1. real estate
2. apartments

HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
ELLICOTT CITY, MARYLAND
MARKET FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
Prepared For:
Stavrou Associates, Inc.
441 Defense Highway
Suite C
Annapolis, Maryland 21401
Submitted by:
Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC
8815 Centre Park Drive
Suite 200
Columbia, Maryland 21045
October 12, 2010
LIPMAN FRIZZELL & MITCHELL
LLC
Brooks • Thomas • Cronyn
REAL ESTATE CONSULTANTS
6240 Old Dobbin Lane
Suite 140
Columbia, Maryland 21045
(410) 423-2300
Joseph M. Cronyn, Principal
Direct: (410) 423-2372
Fax: (410) 423-2373
E-mail: [email protected]
October 12, 2010
Mr. Stephen J. Moore
Stavrou Associates, Inc.
441 Defense Highway
Suite C
Annapolis, MD 21401
SUBJECT:
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS—ELLICOTT CITY, MD
Market Feasibility Analysis
Dear Mr. Moore:
Enclosed please find Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell's analysis of the market feasibility of
Stavrou Associates’ proposed redevelopment of the Hilltop site located in Ellicott City,
Howard County, Maryland.
The 206 mixed income family apartment units will retain the subject’s current residents,
but also serve affordable renters (incomes at or below 60% AMI) and market rate
renters in an increasingly expensive Howard County rental market. LF&M finds the
subject is market-supported in 2010 and beyond. The enclosed report summarizes our
reasoning process.
Please call me at (410) 423-2372 should you have any questions or comments.
Sincerely,
LIPMAN FRIZZELL & MITCHELL LLC
Joseph M. Cronyn
Joseph M. Cronyn
Member
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
ELLICOTT CITY, MARYLAND
MARKET FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC (LF&M) has been engaged by Stavrou Associates
(Developer) to conduct a market feasibility analysis of the proposed acquisition and
redevelopment of the Hilltop Family Apartments located in Ellicott City, Howard County,
Maryland.
Hilltop Family Apartments consists of 206 mixed income apartments to be delivered in a
master-planned redevelopment of existing public housing sites. There are 92 affordable
LIHTC apartments targeted to family households earning 30%-60% of area median
income (AMI). There are also 114 market rate apartments with no income restrictions.
This analysis provides information on the community, the demand for affordable family
apartments within the defined Ellicott City Primary Market Area and the market
environment in which the units will compete for residents.
Based on our analysis, LF&M finds that the Hilltop family apartments has strong market
support. The subject is well-positioned to attract family households in a wide range of
incomes in need of quality housing. The factors which support this conclusion include:

Location - The subject is centrally located in Ellicott City. Quality schools, retail
opportunities, quality healthcare, public transportation are all easily available to the
subject’s residents.

Redevelopment - The subject will begin the redevelopment of an obsolete and
underutilized public housing site—replacing existing improvements with a high
quality, mixed income multifamily development.

Affordable Rents - The subject offers 206 mixed income apartment units. The 92
affordable units will target households at 30%-60% AMI. Market rate apartments will
total 114. Affordable rental housing is an increasingly scarce commodity in the
expensive Howard County market.

Employment - Residents will have access to ample employment opportunities in
Howard County, one of the strongest and fastest-growing employment markets in
the Washington-Baltimore region. BRAC-related development pressure will only
accelerate job creation, though it will also likely increase price pressure on housing.
Page 1

Growth Trends – Howard County has been the fastest growing metropolitan county
within the Baltimore area during the past decade. The Ellicott City PMA has fully
participated in that growth.
o Population & Household Trends - Howard County has been the fastest growing
metropolitan county within the Baltimore area during the past decade. The
Ellicott City PMA has fully participated in that growth. In 2010 there are an
estimated 22,036 PMA households—a figure which is expected to increase to
23,175 by 2015.
o Housing Trends - The PMA has a higher homeownership rate (74.9% in 2000)
and higher owner-occupied housing values ($429,508 estimated median value in
2010) than Howard County. Over one-third (33.9%) of Howard County renter
households, however, were housing cost burdened in 2000—paying more than
30% of their incomes towards total housing expenses.
o Economic Trends - The PMA is located within one of the most diverse and
dynamic County economies in the Baltimore-Washington area, offering the
subject’s residents access to many employment, educational and other
opportunities. The PMA’s estimated median household income of $105,550 in
2010 is 3.5% higher than Howard County’s $101,954 median.

Competitive Niche - The that the subject is well-positioned to attract households
looking for quality affordable and market rate housing. The Ellicott City PMA’s rental
market is characterized by high occupancies for all properties and waiting lists for
the affordable/subsidized properties. The factors which support this position include:
o Market Rate Supply - The market rate apartment communities in the PMA
maintain high occupancies, currently estimated at 97.4%. The quality of the midrange multifamily stock is good but typically older. Properties have generally
been well managed. Market rents average $1,006 for a standard 1BR
apartment, $1,303 for a standard 2BR apartment and $1,795 for a 3BR
apartment. A luxury niche has been opened in recent years at the successful
Oella Mill with rents at a considerable premium to the mid-range properties—
demonstrating the PMA’s capacity for growth at the upper end of the income
range. The subject’s LIHTC rents are a significant savings in comparison to the
market, while the unrestricted rents are within the market range—especially
considering the positive reception given the Oella Mill Apartments at the luxury
end of the market.
o Affordable/Subsidized Supply - The supply of subsidized and affordable family
apartments in the PMA is small, currently estimated at 211 units. There are two
senior affordable properties in the area, offering 243 age-restricted units. All
have full occupancy with waiting lists.
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o Amenities - The subject’s units and amenities are very competitive with the
newest PMA market rate properties and superior to the area’s older (though
typically updated) properties. In particular, the new 40,000 sq.ft. community
center will be a great benefit.

Prospect Pool - The income-qualified demand for the subject’s LIHTC apartments is
very conservatively estimated at1,940 renter households within the Ellicott City PMA.
The number of PMA renter households with incomes sufficient to afford the subject’s
market rate units is estimated at 2,154 households.

Capture/Penetration Rate - The subject’s current residents will be retained, some
after temporary relocation—substantially reducing any lease-up risk. In addition, the
subject’s capture rates are very low: 5.5% for LIHTC units and 7.4% for market rate
units. LF&M conservatively assumes that all 92 LIHTC units will be filled by incomeeligible family renter households from within the PMA. Comparing that number to
the total 2010 eligible target household pool, LF&M calculates the subject's capture
rate as follows:
o Project Capture - In 2010, the pool of income-qualified prospects consists of
1,940 renter households now living within the PMA. The subject would need to
capture 4.7% of these households (92 units /1,940 = 4.7%).
o Project Capture by Income - LF&M has further estimated the subject’s capture
rate by Tax Credit income band in accordance with the number of units available
to each income band. The table below stratifies the subject’s capture rate by
income level:
Capture Rate by Income Band
Income Band
30%
60%
Total
No. of Units
18
74
92
Renter Hhlds
862
1,078
1,940
Capture Rate
2.1%
6.9%
4.7%
o Market Rate Units - The subject’s 114 market rate apartments need capture only
5.3% of the income-qualified renter pool available in 2010. (114 units / 2,154 =
5.3%)
The subject is planned to offer mixed income rental housing, providing affordable and
market rate apartments in a well-managed community setting—within a County which
experiences continuing housing price pressure due to high demand. That demand will
only increase further with the influence of BRAC.
LF&M finds, therefore, that the subject is market-supported in 2010 and for the
foreseeable future.
Page 3
Hilltop Family Apartments
Key Findings
Property
206 Apartments (92 LIHTC and 114 Market Rate)
- 35 1BR/1BA
- 117 2BR/2BA
- 54 3BR/2BA
Population
Family
Income Targeting
18 Units
74 Units
114 Units
Competitive Analysis
Property will serve a mixed income population with LIHTC
units at rents substantially below market and with market
rate units well within the market range. The high quality
apartments in multiple design formats, excellent location and
abundant employment opportunities in the growing Howard
County economy make the subject very appealing.
Impact on CDA Portfolio
None. There is a very limited supply of subsidized and
affordable apartments in the Ellicott City market, all with high
occupancy and waiting lists.
Capture Rate
LIHTC Capture Rate:
5.5%
Market Rate Capture :
7.4%
Penetration Rate
LIHTC Penetration Rate:
6.1%
Stabilized Occupancy
93% very conservatively.
30% AMI
60% AMI
No Income Restriction
Absorption/Lease-Up Risk Will be leased up as new construction units are available
due to the fact that most current residents will be retained,
but also strong demand in Howard County. Stabilized
occupancy will occur at completion of rehabilitation.
Page 4
I. MARKET ANALYST QUALIFICATIONS
Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell, LLC (LF&M) is a multifaceted real estate consulting and
appraisal firm serving the Mid-Atlantic since 1977. LF&M is the largest real estate
advisory firm headquartered in the Region, with 25 professionals in our Columbia, MD
offices.
A. COMPANY OVERVIEW
LF&M provides clients with objective advice and practical assistance at every stage of
decision-making on the development, use or reuse of all types of real estate. Our
clients include corporations, institutions, real estate owners, builders, developers, and
government entities. Our professional staff has an exceptional capability to use a vast
array of information and resources to assist clients in making sound, timely decisions
through the real estate planning, financing and development process.
Seven senior members of the firm hold the MAI designation and other advanced
degrees. Professional licenses are held by various members of the firm in Maryland,
District of Columbia, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Virginia. Academic degrees and
professional designations are combined with hands-on real estate investment,
development and ownership expertise--offering our clients many decades of
accumulated counseling and valuation experience.
B. MARKET FEASIBILITY CONSULTING
LF&M senior staff has advised state and county economic development and planning
agencies, state housing finance agencies, and non-profit groups regarding affordable
housing and other community development issues from a variety of perspectives
including the following:
- Urban, Rural, Inner Suburban Ring, Suburban

Geographic Focus

Partnership with Other Intermediary Groups - State Housing Finance Agencies, NonProfit Community Development Corporations, Public Housing Authorities,
Entitlement/Non-Entitlement Jurisdictions, Other State/Federal Agencies

Strategic Planning - Statewide Housing Needs Assessments; Determine Available
Resources: Financial, Talent, Public/Private; Gauge Legislative and Regulatory
Environment; Determine Agency Mission and Role
Page 5

Advisory Assignments - Project Feasibility, Economic and Demographic Analysis,
Program Feasibility and Review, Development Planning and Execution, Fiscal and
Economic Impact Analysis, Annexation and Zoning Analysis, Policy Formulation and
Implementation
C. RESEARCHER FOR THIS MARKET ANALYSIS
The LF&M principal-in-charge of this assignment has been Joseph Cronyn. He has
over 35 years of real estate development, finance and consulting experience. Most
relevant to this assignment, he has successfully completed feasibility assessments for
rental and homeownership opportunities throughout the Mid-Atlantic in Maryland,
Pennsylvania, Delaware and Virginia. To date, Mr. Cronyn has been responsible for
dozens of LIHTC market studies submitted to CDA. Cronyn's resume and references
are found in Appendix A.
D. ORGANIZATION OF REPORT
Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell has followed the CDA market study requirements and has
organized this report in six principal sections:






