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№ 6/2014 (62), NOVEMBER/DECEMBER
€ 25/99 PLN (incl. 5% VAT)
Report
Waiting for SECA
consequences
Transport & environment
A threat that transcends borders
Focus
The future of logistics
Baltic Transport Journal
is an official media partner of:
Journal
ISSN 1733-6732
Baltic Transport
bimonthly-daily companion
3
15
21
3 Editorial
6 BTJ Calendar of events
8 Market SMS Extended
10 What’s new?
12 BTJ Maps News
14 On the roads: Magistra vitae
by Marek Błuś
54 Horoscope: The future is written
– The 2015 transport sector’s affairs
uncovered by Przemysław Myszka
56 Collector’s corner
57 Transport miscellany
58 Who’s who
15The global shipping market’s
crescendo – The world fleet and
containerized trade
by Dr. Vincent F. Valentine, Division on
Technology and Logistics, UNCTAD
16Don’t water it down – Ship-owners’
views on the EU ports policy
by Lieselot Marinus, ECSA’s Director of
International Relations, Security, Ports
and Logistics
18 Eco dumping – Sustainable
sediment management in the
south-eastern Baltic Sea
by Vassilen Iotzov, based on
contributions from Grażyna Sapota,
Sergej Suzdalev, Grażyna Dembska,
Monika Michalek and Nerijus
Blazauskas
20Holding the pass – Hamburg –
linking the Baltic to the world
by Sabine Zilski and Marina Rimpo
Waiting for SECA consequences
21Big bad SECA? – On what the
Sulphur Directive has already
brought by Przemysław Myszka
and Lena Lorenc
26The time to act is now
– ECA emission regulations
by Henning Mohn, Principal Advisor,
DNV GL Maritime Advisory, Høvik,
Norway
28The abatement ambiguity
– The risks connected with the
upcoming fuel change
by Eugen Spangenberg, Dipl. Ing. Nav.
Arch., University of Gdańsk, Faculty of
Economics
Maritime & Economy
Regular columns
38
Newsletters
Baltic Ports Organization
38A port of national interest
– The Port of Sundsvall joins BPO
39Striving for full integration –
Baltic comprehensive ports
by Grzegorz Barański
LNG
40Job well done – and more to come!
42Looking back and ahead –
Project partners’ final summaries
4 | Baltic Transport Journal | 6/2014
Report
Contents
31
45
50
Transport & environment
31A threat that transcends borders
by Lena Lorenc
34There’s enough capacity for
excellence – Clean air in ports – less
pollution, more gain
by Malte Siegert, Head of Environmental
Policy at NABU Hamburg
36The upcoming ReVolt – Developing
an unmanned, battery-powered and
zero-emission short-sea ship
by Hans Anton Tvete, DNV GL’s Senior
Researcher Maritime Transport
The future of logistics
45He who controls the past…
– Logistics in 2050
by Przemysław Myszka
48Rearranging mobility
– A more holistic approach to
sustainable transport
by Prof. Dr. Hartmut Keller, Former
Head of Traffic Engineering and
Transport Planning Unit at Munich
University of Technology and DI Dr.
Reinhard Pfliegl, CEO of A3PS
50Linking stock, joining forces
– 1,500 m long mega-trains in
Europe
by Franco Castagnetti, NewOpera
Aisbl President and MARATHON
Project Leader
52Is LNG here to stay? – Liquefied
Natural Gas as a maritime and heavy
duty vehicles’ fuel
by Marta Reszko
BTJ Special
Focus
Logistics & Overland
In this issue ”According to the European Commission, every year
more than 400,000 EU citizens die prematurely due to air pollution.”
Malte Siegert, Head of Environmental Policy at NABU Hamburg
Read more in the article: There’s enough capacity for excellence, pgs. 34-35
6/2014 | Baltic Transport Journal | 5
BTJ 6/2014 (Nov.-Dec. edition)
Report: Waiting for SECA consequences | Focus: The future of logistics | Special: Transport & environment
Issues distributed at:
7th Annual Wind Energy Operations & Maintenance Forum Europe, 20-21 January 2015, DE/Hamburg,
www.windenergyupdate.com/operations-maintenance
With over 200 executive attendees, 20+ speakers and two in-depth workshops, the 2015 Forum is a must-attend event for those in the rapidly
evolving area of the wind energy operations & maintenance industry. Thanks to the Forum’s rich agenda, each participant will get to know
ways to optimise O&M strategies for maximised yield and cost reduction across both on- or offshore wind businesses.
3rd Annual Oil & Gas HR Forum, 4-6 February 2015, AT/Vienna, www.human-resources.flemingeurope.com/hr-oil-gas-forum
Key discussion topics of the 2015 edition of the Oil & Gas HR Forum will include, among others, tackling the big crew change, mastering global
workforce mobility, redefining key components of HR strategy as well as leveraging the power of collaboration. The Forum will also focus on
HR analytics, workforce planning and overcoming the challenges of virtual working.
