January 30, 2015 Global Markets Research Daily Market Highlights Key Takeaways Overnight Economic Data US Better than expected initial jobless claims that fell to a near 15-year low reaffirmed solid EU recovery in the US job market and bolstered expectations the Fed rate normalization remains UK on track. Sentiments also turned less negative in the Eurozone but UK housing and sales Japan data disappointed. The string of Japanese data released this morning came in mixed with Australia improvement in the job market but overall household spending continued to contract, pointing to New Zealand a still bleak growth outlook. The Dollar Index extended its climb for a 2nd straight day to 94.78 at close, suggesting the Government Bond Yield much anticipation consolidation in the dollar is coming in much slower and milder than expected. 3-year 3.54 weakness to close at 3.6285, its weakest in almost 6 years. No change to our bearish view on 5-year 3.71 the MYR in the near term, especially amid a firm USD and ahead of the long weekend. 7-year 3.78 10-year 3.84 15-year 4.12 On the local front, the MYR tested new intraday high of 3.6355 before recouping some MYR Local govvies ended mixed albeit robust trading volume worth RM4.46b. As much anticipated, the reopening of RM3.0b MGS 10/17 attracted healthy BTC of 2.59x, with tender results coming in at low, average and high of 3.530%, 3.542% and 3.548% respectively. MGS 10/17 replaces as the new benchmark 3-year MGS. Reinforced views on OPR pause and benign inflation outlook as hinted by language of latest January MPC statement prompts bargain hunting interest. Additionally, ECB recent announcement on QE seemingly amplified the appeal of higher yielding EM assets, including MYR bonds in line with the regional theme. With OPR expected to remain unchanged, we expect short-end yields to remain well anchored for now, with prospects of investors of extending out the curve on lower than expected inflation forecast, amid subdued oil prices. UST 20-year 4.31 30-year 4.60 2-year 0.52 5-year 1.27 10-year 1.75 30-year 2.32 Daily Supports - Resistances What’s Coming Up Next Major Data MY foreign reserves US 4Q GDP, Chicago PMI, Uni Michigan consumer confidence EU CPI estimate, jobless rate UK net consumer credit, mortgage approvals Japan housing starts SG unemployment rate Major Events Nil Bond Tender Nil S2 S1 Indicative R1 R2 EURUSD 1.1228 1.1309 1.1328 1.1374 1.1439 USDJPY 117.25 117.85 118.23 118.44 118.80 GBPUSD 1.5017 1.5057 1.5077 1.5120 1.5160 AUDUSD 0.7700 0.7720 0.7780 0.7879 0.7928 EURGBP 0.7405 0.7467 0.7514 0.7570 0.7606 USDMYR 3.6155 3.6239 3.6300 3.630 3.6375 EURMYR 4.0854 4.0933 4.1135 4.1187 4.1200 JPYMYR 3.0511 3.0649 3.0720 3.0786 3.0909 GBPMYR 5.4511 5.4648 5.4728 5.4817 5.4900 SGDMYR 2.6761 2.6794 2.6835 2.6870 2.6938 AUDMYR 2.8200 2.8225 2.8246 2.8300 2.8403 NZDMYR 2.6350 2.6375 2.6393 2.6450 2.6500 = above 0.1% gain = above 0.1% loss Name KLCI Dow Jones Ind. Last Price DoD % YTD % 1782.2 -0.8 1.2 Name CRB Index Outlook = less than 0.1% gain / loss Last Price DoD % YTD % 212.6 -1.1 -7.5 17416.9 1.3 -2.3 WTI oil ($/bbl) 44.5 0.2 -16.4 S&P 500 2021.3 1.0 -1.8 Brent oil ($/bbl) 49.1 1.4 -14.3 FTSE 100 6810.6 -0.2 3.7 Gold (S/oz) 1257.4 -2.1 6.4 Shanghai 3262.3 -1.3 0.9 CPO (RM/tonne) 2198.0 1.4 -4.3 24595.9 -1.1 4.2 Copper ($/tonne) 5395.0 -1.6 -14.4 3419.1 0.0 1.6 Rubber (sen/kg) 365.5 0.0 -3.2 Hang Seng STI Source: Bloomberg 1 Macroeconomics • Economic Data US initial jobless claims US pending home sales EU business