Section I outlines the market analyst qualifications and relevant areas of expertise.
Section II provides an overview and description of the proposed project.
Section III defines the market area for the project and describes relevant
demographic and economic trends in the area.
Section IV reviews the multifamily housing rental supply already available in the
market area and against which the subject project will compete.
Section V estimates the market demand for the apartments which are proposed.
Section VI analyzes the relationship between supply and demand and factors
affecting the subject project’s market capture ratios.
E. UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS
The conclusions reached in a market feasibility analysis are inherently subjective and
should not be relied upon as a determinative predictor of results that will actually occur
in the marketplace. Thus a market study is not a substitute for management's ultimate
decision-making responsibilities. There can be no assurance that the estimates made
or assumptions employed in preparing this report will in fact be realized or that other
methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusions expressed in this
report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of another date
may require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety
of factors including the performance of management, the impact of changes in general
and local economic conditions and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or
competitive environment.
Page 6
II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
In this section, LF&M describes the subject property, its proposed redevelopment and
operating characteristics, site location and neighborhood environment.
A. LOCATION
The Hilltop community is located about three-quarters of a mile south of US Route 40
(Baltimore National Pike) and east of US Route 29 (Columbia Pike). More specifically
the site is located at 3570 Court House Drive in Ellicott City, Maryland.
The immediate neighborhood is predominately residential with a mix of single family
homeownership and multifamily developments. The neighborhood also includes some
nearby commercial properties including the Courthouse Square Office Park.
In addition, Howard County Government offices are located at the intersection of
Rogers Avenue and Courthouse Drive, just a quarter of a mile north. This is the main
center for County administrative services and activities. It is also the headquarters for
the Howard County Police. Historic Main Street in Ellicott City is located just to the
south.
The site has excellent access to commercial and public service amenities.
B. HILLTOP APARTMENTS DESCRIPTION
The Hilltop community is located on a site of approximately 17.8 acres currently
occupied by the Hilltop and Ellicott Terrace low-income housing projects. Their total
154 rental units will be demolished and replaced with new construction in phases.
Ownership
Howard County Housing Commission, the jurisdiction’s public housing authority, will
own the redeveloped property. Stavrou Associates is the Developer.
Existing Properties
Built in 1969 to replace a row of wooden rental cottages without indoor plumbing that
had served as Ellicott City's African-American enclave, Hilltop has 94 brick town houses
and apartments on a hilly 12-acre site, plus a 2006 apartment house for low-income
seniors. Ellicott Terrace is a 60-unit garden-style brick complex on just under 4 acres
within sight of Hilltop.
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DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2009
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The Carter Center, which was built as a segregated elementary school for Ellicott City's
African-American children, later served as the county's police station before its
expansion and conversion for recreational and educational use. It is also the site of the
county's only publicly owned and operated swimming pool.
Redevelopment
The subject is proposed as Phase I of the redevelopment effort. The subject property
will be a 206-unit mixed income community with 92 units having affordable restrictions.
The multifamily structures will be a mix of manor style houses, 2-over-2 townhomes and
small apartment buildings. There will be 1BR, 2BR and 3BR unit types. Eleven units
will target households with disabilities.
Each unit will have wall-to-wall carpeting, cable access, high speed Internet access and
split HVAC systems. Apartments will have fully applianced kitchens with dishwasher,
disposal and microwave. Washer/dryer hook-ups will be in each unit, though
community laundry facilities will also be provided. Utilities will be all-electric, with
residents responsible for paying the cost. Management will be responsible for trash and
cold water.
Included in the overall redevelopment, but financed separately, is a new 40,000 sq.ft.
state-of-the-art community recreation facility that is being built by Howard County.
Displacement
Occupancy in the existing properties is currently approximately 84%. All qualified
current residents will retain units in the redeveloped property. The goal is to have no
permanent displacement. The Developer will most likely lease offsite apartments (60 or
so) into which residents will be temporarily relocated. Existing buildings will be
demolished in phases, new structures will be built, then residents will be moved into
their new units. The relocation plan will tie into the construction phasing plan.
Income Targeting
All current residents wishing to maintain residency will be retained. LIHTC units will be
targeted to households earning 30% and 60% of area median income (AMI). Market
rate units will not have income restrictions. There will be no project-based rental
subsidies. Tables outlining the community’s proposed unit types and sizes, estimated
utilities, proposed contract rents and income targeting follow.
Page 8
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
SUBJECT SITE PHOTOGRAPHS
Hilltop Apartments
LIHTC Unit Mix
Units
6
10
6
46
6
18
92
Size
1BR/1BA
1BR/1BA
2BR/2BA
2BR/2BA
3BR/2BA
3BR/2BA
Sq.Ft.
700
700
925
925
1,200
1,200
Utilities
$100
$100
$125
$125
$150
$150
Contract
Rent
$345
$784
$409
$936
$466
$1,075
Target
Income
30% AMI
60% AMI
30% AMI
60% AMI
30% AMI
60% AMI
Hilltop Apartments
Market Rate Unit Mix
Units
19
65
30
114
Size
1BR/1BA
2BR/2BA
3BR/2BA
Sq.Ft.
700
925
1,200
Contract
Rent
$1,250
$1,675
$1,975
LIHTC Rent Analysis
LF&M has analyzed the subject’s rents in comparison to HUD guidelines. The
maximum rents cited below are based upon a household size of 1.5 persons per
bedroom.
Gross rents include utilities. The Developer estimates utility allowances as: $65 for 1BR
units, $88 for 2BR units and $124 for 3BR units. Residents are responsible for their
own electric for heat and hot water heating as well as electric cooking and personal
electric charges. The owner will pay for water and sewer as well as trash collection.
The maximum allowable gross and contract rents (calculated using the maximum utility
expenses for each unit size) under LIHTC guidelines in 2010 are:
Maximum Allowable LIHTC Rents
Unit Type
1BR/1BA (30%)
1BR/1BA (60%)
2BR/2BA (30%)
2BR/2BA (60%)
3BR/2BA (30%)
3BR/2BA (60%)
Max. Gross Rent
$462
$925
$555
$1,110
$641
$1,282
Page 9
Utilities
$100
$100
$125
$125
$150
$150
Max. Contract Rent
$362
$825
$430
$985
$491
$1,132
LF&M, then, calculates the maximum allowable 2010 contract rents for the subject as
ranging from $362-$1,132 per month.
LIHTC Incomes and Rents
Using CDA’s 2010 guidelines, maximum household incomes are capped at the following
levels in 2010 dollars:
Maximum Household Incomes
Target Population
1 Person
2 Persons
3 Persons
4 Persons
5 Persons
30% AMI
$17,280
$19,740
$22,200
$24,660
$26,640
60% AMI
$34,560
$39,480
$44,400
$49,320
$53,280
Residents will also need to earn minimum incomes sufficient to afford their rents.
LF&M's analysis will be performed at CDA's minimum income qualification standard in
which gross rent (contract rent plus utilities) must be no more than 30% of household
income.
Based on LF&M's knowledge of the practices of other family housing providers, the
typical management policy is that contract rent is up to 30%-35% of gross household
income. The CDA standard is, therefore, conservative.
Operating Expenses
The Developer has prepared an operating budget which is based upon a stabilized
occupancy of 93%. LF&M believes that such an occupancy rate is easily attainable
since the subject’s LIHTC rents will be significantly below market and the market units
will be very competitive within the marketplace—all in an excellent location.
LF&M has consulted the Institute of Real Estate Management's Income/Expense
Analysis: Conventional Apartments (2009 Edition) regarding operating expenses for
apartment properties comparable to the subject.
Please note that the IREM statistics are intended to serve as benchmarks, since no two
properties are ever going to encounter identical maintenance problems or run up the
same utility bills during the year--despite any of their locational, structural or other
similarities. The median expenses stated below might, therefore, be considered
"typical" expenses:
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Baltimore Metropolitan Area – 2008 Median Operating Costs/Unit
Elevator
Administrative
$1,822
Operating
$1,663
Maintenance
$1,215
Taxes/Insurance
$890
Recreation/Amenities
$51
Other Payroll
$654
Total All Expenses
$5,236
Source: Institute of Real Estate Management, 2009.
Garden
$1,026
$895
$828
$1,167
$65
$675
$4,637
The Developer estimates the subject property's annual operating expenses at $5,153
per unit excluding a $300 contribution to replacement reserves. Overall the subject’s
expenses are in line with the market, despite the fact that it will be providing additional
services to its residents.
LF&M finds, therefore, that the subject’s operating expenses are reasonable in light of
operating costs in the Baltimore Metropolitan Area.
C. NEIGHBORHOOD AND COMMUNITY SERVICES
The subject has excellent access to commercial and public service amenities, most
within an easy drive. At the corner of Baltimore National Pike and Rogers Avenue are
located PNC Bank and Rite Aid. Other shopping opportunities may be found
predominately along US Route 40 (Baltimore National Pike).
Commercial Services
Neighborhood shopping opportunities are in abundance, most being located along
Baltimore National Pike:

Super Fresh Supermarket located at 3301 North Ridge Road

Walmart located at 3200 North Ridge Road

St. John’s Crossing – This center is located at 9150 Baltimore National Pike. The
center is 87,760 sq.ft. and is anchored by Mar’s Super market. Other retailers
include Rite Aid, Advance Auto Parts, Bank of America, St. Johns Liquors, St. Johns
Cleaners, Wells Fargo Financial, Bare Bones Restaurant and Hair Affair

Chatham Station Shopping Center – Located at 9180 Baltimore National Pike, this
480,731 sq.ft. retail center is anchored by Giant Food, Home Depot and Sears.
Page 11
Other retailers include Einstein Bros Bagels, Goodyear, Hallmark, RadioShack
Burger King, Wachovia Bank and U.S. Cleaners.

Long Gate Center – This 405,000 sq.ft. community shopping center is anchored by
several national retailers, including Safeway, Target, Kohl’s and Barnes & Noble
Booksellers and includes other, smaller specialty shops, such as Old Navy,
Michael’s and Linens & Things. There are several national chain restaurants located
here, including McDonald’s, Outback Steakhouse, Carraba’s and Uno Pizzeria. The
center is located at Long Gate Parkway and Montgomery Road.

Main Street – Ellicott City’s historic Main Street is located a short distance from the
subject. This area offers a large selection of antique and specialty shops,
restaurants and cafés.
In addition, the Mall in Columbia is located approximately 4.8 miles south of the subject.
This regional center is a 1.5 million sq.ft. super-regional shopping mall with five anchor
department stores (Nordstrom, Lord & Taylor, Sears, Macy's, and JC Penney) and over
200 stores and restaurants. The mall also contains a 14-screen AMC movie theater, an
LL Bean retail store, a Cheesecake Factory restaurant and a Bank of America branch.
The Mall is the ultimate focal point and social center for all of Columbia and Howard
County.
Public Services
Public services serving the community include:




U.S. Post Office at 8267 Main Street,
Ellicott City Volunteer Fireman’s Association at 4150 Montgomery Road
Police Department at 3410 Courthouse Drive,
Library (Miller Branch) at 9421 Frederick Court Road.
Public Transit
Overall, Howard County is well served by public transportation. The Howard Transit
Yellow bus route currently has a designated transit stop at the subject site on Mt. Ida
Drive. This bus provides hourly service Monday through Friday (and limited service
Saturday) between the hours of 6:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. Scheduled bus service operates
daily along nine fixed routes throughout Ellicott City and Columbia as well as the MARC
stations in Savage, Elkridge and BWI Airport. The cost of a ride is $1.50 although a
monthly pass with unlimited service is available for $47 per month.
The Maryland Transit Authority (MTA) operates bus routes in various locations along
U.S. Route 40 and in Columbia for commuters traveling to either Baltimore or
Washington, D.C. These bus routes offer express service during the morning and
evening rush hours. The MARC commuter train has stops in Dorsey, Jessup and
Savage with connecting service to Columbia via Howard Transit.
Page 12
Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport and the nearby Amtrak
Station are located less than 20 minutes from the subject site via major highways.
Medical Services
The site has good access to medical and other support services which are crucial to the
health and well-being of its residents. Howard County General Hospital is located in
west Columbia at the intersection of Cedar Lane and Little Patuxent Parkway. It is
owned and operated by Johns Hopkins Hospital and is the County’s only full-service
medical facility. In addition to inpatient services, there are specialty clinics for treatment
of both heart disease and cancer.
Medical facilities serving the Ellicott City area include the Howard County Medical
Center on Chevrolet Drive, off St. John’s Lane. These two medical buildings are wellknown throughout the County for their well-established primary and specialty care
physicians.
Ellicott City Health Center is located at 8492 Baltimore National Pike in the Normandy
Shopping Center. This clinic, run by the Health Department, includes facilities for dental
and other specialized care. The main health clinic in the County is located at 7180
Columbia Gateway Drive.
This facility provides a host of services, including
immunizations, maternity care, HIV testing, etc.
There are numerous private physicians and other medical practitioners located
throughout Howard County.
Schools
Public schools serving the subject site are Veterans Elementary School, Dunloggin
Middle School and Centennial High School. Performance measures for each public
school and comparisons to other schools in the County are listed below. The following
MSA data is based on information from Maryland State Department of Education,
MDK12 and the 2009 Maryland Report Card.

Veterans Elementary School (Grades Pre-K through 5) is located at 4443
Montgomery Road. In 2009 the school had an enrollment of approximately 904
students. The 5th graders at Veterans Elementary lagged somewhat behind Howard
County 5th graders generally, with 63.4% reading at the proficient level compared to
71.1% for the County. In the 2008-2009 school years, 5th graders scored 91.6% in
reading at the proficient or advanced levels and 86.7% in math.

