Dimensions of the Water-Energy-Food-Security Nexus at the Regional Scale Hydrologidagarna 2014 Stockholm University Jakob Granit, PhD Centre Director & Deputy Director SEI GEF STAP IW Panel Member Structure of presentation 1. 2. 3. 4. Context – WEF Nexus Cases Conclusions Further work Failure of meeting citizen and customer demands – the “bottom billion” Water Water scarcity: Aggregated global water supply gap estimated to be 40% by 2030 assuming no efficiency gains WRG 2030 Climate variability increases water resources challenges More than 75% of river flows are allocated to agriculture, industries or domestic purposes Water resources can be abundant but lack of investment makes them unavailable for exploitation Indicators of water quality degradation • 80% of the world’s population is exposed to high levels of threat to human water security (HWS) – large scale transformation of water systems through land cover change, urbanization, industrialization and hydrologic infrastructure • Vörösmarty et.al., 2010) Dead zones in coastal oceans have spread exponentially since the 1960s – Coastal eutrophication fueled by riverine runoff of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels (Robert J. Diaz & Rutger Rosenberg, 2008) Transboundary freshwater resources – the collective action dilemma • Water (surface & ground) crosses boundaries – – About 279 TB river basins in the world, 45% earth surface (Backer 2011) Political & physical boundaries at local, national & international levels Recognizing: • The political economy in sovereign states differ G – • Only 20% of all multipartite basins feature multilateral organisations, (Dombrowsky,2007) – • Underlying power asymmetries to consider, (Zeitoun and Warner 2006) 7 are basin wide, Cooperation compared to conflict appears to be the norm in TB systems (Giordano and Wolf 2003) Granit 2012 Energy Unequal consumption of energy Nilsson et.al. SEI 20129 Growing energy consumption trends & links to climate change • • World energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 Quadrillion Btu Fossil fuels expected to continue supply much of the energy used worldwide – 85% of global energy supply in 2008 – Availability of shale gas and oil is increasing • Renewable energy is relatively the fastestgrowing source of electricity generation – Globally 13 % of primary energy demand is met by renewable energy – Almost 80 percent of the increase is in hydroelectric power & wind power • Present emission trends put the world plausibly on a path toward 4°C warming within this century. (WB 2012) Source: International Energy Outlook IEO 2010, Reference case Food Crop area available is being reduced FAO, 2011 Fertilizer use in agriculture is increasing significantly FAO Nexus Development opportunities/benefits in the nexus – conceptual model 1. Energy production • Water use in all steps of the thermal energy value chain • Water storage for hydropower • Water for bio fuels 2. Primary production • Agriculture (irrigation & rainfed) • Forestry • Fisheries 3. Industry & urbanization • Domestic use • Industrial use • Waste water treatment • Tourism 4. Ecosystem services • Water quality management • Biodiversity & conservation • Flood & drought protection • Navigation Granit 2012, based on Phillips, D., Allan, A., Claassen, M., Granit, J., Jägerskog, A., Kistin, E., Patrick, M. & Turton, A. (2008). Energy links to water withdrawal & water consumption • Global water withdrawal patterns – low efficency – 70% Agriculture; 20% industry; 10% households (IWMI 2007) • Regional differences & trends in water withdrawal – EU: 44% for energy production, 24% for agriculture, 17% for public water supply, 15% industry (EC 2007) – USA: 40% Irrigation, 39% Thermoelectric generation, 14% Public & domestic supply, 7% Industry (US Department of Energy 2006) • Global consumptive use part of total water withdrawal for electricity generation is about 3-5% (15% of the world’s total water withdrawal, IEO 2012) – Security of supply is important to guarantee power generation – Return flows to be managed; temperature & quality Case South Eastern Baltic Sea Region South Eastern-Baltic Sea Region A micro-region defined by its transboundary waters lacking cooperative frameworks Key water challenges in the micro-region – affects the economy as a whole Supply Deteriorating supply networks Significant losses due to leakage Lack of maintenance Pollution Point source pollution Waste water treatment Solid waste management Diffuse source pollution from agriculture Energy Water for energy (cooling) Energy for water (pumping) Energy for regulation power (pump storage) Health Water related disease Exposure to toxic waste products Environmental change Climate change and hydrology impacts Failing ecosystems Loss of flora and fauna Fisheries affected Development of protected areas Governance EU BSR laws & national law Multiple stakeholders Unclear institutional framework Poor monitoring of natural & water resources Granit, J. J., Lindström, A., Dimitrevsky, V., Guterstam, B., Hellström, M., Kindler, J., Kramen, L., Okruszko, T., Paukstys, B., Smorodinskaya, N. & Sorby, L. (2011). The Water-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus and entry point for Neman cooperation? Water for energy production – In the thermal power production process: pump, cool, treat (nuclear, coal, oil, biomass) – In hydropower generation Energy (electricity) for water management and supply to users – Pump, Treat, Store Ecosystem services – Degradation of watersheds Energy Markets – Price, imports – Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan (BEMIP), BaltLink, Case Euphrates and Tigris Region Options for Cooperative Action in the Euphrates & Tigris Region - A hydro-economic model to support basin-wide dialogue • • • • Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey Lack of cooperative arrangements Major regional issues: salinity, dust and haze, loss of ecosystem values, health and loss of economic opportunities 2 yrs project with government stakeholders & regional organisations – Remote sensing, GIS & publicly available data • • • Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012). Baseline hydropower value: USD 3.5 billion/y Irrigated agriculture USD 4.8 billion/y Shadow values for environmental flows – Range between 286 to 515 million USD • Modelling & results can improve dialogue between riparian countries on regional integration benefits – – Measures to improve water use efficeny, Iraq Nucleus for institutional framework: Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012). Characterization- Hydropower Historical flows at Hit, Iraq 1937-73 vs 1974-98 Characterisation- Irrigated Agriculture Satellite wetland classification – 2000 Case Southern Africa Development Community Southern African Development Community (SADC) Hydropower capacity developed and potential of regional significance 5,500 MW Developed 39,000 MW potential 4,885 MW Developed 13,500 MW potential Africa 63 Transboundary basins 782 MW Developed 1000 MW Pump Storage potential Sources: WB 2009 Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database 2000 SIWI 2010, Paper 16 ORASECOM (verbal) Oil, gas & Coal deposits Wind energy potential Solar energy potential Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) - Mechanism to drive further power system & market integration Conclusions 1. Policy cohesion in energy and water called for • Water is a central component in today’s and tomorrow’s energy mix – Water is critical for fuel production and power generation – Power is needed to manage water and supply it to consumers • World energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 • Water scarcity and quality degradation due to multiple demands – Real issue in many part of the world • Water and energy policies are and have been developed in isolation – Urgent need to break this trend (Europe´s World #21, Special Section on water) Granit, J. (2012) Europe’s World Summer 2012 2. Power planning tools need to assess all available energy and water resources at the appropriate scale • Energy assets such as HEP, oil, coal, wind, solar, and bioenergy are spatially distributed in all regions globally • Water (surface & ground) crosses boundaries – Political & physical boundaries at local, national, & international levels – Upstream & downstream issues • The generation of RE electricity through e.g. hydropower and bioenergy provides a direct feedback loop to water management – HEP and other indigenous power sources provide future price security and reduces foreign exchange requirements for fuel purchases • Using tools such as SEA allows for a systematic, and comprehensive process of evaluating power program development – The environmental effects and its alternatives – Using the findings in publicly accountable decision-making – Climate change mitigation & adaptation Granit, J., King, R. M. & Noël, R. (2011) 3. Regional power market development improves efficiency and reliability • States cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived to be greater than the net benefits of non-cooperation Grey et. al. 2009 • Electric power trade can transfer the benefits from transboundary water management to load centers supporting integration in a region – Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) • Co-management of electricity networks in a market will get each country access to a larger set of cost-effective energy sources – Many countries already share electricity grids • Eg. Nordic Power Market (NORDPOL); Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the emerging East African Power Pool (EAPP); Mediterranean power pool • Power and transbounday water cooperation offers a rationale for wider expansion supporting broader economic integration Granit, J. & Claassen, M. (2013) 4. Large scale water storage has a key role to play in the nexus from a regional perspective • Large-scale water storage supports economic development, builds water security and buffers against increasing rainfall variability – Large potential still exists • Well-designed water storage and hydropower systems can enhance both climate change adaptation and mitigation • HEP is a renewable source of fuel for electric power generation that efficiently can enable other RE sources in a power system – Hydropower & pumped storage can support the deployment of other sources of Renewable Enegy (RE), peaking capacity • Environmental and social consequences at the local and regional levels need to be addressed up-front when developing water storage – See eg: World Bank Safeguard policies; WCD; Equator principles; UNEP Dams and Development; IHA Hydropower sustainability Assessment Protocol Lindström, A., Granit, J. & Weinberg, J. (2012) Further work Methodology approaches- assessing the nexus in a continuum 1. Qualitative approach (light approach) – Stakeholder driven dialogues threats and opportunties • • – 2. Specialist reviews Quantitative indicator based approach – – – – Publicly available data supported by country data Country surveys based on well-defined questionnaires Describing the basin Identify key insecurities in the WEF nexus • • • • – – 3. E.g. Transboundary Waters Opportunity (TWO) analysis (SIWI 2008) Scenario based approaches (Shell, 1972 -; SEI 2013, Sweden Green Growth) Food & nutrition Water supply, flood and drought etc. Energy availability and access Ecosystem services Stakeholder dialogues to identify opportunities and barriers Cooperative analysis and next steps Quantitative modelling approaches (comprehensive) e.g: – – – – SEI integrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long Range Energy Alternatives System Planning (LEAP) Model (SEI 2012) Hydro-economic modelling (SIWI 2012) Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water Model (CLEW) (KTH 2011) Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approaches: EU/Espoo Convention, World Bank (2007) Granit, J., Fogde, M., Hoff, H., Joyce, J., Karlberg, L., Kuylenstierna, J. and Rosemarin, A. (2013) Thanks to Andreas Lindström, Marius Claassen, Kevin Rosner, Charles Heap, David Purkey and many more