LogiMAT 2015, 10-12 February 2015, DE/Stuttgart, www.logimat-messe.de/english
LogiMAT 2015, the 13th International Trade Fair for Distribution, Materials Handling and Information Flow, will set new standards as the biggest
annual intralogistics exhibition in Europe. LogiMAT’s focus will be on innovative products as well as solutions and systems for procurement,
warehouse, production and distribution logistics.
RORO Shipping Conference 2015, 17-18 February 2015, SE/Gothenburg,
www.informamaritimeevents.com/event/RORO-Shipping-Conference
The 2015 edition of the ro-ro focused conference will be devoted to such issues as reviewing SECA compliance in practice and its operational impact on the future ro-ro trade map, exploring emissions enforcement, ro-ro and intermodality, 2015 challenges from ports’ perspective,
future energy efficiency concepts, and much more.
BTJ 1/2015 (Jan.-Feb. edition)
Report: Highlights 2014 | Focus: Russia-West conflict | Special: Technology innovation
Issues distributed at:
European Shipping Week, 2-6 March 2015, BE/Brussels, www.europeanshippingweek.com
Welcome to the very first edition of the European Shipping Week which is intended to be a platform where policy-makers from the main EU
institutions will meet and engage with European ship-owners and other shipping sector stakeholders.
Green Ship Technology Conference 2015, 10-13 March 2015, DK/Copenhagen,
www.informamaritimeevents.com/event/greenshiptechnology
The 12th edition of the annual conference will once again gather 100+ expert speakers and 350+ senior shipping executives to discuss the
most pressing issues, such e.g. the future of emission controls for shipping. The event will feature numerous interactive panel debates, breakout sessions and technical streams, coupled with breakfast briefings, roundtable groups and practical workshops.
LNG Congress Russia 2015, 12-13 March 2015, RU/Moscow, www.lngrussiacongress.com
The LNG Congress Russia 2015 is the only event where technical challenges and commercial risks associated with LNG growth will be discussed on a strategic level. The Congress will attract 250+ senior decision makers across the LNG market from Russia, CIS and the Baltics, giving
a unique opportunity to meet company leaders face-to-face as well as to hear from more than 50 LNG expert speakers.
Cruise Shipping Miami, 16-19 March 2015, US/Miami, www.cruiseshippingevents.com/miami
The annual Cruise Shipping Miami has established itself as the epicentre of the global cruise industry and the only event guaranteed to bring together
shipping lines, suppliers, travel agents and partners. With nearly 900 exhibitors and over 11,000 attendees from 125 countries, the conference content
featuring the industry’s most knowledgeable speakers as well as plenary sessions led by the heads of the largest cruise corporations,.
Transport Week 2015, 17-19 March 2015, PL/Gdańsk, www.transportweek.eu
The 5th edition of the Transport Week international conference will be held this time in the halls of the Amber Expo in Gdańsk. Gathering once
more a rich variety of maritime, intermodal, LNG and EU transport policy representatives; the three-day event will be packed with in-depth
presentations, engaging panel discussions and focus seminars.
TransBaltic, 18-20 March 2015, RU/St. Petersburg, www.transbaltic.primexpo.ru/en
The TransBaltic exhibition is a brand-new venture focused on showcasing the latest developments within transport, logistics and warehousing.
The main aim of the new industry platform is to present services & products directly to target audiences seeking high-quality freight forwarding services and modern warehouse solutions. In addition, the Transport and Logistics Congress will take place during the exhibition.
Offshore Wind Structures, 14-15 April 2015, UK/London, www.windenergyupdate.com/offshore-wind-structures
At the Offshore Wind Structures conference industry leaders will be uniting to uncover next-gen turbine and foundation technologies, improve
component interaction, study the assessment & selection process of choosing the right foundations, dig into the impact & importance of the
subsea and seabed topic as well as take a closer look at offshore financing, all of this to achieve an optimised design of offshore wind structures.
TransRussia 2015, 21-24 April 2015, RU/Moscow, www.transrussia.ru/en-GB
TransRussia’s 20th anniversary will once more attract professionals from Russia, the Baltic and CIS States as well as anyone interested in transport
& logistics across these countries. The exhibition part will demonstrate a full range of industry solutions – from transport and forwarding services to software and equipment solutions easing cargo handlings.
BTJ 2/2015 (Mar.-Apr. edition)
Report: Baltic ro-ro & ferry market | Focus: TEN-T policy | Special: Break-bulk & project cargo
Issues distributed at:
Transport Logistic, 5-8 May 2015, DE/Munich, www.transportlogistic.de/en
The Transport Logistic trade fair has established itself as a 100% transport & logistics showcase, presenting in one place the entire value chain
as well as major international market players. The previous 2013 edition of Transport Logistic attracted a record number of over 2,000 exhibitors
from 63 countries and more than 52,000 trade visitors from 110 countries.