Dunloggin Middle School, located at 9129 Northfield Road had an enrollment of
approximately 515 students in 2009. Among Dunloggin Middle’s 8th graders, 91.9%
scored at the proficient or advanced levels in reading in the 2008-2009 school years.
Math scores were even higher, with 95.4% scoring at those levels.
Page 13

Centennial High School, located at 4300 Centennial Lane, originally opened in 1977.
Enrollment in 2009 was approximately 1,486 students. All 12th graders at Centennial
High School met the High School Assessments (HSAs) requirements for graduation
in 2009. According to the 2010 Maryland Report Card, the attendance rate was
95.7%. The school’s graduation rate was 96.2% with 80.4% of those graduates
planning to attend a four-year college and 7.7% planning to attend a two-year
college.
Higher Education
Howard Community College, located near Howard County General Hospital in
Columbia, opened its 120-acre campus in 1970. The college has grown tremendously
and now has an overall enrollment of approximately 23,000 full- and part-time students
in a variety of associate degree and transfer programs, such as nursing, computer
science, music, etc.
Both Johns Hopkins University and Loyola University Maryland are located in Columbia
Town Center and operate graduate satellite programs in such fields as engineering,
physics, computer science and business administration, among others. Other higher
education opportunities in Columbia include The Lincoln Technical Institute located at
9325 Snowden River Parkway and the University of Phoenix located at 8830 Stanford
Boulevard.
The University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) is located in nearby Catonsville at
the interchange of I-95 and I-195. This campus of the University of Maryland
specializes in physical and biological sciences, engineering, information technology and
the humanities. The school offers 37 undergraduate majors, 27 master’s degrees and
21 doctoral degree programs.
Recreation/Parks
Recreational facilities are numerous throughout Howard County. Howard County
Recreation and Parks have extensive programming for children, youth and adults,
including organized sports, at affordable rates.
The Roger Carter Pool and Recreation Center is located in historic Ellicott City, less
than a five minute car ride from the subject site. The Center offers the County’s only
public swimming pool. In addition, the Roger Carter/Hilltop After-School Program
provides low- and moderate-income children with a safe, structured environment in
which they receive academic assistance with homework assignments, technology
training, a cultural exposure component and help with nutritional food preparation.
The Howard County YMCA is located along Montgomery Road east of the subject site.
This facility offers and indoor swimming pool, exercise room and classes for both
children and adults at reasonable membership fees.
Page 14
There are over 7,000 acres of protected open space in Howard County in several state
and municipal parks. Many of these park areas are located in relatively close
geographic proximity to the subject including Patapsco Valley State Park, Patuxent
River State Park and Centennial Park.
Community Services Summary
The subject is, therefore, centrally located and proximate to a broad range of
commercial and public services. The following table notes critical services and the
distance to each service measured on a straight-line basis from the subject.
Community Services
(Distance from Subject)
Shopping
Healthcare
Pharmacy
Education
Public Transit
Library
Police
Fire
Parks
Recreation Center
Name
Distance
Super Fresh Supermarket
Howard County General Hospital
Rite Aid
Veterans Elementary
Howard Community College
Yellow-Howard County Transit
9421 Frederick Road
3410 Courthouse Drive
4150 Montgomery Road
Patapsco Valley State Park
3676 Fels Lane
0.85 miles
5.6 miles
0.75 mile
1.8 miles
5.38 miles
At front door
1.78 miles
0.25 miles
1.30 miles
2.20 miles
Three blocks
D. SUMMARY
In summary, the Hilltop Apartments are assessed as having many positive attributes
including:

Location - The subject is centrally located in Ellicott City. Quality schools, retail
opportunities, quality healthcare, public transportation are all easily available to the
subject’s residents.

Redevelopment - The subject is Phase I of the redevelopment of an obsolete and
underutilized public housing site—replacing existing improvements with a high
quality, mixed income multifamily development.

Affordable Rents - The subject offers 206 mixed income apartment units. The 92
affordable units will target households at 30%-60% AMI. Market rate apartments will
total 114. Affordable rental housing is an increasingly scarce commodity in the
expensive Howard County market.
Page 15

Employment - Residents will have access to ample employment opportunities in
Howard County, one of the strongest and fastest-growing employment markets in
the Washington-Baltimore region. BRAC-related development pressure will only
accelerate job creation, though it will also likely increase price pressure on housing.
Page 16
III. MARKET AREA TRENDS
In this section, LF&M defines the Primary Market Area from which the subject will draw
the majority of its residents. We then describe the demographic, housing and economic
trends within the area which will affect the property and its residents.
A. MARKET AREA DEFINITION
LF&M has defined the subject property’s geographic Primary Market Area (PMA) to be
the Ellicott City area of Howard County. We judge that the majority of the subject's
residents will be drawn from the defined PMA, which is generally bound as follows:
Patapsco River and rail lines to the north, Route 108 to the south, Patapsco State Park
and rail lines to the east and Turf Valley/Manor Road to the west.
This geographic area is known as Regional Planning District (RPD) 603-Ellicott City, as
defined by the Baltimore Metropolitan Council. The Ellicott City PMA consists of the
following eleven census tracts:
6021.00
6022.00
6023.02
6023.03
6023.04
6023.05
6023.06
6026.00
6027.00
6028.00
6029.00
The subject site is located in CT 6028.00. A map of the PMA is presented on the
following page.
LF&M has focused on the PMA characteristics which we believe are most relevant to
the demand for affordable multifamily housing in our defined geographic area within
Howard County. We have relied upon Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.
(ESRI) for 2010 and 2015 population and household estimates and forecasts and upon
the 2000 U.S. Census for our analysis of other trends. Though significant growth has
occurred in the PMA over the past decade, we judge that most of the trends and
relationships within the data sets revealed in the last census are likely valid in 2010.
In addition, LF&M compares trends within the Ellicott City PMA to those in Howard
County generally in order to add context to our analysis. Howard County has been
experiencing significant and steady growth and is the fastest growing county in the
Baltimore Metropolitan Region. The county is bounded to the north by Carroll County;
to the east by Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties; by Prince George’s and
Montgomery counties to the south; and Montgomery and Frederick counties to the west.
Page 17
Primary Market Area
Printed from BusinessMAP by ESRI.
B. DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
Population and Households
Population
As summarized in Table III-1, the total population in the PMA was 52,978 in the 2000
U.S. Census. This was an increase of 12,502 persons since the 1990 U.S. Census—a
30.9% increase in population during the decade. By 2010, the PMA population is
estimated to have increased an additional 7,907 persons to 60,885. Over the next five
years, it is anticipated that the population will increase at a somewhat slower pace—by
2,866 persons or 4.7%.
The total population in Howard County stood at 247,842 in 2000, an increase of 60,514
persons (32.3%) since 1990. The County’s population is estimated to have increased
by another 14.6% through 2010 and is expected to continue its growth by 4.6% during
the 2010-2015 period to total 296,964 persons by 2015.
In all periods, the PMA is growing at approximately the same rate as Howard County
overall.
Households
During the decade of the 1990’s, the number of PMA households increased by 4,260
(29.1%) to 18,922 in 2000. By 2010 there are an estimated 22,036 PMA households—
a figure which is expected to increase to 23,175 by 2015.
Howard County grew by 21,706 households (31.8%) during the 1990’s to a total of
90,043 households in 2000. The household count is estimated to be 102,847 in 2010.
The number of County households is expected to increase to 109,538 by 2015.
The PMA’s average household size is currently estimated at 2.74 persons per
household, slightly larger than the County’s average household size of 2.72 persons.
This indicates the presence of a solid proportion of families with children in both
geographies, as further described below.
Types of Households
The types of households residing in the PMA and in Howard County in 2000 are
summarized in Table III-2. The following characteristics are critical factors in the type of
housing which is required in those areas:

Family Households - While the overwhelming majority of households in the PMA
(76.6%) and the County (73.6%) are family households, the PMA has a higher
proportion of married couple families than Howard County as a whole (66.9% vs.
Page 18
Table III-1
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Population and Households
PMA and Howard County
1990, 2000, 2010, 2015
Population:
1990
PMA
Howard County
2000
2010
Change (00-10)
Persons
Percent
2015
Change (10-15)
Persons
Percent
40,476
52,978
12,502
30.9%
60,885
7,907
14.9%
63,751
2,866
4.7%
187,328
247,842
60,514
32.3%
283,917
36,075
14.6%
296,964
13,047
4.6%
1990
2000
Households:
PMA
Change (90-00)
Persons
Percent
Change (90-00)
Households
Percent
2010
Change (00-10)
Households
Percent
2015
Change (10-15)
Households
Percent
Average Household Size
14,662
2.75
18,922
2.77
4,260
0.02
29.1%
0.7%
22,036
2.74
3,114
-0.03
16.5%
-1.1%
23,175
2.73
1,139
-0.01
5.2%
-0.4%
Howard County
Average Household Size
68,337
2.71
90,043
2.71
21,706
0.00
31.8%
0.0%
102,847
2.72
12,804
0.01
14.2%
0.4%
109,538
2.72
6,691
0.00
6.5%
0.0%
Source: 1990 & 2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing; 2010 & 2015 ESRI estimates and forecasts;
Table III-2
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Households by Household Type
Primary Market Area and Howard County
2000
PMA
Households
% of Total
Howard County
Households
% of Total
Total Households
18,945
100.0%
90,102
100.0%
Family Households
14,518
76.6%
66,355
73.6%
12,679
6,899
5,780
66.9%
36.4%
30.5%
55,067
29,281
25,086
61.1%
32.5%
27.8%
446
236
210
2.4%
1.2%
1.1%
2,948
1,565
1,383
3.3%
1.7%
1.5%
1,393
889
504
7.4%
4.7%
2.7%
8,340
5,415
2,925
9.3%
6.0%
3.2%
831
490
341
4.4%
2.6%
1.8%
5,061
2,651
2,410
5.6%
2.9%
2.7%
3,596
1,547
2,049
19.0%
8.2%
10.8%
18,686
8,126
10,560
20.7%
9.0%
11.7%
Married Couple Family
with own children under 18
no own children under 18
Male Householder, no wife present
with own children under 18
no own children under 18
Female Householder, no husband present
with own children under 18
no own children under 18
Nonfamily Households
Male Householder
Female Householder
1 Person Household
Male Householder
Female Householder
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, SF-3, P10, 2000; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC.
61.1%).
Over half of those married couples have minor children in both
geographies.

Female Householder - Households headed by a female represent 7.4% of all PMA
households, a proportion lower than the County’s 9.3%. Almost two-thirds (63.8%)
of PMA female householders are raising minor children. These households typically
have fewer financial resources than married couple households with children.

