EUR 1,000bn (expectations rose only temporary at best), 15.5 50 despite massive QE programmes, but that there 15.0 45 has been widespread inflation in financial 14.5 40 14.0 35 in 13.5 30 December and the GDP deflator rising at an annual 13.0 25 markets (i.e. rising asset prices). Moreover, with core CPI inflation at 0.7% pace of 0.9% in Q3, we see no positive economic 12.5 2000 effects of raising inflation measures to 2%. 20 2002 2004 2006 2008 Household saving rate (LS) 2010 2012 2014 Household asset s (housing and f inancial asset s) (RS) Nevertheless, the ECB may hope that the programme itself will support economic growth. Such support can The ongoing deleveraging process is one reason not come from wealth effects, lower interest rates or the to expect much from the positive effects of QE. That improvement said, banks do not seem to want another round of purchasing power via a lower exchange rate. of liquidity given the relatively limited take-up in the First, starting with so-called wealth effects and ECB’s TLTROs even though another EUR 210bn of the interest rates; asset prices have been boosted to old LTRO’s will be repaid this and next month. Excess elevated levels due to the creation of new money by liquidity in the eurozone’s financial system is close to central banks over recent years. Valuations of most EUR 186bn. In such an environment, pushing extra risky asset classes are above longer-run levels, while liquidity in the markets can only result in bond yields for the public and private sector are close misallocations of capital. The past years, financial to or at record low levels (e.g. 5-year German markets have been the main beneficiaries and it is government bond yields being negative is - besides therefore tempting to point to that direction again, being a historical anomaly - an indirect tax for but money can easily ‘run’ to other places. Indeed, citizens). Such policies promote a misallocation of we previously expressed our concerns about rising capital, lowering longer-term growth potential and volatility not only in financial markets, but also in FX making the economy vulnerable to shocks (e.g. markets. triggered by a collapse of asset prices). Can and should the ECB raise asset prices to even higher As levels? depreciating since May last year and it is probably no regards FX markets, the euro has been The risk that financial markets become even coincidence that this was the moment that Draghi more hinted for further actions a month later. Monetary addicted to central banks than they already are - due to more money ‘printing’ - is policy high. Boosting asset prices via QE increase the especially as the extremeness of those policies poses importance of financial markets for the economy as a risks for volatility in currencies. Nevertheless, the whole as a collapse of asset prices could result in a ECB can increase inflationary pressures via the Markets Roundup 4 is very important for FX developments, 19 January 2015 depreciation of the euro as it raises import prices. especially for the eurozone. Last week’s decision felt And that is another effect that is not necessarily a a little bit like a ‘Lehman’ moment. More than ever positive one. before (to quote Draghi) it’s up to the ECB to do Indeed, a falling exchange rate helps to improve the whatever it takes to save the euro! competitive position of exporters, but the fact is that It was a fascinating, non-anticipated move from the the current central bank that raised questions about the account surplus (i.e. it exports more than it credibility of the SNB (three days earlier the SNB’s imports). vice-chairman said that “we are convinced that the eurozone already Domestic has demand a large has to increase, exporters don’t need additional support. minimum exchange rate must remain the cornerstone of Not an export, but domestic demand problem our monetary policy”), the effects on the economy (e.g. banks that operate in other countries, export industry and tourism) and the deflationary Percentage of GDP 3.0 impact. Moreover, there are concerns about non- 2.0 Swiss banks with exposures to loans in Swiss francs 1.0 in Poland and Austria. Swiss equity prices declined and the 10!-year bond yield went temporarily 0.0 negative. -1.0 -2.