Breakbulk Europe 2015, 18-21 May 2015, BE/Antwerp, www.breakbulk.com/breakbulk-global-events/breakbulk-europe-2015
Breakbulk Europe is the largest exhibition & educational forum in the world addressing the needs of traditional breakbulk and project cargo
logistics professionals. Visit the Breakbulk Europe Exhibition to network with 300+ exhibitors and sponsors, ranging from ocean carriers, freight
forwarders and ports & terminals representatives, to logistics providers, export packers and equipment manufacturers.
IAPH 29th World Ports Conference, 1-5 June 2015, DE/Hamburg, www.iaph2015.org
The five-day event will be split into numerous topical conferences, tackling such issues as global economy development with special emphasis
on the law-global trade relation, bigger vessels-bigger challenges, logistics and energy, cruise shipping, clean air in ports, and much more.
Moreover, the World Ports Conference will also host the Women’s Forum.
Nor-Shipping 2015, 2-5 June 2015, NO/Oslo, www.messe.no/en/nor-shipping
Nor-Shipping's 50th anniversary exhibition will feature six halls, delivering altogether 22,500 m2 of space to showcase the best and latest in maritime technology, services and solutions across easy-to-navigate national pavilions and themed industry segments. Nor-Shipping’s conference
will focus on the issue of next-gen. shipping as well as take a closer look at the importance of the offshore shipping industry.
6 | Baltic Transport Journal | 6/2014
BTJ Calendar of events
TOC 2015, 9-11 June 2015, NL/Rotterdam, www.tocevents-europe.com/csc-conference
The TOC Container Supply Chain transport and trade forum will provide shippers and their transportation providers with access to the
latest insights and analyses driving international trade, transport and logistics. The 40th edition of TOC will focus on ports as critical links
within the container supply chain.
SIL2015, 9-11 June 2015, ES/Barcelona, www.silbcn.com/en
For the 17th time the international logistics and material handling exhibition will gather in one place top representatives of the transport &
logistics, infrastructure, real estate, telematics, e-business, telecommunications, IT systems, warehousing, equipment and material handling
industries to present and discuss the latest from their business fields. SIL2015 will also host the 13th Mediterranean Logistics and Transport
Forum and the 4th Latin American Logistics and Transport Summit.
BTJ 3/2015 (May-Jun. edition)
Report: Baltic port market | Focus: European shipyards | Special: The human factor
Issues distributed at:
BPO Annual Conference 2015, 3-4 September 2015, LV/Riga, www.bpoports.com
The Baltic Ports Organization invites all executives interested in improving the competitiveness of maritime transport in the Baltic region,
increasing the efficiency of ports & terminals, developing infrastructure and value-added services, as well as extending ashore and hinterland
connections to its annual conference, this year held in the capital of Latvia.
BALTEXPO 2015, 7-9 September 2015, PL/Gdańsk, www.baltexpo.ztw.pl/en
During the 18th international conference and exhibition BALTEXPO 2015 companies from the shipbuilding, offshore, port, transport & logistics,
shipping, safety & security as well as environment protection industries will showcase their service and product portfolios.
Seatrade Europe Cruise & River Convention, 9-11 September 2015, DE/Hamburg, www.seatrade-europe.com
The cruise industry in Europe has taken its place in the mainstream of the leisure sector. During 2015 Seatrade’s two and a half days of highlevel conference, peers and experts will debate the latest opportunities and challenges, covering a broad spectrum of topics.
BTJ 4/2015 (July-Aug. edition Report: Baltic container market | Focus: Container handling equipment | Special: Transport & environment
Issues distributed at:
TRAKO, 22-25 September 2015, PL/ Gdańsk, www.trakotargi.amberexpo.pl
The 11th edition of the international railway trade fair TRAKO will be the industry’s largest meeting in Poland and one of the biggest in Central
and Eastern Europe. At TRAKO 2015 the leading rail businesses will present their latest developments – from brand-new rolling stocks and
equipment, via software and rail traffic management systems, to new transport & logistics solutions.
InnoRail, 14-16 October 2015, HU/Budapest, www.innorail.hu/en/innorail-2015-en
The 2nd edition of the international conference on railway infrastructure and innovation will focus on five thematic areas – infrastructure
construction and management; telecommunication, signalling and traffic management; energy supply, catenaries and lighting technology;
rolling stock development, production, operation and maintenance; as well as rail bridges and structures.
9th GreenPort Congress & GreenPort Cruise, 14-17 October 2015, ES/Barcelona, www.greenport.com
The 2015 edition of the GreenPort Congress will provide key port community decision makers with a meeting place to learn about and discuss
the latest in sustainable development and environmental practice. The Congress will also highlight the newest innovations and best practices
which will allow port users to further advance their eco-friendliness.
BTJ 5/2015 (Sep.-Oct. edition)
Report: Baltic bulk market | Focus: European rail & road freight | Special: Future alternatives for logistics
Issues distributed at:
Europort, 3-6 November 2015, NL/Rotterdam, www.europort.nl
The event will be providing 30,000 professional visitors and 1,100 exhibiting companies with a meeting place to see and to showcase the newest maritime & shipbuilding technologies, with a strong focus on special purpose ships, incl. offshore, dredging, construction, naval, inland,
fishery as well as workboats and super yachts.