Single Person Households – Nearly one-fifth (19.0%) of PMA households are single
persons, a share lower than the County’s 20.7%. The majority (57.0%) of the PMA’s
single person households are females.
Householder Age by Tenure
As summarized in Table III-3, 25.1% of all households in the PMA were renters in
2000—a somewhat lower proportion than the County’s 26.2%. In the PMA, renters are
in the majority only for the prime renter demographic of households age 15-34 years.
The PMA had a homeownership rate slightly higher than the County overall in 2000:
74.9% as compared to the County’s 73.8%.
C. HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
As recorded in the Census (Table III-4), there were 18,922 occupied housing units in
the PMA in 2000. Characteristics of the housing supply relevant to our analysis include:
Structure Type
The predominant type of housing in both the PMA and County markets is single family
structures (detached and attached). In the PMA there is an exceedingly low proportion
of townhomes compared to the County as a whole (12.3% vs. 20.9%) and a much
higher proportion (65.4% vs. 54.6%) of detached homes.
Homeowners in both the PMA and County reside almost exclusively in single family
homes: 98.5% and 92.9% respectively.
Almost four-fifths (79.7%) of renters in the PMA live in larger multifamily structures of
more than five units, as compared to 68.5% in the County overall. Less than one-tenth
(9.4%) of PMA renters live in townhome units—a significantly lower proportion than the
County’s 16.9% overall.
Owner-Occupied Housing
Housing in Howard County covers a broad spectrum, including working farms, single
family subdivisions, townhomes and multifamily rental and for-sale communities. Most
Page 19
Table III-3
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Age of Householder by Tenure
Primary Market Area and Howard County
2000
Owner
Households
Renter
Households
Total Households
Households
% by Age
Percent of Households
Owner
Renter
Primary Market Area
Total
14,176
4,746
18,922
100.0%
74.9%
25.1%
15-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65+ years
12
1,162
3,901
4,477
2,160
2,464
477
1,369
989
859
258
794
489
2,531
4,890
5,336
2,418
3,258
2.6%
13.4%
25.8%
28.2%
12.8%
17.2%
2.5%
45.9%
79.8%
83.9%
89.3%
75.6%
97.5%
54.1%
20.2%
16.1%
10.7%
24.4%
Total
66,414
23,629
90,043
100.0%
73.8%
26.2%
15-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65+ years
420
9,057
19,463
18,924
10,562
7,988
2,064
7,863
6,012
3,424
1,541
2,725
2,484
16,920
25,475
22,348
12,103
10,713
2.8%
18.8%
28.3%
24.8%
13.4%
11.9%
16.9%
53.5%
76.4%
84.7%
87.3%
74.6%
83.1%
46.5%
23.6%
15.3%
12.7%
25.4%
Howard County
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, SF-3, Table H-14, 2000.
Table III-4
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Occupied Housing by Structure Type
Primary Market Area and Howard County
2000
Homeowner
Units
% of Total
Units
Renter
% of Total
Units
Total
% of Total
Primary Market Area
1, detached
1, attached
2
3-4
5-9
10-19
20-49
50 or more
Mobile home
Other
TOTAL
12,075
1,879
16
40
52
72
34
0
0
8
14,176
85.2%
13.3%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
100.0%
301
444
91
130
1,626
1,193
456
497
0
8
4,746
6.3%
9.4%
1.9%
2.7%
34.3%
25.1%
9.6%
10.5%
0.0%
0.2%
100.0%
12,376
2,323
107
170
1,678
1,265
490
497
0
16
18,922
65.4%
12.3%
0.6%
0.9%
8.9%
6.7%
2.6%
2.6%
0.0%
0.1%
100.0%
Howard County
1, detached
1, attached
2
3-4
5-9
10-19
20-49
50 or more
Mobile home
Other
TOTAL
46,861
14,843
90
242
1,027
1,387
271
168
1,513
12
66,414
70.6%
22.3%
0.1%
0.4%
1.5%
2.1%
0.4%
0.3%
2.3%
0.0%
100.0%
2,330
3,999
312
804
4,522
7,600
1,366
2,451
219
26
23,629
9.9%
16.9%
1.3%
3.4%
19.1%
32.2%
5.8%
10.4%
0.9%
0.1%
100.0%
49,191
18,842
402
1,046
5,549
8,987
1,637
2,619
1,732
38
90,043
54.6%
20.9%
0.4%
1.2%
6.2%
10.0%
1.8%
2.9%
1.9%
0.0%
100.0%
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, SF-3, H-32, 2000.
of the housing in the County is oriented towards middle and upper income homebuyers.
In fact, the County's prices are second only to Montgomery County among Maryland
jurisdictions, making homeownership affordability a very real issue for moderate income
households.
Residential real estate values for all owner-occupied housing in the PMA are illustrated
in Table III-5. ESRI estimates the 2010 PMA median home value at $429,508, which is
16.6% higher than the County's median of $368,238.
Rental Housing
Rents charged in the PMA (Table III-6) were lower than those charged throughout
Howard County. The 2000 PMA median contract rent (not including utilities) was
$658—17.5% lower than the County’s overall median contract rent of $798 per month.
In the PMA and the County, nearly one-tenth of rents were lower than $500—pointing to
a similar concentration of subsidized rental housing in both geographies. Rents in the
PMA tended to be concentrated in the mid-range (62.0% between $500 and $749),
whereas County rents tended to be focused in a higher price range (49.6% between
$750 and $1,249) in the County overall—likely due to the influence of the Columbia
market.
It should be noted that, according to the 2000 Census, over one-third (33.9%) of
Howard County renter households paid more than 30% of their incomes towards total
housing expenses (i.e., rent plus utilities or “gross rent”) at that time. LF&M judges that
that proportion has only increased in recent years. Households paying more than 30%
of income towards housing expenses are considered “housing cost burdened” by HUD.
D. ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
Income Trends
In Table III-7, LF&M has summarized income trends for the PMA and Howard County
based on the 2000 U.S Census and ESRI estimates for 2010 and 2015. Attention
should be given to the following issues:

Household Incomes - ESRI estimates the median household income for the PMA in
2010 at $105,500, which is 3.5% higher than the County median of $101,954.
Households in the PMA earning less than $25,000 comprised 7.7% of all households
as compared to 6.6% of County households overall in that category. PMA incomes
are slightly more diverse, with 27.2% of households earning more than $150,000 in
2010 as compared to 25.0% for the County.

Very Low Income Households - The proportion of very low income households
(those with incomes less than $15,000 annually) in the PMA is small, only 4.0% of
Page 20
Table III-5
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Estimated Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units
PMA and Howard County
2010
PMA
Units
Less than $10,000
$10,000 - $14,999
$15,000 - $19,999
$20,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $29,999
$30,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $39,999
$40,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $59,999
$60,000 - $69,999
$70,000 - $79,999
$80,000 - $89,999
$90,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $124,999
$125,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $174,999
$175,000 - $199,999
$200,000 - $249,999
$250,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
$400,000 - $499,999
$500,000 - $749,999
$750,000 - $999,999
$1,000,000 or more
Total
Median Value
% of Total
Howard County
Units
% of Total
0
0
0
0
3
5
12
39
16
12
17
27
11
22
69
125
330
1,053
1,220
3,841
3,799
4,405
740
100
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.8%
2.1%
6.6%
7.7%
24.2%
24.0%
27.8%
4.7%
0.6%
131
83
85
104
181
170
120
295
150
153
187
248
371
818
1,384
2,169
3,301
8,342
7,929
16,611
11,663
14,270
5,196
1,151
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
1.1%
1.8%
2.9%
4.4%
11.1%
10.6%
22.1%
15.5%
19.0%
6.9%
1.5%
15,846
$429,508
100.0%
75,112
$368,238
100.0%
Source: ESRI estimate, 2010; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC.
Table III-6
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Contract Rent of Specified Renter Occupied Units
PMA and Howard County
2000
PMA
Units
< $100
$100 - $149
$150 - $199
$200 - $249
$250 - $299
$300 - $349
$350 - $399
$400 - $449
$450 - $499
$500 - $549
$550 - $599
$600 - $649
$650 - $699
$700 - $749
$750 - $799
$800 - $899
$900 - $999
$1,000 - $1,249
$1,250 - $1,499
$1,500 - $1,999
$2,000 +
No Cash Rent
% of Total
Howard County
Units
% of Total
72
43
18
34
8
52
32
49
114
430
637
717
647
473
234
335
147
165
94
215
105
61
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.7%
0.2%
1.1%
0.7%
1.0%
2.4%
9.2%
13.6%
15.3%
13.8%
10.1%
5.0%
7.2%
3.1%
3.5%
2.0%
4.6%
2.2%
1.3%
430
290
223
233
148
217
184
319
414
854
1,005
1,417
1,567
2,214
2,029
4,428
2,800
2,354
820
694
275
492
1.8%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.9%
0.8%
1.4%
1.8%
3.6%
4.3%
6.1%
6.7%
9.5%
8.7%
18.9%
12.0%
10.1%
3.5%
3.0%
1.2%
2.1%
Renter Occ. Units
4,682
100.0%
23,407
100.0%
Median Contract Rent
$658
$798
Source: 2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC
Table III-7
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Household Incomes
PMA and Howard County
2000, 2010, 2015
2000
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,000
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or more
Total Households
Median Income
2010
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,000
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or more
Total Households
Median Income
2015
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,000
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or more
Total Households
Median Income
Households:
PMA
County
Percent by Income:
PMA
County
925
1,091
1,434
2,136
3,345
3,149
4,127
1,677
1,061
4,400
4,594
6,404
10,756
19,397
15,821
17,661
6,524
4,545
4.9%
5.8%
7.6%
11.3%
17.7%
16.6%
21.8%
8.9%
5.6%
27.1%
5.1%
7.1%
11.9%
21.5%
17.6%
19.6%
7.2%
5.0%
18,945
$78,245
90,102
$74,181
100.0%
122.2%
Households:
PMA
County
Percent by Income:
PMA
County
888
822
1,092
1,854
3,043
2,460
5,881
3,342
2,654
3,794
3,018
3,982
8,799
16,521
13,789
27,269
14,259
11,416
4.0%
3.7%
5.0%
8.4%
13.8%
11.2%
26.7%
15.2%
12.0%
3.7%
2.9%
3.9%
8.6%
16.1%
13.4%
26.5%
13.9%
11.1%
22,036
$105,500
102,847
$101,954
100.0%
100.0%
Households:
PMA
County
Percent by Income:
PMA
County
684
622
734
1,328
2,828
1,656
7,185
4500
3638
3,959
3,171
4,115
9,648
19,609
10,657
30,269
15,355
12,755
3.0%
2.7%
3.2%
5.7%
12.2%
7.1%
31.0%
19.4%
15.7%
3.6%
2.9%
3.8%
8.8%
17.9%
9.7%
27.6%
14.0%
11.6%
23,175
$125,550
109,538
$107,127
100.0%
100.0%
Source: 2000 US Census; ESRI estimates and forecasts, 2010; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC.
PMA households in 2010. This is a proportion only slightly greater than the County’s
3.7%.
Poverty Status
As outlined in Table III-8, only a small proportion of households in the PMA are severely
economically distressed. In 2000, the proportion of households below the poverty line
was 3.5% in the PMA as contrasted with 3.6% in the County as a whole. We also note
the following:

Married Couple Households - Married couple households tend to fare better
economically than other households due to the likelihood of having two earners or a
strong primary earner, with over 98% of all married couples in both the PMA and
County earning above the poverty line.

Female Householder with Children - The largest single group of households living in
poverty in both the PMA and County is households headed by females with minor
children. The poverty rate for this group was 11.1% in the PMA and 13.4% in the
County.

Senior Households - The proportion of senior households living in poverty in the
PMA was 5.7%, a proportion somewhat lower than the County’s 7.0%. We judge
that a high proportion of these seniors were female householders living alone.
Income by Tenure
Table III-9 addresses the issue of dramatic income disparity between homeowners and
renters. In 2000, the median income of PMA owners ($93,781) was almost double that
of PMA renters ($48,509). For Howard County as a whole, the income disparity was
similar, with homeowners having a $86,933 median income as compared to a median of
$44,315 for renters.
Whereas more than one quarter (27.5%) of PMA renters earned less than $25,000 per
year, only 5.2% of owners were in that income range. Approximately one quarter
(23.6%) of the lowest income (<$25,000) renters in Howard County lived in the PMA.
In 2000, among the 2,041 PMA households earning less than $25,000 per year, over
three fifths (63.8%) were renters. These households were renters by necessity, not by
choice.
Employment
In the past three decades, Howard County has shifted from a primarily farming
community to a combination urban and rural community due to the County’s active
promotion of economic development and its central location between Washington, DC
and Baltimore.
Page 21
Table III-8
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Poverty Status of Households by Family Type
PMA and Howard County
2000
PMA
Poverty Level
Below
At or Above
Hhlds
Total
% by Type
% of Households
Below
At or Above
Total
662
18,283
18,945
100.0%
3.5%
96.5%
Family Households
Male Householder, no wife present
w/ Related Children under 18
313
29
21
14,205
417
248
14,518
446
269
76.6%
2.4%
1.4%
2.2%
6.5%
7.8%
97.8%
93.5%
92.2%
Female Householder, no husband present
w/ Related Children under 18
106
106
1,287
845
1,393
951
7.4%
5.0%
7.6%
11.1%
92.4%
88.9%
Married-Couple Family
w/ Related Children under 18
178
139
12,501
6,896
12,679
7,035
66.9%
37.1%
1.4%
2.0%
98.6%
98.0%
Nonfamily Households
Male Householder
Female Householder
349
117
232
4,078
1,920
2,158
4,427
2,037
2,390
23.4%
10.8%
12.6%
7.9%
5.7%
9.7%
92.1%
94.3%
90.3%
Householder Over 65
172
2,829
3,001
15.8%
5.7%
94.3%
Howard County
Poverty Level
Below
At or Above
Hholds
Total
% by Type
% of Households
Below
At or Above
Total
3,288
86,814
90,102
100.0%
3.6%
96.4%
Family Households
Male Householder, no wife present
w/ Related Children under 18
1,688
150
104
64,667
2,798
1,630
66,355
12,891
1,734
73.6%
5.0%
1.9%
2.5%
1.2%
6.0%
97.5%
80.3%
94.0%
Female Householder, no husband present
w/ Related Children under 18
843
791
7,497
5,131
8,340
5,922
9.3%
6.6%
10.1%
13.4%
89.9%
86.6%
Married-Couple Family
w/ Related Children under 18
695
436
54,372
30,247
55,067
30,683
61.1%
34.1%
1.3%
1.4%
98.7%
98.6%
1,600
568
1,032
22,147
10,209
11,938
23,747
10,777
12,970
26.4%
12.0%
14.4%
6.7%
5.3%
8.0%
93.3%
94.7%
92.0%
718
9,576
10,294
11.4%
7.0%
93.0%
Nonfamily Households
Male Householder
Female Householder
Householder Over 65
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing 2000, SF-3, Tables P90, P92
Table III-9
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Household Income by Tenure
PMA and Howard County
2000
PMA
<$5,000
$5,000-$9,999
$10,000-$14,999
$15,000-$19,999
$20,000-$24,999
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000 +
Total
Median
Howard County
Homeowners
Households
Percent
Renters
Households
Percent
Total
78
91
132
198
239
647
1,130
2,417
2,727
3,913
2,604
26.9%
29.7%
39.4%
39.2%
39.5%
45.0%
53.5%
71.8%
86.4%
93.9%
98.6%
212
215
203
307
366
791
981
949
429
255
38
73.1%
70.3%
60.6%
60.8%
60.5%
55.0%
46.5%
28.2%
13.6%
6.1%
1.4%
290
306
335
505
605
1,438
2,111
3,366
3,156
4,168
2,642
14,176
$93,781
74.9%
4,746
$48,509
25.1%
18,922
Homeowners
Households
Percent
Renters
Households
Percent
Total
<$5,000
$5,000-$9,999
$10,000-$14,999
$15,000-$19,999
$20,000-$24,999
$25,000-$34,999
$35,00-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000 +
396
406
640
853
1,234
3,290
6,167
13,717
13,116
16,246
10,349
31.0%
26.9%
39.9%
42.7%
46.6%
51.6%
57.6%
70.3%
83.4%
91.5%
94.7%
883
1,106
964
1,144
1,413
3,082
4,547
5,796
2,603
1,517
574
69.0%
73.1%
60.1%
57.3%
53.4%
48.4%
42.4%
29.7%
16.6%
8.5%
5.3%
1,279
1,512
1,604
1,997
2,647
6,372
10,714
19,513
15,719
17,763
10,923
Total
Median
66,414
$86,933
73.8%
23,629
$44,315
26.2%
90,043
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 2000: SF-3, QT-H11; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC.
LF&M has reviewed the structure of the Howard County economy using the Maryland
Department of Labor’s employment and wage statistics for the fourth quarter of 2009,
presented in Table III-10. The sectoral analysis of at-place-of-work employment,
comparing Howard County to the State of Maryland follows:

