Safety Stock - The Fresh Connection

Inventory
Management
Definition of inventory
control
Inventory control is the activity and methods of keeping the right level
of inventory .
Three questions:
–
–
–
What should I keep on stock?
How much to order?
When to order?
Order Quantity
Reorder
Point
Safety Stock
Time
2
What is the right level?
Inventory finished products
and its traditional conflicts
VP Supply Chain
Components
•
High inventory turns
•
Maximum flexibility
Finished product
Supply
Production
Distribution
VP Purchasing
VP Operations
VP Sales
•
Long runs – minimize
changeovers
•
High service level
•
Safety stocks
Intermezzo: How much
inventory do you need?
4 days
leadtime
?
supplier
You
Wants a
delivery in 1
week
customer
How much inventory do you need ?
• □ nothing
• □ a little bit
• □ enough
Reasons for Carrying
Inventory
The only good reason for carrying inventory beyond current
needs is if it costs less to carry it than not.
Inventory allows the company to operate with different
production rates and batch sizes throughout the supply,
production, and distribution system.
Inventory decouples . . .
Demand
Customer demand
Finished goods
Output of one operation
Materials to begin production
© 2009 APICS
CONFIDENTIAL AND
65
from
from
from
from
from
Supply
Finished goods
Component availability
Output of prec. operation
Suppliers of materials
Functions of Inventory
•
•
•
•
•
© 2009 APICS
CONFIDENTIAL AND
Anticipation inventory
Safety stock
Lot-size inventory
Transportation inventory
Hedge inventory
66
CODP is important in
designing the planning
methods
supplier
production
parts
distribution
HF
FG
FG installation
CODP1
CODP2
CODP3
CODP4
KCODP5
Make to local stock
Make to stock
assembly to order
production to order
purchase to order
1) Customer Order Disconnection Point : how far does a customer order penetrate?
7
customer
Inventory in TFC
Components
pallets
Finished product
pallets
Supply
Mixing
Bottling
Distribution
tankyard
Explore
TFC
How much inventory in weeks and value in components and
finished products?
For what reasons we need inventory in this supply chain?
8
Inventory management
Balancing act of
• Service level offering to the market
• Production reliability
– Capacity
– Availability of components
• Safety stock and production frequencies
Inventory carrying Costs
Capital
Costs
Storage
Costs
Risk Costs
Obsolescence
Opportunity Cost
Space
Damage
Personnel
Pilferage
Equipment
Insurance
Deterioration
Cos of inventory versus out
of stock
Out of stock costs
–
–
–
–
–
–
Cost of backorders
Expediting costs
Cost of complaints
Revenue loss
Loss of customers
Idle time at your
customer
Inventory costs
– Capital
– Storage
– Risk
Explore
TFC
Estimate the inventory carrying costs for a finished product
costs/year
The optimum safety stock is the
stock where the stock costs and
shortages are equal
total
stock costs
costs of shortages
optimum
safety stock
12
safety stock
safety stock
The optimum service level is
the service level with an
optimum safety stock
Service level curve
optimum safety stock
min.
costs
100%
98%
96%
service level
94%
optimum
service level
13
92%
What is the right
servicelevel?
In most cases this is a
management decision
€
profit
0
loss
loss
costs
tevenu
result
optimum
servicelevel
14
100%
Costs
Optimal inventory is the desired
service level against minimal costs
Target level
Optimum
0
100%
Target%
Service level
Costs
Excersise
Today
Target level
Optimum
0
100%
Target%
-How to get this curve lower?
Service level
Service level
Stock finished
product
Production
reliability
(Past) shelf life
Production interval
Service level
Finished goods
warehouse
Number of
employees
Order
deadline
Volatility of demand
Promotion
pressure
and horizon
Bonus
policy
How much to order?
+
minimum
+
Total costs
Ordering costs
Inventory costs
Order quantity
T
18
S
Inventory in time
Order Quantity
Reorder
Point
Safety Stock
Time
• What is the influence of the ordersize of finished products?
• How to decide on the order size?
1-16
EOQ: Cost & Quantity
Relationships
1600
1400
EOQ
Cost in Dollars
1200
1000
800
Ordering Costs
Carrying Costs
600
Total Cost
400
200
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Order Quantity
Source: Arnold et al., Introduction to Materials Management, 6th ed.
Reprinted by Permission of Pearson Education
© 2009 APICS
CONFIDENTIAL AND
7  20
Batch sizes
Manage Cost Tradeoffs
Inventory Carrying Costs
Ordering Costs
Ordering in small
quantities minimizes
inventory carrying
costs
But ordering in
small quantities
requires more
orders and
increases order
costs
Managing tradeoffs by balancing
ordering costs and inventory carrying costs
% deviation from min cost
The sensitivity of EOQ is
limited
25%
20%
15%
10%
TCQ /TCEOQ
5%
0%
-5%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
EOQ
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% deviation from EOQ
TC = total cost
22
Is this all?
• Available production capacity?
• Customer value?
Ordering cost
• Administration
– Cost of supplier mgt and selsection
– Cost of order preparation
– Cost of invoicing and paiment
• Physical.:
– Cost of receiving and QC
– Cost of change over
•
Other.:
– Transportation cost
– ..
23
Order quantity
O
Q
Time
O
Q
What is the influence of orderquantity on servicelevel?
Wjem to order
+
Minimuml
+
Total Cost
Cost of
out of stock
Inventory cost
Safetystock
T
25
S
Exercise: Safety stock
• For item X the following applies:
– Average consumption
– Delivery time
– Present stock
– Service level-target
Question:
• When do you order?
26
100 pc/mth
1 month
200 pc
98 %
Exercise : Safety stock
600
600
600
500
500
500
400
400
400
300
300
300
200
200
200
100
100
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
600
600
600
500
500
500
400
400
400
300
300
300
200
200
200
100
100
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
27
Exercise: Safety stock
• For item X the following applies:
– Average consumption
– Delivery time
– Present stock
– Service level-target
Question:
• When do you order?
No idea!
28
100 pc/mth
1 month
200 pc
98 %
Order Point System
Replenishment
Quantity
in
inventory
A
A
Reorderpoint
Demand
during lead
time (DDLT)
B
C
C
B
LT
Safetystock
Time
Source: Adapted from CPIM Inventory Management Certification Review Course (APICS 1998).
2  29
© 2010 APICS CONFIDENTIAL
AND PROPRIETARY
LT
How to decide on safety
stocks?
• Service level
• Production order quantity
• Demand uncertainty
• Supply uncertainty
demand
In analytically determining
the safety stock, the starting
point is variation in demand
μ