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 As regards the deflationary impact, CPI inflation was 2014 already Eurozone current account balance -0.1% (yoy) in December. Apparently, something happened that made the Swiss fear for the Second, but a related topic, imported inflation makes consequences of maintaining the pledge. It’s quite products and services more expensive. This hurts the easy to see what that may have been (see chart). purchasing power of consumers and raise costs of The Swiss probably acknowledged that maintaining businesses. In other words, it is dubious whether a the cap was the work of a madman as the ECB keeps falling currency boosts national income and on pushing the euro down. In our view, it was therefore solves the domestic demand problem. another example of the limits of monetary policy. Second, it confirms our expectation that FX Indeed, there may be another reason for engaging in volatility will be higher this year… all caused by sovereign QE: monetising public debt. It is highly central bank aggressiveness. controversial and not consistent with EU primary law, All in, this was certainly not a happy start of the year. but we can’t help to think that public debt purchases have a lot in common with pure debt monetisation whereas in potential current circumstances. purchases under Limits of monetary policy in Switzerland? And, the % of nominal GDP OMT 90 programme were subject to certain conditions, this 80 week we may see the ECB announcing a 60 70 QE 50 programme without any conditions attached. Will 40 governments really spend the same amounts as if 30 borrowing rates would be at higher levels (i.e. 20 10 without the ECB)? We doubt they will. 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 SNB asset s Staying in the world of FX. The Swiss central 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 M onet ary base (M 0) bank (SNB) abandoned the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 on Thursday. The decision to lower the interest Two events will dominate this week. First, the ECB rate on sight deposit account balances that exceed a meeting will be on Thursday. A big buyer of euro given exemption threshold of -0.75% couldn’t initially assets (the SNB) withdrew from the markets a week prevent an appreciation of the Swiss franc of 41% before the ECB is expected to announce actions that against franc basically contradict the Bundesbank’s norms and weakened again, but remained close to 1.03 per values. A corporate, government and potentially euro. This decision has been huge for the Swiss, but agency bond purchase programme is expected to be the Markets Roundup euro. Somewhat later, the 5 19 January 2015 announced with purchases taking place via national Apart from the political landscape, macroeconomic central banks (see also the MR of last week). data has softened a bit the past months. Yet, with Second, the Greek elections on Sunday will attract PMI attention. Opposition party Syriza is still leading ‘neutral’ 50 level and the continuing strong opinion polls over the ruling conservative business surveys still well above the New improvement of labour market conditions, there Democracy. Based on the polls, these parties will not is nothing to be too worried about for the short- be able to secure an outright majority (151 seats) term. and therefore require support from other parties even What is, however, important to consider is that though seats. the UK’s private and public sector debt levels Additionally, whether Syriza can secure an outright are at elevated levels. The housing market, for majority will also depend on the percentage of the example, vote that goes to parties that don’t enter parliament housing market survey confirmed last week. The (i.e. not obtain at least 3% of the votes) as those survey suggests that prices in London may stagnate the winner receives 50 ‘bonus’ remains under pressure as the RICS votes will be ‘redistributed’ to the other parties. at Accordingly, uncertainty could remain also after the materialisation of risks (e.g. political events) could election, which is bad news for the country as there easily trigger a crisis event. are tax Developments in the rest in the world, combined with payments and banks that