Government Sector – Howard County has proportionately fewer government jobs
(12.6%) than the State as a whole (19.9%). Federal and state government workers
represent a much lower proportion of the County’s employment, while the proportion
of local government employees is similar to the state-wide average.

Goods Producing Sector - The City’s goods producing sector (11.3%) is similar to
the State's (11.0%) as a whole, although the proportion of construction jobs in the
County (6.8%) is somewhat larger than the State’s (6.0%)—appropriate for a
growing jurisdiction.

Service Providing Sector - The service providing sector represents a much larger
share of the County’s economy, with the County having proportionately more jobs in
Trade, Transportation, Utilities than does the State (22.3% vs. 17.9%) and in
Professional & Business Services (24.1% vs. 15.6%). The TTU sector is heavily
influenced by retail employment and Howard County has a high concentration of
those opportunities as an affluent suburban jurisdiction, anchored by Columbia Mall.
The County is a major business location due to its strategic location on I-95 between
Baltimore and Washington.

Wages - Howard County wages overall are at a level slightly higher than those
prevailing throughout the State, exhibiting a 7.3% premium in 4Q09.
Reviewing the most current statistics available (July 2010) from the State,
unemployment in Howard County has remained stable at 5.7% as compared to 12
months earlier. Only Montgomery County is reported to have an unemployment rate
that low. During the same period, the Baltimore-Towson MSA and the State of
Maryland each saw their unemployment rates increase to 8.2% and 7.6% respectively.
The statistics are not seasonally adjusted.
Labor Force, Unemployment & Unemployment
Unemp. Rate
Labor
Force
Employment
Unemp.
7/10
7/09
Howard County
158,557
149,449
9,108
5.7%
5.7%
MSA
1,400,598
1,286,138
114,460
8.2%
7.9%
3,006,345
2,778,607
227,738
Maryland
Source: MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing and Regulation
7.6%
7.4%
Howard County is a major center of employment and industry in the BaltimoreWashington metro area. There are approximately 70 business and industrial parks in
Page 22
Table III-10
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Average Employment by NAICS Sector
Howard County, State of Maryland
Fourth Quarter Average 2009
Average Employment
Howard
Maryland
Total Employment
Government Sector - Total
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
Private Sector Total - All Industries
Goods Producing
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service Providing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Unclassified
Percent of Total
Howard
Maryland
Howard
Avg. Weekly Wages
MD
Diff.
143,039
2,464,445
100.0%
100.0%
$1,131
$1,054
7.3%
18,046
619
3,290
14,137
489,774
134,298
101,167
254,309
12.6%
0.4%
2.3%
9.9%
19.9%
5.4%
4.1%
10.3%
$995
$1,321
$822
$1,021
$1,192
$1,723
$904
$1,026
-16.5%
-23.3%
-9.1%
-0.5%
124,993
1,974,671
87.4%
80.1%
$1,150
$1,019
12.9%
16,109
406
9,763
5,940
270,436
6,226
147,480
116,730
11.3%
0.3%
6.8%
4.2%
11.0%
0.3%
6.0%
4.7%
$1,214
$832
$1,208
$1,249
$1,210
$769
$1,153
$1,306
0.3%
8.2%
4.8%
-4.4%
108,884
31,867
3,501
8,176
34,480
14,955
11,616
4,289
1,704,043
441,071
47,169
139,821
383,900
382,692
222,290
87,100
76.1%
22.3%
2.4%
5.7%
24.1%
10.5%
8.1%
3.0%
69.1%
17.9%
1.9%
5.7%
15.6%
15.5%
9.0%
3.5%
$1,141
$972
$1,580
$1,393
$1,629
$876
$356
$682
$989
$798
$1,424
$1,436
$1,558
$972
$390
$681
15.4%
21.8%
11.0%
-3.0%
4.6%
-9.9%
-8.7%
0.1%
0
192
0.0%
0.0%
$0
$1,534
-100.0%
Source: Office of Labor Market Analysis & Information, MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation, 2010.
the County as well as 45 retail centers. Altogether, it is estimated that there are more
than 8,000 businesses in Howard County. Howard County’s strong economic
development performance makes this jurisdiction a very dynamic employment
environment.
In addition, according to Howard County Economic Development Authority, the County
will benefit over the next five to seven years from the influx of new jobs as a result of the
2005 Base Realignment and Closure Act (BRAC). The creation of roughly 22,000 new
jobs over the next five years at both Fort Meade and the National Security Agency
(NSA) in Anne Arundel County will clearly have a direct and positive impact on the
neighboring Howard County economy.
While many residents both live and work in Howard County, there are strong highway
networks which connect the County to both Washington, DC and Baltimore metropolitan
areas with their large concentrations of professional, technical and government jobs. As
of the 2000 U.S. Census, 51.8% of all County workers age 16 and older worked outside
Howard County and an additional 10.2% worked outside the State of Maryland,
presumably primarily in the District of Columbia.
E. SAFETY STATISTICS
The Howard County Police Department actively tracks crime throughout the County.
The subject’s immediate neighborhood is served by the Northern District Headquarters
(Area 213). Police statistics for the area in 2009 report: 41 thefts, 33 incidents of
vandalism; 11 burglaries; 11 vehicle thefts; 9 aggravated assaults; 76 drug violations,
14 incidents of disorderly conduct, and one rape.
According to the 2009 Howard County Department of Police Annual Report, there was a
13.2% reduction in Part I serious crime in the County between 2008 and 2009. Serious
crime levels remained reasonably consistent with 2005-2007 levels. Part II offenses
saw a smaller 0.7% decline. Burglaries were reduced in part due to early recognition of
emerging trends, identification of repeat offenders, surveillance operations, increased
patrols and community outreach. In comparison to 2008, homicides also decreased
from four to two. Aggravated assaults increased from 404 to 437 cases and rape
increased from 36 to 43.
Overall, the Howard County Department of Police met their expectations for 2009. Many
of their accomplishments included increased patrol staffing, new Repeat Offenders
Proactive Enforcement Unit, youth programs, two new satellite offices, new Spanish
interpreter position created to address the communication gap between HCPD and
residents. Over the past several years, 54 new sworn positions were filled allowing the
department to implement new units focused on domestic violence, gang detection and
apprehension, gun violence and computer crimes. The department also created units to
work specifically with the growing senior population.
Page 23
F. AREA INVESTMENT
The subject’s Primary Market Area is benefiting from significant private and public
investment. According to the Baltimore Metropolitan Council which tracks new
residential and non-residential projects authorized by building permits and valued at $1
million+ within the region, the subject’s Regional Planning District 603 benefited from
over $100 million in private commercial investment in recent years including:
8215 Stone Crop Drive
4253 Montgomery Road
Howard County BD of Ed.
Glen Mar UM Church
Howard County
Howard County
Howard Co Bd. of Ed.
Howard Co Bd. of Ed.
Executive Park Dr. Assoc.
Project Description
Value
Units
16 unit res. condo building
27 unit res. condo building
Alterations to Worthington ES
Addition for education wing
New building
Convert into Maintenance Fac.
New modular blgs Mt Hebron HS
Addition to St. Johns La ES
New bank building
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$10,960,900
$3,200,000
$3,120,000
$2,500,000
$1,870,532
$1,111,056
$1,100,000
16
27
In addition several residential projects were added to the PMA:

Alta at Regency Crest- Currently under construction, this project is located just off
Route 40 (Baltimore National Pike) on Rogers Avenue. Upon completion the project
will contain 150 luxury apartment units for active adults ages 62 and better. The
project is being developed by Wood Partners and expected to be completed by
Spring 2011.

Montjoy – This is a planned residential community located on 76 acres which
opened in 2007. The community consists of 118 townhouses and 62 single family
detached homes. Original selling prices were between $750,000 - $1,000,000. In
addition, the community has 286 multifamily rental apartments known as Elms at
Montjoy. The rental community offers 1BR, 2BR and 3BR floor plans. Monthly rents
range $1,310 to $2,020 with 830-1,650 sq.ft. of living areas. The property also offers
community amenities such as a swimming pool, clubhouse and fitness center.

The Gathering at Jefferson Place - This new community is located along
Montgomery Road in Ellicott City. The active adult community opened in 2009 and
was developed by Beazer Homes. The community offers four different 2BR
floorplans. Select units include detached garage and study. Original pricing ranged
$246,900-$368,000.
Page 24
G. SUMMARY
In summary, Howard County has been the fastest growing metropolitan county within
the Baltimore area during the past decade. The Ellicott City PMA has fully participated
in that growth.

Population & Household Trends - Howard County has been the fastest growing
metropolitan county within the Baltimore area during the past decade. The Ellicott
City PMA has fully participated in that growth. In 2010 there are an estimated
22,036 PMA households—a figure which is expected to increase to 23,175 by 2015.

Housing Trends - The PMA has a higher homeownership rate (74.9% in 2000) and
higher owner-occupied housing values ($429,508 estimated median value in 2010)
than Howard County. Over one-third (33.9%) of Howard County renter households,
however, were housing cost burdened in 2000—paying more than 30% of their
incomes towards total housing expenses.

Economic Trends - The PMA is located within one of the most diverse and dynamic
County economies in the Baltimore-Washington area, offering the subject’s residents
access to many employment, educational and other opportunities. The PMA’s
estimated median household income of $105,550 in 2010 is 3.5% higher than
Howard County’s $101,954 median.
The subject is planned to offer mixed income rental housing, providing affordable and
market rate apartments in a well-managed community setting—within a County which
experiences continuing housing price pressure due to high demand. That demand will
only increase further with the influence of BRAC.
Page 25
IV. COMPETITIVE SUPPLY
In this section, LF&M reviews conditions in the existing multifamily rental communities in
the subject’s Ellicott City Primary Market Area. A map illustrating the locations of those
communities follows. Photographs of all properties are included at the end of this
section.
A. HOWARD COUNTY APARTMENT SUPPLY
LF&M has reviewed the Howard County Department of Housing & Community
Development's "2009 Howard County Rental Survey," the most recent and
comprehensive statistics on the County's rental housing stock. In 2009, the County’s
rental inventory was comprised of over 20,000 multifamily units (16,237 market rate in
63 communities; 2,679 of them affordable or subsidized in 28 communities) and 1,202
scatter-site rentals. The report found:

Within the market rate multifamily stock, 601 units were reported vacant—which
translated into an overall vacancy rate of 3.8%. Compared with survey data from
August 2008, average rents in the county had fallen at an average annual rate of
1.2% across 1BR, 2BR and 3BR units. The 2BR rents fell by 3.3% and 3BR rents
fell by 1.2%, while 1BR rents remained stable.

The rental inventory increased by 15.2% during the 1996-2009 period. Two new
market rate communities were added to the Howard County rental inventory in 2005:
the Elms at Montjoy and Evergreen. Since the 2008 survey, no new market rate
multifamily communities had been added in the Howard County rental market.