climate EU consumer confidence EU economic confidence UK nationwide house prices UK CBI reported sales UK GfK consumer confidence JP jobless rate JP overall household spending JP Natl CPI YOY JP industrial production AU PPI YOY NZ building permits MOM For Actual Last Survey 24-Jan Dec Jan Jan F Jan 265K -3.7% 0.16 -8.5 101.2 308K 0.6% 0.15 -8.5 100.6 300K 0.5% 0.12 -8.5 101.6 Jan 6.8% 7.2% 6.6% 32 Jan 39 61 Jan 1 -4 -2 Dec 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% Dec -3.4% -2.5% -2.3% Dec Dec P 4Q Dec 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% -2.1% 2.4% -0.5% 1.2% 10.5% 2.3% 1.2% --- Overnight economic releases were mixed. The bigger than expected fall in initial jobless claims to 265K for the week ended 24-Jan confirmed solid recovery in the US job market that is expected to keep the Fed rate normalization on track. Housing indicators however continued to remain soft, with pending home sales unexpectedly fell 3.7% MOM in December. • Sentiments in the Eurozone exhibited a more upbeat tone, offering some reprieve the Euro region economy could see more signs of life ahead. Economic confidence picked up albeit at a smaller than expected pace to 101.2 in January while biz climate indicator jumped to 0.16. Final print of consumer confidence also showed an improvement to -8.5 in January. • On the contrary, UK data looks more disappointing. The increase in Nationwide house prices showed a 5th straight month of moderation to 6.8% YOY in January, confirming a softening housing market. CBI reported sales on the other hand also posted a much softer print of 39 in January, normalizing from past month’s jump to its highest since 1988. On the contrary, this morning’s GfK consumer confidence came in more positive, surprisingly halted four straight months of negative reading and reported a positive print in January, lifted mainly improved personal finances outlook and less Source: Bloomberg pessimistic economic outlook over the next 12 months. • Back in Asia, the string of Japanese data released this morning came in mixed. On the positive side, jobless rate unexpectedly tapered off to 3.4% in December, lowest since Aug-97. Industrial production rebounded albeit less than expected to increase 1.0% MOM in December, as a rebound in shipment offset declines in inventories. On the contrary, overall household spending fell at a faster than expected pace of 3.4% YOY in December, as spending fell across most categories except the basic needs in housing, medical care and education. In a separate release, national CPI sustained a 2.4% YOY increase in December, and core CPI ex-food and energy also maintained a 2.1% YOY increase, easing some deflationary concern. • In Australia, PPI gain moderated a notch to 1.1% YOY and 0.1% QOQ in 4Q, in line with softer price momentum seen in CPI and marked its softest YOY increase in nine quarters. The softer price gain was mainly dragged by a fall in domestic prices that offset higher imported prices as the Aussie weakens. • Down in New Zealand, building permits took a turn and fell 2.1% MOM in December, pulling back after the strong double-digit gains the previous two months. However, approvals in 2014 rose to the highest since 2007, reflective of continuous rebuilding efforts. 