Trans Poland, 4-6 November 2015, PL/Warsaw, www.trans-poland.pl/main
The 3rd edition of the Trans Poland trade fair will be devoted to showcasing the latest achievements in transport and infrastructure technologies, helping companies from the sea, road, air, intermodal, freight forwarding and storing sectors to boost their performance. The international
exhibition & conference will also present up-to-date transport & logistics equipment as well as ICT, monitoring and navigational solutions.
6/2014 | Baltic Transport Journal | 7
On the roads
Magistra vitae
by Marek Błuś
Photo: Visit Finland
Modern knowledge-based societies have the ability
to scrutinize themselves historically but are
far away from being guided by fruits of such analyses.
S
omebody recently stated that the implementation of the Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) is unprecedented in the
history of shipping. The situation is unique
because, the author explains, freight rates will turn
into a loose cannon across all trades, cargo flows
will jump between different modes overnight
with a considerable portion of freight landing on
roads, whilst virtually all parties (be them ships,
their owners, clients of theirs or even average Joes)
will be deeply affected as additional duties and
expenses will be shuffled all over the place. Yet in
my opinion such a statement is false, because all
the aforementioned events, taken together, have
happened earlier, namely during the two World
Wars. Freight rates rose due to rocketing insurance
costs, domestic cargo moved onto railways and
pipelines to avoid high sea war risk, companies
acquired new equipment and skills to avoid losses,
not to mention the shipping business changing
its relations with the surrounding world because
of regulations set by admirals.
“History is life’s teacher,” wrote Cicero and his
modern successors, like Jared Diamond, have developed this ancient dictum into a more detailed
idea: “The past offers us a rich database from
which we can learn, in order to keep on succeeding.” But, it seems that in the case of SECA, it’s fairly hard to find a diligent student or a data mining
researcher keen enough to surface relevant facts
14 | Baltic Transport Journal | 6/2014
from the past (or as Hegel would put it: “History
teaches us that people have never learned anything from history.”). Naturally, history also offers
peaceful stories and we can extract resources
without an admixture of gunpowder. These are,
to name a few, the sail-to-steam change, going
from using oil instead of coal or replacing steam
with combustion engines.
But particulars show that today’s switch
from Heavy Fuel Oil to light distillates or to Liquefied Natural Gas is superficial. Firstly, historical
changes lasted much more than one day, for instance it took over 130 years to move from sails
to steam (and 180 if we also take into account
primitive ships), while boilers on seagoing vessels were fed with coal from 1818 till the late
1970s. Secondly, all former changes were made
voluntarily by ship-owners in order to increase
profits. The current switch is compulsory and for
non-pecuniary reasons.
Sadly, but to my mind if one forces a change in
business behaviour, implemented in a short time
with a strong sense of Russian roulette, it resembles more regulatory terrorism than a new form of
tax declaration – even the language of justification
is military-bent. The industry hears it all the time:
the implementation of SECA is a fight against dangers created by humanity against humanity.
If we really are on the front line, we
have to learn from experiences collected by
departments directing transport efforts (and
more broadly – economies) during the 20th
century’s largest hostilities. They found three
ways of managing blood cell vessels in times
of great danger, namely organisation, organisation and organisation again. Obviously, the
market was affected during the wars but not
suspended, as e.g. charter-party and the bill
of loading still played the same role in shipping. Organisation means, among others, establishing bunkering facilities which were not
feasible for private investors, monitoring extra
costs (like insurance), ordering and financing
R&D activities, buying licenses for common usage, spreading best practices, collecting and
disseminating information not known or not
needed before. In other words, administration
has built a network around the shipping sector
since wars ask not only for more guns, they call
also for a special material-social capital coupling. And they receive it.
Nothing similar is taking place when looking at the SECA case, although the fuel revolution has called upon the shipping business
in a war against “ecocide”. From my point of
view, this confirms the thesis of those historians saying that modern knowledge-based
societies have the ability to scrutinize themselves historically but are far away from being
guided by fruits of such analyses.
‚
Report
Waiting for SECA consequences
Photo: Visit Finland
On what the Sulphur Directive has already brought
Big bad SECA?
by Przemysław Myszka and Lena Lorenc
With the last New Year’s Eve confetti touching the ground, the 0.1% sulphur limit in ships’ fuel will
officially become the new shipping paradigm in Emission Control Areas, forcing everyone in this business to assume an attitude towards it. As a matter of fact, the new standards have been shadowing the
Baltic & North Sea ro-ro companies for a few years now.
T
he impact of the Sulphur Emission
Control Areas (SECA) regulations
event before 1st January, 2015, has
been numerous – from service closures and companies exiting the market, via
fleet renewals as well as scrubber manufacturing firms and shipyards signing massive retrofit contracts, to turning the whole Baltic area
into a technology test lab. To say that the Sulphur Directive has been high on the agenda is
to barely scratch the surface. Particularly, this
year SECA enforcement was the agenda in the
Baltic and North Seas as well as the English
Channel, not to mention North America.