The typical market-rate multifamily rental unit in Howard County was built
approximately 21 years earlier. Over 41% of Columbia’s multifamily rental inventory
was built in the 1980’s compared to 29% of the inventory outside of Columbia.
Recent construction and rehabilitation has reduced the average age of the rental
inventory outside of Columbia. Approximately 28% of multifamily rental units outside
Columbia have been built or rehabilitated since 2000. In comparison, only 23.0% of
the market-rate multifamily units in Columbia were built or rehabilitated since 2000.

Ten affordable communities (all LIHTC) contained 1,199 apartments; only three
communities accepted families, the remaining properties were age-restricted.
Eighteen subsidized communities contained 1,480 apartments; only three
communities containing 210 units were age-restricted. Approximately 13.1% of the
total rental inventory was in the affordable or subsidized categories—about one-third
of those units being reserved for seniors. The newest family LIHTC property was
Port Capital Village in the Elkridge area, which opened in 2007 and includes 84
units.
Page 26
B. MARKET RATE APARTMENTS
LF&M has surveyed six professionally managed market rate multifamily rental housing
communities in the PMA. Overall, these properties have been well maintained and
have convenient, accessible locations. They represent typical mid-market offerings.
Most of the communities include desirable community amenities, including swimming
pool and playground, units with patios or balconies and in-unit washer/dryer, etc. Each
of these properties is described briefly below and further described in Table IV-1.

Charleston Manor - Formerly Normandy Woods Apartments, this community is a
858-unit apartment complex located at 3182 Normandy Woods Drive. Units were
renovated in 2008 and include kitchens with new cabinets, flooring countertops,
appliances, wall to wall carpet. Select units include washer/dryer. The units also
include a balcony or patio. Community amenities include two playgrounds, fitness
center, business center, Olympic size swimming pool, tennis courts, car care area,
community lounge and party room.
Contract rents range $998-$1,485 for 691-1,079 sq.ft. of living area. The property
also offers upgraded units with rents ranging $1,035-$1,575. The heating type is
gas and residents are responsible for all utilities excluding water and sewer. The
property is currently managed by the Donaldson Group and is reported to be 96.5%
occupied. Concessions being offered include one half month free on select units
with a signed 13 month lease.

Chatham Gardens – This large, 414-unit property consists of garden-style
apartments built in two sections in 1976 (198 units) and 1981 (216 units). The
property, which is managed by Century Corporation was renovated in 2006 with new
kitchens and baths. Overall, units in both sections are identical with the exception of
the fact that the apartments in the newer section include an in-unit washer and dryer.
There is a laundry room in each building in the older section.
Contract rents range $1,030-$1,430 with living areas ranging 878-1,258 sq.ft.
Management includes water, sewer and trash in the contract rents. Tenants are
responsible for their electric utilities. Community amenities include swimming pool
and playground. The property is conveniently located adjacent to the Chatham
Station retail center, anchored by Giant Food, Home Depot and K-Mart.
Management reports occupancy to be 98%. The property is also offering a reduced
security deposit of $98.

Howard Crossing - Formerly known as Town & Country Apartments, this 1,350-unit
garden style community was originally built in the late 1960’s and is located at 8732
Town & Country Boulevard. The property offers 1BR and 2BR floorplans. Apartment
amenities include fully equipped kitchens with dishwasher, garbage disposal, icemaker, microwave, ceiling fan and wall to wall carpeting. Select units include
washer/dryers; laundry facilities are located in buildings where washer/dryers are not
Page 27
Table IV-1
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
PMA Market Rate Apartments
September 2010
Utilities
Units
Unit Type
Occupancy Monthly Average Rent per
Sq.Ft.
Sq. Ft.
Rate
Rent
Charleston Manor
3182 Normandy Woods Drive
Ellicott City, MD 21043
(410) 465-8600
The Donaldson Group
392
52
278
72
46
18
858
1BR/1BA
1BR/den
2BR/1BA
2BR/2BA
2BR/1BA/den
2BR/2BA/den
96.5%
Chatham Gardens
3372 North Chatham Road
Ellicott City, MD 21043
(410) 465-7598
Century Corporation
126
12
253
23
414
1BR/1BA
1BR/1.5BA/den
2BR/2BA
2BR/2BA/den
Howard Crossing Apartments
8732 Town & Country Blvd
Ellicott City, MD 21043
410-465-3400
Hirschfield
Kaiser Park
8120 Randolph Way
Ellicott City, Maryland 21043
410465-2454
HAI Management
Tenant Pays
Features & Amenities
$998
$1,125
$1,203
$1,300
$1,330
$1,485
691
794
915
937
1,045
1,079
$1.44
$1.42
$1.31
$1.39
$1.27
$1.38
98.0%
$1,030
$1,130
$1,300
$1,430
878
958
1,125
1,258
$1.17 Electric
All
$1.18
excluding
$1.16
water & sewer
$1.14
Garden apartments with swimming pool, playground
& laundry room in buildings in initial section. Units
have patio or balcony, renovated kitchens, second
section of buildings include a washer/dryer in units.
Opened 1976 & 1981. Concessions: Reduced Security
Deposit - $98
1BR/1BA
1BR/1BA/Den
2BR/1BA
2BR/2BA
97.3%
$930
$1,155
$1,290
$1,480
727
927
1,003
1,084
$1.28
$1.25
$1.29
$1.37
All
Large garden apartment community formerly known
as Town & Country. Community amenities include a
fitness center, basketball court, playground, lighted
tennis courts. Units include carpet, ceiling fans, kitchens
with gas ranges, dishwasher, disposals, balconies.
Units have been renovated to include microwaves &
washer/dryers. Laundry facilities are located in buildings
where washer/dryers are not included.
133
78
211
2BR/2BA
3BR/2BATH
98.6%
$1,438
$1,795
1,065
1,920
$1.35 Electric
$0.93
All
Garden apartment and townhome community built between
2004-2008. Units include fully applianced kitchens with
dishwasher, disposal, microwave, carpet, washer/dryer.
Community amenities include private storage area, fitness
center, tanning booth, swimming pool and clubhouse.
12
1BR/1BA
1BR/1BA/Den
2BR/1BA
2BR/2BATH F
2BR/2BATH B
98.3%
$1,075
$1,195
$1,245
$1,395
$1,495
795
1,058
1,400
1205
1,325
$1.35
$1.13
$0.89
$1.16
$1.13
All
Garden apartments and townhomes with swimming pool,
fitness center, carport facility & car wash area. Units include
eat-in kitchens with dishwasher, disposal, ice-maker, carpet
and washer/dryer. Property also offers upgraded units
with new kitchens and baths.
1BR/1BA
1BR/den
2BR/1BA
2BR/1.5 BA/den
98.0%
$996
$1,058
$1,166
$1,380
713
877
968
1,013
$1.40 Electric
All
$1.21
excluding
$1.20
water & sewer
$1.36
1,350
Orchard Park
3113 Pine Orchard
Ellicott City, MD 21043
(410) 465-0300
HAI Management
202
18
232
Plumtree Apartments
3463 Plumtree Drive
Ellicott City, MD 21043
(410) 465-8611
A & G Management
66
6
88
8
168
Totals
Heat
Type
3,233
97.4%
1BR
1BR/Den
2BR
2BR/Den
3BR
Source: Lipman, Frizzell & Mitchell LLC. survey: September 2010
Average Rents
$1,006
761
$1,133
923
$1,303
1,062
$1,406
1,099
$1,795
1,920
$1.32
$1.23
$1.23
$1.28
$0.93
Gas
Gas
Gas
All
excluding
water & sewer
Large garden apartment complex with swimming pool,
tennis court, fitness center. Units have carpet, gas
HVAC, select units have washer/dryer. The property
opened 1976 & 1986 (formerly known as Normandy
Woods). Upgraded units in 2008 with new kitchens and
baths. Concessions: 1/2 month free on select units w/13
month lease.
Garden apartments with laundry room in every bldg,
swimming pool, playground and picnic area. Units include
eat-in kitchens with dishwasher, gas range, disposal,
carpet and patio or balcony. Rental Concessions: 1 month
free rent on select 1BR units with 13 month lease.
DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2009
Market Rate Multifamily Properties
Data use subject to license.
Scale 1 : 50,000
TN
0
© DeLorme. DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2009.
www.delorme.com
MN (10.9°W)
0
¼
½
½
1" = 4,166.7 ft
¾
1
1
1½
2
mi
km
Data Zoom 12-0
included. Community amenities include two swimming pools, tennis courts,
Clubhouse, 24-hour fitness center, playground and basketball court.
Monthly rents at this community range $930-$1,480 for 727-1,084 sq.ft. of living
area. Tenants are responsible for all utilities including water and sewer. The
property is currently managed by Hirschfield and reported to be 97.3% occupied with
no rental concessions.

Kaiser Park at Ellicott City - Located at 8120 Randolph Way, this 211-unit property
consists of 133 two-bedroom apartment homes and 78 three bedroom townhome
units. Units feature fully applianced kitchens with dishwasher, garbage disposal,
microwave, refrigerator with ice-maker, wall-to-wall carpeting and full size
washer/dryer. Apartment units include balcony or patio. Community amenities
include a private storage area, fitness center, tanning booth, swimming pool and
club house.
Contract rents for the 2BR/2BA apartment units average $1,438 with 1,065 sq.ft. of
living area and $1,795 with 1,920 sq.ft. for the 3BR/2BA townhomes. Tenants are
responsible for all utilities including water and sewer. Kaiser Park is currently
managed by HAI Management and is reported to be 98.6% occupied with no rental
concessions.

Orchard Park Apartments I & II - This garden-style apartment and townhome
community is located at 3113 Pine Orchard Lane. It consists of 232 units and was
initially constructed in 1990. Apartment units range in size from 750–1,400 sq.ft.
The contract rents range $1,075-$1,245. Townhome units at this community range
1,205-1,325 sq.ft. in size with rents ranging $1,395-$1,495. In addition this
community offers upgraded units in the Orchard Park I section at rental rates ranging
$1,255-$1,455. The complex includes gas heating and water heating and tenants
are responsible for all utilities, including water and sewer charges.
Units include an eat-in kitchen with dishwasher, garbage disposal, ice maker, carpet,
washer/dryer. Upgraded units include new kitchens, bathroom vanities, State of the
Art Black GE Appliances, Brushed Nickel Finishes and color coordinated carpet. All
units include basement storage space and security alarm. Some units have
fireplaces and bay windows. Community amenities include swimming pool, fitness
center, availability of carports ($35 per month) and a car wash facility.
Orchard Park is reported to be 98.3% occupied with no rental concessions. This
property is managed by HAI Management Inc..

