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MONTHLY REPORT
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
∂Ri/1186/to/2015
TRADE OUTLOOK
February 2015
December Review: Better Trade Performance
q December exports climbed 7.4 percent MoM to US$ 14.6 bn, helped by
strong oil and gas exports (+11.7 percent MoM), and non oil and gas
exports (+6.6 percent MoM). Both volume and average aggregate
prices rose - up 0.9 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
q Mineral fuels (HS 27) and animal and vegetable fats (HS 15) remained
at the top of the list, and accounted for more than 28 percent of the
non oil and gas exports. Compared to the previous month, exports of
these two products fell by 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Forecast for January 2015
Exports
US$ 13.7 bn
Imports
US$ 13.6 bn
Trade Surplus
US$ 75.4 mn
Forecast for 2015
Exports
US$ 182.8 bn
Imports
US$ 180.3 bn
Trade balance
US$ 2.5 bn
DAMHURI NASUTION
Head of Economic Research
(62-21) 29555777/ 888 ext 3602
[email protected]
HANDRI THIONO
Economist
(62-21) 29555777/ 888 ext 3606
[email protected]
www.danareksa-research.com
q Shipments of Indonesia's non oil and gas export products to China
were down (-1.1 percent MoM), while non oil and gas exports to Japan
and the U.S. rose by 2.1 percent and 23.9 percent, respectively.
q Although oil and gas imports slipped 2.4 percent MoM in December,
non oil and gas imports increased by 4.5 percent. In total, imports
reached US$ 14.4 bn, or up 2.8 percent MoM. In volume terms,
December's imports jumped 16.1 percent. Average aggregate prices,
however, were 11.4 percent lower.
q By product type, imports of mechanical machinery and equipment (HS
84) were 0.5 percent lower, and electrical machinery and equipment
imports (HS 85) fell by 7.8 percent. Shipments of non oil and gas
products from China and Singapore increased by 12.2 percent and 4.6
percent, respectively. Meanwhile, imports from Japan were 0.2 percent
lower.
q By classification of use, imports of capital goods dropped 3.5 percent
while imports of raw materials and consumption goods rose 3.3
percent and 11.3 percent, respectively. For the full year of 2014,
imports of raw materials accounted for 76.4 percent of Indonesia's
total imports.
q Overall, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$ 186.8 mn in
December compared to a US$ 425.4 mn trade deficit in November. In
FY14, Indonesia's trade deficit reached US$ 1.88 bn - or lower than the
deficit of US$ 4.1 bn recorded in 2013.
TRADE OUTLOOK
Indonesia’s Exports and Imports
US$ Bn
20
4.000
18
3.000
16
2.000
14
12
1.000
10
0
8
6
(1.000)
Trade Balance (RHS)-US$ Mn
4
(2.000)
Total Export-LHS
2
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
0
Mar-11
Total Import-LHS
(3.000)
Source: BPS
2014 Full Year Exports
US$ Bn
250,0
40,0
Jan-Dec (US$ Bn)
203,5
Jan-Dec (% YoY)
190,0
200,0
30,0
182,6
176,3
157,8
150,0
20,0
137,0
116,5
114,1
10,0
100,8
100,0
85,7
0,0
71,6
57,2
61,1
50,0
(10,0)
(20,0)
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: BPS, Danareksa Research Institute
2014 Full Year Imports
US$ Bn
250,0
80,0
Jan-Dec (US$ Bn)
Jan-Dec (% YoY)
191,7 186,6
200,0
177,4
60,0
178,2
40,0
150,0
135,7
129,2
20,0
96,8
100,0
74,5
57,7
50,0
0,0
61,1
46,5
31,3
32,6
(20,0)
(40,0)
0,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BPS, Danareksa Research Institute
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
2
TRADE OUTLOOK
YoY Change in Imports
(%YoY)
100
Consumer Goods
80
Raw Materials
Capital Goods
60
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
Jan10
Jul-10
Jan11
Jul-11
Jan12
Jul-12
Jan13
Jul-13
Jan14
Jul-14
Source: BPS
January Outlook: Stable
In 2014, exports reached US$ 176.3 bn (-3.4 percent YoY), while imports totaled US$ 178.2 bn (-4.5 percent YoY). As
a result, Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of US$ 1.88 bn, or 53.7 percent lower than in the previous year. Looking
at the latest developments globally, the economic conditions of Indonesia's main trading partners appear mixed: the
U.S. economy is predicted to grow at a faster pace, while growth in other economies (China, Japan) remains lethargic.
All in all, the latest developments suggest that Indonesia's exports performance won't improve significantly in the near
term. As such, we only foresee stable trade performance in January 2015.
China
·
The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which gauges current economic conditions, increased 1.1 percent in December
to 269.3, following a 0.1 percent increase in both November and October. China's Leading Economic Index (LEI)
also increased. It rose 1.1 percent in December to 311.6, following a 0.8 percent increase in November and a 0.9
percent increase in October.
·
China's consumer inflation recorded its slowest growth in more than five years in January 2015. Headline inflation
climbed 0.8 percent on year, easing from 1.5 percent in December 2014. Falling energy prices, transportation costs
and communication costs in addition to lower prices of several basic foodstuffs lessened the pressures on prices.
·
The main gauge of China's manufacturing sector indicates that industrial sector growth contracted in January. The
official purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 49.8 from 50.1 in December. A PMI reading above 50 indicates
expansion in the manufacturing sector while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The lower PMI marks a
softening in new orders received and production output in China's industrial sector.