Big twist
It’s fairly easy to get the feeling that the
bigger players want to take the bull by the
horns, though in various ways. Most probably Finnlines has been the most proactive
in giving the impression that the new SECA
rules will turn out to be something standing
in favour of the shipping company. This was
made clear during the latest XVIII Euro-Med
Convention of the Grimaldi Group, the majority shareholder in Finnlines. Here Emanuele Grimaldi, the CEO of both the Group
and Finnlines, highlighted the approx. EUR
100 mln scrubber investment scheme across
the company’s 14 vessels which will in turn
allow to burn Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and impose only a 10% on average increase in freight
rates, something which Finnlines’ clients
already paid during the fuel price peak several years ago. Additionally, Finnlines has the
youngest (i.e. most energy efficient) ro-ro fleet
in the Baltic, bringing fuel costs even further
down, constantly reshuffling it throughout the
company’s network to match its capacity with
demand (quite recently Finnlines sold two
of its vessels, Finnhansa and Finnarrow, precisely because of overcapacity on the market).
To move on with the scrubber programme,
Finnlines has got a portion from the pro-SECA aids granted by the Finnish government
(which, by the way, seems to be the only regime doing something in this regard, supporting the establishment of LNG terminals or
installations of compliance equipment).
The Finnish government seems to be the only
regime doing something in regard of SECA,
supporting the establishment
of LNG terminals or installations
of compliance equipment.
DFDS Seaways is another firm which has
decided to go full steam towards scrubber installation, putting around EUR 100 mln on
the table as well. The company has 21 of its
vessels queuing for retrofitting works. However, Gert Jakobsen, Vice-President at the
DFDS Group, in an interview in BTJ 2/2014,
6/2014 | Baltic Transport Journal | 21
Special
Photo: Visit Finland
Transport & environment
A threat
that transcends borders
by Lena Lorenc
Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have risen more rapidly over the first 10 years of the 21st century than
in the preceding three decades. Coupled with natural processes, they effected in altering the Earth’s energy
budget and climate change. Bearing the potential impacts of the latter in mind – increased displacement of
people, poverty and coastal flooding as well as food and water shortages – in order to apply the mitigation
measures within the 21st century, we will be required to fundamentally depart from business-as-usual.
C
limate change is a global commons
problem. According to the Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) – an update on the scientific,
technical and socio-economic aspects of this
process – total anthropogenic greenhouse gasses emissions from 2000 to 2010 were the highest in human history and in 2010 reached 49
(±4.5) gigatonnes carbon dioxide equivalents
(GtCO2eq). Despite a growing number of mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew
on average by 1.0 gigatonne CO2eq (2.2%)
per year from 2000 to 2010, compared to 0.4
GtCO2eq (1.3%) per year from 1970 to 2000.
Climate change process and its
consequences
Since 1750 the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
and nitrous oxide (N2O) have been increasing
dramatically. They exceeded the pre-industrial
concentrations by about 40%, 150%, and 20%,
respectively, and are currently at the levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
Since the 1950s, many of the observed weather have continued to shrink almost worldwide,
phenomena have been unparalleled to those ex- and Arctic sea ice and the Northern Hemiperienced over decades to millennia. Although sphere’s spring snow cover have continued to
in the past a lot of lobbying was directed at decrease in extent. The rate of the sea level rise
discrediting data behind the theory of human- since the mid-19th century has been larger than
caused global warming, it is now scientifically the mean rate during the previous two millenundisputable that man-made greenhouse gases nia; over the period of 1901-2010 the global
mean sea level has risen by 0.19 m.
are significantly adding to climate change.
These changes are of fundamental signifiAnthropogenic CO2 emissions, resulting
primarily from fossil fuel consumption, are cance to both the ecosystem and human life;
being absorbed by the global
ocean, causing its acidifica- Fig. 1. Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors (2010)
tion. Furthermore, the global
ocean continues to warm,
with heat penetrating from
the surface to deep-ocean,
affecting water’s circulation.
Due to atmospheric and the
ocean’s temperature rise, the
amounts of snow and ice have
diminished, and the sea level
has increased. Over the last
two decades the Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheets have
also been losing mass, glaciers Source: Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
6/2014 | Baltic Transport Journal | 31
Focus
Photo: Wikimedia Commons Cronus Caelestis
The future of logistics
Logistics in 2050
“He who controls the past…
by Przemysław Myszka
…controls the future,” the ingenious George Orwell wrote in 1949 in his dystopia Nineteen Eighty-Four.
“Why so serious when talking about logistics?” one could ask. Well, the answer is quite simple – the
seeds of decades to come are planted now. The choices made today concerning energy sources and their
mix, trade and consumption patterns, R&D goals and financing as well as climate change mitigation
measures, etc., will all have a profound impact worldwide.
S
ome time ago Deutsche Post DHL
geared up the Logistics 2050 report
from its ‘Delivering Tomorrow’ series. First, raw scenarios were prepared after selecting key factors shaping the
future together with conducting multiple
projections and analyses; these have in turn
been refined through brainstorming workshops, to deliver in the end a five scenario
study which paints in different colours and
moods the world in more or less 40 years’
time, with special emphasis put on implications for the transport & logistics industry.