Plumtree Apartments - This 168 unit garden-style complex was constructed in 1973
and is located south of US Route 40 at 3463 Plumtree Drive. The 3-story buildings
have controlled access entries. The apartments feature eat-in kitchens with
dishwasher, gas range, garbage disposal, carpet, balcony or patio and central air
Page 28
conditioning. Community amenities include swimming pool, playground and picnic
area. There are laundry rooms in each building.
Contract rents range $996-$1,380 with living areas ranging 713-1,013 sq.ft.
Tenants pay all utilities, including electric heat, cooking, water heating and personal
electric. The property is currently managed by A&G Management and reported to
be 98.0% occupied. Rental concessions being offered include one month free rent
on select 1BR units, with signing of a 13 month lease.
Evaluation
LF&M finds that the PMA typical market rate inventory is characterized by a solid overall
occupancy rate of 97.4%. Average contract rents are as follows:
Rent
Sq.Ft.
Rent PSF
1BR
1BR/Den
$1,006
$1,133
761
923
$1.32
$1.23
2BR
2BR/Den
$1,303
$1,406
1,062
1,099
$1.23
$1.28
3BR
$1,795
1,920
$0.93
The market rate competition is comprised of typically older but well-managed and
updated properties which offer rents in the moderate range for Ellicott City and Howard
County.
Oella Mill Apartments
LF&M notes that Southern Management has opened a higher niche in the Ellicott City
area with its Oella Mill Apartments, the adaptive reuse of an historic mill building just
east of the Main Street historic district. The property is located at 840 Oella Avenue and
opened in 2008. It is located just outside the PMA and in Baltimore County.
The original structure was built in 1919 and the mill operation shut down in the 1970’s.
Units have luxury-level features and finishes. Community amenities include a lounge
with fully equipped kitchen, WIFI, pool table, fitness center, two-level library with
comfortable seating, concierge, structured parking, observation deck overlooking the
Patapsco River. The property has a total of 147 total units including 141 in the main mill
building and six townhomes.
Rents for standard 1BR apartments range $1,476-$2,480 for an average 915 sq.ft. and
standard 2BR rents are $1,991-$2,773 for an average 1,093 sq.ft. Management reports
occupancy at 98.6%.
Page 29
C. AFFORDABLE FAMILY APARTMENTS
LF&M has requested and received "Proximity Report" data concerning competitive
supply within the Primary Market Area from CDA. In addition, we have also reviewed
U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development and local source materials. LF&M
has exercised due caution in selecting all affordable and subsidized rental communities
which may be considered pertinent to this analysis. LF&M has identified only one
multifamily rental apartment community within the PMA that includes LIHTC apartments.
Orchard Crossing Apartments
Orchard Crossing is a 187-unit rental apartment complex located of MD Route 100.
This community opened in 1995 and was partially financed with 9% Tax Credits. Onehalf of the apartments are reserved for households at or below 60% of the median
income. The apartments in this complex include carpet, fully applianced kitchen with
dishwasher, garbage disposal and gas stove, full size washer/dryer, mini-blinds,
balcony or patio and additional storage in hallway of each apartment building. The
community amenities include outdoor swimming pool, clubhouse with exercise room,
tennis court, car wash area and tot lot.
The 1BR apartments range in size between 840 – 915 sq.ft. while the 2BR units range
in size from 1,053 – 1,245 sq.ft. Market rents for the 1BR units are $1,155 - $1,200;
2BR contract rents range from $1,255 - $1,435. Tenants are responsible for all utilities,
including gas heat and water heating and personal electric.
Tax credit apartment rents are $795 for the 1BR units and $948 for the 2BR apartments.
According to Armiger Management, all apartments are fully occupied with a waiting list
of three to six months for the market rate and affordable units. This community also
accepts section 8 vouchers.
D. AFFORDABLE SENIOR APARTMENTS
LF&M has determined there are two affordable senior rental communities in the
subject’s PMA which do not offer direct tenant rent subsidies. The properties are
Selbourne House of Dorsey Hall (72 units) and Park View at Ellicott City I & II (171
units).
The apartments are mentioned for informational purposes only since none are
considered directly competitive with a family rental community like the subject.
Page 30
DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2009
Affordable/Subsidized Multifamily Properties
Data use subject to license.
Scale 1 : 100,000
TN
0
© DeLorme. DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2009.
www.delorme.com
MN (10.9°W)
0
½
1
1
1" = 1.58 mi
1½
2
2
3
4
mi
km
Data Zoom 11-0
E. SUBSIDIZED APARTMENTS
Howard County
According to the “2009 Howard County Rental Survey”, there are 18 communities with
1,480 housing units offering units with project-based Section 8 rental subsidies. Of the
1,480 subsidized units, three communities with a combined total of 210 units are
designated for seniors. The remaining units are for general occupancy. It is important
to note that 82% of the subsidized units in Howard County are located in Columbia.
Only five communities with 266 units are subsidized in County neighborhoods outside of
Columbia.
Ellicott City PMA
Excluding the properties being redeveloped in the Hilltop Master Plan, the only
subsidized housing in the PMA is Colts Crossing (formerly Alfa Pines Condominium
Complex). This townhome development is comprised of 24 units and is located on
Corporate Court in Ellicott City. The property was recently rehabbed and includes new
plumbing, windows, heat pumps and water heaters. The complex was acquired by
Howard County Housing in 1990. The apartments are fully occupied and the waiting list
is closed until further notice.
Scattered-Site Public Housing
In addition, the Howard County Housing Commission owns and operates fifty units of
scattered-site public housing. The Housing Commission does not identify these public
housing units by address to protect the privacy of the residents. Twenty-four units are
townhouses in a single community. Two of these units have been partially modified to
meet accessibility requirements for disabled tenants. The remaining 26 homes consist
of two single housing units; one duplex and the others are townhomes. All 50 units are
rented at or below 30% of household income and include utility allowances.
F. AMENITY ANALYSIS
The subject’s units compare well to the existing typically older multifamily inventory in
the Ellicott City PMA, as summarized in Table IV-1. Though much of the PMA rental
stock is older, it has generally been well managed and updated. The newer properties
(including Orchard Crossing) are state of the art. The subject’s new construction units
will be superior to the other family properties in terms of its design, condition and
amenities:

Unit Amenities - The subject’s living areas are within the competitive range of
the market rate supply. Units include washer/dryer hook-ups in units, whereas
about half of the competition reports offering washer/dryer. All features and
finishes will be at least at a par with the newest market rate competition. Some
Page 31
of the buildings will have sheltered parking in the building—a very attractive
feature.

Community Amenities - The subject will offer typical CDA community spaces
and Tenant Service programming, which will be enhanced in the state-of-the-art
community center next door. Two buildings will be elevator-served.
The subject’s unit and community amenities are typical of those recommended by
Maryland CDA for Tax Credit properties and fully consistent with the PMA’s newest
market rate competition. The subject’s amenities are superior to the older market rate
garden apartments in the PMA inventory.
E. SUMMARY
In summary, from a market and existing competitive property perspective, LF&M finds
that the subject is well-positioned to attract households looking for quality affordable and
market rate housing. The factors which support this position include:

The market rate apartment communities in the PMA maintain high occupancies,
currently estimated at 97.4%. The quality of the multifamily stock is good but
typically older. Properties have generally been well managed. Market rents average
$1,006 for a standard 1BR apartment, $1,303 for a standard 2BR apartment and
$1,795 for a 3BR apartment.

The subject’s LIHTC rents are a significant savings in comparison to the market,
while the unrestricted rents are within the market range—especially considering the
positive reception given the Oella Mill Apartments at the luxury end of the market.

The supply of subsidized and affordable family apartments in the PMA is small,
currently estimated at 211 units. There are two senior affordable properties in the
area, offering 243 age-restricted units. All have full occupancy with waiting lists.