·
In view of the latest developments, we still expect Indonesia’s exports to China to grow moderately over the near
term.
Japan
·
Japan's CEI rose 0.6 percent in December to 98.2, after dropping 0.2 percent in November. Meanwhile, the LEI
decreased 0.2 percent to 103.2, following a 0.6 percent increase in November. These two indexes suggest a pickup
in Japanese economic activity in the near term.
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
3
TRADE OUTLOOK
·
Japanese households were more upbeat. This is reflected in the increase in the consumer confidence index, which
climbed 0.3 points to 39.1 in January 2015. Consumers were more positive on employment conditions and also
more willing to buy durable goods. A reading below 50 shows that pessimists outnumber optimists.
·
Retail sales grew at a slow pace in December. The sales of retail goods and services grew by only 0.2 percent YoY,
following 0.5 percent growth in the previous month. Weak consumer spending also led to easing pressures on
prices. After reaching 2.7 percent in November, core consumer inflation slowed further to 2.5 percent YoY in
December. Excluding the direct impact of April's consumption tax hike, the December core CPI rose only 0.5 percent,
down from 0.7 percent in November.
·
On the supply side, Japanese manufacturing activity remained stable. The final Markit/JMMA Japanese Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at a seasonally adjusted 52.2 in January, or slightly higher than December's
level of 52. New orders and new export orders grew at a faster pace.
·
The latest capital spending indicator showed positive number in December. Japan's core machinery orders rose 8.3
percent MoM, following 1.3 percent gain in November. As a leading indicator of capital spending 6-9 months
ahead, this may suggest a possible strengthening in the capital expenditures of Japan companies.
·
Against this backdrop, Indonesia’s exports to Japan are expected to remain stable going forward.
The U.S.
·
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in December to 121.1,
following a 0.4 percent increase in November, and a 0.6 percent increase in October. Furthermore, the Coincident
Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. edged up 0.2 percent in December to 111.4, following a 0.5 percent increase in
November, and a 0.3 percent increase in October. This data indicates that U.S. economic expansion should be firm
going forward.
·
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased further to 102.9 in January, from 93.1 in December.
This is its highest level since August 2007 and highlights improved sentiment toward the short-term outlook for
the economy and labor market.
·
The US inflation rate rose by 0.7 percent YoY in December eased from 1.3 percent in the previous month. This reflects
falling energy costs and a decline in consumer prices to their lowest level since October 2009.
·
The U.S. manufacturing PMI was recorded at 53.5 in January, lower from December's level 55.1. Improving economic
conditions led to higher sales, but export demand and new orders slowed.
·
Given these findings, Indonesia’s exports to the US are expected to be stable in the future.
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
4
TRADE OUTLOOK
Indonesia
·
Danareksa's CEI grew 0.33 percent MoM to 124.2 . At the same time, the LEI posted an increase of 0.31 percent MoM
to 136.9. Both indicators suggest that Indonesia's economy is currently growing at a moderate pace with faster
growth likely in the future.
·
The Indonesian economy expanded by 5.01 percent YoY in the fourth quarter of 2014. For the full year of 2014, GDP
grew by 5.02 percent compared to 5.58 percent in the previous year. Private consumption expanded 5.14 percent
and investment by 4.12 percent. Exports grew by 1.02 percent, with government spending up 1.98 percent and
imports growth reaching 2.19 percent.
·
Consumer prices unexpectedly fell in January 2015. A MoM comparison shows deflation of 0.24 percent, with YoY
inflation reaching 6.96 percent. Declines in fuel prices, combined with lower inner city transportation and air
transportation costs, underpinned the sharp declines in prices in the transportation component.
·
In January 2015, Bank Indonesia maintained its benchmark BI rate at 7.75 percent, whilst the Lending Facility rate
stood at 8.00 percent and the Deposit Facility rate at 5.75 percent. BI's rather cautious monetary policy takes into
consideration not only the expectation of relatively benign inflation but also its aim to keep the current account
deficit at a more sustainable level.
·
The rupiah remained under pressure at the start of 2015. It weakened by 1.08 percent on an average basis relative
to the US dollar, following 2.13 percent depreciation in December 2014.
·
The commodity price index - which is a measure of the prices of Indonesia's major commodity exports - slumped 3.2
percent MoM in January, after rebounding 1.83 percent in the previous month. Also in January, average global oil
prices fell another 11.1 percent MoM.
·
Against this backdrop, we expect Indonesia's imports to grow at a moderate pace over the near term
All in all, we expect Indonesia's exports to reach US$ 13.7 bn in January 2015, with imports reaching US$ 13.6 bn. As
a result, we foresee a trade surplus of US$ 75.4 mn in January 2015.
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
5
RESEARCH TEAM
Damhuri Nasution
Head of Economic Research
[email protected]
Pramayanti Meitisari
Analyst
[email protected]
Asti Suwarni
Analyst
[email protected]
Handri Thiono
Junior Economist
[email protected]
Darwin Sitorus
Economist / Database Officer
[email protected]
Yun Hariadi
Analyst
[email protected]
Natalia Daisyana
Research Assistant
[email protected]
Martin Jenkins
Editor
[email protected]
Danareksa Research Institute
Danareksa Building
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan 14
Jakarta, 10110
INDONESIA
Tel : (62-21) 29555 777 / 888 (hunting)
Fax : (62 21) 3501709
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