2 Economic Calendar Release Date Country Date Event US 01/30 GDP Annualized QoQ Chicago Purchasing Manager U. of Mich. Sentiment 02/02 EU 01/30 UK JP Prior Revised 3.10% 5.00% -- Jan 57.5 58.8 -- Jan F 98.2 98.2 -- Personal Income Dec 0.2% 0.40% -- Personal Spending Dec -0.3% 0.60% -- PCE Core MoM Dec 0.0% 0.00% -- Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan F -- 53.7 -- Construction Spending MoM Dec 0.7% -0.30% -- ISM Manufacturing Jan 55.0 55.5 -- Unemployment Rate Dec 11.50% 11.50% -- CPI Estimate YoY Jan -0.5% -0.20% -- Jan F -- 51.0 -- Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 01/30 GfK Consumer Confidence Jan -2 -4 -- Net Consumer Credit Dec 1.2B 1.3B -- Mortgage Approvals Dec 59.0K 59.0K -- 02/02 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Jan -- 52.5 -- 01/30 Housing Starts YoY Dec -14.80% -14.30% -- Construction Orders YoY Dec -- 16.90% -- Jan F -- 52.1 -- Manufacturing PMI Jan 50.2 50.1 -- Non-manufacturing PMI Jan -- 54.1 -- 02/01 HK Survey 4Q A 0202 02/02 CH Reporting Period Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI 02/02 HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Jan F 49.8 49.8 -- 02/02 Retail Sales Value YoY Dec -- 4.10% -- SI 01/30 Unemployment rate SA 4Q P 2.0% 2.00% -- VN 02/02 HSBC Vietnam Manufacturing PMI Jan -- 52.7 -- AU 02/02 AiG Perf of Mfg Index Jan -- 46.9 -- Source: Bloomberg 3 Forex MYR FX Table Name • MYR continued its losing streak yesterday, pulling back 0.59% against the USD, 1.08% against GBP and 0.80% against AUD. With the exception of the 0.14% strengthening against SGD, MYR continued to be weighed down by low commodity prices. Last Price DoD % High Low YTD % EURUSD 1.1320 -0.83 1.1383 1.1276 -6.7 USDJPY 118.29 -0.28 118.26 117.26 -1.8 GBPUSD 1.5067 -0.38 1.5219 1.5131 -2.8 AUDUSD 0.7762 -0.60 0.8025 0.7884 -3.5 EURGBP 0.7513 -0.44 0.74971 0.7446 -4.0 USDMYR 3.6285 0.59 3.6265 3.6000 3.7 gold prices were near two weeks low. Even as other nations are cutting EURMYR 4.0958 0.58 4.1193 4.0912 -3.5 interest rates or maintaining loose monetary stance, wide expectation of the JPYMYR 3.0676 0.87 3.0851 3.0513 5.3 GBPMYR 5.4848 1.08 5.5013 5.4674 0.6 SGDMYR 2.6843 -0.14 2.6421 2.6421 1.0 AUDMYR 2.8406 0.80 2.9045 2.8497 -0.3 NZDMYR 2.6463 0.69 2.7071 2.6804 -3.3 • Going into today’s trading, we expect MYR to remain a tad bearish but mostly sideways. USD • USD remained the front runner among its peers, as dollar index climbed to its highest close for more than 10 years. US stocks continued to rally while Fed raising interest rates sometime this year on the back of solid fundamentals have sent USD to record high. • USD will likely be bullish amid robust recovery of the economy, until further data releases prove otherwise. EUR • EUR traded 0.83% lower against GBP and USD in yesterday’s trading Source: Bloomberg session. Germany’s CPI for Jan contracted 0.3% yoy compared to the 0.2% in Dec, while unemployment was unchanged at 6.5%. Modest price level in euro’s largest economy strengthens the case for structural reforms in the euro zone for price level to pick up again. MYR vs Major Counterparts (% DOD) • We expect EUR to rangetrade today. AUD -1.68 CHF GBP JPY • GBP lost some grounds to USD amid disappointing data release yesterday. -0.17GBP House prices moderated for 5 consecutive months and sales numbers were -1.23 -0.35 -0.16EUR HKD CNY SGD USD -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 unimpressive. The currency weakened against 5G10. • GBP is expected to weaken against USD. 0.06 0.08 0.20 0.28 0.50 JPY • JPY fell 0.28% against the greenback, reversing some of the previous day gain. JPY will be supported by prolonged geopolitical tension in UkraineRussia and uncertainties in other region but