The subject’s units and amenities are very competitive with the newest PMA market
rate properties and superior to the area’s older (though typically updated) properties.
In particular, the new 40,000 sq.ft. community center will be a great benefit.
LF&M concludes, therefore, that the Ellicott City PMA’s rental market is characterized
by high occupancies for all properties and waiting lists for the affordable/subsidized
properties. Redevelopment of the subject site as a mixed income community is
important in serving the needs of a growing Howard County population.
Page 32
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
MARKET RATE MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
CHARLESTON MANOR
CHATHAM GARDENS
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
MARKET RATE MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
HOWARD CROSSING
KAISER PARK
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
MARKET RATE MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
ORCHARD PARK
PLUMTREE
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
MARKET RATE MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
OELLA MILL
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
ORCHARD CROSSING
COLTS CROSSING
HILLTOP FAMILY APARTMENTS
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES
ELLICOTT TERRACE
V. DEMAND ANALYSIS
LF&M’s task is to estimate the number of income-qualified households who are likely to
demand and afford a rental apartment at the subject property.
A. HILLTOP HOUSEHOLDS
LF&M has reviewed a recent rent roll for Hilltop. We find that household incomes are
indeed very low, with a median income for the property of approximately $16,270.
Incomes were reported for 79 resident households and they are in the following ranges:
Hilltop Household Incomes
Households
24
12
13
8
6
6
4
6
Less than $10,000
$10,000 - $14,999
$15,000 - $19,999
$20,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $29,999
$30,000 - $34,999
$35.000 - $39,999
$40,000 or More
Household income data was not available to us for Ellicott Terrace, but we assume
those households have been income-qualified by Howard County Housing and are in
reasonably the same income ranges. It appears that the household incomes of the vast
majority of current residents fall well under the maximum incomes allowed under LIHTC
guidelines.
B. PMA HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
LF&M summarizes the detailed ESRI estimates of household incomes by age of
householder for the Ellicott City PMA and Howard County in Tables V-1 and V-2
following.
The median household income in 2010 for all households residing in the PMA is
estimated at $105,500. Only 1,710 households (7.7%) are estimated to have incomes
less than $25,000; another 2,946 households (13.4%) have incomes of $25,000$50,000; 17,380 households (78.9%) have incomes exceeding $50,000. Overall, PMA
household incomes are very high.
Page 33
Table V-1
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Householder Age by Income
PMA
2000, 2010, 2015
2000:
Under $10,000
$10,000 - $14,999
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or more
Total
Median HH Income
2010
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$499,999
$500,000 or more
Total
Median HH Income
2015
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 - $249,999
$250,000 - $499,999
$500,000 or more
Total
Median HH Income
<25
25-34
78
10
62
118
89
76
5
22
0
0
68
61
188
259
522
568
426
442
86
75
460
$31,930
<25
104
70
112
132
118
17
50
24
24
6
2
659
$38,730
<25
88
64
85
117
135
11
75
41
29
11
2
Age of Householder:
35-44
45-54
55-64
39
66
131
270
330
745
917
1,458
737
400
49
20
75
156
236
365
464
583
272
247
2,695
$57,868
5,229
5,093
$87,423 $101,128
2,467
$91,184
25-34
Age of Householder:
35-44
45-54
55-64
126
140
134
500
536
320
663
183
120
99
38
128
14
250
248
460
954
970
1,392
526
287
98
124
132
254
504
434
1,307
730
221
168
41
93
109
226
257
614
655
1,824
1,350
435
337
74
68
70
151
260
442
491
1,475
838
459
296
75
2,859
4,013
5,974
4,625
$74,568 $111,742 $122,039 $121,699
25-34
106
121
104
414
622
273
1,089
349
175
157
41
Age of Householder:
35-44
45-54
55-64
60
83
73
152
348
221
1,456
984
270
267
42
59
77
153
150
447
364
1,792
1,511
437
418
60
34
44
76
138
337
259
1,772
1,183
587
477
85
658
3,451
3,956
5,468
4,992
$45,854 $102,155 $129,749 $137,417 $142,863
65-74
74
58
198
205
306
456
242
164
33
15
75+
156
104
187
178
193
181
125
66
23
37
Total
592
333
1,091
1,434
2,136
3,345
3,149
4,127
1,677
1,061
Percent
3.1%
1.8%
5.8%
7.6%
11.3%
17.7%
16.6%
21.8%
8.9%
5.6%
1,751
1,250
$51,392 $35,000
18,945 100.0%
$78,245
65-74
Total
113
135
166
248
542
323
335
103
58
34
17
75+
286
174
171
203
287
220
227
114
82
49
19
2,074
1,832
$64,746 $55,398
65-74
102
107
126
204
652
336
664
246
173
123
43
75+
235
126
117
153
287
192
337
186
133
88
20
2,776
1,874
$88,036 $76,957
Source: ESRI estimates and forecasts, 2010; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC.
888
822
1,092
1,854
3,043
2,460
5,881
3,342
1,399
989
266
Percent
4.0%
3.7%
5.0%
8.4%
13.8%
11.2%
26.7%
15.2%
6.3%
4.5%
1.2%
22,036 100.0%
$105,500
Total
684
622
734
1,328
2,828
1,656
7,185
4,500
1,804
1,541
293
Percent
3.0%
2.7%
3.2%
5.7%
12.2%
7.1%
31.0%
19.4%
7.8%
6.6%
1.3%
23,175 100.0%
$125,550
Table V-2
HILLTOP APARTMENTS
Householder Age by Income
Howard County
2000, 2010, 2015
2000:
Under $10,000
$10,000 - $14,999
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or more
Total
Median HH Income
2010
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$499,999
$500,000 or more
Total
Median HH Income
2015
Under $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 - $249,999
$250,000 - $499,999
$500,000 or more
Total
Median HH Income
<25
271
60
289
426
522
560
230
101
7
2
25-34
Age of Householder:
35-44
45-54
55-64
373
287
907
1,433
2,834
4,885
3,313
2,339
540
331
606
158
872
1,628
2,817
5,888
4,956
5,827
2056
1361
253
250
495
1,138
1,793
3,839
4,131
5,699
2439
1717
307
138
618
655
1,149
2,253
2,094
2,860
1202
899
2,468 17,242
$39,657 $62,726
26,169
$79,227
21,754
$92,212
12,175
$84,605
<25
390
197
391
626
682
403
263
148
120
22
6
25-34
481
479
744
2,006
3,342
2,497
3,330
868
427
317
86
Age of Householder:
35-44
45-54
55-64
583
455
823
1,797
3,714
3,400
7,482
3,036
1,194
1,001
179
395
357
783
1,398
3,331
3,941
8,570
4,503
1,788
1,764
382
429
450
474
1,102
2,387
2,394
6,006
3,124
1,367
1,160
242
3,248 14,577
23,664
27,212
19,135
$50,465 $76,728 $104,088 $113,775 $113,410
<25
327
148
280
505
739
336
392
225
148
37
6
25-34
377
378
541
1,599
3,708
2,040
5,375
1,573
617
566
104
Age of Householder:
35-44
45-54
55-64
338
287
445
1,016
2,707
1,795
8,117
3,812
1,341
1,348
178
242
231
487
849
2,837
2,373
9,728
5,547
1,978
2,338
367
244
280
264
624
2,010
1,516
7,493
4,319
1,765
1,867
280
65-74
388
263
713
620
1,051
1,333
771
577
227
138
75+
604
442
700
504
590
639
326
258
53
97
Total
2,802
1,598
4,594
6,404
10,756
19,397
15,821
17,661
6,524
4,545
Percent
3.1%
1.8%
5.1%
7.1%
11.9%
21.5%
17.6%
19.6%
7.2%
5.0%
6,081
4,213
$50,075 $32,368
90,102 100.0%
$74,181
65-74
Total
643
588
557
1,211
1,806
1,288
1,504
836
485
307
82
75+
1,014
617
474
648
957
597
753
308
299
126
55
9,307
5,848
$72,075 $53,214
65-74
542
501
439
1,050
2,216
1,301
2,674
1,663
920
710
149
75+
874
484
358
525
1,113
552
1,260
595
474
237
71
3,143 16,878
21,384
26,977
20,662
12,165
6,543
$57,926 $96,869 $118,011 $126,833 $130,098 $100,388 $72,450
Source: ESRI estimates and forecasts, 2010; compiled by Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell LLC.
3,935
3,143
4,246
8,788
16,219
14,520
27,908
12,823
5,680
4,697
1,032
Percent
3.8%
3.1%
4.1%
8.5%
15.7%
14.1%
27.1%
12.5%
5.5%
4.6%
1.0%
102,991 100.0%
$100,769
Total
2,944
2,309
2,814
6,168
15,330
9,913
35,039
17,734
7,243
7,103
1,155
Percent
2.7%
2.1%
2.6%
5.7%
14.2%
9.2%
32.5%
16.5%
6.7%
6.6%
1.1%
107,752 100.0%
$118,087
C. INCOME WINDOW
LIHTC Income Window
Households must be found within an annual income window determined by the
maximum incomes allowable for qualification purposes by Maryland’s Community
Development Administration (CDA) and the minimum income required to afford the
rents at the CDA guideline's 30% gross rent-to-income ratio.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) calculates the median
family income for a household of four persons in the Baltimore Metropolitan Area
(including Howard County) to be $82,200 in 2010.
Maximum Household Incomes
Using HUD guidelines, LF&M calculates Tax Credit maximum income limits for the
subject at 30% and 60% AMI by household size as follows:
Maximum Household Incomes
2010 Limits
Household Size
1 Person
2 Persons
3 Persons
4 Persons
5 Persons
30% AMI
$17,280
$19,740
$22,200
$24,660
$26,640
60% AMI
$34,500
$39,420
$44,340
$49,260
$53,220
IRS Section 42(g)(2)(C)(ii) guidelines state the maximum income limitation is to be
based on occupancy, which is established at 1.5 persons per bedroom. The subject’s
maximum incomes are, therefore, set for households ranging in size to 4.5 persons.
(LF&M notes that this is a very conservative measure, since management typically
allows occupancy of two persons per bedroom.) The subject's maximum allowable
incomes range from $17,280 for a one person household at 30% AMI up to $51,240 for
a 4.5 person household at 60% AMI.
For these calculations, therefore, the maximum income allowed at the subject is stated
at $51,240 for a 4.5 person household at 60% AMI
Minimum Income
LF&M calculates the minimum household income level needed to afford the subject’s
LIHTC apartments based on a qualification ratio of 30% of gross rent. Using the
subject’s 30% AMI gross rents of $443 (1BR), $532 (2BR) and $615 (3BR) as our
standard, we have calculated that the minimum annual income required to afford those
rent payments as $17,720, $21,280 and $24,600 respectively. The subject units will not
have project-based Section 8 subsidies.
Page 34
Eligible Income Window
At CDA's qualification ratio for gross rents of up to 30% of household income for
housing, we estimate the range of incomes required to meet the subject’s proposed
gross rents to be:
30% Gross Qualification: $17,720 - $51,240
Market Rate Qualification
Management companies typically qualify prospects for market rate apartments at a 30%
ratio of contract rent (not including utilities) to gross income. The subject’s apartments
with no income restrictions range from $1,250 (1BR) to $1,975 (3BR), requiring a
minimum household income of $50,000 up to $79,000.
So as not to overlap with the subject’s affordable income window, LF&M estimates the
number of PMA households with incomes above $51,240 in 2010.
D. TARGET HOUSEHOLDS
LIHTC Households
Using the Table V-1 estimates, LF&M has estimated the number of income-qualified
households in the Ellicott City PMA in 2010. We estimate that there are currently 3,695
PMA households who have incomes ranging from $17,720 to $51,240 annually. This
represents about one sixth (16.8%) of all households in the PMA.
Using Census data in Table III-9, LF&M estimates the proportion of renters among the
target group at 52.5% in the PMA. We note that this percentage is high compared to
what is found in the PMA overall (with a renter share of 25.1%) due to the high cost of
homeownership in Ellicott City—disqualifying many households from buying a home.
The reality is that low- to moderate-income households (and even many middle income
households) in the PMA and Howard County lack the financial ability to afford
homeownership and are renters by necessity rather than by choice.
LF&M, therefore, estimates the total number of income-qualified renter households
within the PMA in 2010 as follows:
Income Qualified Households
Times: Renter Share
Target Market
Page 35
3,695
52.5%
1,940
Analysis by Income Band
Understanding that our calculations are conservative since so many of PMA renter
households spend more than 30% of their incomes on rent, the table below illustrates
the distribution of these income-qualified households by income band:
Households by Income Band
Income Band
30%
60%
Total
Qualifying Income
$17,720-$34,559
$34,560-$51,240
Households
1,642
2,017
3,659
Renter Households
862
1,078
1,940
There is a certain amount of overlap among the income bands depending on household
size, but LF&M finds the income ranges to be useful in offering general guidance on the
distribution of senior incomes in the PMA.
Market Rate Households
Again referring to Table V-1, we find that there are 17,229 households in that range.
The homeownership rate in this group, however, is very high (87.5%). We calculate the
number of income-qualified renter households in the $51,240+ income range in 2010 as
follows:
Income Qualified Households
Times: Renter Share
Target Market
17,229
12.5%
2,154
The implications of these statistics, the subject project’s capture and market penetration
rates, are presented in Section VI, Supply and Demand Analysis.
E. FURTHER QUANTIFICATION OF DEMAND
As an alternate perspective, we can further quantify the subject project’s potential
demand using the U.S. Census Bureau's American Housing Survey (AHS) research
product.
AHS data is used to estimate the proportion of households who are most likely to move
in the course of a year from their current dwelling to rental quarters. Based on these
statistics, produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, LF&M estimates that
approximately 36.2% of all rental units turn over annually. Using that statistic, we would
estimate that up to 1,170 renter households could be expected to move annually within
the PMA—most of them income-qualified to live at the subject property. This gauge of
natural turnover within the PMA suggests that demand for family apartments will remain
strong.
Page 36
F. SUMMARY
In summary, LF&M finds that there is a substantial potential demand pool of low- and
moderate-income households within the defined Ellicott City PMA who are incomequalified to rent the subject’s affordable LIHTC apartments. In 2010, the pool of
income-qualified renter households from the PMA is estimated at 1,940 according to
CDA’s guidelines.
In addition, we find that the pool of renters who are income-qualified to rent the subject’s
market rate apartments is a substantial 2,154 households in 2010.
Neither number takes into consideration the tremendous growth which is taking place in
Ellicott City and Howard County.
Page 37
VI. SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS
LF&M has estimated the project’s potential capture and penetration rates, building upon
the assumptions presented in the previous sections.
A. CAPTURE ANALYSIS
LF&M defines "capture rate" as the share of the eligible prospect pool which a property
must attain in order to fully lease up. The following calculations ignore the reality that
the subject will certainly be able to retain most if not all of its current tenants. The
following calculations represent, therefore, the most conservative and “worst case”
scenario for the subject’s lease-up.
LIHTC Apartments
LF&M conservatively assumes that all 92 LIHTC units will be filled by income-eligible
family renter households from within the PMA. Comparing that number to the total 2010
eligible target household pool, LF&M calculates the subject's capture rate as follows:

Project Capture - In 2010, the pool of income-qualified prospects consists of 1,940
renter households now living within the PMA. The subject would need to capture
4.7% of these households (92 units /1,940 = 4.7%).

Project Capture by Income - LF&M has further estimated the subject’s capture rate
by Tax Credit income band in accordance with the number of units available to each
income band. The table below stratifies the subject’s capture rate by income level:
Capture Rate by Income Band
Income Band
30%
60%
Total
No. of Units
18
74
92
Renter Hhlds
862
1,078
1,940
Capture Rate
2.1%
6.9%
4.7%
Market Rate Apartments
The subject’s 114 market rate apartments need capture only 5.3% of the incomequalified renter pool available in 2010. (114 units / 2,154 = 5.3%)
Evaluation
LF&M’s analysis indicates that the Hilltop capture rates in 2010 for both affordable and
market rate units are very low and eminently achievable, even when population and
Page 38
household growth in the dynamic Ellicott City and Howard County markets are not
considered.
B. PENETRATION RATE
LF&M defines "penetration rate" as the share of the remaining eligible prospect pool-who are not already living in competitive rental quarters--which a property must attain in
order to fully lease up.
The first step in calculating the market penetration for the Tax Credit units involves
estimating the number of income-eligible PMA renter households now residing in
competitive family rental projects.
Based on our analysis of the competitive PMA housing supply in Section IV above,
LF&M estimates that there may be 211 households in our target group residing in other
PMA affordable and subsidized apartment properties. To be conservative, we have not
deducted any vacancy factor.
LF&M, therefore, calculates the market penetration rate of the subject’s subsidized units
at 6.1% as follows:
= 5.3%
92 LIHTC units to be filled
(1,940 income-qualified renters – 211 living in competition)
The subject’s penetration rate is low and indicative of the fact that the supply of
affordable rental housing in the Ellicott City PMA and Howard County is very limited.
C. LEASE-UP RISK
From a market perspective, LF&M finds that the new construction family apartments will
be leased up as units are delivered. The PMA demonstrates a history of stable, high
occupancies. Current Hilltop and Ellicott Terrace residents will be moved into the new
apartments as construction work progresses and displacement will be zero. We
assume that they will be bridged into the new units with Housing Choice Vouchers.
The Developer assumes an ongoing vacancy allowance of 7.0%. LF&M judges that this
is reasonable and conservative given the Ellicott City PMA’s historical performance.
The subject should be able to sustain a stabilized occupancy rate of at least 93% due to
the fact that the supply of affordable and market rate housing in the PMA is inadequate
in the face of continuing growth of Howard County.
We judge that the subject property will be perceived as an excellent value by renters
within the Ellicott City PMA and Howard County.
Page 39
APPENDIX A
JOSEPH M. CRONYN
Resume
Cronyn has more than three decades of professional experience in real estate research, sales
and marketing, development, public policy, financing and appraisal. His experience includes
market and financial feasibility analyses of major real estate projects; land acquisition and
marketing for commercial and residential development; planning for mixed use development,
including historic preservation concerns; tax-motivated and conventional financing for single
family and multifamily residential projects; and advising public, nonprofit and private clients
concerning economic and community development strategies.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell, LLC, Columbia, MD
(2003 - present), Principal
(1997 - 2003), Senior Associate
Legg Mason Realty Group, Inc., Baltimore, MD (1989-1997), Vice President
Financial Associates of Maryland, Baltimore, MD (1987-1989), Vice President
Baltimore Federal Financial, F.S.A., Baltimore, MD (1982-1987), Sr. Vice President
Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation, Washington, DC (1978-1982), Asst. Director
Baltimore Federal Savings & Loan, Baltimore, MD (1976-1978), Mortgage Underwriter
EDUCATION
Master of Business Administration, Loyola College Maryland, Executive Program, 1986
Bachelor's Degree, English & Philosophy, Boston College, 1969
AFFILIATIONS
Neighborhood Housing Services of Baltimore, Chairman of the Board emeritus
Citizens Planning and Housing Association, Member
National Trust for Historic Preservation, Member
Maryland Economic Development Association (MEDA), Member
Lambda Alpha International Land Economics Society, Baltimore Chapter, Board of Directors
PROFESSIONAL LICENSES
State of Maryland Real Estate Agent's License
QUALIFIED AS EXPERT WITNESS
Before Maryland public administrative bodies, zoning hearing examiners and/or boards of
appeals: Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Charles County, Frederick
County, Harford County, Howard County, Montgomery County, Prince George's County
Page 40