having resorted to the low CPI inflation rates, are therefore probably one of Emergency Liquidity Assistance programme. the main reasons why market participants started to As regards macroeconomic data, the German ZEW push back a first rate hike to Q1 of next year out of investor confidence index and PMIs will attract most fear for the impact on the UK economy. already reports about people delaying best the coming months. Consequently, a attention. Small improvements are expected. That said, CPI inflation was only 0.5% in December after 1.0% in November. Expect the United Kingdom annual rate to drop into negative territory the coming months. And with the BoE having an inflation Given all the fireworks in the rest of the world, mandate, we have become sceptical about a June developments in the UK are getting relatively little rate hike as well, even though the core inflation rate attention at the moment. rose 0.1% to 1.3%. Therefore, we now expect a But this will probably change the coming months as first the general elections will be held on 7 May. Most polls underlining that risks are clearly for an even show a small lead for the Labour party over the later rate hike. 25bps rate hike only in Q4, while Tories/Conservatives, each grabbing close to 30% of the votes. Indeed, Cameron was heavily criticised This week’s agenda will focus on the labour market for not explicitly mentioning immigration or health report. Even though employment growth probably services as a top six issue of the Tories last week. slowed in November, it remained solid. Accordingly, Let’s see what this means for support for the party the unemployment rate may decline to 5.9%, while the next few weeks. That said, if this affects the polls, wage growth may pick-up. the UK independence party may be the main The BoE minutes should show whether we were right beneficiary, which is currently on about 16% in the by delaying our expectation for a first rate hike. polls. As a reminder, promised a the Conservative referendum on the Party UK’s law EU membership in 2017, while the UKIP party is no fan of the EU at all as we know (they want a BREXIT referendum next year already). Gains in the polls and especially elections for these parties would be a blow for the EU (even though it may ultimately be a blow for the UK as well), which may mean that the EU will get a little bit more flexible towards the UK’s demands the coming months (or years). Markets Roundup 6 19 January 2015 ECONOMIC CALENDAR 19 JANUARY – 23 JANUARY, 2015 UNITED STATES Date Time Tuesday 20 January 16:00 14:30 14:30 14:30 14:30 15:00 17:00 14:30 15:45 16:00 16:00 Wednesday 21 January Thursday 22 January Friday 23 January Indicator US US US US US US US US US US US NAHB Housing Market Index Housing Starts Housing Starts MoM Building Permits Building Permits MoM FHFA House Price Index MoM Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Markit US Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales MoM GE EC EC GE GE EC EC EC EC EC FR GE GE GE EC EC EC BE GE PPI YoY ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Euro Area Q3 Government Deficit ZEW Survey Current Situation ZEW Survey Expectations Euro Area Q3 Government Debt ECB Main Refinancing Rate ECB Deposit Facility Rate ECB Marginal Lending Facility Consumer Confidence Business Confidence PMI Markit Germany Services PMI Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Markit Eurozone Services PMI Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Business Confidence Import Price Index YoY UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK Claimant Count Rate Jobless Claims Change Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Employment Change 3M/3M Bank of England Minutes Public Finances (PSNCR) Public Sector Net Borrowing PSNB ex Banking Groups CBI Trends Total Orders CBI Trends Selling Prices CBI Business Optimism Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY Jan Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Jan Dec Jan P Dec Dec BN Survey Prior 58 1042K 1.30% 1055K 0.30% 0.30% 10 -54 5.07M 2.70% 57 1028K -1.60% 1035K -5.20% 0.60% 8 0.73 53.9 4.93M -6.10% EUROZONE Date Time Tuesday 20 January 08:00 10:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 13:45 13:45 13:45 16:00 