dampened by the seemingly lackluster impacts of Abenomics. • JPY will likely be bearish amid the strong greenback AUD • AUD continued to decline against the greenback. Like other commodity currencies, we had seen pullback in AUD amid falling oil and coal prices. Lack of solid data will keep AUD on the bearish side. • We opine that AUD will remain soft against USD. SGD • SGD continued to see selling pressure, largely impacted by MAS monetary policy stance. • Against MYR, we maintain that our local currency will outperform SGD. 4 Fixed Income US T US Treasuries T e nure C lo s ing ( %) 2-yr UST 0.52 C hg ( bps ) 2 5-yr UST 1.27 -2 • UST ended mixed, paring some of its earlier gains as data on 10-yr UST 1.75 3 30-yr UST 2.32 2 decline in jobless claims supported the Fed’s outlook that the US labour market appears to be improving on a steadier path to recovery. The Fed had commented that it was encouraged by strong job gains and solid economic expansion, whilst maintaining its pledge to remain patient on interest rate M GS G II* T e nure C lo s ing ( %) C hg ( bps ) C lo s ing ( %) 3-yr 3.54 3 3.70 C hg ( bps ) 1 5-yr 3.71 4 3.85 0 7-yr 3.78 -1 3.99 2 10-yr 3.84 1 4.11 -2 15-yr 4.12 -2 4.31 0 20-yr 4.31 -4 4.59 0 30-yr 4.60 0 normalization. All eyes on US 4Q GDP release tonight. Upside surprises in growth data may influence bond yields to edge a tad higher. MGS * M arket indicative levels • Local govvies ended mixed albeit robust trading volume worth RM4.46b traded. As much anticipated, the reopening of RM3.0b MGS 10/17 attracted healthy BTC of 2.59x, with tenders results coming in at low, average and high of 3.530%, 3.542% and 3.548% respectively. MGS 10/17 replaces as the new benchmark 3-year MGS. M Y R IR S Le v e ls IR S C lo s ing ( %) 1-yr 3.73 -1 3-yr 3.78 2 5-yr 3.85 1 7-yr 3.97 2 10-yr 4.05 3 C hg ( bps ) So urce : B lo o mberg Daily Trades Government Bonds Securities MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS GII GII GII GII GII GII GII SPK 2/15 8/15 7/16 9/16 3/17 9/17 10/17 2/18 7/19 10/19 11/19 3/20 7/20 7/21 9/21 8/22 7/24 4/26 3/27 4/30 4/32 4/33 9/43 8/17 11/17 10/18 5/20 7/22 5/24 12/28 2/24 Closing YTM Vol (RM mil) Previous YTM 3.281 3.269 3.386 3.358 3.502 3.577 3.541 3.638 3.713 3.711 3.734 3.750 3.797 3.850 3.783 3.865 3.844 3.973 4.076 4.118 4.242 4.311 4.604 3.750 3.703 3.787 4.021 3.990 4.105 4.314 4.231 135 12 495 71 7 19 1635 50 3 147 30 21 32 5 210 20 160 4 2 40 1 8 10 10 8 30 30 460 750 10 50 4465 3.268 3.295 3.380 3.429 3.491 3.567 3.582 3.641 3.795 3.676 3.805 3.812 3.798 3.842 3.783 3.974 3.832 4.023 4.215 4.123 4.267 4.348 4.604 3.809 3.695 3.787 4.157 3.970 4.115 4.314 4.261 Source : BPAM 5 Previous Trade Date (dd/mm/yyyy) 27/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 26/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 26/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 27/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 27/01/2015 28/01/2015 12/01/2015 27/01/2015 21/11/2014 10/12/2014 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 28/01/2015 Chg (bp) 1 -3 1 -7 1 1 -4 0 -8 3 -7 -6 0 1 0 -11 1 -5 -14 0 -3 -4 0 -6 1 0 -14 2 -1 0 -3 • Reinforced views on OPR pause and benign inflation outlook as hinted by language of latest January MPC statement prompts bargain hunting interest. Additionally, ECB recent announcement on QE seemingly amplified the appeal of higher yielding EM assets, including MYR bonds in line with the regional theme. With OPR expected to remain unchanged, we expect