         









time
µ = estimated demand
31
frequency
Optimal inventory is the desired
service level against minimal costs
Costs
Are you on the curve?
How to assess?
Today
Target level
Optimum
0
100%
Target%
Service level
Differentation of servicelevel
based on uncertainty and value
revenue
low
high
low
99%?
95%?
high
95%?
90%?
uncertainty
Intermezzo: How much
inventory do you need?
2 weeks
leadtime
supplier
?
RM
Fixed
period of
3 weeks
?
FP
1 day
leadtime
customer
How much inventory do you need on both points ?
•
•
•
nothing
a little bit
enough
Something to think
about
• Where do you prefer to have the highest service levels?
Components
Supply
Finished product
Production
• Is 95% component service level ok?
• Is 100% component service level ok?
Distribution
Inventory of components
Order Quantity
Reorder
Point
Safety Stock
Time
What makes inventory management of components
different from finished products?
• service level and demand
• supply
• product
Something to think
about (cont)
Component availability
Number of components
#=2
#=3
#=4
90%
81%
73%
66%
95%
90%
86%
81%
98%
96%
94%
92%
Obsolete management
Obsoletes
Stock
Safety stock
Customer agreements
Production
interval
Shelf life
agreements
Shelf life %
Agreement vs realisation
obsolete
Shelflife realisation= 85%
85%
Shelf life agreement= 70%
Shelflife is 20 weeks
Internal shelflife