08:45 09:30 09:30 09:30 10:00 10:00 10:00 15:00 01/28 Thursday 22 January Friday 23 January BN Survey Prior Dec -1.40% -0.90% Jan Jan 13 40 10 34.9 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% -10.5 95 51.7 52.5 52.4 51 52 51.7 -6.2 -- 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% -10.9 94 51.2 52.1 52 50.6 51.6 51.4 -6.9 -2.10% Indicator Jan-22 Jan-22 Jan-22 Jan A Jan Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan Dec UNITED KINGDOM Date Time Wednesday 21 January 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 10:30 12:00 12:00 12:00 10:30 10:30 Thursday 22 January Friday 23 January BN Survey Prior Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Nov 2.60% -25.0K 1.70% 1.90% 5.90% 74K 2.70% -26.9K 1.40% 1.60% 6.00% 115K Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Dec Dec -9.0B 9.7B 5 --3.40% 3.00% 6.7B 13.4B 14.1B 5 7 8 6.90% 6.40% Indicator Source: Bloomberg News Weekly snapshot of financial market developments in the United States, euro zone and United Kingdom CENTRAL BANK POLICIES United States – FOMC Policy interest rate: Federal funds target rate Next Meetings: 28 January, 18 March, 29 April Last action: -75/100 bps on 16 December 2008 Policy Outlook: The Fed funds rate has been cut to an unprecedented target range of 0-0.25%. Furthermore, the Fed started to purchase assets and after Operation Twist ended in 2012, decided to increase the size of asset purchases per month by a further USD 40bn. The QE3 programme has ended. We expect the first interest rate hike in June 2015. FOMC minutes: 28 January, 18 March, 29 April, 17 June Eurozone – ECB Policy interest rate: Main refinancing rate Next Meetings: 22 January, 5 March, 15 April, 3 June Last action: -10 bps on 4 September 2014 Policy Outlook: The ECB lowered its key policy rates by 10bps in September. The refi rate is at 0.05% (deposit rate at 0.20%) and expected to remain at this level for an extended period. No rate hikes are expected before 2017 at least. In addition to liquidity injections (TLTROs), the ECB is purchasing private sector assets (ABS and covered bonds). As the central bank is still dovish, we anticipate more actions in January. United Kingdom - Bank of England Policy interest rate: Repo rate Next Meetings: 5 February, 5 March, 9 April, 11 May Last action: -50 bps on 5 March 2009 Policy Outlook: Inflation rates are falling due to lower energy prices. We expect the BoE to keep rates unchanged at 0.50% at least till mid-2015. Rate hikes are expected by late-2015, but risks to our forecast are skewed towards a later start. BOE minutes: 21 January, 18 February, 18 March Markets Roundup 8 19 January 2015 FORECAST TABLE 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Yearly averages Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 United States GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (year-on-year) 1.1 2.3 0.9 3.1 -0.5 1.9 1.1 2.6 1.2 2.7 0.9 2.7 0.9 4.2 0.7 3.7 0.3 2.7 0.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.2 Consumer Price Index (year-on-year) 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 Federal funds rate * 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.63 10 yr Treasury yield * 2.61 3.03 2.72 2.53 2.49 2.17 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.30 2.61 2.48 2.08 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.9 -0.4 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.75 0.05 0.05 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.1 1.3 0.1 1,,1 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.3 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.80 1.94 1.56 1.25 0.94 0.67 0.70 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.63 1.11 1.00 0.2 -0.6 0.6 0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.6 0.4 1.4 0.5 1.8 0.3 1.7 -0.7 0.8 1.6 2.8 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.6 2.7 0.7 2.9 0.9 3.2 0.7 3.0 0.5 2.8 0.3 2.