short-end yields to remain well anchored for now, with prospects of investors of extending out the curve on lower than expected inflation forecast, amid subdued oil prices. PDS/Sukuk • On a similar note, trading interest in PDS garnered traction with total transacted amount surging higher to reach RM707m yesterday. Active trading seen on GG bonds following the recent compression in MGS yields. We saw Prasa ’18 ending tighter to close at 3.89%, whilst DanaInfra’29 compressed lower to trade at 4.60%. Other notable trades include a slew of Boustead Holding bonds maturing 2015-2017 with collective volume of RM35m done. Interestingly we saw AAA rated Rantau Abang bonds maturing ’29-’31 and Danga’30 traded tighter, as attractive credit spreads versus compressed MGS yields seen luring interest. Yields seen compressed lower to end at 4.78%, 4.88% and 4.80% respectively. Daily Trades: PDS / Sukuk Securities Rating Closing YTM Vol (RM mil) Previous YTM Syarikat Prasarana Negara Berhad 5/18 GovCo Holdings Berhad 2/21 Syarikat Prasarana Negara Berhad 8/21 Khazanah Nasional Berhad 8/24 Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad 9/24 Turus Pesawat Sdn Berhad 11/24 DanaInfra Nasional Berhad 7/29 Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad 9/29 DanaInfra Nasional Berhad 4/34 Symphony Life Berhad [fka Bolton Berhad] 11/18 Boustead Holdings Berhad 11/15 Boustead Holdings Berhad 6/16 Boustead Holdings Berhad 1/17 BJ Corporation Sdn Berhad 3/20 Danga Capital Berhad 4/15 Cagamas Berhad 6/15 Cagamas MBS Berhad 8/15 Cagamas Berhad 1/16 Sime Darby Berhad 11/16 Inverfin Sdn Berhad 2/18 HSBC Amanah Malaysia Berhad 10/19 Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad 9/20 Cagamas Berhad 10/20 Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad 9/23 Aman Sukuk Berhad 5/24 Rantau Abang Capital Berhad 3/29 Rantau Abang Capital Berhad 5/31 Danga Capital Berhad 1/30 Sabah Development Bank Berhad 9/15 Sabah Development Bank Berhad 9/15 OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad 8/17 Malayan Banking Berhad 1/19 YTL Power International Berhad 10/21 YTL Power International Berhad 10/24 Maybank Islamic Berhad 3/16 CIMB Bank Berhad 8/16 CIMB Bank Berhad 11/17 Tropicana Corporation Berhad [fka Dijaya Corporation Berhad] 11/17 Konsortium ProHAWK Sdn Berhad 12/20 ORIX Leasing Malaysia Berhad 4/15 AMMB Holdings Berhad 8/17 Edaran SWM Sdn Berhad 10/18 BGSM Management Sdn Berhad 12/19 Edaran SWM Sdn Berhad 10/22 BGSM Management Sdn Berhad 12/23 Tanjung Bin Energy Issuer Berhad 3/32 Kimanis Power Sdn Berhad 8/20 RHB Bank Berhad 12/19 GG GG GG GG GG GG GG GG GG AAA (FG) AAA (BG) AAA (BG) AAA (BG) AAA (BG) AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AA1 AA1 AA1 AA1 AA1 AA1 AA+ AA+ AA+ AA2 AA2 AA3 AA3 AA3 AA3 AA3 AA3 AA3 AAA1 3.899 4.204 4.221 4.432 4.400 4.440 4.600 4.550 4.789 4.550 4.005 4.201 4.300 4.500 3.926 3.857 3.792 3.916 3.850 4.361 4.233 4.342 4.240 4.528 4.597 4.780 4.880 4.799 4.229 4.230 4.331 4.719 4.949 5.199 4.014 4.452 5.151 4.550 4.530 4.130 4.870 4.737 4.668 5.177 5.109 5.640 4.598 5.032 5 50 8 50 20 5 10 10 40 13 8 10 17 20 1 30 5 10 20 5 20 10 5 5 20 30 20 20 1 0 5 2 35 35 50 10 1 20 10 5 0 10 1 10 30 5 5 5 707 3.956 4.178 4.221 4.432 4.453 4.850 4.789 4.774 4.321 3.843 3.969 4.316 3.598 3.400 3.775 3.866 4.364 4.195 4.347 3.820 4.630 4.654 4.809 4.950 4.790 4.265 4.069 4.335 4.527 4.910 5.101 4.072 4.329 5.150 4.298 4.111 4.351 5.201 4.699 5.427 5.138 5.650 4.601 5.034 Previous Trade Date (dd/mm/yyyy) 19/01/2015 10/10/2014 