Tab. 1. Effects of particular scenarios
Scenario 1: more, more, more!
The first possible shape of the future goes
under the title Untamed economy – impending collapse and is propelled by materialism
and consumption. More and more is carried worldwide on-board mega transporters,
chiefly vessels which enjoy shorter sailing
routes through the ice-free Arctic to a supergrid of hubs and their spokes. In 2050, Africa
is well integrated into the world economy,
which has in the meantime shifted its centre
of gravity to Asia, particularly when China
overtook the US in the early 2020s and an
Untamed
economy –
impending
collapse
World GDP development
Quantity of global flows
Environmental quality
Regulatory openness
Classic logistics growth
potential
New business perspectives
for logistics
Transformation intensity for
logistics
Megaefficiency in Customized
megacities lifestyles
Paralyzing
protectionism
Global
resilience
– local
adaptation



































Source: Deutsche Post DHL, DELIVERING TOMORROW. Logistics 2050. A scenario study.
Asia-led rival to the World Trade Organization emerged. The West struggles helplessly
with budget deficits, all the more palpable after a pension slump around 2020 hits the old
house of cards and its ageing societies hard,
unable now to compete with Asia and Latin
America, which by the way lay claim to make
the same mistakes (e.g. heavy fuel consumption) like their western counterparts.
The burgeon world trade has its price,
though. Since sustainability is a term known
only to but a few, whilst renewables have
landed in the dustbin of history, humankind
continues mindlessly to burn fossil fuels. Climate change is catastrophic, with +6°C to be
surely achieved by the end of the century. Extreme weather events are demolishing supply
chains virtually on a weekly basis. People are
6/2014 | Baltic Transport Journal | 45
Horoscope
The 2015 transport sector’s affairs uncovered
The future is written
by Przemysław ‘Nostradamus’ Myszka
We’ve journeyed across seven mountains, 77 seas and 777 terminals, fought with
deadly forklifts and wicked RTGs, answered three questions of the bridgekeeper,
diced with death (the blasted bagger still owes us a few euro) to finally find the
Lady of the Yard and the enchanted container dipped in asphalt. We’ve opened it
and the future has been unveiled before our troubled eyes. Behold, the year 2015 in a
nutshell! Empowered with this knowledge, you may throw out your business plans now1.
I
The month of the Ferry
II
The month of the Container
III
The month of the Rail
IV
The month of the Road
V
The month of the Shipyard
VI
The month of LNG
It will be a hard year, old champs, as Venus cheated on
Mars and is now in conjunction with SECA. Have hope,
however! Be bold, don’t panic and seek out others who
might help you – those born under the month of Rail
and LNG look promising, keep an eye on them.
It will be a successful year! As everybody loves boxes
we will experience new dimensions, colours and designs (an octangular one will be a smash hit in European ports this spring, trust us!). In addition, as passionate
love is always madly unfulfilled, even containers will be
shipped in containers.
Attention, lads! Road has pushed us too far during the
last couple of years and we must retaliate. Remember, no one backs off, stay in your positions! Something tells us that 2015 will be the year, like winning
the TEN-T Championship League. Everybody sings Hit
the Rail, Jack all year long, la la la.
The year of innovation. Driving with the use of hands
and feet will become so passé – thought-driven cars
is the new black, though eventually banned by the
EU after an enormous flood of car rampages involving those shilly-shallies and Chihuahuas (the so-called
2015 modal bloodbath shift, ouch!).
Successful specialisation is the new four-leaf clover in
the industry, as only reality-derailed politicians stick
to thinking about putting together so many tonnes
as Asian shipyards do. Underwater inland containerliquids-Arctic rescue submarines could be a niche (the
idea is free for taking, you’re welcome).
We’ve got a winner! It seems that LNG is on a winning
streak and more and more things will use gas for propelling. Now when we think about it, let’s power everything
with LNG! This will require a gas terminal in literally every
house. Europe will suck the US dry, “Yes, we can!”
VII
The month of the Warehouse
VIII
The month of the Logistics
IX
The month of the Infrastructure
X
The month of the Environment
XI
The month of the Port
XII
The month of the Bulk
In 2015, storage spaces will become more hi-tech secure
with CCTVs turning every lamp-post into a Christmas tree,
drones patrolling in- and outside of warehouses, vicious
lasers (party balls included), fancy eye scanning monitors
and even margarita machines in the office. Well, this or
the good old Joe sitting in his rickety hut (budget cuts).
The upcoming year will be another of tremendous logistics news, like the direct Poland-Japan rail/road/sheep/
catapult service which hit big in 2014 (extending to the
Moon in 2016). But seriously, still every penny counts,
demanding to mastermind even more sophisticated
solutions to keep hasty-feet customers by the side.