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 1.4 0.3 1.3 1.7 3.0 1.7 Eurozone GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (year-on-year) Consumer Price Inflation (year-on-year) ECB refi rate * Germany GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (year-on-year) Consumer Price Inflation (year-on-year) 10 yr bond yield * Netherlands GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (year-on-year) Consumer Price Inflation (year-on-year) United Kingdom GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (year-on-year) Consumer Price Inflation 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.6 1.5 0.4 BoE bank rate * (year-on-year) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.50 0.50 1.00 10 yr bond yield * 2.71 3.03 2.73 2.67 2.36 1.76 1.50 1.80 1.80 2.00 2.34 2.38 1.78 *end of period Markets Roundup 9 19 January 2015 INTEREST RATES (3M – 1YR): ACTUALS & CURVE Policy Interest Rates (%) 3m Interest Rates minus Policy Rate (bps) 7 350 6 300 250 5 200 4 150 3 100 50 2 0 1 -50 0 19/01/2013 19/01/2014 United States -100 19/01/2013 19/01/2015 Eurozone 19/01/2014 United States United Kingdom 3m Interest Rates (%) 19/01/2015 Eurozone United Kingdom 12m minus 3m Interest Rates (%) 7.0 125 6.0 100 75 5.0 50 4.0 25 3.0 0 2.0 -25 1.0 -50 0.0 19/01/2013 19/01/2014 USD Libor Euribor -75 19/01/2013 19/01/2015 19/01/2014 United States GBP Libor 12m Interest Rates (%) 19/01/2015 Eurozone United Kingdom 1 yr Interest Rate Swap Spread (bps) 7.0 250 6.0 225 200 5.0 175 4.0 150 125 3.0 100 2.0 75 50 1.0 25 0.0 19/01/2013 19/01/2014 USD Libor Source: Bloomberg Euribor 0 19/01/2013 19/01/2015 GBP Libor 19/01/2014 Eurozone 19/01/2015 United Kingdom Update: 1/19/15 8:03 GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (2YR – 10YR): ACTUALS & CURVE Markets Roundup 10 19 January 2015 2 yr Benchmark govt Bond Yields (%) 10 yr minus 2 yr govt Bond Yields (%) 4.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 19/01/2013 19/01/2014 United States -1.0 19/01/2013 19/01/2015 Eurozone United Kingdom 19/01/2014 United States 10 yr Benchmark govt Bond Yields (%) Eurozone 19/01/2015 United Kingdom 10 yr Interest Rate Swap Spread (bps) 4.0 100 3.5 75 3.0 50 2.5 2.0 25 1.5 0 1.0 -25 0.5 0.0 19/01/2013 19/01/2014 -50 19/01/2013 19/01/2015 19/01/2014 United States United States Eurozone Eurozone 19/01/2015 United Kingdom United Kingdom Real govt indexed Bond Yields (%) Estimate of Inflation Expectations (%)* 4 0 2 -2 0 -4 19/01/2013 US TIPS 2017 (indexed to CPI) 19/01/2014 FR OATei 2017 (indexed to Euro CPI) -2 19/01/2013 19/01/2015 UK IL Gilts 2017 (indexed to RPI) 19/01/2014 United States (CPI) Eurozone (CPI) 19/01/2015 United Kingdom (RPI) * Difference between nominal government bond yield and inflation-indexed bond yield ("breakeven inflation") with the same maturity (2017) Source: Bloomberg Update: 1/19/15 8:03 INTEREST RATE & BOND FUTURES: MARKET EXPECTATIONS Markets Roundup 11 19 January 2015 United States: 3m Eurodollar* United States: 10yr treasury yield* 3.0 4.0 2.5 3.5 2.0 3.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 Current MAR 15 JUN 15 SEP 15 DEC 15 1.0 Current MAR 16 Euro zone: 3m Euribor MAR 15 JUN 15 SEP 15 Euro zone: 10yr govt Bond Yield 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 Current MAR 15 JUN 15 SEP 15 DEC 15 1.0 Current MAR 16 United Kingdom: 3m Sterling MAR 15 JUN 15 SEP 15 United Kingdom: 10yr GILT Yield 5.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 Current MAR 15 Current ** JUN 15 SEP 15 0.0 Current DEC 15 Two weeks ago MAR 15 JUN 15 One month ago * Forward interest rates and bond yields implied by futures contracts. Source: Bloomberg Markets Roundup Update: 1/19/15 8:03 12 19 January 2015 EQUITIES, CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES Major Equity Markets Major Currencies 2200 1.6 7000 1.0 1.5 2000 1800 0.9 1.4 6000 0.8 1.3 1600 1400 1.2 5000 0.7 1.1 1200 1000 4000 0.6 1.0 800 0.5 0.9 600 19/01/2013 3000 19/01/2015 19/01/2014 S&P 500 (LS) FTSE Eurotop300 (LS) 0.8 19/01/2013 EUR/USD (LS) FTSE100 (RS) Commodity Prices 0.4 19/01/2015 19/01/2014 EUR/GBP (RS) USD/GBP (RS) Oil Price* 150 200 130 180 110 160 90 70 140 50 120 30 100 31/07/2012 10 19/01/2013 31/07/2013 DJAIG Index Source: Bloomberg; Update: 19/01/2014 Spot price (USD) 19/01/2015 Spot price (EUR) 1/19/15 8:03 * West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Cushing Crude Oil Spot Price Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation prepared by NIBC Bank N.V. (“NIBC”) are not historical facts but “forward-looking” statements. 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