27/01/2015 28/01/2015 20/08/2014 16/12/2014 16/12/2014 13/11/2014 25/11/2014 27/01/2015 25/11/2014 25/11/2014 28/01/2015 26/06/2013 14/10/2014 23/01/2015 28/01/2015 27/01/2015 21/01/2015 04/10/2012 16/01/2015 26/01/2015 26/01/2015 16/12/2014 19/01/2015 12/12/2014 28/01/2015 15/01/2015 28/01/2015 23/01/2015 05/01/2015 10/10/2014 27/01/2015 25/11/2014 23/01/2015 12/12/2014 16/12/2014 02/01/2015 26/01/2015 20/01/2015 21/01/2015 27/01/2015 28/01/2015 Chg (bp) -6 3 0 0 -1 -25 -24 1 23 16 23 18 33 46 2 -2 0 4 -1 42 -10 -6 -3 -7 -4 16 0 19 4 10 -6 12 0 25 2 52 -46 -3 -25 -3 -1 0 0 Spread Against IRS** 12 30 27 38 35 39 40 35 59 74 27 46 54 66 19 12 5 18 9 58 39 44 34 55 55 58 68 75 49 49 55 91 99 115 27 69 137 77 63 39 109 93 82 120 113 144 69 119 ** spread against nearest indicative tenured IRS Source : BPAM Market/Corporate News: What’s Brewing Moody's Investors Service has affirmed A3 issuer rating to Malaysia Airport Holdings Bhd (MAHB) with a positive rating outlook. "MAHB's positive rating outlook reflects Moody's positive rating outlook for the Malaysian sovereign as well as MAHB's important policy role and contributions to Malaysia's tourism, export and aviation industries," it said. However, the rating agency has lowered the airport operator's baseline credit assessment to baa2 from baa1, reflecting the company's weaker standalone credit quality. This is following the completion of a 40 per cent stake acquisition in Istanbul's second-largest airport by passenger traffic, Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SGIA), in December last year, bringing MAHB's total stake in SGIA to 100 per cent. "Moody's expects that the full consolidation of SGIA into MAHB will result in a 30 per cent increase in adjusted debt," it said. It said MAHB still managed to record a passenger traffic growth of five per cent for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2014 despite a series of airline disasters last year involving its key airline operators. However, it said passenger traffic growth is expected to fall between 1.5 per cent and three 6 per cent this year. Moody's said downgrade pressure on MAHB's rating is unlikely, given the positive outlook, but the company's rating could be downgraded if the government's rating is downgraded, which is unlikely for at least over the next 12 months. (Source: Bloomberg) Oil prices should reach a long-term equilibrium of $90 per barrel, Royal Dutch Shell's Chief Executive Ben van Beurden told a conference call on Thursday. He said it was impossible to predict when prices would return to those levels and said oil prices were poised to remain volatile in the mid-term. Royal Dutch Shell shares fell on Thursday after the oil company missed profit expectations and announced a three-year, $15 billion cut in spending reflecting a steep fall in oil prices. Van Beurden however warned against an over reaction to the 60 percent drop in oil prices since June, while keeping dividends unchanged to soothe investors. (Source: The Star) Rating Actions Issuer PDS Description Cerah Sama Sdn Bhd RM420m sukuk under the RM750m Sukuk Musharakah Programme Sources: RAM, MARC 7 Rating/Outlook Action AA-IS/ Stable Affirmed Hong Leong Bank Berhad Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong 18, Jalan Perak 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 603-2773 0469 Fax: 603-2164 9305 Email: [email protected] DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. 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