Years of complaints… It’s always infrastructure’s fault
– we’re old, too small, battered down, not built fast
enough, poorly maintained, etc. But not anymore!
TEN-T is on the way, promising a new and better John
Lennon-styled life, full of rails, roads, terminals, sunshine and rainbows!
Smoky ships off the landscape? Check! Now it’s time to
pursue new kinds of vessels, powered by less fashionable fuels, like e.g. potatoes (chips in the French edition), Brussels sprouts (as everybody hates that stuff!),
spinach (the ro-ro Popeye series) or mixed versions like
the new Triple-E (eggplant, endive and eugenia).
In 2015 every harbour will continue to be strategically located at the crossroads of everything. Instead
of sulphur dust, love is in the air! Ports will come closer
together, hang out, have a drink or two, and suddenly
– puff! – a port merger and a happy ending like in the
movies (handkerchief, anyone?)
A massive hard-core insane bulk gain formula (available both in dry and liquid forms)! Don’t waste another
year and flex your terminal’s abs during the next summer season. Satisfaction and catching the eye of every
hot bulk carrier in the area – guaranteed. Brains are
overrated, only muscles count!
Illustrations: Przemysław Myszka
Results may vary. We do not take responsibility for making tactical, strategic, dietetic or even aesthetic decisions (frankly, any decisions at all) basing upon the fictional
and out-of-the-blue ideas this page contains. Sorry!
1
54 | Baltic Transport Journal | 6/2014
Editorial
I
"It always seems impossible until it is done," Nelson Mandela
n this issue our round-up of what has happened within the BSR since its designation as
a Sulphur Emission Control Area coupled with surveys, prognoses and technical advice
for ship-owners and operators, is juxtaposed with the current state of our ecosystem's
condition as well as various R&D efforts designed to both improve it and increase
economic efficiency. A clear need for more efforts and our greater participation in decisionmaking processes regarding issues affecting our work and everyday life emerges from these reads.
While debating the pros and cons of the various sides of the 'business vs. environment' debate,
it is key to import well-balanced and far-sighted strategic planning. Without a doubt, today's
world is facing multiple crises, from economic through systemic and cultural to environmental;
and our region, interconnected with the rest of the planet, plays a part in this. Therefore,
with the coming holiday season and the promise of novelty with the approaching New Year,
we would like to wish you and us all only harmonious outcomes from these challenges. And,
additionally to resilient transport networks, energy security, reduced pollution and increased
efficiency, we wish you peace, health and love. We want to express our thanks
to the numerous experts, industry specialists, academia people and
journalists for agreeing to use our media to share their views and
knowledge with all of you. And to our partners – a big thank
you for supporting us. We're looking forward to depicting
Baltic events to you in the upcoming 2015. Meanwhile,
have a good relaxing family time and a spectacular
New Year’s Eve!
With our kindest wishes,
Anna, Przemek M., Przemek O., Danuta,
Natalia, Marek, Alison, Radek and Lena
Company index Aecom 11; Airbus 57; Akiem 50; Alfa Laval 22; Alstom 50; Austrian Agency for Alternative Propulsion Systems 49; Baltic Container Terminal Gdynia 12; Bank of Norway 57; Becker Marine Systems 35; Bloomberg 10; BSR Burke Shipping Group 58;
Cargosped 12, 22; CMA CGM 25; Color Line 22; Confederation of Finnish Industries 58; Container Terminal Saint-Petersburg 9;
Containerships 23; Copenhagen Stock Exchange 10; Cunard Line 57; Deepwater Container Terminal Gdańsk 12, 15; Destination
Gotland 23; Deutsche Post DHL 45, 47; DFDS Group 21; DFDS Seaways 12, 21, 22; DNV GL 4, 26, 27, 36, 37; Dynamic Oil Trading
(DOT) 10; Eiropas Dzelzcela Linijas 11; ERS Railways 22; EUROGATE 35; Europoort 22; Exxon Mobil 28; Finnlines 8, 10, 21, 23;
Fjord Line 23; Flensburger Schiffbau-Gesellschaft (FSG) 11; Gdynia Container Terminal 12; Green Cargo 12, 22; Grimaldi Group
10, 21; Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (HHLA) 8; Hans Langh 22; Kombiverkehr 12, 22; KPMG 58; Liquiline 23; LMG Marin 11;
Logent 12, 22; Maersk Line 25; Mann Lines 12, 22; Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 25, 27, 35; Metsä Fibre 11; Metsä
Group 11; NewOpera Aisbl 4, 5; Norden 58; Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) 8; OW Bunker 10; Pacific Basin 58; Patria Oyj
57; PCC Intermodal 12; PFA 10; PKO TFI 58; PKP Broad Gauge Metallurgical Railway Line (PKP LHS) 58; PKP CARGO 12; PKP SA
58; Polferries 10; Polish Investments for Development 12; Polskie LNG 10; Port Aalborg 39; Port Bensersiel 39; Port Brake 39;
Port Branden 39; Port Brofjorden 10; Port Brunsbüttel 39; Port Cuxhaven 39; Port Dublin 58; Port Ebeltoft 39; Port Emden 39;
Port Fredericia 39; Port Frederikshavn 39; Port Gävle 39; Port Gdańsk 8; Port Gedser 39; Port Gothenburg 35; Port Grisslehamn
39; Port Halmstad 39; Port Hamburg Marketing (HHM) 20; Port Hanko 39; Port Helgoland 39; Port Helsingborg 39, 40, 41, 43;
Port Helsingør 39; Port Helsinki 43; Port Heltermaa 11; Port Hirtshals 23, 39; Port Kaliningrad 8, 28; Port Kalundborg 23,39; Port
Kapellskär 39; Port Karlshamn 39; Port Karlskrona 22, 39; Port Kaskinen 39; Port Kemi 39; Port Kiel 39; Port Klaipėda 18, 19;
Port Køge 39; Port Kokkola 39; Port Köping 39; Port Kuivastu 39; Port Langeoog 39; Port Liepāja 39; Port Long Beach 35; Port
Lübeck 35; Port Mariehamn 39; Port Nordby 39; Port Norddeich 39; Port Nordenham 39; Port Norderney 39; Port Norrköping
39; Port Nynäshamn 23, 39; Port Odense 39; Port Oskarshamn 39; Port Oulu 39; Port Oxelösund 39; Port Parnu 39; Port Pietarsaari 39; Port Police 39; Port Pori 39; Port Puttgarden 39; Port Rauma 23, 39; Port Rautaruuki/Raahe 39; Port Rødby 39; Port
Rohukula 39; Port Rønne 39; Port Rostock 23, 40, 41, 43; Port Rotterdam 7, 25, 35; Port Sassnitz 22, 39; Port Sillamäe 39; Port
Sköldvik 39, 43; Port Spodsbjerg 39; Port St. Petersburg 10, 20, 28; Port Stade-Bützfleth/Brunshausen 39; Port Stavanger 23;
Port Stenungsund 39; Port Strömstad 39; Port Sundsvall 38, 39; Port Šventoji 18; Port Tallinn 41, 42; Port Tilbury 25; Port Umeå
12, 22, 39; Port Vaasa 12, 22; Port Varberg 39; Port Västerås 39; Port Vejle 39; Port Virtsu 39; Port Visby 39; Port Vysotsk 9; Port
Ystad 35, 39; Port Zeebrugge 25; Ports of Stockholm 35, 41, 42, 43; Preem 10, 23; PricewaterhouseCoopers 28; Rail Baltica
Statyba 11; RB Rail 11; Regina Line 12; Remontowa Shipbuilding 11; SCA Logistics 38; Scandlines 22; SeaRoad 11; Securicor
Ireland 58; Sefine Shipyard 11; Shell 47; Siem Industries 11; Sjællands Odde Ferry Port 39; Skangass 10; Stadsbacken AB 38;
Stena Line 10, 12, 22; Stena RoRo 12, 22; Sundsvall Logistikpark 38; Świnoujście LNG Terminal 24; Tallink Grupp 58; Teesport
25; Terntank 10; TransContainer 8, 12; Transfennica 22; TT-Line 22; Unifeeder 25; United European Car Carriers (UECC) 23; Unity
Line 23; Viking Line 8; Vossloh 50; Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics 25; Wärtsilä 10, 22, 52; Wasaline 12, 22,25; WesternGeco 11.
Publisher
Baltic Press sp. z o.o.
Address: ul. Pułaskiego 8
81-368 Gdynia, Poland
[email protected]
tel. +48 58 627 23 94/95
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President of the Board
BOGDAN OŁDAKOWSKI
Editor-in-Chief
LENA LORENC
[email protected]
Executive Editor
MAREK BŁUŚ
[email protected]
Features Editor
PRZEMYSŁAW MYSZKA
[email protected]
Research Editor
Natalia Struzik
Assistant Editor
radosław gadziński
English Language Editor
ALISON NISSEN
Contributing writers
GRZEGORZ BARAŃSKI, FRANCO CASTAGNETTI,
VASSILEN IOTZOV, HARTMUT KELLER,
LIESELOT MARINUS, HENNING MOHN,
REINHARD PFLIEGL, MARTA RESZKO,
MARINA RIMPO, MALTE SIEGERT,
EUGEN SPANGENBERG, HANS ANTON TVETE,
VINCENT F. VALENTINE, SABINE ZILSKI
Art Director/DTP
DANUTA SAWICKA
Head of Marketing & Sales
PRZEMYSŁAW OPŁOCKI
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ANNA DĄBROWSKA
[email protected]
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Photo: Visit Helsinki
Baltic Transport
bimonthly-daily companion
№ 6/2014 (62), NOVEMBER/DECEMBER
€ 25/99 PLN (INCL. 5% VAT)
Journal
ISSN 1733-6732
Dear Readers,
Baltic Transport Journal
Report
Waiting for SECA
consequences
Transport & environment
A threat that transcends borders
Focus
The future of logistics
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